2010 Trade Value: #20 – #16
Introduction
#50-#46
#45-#41
#40-#36
#35-#31
#30-#26
#25-#21
#20 – Zack Greinke, SP, Kansas City
It would have been unfair to expect Greinke to repeat his remarkable 2009 season, and thus far, he hasn’t been able to do it. However, even after taking a step back, he’s still among the game’s best pitchers, and he is signed to a bargain contract that will pay him just $27 million in 2011 and 2012. Of all the guys in the Top 50, he’s probably the most likely to be moved before his current contract expires, so it will be interesting to see if we actually find out what Greinke’s trade value is in the next year or so.
#19 – Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pittsburgh
Teams love players who can do everything, and that’s McCutchen in a nutshell. He’s above average in every area, and as a 23-year-old with a broad array of skills, he’s got room for even more development. He’s already one of the game’s best center fielders and would get significantly more notice if he played somewhere besides Pittsburgh. Given that the Pirates have him under team control for five more years, they don’t have to worry about losing their franchise player any time soon.
#18 – Adam Wainwright, SP, St. Louis
Anyone who wasn’t sure how good Wainwright’s curve was learned during Tuesday’s All-Star Game. His curve ball is probably the best in the game, and his fastball, slider, and change-up aren’t bad either. He throws strikes, gets groundballs, and misses bats. There are really no flaws in his game. The Cardinals control him through 2013 at a grand total of $27 million, and the last two years of the deal are team options, limiting the liability if something goes wrong and he ends up hurt. Overall, the combination of excellence, low cost, and minimal risk adds up to a highly valued asset.
#17 – Kevin Youkilis, 1B, Boston
A six-win player signed through 2013 for a grand total of $37 million? Yes, please. Youkilis has surpassed what anyone thought he would become, and has turned himself into one of the best all around players in the game. He hits for contact and power, draws a bunch of walks, and plays quality defense at multiple positions. Even at age 31, he’s showing no signs of slowing down, and while he has a skillset that generally doesn’t age all that gracefully, he should remain highly productive through the rest of his contract.
#16 – Ubaldo Jimenez, SP, Colorado
No, he’s not pitching as well as his ERA would suggest. Yes, he’s still a phenomenal pitcher. His combination of stuff and performance is up there with anyone, and when you see him light up radar guns, it isn’t hard to see why hitters are having such a tough time generating runs against him. Beyond just what he brings to the mound, though, his contract is super team friendly – he’s got four years left on his deal (the last two being club options) for a grand total of $21 million. The last option is voidable if he’s traded, however, so an acquiring team would only get three years from him, which keeps him out of the top 15, but still makes him a tremendously valuable asset.
Ubaldo at #16?
I’m scratching my head on this one. Compare his contract with Strasburg (4 yr/$15.1M (09-12)) – Ubaldo makes less money for the same amount of time (4 yr/$10M (09-12)+13-14 cl opts). I know the hype machine is squarely focused on Strasburg, but NO WAY does he deserve to be higher on this list. Dave, I think you dropped the ball on this one..
Strasburg is under team control for another 6 years after this one. The deal he signed only actually relates to the guaranteed money. Afterwards he’s still arb eligible.
Also, the 2014 club option on Ubaldo doesn’t apply to this because he can (and will) void it if he is traded. If not for that clause I’m sure he would have landed a little higher (maybe even top 10), but losing that extra year (which would only cost 8 million) does affect his value significantly.
Actually, going forward, the money is about the same because $5m of strasburg’s $7.5M bonus has been paid. It is closer to $10m v. $9m, ubaldo getting a number of bonuses on innings and cy young votes that he’s likely to earn. His option for 2013 looks likely to be picked up, which would take him up to free agency. It is a minimum $5.75M. Strasburg will be coming off of a $3M contract and not be arbitration eligible. IOW, Strasburg is likely to make less over the next 4 years than Ubaldo, and will be considerably younger at that point.
Strasburg is under control for more than those 4 years, however. After this season, you get 6 years of Strasburg versus 3 years of Ubaldo (note the clause about the final option being voided, which is very relevant for trade value).
