2009 Prospect Mine: Washington Nationals

This probably does not come as a shock to many people, but the Washington Nationals system is not very good. There are some interesting players in the lower minors, but most of their talented Latin signings from the last few years turned out to be 35 years old and older… OK, not quite. But the grey hair should have been a tip off.

AAA/AA
Jordan Zimmermann had a great 2008 season and an even better spring training in 2009, which earned him a spot on the club’s opening day starting rotation. The former second round draft pick was selected out of a small college in 2007. During the 2008 season, Zimmermann allowed just 89 hits in 106.2 Double-A innings. He also posted rates of 3.29 BB/9 and 8.69 K/9. He has good four-pitch mix with a fastball that touches 94 mph, a slider, curveball and change-up.

While Zimmermann has taken a huge step forward, Ross Detwiler has taken a step or two back after being the club’s first round pick in the same draft. Detwiler received a taste of big league action after signing, but he spent all of 2008 in High-A ball with modest results. He allowed 140 hits in 124 innings and posted rates of 4.14 BB/9 and 8.27 K/9. Detwiler has a fastball that can touch 96 mph, along with a good curveball and change-up. He’s expected to open 2009 in Double-A despite his struggles.

A+/A
Michael Burgess, 20, was another player that had a disappointing season in 2008. After a stunning debut in 2007 after being a supplemental first round pick out of high school, the outfielder hit just .249/.335/.469 with 18 home runs in 401 at-bats. He posted rates of 10.3 BB% and a gut-churning 33.9 K%. He “earned” a late-season promotion to High-A, where he hit .225 albeit with six homers in just 71 at-bats. Burgess is not the best fielder but he has a strong arm, which helps him immensely in right field.

Chris Marrero was the organization’s first round draft pick in 2006 but he has been slowed by injuries (a broken leg and damaged ankle in ’08) and inconsistencies. The 20-year-old first baseman spent 2008 in High-A ball where he hit .250/.325/.453 with 11 home runs in just 256 at-bats. He also posted rates of 8.9 BB% and 21.5 K%. It was his second time in High-A and most of his numbers took a small dip. Regardless, he should open 2009 in Double-A.

Catcher Derek Norris is an intriguing sleeper in the system, who is starting to get noticed more and more. In 2008, the 2007 fourth round pick out of high school hit .278/.444/.463 with 10 home runs and 11 steals (in 20 attempts) in 227 short-season at-bats. Norris also posted impressive rates of 21.7 BB% and 24.7 K%. Defensively, the right-handed hitter is raw but he has a strong arm and threw out almost 50 percent of base stealers last year.

SS/R
One of the best bits of news that the organization received this year is that Jack McGeary is going to pitch full-time for the first time since signing for almost $2 million in 2007. He had been splitting his time between baseball and finishing his degree at Stanford. The left-hander had a good year in 2008 and he allowed 61 hits in 59.2 innings. He also posted rates of 1.96 BB/9 and 9.65 K/9. McGeary has a repertoire that includes an 87-91 mph fastball, good curve and change-up.

Outfielder Destin Hood was selected out of high school in the second round of the 2008 draft. The toolsy outfielder played both baseball and football in college and was given a large contract to forgo college. In his debut in rookie ball, Hood hit .256/.333/.349 in 86 at-bats. Catcher Adrian Nieto was another prep player given an above-average contract to sign. He hit .265/.390/.353 in 34 rookie at-bats. Following the trend, J.P. Ramirez cashed in after signing late. He hit .364 in just 11 at-bats. Impressively, he walked four times and did not strike out.

Up Next: The Regular Season!




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Marc Hulet has been writing at FanGraphs since 2008. His work focuses on prospect analysis. Follow him on Twitter @marchulet.

6 Responses to “2009 Prospect Mine: Washington Nationals”

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  1. Will says:

    Good review. I generally agree with all the above.

    What do you think of Leonard Davis and Bill Rhinehart? Both guys killed the pitching in the AFL (but then again, who didn’t?), posting OPSs of 1.015 and .990, respectively. Davis is pretty versatile too, playing 3B and some 2B and OF.

    Also, did you consider including Justin Maxwell? He’s been plagued by injuries, but when healthy he’s looked very promising. He’s a real toolsy guy, and he’s put up good numbers this Spring. If the Nats weren’t so stacked in the OF at the moment, I would have expected him to make the team

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  2. Marc says:

    Maxwell = 25 years old, he has just 43 minor league games above A-ball and he hit .233 at that level in 2008.

    Davis is probably a utility player in the Majors. Rhinehart is the most intriguing, for me, of the three…

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  3. Nick says:

    Out of curiosity, is Esmailyn Carlos Alvarez Daniel Gonzalez Lugo still going to be in the organization?

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  4. brian recca says:

    What about Zech Zincola and Ian Desmond?

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  5. Marc says:

    Lugo will remain in the org… they spent a lot of $$ on him. Zincola was overhyped after that first season… command/control is not good. Desmond was also overhyped… He’s probably never going to hit well enough to be a regular.

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  6. B says:

    Quick question about the whole series: Why do you give us the hits a pitcher allowed in their IP? Is that a good predictor of future success, and even if it is, my thought would be the “predictor” aspect of it mostly comes from multicollinearity with K% and possibly GB/FB. Basically I’ve never read anything about this, and my initial thought is it isn’t necessarily a “skill” that translates to MLB performance, so I’m hoping you can give me some insight. Thanks!

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