2009 MLB Trade Value: #15-#11

Continuing on with the trade value series.

#15: Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Colorado: 1.8 WAR

It’s been an up and down couple of years for the Rockies shortstop, but the future is bright indeed. He’s added walks and more power this year, rounding out his offensive game and giving him the tools to be a significant offensive threat. And he’s still an above average defensive shortstop, just 24 years of age, and signed to a contract that is so team friendly he should probably fire his agent.

#14: Matt Kemp, CF, Los Angeles: 4.1 WAR

The prototypical five tool player, Kemp has increased his walk rate each of the last two years without harming his core skills, making him a well rounded offensive threat. He’s also among the league leaders in UZR in center field this year, showing above average range and a cannon arm. He won’t turn 25 until September, and he’s just entering his arbitrtation years. Yeah, this is one valuable player.

#13: Dan Haren, RHP, Arizona: 4.3 WAR

Defying normal trends, his strikeout has risen every year since he reached the majors. He’s gone from a strike-throwing mid-rotation guy to a legitimate ace, and the contract extension he signed with Arizona will keep him drastically underpaid for at least the next three years.

#12: Grady Sizemore, CF, Cleveland: 0.8 WAR

He’s kind of the posterboy for the new school kind of player. He walks, hits for power, plays quality defense at a premium position, and uses his speed to steal bases at a high rate of success. The low batting average, mostly due to high strikeout totals, doesn’t limit his perceived value as much as it would have 30 years ago. He’s also locked up through 2012 at rates low enough to be considered thievery.

#11: Zack Greinke, RHP, Kansas City: 5.8 WAR

Dayton Moore has made a lot of mistakes, but signing Greinke to an extension before the season started probably saved his franchise $50+ million. He’s having a silly season at age 25, and is the runaway leader for the Cy Young award. He won’t be cashing in on his success until after the 2012 season, however, when his newly minted contract finally expires. Whoops.




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Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.


101 Responses to “2009 MLB Trade Value: #15-#11”

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  1. YC says:

    So this means Lincecum will be the only pitcher in the Top 10. Interesting.

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  2. Chris says:

    Seeing Greinke on this list reminded me of how Dayton Moore almost traded him for Francoeur not too long ago.

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    • Alex says:

      No, he didn’t. Francoeur may have been part of a deal that was discussed for Grienke, but he wasn’t the only piece and the deal was never even seriously considered.

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    • ecp says:

      Oh, for heavens sake, will people let go of the Greinke-for-Francoeur nonsense? IT WAS NEVER DISCUSSED. NEVER. NOT ONCE.

      Frank Wren has said many times that Dayton Moore never spoke to him about Francoeur. Ever. Not this past December, never previously. The rumor was started by a Boston sportwriter who didn’t have a clue what he was talking about.

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      • Judy says:

        Remember if it was Nick Cafardo? Because he seems to make up stuff just like that all the time.

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      • Tom B says:

        isn’t that a job requirement to write in boston?

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      • ecp says:

        I don’t remember the name, but I do remember it was not Nick Carfado.

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      • Joe R says:

        Yes it is, Tom B.
        Irrational hatred of Theo Epstein is another thanks to his GMing turning all of them from “top” writers to hacks in a nanosecond.

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  3. Alex says:

    One problem with Tulo, and its a fairly large one…he can void the remainder of his contract if he’s traded, so yeah that kind of kills any value his insanely discounted contract would give him on the trade market.

    Besides, I’m not quite sure what would make Tulo so much more valuable than someone like Yunel Escobar. Yunel will earn far less than Tulo through 2013 and Tulo’s 2014 option is for a not that cheap 15 million. Throw in the fact that Tulo only has one season that was significantly better than what Yunel has done and that a lot of his value that year stemmed from what appears to have been a huge outlier in terms of defensive value (+14.9 compared to -4.2 for the rest of his career) and I don’t get how Tulo cracks the top 25 and Yunel doesn’t even register in the honorable mentions.

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    • David A says:

      I was also wondering why Yunel hasn’t shown up on this list. Granted, there are probably some questions about Yunel’s D, but probably no more so than with Tulowitzki.

