2011 wOBA: By Batting Order
The following data is current through 5-30-2011.
If you, dear reader, are like me, then you agonize unnecessarily over every lineup on every team in every game. Aaron Rowand leading off?! Yargh! No! Carlos Gomez batting second for the Brewers?! WRONG. Aaron Miles batting anything?! Unforgivable.
Holding egos constant, inefficiency is the greatest enemy of success. With regards to lineups, however, teams can really only lose a handful of runs over the course of full season, but a handful of runs, in real terms, can mean the difference between the division or a boring October. So it’s a dicey proposition. A mismanaged lineup on the Royals team does not mean a whole lot because they will lose the division by several trillion runs. A few lost runs for the Rays, Yankees, or Red Sox, though, can mean the season.
The Book by Tango, MGL, and Dolphin pretty effectively uncovers the ultimate lineup. Sky Kalkman on Beyond the Boxscore did a dandy job of Cliffnoting the chapter here, but honestly, if you have not read The Book, then what are you doing here, reading my stuff?! Go purchase said tome and grow in wisdom!
Anyway, The Book, using Markov Chains and Rasputin Ropes and all other manners of mystical devices, determined the following, summarized by Kalkman:
…Here’s how the lineup spots rank in the importance of avoiding outs:
#1, #4, #2, #5, #3, #6, #7, #8, #9
So, you want your best three hitters to hit in the #1, #4, and #2 spots. Distribute them so OBP is higher in the order and SLG is lower. Then place your fourth and fifth best hitters, with the #5 spot usually seeing the better hitter, unless he’s a high-homerun guy. Then place your four remaining hitters in decreasing order of overall hitting ability, with basestealers ahead of singles hitters. Finally, stop talking like the lineup is a make-or-break decision.
Conventional, ol’ timey wisdom dictates you slot weaker hitters into the #1 and #2 slots, and we can definitely see that manifest thus far in 2011:
Average wOBA per Slot
It is important to remember these numbers tell the season’s story; they do not prophesy its end. If we wanted to anticipate future performances, we would probably find the player’s career averages more informative. On the aggregate level like this, though, we can see a glimmer of the team’s priorities, as well as a number of notable early hot streaks.
Let’s delve into the specifics now.
The NL:
I am actually a rather big fan of batting the pitcher 8th and do so whenever I get the chance (which would be, through yesterday, never). However, when we consider how the #7, #8, and #9 slots have decreasing importance, it is somewhat impressive to see NL managers rather effectively utilizing this descent. Some managers seem compelled to bat the catcher 9th no matter who he his, but maybe we are seeing an end to that frustrating and backward era?
Also of note: The Washington Nationals basically have had turkey sandwiches batting 1st and 2nd. The combo of Rick Ankiel, Ian Desmond, and Roger Bernandina have combined for an epically bad start to every Nationals game.
We also can see how Kosuke Fukudome and Starlin Castro have combined the league’s best leadoff slot, but a large portion of that success is due to Fukudome’s hot, high-BABIP start. And down in Frisco, the Giants pitchers have flexed some uncommon muscle. [Nevermind. I was looking at the Angels, who snuck into both charts.] Jonathan Sanchez and Madison Bumgarner have combined for an impressive 5 doubles.
The AL:
Perhaps due to random fluctuations and uncommon cold stretches, AL hitters in the 7th slot are hitting worse (.294) than the average AL 9th slot (.300). The Twins, Mariners, and Orioles have certainly added to this unusual disparity, but the combo of Mike Napoli and Mitch Moreland have certainly added a lot of oomph to the #7 group, so we definitely cannot blame Texas.
The Twins seem to be putting anti-optimization to the test. Their combo of #2 hitters has compiled an impressively terrible sub-.250 wOBA while their #6 hitters have nearly averaged .350 wOBA. It’s not that I think Jim Thome should be leading off, it’s just that I think there’s a better way to arrange this.
Meanwhile, it would be funny if it was not tragic: The Orioles best hitting has come from the 9th slot.
