2010 Trade Value: #50 -#46
And we’re off. Introduction here if you missed it.
#50 – Domonic Brown, OF, Philadelphia
The guy that most people consider the best prospect left in the minors, Brown is also the guy that was famously off-limits in the Roy Halladay trade. When your organization won’t trade you, straight up, for the best pitcher in baseball (who is signing a three year, below market deal as part of the trade, no less), you’ve got quite a bit of value. There’s a pretty good chance that Brown could be a solid major league player tomorrow, and his physical size and abilities give him serious upside. Young power hitters who can also handle themselves on defense are pretty rare and highly coveted.
#49 – Phil Hughes, SP, New York
The former top prospect started to live up to his billing last year and has carried it over to 2010, establishing himself as a solid middle-of-the-rotation arm at age 24. He has good command of quality stuff, and while he’s a pretty extreme flyball guy, he makes it work by racking up a lot of strikeouts. That he’s been able to succeed in a park that’s about as poor a fit for his skillset as possible (all 11 of his home runs allowed this year have come at Yankee Stadium) is highly impressive. Considering that he’s under team control through 2013 at arbitration prices, he’s quite the bargain.
#48 – Ricky Romero, SP, Toronto
Romero has stumbled of late, but his emergence as one of the better young left-handed pitchers in the game couldn’t have come at a better time for the Jays. While he’ll never entirely replace Halladay, he’s doing a pretty decent impression for a 25-year-old in his second year in the big leagues. A groundball lefty with a plus change-up, Romero is able to miss enough bats to compensate for the fact that he doesn’t have great command. He’s not an ace, but considering he’ll make something close to the league minimum again next year before becoming arbitration eligible, he’s providing a lot of return on the Blue Jays investment.
#47 – Martin Prado, 2B, Atlanta
The ultimate performance over tools guy in the big leagues right now, Prado’s success is a testament to how pedigree doesn’t mean everything. This is a guy who hit 15 home runs in 2,119 minor league plate appearances, and was simply not considered much of a prospect when he got to the big leagues. However, for the last three years, he’s been one of the best second baseman in baseball, adding some power to his already good contact rates and turning himself into a legitimate All-Star this season. He’s headed for his prime years as an already good player, and the Braves have him under control for three more seasons. He might be the most unexpected guy on this list, but he’s earned his spot here.
#46 – Mat Latos, SP, San Diego
Latos wasn’t great last year as a rookie, but his second stint through the National League has been a lot more successful. The fastball command that was his hallmark in the minors has returned, and the slider is good enough to give him a strikeout pitch on most days. As a result, he’s having a terrific season as a 22-year-old, and while he’s benefiting from Petco and the National League, he fares well even after you adjust for those external effects. With five more years of team control, the Padres have to be thrilled with how quickly Latos has developed and just how much value they’ll be able to get from him before he heads to free agency.
Dave, how about putting up last year’s rank after each player’s name?
I’m glad to see Prado getting some recognition.
Yes, I would love to see this too. Even though I could just look at the list myself: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2009-mlb-trade-value-recap/
WHERE’S PABLO SANDOVAL?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?
You’re welcome.
I’m a huge Latos fan, but haven’t gotten to see a great quantity of his starts. Anybody have any insight on his arm action, fastball life, demeanor, etc?
Not sure what you mean by demeanor, but he’s supposed to be kind of a prick.
you might be, too, if your parents gypped you out of a t.
His arm action is really weird. When he breaks his hands he immediately jabs his right hand basically to his belt buckle and then behind his back, but gets his arm through fast and late from a high arm slot. I’m guessing this gives him some good deception on the fastball, doesn’t have a ton of run on it but it has good life. His slider is very good with basically straight down break and very good depth. Haven’t seen a 3rd pitch
I played highschool baseball at Coconut Creek High, the same school as Latos, last season. Before the MLB season kicked off, he came back to coach us up and he is kind of a douchebag. Like, around the guys he is cool as fuck but I could see him being a giant jackass if you associated with him too much. He K’d me looking on 4 pitches though.
Latos is going to be special. He throws two fastballs (4-S, 2-S), and commands both well to both halves of the plate. He has a sharp slider which he’s still refining in terms of command. He also has a hard, 12-6 curve which is developing quickly and an above average change up.
