2011 Organizational Rankings: #14 – Chicago
Although the White Sox only rank fourteenth in our overall rankings, let it be known that any organization that marries Kenny Williams with Ozzie Guillen will always be #1 in our hearts.
Present Talent – 80.45 (T-11th)
Future Talent – 65.00 (T-27th)
Financial Resources – 81.67 (T-9th)
Baseball Operations – 80.45 (12th)
Overall Rating – 78.50
When it comes to the product on the field, the White Sox continue to be above average, as they have throughout much of the Kenny Williams Era. Occasionally, they produce great teams (the 2005 World Series team) and duds (2007′s 72-90 clunker). However, the best bet for a Kenny Williams’ White Sox team is competency as opposed to greatness or mediocrity – his teams have won an average of 85 games per season since he took the reins prior to the 2001 season.
It’s not terribly difficult to understand why Williams’ teams follow this trend when we look at his general-managerial history. Williams will hit some home runs – see the Alex Rios waiver claim or the Freddy Garcia for Gavin Floyd and Gio Gonzalez trade. However, those big-impact deals can be nullified by misplays of the market, such as when the Sox took on Jake Peavy and his entirely undesirable contract while giving up four minor leaguers (including Clayton Richard) for the right to do so. Peavy only pitched 107 innings for the Sox in 2010 and is already on the shelf to begin the 2011 season.
The winter of 2011 didn’t see much turnover, but the few changes could impact the team greatly. Bobby Jenks departed in a rather unceremonious fashion. The White Sox bullpen will miss him, as would any other, but the way is now clear for Matt Thornton‘s deserved ascension to the closer’s role. Andruw Jones and Mark Kotsay are gone as designated hitters, clearing the way for the big acquisition of the winter, Adam Dunn. The addition of Dunn to a White Sox team which already scored runs at an above-average clip should turn the group into the best run-producing unit in the division. Signing Dunn represents a bit of a break from the norm for the White Sox, who typically eschew high-strikeout players like Dunn for other types of players. However, suffering through a year of Mark Kotsay at DH bludgeoned home the fact that the current strategy just wasn’t working.
With a baseball operations staff that has been together for so long and maintained a good amount of success, Chicago has earned an above-average rank in that category. Even during stretches where the farm system isn’t producing much MLB talent, Williams’ front office can maneuver three markets successfully: the trade market, the domestic free-agent market, and one of his better weapons, the international free-agent market. The 2011 version of the White Sox carry at least one and potentially two major contributors who were acquired via international free agency: Alexei Ramirez and Dayan Viciedo. If the White Sox could avoid busts like the Peavy deal, this group could move in to the top 10. As is, they will have to settle for 12th.
Williams and his team (including assistant GM Rick Hahn, who basically stole the show at one of our FanGraphs events in Arizona) will likely need to be creative to replenish lost talent over the next few years. The White Sox were the owners of the lowest-ranked farm system in baseball prior to the Brewers’ acquisitions of Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum, which pushed Milwaukee well into last place. The top of Chicago’s farm system has some decent talent, but the quality drops off sharply after the top five or so. Throw in the White Sox’s undesirable position in the upcoming draft – no picks in the first or supplemental rounds – and the farm system could remain poor for at least a couple years. It is this potential for a drought in the farm which drags the White Sox back to the pack a bit, as they rank fairly highly in every other category.
Luckily, as long as the player development crew can push a few contributors out of the system, the White Sox have the finances to buy a good amount of talent. For the fifth time in the last six years, the White Sox payroll will eclipse $100 million, and with $93.5 million on the books already for 2012, that number may never fall below $100 million again. The White Sox are in a big market and they act like it. Even if they may not have the financial pull that the Yankees or even Boston carry, they will be able to get their man in a large majority of free-agent contract negotiations. The extra money in the coffers has also allowed the Sox to bring in international free agents like Viciedo and Ramirez, as well.