For you extra nerdy fans, I’ve also included the meat of my dataset, plus steals and such:
| Arizona Diamondbacks |
||||||
| Order | PA | HR | SB | CS | BABIP | wOBA |
| 1st | 257 | 9 | 13 | 6 | .285 | .344 |
| 2nd | 247 | 7 | 12 | 2 | .266 | .301 |
| 3rd | 238 | 10 | 9 | 4 | .299 | .370 |
| 4th | 231 | 5 | 3 | 3 | .336 | .343 |
| 5th | 228 | 9 | 4 | 1 | .261 | .316 |
| 6th | 224 | 6 | 1 | 2 | .299 | .333 |
| 7th | 219 | 5 | 4 | 0 | .304 | .353 |
| 8th | 217 | 8 | 3 | 1 | .327 | .337 |
| 9th | 212 | 3 | 0 | 0 | .246 | .205 |
| Atlanta Braves | ||||||
| Order | PA | HR | SB | CS | BABIP | wOBA |
| 1st | 258 | 6 | 1 | 6 | .289 | .334 |
| 2nd | 246 | 6 | 2 | 3 | .279 | .301 |
| 3rd | 245 | 4 | 0 | 1 | .277 | .301 |
| 4th | 239 | 7 | 1 | 0 | .358 | .367 |
| 5th | 233 | 7 | 1 | 3 | .205 | .260 |
| 6th | 228 | 9 | 1 | 1 | .299 | .348 |
| 7th | 223 | 6 | 3 | 0 | .258 | .270 |
| 8th | 217 | 6 | 0 | 0 | .318 | .354 |
| 9th | 212 | 3 | 1 | 1 | .231 | .188 |
| Baltimore Orioles | ||||||
| Order | PA | HR | SB | CS | BABIP | wOBA |
| 1st | 244 | 3 | 7 | 2 | .261 | .277 |
| 2nd | 239 | 5 | 4 | 0 | .257 | .290 |
| 3rd | 237 | 4 | 2 | 0 | .293 | .280 |
| 4th | 230 | 5 | 0 | 0 | .317 | .329 |
| 5th | 223 | 5 | 0 | 1 | .272 | .290 |
| 6th | 218 | 6 | 5 | 1 | .314 | .339 |
| 7th | 212 | 5 | 0 | 0 | .238 | .271 |
| 8th | 202 | 9 | 3 | 0 | .252 | .343 |
| 9th | 199 | 5 | 1 | 0 | .352 | .351 |
| Boston Red Sox | ||||||
| Order | PA | HR | SB | CS | BABIP | wOBA |
| 1st | 254 | 5 | 17 | 6 | .328 | .354 |
| 2nd | 254 | 4 | 14 | 2 | .276 | .310 |
| 3rd | 247 | 9 | 0 | 0 | .348 | .377 |
| 4th | 238 | 11 | 1 | 0 | .306 | .401 |
| 5th | 234 | 7 | 2 | 1 | .322 | .406 |
| 6th | 229 | 7 | 0 | 1 | .286 | .329 |
| 7th | 225 | 6 | 2 | 2 | .274 | .298 |
| 8th | 216 | 4 | 4 | 0 | .291 | .292 |
| 9th | 210 | 6 | 2 | 2 | .261 | .312 |
| Chicago Cubs | ||||||
| Order | PA | HR | SB | CS | BABIP | wOBA |
| 1st | 241 | 3 | 5 | 1 | .402 | .410 |
| 2nd | 236 | 1 | 3 | 1 | .319 | .318 |
| 3rd | 232 | 1 | 2 | 1 | .332 | .330 |
| 4th | 226 | 3 | 0 | 1 | .305 | .326 |
| 5th | 219 | 5 | 0 | 2 | .338 | .359 |
| 6th | 215 | 11 | 0 | 0 | .355 | .403 |
| 7th | 207 | 8 | 5 | 0 | .302 | .324 |
| 8th | 201 | 4 | 0 | 2 | .286 | .300 |
