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David Appelman is the creator of FanGraphs.


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chumpchange
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chumpchange
5 years 7 months ago

If I remember correctly, last year the basic spreadsheet was available for free download. Does anyone know if that will be the case again this year?

chumpchange
Guest
chumpchange
5 years 7 months ago

I think I remember now that a pdf file (non-sortable) was available for free last year. Doesn’t look like that’s being offered this year. Oh well, the sortable spreadsheet on its own appears to only cost $10.

chomO
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chomO
5 years 7 months ago

I find these projections to be wildly optimistic and not really accurate at all.

BritJay
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BritJay
5 years 7 months ago

While its fine to consider them optimistic it is statistically nonsensical to call a projection innacurate before the events in question have occured.

Additionally I assume Bill James knows a bit about baseball statistics and therefore the total average wOBA of all projections comes out around the league average (which varies a little year to year).

I propose that you looked at the projections of a few players you think will regress next year and the projections were more optimistic than you are and you therefore passed judgement on the most widely respected baseball statistition among us.

Pride fail.

max
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max
5 years 7 months ago

Thats the idea. When viewing the Bill James projections, think this: “If lots of things go right for (player x), this is what their season will look like.”

Mike D
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Mike D
5 years 7 months ago

Case in point: Ryan Kalish

CircleChange11
Guest
CircleChange11
5 years 7 months ago

It has been explained, the James suppposes or uses a slightly different “run environment” than the other projection systems. So, the players he projects should be compared to other players he projects, versus making across the board comparisons … or something like that.

To me, if true, seems goofy. I don’t understand why I, as a stats fan, should need to later my baseline depending on what projections I am reading.

Granted, I don’t pay anything for them, and I am not complaining as if I were.

I do enjoy reading comments of people pointing out projections that are incorrect. Do you know something I don’t? Have you developed a projection system that displays high accuracy?

The projections are all based off a weighted average of past performance, combined with age trends, and environments, perhaps with some owner tweaks thrown in. But, it’s not like the projections are pulled out of somewhere dark and stinky.

Projections are what they are.

I’m not sure where the James “run environemnt” information was, but if interested, you can probably locate it.

Stocktopus
Guest
Stocktopus
5 years 7 months ago

I just posted a couple polls in my blog about his projections. The predictions people are Stanton: 38 HR, Cliff Lee: 3.50 ERA, Mariano Rivera: 1.89 ERA, and Ellsbury: 59 SB. I feel like some of those are a little off, but whatever. come vote if you’re interested in seeing what other people think http://waitingfordraftday.blogspot.com/2010/11/2011-predictions.html

Stocktopus
Member
Stocktopus
5 years 7 months ago

Scratch That. I bit the bullet and got myself a domain name.

http://baseball-polls.com/

Sea Wolf
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Sea Wolf
5 years 7 months ago

Is it possible to have the prior year projections available on the player pages as well? You could have an on/off toggle like there is for the current year projections.

Matt Defalco
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Matt Defalco
5 years 7 months ago

Appelman, would it be possible to include projections for the “league leaders” page?

It would be cool to be able to sort the predicted stats for the next seasons during the offseason, as well as seeing who could be considered next season’s early MVP candidate.

Frank
Guest
Frank
5 years 7 months ago

Here are a few I was curious about:

Mike Stanton: 38 HRs, .391 wOBA

Carlos Gonzalez: 28 HRs, .390 wOBA

Justin Upton: 23 HRs, .379 wOBA

Evan
Guest
Evan
5 years 7 months ago

I was surprised at Pablo’s numbers which seemed pretty optimistic to me

Choo
Member
5 years 7 months ago

“Mike Stanton: 38 HRs, .391 wOBA”

When it comes to public displays of man love, Bill James is not a shy man. He just can’t get enough of those young power hitters. Last year it was Chris Davis. The year before that it was somebody else and so on. I enjoy his projections for what they are. Fun. Between now and April, virtually every player will be dubbed as a breakout candidate by somebody somewhere.