The next few years will be interesting for the White Sox and their fans. The talent on the field should be enough to compete in the AL Central, if not be the Opening Day favorites. After this year, things will get interesting, as many of their current regulars are 30 or older, including Paul Konerko, Mark Buehrle, Jake Peavy, Juan Pierre, and A.J. Pierzynski. Their younger talent will hit their late arbitration and free agency years with a large fraction of the payroll tied up in the older players and a lack of big-time talent coming up through the minors to replace them. The White Sox certainly have the ability to get through the next few years with a good deal of success. When all is said and done, though, don’t be surprised if Kenny Williams and company guide the White Sox through the future at a clip of 85 wins per season, just as they have for the past decade.
I’m stunned. In the entire series I thought the ChiSox front office rating (or BaseOps) was going to be what I disagreed with the most.
I think 12th is pretty accurate. I might have him in the top 10 seeing how he acquired Floyd, Danks, Jenks, etc for nothing … and signing Teahen wasn’t the biggest travesty in the world (just an obvious, now, mistake).
Nice Job, Jack.
I think if you’re going to ding the Baseball Operations, it would be for a lack of Latin American farm system (Carlos Lee is the last Latin player the White Sox signed and developed who had any sort of success iirc; I don’t include Alexei because he was 26 when the Sox signed him). But other than that… it’s hard to find a better front office imo. Sure Kenny Williams loses all trades involving Nick Swisher, but other than that it’s hard to find a bad deal. The Peavy deal wasn’t great, but they only gave up Richard (who’s a 4th start in the NL). The Teahen deal was a disaster, true, but Danks, Floyd, Thornton, any trade involving Freddy Garcia (Kenny got him for a song remember)… Kenny’s wins are much much much greater than his losses (Swisherx2, Todd Richie).
Plus having Kenny Williams as your GM is fun since the guy makes big deals every year. He makes those trades that you dream about your team making when you’re 14 and decided that you’re going to become a baseball GM.
“He makes those trades that you dream about your team making when you’re 14 and decided that you’re going to become a baseball GM.”
This line could also be used pretty effectively in a criticism of Kenny Williams.
A lot of that is the pitching coach — which is not to say it isn’t to Williams’ credit to trade for pitchers who will benefit greatly from his pitching coach — as learning the cutter was a large part of the success of Danks, Floyd and Thornton after joining the CWS.
Ancient Mariner-
just fyi, neither Floyd nor Thornton throws a cutter, but I agree with your point otherwise
“Carlos Lee is the last Latin player the White Sox signed and developed who had any sort of success iirc”
Wow I think you need to pay a little closer attention, remember someone named Magglio Ordonez, where do you think he came from? The sox have a had some also acquired some Latin American talent, either with minor league trades or amateur drafts, remember Wilson Alvarez and Alex Fernandez from the 1990s?
What about Magglio Ordonez?
I think the perception among the casual fan or even bigger fans outside of Chicago is that Ozzie is a buffoon and KW is in over his head because of Swisher, Peavy and Teahan. Jack gives all the good counterarguments for why KW is above average but not quite elite. As a White Sox fan, even I worry that maybe Rick Hahn is behind the successes and maybe some day somebody will hire him away which could expose Williams if the perception of him is actually true.
I felt this analysis was pretty accurate and fair.
The assistant is “always” the guy behind the moves … until he isn’t. Being an assistant in a good organization appears to be completely different than being the GM for a lesser organization.
The article ends with the statement about KW leading the ChiSox to another 85 win season, and being able to basically duplicate the feat annually. While it may not sound all that impressive, compare that to the rest of White Sox history. At least now the recent talk isn;t about the 83 team or the lost 94 season.
Going into each season, the ChiSox have a decent chance at a division title. Isn’t that a GMs job?
The ChiSox for much of their 100+ year history have been an irrelevant team on the wrong side of a large market.
Acknowledging the obvious bias in my user name, I think “Ozzie is a buffoon” is an erroneous statement. He is outspoken, perhaps in a way that is occasionally detrimental to his team, but that outspoken nature has gotten the team way more attention than they have in the previous 50 years. Furthermore, he does have a title under his belt, which is more than most managers can say. Yes, managers are overrated, but Ozzie is one of the best at doing what his franchise needs him to do.
