2011 Organizational Rankings #8: Toronto
After that last assignment, I’m glad I got something that won’t get readers too worked up. A general manager with one full season… what could possibly go wrong?
Present Talent – 79.55 (13th)
Future Talent – 85.00 (t-5th)
Financial Resources – 81.67 (t-9th or t-12th, depending on how you think)
Baseball Operations – 85.91 (5th)
Overall Rating – 82.59 (8th)
While I feel pretty good about the Blue Jays’ future, I was surprised that they ranked this high overall. If you think that these rankings should either mirror last season’s standings or what we think they will be in the coming season, this ranking will be particularly baffling. But that’s not what we’re trying to do.
The Blue Jays current group isn’t bad, being ranked in the top half of baseball, but (among other things) with Shaun Marcum now in Milwaukee, Jose Bautista likely to regress to “only” 35 home runs or so, and the toughest division in baseball not getting any easier in 2011, contention is unlikely on the heels of 2010′s surprising 85-win season. So why are we so high on Toronto over the next few years? Part of it is that there is some relatively good young talent on the current team. The farm system (“Future Talent”) is also good — while it is mired in the big “blob” in fifth place in the rankings, Marc’s team-specific write-up places the Jays’ minor league system at third overall. But there are other reasons why the Jays’ outlook for the next few seasons seems brighter than it has for some time.
Along with a good farm system and decent major league talent, Toronto’s financial situation is favorable. Toronto is tied in our rankings with teams such as Atlanta, Minnesota, the White Sox, and just below San Francisco and just ahead of Colorado and Seattle. All of these teams probably rank higher overall than they might have because of the ownership and financial problems that the Dodgers and Mets are experiencing (and who knows, those might clear up in the next year or so). There are reasons one might be skeptical of the financial ranking given to the Jays. After all, Toronto ranked only 27th in Forbes‘ franchise valuations, and attendance has been less than impressive.
Nonetheless, from the standpoint of how the Jays might spend in order to compete in the near future, there are some positive signs. It isn’t as if the Blue Jays have had a Marlins-level payroll in recent seasons. Even before the Vernon Wells off-loading, Toronto had a lot of money coming off the books this offseason. Since then, they’ve extended Jose Bautista to a long-term deal, but even so, starting in 2012 they have only about $30 million guaranteed (although that doesn’t include likely arbitration awards). In 2009 and 2010, the Jays’ payroll was around $80 million, and was close to $100 million as recently as 2008. Of more interest is the aggressive tone set in offseason interviews with club president Paul Beeston and general manager Alex Anthopoulos. While both admit that it is tough to compete with the big payrolls of divisional rivals like Boston and New York, neither use that as an excuse. Beeston goes so far as to say that he thinks the Toronto area can support a payroll of $140 million or more, and Anthopoulos goes out of his way to say that “Rogers Communications is probably the wealthiest owner in MLB” (he also uses the word “synergies,” which is awesome in a Jack Donaghy kind of way). One one hand, the positivity may just reflect an attempt to encourage the fan base. On the other hand, it isn’t the sort of thing one would imagine club executives would say if they weren’t under the impression they would have more money to spend in the near future — to do otherwise would be to invite a public relations fiasco. Toronto isn’t swimming in income, but with no debt obligations, a wealthy ownership, and a confident set of executives, the team looks like it is going to be willing to put out the money when the time is right in the next couple of seasons. They won’t have the same margin of error as the Yankees and Red Sox, but an increased willingness to spend on the part of ownership combined with a relative lack of guaranteed money after 2011 will give the Jays a chance to make some moves.
It is always possible that they won’t spend the money properly, and that is why it is so important to have a good baseball operations staff. We have the Blue Jays ranked fifth in baseball operations, right behind Atlanta and right ahead of Oakland. That seems fitting — while the Blue Jays have clearly embraced a lot of “new” thinking about baseball, they also emphasis traditional methods (Anthopoulos has a background in scouting). This is clearly an aggressive rating for a team that just hired the current general manager in the fall of 2009, and it is understandable why some might find this a bit too high. I was far from the only “voter” who was impressed by the Jays front office, and even I was a little surprised. While I can’t speak for the others, I can give you some of the reasoning behind my rating.
While the Vernon Wells trade was obviously a great boon for the team, that played a relatively small part for me. Don’t get me wrong — it was a factor in the financial portion of this rating. But I also think that given the situation, most front offices in the league would have done what the Blue Jays did [INSERT {Team X} JOKE HERE]. I have been more impressed by other things, of which I’ll only list of few. In terms of “big picture” issues, the team has finally started spending more over slot in the draft after years of pretty much following MLB’s guidelines. They have also expanded their Latin American operations and significantly increased the size of their scouting staff.