I’m not saying you are wrong, just that it is fully defensible. Far from “dropping the ball”….
I get it, I really get it, but no freakin way should Youk be ranked higher than Pujols.
Pujols contract ends in 2011, while youk is under contract for 2013. Youk has more trade value due to being undervalued but also under a longer period of time.
And he’s been every bit as good as Pujols this year. Being able to play a competent 3B doesn’t hurt either.
I honestly don’t know who I’d take.
Probably depends on who you are, right? If you’re the Braves and you’re going all out to win this year, you go Pujols. If you’re the Pirates and you have no chance of doing anything this year (or next), you go Youk. No way you take Albert just to see him walk since you’re not good and can’t pay him $30/yr
I’d pay Pujols thirty dollars a year.
I think this list is more of a list of most valuable players to their respective teams over a period of time more than it is a list of trade value.
It’s much easier to list the most valuable players than it is actual trade value.
You should probably read the description of what this list is before you make judgements.
I’m well aware what it says. However, the actual list is closer to how I described it than how the description describes it.
No disrespect to Youkilis (who is undoubtably one hell of a player) or your excellent trade value series, but do you really think that if the Indians offered up Carlos Santana (and his three more $400K/year seasons) straight up for Kevin Youkilis that the Red Sox would decline?
I think you’re right, they shouldn’t, and most teams shouldn’t, which means I agree with you about their trade value. But I’m pretty sure the Red Sox would decline.
The Indians are rebuilding, so no. If the Indians were 3 games back, had a legitimate chance at winning the World Series, and needed a 1st basement, they probably would. Obviously each team has unique circumstances.
yes, because the Red Sox aren’t constrained by money. Their calculus is different than that of most teams… Youk is a freaking local hero, and they already have V-Mart and plenty of money to fill in elsewhere.
However, that shouldn’t really be relevant to this list, as the decision should be in a vacuum, not based on team context. I guess a lot depends on how “real” you think Santana’s production is. Santana’s unbelievable start is basically equal to Youkilis just doing his thing…we can’t assume that Santana can remain this much of an offensive force quite yet.
Look at it this way — if Santana keep posting a 900+ OPS for the next year, he will be ahead of Youk next year for sure ;-) no shame in that!
If you read the introduction to this series, trade value is defined as the player’s value to other teams. The question is not “which of the Indians or Red Sox would balk first at a Santana for Youk trade?” The question is “If Team A had the opportunity to trade Player X for Santana or Youk, which player would they pick?”
Man if Youkilis gets on this list despite his age, I sure hope Utley makes the cut…
I’m starting to think Buchholz either got left off or is way higher than I expected.
I think it’s the way higher versus the not at all.
I predicted him at 16, but that was before I lost 5 guys predicted ahead of him.
I had Lincecum, Greinke and Jimenez higher than Buch. Only pitchers left that I rank ahead of him now is Strasburg. Can’t believe he would be the second highest pitcher, but what do I know.
I’m betting he’s not even on the list. Forgetting about the pitchers who are “established studs” like Wainwright, Jimenez, King Felix….
Buchholz is in that group of “young, potential studs” like Latos, Matusz, Hanson, Price. I think it’s defensible that Buchholz is not above these guys (although I wouldn’t argue too hard if you disagree). His major league K-rate has been underwhelming… is he as dominant as guys like Hughes and Kershaw have already shown themselves to be? Does he have more upside than Latos, Price, or Hanson? I think Buchholz is a little overhyped (surprise surprise being a Red Sock ;p)
Yeah. Youkilis over Pujols seems like a good reason to stop reading this thing.
it’s not Youkilis over over Pujols…. it’s THREE YEARS of Youkilis over ONE YEAR of Pujols.
Nobody is forcing you to read this…
One and a half…and neither player will ever leave their respective team.
Good call. These “best overall player rankings” are really messed up.
Wait a second………..
I’m well aware of the contractual situation. Give me Pujols, give him the money he wants when his contract is up, and I’m sitting good. I don’t care if they have similar numbers this year, Pujols is a vastly superior player and will be in the future.