I have the White Sox at #17, so I think this one is very reasonable. They’ve had pretty good success in recent years. Their minor league system drags them down a little in the ratings.
Also is there a list anywhere of the list of teams that have been listed (17-30)? Might be nice to embed that list in each post. Thanks!
vr, Xei
The front page has a big block chart of all the teams and links to their top 10 prospects, team outlooks, and org rankings.
Jack – what’s the team’s total score? I think you forgot to include that.
Thanks, it’s in there now.
Peavy isn’t a bust QUITE yet. If he’s above average when he comes back this year, I wouldn’t sweat over losing Clayton Richard and some garbage.
Especially seeing as one of the four traded is now back with the Sox.
The Kenny Williams/Rick Hahn dynamic is one that I don’t think gets talked about very much but I find very interesting. Kenny’s background comes from the scouting aspect, while Hahn represents new-age sabermetric methodology. From my perspective in recent years, Kenny’s viewpoint has won out more (hence he’s the GM). I would love to see this team use more of a statistical approach and try to model themselves after the Boston/Tampa Bays of the world.
I know I am personally concerned about the lack of depth throughout the minor league system starting to effect the big league club starting next year and would really like to see that replenished. One thing we’ve learned in the 10 years Kenny has been in charge, he hates losing and will always strive to build a winner. The moves may not always be right, but the intent is
Having advanced stats informing the org, but not running the org is exactly the right formula in my opinion.
Model after BOS and TBR?
Those are two drastically different models, aren’t they?
I would like to see the ChiSox simply do one thing better …. the draft.
To clarify, Boston and Tampa take a more statistical approach to the way they evaluate talent. Obviously Boston is then able to expand on that by purchasing large ticket free agents that Tampa can’t. I agree on the draft completely.
I agree with The Ancient Mariner.
The Yankees asked for permission to talk to Don Cooper this offseason and the White Sox wisely denied it.
I for one will be very curious to see what kind of success Williams would have with his reclamation project strategy for many of his pitching acquistions if Cooper wan’t around to mentor that in the future.
I think Cooper is one of the elite pitching coaches in MLB and a large part of the success the White Sox have had.
If the Sox didn’t have Cooper, they most likely wouldn’t use the reclamation project strategy.
Right, but that’s a massively profitable strategy. It’s a huge advantage that helps them stay competitive.
If they didn’t have it, wouldn’t that hurt them? It’s not like there’s another good strategy for getting good pitching cheap that the White Sox could suddenly be good at if they weren’t good at reclamation projects.
If there were such a thing, they would already be doing it to boost their teams right now.
That’s very possible.
But but while Cooper has given his input on the pitching they’ve acquired over the years, I’ve never heard his being the pitching coach as the majority of the reason for that strategy.
I think the organizational philosophy of “let’s get a guy with a pedigree who hasn’t worked out in with another team and turn him around” or “let’s get a guy with something to prove” (Jerry Reinsdorf’s words) has become much larger than just one guy. And we’ve seen it employed positionally as well.
But, again, it’s very possible and you may be right. We’ll see if we have the opportunity to find out one day.
I actually like the Sox’ recent drafts. 2008′s was especially impressive with Beckham, Daniel Hudson, Brent Morel already above average major leaguers with all-star upside (not Morel as much).
The notable 2009 draftees have been sidelined by injuries, but I love that they drafted on upside with Mitchell and Thompson. Maybe even Phegley.
The 2010 draft looks like a successful one. Sale, Petricka, Reed, even Blanke. Getting Sale to sign at slotted value was a steal.
Overall I think they’ve done well in recent years. Much better than the drafts of old. 2011 will be a challenge with no first rounder, but hopefully they can go above slot on someone.
I think for keeping Hawk Harrelson employed they should be docked about 4 spots.
Other than that I agree.
The jury’s still out on Peavy’s contribution but here’s what KW gave up:
Clayton Richard: 2010
Road stats : ERA 4.41—WHIP 1.61—BAA—.308
Aaron Poreda: 2010
AA: 26BB / 25IP—FIP 5.32
AAA: 38BB / 29 IP—FIP 6.03
Adam Russell – Traded to TB in the Jason Bartlett deal
TB reports Russell no longer has the mid 90′s fastball… spring training ERA near 8.00
Dexter Carter was released and reacquired by the White Sox.