In terms of individual moves, not every deal has to be Wells-level ripoff for it to be impressive. Indeed, there are few obvious ripoffs in trades. But so far Anthopoulos has improved the team’s long-term situation. The deal that brought Yunel Escobar wasn’t necessarily a total steal for Toronto, but it did capitalize on a sudden apparent asset (Alex Gonzalez) in order to get a younger, better shortstop to at least bridge the gap until the farm produces something without giving up too much. The team also did a good job of gauging which of their potential free agents would reject arbitration, and has accumulated picks for the stacked 2011 draft. The clever post-season trade for Miguel Olivo was the pinnacle of that kind of cleverness (they offered Olivo arbitration, which he rejected, netting the Jays Type B draft compensation), and one of the reasons why old friend and Rays fan R.J. Anderson has taken to calling Anthopoulos “Andrew Friedman’s Evil Twin.”
One less glamorous move drew my attention as a good sign: the Shaun Marcum-Brett Lawrie trade. It was far from a ripoff. Shaun Marcum is a good pitcher still in his arbitration years, and Lawrie, while a good prospect, isn’t a sure thing. What impressed me, however, was that it shows that Anthopoulos has a good idea of where the team is at, and that while Marcum is good now, he isn’t young and won’t be under club control by the time the team is ready to compete. Lawrie might not work out, but he’s more likely to be a contributor (and possibly a significant one) on the next contender in Toronto than Marcum. That might seem obvious to some of us, but we’ve also seen teams get “pulled in” by an surprising 85-win season and make mistakes that set them back a few years. The Jays don’t seem to be doing that, and that kind of perspective is important for a team in their situation.
The overall rating doesn’t reflect what the Jays will do in 2011. Personally, I think their 2011 record will take a step back from 2010. But for the reasons given above, I do think the “long-short term” is bright for Jays. The Jays aren’t blowing away the field in any one area, but they are above average in all four. While their current major league talent is only middling, they do have some bright young talent graduating this season from a strong minor league system, which will be restocked with a number of picks in the draft. Ownership appears to be willing to expand payroll in the next few seasons. Yes, they are still in the toughest division in baseball. However, while I hesitate to say “if the Rays can do it anyone can,” if the payroll goes over $100 million Anthopoulos doesn’t have as good as Andrew Friedman, he just has to be in the same general ballpark. It will be fun to watch him try.
It’s a bit frustrating to see the Jays elite farm given the same amount of credit as a few below average ones, I think that presents a major flaw in these rankings.
I was also under the impression that financial resources were going to be left separate from baseball ops rankings. While Alex’s tenure has been short, he’s really separated himself from some of the more inept GM’s like Epstein who continuously squander valuable resources and cover up their mistakes with large, multi-year deals. I’m with Buck Showalter here, a clearly below average GM who spends alot doesn’t get credit for being some genius. I think fangraphs voters need to consider his words instead of drooling over 9 figure contracts.
All in all, I think 8 is about right, but mistakes were clearly made in evaluating the future talent and baseball ops.
Lol
I was agreeing with you until you said “inept GM’s like Epstein,” Boston has been too good a team for too long to be lead by an inept GM. Even with gobs of money, you still need to know what you are doing. Proof: see the Yankees before Steinbrenner got banned from running the team directly.
An Epsteing run team without money would still be a good team, and in any other division, a perennial contender to win a pennant.
I think the point could be made that BOS caught up to NYY before they caught up to them in spending. Since then, they’ve basically become “NY Lite” (or “NY Smart”, if you will).
But, at present, it’s hard to tell how much of BOS’s success is Baseball Operations Intelligence and how much is just “big spending”.
In other words, with their current roster and latest acquisitions (Lackey, Adrian, Crawford) they really behave similar to Philly. They’ve overpaid at times because … well, they can afford to. No single contract, not Lackey, not Crawford, not Ryan Howard, is going to seriously hamper either team from contending for their division for the next few years.
I think that there are different ways to run different clubs. You can accept different amounts and types of risk to run a team like the Red Sox maximally than you would to run a team with the resources of, say, the Blue Jays or Athletics. A big market team shouldn’t be run as if it were a small market team. That’s not to say it shouldn’t use some of the same principles, but to call a GM “inept” because he has the ability to sign Carl Crawford is lazy.
Since Epstein has been GM, he’s overseen a team that has averaged almost 94 wins per season in a tough division, won two World Series, invested in the draft, and constructed a team that won almost 90 games with an obscene set of injuries to almost all of its best players (i.e. relying on organizational depth). It could be that just anyone could have overseen this kind of success, but with the exception of the Yankees (who, despite the attempt to lump these teams together, maintain a significantly larger payroll), no on has in that stretch.