| 9th | 196 | 2 | 0 | 0 | .242 | .195 |
| Chicago White Sox | ||||||
| Order | PA | HR | SB | CS | BABIP | wOBA |
| 1st | 261 | 0 | 9 | 8 | .298 | .305 |
| 2nd | 256 | 5 | 2 | 2 | .301 | .330 |
| 3rd | 251 | 10 | 2 | 4 | .268 | .341 |
| 4th | 246 | 11 | 1 | 1 | .302 | .363 |
| 5th | 242 | 7 | 0 | 0 | .228 | .289 |
| 6th | 233 | 4 | 4 | 0 | .241 | .285 |
| 7th | 222 | 6 | 3 | 3 | .250 | .284 |
| 8th | 216 | 8 | 0 | 3 | .289 | .342 |
| 9th | 209 | 3 | 4 | 4 | .297 | .295 |
| Cincinnati Reds | ||||||
| Order | PA | HR | SB | CS | BABIP | wOBA |
| 1st | 269 | 8 | 17 | 2 | .331 | .327 |
| 2nd | 262 | 6 | 7 | 0 | .243 | .300 |
| 3rd | 251 | 6 | 4 | 3 | .369 | .421 |
| 4th | 247 | 6 | 1 | 2 | .277 | .334 |
| 5th | 242 | 15 | 4 | 1 | .281 | .369 |
| 6th | 239 | 5 | 4 | 1 | .331 | .335 |
| 7th | 231 | 6 | 1 | 3 | .312 | .329 |
| 8th | 225 | 3 | 3 | 1 | .270 | .292 |
| 9th | 218 | 5 | 1 | 0 | .272 | .253 |
| Cleveland Indians | ||||||
| Order | PA | HR | SB | CS | BABIP | wOBA |
| 1st | 239 | 9 | 4 | 2 | .310 | .345 |
| 2nd | 234 | 10 | 7 | 0 | .306 | .371 |
| 3rd | 222 | 5 | 7 | 3 | .321 | .318 |
| 4th | 217 | 7 | 1 | 1 | .239 | .317 |
| 5th | 211 | 8 | 1 | 1 | .350 | .343 |
| 6th | 209 | 3 | 2 | 2 | .259 | .262 |
| 7th | 204 | 1 | 3 | 2 | .306 | .309 |
| 8th | 200 | 6 | 2 | 1 | .283 | .326 |
| 9th | 194 | 3 | 2 | 0 | .301 | .304 |
| Colorado Rockies | ||||||
| Order | PA | HR | SB | CS | BABIP | wOBA |
| 1st | 251 | 0 | 4 | 6 | .325 | .302 |
| 2nd | 247 | 2 | 5 | 2 | .351 | .339 |
| 3rd | 244 | 9 | 6 | 1 | .273 | .329 |
| 4th | 233 | 12 | 3 | 1 | .219 | .352 |
| 5th | 227 | 11 | 2 | 2 | .292 | .386 |
| 6th | 221 | 7 | 2 | 0 | .311 | .326 |
| 7th | 214 | 5 | 6 | 1 | .305 | .344 |
| 8th | 208 | 6 | 1 | 1 | .270 | .341 |
| 9th | 204 | 2 | 0 | 1 | .214 | .166 |
| Detroit Tigers | ||||||
| Order | PA | HR | SB | CS | BABIP | wOBA |
| 1st | 245 | 3 | 7 | 2 | .288 | .270 |
| 2nd | 236 | 3 | 2 | 0 | .313 | .313 |
| 3rd | 231 | 4 | 0 | 1 | .234 | .264 |
| 4th | 228 | 11 | 0 | 1 | .324 | .407 |
| 5th | 225 | 5 | 2 | 1 | .294 | .323 |
| 6th | 220 | 9 | 4 | 0 | .310 | .365 |
| 7th | 216 | 2 | 0 | 2 | .280 | .281 |
| 8th | 207 | 9 | 2 | 0 | .296 | .332 |
| 9th | 199 | 2 | 2 | 1 | .290 | .276 |