MikeD
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MikeD
5 years 7 months ago

James does not add his own personal feelings into his equations. It’s purely statistics driven based on formulas he’s developed over the years.

Dugan
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Dugan
5 years 7 months ago

Ryan Kalish with 20 hrs and 43 steals…did Bill James become his agent :-)

Chris
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Chris
5 years 7 months ago

Will these projections be added to the iPhone app through an update? Last year we could see these in the app, but so far nothing for 2011.

Will
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Will
5 years 7 months ago

Huff – back to ~ 3 year averages (.348 OBP/.453 SLG)
Burrell – remarkably similar stats to this years’ (.351 OBP, 20 HR)
Torres – power back to pre-2010 expectations (.340/.440)
Sandoval – bounceback (.356/.484, 18 HR)

Matt
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Matt
5 years 7 months ago

Just a clarification, Bill James does not make these projections. Baseball solutions just brands his name to sell books

as11osu
Guest
as11osu
5 years 7 months ago

When does Chone release their projections?

Alireza
Guest
5 years 7 months ago

Seriously, is the Kalish thing a joke from Bill?

JK
Guest
JK
5 years 7 months ago

Does anyone know what the league average wOBA is for this years Bill James projections.

Luke in MN
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Luke in MN
5 years 7 months ago

Jeremy Hellickson: 5th-best starter in the AL. Jake Peavy: 7th. Odd love for Dice-K.

Ty
Guest
Ty
5 years 7 months ago

D. Brown looks like he’ll be better than Heyward for 2011

Total Dominication
Guest
Total Dominication
5 years 7 months ago

I love Jesus Montero, but Bill James is expecting him to OPS 867 while being the 1st string catcher as a 21 yr old against the AL BeAST PITCHING in his rookie year? That would be the greatest rookie season for a catcher in all time, and one of the 20 greatest debut seasons ever for a 21 or younger player. If he comes close to this by 75 points, he’ll have a unanimous ALROY wrapped up by August. Still, James always seems to ovverate rookies.

MikeD
Guest
MikeD
5 years 7 months ago

Expecting more HRs or less?

Nando
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Nando
5 years 6 months ago

Does anyone know if players not currently projected for 2011 will be added at some point or is there a hard cut-off date? I noticed a few missing notable young players, including Chris Sale and J.P. Arencibia.

Ninfa Fuse
Guest
5 years 6 months ago

I simply located your blog, I book-marked it and i am reading the posts. I undoubtedly really like it. Interesting topic in either case an individual look on it. I come by way of the view that see reviews as akin of attentive.

John Grenci
Guest
5 years 4 months ago

Hello, I am confused as to why it is stated the James projections are not ‘free’, yet they are free. Just want to make sure these are not approximations of some sort as they are free.
can somebody explain?
thanks

Nathan
Guest
Nathan
5 years 3 months ago

Does fangraphs update the Bill James projections on the player pages with the updated version of his projection sheets now that they came out on March 1st?

tom gorsuch
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tom gorsuch
4 years 8 months ago

Because the redsox relied so heavily on statisticians the sox aren’t playing baseball in october. in some cases too few hypotheticals were considered: how will Agone do with a right handed threat hitting next and how can he handle without. Sticking a fundamentally sound great fastball hitter (ie Jason Bay) between Agone and Ortiz: what would that reap? Having Pedroia consider occasionally swinging at a first pitch. What is the effect upon an infielder being screamed at by an unaccountable John Lackey? What is the effect of Ortiz’s salary negotiations in the heat of a pennant race. What is the consequence of a medical staff taking a sabbatical for the season.Francona’s partiality to veterans-Wakefield,Ortiz, Beckett.
I would use stats as a tool, find a manager who is able to relate to but not acquiesce to veterans, pay relief pitchers a salary commensurate to their talent ,not their stats. In a case where the Sox must preserve a one run victory by shutting down Granderson , Tex, and Arod in the eighth , let Pap do it. Platoon Ortiz. Stop overating AGone’s stats. He is a double play waiting to happen: by hitting into it or running into it.
Supposedly, Billy Beane focuses almost exclusively on stats : he might consider watching a game or two

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