If the Red Sox called the Cards with that offer the phone would be hung up before Epstein could finish his sentence.
As soon as I saw Price on the list, I was pretty sure Buchholz didn’t make it, because I can’t think of any reason he would be higher than Price. Certainly Lester would be higher than Buchholz, and I’m not sure he should be higher than Price once you consider the contracts.
I doubt he’s on the list at all. He’s got a great ERA this year hiding behind a .275 BABIP and a 3.6% HR/FB rate; if not for that he’s only a little above average. Great to have on your team for cheap but not one of the best 15 assets in baseball.
What’s Lester’s contract look like?
He’s making $3.75M this year, signed for $25.25M through ’13 with a $13M team option in ’14.
He’s got to be in the top 15 then. He’s very underpaid for a guy who can perform like he has against the AL East.
Lester is definitely in the top 15… he’s one of the 5-10 best pitchers in baseball in an absolute performance sense, plus he’s young, established, and signed to reasonable terms with 4 years of control after this season.
He is basically the “best case scenario” that any other of the young guns (Latos, Price, Hanson, etc) project to in 2 years… but he’s already there.
To clarify, the first half of my post was a reply about Buchholz, but Fangraphs burped and instead of ending up as a nested reply it ended up as its own comment. Lester absolutely deserves a spot on this list.
Sure Pujols is a way better player than Youkilis, however this list is about Value….Pujols will cashing in next year on a new contract (probably around 20Mil+ a year), Youkilis on the other hand is locked in until 2012 at 12.5 Mil for the next two years….. Production wise, Youkilis will be the better value. At 20Mil+, Pujols will need to hit 40HR’s to match. It’s that simple…..
Do I think Youkilis deserves to be this high….not really…but he should be ahead of Pujols because of salary….
What do you mean next year? He has a club option for 16mm next year, with 3mm deferred at a 0% interest rate. So in 2012 he’ll cash in, but next year he won’t. And if you where trying to win a WS this year and next, would you want Pujols or Youk on your team?
What if you’re hoping to win the next 4 years? Youk isn’t that far behind Pujols (just about even this year) and you get him for 2 more years. I don’t think there is a clear answer either way.
If you are hoping to win in the next 4 years you take Pujols. I’m suprised by the group think and the blind faith in these rankings. Pujols is younger than Youk. Pujols has proven that he is significantly a better player. Even in a year where Pujols seems to only be playing OK he is producing more than Youk. Pujols has averaged 8 WAR a year in his career. It really isn’t close as to which one is better player. You’d have to pay a ton for Pujols, but he is better than Youk by every objective criteria. I guess this is going to turn into one of these silly series where reality gets thrown out the window and the community just drinks the solvent green from the same folks that made the Ms the number 6 organization ahead of clearly better teams/farm systems like the Braves. This really is complete nonsense that Youk is higher than Pujols.
You wouldn’t have Pujols for all 4 seasons though. There’s no way he signs a 2 year extension. If you want to resign him you have to go out way more long term than that. If my team is in good position to contend for the next 4 years, especially if my chances look better towards the end of that period, then I probably go for Youk.
way to totally miss the point of the series, Nick.
I’m not really seeing any “groupthink” here — there is plenty of vigorous debate and disagreement going on here. And these rankings aren’t quantitatively objective, it is one man’s opinion on an attempt to assess value WHEN YOU INCLUDE contract status.
It isn’t “groupthink” just because you disagree with some of the conclusions.
Nobody is disputing that Pujols is a better player than Youk.
Youkilis
“while he has a skillset that generally doesn’t age all that gracefully,”
What exactly would that be? Are you talking “old players skills?” because Youkilis most certainly doesn’t meet that criteria.
I think he is talking about Youks big ole belly/tummy/gut/spare tire/love handles. Carrying around extra weight tends to hurt the knees over the long haul.
He’s certainly torso-heavy, but he doesn’t have a gut at all.
Youk has worked really hard on his conditioning over the years. He’s stout, but he doesn’t look like a Molina.
Waiting quietly for Votto & Zimmerman.