| Florida Marlins | ||||||
| Order | PA | HR | SB | CS | BABIP | wOBA |
| 1st | 245 | 4 | 6 | 4 | .291 | .296 |
| 2nd | 239 | 2 | 5 | 4 | .242 | .282 |
| 3rd | 233 | 3 | 8 | 5 | .297 | .307 |
| 4th | 229 | 7 | 1 | 0 | .338 | .379 |
| 5th | 223 | 8 | 0 | 1 | .320 | .356 |
| 6th | 214 | 13 | 1 | 0 | .320 | .411 |
| 7th | 211 | 4 | 0 | 2 | .300 | .304 |
| 8th | 204 | 3 | 1 | 1 | .297 | .291 |
| 9th | 196 | 0 | 2 | 0 | .257 | .197 |
| Houston Astros | ||||||
| Order | PA | HR | SB | CS | BABIP | wOBA |
| 1st | 252 | 1 | 21 | 2 | .346 | .321 |
| 2nd | 242 | 2 | 8 | 1 | .296 | .301 |
| 3rd | 239 | 7 | 3 | 0 | .376 | .376 |
| 4th | 233 | 5 | 4 | 0 | .260 | .308 |
| 5th | 226 | 4 | 2 | 1 | .372 | .338 |
| 6th | 223 | 2 | 0 | 2 | .268 | .242 |
| 7th | 217 | 5 | 2 | 0 | .308 | .321 |
| 8th | 211 | 4 | 1 | 1 | .304 | .319 |
| 9th | 202 | 3 | 2 | 0 | .299 | .256 |
| Kansas City Royals | ||||||
| Order | PA | HR | SB | CS | BABIP | wOBA |
| 1st | 256 | 7 | 13 | 1 | .228 | .315 |
| 2nd | 252 | 8 | 6 | 2 | .295 | .346 |
| 3rd | 246 | 7 | 4 | 1 | .333 | .364 |
| 4th | 238 | 5 | 5 | 1 | .297 | .324 |
| 5th | 233 | 7 | 3 | 0 | .290 | .343 |
| 6th | 228 | 3 | 4 | 2 | .341 | .328 |
| 7th | 220 | 5 | 7 | 0 | .299 | .307 |
| 8th | 214 | 2 | 2 | 1 | .248 | .315 |
| 9th | 208 | 1 | 7 | 5 | .304 | .289 |
| Los Angeles Angels | ||||||
| Order | PA | HR | SB | CS | BABIP | wOBA |
| 1st | 267 | 3 | 13 | 4 | .316 | .327 |
| 2nd | 261 | 8 | 7 | 2 | .335 | .359 |
| 3rd | 254 | 3 | 7 | 3 | .317 | .346 |
| 4th | 249 | 9 | 2 | 2 | .260 | .319 |
| 5th | 241 | 2 | 2 | 2 | .282 | .291 |
| 6th | 234 | 6 | 4 | 1 | .311 | .322 |
| 7th | 229 | 9 | 3 | 1 | .296 | .317 |
| 8th | 225 | 4 | 1 | 3 | .293 | .298 |
| 9th | 218 | 3 | 5 | 1 | .299 | .275 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | ||||||
| Order | PA | HR | SB | CS | BABIP | wOBA |
| 1st | 251 | 1 | 9 | 2 | .262 | .267 |
| 2nd | 245 | 2 | 4 | 1 | .358 | .334 |
| 3rd | 236 | 5 | 2 | 1 | .372 | .358 |
| 4th | 235 | 12 | 14 | 3 | .354 | .390 |
| 5th | 231 | 5 | 2 | 0 | .274 | .282 |
| 6th | 226 | 4 | 1 | 2 | .268 | .265 |
| 7th | 220 | 6 | 0 | 0 | .245 | .282 |
| 8th | 216 | 2 | 1 | 1 | .329 | .289 |
| 9th | 206 | 3 | 0 | 1 | .165 | .193 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | ||||||