Also, a number of Epstein’s employees have gone on to take jobs as GMs of other teams and yet even without them, the Red Sox have maintained its success.
you were fine until “inept GM’s like Epstein”, which is far from the truth
So everyone basically agrees with me but wants to put Epstein on a pedestal for some unknown reason. I can live with that.
Or, everyone basically agree with you but knows that calling Epstein inept is laughable.
You mean unknown reason besides the myriad of reasons that were listed above? Alright then.
“I can live with that.” Hopefully you will live regardless.
I agree w/ you. The problem is, ABSOLUTELY nobody can say w/out a doubt one way or another. Theo Epstein is the homerun hitter who has never left Coors Field.
Hell, Brad Hawpe had a 127 wRC+ in 2009.
That analogy is too cool. Epstein is the home run hitter whose never left Coors, and AA is the rookie who just had one good year.
2 World Championships = “some unknown reason”
Grant – Don’t agree with everything you said, but nothing was as ridiculous as the Epstein remark.
Aaron – Epstein is probably the best GM in baseball, but WS championships had nothing to do with it. If Boston had lost both, would it have made him less smart? Winning or losing the WS doesn’t change the way neurons fire in your brain.
One positive thing for the Blue Jays financial situation and attendence is that Toronto has shown they will show up to support a winner. It is entirely possible when/if Toronto wins the AL East or wildcard that the fans start filling the stadium again.
There will be some folks who have an issue with the financial ranking, but there is a lot of potential there. This isn’t a Tampa Bay Rays situation.
Toronto is the 4th Largest Media Market in North America. Prior to the ’94 Strike, they were THE gold standard attendance-wise.
It helped that they were making the playoffs and World Series those years just prior. I imagine that the strike hurt almost everyone equally, but Toronto’s decline in attendance had more to do with not fielding as competitive a team.
Fortunately, team expenditure is not fixed. With the exception of the extremes, there’s generally a lot of room for mobility-owners will spend more on their team when revenues are high. Toronto strikes me as one of those markets that will really be able to support a winner. If they can get one team into the playoffs, the attendance boost from a pennant race and the playoff gates seems like it would create a nice payroll boost. Their only issue is that they have to get that first team into the playoffs with their present expenditure against some difficult competition.
The decline of the Canadian dollar through the 1990s also harmed the team’s finances quite a bit.
But the decline of the US dollar over the past few years has basuically solved that problem, thus allowing Toronto to be financially competitive again.
Ownership changes also hurt. Labatt was purchased by Interbrew S.A in 1995 and the new owners wanted little or nothing to do with owning a ball club. Since Roger’s gained 100% ownership of the team and the stadium, the organization has slowly but steadily improved.
And the “media market” for the Jays is all of Canada, since that’s their TV territory. There may be less interest in baseball in Canada than there is in the US, but whatever interest there is gets multiplied by 30 million people. How many other teams have a TV market that big? Folks in Calgary and Halifax may follow other teams, but if they want to watch baseball on TV they’re watching the Jays (with a few exceptions — the Fox Saturday games, obviously, and Rodgers Pacific shows a few Mariners games).
Llewdor – Excellent point about the forex impact. We’re talking a 30%+ swing over a decade.
Joser – Canada has been the Jays only since the Expos relocated. Prior to that, Montreal had a share and I think a portion of the Atlantic provinces was actuallty considered Red Sox TV territory.
It should also be remembered that in the early 90s the brand-new Skydome was one of the top revenue-generating buildings – we often underestimate the impact of the buliding on profitability I think.
They also had a new “cutting edge” stadium, that featured hotels, luxury boxes, Hard Rock cafe, etc. SkyDome was the “shiznit” for awhile … and well, being in consecutive WS didn’t hurt. *grin*
This was a really great write-up, Matt. As a Jays fan (which you may be able to tell by the name), I pretty much agreed with you on every point, though I’m slightly more optimistic about Yunel Escobar finding his way back to being a very good hitter, to go along with his great glove.
Great work! Hopefully the Jays can make another big climb next year.
I do not remember there exact ranking last year but I believe it was around 20-22 and I said I understand the ranking and rationale however the Jays will be one of the biggest “risers” from 2010 to 2011.
This is an accurate account of the Jays situation.
Improving farm system (slightly overhyped though), smart GM, ownership with extremely deep pockets.
Gold.
People forget Toronto is not a baseball market but there are still a ton of Jays fans waiting for the Jays to bring out a good team so that they can support them. Take Halladays last game for instance, if there were no true Jays fans the attendance would of been atrocious for that game, yet it was almost sold out.