Agreed, and for Rasmus too. I bet Longoria takes down the top spot again.
Anyone else think Josh Johnson will show up? The extension he signed before this year was 4/$39, right? Even with durability problems this seems like a steal and a half. And if not, why not? I’m just curious.
um, of course Josh Johnson will show up! If Verlander can make the list with EIGHTY MILLION due to him, I think JJ is a pretty safe bet!
Youk over Pujols is easy (and no, I’m not a Red Sox fan). Albert is the best in the game but his contract situation would deter a lot of teams. Youk is just a freak. Surprisingly, he is one of the least hyped players in the game. Don’t know why.
It will be interesting to see if guys with huge paychecks are going to crack the list this late. Halladay is making 3/$60 or 4/$80. He’s exceeded $20m in value for the past 4 years and is already at $18m at the All-Star break. There’s no reason to believe he can’t consistently be a $30m/year pitcher for the next few years. That’s a lot of positive value. Throw in the fact that he is a dominant ace with an amazing track record and I would say he’s pretty valuable.
So who is left in the top 15? These are guys I was thinking of without doing to much digging. Any obvious names I’m missing?
Strasburg
Johnson
Halladay
Lester
Haren (?)
Heyward
Votto
Zimmerman
Ramirez
Longoria
Cano
Wright
Pedroia
Utley
Upton
I would agree that it will probably be Longoria up top.
Strasburg, Zimmerman, Votto, and Heyward are the others that jumped to mind.
I wouldn’t be shocked to see Aroldis make the cut despite the control issues. For some reason, I still think that teams would be all over a lefty that throws 103, but maybe that is just me.
Justin Upton should be there.
Considering the names thrown around in his trade rumors already, Adrian Gonzalez has to be there.
Josh Johnson is dirt cheap for 3 years
Mike Leake is a guy that probably should have made the list somewhere, but I don’t see him being top 15, so I will assume he was left off despite 5 years of control, two at league minimum, for a guy with a pretty high floor.
No way Chapman is going to be this high. That’d be higher than Strasburg ranked last year. And he doesn’t throw that fast, at least not starting. I’ve heard he touches 100 now and then.
No way does Adrian Gonzalez make the list. He’s going to be a free agent after next season. Dave actually mentioned him in the introduction as a guy who didn’t make the cut.
Alex,
Aroldis Chapman has hit 103 on multiple occasions, being clocked by multiple guns. The one that jumped out to me and made me a believer was that John Manuel of Baseball America shot out a photo tweet of his gun reading 103. That is my source
Colby Rasmus is on the list.
Yeah you’re right…I wonder who he’ll knock out of the 15 I listed
my guess is haren. he’s a stud but doesn’t provide the same value as the other guys listed.
Miguel Cabrera is a lock to be here. He’s quite a bit younger than Youkilis or Pujols and is locked up to a longterm contract that isn’t outrageous in cost.
Wanna make a $100 bet on that? Seriously, I’m game.
You would think a 27 year old that has produced 30 WAR since 2005 (5.5 seasons) and is locked up for a long time would have to be up there. He’s just entering his prime and is as sure a bet as anybody to be a 6-8 WAR player per year for the next several years.
Ryan Braun maybe?
Yeah I definitely had meant to include Braun.
I absolutely love this series. Amazing job thus far. You bring up a great point about Grenkie. Although he is a cheap, young, excellent pitcher, i am a bit surprised there is not more trade talk surrounding him, although i kind of understand why, considering he is probably one of the few players that draws fans in KC.
Okay, but, I can’t help but think that, if the Cards made Pujols available right now, they could get a ton of young talent for him, like what the Rangers got for Teixeira. No team makes a deal like that for Youkilis.
Of course teams would give up a package like that for Youkilis. He’s been better than Teix had been going into that trade and he’s signed for 2 more years than Teix was. The disconnect here is that guys like Youk basically never get put on the market. How many times has a 6 win player locked up to a cheap deal for the 3.5 years gotten moved?
Stop doing this ‘thinking’ thing. You’re throwing the idiots off.
