2009 AL All-Star Ballot

A month away from the midsummer classic, today we’ll look at my ballot for the 2009 All-Star teams. We’ll do the American League first, then tackle the NL tonight. The starter will be listed first, followed by the reserves.

Catcher: Joe Mauer (MIN), Victor Martinez (CLE), Mike Napoli (LAA)

The first two are no-brainers, and Napoli gets the edge over Posada due to quantity of playing of time.

First Base: Kevin Youkilis (BOS), Justin Morneau (MIN), Mark Teixeira (New York)

With apologies to Miguel Cabrera, Carlos Pena, and Russell Branyan. First base is just a ridiculously loaded group in the AL this year. With the game being played in an NL park, meaning no DH, they can’t carry four first baseman.

Second Base: Ian Kinsler (TEX), Dustin Pedroia (BOS), Aaron Hill (TOR)

You could really make a case for any of these three as the starter, and I wouldn’t argue with you.

Shortstop: Jason Bartlett (TB), Derek Jeter (NY), Marco Scutaro (TOR)

Bartlett is second in the AL in wOBA and playing quality defense at shortstop. Jeter will get the starting nod, of course, but you can’t really have a better two months than Bartlett just had.

Third Base: Evan Longoria (TB), Alex Rodriguez (NY), Brandon Inge (DET)

Inge is flying under the radar, but having a really, really good season. There’s no real argument for anyone besides those three.

Outfield: Ichiro Suzuki (SEA), Torii Hunter (LAA), Carl Crawford (TB), Nelson Cruz (TEX), Adam Jones (BAL), Jason Bay (BOS)

The difference in park effects pushed Ichiro ahead of Cruz for a starting job, but either choice would be fine. You could make an argument for Bay ahead of Crawford, but they’re both having fantastic years, and the starting line-up could use another LH hitter in it.

Starting Pitchers: Zack Greinke (KC), Justin Verlander (DET), Roy Halladay (TOR), Cliff Lee (CLE), Felix Hernandez (SEA), Edwin Jackson (DET), Dallas Braden (OAK)

Good luck, National League hitters. Braden is Oakland’s token rep, by the way.

Relief Pitchers: Frank Francisco (TEX), Mariano Rivera (NY), Scott Downs (TOR), Matt Thornton (CHI)

Downs and Thornton deserve some recognition for the outstanding years they’re having, and the pitching staff leans heavily to the right-hand side, so having a couple of shut down lefty relievers is a nice bonus.

Just Missed It Guy: Ben Zobrist. His positional flexibility will let him replace whoever pulls out. He deserves to go to St. Louis, and he probably will.

Final tallies by team:

Four: New York, Toronto
Three: Tampa Bay, Boston, Texas, Detroit
Two: Seattle, Cleveland, Minnesota, Los Angeles
One: Chicago, Oakland, Baltimore, Kansas City




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Dave is a co-founder of USSMariner.com and contributes to the Wall Street Journal.

72 Responses to “2009 AL All-Star Ballot”

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  1. Tom B says:

    teixeira should be the AL 1B… only slightly ahead of morneau for defense, their batting stats are essentially the same… youkilis has no right being on that list.

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    • Tom B says:

      you only have to look at BABIP to understand the difference in their batting stats

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      • aweb says:

        The allstar game, to me, isn’t about “what would normally happen given the underlying batted ball/contact rate profiles”, it’s about what actually happened. Youkilis may be having a hugely “lucky” season (.448 BABIP), but he’s actually gotten those hits. I don’t want an allstar game based on future projections, I want one based on to date performance. Others would disagree, I’m sure, but I want to see the guys who will likely never be this good again (see Bartlett, Jason) rather than the usual suspects. Mr. Cameron would seem to be in this boat as well.

        I see it as similar to the year-end awards. MVP and Cy Young awards don’t go to the guys who we project as being most likely to have a huge season again, they go to guys, often lucky for a season, who happened to have great results (got on base, drove in runs, prevented runs).