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      • Alex says:

        The only thing I can think of is maybe Dave thought Yunel was going to be arb eligible this offseason instead of after 2010. It really doesn’t make any sense as Yunel isn’t that much worse that Tulo and is likely to earn in the neighborhood of 10 million less over the next 4 years.

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      • Scott says:

        Yunel’s defense pales in comparison to Tulo’s. Tulo’s best was 2006, 14.9, this year he is 0.7. Yunel’s best was 07, 1.7, this year he is -4.4. So, Tulo’s high UZR is 14.2 higher than Yunel’s; Tulo’s low UZR is 5.1 better than Yunel’s.

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      • Alex says:

        Sure, pin everything on the clear outlier season and make stuff up about their worst seasons and its easy to make a case. Tulo’s low isn’t 5.1 runs better than Yunel’s, as Tulo posted a -0.2 last year and a -4.6 in limited action as a rookie. Also, Yunel has been hampered by lingering abdominal and hip flexor injuries this year which have clearly affected his range. I’ll give you Tulo is almost certainly the better defender, but its not enough to make up for Yunel’s advantage at the plate and the 40+ spot difference between the two on the list.

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      • Derek says:

        I agree with Scott. Yunel’s defense is good but Tulo’s is just out of this world good. He can get to balls that he has no business getting to. His UZR will get better as he gets older and gets used to playing everyday.

        No offense to Yunel, Tulo is just really really good.

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    • Alex says:

      obviously that should be top 15 not top 25.

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      • scott says:

        Are there not serious questions about Yunel’s motivation to play the game, as well? Seems like he’s been on Cox’s/the Braves’ doghouse for the last calendar year. Obviously that can change when he realizes it might be the difference between a 4/20 year deal and a 5/60, but I don’t really think he even comes close to Tulo’s value with the bat regardless of his attitude issues.

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      • Alex says:

        It has nothing to do with motivation to play the game. The questions were about lapses in concentration that led to mental errors. Yeah, he got benched for a few games after he got way more upset than he should of about being given an error on a questionable play, but I don’t think that in anyway brings into question his motivation to play the game.

        And where in the world would you get the idea that Yunel doesn’t even come close to Tulo’s value with the bat? Yunel’s bat has been worth more than Tulo’s every year he has been in the majors (including 2007 when he played over 60 fewer games). Over their careers Yunel’s bat has been worth 26.5 runs more than Tulo’s. Seriously, do you have any reason for that opinion?

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      • scott says:

        Tulo has posted high ISO than Escobar his entire career and probably will continute to do so. I’d take his bat and glove over Escobar’s at this point through their careers.

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      • scott says:

        This also has nothing to do with the rankings…I could really care less where Yunel or Tulo fall, but I think there’s more merit to putting Tulo here than Yunel, FWIW. Regardless or arb eligibility, ability to opt out of contracts, etc, I’d rather have Tulo’s past ability with the glove (assuming it wasn’t a fluke) coupled with a 20+ HR bat.

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      • B says:

        Tulo’s career wOBA: .340
        Yunels career wOBA: .349

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      • Alex says:

        Of course Tulo has a higher ISO and he should considering he plays his home games in Coors field. Yunel basically beats him every single other important offensive category. Can’t you just admit you were wrong when you said “I don’t really think he even comes close to Tulo’s value with the bat,” as opposed to trying to change the subject? You don’t even have to admit that Yunel is better (even though he is), just that you were wrong to act like Tulo had some big advantage.

        And no one was arguing that Yunel should be up here. I wasn’t even arguing he should be on the list. The point is there is no reasonable argument for Tulo being #15 on this list when a very comparable player doesn’t even crack the top 55.

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      • scott says:

        You’re right, but I don’t think Yunel hits 20 home runs playing in Coors.

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      • Alex says:

        Maybe not, but I’m not so sure. He has hit 8 in just 74 games this year, which would project out to 17 or 18 over a full season, and that’s in a fairly neutral park. Either way, its not all that relevant as the other things that Yunel does well more than make up for Tulo’s advantage in power.

