2010 Trade Value: #25 – #21
Introduction
#50-#46
#45-#41
#40-#36
#35-#31
#30-#26
#25 – Jay Bruce, OF, Cincinnati
The young outfielder for the Reds possesses all the abilities to be a true superstar, and a breakout year is coming, likely sooner than later. One of the best power and speed players in the game, Bruce will be a middle of the order hitter with defensive value, making him a rare specimen. He still has some growing to do before he gets there, but he’s already a quality player and has barely scratched the surface of what he could be. The Reds having him under team control through 2014 only enhances his value.
#24 – Tim Lincecum, SP, San Francisco
If this was strictly about past performance, he’d rank much higher. The continued loss of velocity, however, raises questions about what kind of pitcher he’ll be going forward, and teams have long been skeptical of his durability due to his size, workloads, and unorthodox delivery. Once you add his escalating paychecks into the calculation, and this is where we end up – with a pitcher who has been as good as anyone, but has enough question marks about his future abilities to keep him out of the top tier in terms of trade value.
#23 – Felix Hernandez, SP, Seattle
Perhaps because of the expectations that came with the beginning of his career, Hernandez can often feel like a disappointment because he’s not the best pitcher in the game. He is, however, in the discussion of guys not named Halladay, and his combination of stuff and durability have teams convinced that he could be even better if he ever fully matures. The five year contract he signed last winter is far enough below his market value that most teams could add him to their budget without too many problems.
#22 – Albert Pujols, 1B, St. Louis
Speaking of best in the game, trying to figure out where Pujols should land was quite the challenge. On one hand, he’s baseball’s premier slugger and drastically underpaid, but his contract only lasts through next season, so his value is short term only. He provides so much production, however, that teams would still be beating down the Cardinals door if he was ever made available, even though he’ll be looking for a huge paycheck a year from now. He’s pretty much the only guy good enough to overcome the lack of long term value.
#21 – Carlos Santana, C, Cleveland
Of all the good young catchers on this list, Santana is the best. A switch-hitter with power and a tremendous approach at the plate, he projects as a better version of Victor Martinez at the plate, only with much better defensive skills than his predecessor. He’s wasted no time in establishing himself as one of the game’s best young players, and because he wasn’t called up until June, the Indians will control his rights for six more years. The Dodgers will regret trading him for a long, long time.
I am competing with a few friends to figure out who the top 15 will be.
Needless to say, it will not be easy.
I didn’t think Lincecum would drop this much from your 2009 Value. Or Pujols for that matter. We’ll see where I end up.
Pujols should probably be higher. I feel like his trade value is enormous (if Cliff Lee got such a nice package, I think that Pujols could get double that). It’s also surprising that Roy Halladay didn’t crack this list. 65 million dollars for 3.5 years of Doc is like 30-40 million dollars in surplus value or so
Doc also has an option. Just remembered this.
Who said he didn’t make the list?
It seems unlikely that a 30+ year old pitcher who is in line to make big bucks will be a top 20 value
Age doesn’t matter that much for pitchers and Halladay is relatively cheap for what he brings to the table. I just assumed he’d be appearing on the list shortly. He’s better than someone like Felix, under team control just as long, earning only a little more per year, with actually less money guaranteed (because of the 2014 option).
He is only under contract for 2011, so what are you willing to give up for one year of service. If you think he is going to test free agency he is overvalued on this list. If I trade for him, I demand a long term contract to be put in place first. Then he moves to #1 in trade value. I would give him 8 year deal for 25+ million.
Maybe he is still to come? I had three of these guys in my final 15, maybe Doc replaces one?
I was just wondering what happened to Bryce Harper. Didn’t Strasburgh make the list last year? Is Harper just considered not as good a player?
Harper came from high school (basically) and it’s not even guaranteed he’ll make the majors. Strasburg was essentially a luck to hit the majors barring a freak injury.
Bender shot out the same reply I was gonna give. 17 year old hitters that utterly dominate high school and juco are far less a guarantee than 22 year old pitcher that dominate the college ranks. I would be stunned if Harper is still to come, although a stud 1/2 year in the minors (if he signs) will get him on the 2011 list for sure.