When this team is ready to go for a run, all of us Jays fans will be ready to grab a ticket and watch, until then we will show our support through the TV.
Just curious how the Jays’ prospects were #3 in the prospect rankings and yet are somehow tied for 5th (with 10 other teams?) here.
See previous headings for “Prognostication: an exact science designed to tease and incite”. I think the linearity of the rankings bothers people. Probably should be presented in ven or cluster diagrams to show, vaguely, which teams have perceived strength in a given area of their organization.
Future talent is not restricted just to prospects. It includes current major league talent that is locked up for the future as well.
Hmm. OK.
The fact that 10 teams can tie for fifth when it is arguable that many of these teams have a stronger pipeline of cost-controlled talent seems…imprecise.
The problem is that only two people voted on it, and they were both prospect guys. That creates the clustering, as they seem to have had very different methodologies in ranking future talent.
Dave Cameron says:
March 21, 2011 at 3:52 pm
Future talent includes anyone under club control beyond 2011, regardless of their major league experience level.
Brent, you are correct in what Cameron promised, but he lied. The writers are basing their “Future Talent” component solely on FanGraph’s “Top 10 Prospects,” which is too narrow of a focus to mean much.
I like this ranking. AA really does seem to have vaulted himself into the highest class of GM in a short amount of time. Couple that with an above average check book, and a great farm club, and a decent roster right now, and any team built like that is going to have a bright future.
Here’s where it gets fuzzy. The Jays rank 8th when considering your 4 categories. I completely agree. However, step back and ask yourself: how much success are they really going to have in the next 3, 5, 10 years?
The answer is, probably not very much. And likely, by probably any measure of “Success”, not 8th in baseball. I’m not saying there should be a penalty for being in the AL east, I’m just pointing out where these rankings clash with reality. As we all know, there are three more AL east teams to uncover in these rankings, and all three deserve to be there. This division is a slugfest, and it’s not going to change anytime soon.
So, my only point is: It’s a great time to be a Jays fan, no question. You have a team that should be easy to root for. The only caveat is, don’t expect to enjoy the 8th most “success”, because you’re fighting three other pitbulls and an Os club that really isn’t too shabby.
Success =/= these rankings
Sadly, you’re pretty right. But they’ll have there chances – even if it’s less of them than teams ranked 20th on this list will.
Very true, and I think that’s a good way to put it. They will have their chances in years like last year – one of the big two (NYY/BOS) has a ton of injuries. And of course, years when the Jays just have everything go right. That’s not out the question either. Nothing in baseball is certain, but… the fact that NYY and BOS will trot out lineups filled with allstars every year is about as certain as it gets. And while TB will be more cyclical with their success, they will certainly have it, too.
The Rays are eventually going to make a few mistakes and their limited financical resources won’t be able to make up for it.
At that point, I think the Blue Jays are poised to vault over them and compete directly with the Sox and Yanks….at that point, I think anything can happen.
I understand your pessimism, but I wouldn’t be suprised if the next 5 years held at least a WC if not a division title.
True, as I just noted above TB’s success will certainly be more cyclical than the perennial juggernauts in BOS/NY. The Jays will absolutely get their chances to do some damage at some point – no doubt. They’ll just sadly see far fewer chances than they would in any other division in baseball.
Meanwhile… poor O’s!
The rankings should be division-independent. This isn’t “how likely they are to reach the postseason” it’s “how good is this organization compared to all the others across all of baseball.” Toronto would be the easy pick of divisional winner if they played in the AL West, and certainly in the conversation in the AL Central, so an 8th place overall sounds about right (though again — this is as much about the future as the present). It’s Toronto’s misfortune that they are in the AL East, but that doesn’t detract from their strength as an organization. Taking the division into account for these rankings would be nonsensical, and betrays a complete misunderstanding of what they’re about.
“Toronto would be the easy pick of divisional winner if they played in the AL West, and certainly in the conversation in the AL Central”
—–
This is nonsense. Toronto projects to finish last in the AL East and well below .500. They project to be ~15 games behind Texas. There is no way strength of schedule makes up for a gap that large.
Taking the division into account for these rankings would be nonsensical, and betrays a complete misunderstanding of what they’re about.”
You are betraying the English language.
Interestingly, by BP’s third-order wins, the Jays were already the 7th best team in baseball last year.
So in a sense, ranking them 8th here could actually be underrating them on the field.
Beyond the Boxscore had them at 4th. Though they were above the BoSox, and with their moves, I can’t see that being the case anymore
I totally agree with you, Telo. Cameron lied again. He said the rankings are to rate the team’s likelihood of being contenders in the next 3 years. With divisional placement not being included in the rankings, they do not come close to that goal.