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  4. mattsd says:

    Isn’t Kemp arb eligible after this season, not next?

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  5. pm says:

    Tulowitzki at 15 is terrible. No way he is better than Ryan Zimmerman. he had 1 great season (2007), but Zimmerman crushes him in career WAR and Zimmerman is younger.

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    • Alex says:

      Seriously, I was all over Strasburg’s ranking, but this one takes the cake. I just don’t see anyway you can defend this ranking. Maybe if you legitimately thought Tulo was a +10 run defensive SS going forward, but outside of his 2007 performance he hasn’t even been average in that category.

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    • Wrighteous says:

      in fairness, tulo plays a premium defense position. id rather take zimm on my team, but he plays 3rd base, and offensively speaking, there are a ton of great hitters you could place at that spot whereas at SS you are looking at a more select group

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      • Alex says:

        Right, except for the fact that none of those guys could field 3B as well as Zimmerman could. You could place a lot of good offensive guys at SS too, but they just wouldn’t be good at it. The same thing applies at 3B, where Zimmerman’s defense is far more elite than Tulo’s at SS.

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      • Tom B says:

        this is about who is more trade-able, and more valuable in trade… not who is better. zimmerman’s contract puts him exactly where he was on this list. he’s cheap, but not a bargain by any means.

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      • scott says:

        Whoever was doing color for the Cubs radio broadcast (Santo is…I don’t know…sick?) said yesterday “Zimmerman has had a great year with the bat, but is really struggling with his defense.” This coupled with Joe Buck saying during the ASG that Brad Hawpe was an “excellent defensive right fielder” really just shows that this world is in the dark ages – still – when it comes to defensive evaluation.

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      • Alex says:

        Well that’s something I think we can all agree on.

        Maybe someday…

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      • JonnyBS says:

        If we are talking about who is worth more in trade, then shouldn’t we take into account of the fact that Tulowitzki can void his contract if he’s traded during the length of the contract? Shouldn’t that make Zimmerman worth more in terms of trade value?

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    • Sky says:

      And contract…?

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      • Alex says:

        Well Zimmerman has been worth over 12.5 million more over the past 2.5 seasons, which probably makes up for Tulo earning about 14 million less over the next 4 years.

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  6. Chris says:

    Colorado would trade Tulo for Rasmus.

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    • Rox Girl says:

      So we could have two center fielders and no shortstops? Yes, this statement makes perfect sense to me.

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    • Chris says:

      No, they wouldn’t. That is a ridiculous thing to suggest given the fact that Colorado already have their CFer of the future in Fowler.

      And to note, no I’m not replying to myself.

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      • Joe R says:

        Well to be fair, he DID have a .394 OBP in the minors, and a .362 in 2009. His defense needs work if he’ll be anything but a decent player, though.

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  7. Jsess says:

    Longo is gonna be #1

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  8. Slick says:

    Kemp at #14…Let the outrage begin! JoeR, Mo Wang…where are you guys??

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  9. Brad says:

    The Tulo ranking is completely out of whack. I agree that the Strasburg ranking was odd because we lack information, but with Tulo we have plenty of information and it all suggests he is not one of the top 15 most untradeable players. Alex, I think you comparison to Yunel is taking away from the bigger issue- that neither one of them belongs this high. There is no way I trade any of the 10 players behind him for Tulo, and I honestly wouldn’t even give it much serious thought. His numbers away from Coors field are so ordinary (.721 OPS this year, .720 career) that I am positive he wouldn’t have cracked this list had his offensive numbers not been inflated by the light air of Denver. Certainly defense has always been an asset for him, but the 15th most valuable player in all of baseball? Really? Its not even close.

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    • Alex says:

      I will freely admit that Yunel doesn’t belong this high. I don’t even know if he really deserves a spot in the top 50. My point was simply that there is no way you can justify Tulo at 15 when Yunel doesn’t even crack your top 55. They have somewhat similar values, play the same position, and have comparable contract situations, yet one is #15 and one isn’t in the top 55. I’d rather compare apples to apples and say one isn’t that much better than the other, as opposed to comparing apples to oranges and arguing specifically about which one is better.