He is only under contract for 2011, so what are you willing to give up for one year of service. If you think he is going to test free agency he is overvalued on this list. If I trade for him, I demand a long term contract to be put in place first. Then he moves to #1 in trade value. I would give him 8 year deal for 25+ million.
ignore post wrong thread, but Harper played college ball. He skipped his last year of high school to play in college.
“Harper earned his GED after his sophomore year in December 2009, making him eligible for the June 2010 amateur draft in order to begin his professional baseball career earlier.[3][4] For the 2010 college season, Harper enrolled at the College of Southern Nevada of the Scenic West Athletic Conference (SWAC), a league that uses wood bats in conference play. In 66 games, he hit 31 home runs, 98 RBI, hitting .443/.526/.987 (AVG/OBP/SLG).[5] His 31 home runs broke the school’s previous record of 12. He was named the 2010 SWAC Player of the Year.” You might want to do a little research.
Bender, thats like saying Ken Griffey Jr. was not guaranteed to play in the majors. The kid has the longest HR in Tropicana field at 16. Dominated a wood bat college league while still in High School. If there was ever a for sure thing he is it.
Dude, Harper is barely seventeen. If he makes it to the Majors by 2012 he’ll be on the list, but come on.
Barely 17? He turns 18 this year, fyi.
Harper hasn’t signed yet so has no trade value. He could end up not signing (longshot but possible)
1. Nationals. 2. His agent is trying to decide what position he is going to play. 3. Scott Boras. Not too far from a longshot.
Elvis Andrus had a better year than Jay Bruce last year, has had a better year this year, is younger, and is under team control for as long.
Andrus is more valuable than Bruce.
Andrus’s bat is miles behind Bruce’s though. Bruce has more upside and could be a 380 wOBA bat in the near future. Also, their WAR is equal thus far this year.
Bruce profiles as a middle of the order hitter, Andrus will never be that. Hence, Bruce is more valuable. Although I think he should be closer to where Andrus ranked. Definitely behind Kinsler.
Despite what others have had to say, I think this has been very objective. And well thought out and reasoned to boot.
By the way, many of us have said and continue to say that Lincecum will flame out. At this point I would be shocked if an injury did not occur before he hits Free Agency. If Lincecum manages to stay healthy until he becomes a FA God help any team that signs him to more than a 3-4 year deal.
Sweet. Since Carlos Santana is #21 that means Casey Blake is a lock for the top 10. I am such a sweet GM!
– Ned Coletti
Who do you think will rank higher: Josh Bell or George Sherrill?
My money is on Tony Abreu.
Andrus plays a more premium defensive position than Bruce, and he plays it well. Does Bruce’s bat make up for the difference? I don’t know – you tell me.
Their WAR’s this season are equal, so I dunno, you tell me.
Doesn’t WAR incorporate the bump Elvis receives for playing SS (or is it simply on the offensive side of the ledger)? That bump is where a fair portion of his value comes from, I’d guess. Bruce is not as talented defensively at a less premium position, but isn’t bad by any means. In addition to that, his bat plays everywhere. So, with the negative adjustment for his position, I don’t really have a problem with Bruce > Andrus.
Andrus has zero home runs this season. I don’t think anyone has ruled out Bruce cracking 40 at some point in his career. His wrist injury last season needs to be considered.
Also, while Bruce plays corner OF, he plays it very well. Since his rookie season he’s made very few errors and in his career he’s 7.7 runs above average in range. His defensive value, with positional adjustment, is about +5 runs.
He’s a +12 defender in right?
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Jay Bruce – 23 year old with an OPS+ of 108. More valuable than a 22 year old leading baseball in K/9.
They really need to write something up on pitching age v. hitting age. The fact that Kershaw is a young pitcher doing what he is at such a young age is cool and everything, but it means very little in terms of his value going forward. If anything, it makes him more likely to breakdown due to injury. Bruce’s age on the other hand point
Please tell me more about how being a good young pitcher is bad for you.
War Felix Hernandez and Steven Strasburg.
I didn’t say it was bad, I just said younger pitchers are more likely to breakdown. Younger pitchers also aren’t a good bet to continue improving significantly as younger hitters are. Their development paths just aren’t comparable, yet many people try and apply the idea of hitter development curves to pitchers. It just doesn’t work that way.
Felix Hernandez passed though the injury nexus while throwing 190+ innings a year, finally going well past 200 (to almost 240) last season. He is no longer the injury risk that he was early on because he threw all those innings without getting injured.