Toronto, like Baltimore, is extremely overrated, as Toronto has little, and Baltimore has no, chance of contending.
#8org ?
Guys, stop ruining the punchline. Everyone can laugh at the real #6org. It was epic. There will never be another #6org. Let it go.
Never say never. Somebody will fall from their pedestal after being dubiously ranked for their shiny volatility and positive track record, only to underperform miserably. You just wait, Yankees!
At which point you should enjoy your schadenfreude through new jokes, not lame recycled old ones. Don’t be the guy telling that tired joke everybody’s heard and already moved past.
Right. Duck walks into a bar with 8 golden eggs. He walks up and pulls the bartender’s pantleg. Bartender says “Duck, what do you want?” Duck says, “I just stole these golden eggs from the giant and I wanted to to ask you if you could tell me if these eggs are real.” Bartender says “How am I supposed to do that?” Duck says “I don’t know. I hear gold tastes like gold, but as a duck, I can’t really suck an egg. Beak’s too stiff. Would you give it a try?” Bartender says “I don’t usually suck eggs, but if you let me have one, sure I’ll give it a try.” Duck says “All right. It’s worth it to see a Yankee suck eggs.”
[INSERT {Team X} JOKE HERE] …think you left something in there. =p
That’s what she said.
;)
We are doing exactly what Tampa bay did a few years ago, build from the Farm. Tampa WAS a great team for a few seasons and they still cannot get fans out to the games which is a shame. They are now on a downward path where hopefully for them they can hit on a few more draft picks and build back up in a few more years. The Jays are still a season or two from seriously competing for a title, and have told the fans when the time comes they will have the resources to sign the all-stars to keep them from leaving like all of the stars did in Tampa this off season. With the length of the big contracts that have been signed lately, teams like the Yankees and Sox will have down years when their stars do not age well.
“We are doing exactly what Tampa bay did a few years ago, build from the Farm.”
Wow! We have a bona fide member of the Blue Jays front office here! Is it AA himself?
Oh. You are actually just pretending like you have something to do with the team’s moves. Never mind.
-1 for douche-like comment.
It is perfectly fine for fans to use the “we” label when describing their team … provided they also use it when they say “We suck”, instead of “they suck”.
The overall seems about right, but I agree with much of the sentiment here: the baseball ops is a little aggressive given the limited track record (though I do like AA a lot) but the future talent is a clear problem.
I don’t have an issue with the fact that there’s a big cluster of teams ranked together, but the Jays are a team that seems like it should be in a separate tier ahead of many of the teams in that cluster.
Way to successfully justify a #8 ranking for a team in a tight spot. Great write-up. I think a lot of fans that haven’t seen a perennial contender recently would be very happy if their team had the future that the Jays have.
If I squint hard enough this ranking could be for the San Jose A’s in a couple of years.
What’s it called when a young impressive GM starts to worry about his (or her if you read Alex) job during an offseason, so that young and very impresive GM goes and makes a splash by buying an overpriced Free Agent to bring in the fans?
Anyway, we’ll see in two years what the Jays do,cause even with their farm system they don’t have the talent to close the gap with the Sox/Yanks cash. It is more likely the Jays will make a material significant mistake then vice versa…
Rogers Sportsnet recently conducted some interviews (Buck Martinez) sitting down with AA and John Farrell, having some really good discussions about pretty much everything, and I was extremely impressed with AA’s ability to make clear and concise points, while also remaining technical. His answers showed that he has an extremely good grasp on the big picture, both short term and long term, and that as long as he’s in control he’ll never quit, never let down the guard, and never stop caring or moving forward.
He’s a young guy, EXTREMELY smart, forward thinking, and despite getting his dream job (for his favorite team, no less) without any past experience or any real reason to have it at all except by being able to somehow convince his superiors he’d do a good job, he’s kept his feet on the ground.
It’s rare to see all these qualities combined into one person. I can’t possibly see AA not having a long, successful career ahead of him, and no matter who employs him throughout that time will likely benefit from having him around.
To put it simply, the Jays lucked out when they hired AA. It took him only a single year to change every perception that a Jays fan has had about this team, and that shows how much difference a good leader can make.
I was always under the impression he was a fan of ‘Les Expos?
Was is the key here. The impact of the Expos relocation on the long term financial strength of the Jays is easily underestimated – AA is just a curious case of what happened to many Expos fans.
Rogers Communications is a highly politicized company in the most political market in Canada (the CRTC-ruled media landscape). The Jays’ spending will sometimes have a lot to do with that and little to do with basic team economics (e.g. inflating the `cost of content` for Sportsnet could become useful in negotiating retransmission rights with other CAN broadcasters and in complying with Canadian content subsidy regulations).