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      • scott says:

        That is all true and I agree with you.

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      • Rox Girl says:

        One is also not yet 25, and the other not yet 27, one also has middle of the order power, the other does not. One will stay at shortstop for the next four years, one will probably have to move in that time span or cost the team. Sure, compare apples to apples, but I think your comparison’s missing some key points, namely that one apple looks more likely to stay tasty quite a bit longer than the other. Clearly we both have our biases in this, but I doubt any neutral party wanting to build a team takes Yunel over Tulo if given the choice, and Dayton Moore doesn’t count.

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      • Brad says:

        The age doesn’t make a difference when talking about their current contracts, so the fact that Yunel is two years older really doesn’t matter. Netiher one of them is going to decline during their current contracts.

        But Rox, you miss my point- and I have absolutely no bias when it comes to Tulo- but how can you possibly argue he is one of the 15 most valuable players in baseball? Look at his offensive production away from Coors, look at what happens to other Rockies hitters when they leave Colorado, and tell me you honestly believe he is this valuable? Its simply not backed by any realistic expectations at this point.

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      • Alex says:

        No one said that they’d take Yunel over Tulo, just that Tulo isn’t so much better as to deserve his lofty ranking on this list. I’m a Braves fan and I’d have no problem dealing Yunel for Tulo.

        Tulo may have middle of the order power, but he doesn’t have a middle of the order bat. At this point, he barely even has an above league average bat. Besides, why would you act like power is all that matters? I mean, Yunel appears to have a #2 hitter bat, which I would argue Tulo doesn’t.

        And what basis is there to say that Yunel will likely have to move off of SS over the next few years? He doesn’t rely on range to begin with, so losing some quickness shouldn’t hurt him that bad. He was voted #3 in the Fielding Bible rankings just last year among SS. His defensive numbers this year don’t look great, but there is a huge amount of variation in UZR and we have a tangible explanation for the drop with the injuries that Yunel has been dealing with since early in the year.

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      • Joe R says:

        For a 2nd reference, baseball prospectus absolutely pines over Tulo’s D (48 FRAA, 114 rate). A lot less shimmering for his offense, though, with a .262 EqA (about average).

        He’s good for now, but he’ll get pricey soon, and most guys whose calling card is defense don’t stay on top as long.

        /waits for Ozzie Smith or Dave Concepcion reference.

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      • scott says:

        Then you also can’t be so quick to disregard Tulo’s 2007 defensive abilities as a fluke, given that his injuries directly effected his defense, right? If you use it for Yunel as an explanation for decreased range, surely an injury that hurt Tulo for over two months in what’s beginning to look like a lost year.

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      • Alex says:

        Except of course that his defense still hasn’t recovered to its 2007 level this season. If he’s still being affected by the same injury at this point, then maybe we should consider that its something he’ll never fully recover from.

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      • scott says:

        Then I guess the same thing can be said for Yunel, as his UZR/150 is -7.1 and Tulo’s is 0.8 at least. That’s a pretty big gap.

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      • Alex says:

        Not sure I get your point…no one has argued that Escobar is the better defender, I was simply arguing against the point that Yunel will likely have to move off of the position just because his UZR isn’t great this year. Are you trying to argue that we should worry that Yunel’s injuries from this year might affect him in the future because they’re affecting him this year? The point with Tulo is that you can’t still be blaming injuries that occurred last season for his defense still not returning to its 2007 level this season.

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      • scott says:

        I’m saying it’s hard to knock Tulo down the pegs you are, citing that his defense hasn’t returned to it’s previous levels when he’s still in positive UZR, while saying that Yunels injures have limited his range as somewhat of an excuse for his defensive shortcomings.

        I’m not a doctor, but I would guess that injuries have a lingering effect for quite some time.

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      • Alex says:

        I’m not knocking Tulo for his defense though. I’m simply stating it doesn’t appear like the +15 run defense he played in 2007 is at all sustainable for him. There is a 184 game sample size over the last 2 seasons that seems to point to that fact.