| Order | PA | HR | SB | CS | BABIP | wOBA |
| 1st | 252 | 9 | 6 | 2 | .346 | .368 |
| 2nd | 243 | 7 | 9 | 3 | .275 | .295 |
| 3rd | 236 | 12 | 13 | 1 | .336 | .424 |
| 4th | 232 | 11 | 0 | 0 | .290 | .390 |
| 5th | 229 | 3 | 0 | 1 | .274 | .298 |
| 6th | 221 | 2 | 2 | 1 | .280 | .269 |
| 7th | 217 | 5 | 4 | 1 | .226 | .246 |
| 8th | 210 | 5 | 3 | 0 | .340 | .345 |
| 9th | 204 | 4 | 2 | 0 | .256 | .222 |
| Minnesota Twins | ||||||
| Order | PA | HR | SB | CS | BABIP | wOBA |
| 1st | 239 | 2 | 4 | 1 | .326 | .353 |
| 2nd | 232 | 3 | 4 | 0 | .213 | .244 |
| 3rd | 228 | 4 | 2 | 0 | .304 | .303 |
| 4th | 219 | 5 | 0 | 0 | .303 | .318 |
| 5th | 217 | 4 | 4 | 1 | .275 | .308 |
| 6th | 213 | 7 | 2 | 1 | .297 | .346 |
| 7th | 210 | 3 | 2 | 0 | .252 | .257 |
| 8th | 201 | 1 | 1 | 1 | .210 | .214 |
| 9th | 193 | 1 | 4 | 1 | .268 | .269 |
| New York Mets | ||||||
| Order | PA | HR | SB | CS | BABIP | wOBA |
| 1st | 253 | 1 | 19 | 4 | .354 | .363 |
| 2nd | 244 | 3 | 7 | 2 | .272 | .297 |
| 3rd | 234 | 9 | 9 | 0 | .292 | .354 |
| 4th | 228 | 6 | 3 | 1 | .320 | .348 |
| 5th | 225 | 4 | 2 | 0 | .312 | .325 |
| 6th | 221 | 6 | 3 | 3 | .285 | .339 |
| 7th | 216 | 3 | 1 | 2 | .364 | .354 |
| 8th | 212 | 4 | 4 | 1 | .288 | .283 |
| 9th | 207 | 1 | 1 | 1 | .209 | .172 |
| New York Yankees | ||||||
| Order | PA | HR | SB | CS | BABIP | wOBA |
| 1st | 250 | 2 | 6 | 2 | .289 | .298 |
| 2nd | 241 | 14 | 7 | 3 | .273 | .377 |
| 3rd | 237 | 16 | 0 | 1 | .257 | .395 |
| 4th | 230 | 10 | 3 | 1 | .289 | .350 |
| 5th | 225 | 9 | 5 | 1 | .285 | .347 |
| 6th | 219 | 4 | 2 | 3 | .241 | .278 |
| 7th | 211 | 8 | 1 | 1 | .195 | .296 |
| 8th | 206 | 10 | 8 | 1 | .350 | .435 |
| 9th | 199 | 7 | 10 | 3 | .260 | .326 |
| Oakland Athletics | ||||||
| Order | PA | HR | SB | CS | BABIP | wOBA |
| 1st | 259 | 2 | 15 | 6 | .258 | .292 |
| 2nd | 249 | 3 | 2 | 1 | .259 | .301 |
| 3rd | 246 | 2 | 2 | 1 | .290 | .293 |
| 4th | 238 | 9 | 3 | 0 | .304 | .334 |
| 5th | 233 | 3 | 3 | 1 | .263 | .291 |
| 6th | 228 | 4 | 3 | 0 | .250 | .307 |
| 7th | 226 | 2 | 4 | 1 | .256 | .271 |
| 8th | 219 | 3 | 1 | 0 | .319 | .317 |
| 9th | 215 | 3 | 5 | 5 | .288 | .306 |
| Philadelphia Phillies |
||||||