I think the reason that so many people have problems with this list is that they subconsciously don’t believe in the linearity of WAR. It seems to me that people are valuing Pujol’s 8 WAR/yr more than just 2 WAR better than Youk’s 6 WAR/yr.
1) They doubt them because they’ve read enough of your comments to realize none of you have ever touched a baseball, or dirt before.
2) They are turned off by your blatantly subjective use of statistics, and inability to accurately reflect or interpret context.
3) Because they don’t subscribe to a system that rewards “points” for some wildly volatile, misinterpreted statistic like UZR, in order to quantify value.
4) People refuse to acknowledge a group of people that call the games elites (Howard) “overrated”.
5) Longoria will obviously be #1, and while there’s a strong case for him, it is far from definitive.
6) We already know Strasburg will be disgustingly overrated, and if he later crashes, the same morons overrating him will provide in depth analysis of how all the signs were obvious.
7) The results and analysis is clearly biased to the objective eye.1 player’s weakness, is another player’s strength. The manifestation of an educational system that has taught you to regurgitate, and never to think.
Joe Morgan? Is that you?
Why are you on FANGRAPHS if you aren’t interested in statistical analysis?
What if I’ve touched a baseball and dirt before, but also still live in my mom’s basement and don’t know how to talk to girls? Is there some middle ground for this comically played out bit, or do I have to be either 100% stat nerd or 0% stat nerd?
1) We all know. We’re all nerds here. None of have jobs, girlfriends, athletic ability, and are generally as pale as albinos. Regardless, opening an argument with insults inherently makes it a weak argument.
2) This series is clearly subjective and doesn’t pretend to be otherwise. There are definitely plenty of objective observed data involved, however. But weighing the upside of David Price against that of Tommy Hanson or Clayton Kershaw is definitely a lot of guess-work and comes down to opinions as much as anything else. This list has no claims to certainty or complete authority; rather, it is meant as a starting point for discussion and debate.
3) The diamond in the rough of your statement. Midseason WAR data can be incorrect or inappropriate based on the high variance of UZR. What UZR is, even midseason UZR, is give us a strong approximate: a +10 fielder is definitely not a true value -20, but he might be a +4 or +14. There’s definitely plenty of readers who treat WAR as if it’s golden even though there’s a good bit of wiggle room in the UZR component, especially with sample sizes smaller than a full season, but that certainly doesn’t invalidate the entire WAR metric. It means that those who use it should really understand a bit more about its variance.
4) Overrated is a completely subjective term. From the rest of your points, it’s hard to gauge where you stand on objective versus subjective evaluations. Regardless, you’re right, Ryan Howard is one of the best baseball players on the planet. He’s got a contract that pays him as though he’s one of the two best firstbasemen in the league, and it’s almost impossible to make a case that he’s in the top five.
5) You’re losing cohesiveness here. You’re bashing the rankings and the people reading them, and then you pause to say that you don’t necessarily disagree with the person who may or may not rank first. I find this odd.
6) Wait, I thought we weren’t calling people overrated because they’re really good at their jobs? So it’s okay to call people overrated, as long as YOU agree? What was wrong with the subjective nature of these rankings, again?
7) It’s okay to have bad grammar, spelling, and punctuation on the internet-it’s not a formal setting. However, if you’re going to point out that someone is poorly educated, ensure that you have subject/verb agreement and are not sprinkling unwarranted commas. Your final sentence is not a complete sentence at all, either. Without even looking beyond the point where you discuss the educational system, I have grounds to question your own level of education.
As the one reader of Fangraphs who HAS touched dirt, I would like to report to my colleagues that it is overrated and dirty.
I never touched dirt, true, but I once briefly handled a small lump of loam mixed with equals parts clay and sand. Am I allowed to comment on this blog?
@bronnt – regurgitate…never to THINK.