        With Yunel, I’m saying its premature to write off his ability to play SS due to a 74 game sample size where he has clearly been hampered by injuries. If we get into next season and he’s still struggling then I’ll start worrying about it, but for now I’m perfectly willing to write off much of his decline this season to the strained abdominal muscle and strained hip flexor he’s been dealing with.

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  10. Joe R says:

    The only thing outrageous on this page is that you still suck at posting anything that involves investing time for any reason but amusement.

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    • Slick says:

      Heaven forbid that this board has some relief for the boredom of repetitous stats and numbers.

      I did expect Kemp to be higher though afterall he is the #1 CF this year.

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      • Joe R says:

        He’s about to hit his arb years and get expensive, you are the king of dumbassery.

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      • Slick says:

        Your smack talk need work. Stick to what you know; that is boring us with nauseating numbers of how you are right about everything.

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      • Joe R says:

        Not everything, just more often than you.

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    • Teej says:

      What

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      • Joe R says:

        Slick’s butthurt over people criticizing Torre and has led to his e-mission to hate on Matt Kemp.

        http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/please-move-matt-kemp-up

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      • Slick says:

        You clearly didn’t hear what I was saying. I completely understand Kemp’s value to his team or any team. What I was saying was that I have no problem with Torre burying him in the Dodgers lineup because I have faith in managers with winning credentials and that they know what they are doing. I don’t hate Matt Kemp. I just don’t like when a player is judged on what he might potentially do in different spot in the order or what he might do in the following years based on his stats from previous years. Its proven time and time again that regression or progression do not follow linear paths. Just like this year, no one predicted David Wright wouldn’t be able to hit HRs like he has before or no one predicted Jimmy Rollins would get caught in a half season slump. But I am sure everyone and their dog were predicting a progression or at least on par with how they performed last year.

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  11. Bodhizefa says:

    Your admiration for Tulowitzki has gone on for far too long now Dave, and I think it’s time for an intervention! He’s not showing himself to be the super stalwart defender you thought he was, and there are a boatload of names before him on the list that I’m sure the Rockies would gladly accept for him. And they would be smart to take those offers, too.

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  12. B says:

    I’m surprised Haren’s as high as he is. Sure he’s really, really good and his contract is a good value, but he will be making quite a bit more than most other players this high. Almost $50M over the next 4 years.

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    • Joe R says:

      True, but Haren’s so good, it’s hard to imagine any team in the $70-$80 mil / yr+ payroll category wouldn’t want him.

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    • OneManWreckingMachine says:

      Credit goes to dextermorgan of NorthSideBaseball, as he put it best:

      “Why isn’t he getting more attention? He’s having an unbelievable season and has been by far the best pitcher in baseball this year.

      138 IP
      93 H
      18 BB
      137 K
      12 HR
      1.96 ERA
      .80 WHIP

      A few more K’s and he’d be in Pedro-in-his-prime territory. Carrying a .80 WHIP this late into the season is ridiculous.”

      That’s just too good a season.

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  13. LD4387 says:

    So the Rockies wouldn’t trade Troy Tulowitzki for Clayton Kershaw, straight up?

    Doubtful.

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    • David A says:

      Dodgers wouldn’t TAKE Tulowitzki for Kershaw.

      Tu-lo is ranked Tu-hi!

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      • Joe R says:

        This IS Coletti we’re talking about here.
        He’d be more apt to take Helton for Kershaw than Tulo.

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      • Rox Girl says:

        I think it’s a mutually unpalatable trade…

        Frankly, as talented as Kershaw is, I would be pretty upset with the Rockies if they made that deal just because there’s still a pretty large unknown risk with him. I will admit that there are pitchers ranked below Tulo, such as Verlander or King Felix that I would probably flip Tulowitzki for if given the reins of the team, but not nearly as many of these players as people who are saying he’s overrated and should be below. Given his contract and value, I wouldn’t trade him for any of the position players ranked below him, for instance, not Rasmus, not Zimmerman, not B.J. Upton, although Zimm’s probably a tough decision.