Strasburg is still a big risk, but he has the best stuff we might have ever seen from a pitcher. The fact that he’s so young has very little to do with his ranking. Its the stuff and his command of it that are going to get him ranked so high.
The injury nexus is a theory that uses data from when the best advice doctors had was shoot heroin and if your pitcher wasn’t throwing a complete game you demanded your nickel back. It’s hardly relevant today.
Ah, so that’s what went wrong with Wood and Prior?
Sample size of two. Prior got hurt after he reached the injury nexus. Dusty Baker.
There is absolutely no way being a younger pitchers are more likely to be injured than old pitchers. Perhaps young pitchers are more injury prone than young hitters, but that doesn’t mean guys like Kershaw shouldn’t get a boost due to their youth.
How many older pitchers who have never had arm problems can you remember going down with arm injuries? I can’t think of any off the top of my head. Most of the older pitchers who do go down have a history or arm problems.
And why should he get a boost due to his youth? Being younger doesn’t make it significantly more likely that he will get better. Have we still not learned how often good young pitchers peak early and regress by the time they’re in their mid to late 20s?
to significant improvement over the coming years. Hitters tend to develop fairly linearly. Pitchers don’t. Its as simple as that.
Okay, but Kershaw, right now, is one of the best pitchers in the game. His career ERA/FIP/xFIP is 3.25/3.36/3.79. Bruce has a long way to develop before he’s as good as Kershaw.
I agree. Like I said, Bruce is someone that seems to get overrated on this site. I was just making the point that Kershaw being younger than Bruce shouldn’t really come into the discussion of who is more valuable.
Is there even a question about this? Duh he’s more valuable.
So…equal WAR. One guy is 21, the other is 23. I guess give me the 21 year-old, then.
5 more (correct?) years of control puts Andrus at 26
4 more years of control puts Bruce at 27
we can agree that a hitter’s peak ages are between, what, 27-29,30, typically?
You’re more in Bruce’s prime than EA, and so you could always look at it that way (not that your view on it is wrong).
There’s also the fact that Bruce has more projection left to
There’s also the fact that Bruce has more projection left to his game since his value comes mostly from his bat instead of his gloves and legs. Bats tend to develop more at the ages of those 2, while defensive and running value tend to peak very, very early and fall off from there. The other problem is that for Andrus to get significantly better with the bat, he’d likely have to pack on weight, which would decrease his value with the glove and legs.
I actually think Dave is significantly overrating Bruce here, for some reason he always seems to get a lot of love from fangraphs, but I can at least understand the underlying thinking.
ChrisDTX loves blessyouboys.com… you should too!
I’m sorry, but this list is terrible every year.
Then why do you bother reading it and commenting? Seems like you’d be happier just ignoring it.
Well, you’re right. I am tricked into reading it though. They built a brand and they tricked me. I will stop.
With brilliant insight like this, I’d be sorry also.
ha ha… this guy… I tell ya…
Felix seems a bit high. I mean his contract is below market value, but pitchers are also massive injury risks, especially ones who have pitched so many innings at such an early age.
Felix’s contract is a touch better than Verlanders and his production has been better and he’s younger, so I would rate him above Verlander, but Kershaw is going to be much cheaper and has been about as good as Felix since he debuted. I would have put Felix between Verlander and Kershaw.
Pitcher’s who have thrown the amount of innings that Felix have without anything resembling arm problems are not nearly the injury risks that someone like Kershaw is. Look at guys like Clemens, Maddux, and Glavine. They all threw a ton of innings at a young age, but they never had arm problems. Throwing a lot of innings at a young age without any warning signs (and if the workloads are built up properly) is a good thing.
Okay, so what arm injuries did Kershaw have?
Kershaw has yet to throw a full starters workload yet. We don’t know how his arm will handle it. If he does it this year and come this time next year he hasn’t shown any ill effects he should stay the same (due to having one less year of team control) or move up on the list. Until then, that uncertainty combined with the questionable control is hold him back just a bit.
I think the point is that Kershaw’s history is limited, so he’s still in the high-risk category, while Felix has worked his way out by not having had an injury yet. 1000 IP without an injury means more than 400 IP without injury.