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      • twinsfan says:

        I agree completely with aweb.

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      • alskor says:

        BABIP? We’re not trying to predict future performance here. This is about what actually happened. Youkilis has been better so far, end of discussion.

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      • Tom B says:

        lucky != better

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      • B says:

        But a higher batting average, EVEN if it’s simply the product of a higher BABIP, is better.

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      • alskor says:

        Also, Youkilis has been significantly better in the field than Teixeira, not just as the plate.

        +2.6 fielding runs for Youk vs. -0.4 for Tex. Total value to date:

        Teixeira: $8.2M / 1.8 WAR
        Youkilis: $11.1M / 2.5 WAR

        This one really isnt that close, even if we adjusted for BABIP – which is a tremendously stupid approach in any case. Again, it wouldnt even matter – Adjust whatever you want and go through whatever translations you’d like… Youkilis still comes out as more valuable.

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      • Kevin S. says:

        Actually, a higher batting average is irrelevant without correspondingly higher OBP/SLG.

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      • B says:

        Thanks Kevin. Just to be perfectly clear for everyone, I was implying that a higher BABIP leads to more hits, thus a higher BA, OBP, and SLG.

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  2. Ty says:

    I suppose the only reason you placed Braden on the team is because each team needs one representative. That’s a shame too because there are numerous pitchers having better seasons, such as Weaver, Buehrle, and Saunders. The A’s really are a terrible team. Too bad Kennedy doesn’t have more ABs or I’d love to throw him on the squad.

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    • Big Oil says:

      Ty, this looks to be exactly what he did.

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    • scatterbrian says:

      I suppose you’re basing the “better seasons” on ERA? This site uses a stat called FIP, which is much more useful.

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      • B says:

        But how strong is FIP in explaining how many runs a pitcher allowed over half a season? Similar to aweb’s point above about hitters – a pitcher’s job is to prevent runs. FIP is good because it does a good job of telling us how many runs a pitcher prevented, taking luck (and factors like defense) out of the equation, but over half a season, pitchers will get lucky/unlucky and it will directly impact their teams success. Ultimately, shouldn’t we be trying to reward a player for the impact they have on their teams success? Obviously ERA has many weaknesses, including the role of defense, but so does FIP and I think when it comes to selecting All-stars based on their performance dismissing all other stats in favor of FIP is a bad approach over half a season.

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      • Kevin S. says:

        It’s different here, though – you don’t want to take luck out of the equation, necessarily, but you DO want to remove defense. It shouldn’t be held against a pitcher if the defense behind him blows. That’s something that could be looked at in combination of team UZR to figure out how much of the FIP-ERA differential is luck and how much is defense. Is it possible to sort team UZR behind a given pitcher?

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      • scatterbrian says:

        I don’t think I was saying FIP is the end-all be-all. But when I looked at numbers, it seemed like the argument for Weaver/Saunders/Buerhle over Braden was based on ERA. I’m just suggesting to look beyond ERA.

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      • B says:

        Ok my bad, I agree with what your and Kevin S’ follow-up.

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  3. Andy S says:

    Pretty good list, I agree with most of it. Still, I’m surprised to see no nod to Robinson Cano on that list. He’s been having a terrific season, and I’d argue, factoring in defense, that he’s been better than Aaron Hill and on par with Dustin Pedroia.

    Also, Dallas Braden I don’t believe should be the Oakland “token” guy, rather, Andrew Bailey has been a terrific reliever this year who could get the nod without having to be considered “token.”

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    • jw says:

      Cano better than Hill factoring in defence? Okay, I’ll bite.

      Hill: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6104&position=2B
      Cano: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3269&position=2B

      Hill, in his last three seasons that he wasn’t knocked out by a midget, has UZR/150s of 11.6 (this year), 5.3, and 24.8. Cano, on the same metric, has 5.5 (this year), -7.0, and 11.3. Going by UZR, Hill has been much better than Cano. Only in 2007 (and Hill’s injury shortened 08) has Cano’s defence been better by this metric. You’ve got an argument when it comes to fielding percentage (which voters do pay attention to) though. Perhaps because the Blue Jays aren’t covered covered extensively in the States, a lot of people don’t know quite how good Hill is defensively.