        A 24 year old shortstop with the capacity of being a tremendous plus on defense that’s hit .268/.340/.446 over his career (this is throwing out his Coors Field, PETCO and Dodger Stadium stats, I don’t see any problem with this as people seem to be okay arbitrarily throwing the one stadium’s numbers out, why not add a couple more…) would certainly be valuable. That ISO number in particular added to what looks to me to be some pretty bad luck with BABIP over the last two seasons (ZiPS projects .305 vs. the .277 he’s had thus far) says to me that while he may be overrated by Cameron by a little, he’s being underrated by you guys by quite a bit more than that.

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  14. Joe says:

    Tulo just isn’t the same class as the other players. He had one good season and regressed since. He has shown he can be a star but the last two years he hasn’t been. There is no way he should be #15.

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    • Slick says:

      Regressed only because of an injury. Sheesh this is a tough crowd!

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    • Teej says:

      Even with his average UZR score, Tulo’s on pace to be a 3.5-win player this year. Factor in the great contract and you have a highly valuable player. There might be a player or two ranked below him on this list who I would trade him for, but my goodness is he underrated by a lot of commenters. He doesn’t have to be the 2007 Troy Tulowitzki to be incredible valuable.

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      • Joe says:

        i agree he is valuable, but #15? look at the players before and after
        also his home/away split should factor in

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  15. drew says:

    I think its worth noting that Kemp bats .276 /.317/.448 for his career vs RHP. Kemps very valuable right now…. but I think he’s going to be platoon specialist before the age of 30

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    • Isaac says:

      For starters, his career split against right handers is .281/.325/.449, via YahooSports, which coupled with his defense makes for a decent every day center fielder. That line isn’t poor enough to platoon him, and seeing how he is improving each season it’s likely that his performance against same handed pitching will only improve.

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    • Matthew says:

      every year matt kemp has improved against right handeed pitching

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    • Joe R says:

      He’s .296/.348/.452 in 2009, a split OPS+ of 122.
      He’s obviously much more ordinary vs. righties as an .800 OPS is kind of meh, but it’s good enough as long as he continues playing defense.

      You are right that it’s a possible concern when he hits 30, but he can always pull a Torii Hunter and blow through every projection.

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    • DavidCEisen says:

      Just a note on Tulo. He has historically been a strong second half player: http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=3531&position=SS&page=8&type=full (second graph)

      He has also been playing better as this season progresses: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/tulowitzkis-revival

      I’m not sure he deserves to be this high up, but an argument can be made that he does.

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  16. John H says:

    Isn’t it entirely possible – even likely – that Tulo’s perceived value in the marketplace is far higher than that of Escobar’s? Not sure if Dave factored this into his rankings, but seems like it would be a part of the analysis as well.

    Very difficult to measure – perhaps impossible – but can be estimated like the evil intangibles.

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    • Tom says:

      Boy, I sure hope he didn’t factor into these rankings. Unless he’s done reporting and all that. Otherwise, this is supposed to be a rational list, not more nonsense speculation. We get enough of that stuff from the Cafardos of the world.

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  17. Trenchtown says:

    I’m on the side of the crowd here Dave, Tulowitzki this high just doesn’t seem right. Troy’s 2007 performance just doesn’t seem to be an accurate representation of his current skills. His defense hasn’t showed to be as good, and while it is always going to be a factor for a Coors player, Tulowitzki has a significant home/road split to the point for his career he is slugging .400 away and hitting .255 with a .292 BABIP. Basically I’m not convinced he is anything more then a 2.5-3.5 win shortstop which definitely has value, just not top 15 player value

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    • Teej says:

      Troy’s 2007 performance just doesn’t seem to be an accurate representation of his current skills.

      If Dave were treating 2007 as Troy’s true talent level, he would be in the top five of this list.

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      • ebc says:

        He was top five last year, wasn’t he? He was too high last year, but this ranking seems about right.

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  18. Marco says:

    I’m sure someone smarter than me will be able to explain, but I just don’t see what all the fuss is about Tulo.