His biggest problem is his choppy mechanics. He’s a little herky-jerky, and he tends to overthrow from time to time. Early in the year he’d try to hump up on the FB when he got in trouble, but he’s backing off of that and throwing more change ups lately. He tends to get grounders and fly outs early, then rack up strike outs late. He’s virtually unhittable from the 5th inning on.
He can let his emotions get the better of him on occasion, but he’s been better about that over the last six weeks or so. He’s earned impressive wins over the Rays, Mets and Jays recently. He tends to get better the second time he sees a team.
Seems like Latos should be rated higher, but pitchers are much harder to rate than everyday guys. But I’ve gotta yell at you right now for putting Dom Brown, he of the 0 career PA over Carlos Gonzalez. I agree that his approach needs a ton of work, but his power, speed, and defense are legit. Just had to vent a little bit about a prospect – a really good one, but none the less – being in over a guy who is single-handedly carrying his offense at the age of 24.
I’ll venture a guess and say that Latos’ relatively low number of professional innings pitched is reason for him being here (and maybe the fact that he pitches in Petco). The guy probably shouldn’t pitch more than 150-160 innings this year, so it’ll take at least another season before he can be fully let off the leash.
Just like it was dumb last year for Heyward to be ahead of Sandoval right?
Do you really think any team would Domonic Brown straight up for Carlos Gonzalez? Because that’s the way you measure this. Keep in mind that Gonzalez has 4 years left under club control, and only one of them will be cheap, while Brown’s still ticketed for a full 6 years, 3 of which he’ll make next to the league minimum.
I don’t think the Phillies make that trade. I don’t think if the universe experiences 28 bizarre counterfactual time and space warps where everything is the same except Brown gets planted in a different organization each time that any team makes that trade (sidenote: that’d be crazy, no?). Ergo, Brown has more market value. At least in my opinion. And Dave’s.
best comment ever
You also can’t include Halladay’s extension as part of Brown’s value. While its true that it increased the value Philadelphia got out of the deal, it was something that was unique to Philadelphia. Had Roy Halladay agreed to that same deal with the Blue Jays he would not have been traded – with or without Dom Brown being in the deal.
..he didn’t
he just used that anecdote as a testament to Brown’s value
Maybe I’m alone, I just find it contradictory that he would include that as a part of Brown’s value. Especially in a series that is all about value to the league as a whole – remember, Halladay also had a no-trade clause and said he wouldn’t resign with Toronto on a discount – he controlled his own destiny. I’m not trying to denounce Dave’s selection here, I like Dom Brown too, just thought the Halladay extension part was extraneous.
No, see, he’s saying that Brown’s value is so high that the Phillies weren’t willing to trade him even though they were getting the best pitcher in baseball at a discount. It’s not PART of his trade value. It’s a sign of his value. Like, “I wouldn’t trade my car for your car even if you threw in $500″ doesn’t mean that the $500 is “part” of the car’s value. It’s just saying that the margin between Brown and Halladay’s conctracts (to the Phillies) was greater than the added value of Halladay’s extension.
Though it’s always possible they didn’t know how sweet of an extension they were gonna get before they opened the negotiation window.
The fact that the Phillies got a window to negotiate an extension as a condition of the trade made what they were getting more valuable. The fact that Domonic Brown wasn’t included is a testament to how highly the Phillies valued him, but it’s also a testament to how strong the upper ranks of their farm system was at the time of the trade. Drabek and Taylor were excellent prospects in their own right, so you’re right it isn’t direct evidence of Brown’s market value, but it’s a useful anecdote to understand the value his current team places on him. As in, “untouchable even when we’re getting one of the best pitchers alive.”
guess Big Z will be in the top 45.
hah!
I will be #1!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
big Z should write for fangraphs.
If Dave really wanted to make us laugh he would put the Mariners at #6 on this list too.
#6: Justin Smoak
You should do a least tradable list.
Here’s a ‘least tradable list’ that I compiled:
http://www.mlbdepthcharts.com/2010/07/hardest-to-trade-players-in-baseball.html
No Barry Zito?!?! What kind of bad contract list is that?!?!