Really? He threw 183.2 innings in 2009. Including the playoffs. What exactly is a full season of pitching for you?
Even his injury was to the non-throwing shoulder which was an excuse to skip a start or two in Sept.
Lets say he did have a regular workload and threw over 200 innings. I bet if he threw that much you would counter that the dodgers overworked him.
Adding the in the playoffs also adds in the extra time the playoffs took. He didn’t throw quite as many innings as you’d like to see from a pitcher last year given how long he was playing.
As for him throwing 200 innings last year, I would have no problem with it. If you read though this you’d see I’m lauding Hernandez for the workload he handled at a young age. 190-200 innings would have been perfectly reasonable for Kershaw last year based on the number he threw in 2008.
The effect that was showed in the injury nexus was very small (around 10% difference in attrition rate for 22 year olds vs. 24 year olds) and it didn’t take into account past workload only age.
Besides Kershaw has pitched over 400 innings in the majors including playoffs with no injuries I think. I think he would fit into the category of established health.
Like I said, I’m only about a season away from moving him into that category. I’m less interested in the number of pro innings for a career and more interested in how many in a particular season and what happens the subsequent year.
Both sides are somewhat missing the mark on Kershaw, here.
He threw 169 innings in (as a starter, in the regular season) 209, but he made 30 starts, meaning he averaged well under 6 innings per start despite extreme overall effectiveness.
The guy simply couldn’t get his pitch counts under control. Consider this:
Kershaw was 71st in MLB in innings pitched in 2009.
Kershaw was 55th in MLB in pitches thrown in 2009.
With an average P/IP, he’d of thrown around 190 innings and over 200 including the playoffs. This year, his P/IP is down almost a full pitch (to 16.8, still a little high) and his IP/S is up over 6 for the first time as well.
I doubt he’s ever a Halladay-esque CG machine, but all the signs are there that he can be a horse in a couple of years, and concerns about his workload (indicating risk) are probably overstated, at least relative to other young pitchers.
Acknowledgment!!! It’s rare to see that.
If Ryan Braun is not in the top 3, you will lose all credibility.
He’s still yet to come, but he doesn’t rank close to that highly. He’s a very good player, but he’s really not elite. The contract is a thing of beauty for the Brew Crew though.
Very curious to see what pitchers you put ahead of Felix. Can’t imagine one any team would rather have. He’s just barely older than the great strausburg but has dive years of MLB experience that proves he is the real deal and durable. Also henis still getting better. Pitching in the American league he is a top three or four pitcher in all of baseball. In the real
world, if Seattle made
him available…..a return that is unheard of would be offered.
His contract makes him not as valuable as you think he is. Also, apparently him being young makes him not as valuable. I don’t buy it, but idk.
No, that’s not how it works. Being relat
Being relatively young (24-26) isn’t a bad thing, especially when you’ve already shouldered a 190+ inning workload for over 4 years with absolutely no ill effects. That points to him not being as likely to get injured.
Now, being young doesn’t point to Felix continuing to improve. As I’ve tried explain, there is no group of pitchers that you should expect to improve. The point is he’s already very good and has proven himself as a durable started who can handle an extremely heavy (220+ inning) workload. That is what makes him so valuable. Even if he we 26 or 28 he’d rank just about as highly.
way to totally misrepresent that point :rolleyes:
(not you, Alex)
That’s because I don’t buy it, Batpig.
You don’t buy the made up point that you inserted instead of what people actually believe? I don’t buy it either.
No one is saying a pitcher being young makes him not as valuable. We’ve basically said two things:
1) Pitchers don’t just get better because they are young, their development curves are different than hitters
2) Young pitchers who haven’t consistently handled a large workload without injury are more likely to get injured than older pitchers who have.
What part of the actual points do you disagree with?
Um… I’d be very surprised if the Marlins would trade Josh Johnson (whom I’d expect to see higher on this list) for Felix.
Overall, I like the list so far. But I feel there is one player who is not being recognized, as he seldom is. Ryan Zimmerman is a proven 5.5+ WAR player who is signed to a below market contract, and I feel he should be one of the top 50 commodities in baseball. Given that we’re already at #20, its unlikely he’ll be listed in the future. For reference, Dave listed him as #43 last year during his breakout season when he had one more year on his contract, and I can’t see him making the list. He was snubbed last year, and he’s snubbed again this year.