AA and Beeston understand these things a lot better than this observer does (I have a need to follow Rogers rather closely). Beeston’s job is to exploit that to get the resources from Rogers. AA is executing a plan which is rooted in the belief that they will get this support.
In my view, the Vernon Wells’ trade was more important than Matthew suggests. Without it, ownership would have to be truly gutsy to spend all that cash in 2012-13 and “gutsy” is not one of the first words that comes to mind when describing Rogers. Now, the time frame for fairly cautious ownership to “invest” has shortened considerably.
I do think it is important to the financial situation, I noted above. I was simply saying that it didn’t factor (for me, at least) as highly in my take on Anthopoulos and the front office (i.e., baseball ops) as a bunch of other moves.
Thanks for reading.
Thankfully, Rogers and the Jays have shown faith in AA, and they’re not going to be panicking if he doesn’t win 90 games this year. That’s what happened with JP. He tried to fix the jays with bandaids instead of making major changes which were needed.
If he goes big this offseason and grabs a big-name free agent (Fielder or the ridiculously unlikely Pujols), it will be because he feels the Jays are on the cusp of contention, not because he wants to make a splash to save his job.
JP had an annoying habit of telling everyone publicly what was going on with everything, and preaching gospel.
He was a GM for far too long.
JP never sold the Jays fans on his plan. To outsiders, it looked like he had three different ones in succession: cheap but smart, import a star, and save my job.
JP never understood the culture of the Jays and how the fans had been educated on building a team on drafting and developing talent and only supplementing that talent when the time was right. His emphasis on drafting older but sign-able prospects never resonated with the fans and neither did importing a star player.
I’d push Toronto down to around #14. Mostly due to the monetary valuation of the organization and the fact that they haven’t been in the playoffs for a while. Yeah I know, tough division. But in the end that has to account for something.
The Jays get hit in the Forbes rankings pretty hard due to the fact they’re owned by the TV company, and thus get minimal in the way of TV money listed as income. Realistically, the Jays bring in huge TV revenue for Rogers as the primary programming on their sports channels during the summer, and Rogers are willing to make available some of this profit to protect the quality of their product.
Is a case of the cash being there, but not reflected in the books due to organisational structure.
Ok, thanks for the input!
And to put that in perspective, the Rangers latest 20 year TV deal is worth $150million per year, they currently reach around 150,000 homes a game. The Jays currently reach the 350,000 homes mark for midweek games, and clear 500,000 homes for weekend games, your looking at at least $200million per year value not reflected in the Forbes stats and arguably more.
There’s clearly some revenue hiding going on: when the cable company owns the team, hammering out a TV contract means they’re negotiating with themselves. They can push the numbers in whichever direction makes them the most profit, and it’s pretty clear that leaving the team with less apparent TV income (vs its relatively high expenses) works out overall in Rodgers favor, though it makes the Jays look weak relative to their competition. We saw this in the past with American media companies owning teams like the Braves and the Angels, but when tax changes made it undesirable the media companies decided to cut bait and sold the teams for a profit. Presumably the tax situation in Canada for Rodgers is more akin to the old way of doing things in the states.
Further to what joser said about negotiating with themselves, I recall about 5 or 6 years ago the Jays were ~2 million dollars short of qualifying for an additional ~5 million dollars of revenue sharing, so in the last month of the season they went bought 2 mil worth of ad time on their own radio stations.
My point isn’t to say that they’re involved in shady dealings – all of that was perfectly legal and was known about – but to point out that the nature of the ownership situation makes it impossible for anyone not directly involved to have even the slightest idea of the value of the franchise (to Rogers, or to a generic third party)
The Jays are just a tiny slice of the Rogers pie.
‘One of the top execs in the organization has off-handedly remarked that Blue Jay losses, within the Rogers empire, amount to “a rounding error.”‘
http://www.thestar.com/sports/baseball/mlb/bluejays/article/788635–perkins-jays-most-important-man-is-ceo-nadir-mohamed
Is that a Royals reference getting pulled in to a suprising season to kill a potential future?
Xeifrank, I don’t think a third party valuation should play a factor at all. Bottom line is the owner is rich, willing to spend, and waiting for the team to improve on the field so fans come out again, like in the 90s. At that point it will make sense to spend 130-140 m.
I think lost in the $ discussion of the Wells trade is that had he remained with the team, his big contract would have forced us to play him, despite the team moving in a younger direction. I’m a big fan of Vernon’s but like Marcum, he didn’t fit in the plans for 2012 and beyond and thus, forced to play him, he would be blocking Gose and others. AA showed real courage in dealing Marcum. There was no guarantee his shoulder would hold out – and so he dealt him at the height of his value. Reminded me of Sam Pollock trading older stars to the expansion teams in 1968 and piling up the draft picks which paid off in the ’70s.