The least tradable list would be fun.
My Cubs have a nice few.
Zambrano
Fukudome
Soriano
And of course our 2010 whipping boys, Lee and Ramirez.
I am the most easily tradable!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Ryan Howard would be near the top of the least tradable list.
Garret Anderson is the absolute zero point of trade value.
Anyone know where I can find Gary Mathews Jr.?
Garrett is pathetic, but you still wouldn’t trade him away for Ryan Howard. Not with that contract.
Don’t forget Vernon Wells.
I wonder if any more Blue Jays will be on this list.. I bet Hill and Lind might have been before this year started. Travis Snider? We’ll see!
Also I completely disagree about Martin Prado being that valuable..
go back to sleep, lorenzo.
I kind of agree, but only because I don’t see Atlanta refusing an offer of Brown for Prado straight up (or Philadelphia offering it, even if they didn’t have Utley). In relation to the other guys I think he’s in the right ballpark. I just think Brown’s pretty valuable in his own right, and teams have a natural inclination to inflate the value of guys who haven’t seen the majors yet.
There’s no way that the Braves would consider trading Prado for Brown. No contender would consider a trade like that. They’re just completely different types of assets, so any comparison like that is going to depends on the teams situation. Prado is a (mostly) finished product that gives very good offense, along with average defense, at 2B. He’s under team control for 3 more years at well below market value. Brown is a high upside guy that’s under team control for 6, but the chances of him ever playing at the level that Prado currently is are relatively modest. That’s why they’re close on the list.
You’re talking today. I’m talking vacuum. In a vacuum, I think most teams would take Brown with his contract situation over Prado’s with his. This exercise is not supposed to be dependent on the team’s present win-loss situation.
In a vacuum its pretty close to being a dead heat (thus them being ranked so closely). Prado is a proven player with 3 cheap seasons left. Brown is a heck of a prospect, but he’s still just a prospect. Chances are he’s never as good as Prado currently is, and if he does reach that level its likely not for a few years (so even though you’re getting more seasons, its likely a few of them won’t even be good or even average).
Also, I think you missed the point of my post. I wasn’t saying Prado should rank ahead of Brown because the Braves in their current state wouldn’t trade for them. I was rather making the point that they are assets of similar overall value that are completely dissimilar. One is a high-upside prospect, one is a proven all star. Which one you prefer is likely going to be based on your teams position. Given that, they should be ranked right around one another. Debating over a few spots for assets this dissimilar just seems silly to me.
Prado is a proven 3-win player who will probably be worth something more like 4.5 wins this year. He’s a very good hitter, but I’m a bit skeptical that he’ll carry his .330+ average forward, and without that, he loses a lot of value. The next 3 years I see him as a 3-win player.
I think 6 years of the top prospect in baseball is worth more than that. Brown has 5-6 win upside, and given where he’s at in AAA, I’d be shocked if he doesn’t become a 3 win or better player.
If you look at your post objectively, you’d see how you have to massage the facts to make a good case for Brown. Prado is not “just” a 3 win player. He’s averaged better than 3.4 WAR per 162 games through his entire ML career, and he still hasn’t yet reached the age where most guys peak. I’d feel perfectly comfortable projecting him for 4 WAR a year for the next 3 years and that’s probably on the conservative side. Even if he can’t maintain his current AVG, that’s perfectly doable as he posted a 3.1 WAR season in just 503 PA last season with a more reasonable .307 AVG.
Honestly, if you’d be shock that Brown wouldn’t average 3 WAR a year for his first 6 years, you haven’t been following prospects all that long. Delmon Young was considered a better prospect than Brown and he still hasn’t been worth a single win over his entire career. Matt Wieters was considered one of the best prospects of the last few decades and he’s only been a roughly average player so far. If Brown averages 3 WAR a year for the next 6 years the Phils should be ecstatic. Throw in the fact that we’re actually comparing him to a 4 WAR player and you can see where your argument starts to breakdown.