      Hill’s been better offensively this year, with an wOBA of .385 v.s. Cano’s .359. If you go by the mainstream stats for the sake of argument, their triple-slashes plus HR/RBI/R: Hill .333/.368/.519 12/37/33, Cano .303/.338/.507 9/31/35. Cano’s scored more runs but that’s obviously more of a factor of the guys hitting behind Cano hitting better than Rios and Wells since Hill gets on base more.

      They are comparable players, yes, but I can’t see any argument at this point because Hill has clearly had the better season so far. If only one of those two players makes the All-Star team this year it pretty much has to be Aaron Hill.

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      • jw says:

        (And while Hill’s BABIP is much higher than Cano’s, Hill’s LD% is 24 v.s. Cano’s 20.3. Hill’s hits haven’t been cheapies.)

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      • Derek says:

        Agreed. You could even argue to take Brian Roberts over Cano. Hill has been a monster this year. I would put him above Pedroia, but Pedroia should definetly be third.

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  4. CH says:

    I was wondering who the representative from the Tokeland A’s would be. It’s too bad their best player, Kurt Suzuki, plays a position that is already well represented. He is, in my opinion as an A’s fan, the only player on the team even worthy of consideration. I guess Braden is a solid choice if you need a lefty to pitch to 2 batters in the 6th, though.

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  5. Ian says:

    Hill’s a better defender than Cano, and he’s hit better this year as well. Other than being a Yankee, I don’t see a reason to put him in.

    I agree on Andrew Bailey as well.

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  6. Justin says:

    Seems to me that Bailey should be Oakland’s rep. He’s been what… a top 5 reliever all year.

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  7. Jeff says:

    How you put Texeria ahead of Cabrera is beyond me…. The guy struggled heavily for the entire 1st month, while Cabrera has been steadily awesome for the entire season!!!!

    If you put Cabrera in front of Arod his stats would dwarf Tex’s!!!!

    The guy has had Larish, Laird or Guillen hitting behind him for most of his at bats…

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    • Tom B says:

      teixeira has a career BA of .250 in april… he really wasnt that far off… cabrera can’t hold his jock on defense either…

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      • Jeff says:

        You just made my point…

        The All Star game is for the best players THIS SEASON, not for what thier past was!!! or Randy Johnson should be the starting pitcher…

        Texeria SUCKED for over a month, and they have only played for 2 months…

        And as to defense, CABRERA HAS BEEN BETTER THIS YEAR!!!!!

        Tex’s URZ = -0.4

        Cabby’s URZ +1.5

        The whole allstar system is jacked anyway… The AL team is filled with nothing but Yankees and Red Sox, since they just happen to have bigger fanbases…

        And then you got people like yourself that look at past performance instead of what they did the 1st 2 or 3 months that year!!!

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      • Teej says:

        The All Star game is for the best players THIS SEASON, not for what thier past was!!!

        That’s how YOU vote, but that’s not a rule. People vote for who they want to see, who they think is a star, and that’s not always the player who had the best two-month run.

        And as to defense, CABRERA HAS BEEN BETTER THIS YEAR!!!!!

        Two months of UZR data means close to nothing. Teixeira is an elite defender. Cabrera has been below average at every position he’s played for his whole career.

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      • Tom B says:

        cabrera has a better BA than tex, that’s it…

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      • alskor says:

        Cabrera has been a much better defender than Teixeira to date.