| Order | PA | HR | SB | CS | BABIP | wOBA |
| 1st | 255 | 6 | 12 | 1 | .290 | .327 |
| 2nd | 249 | 5 | 7 | 1 | .317 | .359 |
| 3rd | 244 | 3 | 6 | 1 | .255 | .294 |
| 4th | 239 | 13 | 0 | 0 | .298 | .348 |
| 5th | 234 | 4 | 6 | 3 | .257 | .289 |
| 6th | 225 | 9 | 2 | 1 | .285 | .355 |
| 7th | 216 | 3 | 1 | 0 | .276 | .287 |
| 8th | 208 | 1 | 2 | 0 | .277 | .251 |
| 9th | 206 | 1 | 2 | 1 | .328 | .234 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | ||||||
| Order | PA | HR | SB | CS | BABIP | wOBA |
| 1st | 237 | 8 | 15 | 5 | .296 | .361 |
| 2nd | 228 | 4 | 9 | 2 | .320 | .323 |
| 3rd | 223 | 5 | 3 | 2 | .256 | .306 |
| 4th | 223 | 5 | 2 | 0 | .277 | .317 |
| 5th | 220 | 4 | 2 | 1 | .236 | .254 |
| 6th | 214 | 11 | 1 | 2 | .329 | .393 |
| 7th | 203 | 2 | 1 | 2 | .315 | .293 |
| 8th | 199 | 2 | 1 | 2 | .290 | .276 |
| 9th | 192 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .215 | .140 |
| San Diego Padres | ||||||
| Order | PA | HR | SB | CS | BABIP | wOBA |
| 1st | 249 | 2 | 12 | 7 | .295 | .288 |
| 2nd | 245 | 2 | 14 | 1 | .301 | .296 |
| 3rd | 239 | 0 | 6 | 1 | .260 | .253 |
| 4th | 237 | 5 | 1 | 0 | .248 | .267 |
| 5th | 228 | 9 | 3 | 1 | .305 | .329 |
| 6th | 219 | 8 | 7 | 0 | .364 | .373 |
| 7th | 215 | 2 | 6 | 1 | .240 | .242 |
| 8th | 208 | 2 | 1 | 1 | .286 | .284 |
| 9th | 201 | 3 | 3 | 2 | .217 | .193 |
| San Francisco Giants | ||||||
| Order | PA | HR | SB | CS | BABIP | wOBA |
| 1st | 241 | 2 | 7 | 2 | .350 | .326 |
| 2nd | 236 | 2 | 2 | 2 | .321 | .308 |
| 3rd | 233 | 4 | 4 | 2 | .260 | .279 |
| 4th | 227 | 4 | 6 | 1 | .270 | .282 |
| 5th | 219 | 10 | 2 | 2 | .307 | .378 |
| 6th | 216 | 7 | 5 | 1 | .252 | .312 |
| 7th | 210 | 3 | 2 | 4 | .248 | .267 |
| 8th | 208 | 3 | 4 | 0 | .285 | .299 |
| 9th | 199 | 2 | 1 | 1 | .261 | .202 |
| Seattle Mariners | ||||||
| Order | PA | HR | SB | CS | BABIP | wOBA |
| 1st | 241 | 0 | 13 | 4 | .293 | .301 |
| 2nd | 237 | 1 | 8 | 5 | .215 | .249 |
| 3rd | 232 | 6 | 5 | 0 | .264 | .312 |
| 4th | 229 | 3 | 2 | 0 | .291 | .288 |
| 5th | 223 | 7 | 1 | 2 | .306 | .341 |
| 6th | 220 | 5 | 3 | 3 | .309 | .327 |
| 7th | 213 | 3 | 3 | 5 | .296 | .266 |
| 8th | 206 | 1 | 4 | 1 | .223 | .232 |
| 9th | 197 | 2 | 3 | 1 | .319 | .309 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | ||||||