The Sox took a flyer on a former Cy Young winner in Peavy and his big contract. If it doesn’t work out, so be it but I like aggressive approach especially when you only give up a Petco Park pitcher and 3 duds.
As far a bad trades vs. good trades, that’s happens to all teams but you can’t put a broad-brush analysis on it otherwise Texas GM Daniels would be out of a job for trading Adrian Gonzalez and John Danks for nothing. While KW gets burned (like the Swisher deals both coming and going), his “impact hits” involve the most important position – starting pitchers.
Acquiring SP’s like John Danks (for Brandon McCarthy) and Gavin Floyd (for Freddy Garcia) are more important than an above average corner OF and overvalued prospects. And KW did this previously when putting together his 2005 WS staff by acquiring Jose Contreras (for Estaban Louiza) and Freddy Garcia (for Jeremy Reed and Miguel Olivo). Maybe he has a knack for pitchers not hitters. In any event, any analysis has to be weighted and not just “a plus 1 minus 1″ exercise.
The Jenks statement is simply laughable for two reasons:
1- He is an overweight 30 year-old who missed all of September with a back problem. Last year he also had forearm problems (which some say is a precursor to elbow problems) plus his annual calf problems.
2-The Sox bullpen includes Thornton, Sale, Crain, and Santos. The Sox will not miss Jenks at all…unless he can pitch from the DL while eating.
Why is the Dunn signing a surprise? He’s a slugging high-strikeout high-OBP guy like ex-Sox DH Jim Thome. If the Sox (or any other team for that matter) don’t have a lot of these types maybe it’s because they can’t find or acquire them. Last year’s DH situation was a joke and to his credit KW corrected it.
“… and one of his better weapons, the international free-agent market…”
I have never ever heard or read this said about the Sox and the international free agent market…the success of one signing (A. Ramirez) notwithstanding. The Sox are always near the bottom in this type of spending (and results) especially after the Dave Wilder fiasco.
The Sox do have a supplemental pick in this year’s draft as a result of Arizona signing J.J. Putz.
Surprisingly, I agree with the overall rating… I just don’t know how the heck you got there.
I agree with your overall premise on KW. He has certainly made his fair share of solid trades (Danks, Floyd, Thornton) and some bad ones (most noteworthy being Swisher deals). So in that regard he’s no different than most GMs. I personally believe his good trades have outweighed the bad.
In regards to the Peavy deal, I don’t think they really gave up anything of substance. My biggest issue with it was the contract they were taking on. Prior to this season Reinsdorf had never shown a willingness to spend at this treshold. That was my greatest concern that having a huge contract like that would prohibit the team from making other moves. My hope is that the payroll can be sustained at the $120 million mark annually, then this won’t look SO bad.
pretty sure flash in the pan Shingo Takatsu was an interrnational signing that worked out very well for one year. Tadahito Iguchi was also a japanese import who played an integral role in the 05 WS Championship.
too much love here for Kenny
2 postseasons out of 10 years….in a very winnable division…..and usually with one of the top 2 payrolls in the division = not that impressive
The number of World Series titles in the last 10 years:
White Sox – 1
Yankees – 1
And the Yankees had at least twice the payroll the Sox had.
See, I can cherry-pick numbers and facts to support a position just like you.
Question: why is Circle Change 11 such a pompous prick?
because he goes up to 11.
Lots of reasons. But in this thread I …
[1] Complimented the author for being objective; something I did not expect given past comments of the CWS front office.
[2] Pointed out that KW helped turn around a rather sorry franchise. Seriously, both the CWS and BOS ended 2 of the 3 longest WS droughts in baseball history) … and the CWS are often “in the mix” for the division title, including 2011.
[3] Pointed out that BOS and TB are two different models of action.
… and I did so without calling anyone names.
I may be a prick and I may be pompous, but not due to anything I said in this thread (IMO). Is it, at all, possible that are interpreting comments in a demeanor/tone that is not there?