    I see a guy who has a .324 OBP away from home. He plays a premium defensive position, and sports a +10.7 UZR over about 2 years worth of games.

    Young, valuable, cheap – absolutely. But I have to squint REALLY hard to see top 15 value in the game.

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    • Sam A says:

      I also find it hard to believe that most teams would place him that high in terms of trade value Okay, he’s under contract for awhile, but he really isn’t a top-shelf player at any price.

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      • Brad says:

        I think you guys are dead on here. He’s a nice player, and has some talent, but he hasn’t been anywhere near good enough outside of Colorado to place him this high. I think it is more reasonable to not include him in the list at all than it is to put him in the top 15. Maybe Dave will chime in with his reasoning, but right now this is the stangest of all his picks.

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      • Joe R says:

        It seems like Colorado’s park factors are understated because every Rockie player seems to drop off the planet when they leave.

        By that I mean way more than expected, like 130 OPS+ to 100 OPS+.

        Ironically I wouldn’t be surprised if Holliday ends up back in Colorado now that his FA market value is dead. .428 SLG corner OF’s aren’t exactly a rare species.

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      • ebc says:

        Examples of Rockies players dropping off the planet when they leave? I had the opposite impression, actually. Guys like Galarraga and Bichette did quite a bit better after leaving than you would expect from their road numbers while playing for the Rockies.

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      • Joe R says:

        If that’s sarcasm, well played.
        If not, here I go, it’s almost 5.

        Bichette, eh, he had a few more okay seasons that didn’t stray far off the radar, but only lasted 2 years ACO (After Colorado).

        And Gallaraga, idk man. He was so enigmatic, he had a few dominant seasons outside of Colorado, but some real flops, too. 4 of his top 6 OPS+ seasons (where he played in > 100 games) were in Colorado, which of course is park adjusted, but his highest was as a Brave the year after Colorado.

        Maybe he did just have a late peak. Ages 32-37 is weird, but not TOTALLY out there.

        So idk, maybe you do win this point.

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      • Rox Girl says:

        “It seems like Colorado’s park factors are understated because every Rockie player seems to drop off the planet when they leave.”

        Especially all those middle infielders… Look, I know how much you want to hang your hat on Matt Holliday and only Matt Holliday as being the final arbiter of this, but what you’re saying is hardly supported.

        Here are the season (or half season in the case of P. Wilson and L. Walker) before and after OPS+ of the significant players (those that had starting or primary bench roles with both teams) that have moved from Coors Field to other venues since the humidor went online. Maybe I’m missing a couple, but it’s not intentional in a quick survey:

        Juan Uribe 2003 OPS+ 76, 2004 OPS+ 111
        Ron Belliard 2003 OPS+ 87, 2004 OPS+ 106
        Mark Bellhorn 2003 OPS+ 60, 2004 OPS+ 107
        Jay Payton 2003 OPS+ 110, 2004 OPS+ 88
        Larry Walker 2004 (COL) OPS+ 166, 2004 (STL) OPS+ 143
        Royce Clayton 2004 OPS+ 80 2005 OPS+ 74
        Jeromy Burnitz 2004 OPS+ 121 2005 OPS+ 94
        Charles Johnson 2004 OPS+ 91, 2005 OPS+ 66
        Aaron Miles 2005 OPS+ 65 2006 OPS+ 74
        Preston Wilson 2005 (COL) OPS+ 100 2005 (WSN) OPS+ 105
        Todd Greene 2005 OPS+ 85, 2006 OPS+ 94
        Jamey Carroll 2007 OPS+ 56, 2008 OPS+ 85
        Kaz Matsui 2007 OPS+87, 2008 OPS+ 106
        Willy Taveras 2008 OPS+56, 2009 OPS+53
        Matt Holliday 2008 OPS+140, 2009 OPS+ 117

        It averages to 92 in Colorado, 95 the next season in another stadium.