        3.5 UZR/150 vs. -0.6.

        Obviously that’s an aberration of sorts, and you would expert Tex to pass Cabrera (although a case could be made, since Cabrera is spending his first full year at 1B and was switched their during the season last year… maybe he IS a good defensive 1B?). STILL, what are we doing here? If youre not going to give Cabrera credit for actually playing better than Tex in the field so far… well, why not fill out your All Star ballot in March? Its the same as a guy batting .400 for the first two months. What are we going to do? NOT vote him to the ASG because we know he’s not a legit .400 hitter? That’s silly.

        Cabrera and Morneau have both been better than Teixeira. Teixeira really doesnt belong on the All Star Team, all things considered, but its not a huge stretch and wouldnt be a big deal if he made it over Miggy or Morneau. He is pretty close to them in value this year… whereas Youk is a decent stretch ahead of all of them and clearly deserves to start.

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      • Jeff says:

        The last guy to post understands…

        By using some of you other peoples logic, a guy that is a lifetime .240 hitter who ends up hitting .400 for the 1st 3 months doesnt deserve to be in the ASG because its a fluke????
        That is just DUMB!!!

        The ASG should be for WHAT YOU HAVE DONE SO FAR…

        And so far Cabrera has had better defense than Tex…

        And sure Tex has more homers but he is hitting in A FREAKING LITTLE LEAGUE STADIUM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

        Bring in the left field wall at Comerica about 50 feet and point a giant fan blowing towards it and Cabrera would have 16 too!!!

        And as for Cabrera being bad at defense… Do you people not remember that he was a 3RD BASEMAN???? True he wasnt great at 1st last year since he was playing 1st for the FIRST TIME IN HIS LIFE! BUT how do you figure he wont be a good 1b??? Usually when a guy moves down the defensive spectrum his defensive metrics improve…

        Cabrera looked VERY uncomfortable at 1st last year, but looks better and better there everyday this season..

        If I had to bet money, I think he finishes as an above average defender at first this season, and even better next year…

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      • Jeff says:

        Maybe we should just use one of the projection systems stats to pick the all star game players…

        Some of you act like actual RESULTS dont matter… yeah i can understand downgrading a guy some if his BABIP is way high, but should what actually happened so far on the field be what counts????

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      • Teej says:

        By using some of you other peoples logic, a guy that is a lifetime .240 hitter who ends up hitting .400 for the 1st 3 months doesnt deserve to be in the ASG because its a fluke????

        I absolutely believe that. Personally, I don’t think one-third of one season is enough to get you to the All-Star Game. That’s my opinion, but unlike you, I’m not pretending that it is the law.

        That is just DUMB!!!

        Oh. Never mind then.

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      • John L. says:

        “The ASG should be for WHAT YOU HAVE DONE SO FAR…”

        No, it should be for the players you most want to see represent their league whatever the rationale. If you want Miggy because he’s got the numbers and I want Tex because he makes me question my sexuality, we’re just going to have to agree to disagree. There is no wrong way to fill out a ballot.

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      • alskor says:

        Well, then John L, I dont understand why youre posting here… because clearly you made up your mind what players “deserve” to be in the game regardless of performance and have no interest discussing their relative merits.

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      • John L. says:

        Debating merit is one thing. Debating methodology is another. Jeff uses year-to-date stats. Teej likes to take past data into account. Who’s to argue with either one?

        Everyone has their own criteria. The only people to whom there is a right and wrong way of filling out a ballot are the ones who take the voting way too seriously.

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      • alskor says:

        Your “methodology” seems to be “merit doesnt matter.”

        I dont care if people want to vote their favorites – that’s a legit position to take. Others here (not you) have tried to advance their favorites and legitimize their decision by claiming superior performance when there is no basis for that claim. I dont care if youre going to be a big homer and vote your favorite player, but dont try to defend it by saying Teixeira has played better than Player X when that clearly isnt true. That’s just BS.

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      • Jeff says:

        I still cant understand, how even if you are using past performance instead of year to date stats as your basis for voting, that Tex deserves it more than Cabrera…

        I think Cabrera is the better player this year or in the past…

        Sure Tex always has the huge RBI numbers over Cabrera, but isn’t evaluating a players performance based on RBI’s one of the things that sparked the whole “statistical revolution”.

