2010 ZiPS!
The 2010 ZiPS projections courtesy of Dan Szymborski of Baseball Think Factory are now available in the player pages and sortable formats.
This wraps up the projections we’ll be carrying on FanGraphs this year and ZiPS, just like last year, will be updated daily all season long.
David Appelman is the creator of FanGraphs.
Amazing! This site could literally not get any better
Who makes Zips? How is it calculated? Just from my first glance through, there are a few very optimistic projections in there. Vlad and Manny.
You might try reading the intro at the top, or clicking on the link to Baseball Think Factory. I’m pretty sure doing those things would have answered your questions.
While there isn’t really much difference between the best projection systems — CHONE, ZiPS, pre-2009 PECOTA, CAIRO, Oliver, heck even Marcel — ZiPS does appear to have a slight advantage on the pitcher side of things.
Love that these are updated daily. If I remember correctly, it’s some sort of Bayesian process, right, not a full-blown projection recalculation? An article on that process would be cool.
Oh, the process is very simple – it just dynamically changes the weights based on how many games are played in the season (and since the projection is, in essence, the sum expectation of previous years, you can use that as the input instead of having to look back at those previous years again). There are ways to do it in a slightly more accurate way, but nothing with the same ease of implementation, which is extremely important.
Finally! These have all been done for a month. Thanks!
No FIP…? What…?
any chance of zips incorporating an average of projections?
Do any of the other projections get updated daily? I know there was a method for updating the Marcels on a daily basis that THT used to use.
Last year there was a zips “rest of season line” on all players.
Right, I understand that. I was wondering about the other projection systems.
Thanks, Dan and David! I always like having both CHONE and ZiPS projections available here so that I have two reliable projections for each player.
Has it already been asked if the ZIPs, assuming they will be posted here this year, can be posted as they are released by BTF? Since they come out team by team and many players are already available. Or do we have to wait until mid March again when they are all done? Thanks either way.