If he doesn’t make the list something is definitely wrong. I’m still holding out hope though.
I’m expecting him to be in the 20-16 post, but if he’s not on the list at all, it’ll be extremely shocking, especially given that he wasn’t mentioned in the “didn’t quite make it” during the intro. He’s a top 3 3rd baseman, only 25 years old, and has a relatively cheap 5-year contract.
I get the point of all this, but Pujols needs to be higher than this, even with his age/contract. But I agree it is really hard to figure out where on this list. Winning is so fungible that you really should weight current wins way more than the future wins and his option for next year is $16mm, which for a guy of his ability means you’d get a ton of surplus value. but whatever, pretty minor quibble…
I agree — Pujols is such a special case in terms of raw production. I doubt any teams that have reasonable resources would trade Pujols for Carlos Santana 1-for-1.
Point: kershaw
and
Johnson, and lincecum for that matter, pitch in the offensively inferior DH-less national league. ERA’s run .4 runs lower Cross the board. And yet Felix continues to impress in the AL, posting. A 2.49 ERA last year.
Lol @ inferior. How do you think the AL East would look against the pitching of the NL West? The East’s offense wouldn’t be as good and the West’s pitching wouldn’t be as good. But way to be a totally ignorant fool.
How do you think the AL East would look against the pitching of the NL West?
Really good?
in what way is it ignorant to ignore the different contexts of the NL West versus the AL?
oops, I mean “in what way is it ignorant to ACKNOWLEDGE the context”…
are you contending that the offense in the NL-West is NOT inferior to that in the AL?
The NL West is not inferior to the AL East, yes. Possibly it’s the fact that the 4th best team is 6 games over .500, but i’m not sure. But the division with the best pitching in baseball, by a good margin, obviously wouldn’t be able to take the mighty AL East…right? Obviously not…God this crap is old and played out. If they went head to head the NL West’s pitching wouldn’t be as good, but the AL East’s hitting wouldn’t be nearly as good either. “Good pitching beats good hitting.” It’s funny that this statement is backed up just about every time.
OK…. you are denying that the NL West is inferior to the AL East. I’m sorry but you are not in a position to call other people “ignorant”…
BTW – I’m saying this as a Padres fan.
You need to work on your personal biases…
In the context of this discussion, who cares how good the pitching in the NL is? We’re talking lineups. Kershaw faces weaker lineups than AL pitchers, and you can’t really argue with that.
Batpig
You are delusional if you think the AL East is this unstoppable force that cannot be beaten. Good pitching beats good hitting. At the very least the AL East might be slightly better, but not by some wide ass margin like you seem to think. This isn’t a bias, it’s looking at the statistics. Do you mean to tell me the best pitching team in baseball couldn’t beat the best hitting team in baseball? That’s really sad because you are a Padres fan, and I’m willing to bet the Padres could take 4 of 7 from the Red Sox with how their pitching has been.
Obviously we both know the Padres are pitching over their heads, but as long as they are still doing that, they are hard to score on.
Good pitching beats good hitting.
And this is my clue to move along.
Ahem, good pitching will beat good hitting except when good hitting beats good pitching.
The pitching in the AL East isn’t exactly shabby…
Okay, but Felix also pitches in one of the biggest pitchers parks in baseball AND in front of one of the best defenses. And it’s not like the AL West is such an offensive power house.
The No. 1 most valuable asset is obviously a right-handed hitting third baseman in the American League East.
Eva Longoria? The actress? No way. This guy’s name is Mike Lowell. Everyone seems to want him, he must be valuable.
- Peter Gammons
I think you guys are going a bit crazy with the whole “youth and pre arb” thing here. Sure these players are great assets but for teams making trades to acquire superstars, they’re probably looking more for the “proven” types. Baseball teams make lots of money, people who own baseball teams are rich. Even baseball teams that aren’t very good are able to afford young phenoms at big contracts (e.g. Seattle and Felix Hernandez), just about any team that’s a “contender” (Texas not withstanding, the bankruptcy thing kinda makes things difficult…ditto the Dodgers and the Padres with the divorce) would gladly take on Felix Hernandez’s contract. They’d also probably rather have Felix Hernandez than Carlos Santana simply because he maximizes the value of their current roster. New York, Boston, Minnesota, Detroit, Chicago (both), and LA would gladly take on Felix’s contract. The fact that a team that really had zero aspirations of a WS in the immediate future (two years or so) gave him 80 million dollars shows just how valuable he is, and that the best is yet to come.