        Put Cabrera in Arrlington in the same lineup Tex was in and he equals or surpasses Tex’s numbers…

        And now put him in that Little League park in NY and he equals Tex’s homer numbers…. I can recall 5 different balls this season that Cabrera hit that were caught on the warning track in right-center at Comerica that would have been 10 rows back at Yankee Stadium…

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      • John L. says:

        There actually is a legitimate argument to be made for Teixeira from the PrOPS standpoint where he’s currently smoking both Cabrera and Morneau. In a matter of actual vs. expected, I don’t think you can really argue with either thought process.

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      • John L. says:

        I don’t know, Jeff. I’m looking at Cabrera’s hit chart right now and I fail to see these five warning track fly outs that you’re referring to.

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      • John L. says:

        Also the Little League stadium theory barely even applies to Teixeira so far. He only has two cheap shots at home and one was an immensely wind-aided shot to left that had nothing to do with favorable dimensions. The other one though, yes, was fully 100% attributable to the short porch in right. If you want to adjust his home runs to a neutral park you can take away that one but that’s it.

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  8. scatterbrian says:

    Roberts would go ahead of Cano, but 2B is mighty deep.

    As for Oakland, I agree on Bailey, possibly Michael Wuertz. Even Josh Outman could pitch his way ahead of Braden. Yeesh, that was hard to write.

    Maddon will probably just go the safe route and pick Holliday.

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  9. Harry says:

    Read the comments would appreciate some help

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    • scatterbrian says:

      pointless…

      you can point out Howards L/R splits the last three years, showing a nice decline, but that still won’t convince some people bent on the mystique of an MVP or WS champ or whatever. PR should not be a consideration when trying to win a baseball game.

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  10. Chris says:

    I’d say there could be an argument made for Michael Young at third base.

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    • Kevin S. says:

      Perhaps, but it’s defeated if you consider defense in any way, shape, or form. He’s currently sixth among AL 3B in WAR, and that group doesn’t even include A-Rod, who’s only been back for, what, three weeks?

      By the way, how insane is it that Joe Mauer’s third among AL position players in WAR, despite only having played one of the two months?

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      • Chris says:

        And defense is the exact reason I didn’t actually post any numbers to prove why Young (maybe) should be on there. Young’s been very good offensively this season, but Inge has been no slouch either. But once you factor in defense, it’s not even close because Inge is a much much much better defender than Michael Young ever wishes he could be.

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      • einstein says:

        and you’ve just proven you haven’t seen a single ranger game and have relied entirely on your garbage defensive stats.

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      • Kevin S. says:

        Stats that paint player on my favorite team in a bad light = garbage? OK, got it.

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      • Chris says:

        I think you’re the one who has just proven they’ve never seen a single Ranger game if you honestly think Michael Young isn’t awful defensively.

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  11. Wally says:

    Matt Holliday wouldn’t be a terrible pick either. His WAR ranks 10th among AL OFers, and he was damn good last year (5th in MLB among OF in WAR), which I think should be considered in the All-star game. It isn’t just for 1st half performance, but last year’s as well.

    So, seems to me Holliday, Braden, or Bailey wouldn’t be horrible token picks. Though I agree the edge should go to Bailey. Particularly sense the All-star teams end up needing a lot of relievers.

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  12. Derek says:

    Good Post Thanks. The only thing I can see that should be changed is taking Braden off and putting Bailey on. He has been great this year. Braden just doesn’t deserve it at all, there are so many other starting pitchers that deserve a spot.

    And to open up a relief spot, as much as I hate to say it, take Mariano off. He is the best of all time, but his numbers just aren’t as good as some others and he just hasn’t been as dominating as in the past. I just feel like if you send him to St. Louis this year you should have sent him every year prior and every year after. He is amazing but give someone else a shot.