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      • Brad says:

        Rox, blasting a ton of players like that really doesn’t tell us anything about Tulo’s situation. I don’t have the energy to look into them, so this is total guess work, but there are tons of reasons why a player might have a better season after he left colorado. He could have been entering his prime, he could have been injured in colorado, he may have been platooned the next year, etc.

        What I can tell you about Tulo is that over the course of his career he has played much better at Coors than on the road. I can think of no substantial reason why a player would consistently play better at home than on the road (except for luck, or small sample size). So in my opinion, his numbers are greatly inflated by his home ball park. A more accurate reflection of his actual talent is that .720 OPS on the road, which even you would agree is not elite.

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      • Rox Girl says:

        Brad, those listed players were in response to the quoted person who was doing exactly what you’re trying to get on me for with even a smaller sample of just one or two players in saying that Coors Field’s park factor was too low. It wasn’t responding to you. Those players actually represent the same kind of diverse mix of guys on their way up and down you’d find leaving any other team. Players clearly in decline when they left the Rockies such as Charles Johnson and Larry Walker are balanced out by players on their way up such as Juan Uribe or Aaron Miles. Players regressing down after clear peak seasons like Holliday are balanced by players regressing up from subpar (to their standards) seasons like Carroll. My point remains that the park factor should be the preferable tool to use when evaluating the true level of these players, not some unadjusted raw road numbers.

        But it seems so many here, yourself included by using only his road stats and not a true park adjusted sum that incorporates both home and away performances, are insistent on dinging Tulo and other Rockies players more than what’s really deserved or supported by a comprehensive analysis and subsequently more than you’d handicap any other group of players. The burden should be on you to support why this is a better course than looking at the park adjusted figures, but I haven’t seen it besides the anecdotes of Matt Holliday, who’s regression seems to be well within a normal range for his age when the difference in parks is accounted for.

        Tulo’s offense when you take a park adjusted wOBA average is ahead of the pace of J.J. Hardy, Furcal, Rollins, Stephen Drew and Tejada at this age, but behind those of HanRam, Jeter and Jose Reyes. Yunel Escobar’s bat may have been a little ahead, it’s hard to tell since he spent much of that age season in AAA, given his power Tulo is likely to be a better hitter in his 26-29 year old seasons than Escobar as well. Hanley and Jeter go beyond elite status when it comes to hitting, and I’m sure most people would agree that Reyes is elite.

        Honestly, I don’t know if Tulo is or is not going to become elite, but he is very good, and he’s better than he’s given credit for by the comments here, and for his salary the Rockies are getting a bargain that I didn’t even realize we were getting until I started looking at it this afternoon. I don’t know if I’d rank him #15, but I don’t think he’s as far off as all the hue and cry on FanGraphs today would make it seem.

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      • Mike I says:

        It’s somewhat misleading to point out Tulo’s Coors/Away splits and say that we can find out more about his bat by how he hits away from Coors. That is, all hitters generally can be expected to hit a little better at home than away. I can’t find how large this effect might be, but it’s probably not out of line to suggest an average OPS 30-50 points higher at home.

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  19. Aaron B. says:

    Where’s Dave?

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    • BIP says:

      I’m guessing after all the crap he’s had to deal with in articles he’s commented on, that he’s given up on participating in these discussions.

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  20. DavidCEisen says:

    Just a note on Tulo. He has historically been a strong second half player: http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=3531&position=SS&page=8&type=full (second graph)

    He has also been playing better as this season progresses: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/tulowitzkis-revival

    I’m not sure he deserves to be this high up, but an argument can be made that he does.

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  21. Dale says:

    I”m a Braves fan too, and I would have no objection to trading Yunel for Tulo. They are different players with different styles. Tulo will hit 5th for power. Yunel usually hits 2nd and gets on base. I’m curious. Where would we move Yunel since you guys have given up on him at SS. 2B? As far as i know, there really arent any good SS”s in our farm.

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  22. The thing about a beginner is that they’re eager. This is both good and bad. It’s good because they’ll put full effort into things and learn as much as they can, it’s bad because their eagerness makes them impatient! Many’s the beginner who didn’t get dramatic results in the first month and gave up because of it.

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