Maybe not Carlos Santana since a catcher who can consistently qualify for the league leaders at catcher is rare…but you get my point.
So the Dodgers will have 3 guys in the top 20? This list is niiice!
You’re kidding right?
Am I?
Hopefully?
Not sure what other Dodgers might still reasonably be expected to show up on this list.
I understand the point of this exercise, and for the most part think the list is solid to date. However, I really have a hard time buying Pujols down at #22. Based on the introductory article/explination to this series, that means you think there are 21 players in baseball whom GMs would not trade in a 1 for 1 deal for Albert. Even considering the massive contract he is due that seems like a reach.
I don’t know, I just don’t think it would be wise to trade a carlos santana (and I guess by default the top 20) for half a season of one of the greatest sluggers ever. I can certainly see why the decision was made.
I can see the argument, especially since a trading team has no guarantee of re-signing him after the season. I just feel like there are players whose production is so consistently special that dollar figures don’t have as severe an impact on percieved value in the eyes of a GM. It’s the same reason I’m curious about Joe Mauer being left off. I have a hard time believing that his $180 million contract means there are at least 50 players GMs would say “no” to the Twins in a potential 1 for 1 deal.
It’s impossible to completely figure out how GMs value players, and this list does a nice job attempting to objectively quantify players’ trade value. But it also turns into more or less a ranking of performance relative to contract/control, and I think there are special cases like Pujols or Mauer where hall of fame production could outweigh $$$$ in the eyes of GMs.
I don’t think it’s a stretch. Look at Carlos Santana immediately ahead of him. I don’t think most teams would trade six years of Carlos Santana for one year of Albert Pujols, especially a team in the situation the Indians find themselves in. Of course there are some teams who might make the trade to win now, but I think it’s a pretty reasonable ranking to have Pujols down this far.
So hypothetically, what if Pujols was signed to a 7yr/$200 million contract? Would that change his trade value? I’m trying to figure out if it’s only having 1/2 a year of production guaranteed or the impending mega contract that drives his trade value down more…even though I know it’s both.
Well then that’s a ton of money that you can’t spend to get better at other positions. Plus all the risk associated with him declining and you being stuck paying him almost 30 million a year when he doesn’t deserve it.
Look at the subject of Mauer. He’s guaranteed a ton of money. Sure he’ll probably earn it and then some, but it limits what the team can do elsewhere and there’s always the chance something happens to affect his hitting or (more importantly in his case) his fielding. If Mauer suddenly had to move to 1B or DH that contract would look horrible.
Package Bruce up with Arroyo?
The Reds now have 6 starters with Volquez back
I’m surprised Santana is this high. It’s defensible, but I’m always afraid of Young Catcher Stagnation Syndrome.
I think one of the things that this list needs to consider more is the fact that a win tomorrow is worth more than a win a year from now. I forget where that comes from but I’m pretty sure its true.
Thought I would have seen Andrew McCutchen by now. Unless the control through 2016 pushed him into the top 20?
Carlos Gonzalez isn’t on the list but Jay Bruce is this high. Not sure how that works….same service time, Gonzalez is a better hitter, runner and fielder, has better tools….is the year and half of age really that big a difference maker?
the author already made clear his issue with Carlos Gonzalez — that his plate discipline issues will limit his ultimate offensive potential. Jay Bruce, on the other hand, is projected to an offensive force. Obviously, if you don’t believe that projection, then it seems silly… and I don’t disagree with you really, because Carlos Gonzalez has more value as a CF. But Jay Bruce is getting a lot of “bonus credit” for how studly of a prospect he was and all that projection.
The age difference is very important. Jay Bruce already had 40+ homers and a 200+ ISO in the major leagues before his 23rd birthday, an age at which CarGo was overmatched in the majors. For a hitter to have that kind of success, that young, usually portends greatness.
A year from now of course this could look silly if Bruce never takes the “leap” that some are assuming he will… but there aren’t many guys in the majors who are better bets to turn into 40 HR hitters in the next couple of years.
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