Ranking a GM after one full season.
Isn’t this the website that trots ou th SSS article anually, seemingly mocking lesser-minded websites that over-react year-to-year.
Josh Byrnes, Jack Z … Caution, proceed with care.
This ^
Technically, AA has just completed his second off-season at the helm of the franchise and given the relatively short tenure of most GMs, how much of a sample size do you propose be used before weighting a GM’s performance?
In 18 months he has:
- had to deal the franchise’s greatest player
- through trades, drafts and international signings has constructed a top 3 farm system from one of the worst 1 season ago and done so without the MLB team becoming the Pirates or the Royals of the last 2 decades
- has acquired more picks in the top 100 of the 2011 draft than everyone but Boston and Tampa Bay I believe
- rid the franchise of one of the worst contracts in MLB
- created one of the largest domestic and international scouting operations in MLB
- expanded the minor league operations to include another short season team to further player development
If that doesn’t warrant a favourable review at this time I don’t know what would.
“how much of a sample size do you propose be used before weighting a GM’s performance?”
A lot more than 18 months. You need at least 4-5 years before you can begin to make an honest evaluation of his drafting/developing skills.
Bragging about his expanded scouting operations is pretty similar to last year’s bragging about Seattle’s expanded training facilities. It’s falling in love with a shiny process in lieu of seeing actual results.
I didn’t say anything about not giving him a favorable outlook. He’s earned that. Ranking him 5th? That’s too much (IMO) based on the limited data we have.
His big boost comes from getting rid of Wells’s contract. But, I don’t know that he has improved the TOR team that much in 18mo, has he?
Walt Jocketty (10th), for example, has helped turn around 3 different organizations now …
[1] Overhauled the A’s minor league system leading to 3 consecutive ROYs, and helping the A’s turn into championship teams.
[2] Cardinals – 7 div titles, 2 WS (1 Winner). Acquired Edmonds for Bottenfeld. Scott Rolen, acquired Wainwright for Drew, etc.
[3] Reds – Division title, key acquisitions (Rolen again).
Again, AA’s primary move and value so far has been to trade Wells to LAA … a move which doesn’t inherently make the Jays a better team.
I’m just saying, let’s lets him make some moves to evaluate before he’s catapulted up to top tier. Let’s at least learn from Jack Z and Josh Byrnes situations … 2 highly regarded neophyte GMs …. one had a miserable year last year, and the other who oversaw the complete collapse of a good team.
Let’s see if he can “build” the Blue Jays into something much improved, before we (to quote Dennis Green) “Crown him”.
Sam – if you equate doubling the size of your scouting staff with expanding the training facilities, you have very limited knowledge of how to run a baseball operation.
The Braves and Jays are the only 2 teams with 0 in the way of Debt. That certainly has to help their financial situation.
I do think there’s a rush to judgment here, in re: AA. I don’t think anyone doubts that he’s a very smart guy who seems to have a handle on things. But I also think that, in regards to MLB GMs, we should have a bias for performance. Lots of really smart guys didn’t work out as GMs, or still managed to make big mistakes to offset their GM acumen. I guess I just can’t accept ranking the Jays FO ahead of other organizations that have been turning acumen into on-field wins for a significant period of time. Not that we should PUNISH AA for still being new to the job, but neither should we move him to the head of the pack because we like the Olivo trade so much.
That’s the hard part of evaluating a GM so fresh into his tenure. While it may not be fair to put him this high in the rankings, he certainly doesn’t deserve to be in the bottom half, and he has made pretty solid moves so far. It’s not just the GM though, it is the entire front office and that spans a lot of different people in different positions.
AA has shown he is able to put the pieces in place to develop a contender but his true test is going to be adding those pieces to get the Jays over the hump when the time comes. Who knows how he’ll fare when it gets into ‘win now mode’ but so far he has shown he is quite capable.
Okay, but then we could also reward “front offices” that generally field very competitive, often dominant teams, which means teams like LAA and PHL would get high rankings, but they don’t because of a couple big contracts viewed as a blunder (Howard and Wells).
Those teams aren’t good for multiple years because of luck or randomness, are they? Does the LAA FO get credit for not overpaying to resign Lackey? Does PHL FO get credit for not overpaying to resign Werth?