Prado’s approaching his peak years would mean more if he had any kind of projectability. It’s not like you can really dream on much more power than he’s already shown. His value has been driven by batting average for three straight years. He is a very good player, but he’s also one whose secondary skills scare me. Normalize the BABIP, and Prado starts looking a whole lot more like a quality player and less like a star. It’s not like he has Ichiro’s blazing speed that makes him an exception who we can expect to keep running .350+ BABIPs, either.
Ooh, we’re making the 1 example disproves the rule then? Ok, well you’re stupid for thinking a guy in his mid-20s will keep hitting. I mean, look at Richard Hidalgo.
Let’s not resort to insults. I am well aware of prospect attrition rates, and have likely been at this game longer than you have. Pointing to one former #1 who didn’t live up to the hype (which, by the way, not everyone bought into at the time, and if TINSTAAPP wasn’t in full swing back in 2004 Felix would likely have been ranked #1) isn’t an argument. It’s the baseball equivalent of Godwin’s law. Take a look through BA’s rankings from the last 10 years and show me one season where the majority of the top-10 batting prospects didn’t become useful major leaguers. I’ve done the analysis in the past: it doesn’t happen. The closest you get is during the years where 2-3 of the top prospects got slammed by age gate.
Delmon Young was also ranked at a time when the analytical community had not even yet begun placing any kind of value on defense. Domonic Brown’s glove is far more advanced.
Writing someone off because he’s “just a prospect” is just deeply flawed analysis. There is built-in risk with all major leaguers. Skills are skills, and Domonic Brown has the best combination of skills and tools in the minors. I don’t think many teams would trade his 6 club-control years for the expensive part of Martin Prado’s.
Seriously?!?!? Let’s go through this a paragraph at a time.
1. I wasn’t implying that Prado should be expected to make vast improvements. I brought up the fact that he was approaching his prime years as a reason his numbers shouldn’t be expected to regress (as you implied by projecting him as a 3 win player) and might even be expected to improve some (not on this season’s numbers, but rather his career to date numbers).
Why would you just normalize his BABIP to league average? We’re not talking about a pitcher here. Hitters have a great deal of control over their BABIP and in Prado’s case we have a hefty sample size (almost 1300 PA) where he has posted a .341BABIP. And speed isn’t the only thing that allows hitters to post above average BABIP. Look at Youkilis or Helton’s career BABIP. Neither is fast, but both have a career BABIP in excess of .330 because of their high LD rates. Prado is another hitter that will continually post above average BABIP because of a high LD rate.
2. I wasn’t using Wieters and Young as proof that Brown won’t be successful. Rather, I was pointing out examples of more highly regarded prospects who didn’t live up to expectations right out of the gate. Assuming that Brown will immediately begin averaging a 3+ WAR is overly optimistic.
Also, I find it funny that you call me stupid immediately before saying let’s not resort to insults, especially because…
3. I wasn’t insulting you. I was simply pointing out that only expecting a prospect to average 3 WAR out of the gate is really optimistic. I wouldn’t expect someone who follows prospects closely to project such a thing. Especially when the guy is considered a weak top prospect.
As for your challenge on BA’s lists, I’ll get to that in my next post, but I don’t think you’re going to like what you see. What did you find in your own analysis?
And seriously, the baseball equivalent of Godwin’s Law? What does that even mean? Did you just compare bringing up the riskiness of prospects to people bringing up Nazi’s in online discussions? I’m confused…
4. Young was supposed to be a good defender when he came up. He was supposed to have the arm for RF and good range for a corner OF. Sure, Brown probably is more highly thought of defensively, but its not a big difference. Young was viewed as an above average defender for a corner OF, while Brown is thought of as a good defender for a corner OF.
5. I didn’t write Brown off in any way, shape, or form. I’ve simply said he is a risky asset than Prado, while agreeing that he certainly has more upside. Like I’ve said from the start, they have similar values. You’re the one arguing one is clearly more valuable than the other.
I don’t think most people would agree with you on Brown having the best combination of skills and tools in the minors. That distinction would almost certainly go to Mike Trout, though the consensus would have Brown ranked higher because he’s closer and more polished. Brown is also the best of a relatively bad situation right now. The current minor league crop is pretty weak, with virtually no high upside, polished bats left in the minors.
