2011 Bill James Handbook Projections!

Kicking off projection season, as usual, are the 2011 Bill James Handbook Projections, courtesy of Baseball Info Solutions.

They’re available right now in the player pages!

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David Appelman is the creator of FanGraphs.

33 Responses to “2011 Bill James Handbook Projections!”

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  1. chumpchange says:

    If I remember correctly, last year the basic spreadsheet was available for free download. Does anyone know if that will be the case again this year?

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    • chumpchange says:

      I think I remember now that a pdf file (non-sortable) was available for free last year. Doesn’t look like that’s being offered this year. Oh well, the sortable spreadsheet on its own appears to only cost $10.

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      • As far as FanGraphs goes, we’ve only ever had the Bill James projections in the player pages and didn’t supply a PDF. This is because it’s not one of the “free” projection systems. The free ones (CHONE, ZiPS, Marcel) we typically have sortable and exportable on the site.

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  2. chomO says:

    I find these projections to be wildly optimistic and not really accurate at all.

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    • BritJay says:

      While its fine to consider them optimistic it is statistically nonsensical to call a projection innacurate before the events in question have occured.

      Additionally I assume Bill James knows a bit about baseball statistics and therefore the total average wOBA of all projections comes out around the league average (which varies a little year to year).

      I propose that you looked at the projections of a few players you think will regress next year and the projections were more optimistic than you are and you therefore passed judgement on the most widely respected baseball statistition among us.

      Pride fail.

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    • max says:

      Thats the idea. When viewing the Bill James projections, think this: “If lots of things go right for (player x), this is what their season will look like.”

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      • Mike D says:

        Case in point: Ryan Kalish

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      • CircleChange11 says:

        It has been explained, the James suppposes or uses a slightly different “run environment” than the other projection systems. So, the players he projects should be compared to other players he projects, versus making across the board comparisons … or something like that.

        To me, if true, seems goofy. I don’t understand why I, as a stats fan, should need to later my baseline depending on what projections I am reading.

        Granted, I don’t pay anything for them, and I am not complaining as if I were.

        I do enjoy reading comments of people pointing out projections that are incorrect. Do you know something I don’t? Have you developed a projection system that displays high accuracy?

        The projections are all based off a weighted average of past performance, combined with age trends, and environments, perhaps with some owner tweaks thrown in. But, it’s not like the projections are pulled out of somewhere dark and stinky.

        Projections are what they are.

        I’m not sure where the James “run environemnt” information was, but if interested, you can probably locate it.

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    • Stocktopus says:

      I just posted a couple polls in my blog about his projections. The predictions people are Stanton: 38 HR, Cliff Lee: 3.50 ERA, Mariano Rivera: 1.89 ERA, and Ellsbury: 59 SB. I feel like some of those are a little off, but whatever. come vote if you’re interested in seeing what other people think http://waitingfordraftday.blogspot.com/2010/11/2011-predictions.html

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  3. Sea Wolf says:

    Is it possible to have the prior year projections available on the player pages as well? You could have an on/off toggle like there is for the current year projections.

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  4. Matt Defalco says:

    Appelman, would it be possible to include projections for the “league leaders” page?

    It would be cool to be able to sort the predicted stats for the next seasons during the offseason, as well as seeing who could be considered next season’s early MVP candidate.

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  5. Frank says:

    Here are a few I was curious about:

    Mike Stanton: 38 HRs, .391 wOBA

    Carlos Gonzalez: 28 HRs, .390 wOBA

    Justin Upton: 23 HRs, .379 wOBA

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    • Evan says:

      I was surprised at Pablo’s numbers which seemed pretty optimistic to me

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    • Choo says:

      “Mike Stanton: 38 HRs, .391 wOBA”

      When it comes to public displays of man love, Bill James is not a shy man. He just can’t get enough of those young power hitters. Last year it was Chris Davis. The year before that it was somebody else and so on. I enjoy his projections for what they are. Fun. Between now and April, virtually every player will be dubbed as a breakout candidate by somebody somewhere.

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      • MikeD says:

        James does not add his own personal feelings into his equations. It’s purely statistics driven based on formulas he’s developed over the years.

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  6. Dugan says:

    Ryan Kalish with 20 hrs and 43 steals…did Bill James become his agent :-)

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  7. Chris says:

    Will these projections be added to the iPhone app through an update? Last year we could see these in the app, but so far nothing for 2011.

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  8. Will says:

    Huff – back to ~ 3 year averages (.348 OBP/.453 SLG)
    Burrell – remarkably similar stats to this years’ (.351 OBP, 20 HR)
    Torres – power back to pre-2010 expectations (.340/.440)
    Sandoval – bounceback (.356/.484, 18 HR)

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  9. Matt says:

    Just a clarification, Bill James does not make these projections. Baseball solutions just brands his name to sell books

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  10. as11osu says:

    When does Chone release their projections?

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  11. Alireza says:

    Seriously, is the Kalish thing a joke from Bill?

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  12. JK says:

    Does anyone know what the league average wOBA is for this years Bill James projections.

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  13. Luke in MN says:

    Jeremy Hellickson: 5th-best starter in the AL. Jake Peavy: 7th. Odd love for Dice-K.

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  14. Ty says:

    D. Brown looks like he’ll be better than Heyward for 2011

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  15. Total Dominication says:

    I love Jesus Montero, but Bill James is expecting him to OPS 867 while being the 1st string catcher as a 21 yr old against the AL BeAST PITCHING in his rookie year? That would be the greatest rookie season for a catcher in all time, and one of the 20 greatest debut seasons ever for a 21 or younger player. If he comes close to this by 75 points, he’ll have a unanimous ALROY wrapped up by August. Still, James always seems to ovverate rookies.

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  16. MikeD says:

    Expecting more HRs or less?

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  17. Nando says:

    Does anyone know if players not currently projected for 2011 will be added at some point or is there a hard cut-off date? I noticed a few missing notable young players, including Chris Sale and J.P. Arencibia.

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  18. Ninfa Fuse says:

    I simply located your blog, I book-marked it and i am reading the posts. I undoubtedly really like it. Interesting topic in either case an individual look on it. I come by way of the view that see reviews as akin of attentive.

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  19. John Grenci says:

    Hello, I am confused as to why it is stated the James projections are not ‘free’, yet they are free. Just want to make sure these are not approximations of some sort as they are free.
    can somebody explain?

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  20. Nathan says:

    Does fangraphs update the Bill James projections on the player pages with the updated version of his projection sheets now that they came out on March 1st?

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  21. tom gorsuch says:

    Because the redsox relied so heavily on statisticians the sox aren’t playing baseball in october. in some cases too few hypotheticals were considered: how will Agone do with a right handed threat hitting next and how can he handle without. Sticking a fundamentally sound great fastball hitter (ie Jason Bay) between Agone and Ortiz: what would that reap? Having Pedroia consider occasionally swinging at a first pitch. What is the effect upon an infielder being screamed at by an unaccountable John Lackey? What is the effect of Ortiz’s salary negotiations in the heat of a pennant race. What is the consequence of a medical staff taking a sabbatical for the season.Francona’s partiality to veterans-Wakefield,Ortiz, Beckett.
    I would use stats as a tool, find a manager who is able to relate to but not acquiesce to veterans, pay relief pitchers a salary commensurate to their talent ,not their stats. In a case where the Sox must preserve a one run victory by shutting down Granderson , Tex, and Arod in the eighth , let Pap do it. Platoon Ortiz. Stop overating AGone’s stats. He is a double play waiting to happen: by hitting into it or running into it.
    Supposedly, Billy Beane focuses almost exclusively on stats : he might consider watching a game or two

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