At some point, AA is going to have to take some big risk to make up the 10-15 win difference between TOR and BOS/NYY and to a smaller degree TBR. That move is going to have to a risk. It’s likely going to have to be a big contract to a star-caliber player (or players). That’s going to take TOR close to the max of their budget or perhaps even over it. If those moves don;t result in playoff appearances, he’s going to be in the same boat as say, well, the Angels.
I can already see the latitude AA is getting in other articles, such as the Defensive Alignment one. I have never, at FG, heard anything positive said about EE at 3B … now, he’s neutral or slightly below. Having Bautista in RF is okay, even though he’d be more valuable (WAR metric) at 3B. Moves that would likely be mocked if another team are now “okay” or “neutral”. I just like consistency.
AA cannot get a ton of credit for what he “might do”. He “might” do lots of things.
Great insight!
the blue jays are fangraphs own personal maltese falcon.
That sounds like the coolest thing I have ever heard about the Jays. I am making myself a T-shirt (note to lawyers: if this is not fair use then I am actually kidding.)
The Jays grabbed every low risk reliever the Rays wanted this off season. It felt like when ever the Rays were rumored to want a player or ask about one, the Jays got him.
The ranking seems reasonable, but for me the key is the steep upward trajectory. The GM has made a slew of great moves in a short period of time. Not every move is going to work out, but AA just seems to get it. If Rogers gives him the financial support he needs, I have no doubt that he’ll be able to build a contender and a robust overall organization.
I think this is a bit ridiculous. They haven’t won in forever and don’t have a good team this year (no matter what division they play in). You can’t count on future talent because of the high rate of failure. I say this everytime. Unless you have 3 amazing pitching talents (like ATL) or a historically stacked system (like the Royals) you really can’t count on that mattering all that much. Too much happens.
Then again, I guess the logic is that BAL would win the NL Central, TB could win the AL West, Jays win the NL West, and NY could win the AL Central. In a perfect world, the division winners would be BAL, TB, TOR, NY, BOS, and PHI….right.
I come here because I’m sick of the AL East bias of the national media. If you’re a team that has moderate success in the AL East and a pretty good farm system then you’re considered awesome? The Yanks have no pitching and BOS is old as hell.
I can’t be the only one frustrated with this.
Stop whining
I heard this all the time with the Rays during the 2008 season – the naysayers saying that they weren’t that great, their record was a fluke, they’d never won anything, etc. It’s true that sometimes the results don’t match the hype, but some teams do make the transition from perennial also-ran to consistently competitive franchise. The Jays aren’t nearly there yet, but AA has done a good job of getting the rebuilding process started. Some of his key steps include:
- Trading for young, high ceiling talent, one of whom has already had great success at the MLB level (Brandon Morrow, Yunel Escobar, Brett Lawrie, Anthony Gose)
- Trading Doc (who was on his way out of town no matter what) for Drabek, d’Arnaud, and Taylor (now Gose)
- Trading Wells’s “unmoveable” contract
- Adding cheap-but-useful veterans (Downs, Buck, Olivo, Gregg, etc), who in turn produced surplus draft picks for the club
- Adding promising Latin American talent (Cardona, Hechavarria, and others)
- Spending more on the draft (allowing them to add higher-priced prospects, such as Thon, in later rounds)
- Beefing up the scouting staff
- Hiring a well-regarded managerial prospect (John Farrell)
I don’t think anyone is saying the Jays are awesome becasue they’re a mediocre team in the AL East. I think people are saying they’re a mediocre team with a bright future, shich would make a #8 ranking seem about right. If they were awesome, they’d be top 3. Also, while true the Jays haven’t even sniffed the postseason since ’93 the’ve also complied a decent won-loss record since then, while playing more than their share of games against the elite teams. I think it would be wrong to call them a bad team. They were a mid-tier team last season and have been in that range for most of the last 10 years. A look at the talent on the club this year would put them in the same grouping for 2011. But this organization has way more upside than most. They’ve got some young talent with upside on the 25 man roster, they’ve restocked their farm system, they had 10 high draft picks last year and have 7 this year. While AA is a young GM, he has been in the Jays front office for several years and has surrounded himself with a lot of very experienced baseball people, the ownership seems to understand the importance of not meddling in baseball operations and there is huge (make that HUGE), untapped revenue potential in Toronto. It could all amount to nothing, but at this point the potential is big. I will agree on one point – that all the fuss about them playing in the AL East is sometimes overstated.
I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that the Jays have comparable (or better) on field talent as the Rays, a comparable farm system, a comparable front office, and boatloads more money.
The Rays get the advantage due to their greater run of recent success, but I wouldn’t be surprised in the least if the Jays come out of this season with a rosier outlook than the rays.
With benefit of hindsight, of course, but only 4 more HR to go for Bautista! Think he can do it? ;)