Youk has never put up a 6 WAR, he may this year, but that would be a first. Pujols has put up a 9.5 WAR in his career. The difference between the two is just as likely to be Pujols out WARs Youk by 4 WAR a season as it is to be 2 WAR a season. I get the whole point of this I really do, but if I’m offered Pujols (rest of this year + 1 year at 16mm with 3mm deferred) for Youk then I make that trade. I take on the unknown risk of the ability to sign him, but I hope like heck I can, but I’d rather have that chance than Youk. I get the ranking of most of the young guys on this list above Pujols but i don’t agree with the Youk ranking, especially because this smells like a ranking based only this half year where he is on pace to destroy every personal best, but that doesn’t mean he’ll improve again next year and so on..
I hate the Red Sox and halfway like the Cardinals, but anyone saying that Pujols (in the sense we are talking about) is of more value than Youk (who I hate with a passion) is a total homer and needs to stop whining about an article that’s nothing but speculation. Grow up. Are you seriously going to say you’re adults and then come on the internet and whine like little babies? Pretty obvious what kind of life you live (or should I say what kind of life you don’t live?)
No, its a bunch of folks that think Pujols is the best player in the league and that Youk is older and not the best player in the league. The whiners get it, this is the Ms ranked #6 all over again. Throw out reality, just like with the Ms, and blindly say “read what the series is supposed to be about” or maybe ask Jeff Nye to stop by and explain it all to us…
nick instead of being snippy, perhaps admit to yourself that possibly just don’t understand what is being discussed here? the concept of the articles has been explained to you numerous times and its not really complex, yet you continue to reply with the same erroneous argument. perhaps just let the adults talk? ;)
Number one will be Strasburg IMO. I also predict that Heyward will be in the top five.
One wonders if financials BESIDES contract status will come into play.
Strasburg sells out games, at least for now. I imagine most teams that can’t sell out games would appreciate that. I’m sure the Nats do.
No way Strasburg is #1. Too much injury risk, and isn’t necessarily better than say, Longoria, Upton, Wright, Zimmerman, etc. Those guys are all safer injury risks (well… maybe not Heyward) and are much more proven hitters.
And I’m not 100% sure of this, but I don’t think “extra” financials count. Because sure, Strasburg sells out games, but then again, go to Fenway or Citizen’s Bank anytime you want. Winning sells tickets too.
Longoria still #1 this year?
Longoria is still #1 this year, what has changed from last year (other than another year gone) to make it different. The reasons given last year for why he is #1 were so overwhelming, he would have to fall off the face of the earth (which he hasn’t), to drop. And who has made such a quantum leap to pass him? Upton? Heyward? Han Ram? Braun? DavyBoy? I don’t see it.
there is no singular trade value as there is no singular trade scenario. if you trade pujols to the yankees for example, then you better extract more value than #3x or whatever you rank him as, because of the idea that this is the yankees’ only way of obtaining a piece like pujols and perhaps sign him to an extension.
players value, marginal revenue/value per win contributed, is different for each team, and each team’s “replacement level” is also different by their different marginal revenue lines. take the yankees whose replacement level lpitcher is a guy like aj burnett, who is there every season on the fa market. the premium guys will be worth more to the yankees because the number of guys in baseball that are above the higher yankees replacement level line is fewer than those that could make a contribution to the royals.
Is this a joke? Seriously did some id*ot homer just say that Lester is higher valued than Price. And if this list does actually list that then this whole list is a joke.
Lester is the best case scenario for Price’s upside. HAHAHAHAHHAHAHA!
You are a F*ck*ng moron…
Let me drop some knowledge on you. Price has already passed Lester. Oh and Price has the better contract, with a much higher upside (he hasn’t even pitched 2 years of MLB action yet) and is younger.
Who was the starter of the All Start game for the AL? (Hint: It wasn’t Lester)
Who leads the AL in ERA and wins? (Hint: It isn’t Lester)
You have got to be kidding me if Clay or Jon on here higher than Price then this list has no credibility to anyone with baseball knowledge. Sorry accept reality!
brilliant post!
If WAR is generally accepted as the indicator of value here, then I think the easy answer here is:
Lester has a accumulated a WAR of 3.6 this season, better than David Price. His WAR is the 5th best in baseball for a pitcher. Lester is only 2 years older than Price. Lester has already posted 2 seasons for 5+ WAR in his career.
Am I missing something?
Thanks for the effort.