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  13. Michael says:

    “By using some of you other peoples logic, a guy that is a lifetime .240 hitter who ends up hitting .400 for the 1st 3 months doesnt deserve to be in the ASG because its a fluke????
    That is just DUMB!!!”

    So I assume you would advocate a system where a certain set of stats are decided upon and whichever player has the best stats at each position is automatically the starter, thus eliminating the voting process entirely? That sounds like loads of fun. Maybe you want to watch Marco Scutaro and Scott Hairston in the All-Star Game, most of us don’t. We’re not talking about end of the year awards here, it’s an exhibition game. And even from an “it really matters” standpoint, again you want the guy with proven ability/track record than a guy who had a hot two months playing for your team’s league.

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    • Kevin S. says:

      Actually, just plugging guys into an ASG roster based on WAR would be an awesome way to do things, but that’s just me. Hang on, I need to leave the basement for a bite of mom’s meatloaf.

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    • Bob says:

      Why wouldn’t you want to watch Scutaro? The guy is playing great, getting on base lots, and is a terrific defender.

      I, for one, DON’T want to watch someone like Jeter start just because he has a name that everyone recognizes from 6 or 7 years ago. All-Star Games are for the best players at their position – Jeter is good, yes, but he’s definitely not the best.

      And no game can “really matter” when fans (most of whom vote on name recognition) decide who plays and who doesn’t. If you want it to matter, include a much heavier weighting to the MLB players, coaches and management – the people who actually understand fully what a player does on the field and how difficult/easy it is.

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    • alskor says:

      I would rather have Scutaro over Jeter just because, as an AL fan, I want us to win…

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      • Michael says:

        Are these the only two options? I managed to find a young, exciting player with good (not great) numbers to vote for: Elvis Andrus.

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  14. Dustin says:

    I’m thinking that Braden should be scratched from this, and the rotation spot given to Erik Bedard.

    Oakland’s token player should Andrew Bailey.

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  15. Brent says:

    Love the new “Holy Trinity” at short this year.

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  16. Lukw says:

    people are arguing over pics and were only two months into the season. What happens if Aaron Hill falls off (he hasn’t hit as good for the last couple weeks), or if Texeira keeps hitting as good as he did in May, then he is a shoe in. Bartlett has been injured, what if he comes back and sucks?

    This whole blog leaves a big what if, how about who deserves to be there in July. I think it will change a lot between now and then. The fans will vote for who they like, because they want to see the stars in the game. I hope Ortiz makes it with his pathetic swing just b/c people want to see there hero with a chance to play with the other heroes.

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  17. LantermanC says:

    Not to be picky, but Branyan, Ichiro, and Felix make up 3 Mariners not 2.
    Great article otherwise though Dave.

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  18. Paul says:

    Why Cliff Lee? Yeah he has the 3.16 ERA but he also has 6 losses, why not Jared Weaver (4-2, 2.36 ERA), Eric Beddard (4-2, 2.37 ERA) or Mark Buehrle (6-1 2.71 ERA). Is Lee really a better choice for this years All-Star Game then they are?

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    • Chris says:

      Lee’s FIP is much better than the three of them. And though it may look nice to have a nice win-loss record, they’re fairly irrelevant statistics as a poor pitcher can sometimes win many games, and a good pitcher can sometimes lose many.

      Good example of this would be Paul Abbott in 2001. He had a 17-4 record. Looks nice on the outside, right? Yeah, until you look at his mediocre ERA of 4.25 and his poor 5.01 FIP, to go along with some pretty poor ratios.

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      • Kevin S. says:

        Or, if you want to go into the debate that causes more stat-oriented guys to lose brain cells from bashing their heads against walls, Blyleven v. Morris.

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      • Paul says:

        I just don’t get putting value in one stat. Sure Lee has allowed less Homeruns then those people which is why is FIP is lower. But his ERA and WHIP is higher. So it just means he gives up more runs other ways than they do.

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  19. Jefferson says:

    Good Choses

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  20. Justin says:

    “This time it counts”
    Put Bartlett over Jeter

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