I wonder about Hughes going forward, in terms of this list. His raises in arb are going to be fairly substantial, and his league minimum years are now entirely behind him.
Sabermetrics – white kids finding new ways to hate brown people.
Pompousness – acting self-righteous while clothed in ignorance.
This is a bad troll, because it doesn’t even lay out a half assed argument which could draw a long winded retort.
Try harder next time.
Domonic Brown people?
Will Angel Pagan appear on this list?
Omar Infante? He’s an All Star, so he must be quite valuable…
lol high five for taking a jab at a guy living his dream!
The sad part is that the Mets would probably trade him straight up for at least a 100 other players.
Disagree with Dave’s Brown/Gonzalez analysis. Rather than thinking about trades, we might as well evaluate two players against each other by saying “given the choice of one or the other, would they take X or y?” I’m pretty sure 16 or more of the teams in the league would take Gonzalez’s two fewer team control years and status as a known 4.5 tool commodity over Brown’s potential.
I think the honest to god best comparison for Browns conterpart in the big leagues is exactly Carlos Gonzalez. So for me an argument for either is moot. Theyre very similar players. Lefty 5 tool outfielders. I expect Brown to be an instant impact player, for a miniscule contract for the next 5 years. That is why he is so valuable
By known 4.5 tool commodity, you mean a player with 980 PA’s, in which he’s produced an OPS+ of 106 while getting about 35% of those PA’s in one of baseball’s best hitter’s parks in which he’s produced an OPS+ of 149. This year, he’s .359/.399/.653 at home and a Benjie Molina-like .266/.287/.405 away from Coors.
Don’t get me wrong…I think that Cargo also has the potential to have an outstanding career. At the same time, I’m not so sure that 16 or more of the teams in the league would take Cargo and his 2 fewer years of team control over Brown.
Pretty easy to drag down his accomplishments if you include his awful 2008 with the A’s, when he was with a terrible team getting way too many PAs at age 22. Chop that out of the picture, which I think is fair considering he shouldn’t have even been in the majors, his career OPS+ is at 122. I don’t care what the home/road splits are (gee, you think Brown might have the same issue one day, playing half his games at CBP?): a 3+ WAR player is a 3+ WAR player is a 3+ WAR player. If Brown comes up and has that kind of impact after 900 PAs, I’ll be the first to admire him. Until then, I still think more than half the teams in the league go with Gonzalez if given the option.
That’s tOPS+, which compares his Coors numbers to his overall numbers. That makes the difference between Coors and non-Coors even larger, but skewing things a bit are just under half of those non-Coors plate appearances coming during his poor offensive showing with the A’s in ’08. Park factors account for the fact that he’s already expected to hit ~20% better at Coors, and Coors being his home park we’d expect the gap to be even larger than that.
Dealing just with his time as a Rockie, strikeouts (16% K/PA home, 29% road) seem to be fueling the massive divide between his home and road numbers more than anything else. Normalizing his K/AB—not the most accurate exercise since Coors does drive down strikeout rates—and keeping the other rates the same—also maybe not the best assumption—his .334/.620 AVG/SLG at Coors and .264/.434 away become a much more reasonable .303/.561 and .289/.475—the gap in slugging is halved and in average nearly eliminated even before considering the requisite small sample size caveats and the regression they entail.
In the most polite way as possible, this let is terrible lol. I shot soda out my nose while reading this. Most of these players wouldn’t be traded anyway and young pitching is always at a premium. I’m sorry but this list isn’t very good.
this is a game of “what would it take” that attempts to measure what players are the most valuable to a team going forward both in terms of production, and what that production costs. It is not necessarily a ranking of players by talent, rather a combination of talent, contract, upside and projection
When Romero has his curveball and change up working, he certainly looks like an ace. He’s definitely not there yet, but he has the potential to be.
Surprised to see so many pitchers on the list so far. When Steve did the Best 50 Players of the Next 5 Years projections, aging curves just killed pitchers and we had five in the top fifty.
Makes inexpensive, young arms all that more valuable.
I expected to see rickie weeks on here, with nearly 20 home runs and a ton of rbi’s
I think Starlin Castro deserves to be in in the Top 50. Right?
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