| Order | PA | HR | SB | CS | BABIP | wOBA |
| 1st | 262 | 0 | 7 | 1 | .319 | .305 |
| 2nd | 255 | 5 | 4 | 2 | .406 | .397 |
| 3rd | 249 | 9 | 4 | 0 | .268 | .351 |
| 4th | 246 | 7 | 1 | 3 | .387 | .398 |
| 5th | 240 | 12 | 3 | 1 | .331 | .413 |
| 6th | 235 | 7 | 4 | 3 | .311 | .342 |
| 7th | 234 | 3 | 1 | 2 | .358 | .368 |
| 8th | 222 | 1 | 4 | 1 | .280 | .282 |
| 9th | 212 | 1 | 1 | 0 | .202 | .188 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | ||||||
| Order | PA | HR | SB | CS | BABIP | wOBA |
| 1st | 247 | 4 | 12 | 8 | .257 | .292 |
| 2nd | 239 | 5 | 4 | 2 | .286 | .309 |
| 3rd | 230 | 6 | 6 | 0 | .344 | .358 |
| 4th | 226 | 7 | 5 | 1 | .241 | .302 |
| 5th | 221 | 13 | 4 | 1 | .338 | .400 |
| 6th | 215 | 5 | 8 | 4 | .318 | .325 |
| 7th | 208 | 1 | 3 | 0 | .264 | .281 |
| 8th | 198 | 8 | 1 | 3 | .278 | .312 |
| 9th | 195 | 3 | 4 | 0 | .248 | .265 |
| Texas Rangers | ||||||
| Order | PA | HR | SB | CS | BABIP | wOBA |
| 1st | 250 | 7 | 14 | 2 | .267 | .361 |
| 2nd | 247 | 2 | 13 | 2 | .304 | .307 |
| 3rd | 238 | 3 | 6 | 0 | .362 | .355 |
| 4th | 233 | 9 | 1 | 2 | .270 | .364 |
| 5th | 229 | 6 | 1 | 1 | .265 | .292 |
| 6th | 221 | 13 | 2 | 4 | .226 | .342 |
| 7th | 215 | 11 | 3 | 1 | .295 | .377 |
| 8th | 210 | 9 | 1 | 0 | .262 | .338 |
| 9th | 203 | 4 | 9 | 2 | .272 | .317 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | ||||||
| Order | PA | HR | SB | CS | BABIP | wOBA |
| 1st | 257 | 5 | 7 | 4 | .286 | .319 |
| 2nd | 251 | 6 | 8 | 4 | .335 | .333 |
| 3rd | 245 | 20 | 5 | 2 | .315 | .487 |
| 4th | 242 | 7 | 6 | 1 | .294 | .315 |
| 5th | 233 | 4 | 6 | 1 | .314 | .337 |
| 6th | 231 | 6 | 3 | 0 | .199 | .252 |
| 7th | 220 | 3 | 5 | 3 | .289 | .308 |
| 8th | 213 | 3 | 6 | 2 | .325 | .329 |
| 9th | 211 | 5 | 5 | 4 | .280 | .309 |
| Washington Nationals | ||||||
| Order | PA | HR | SB | CS | BABIP | wOBA |
| 1st | 244 | 4 | 13 | 0 | .233 | .257 |
| 2nd | 238 | 2 | 9 | 1 | .254 | .257 |
| 3rd | 232 | 7 | 6 | 2 | .326 | .364 |
| 4th | 225 | 8 | 3 | 0 | .248 | .321 |
| 5th | 218 | 7 | 2 | 4 | .255 | .298 |
| 6th | 211 | 10 | 4 | 3 | .338 | .345 |
| 7th | 207 | 5 | 5 | 3 | .309 | .337 |
| 8th | 202 | 4 | 1 | 1 | .257 | .274 |
| 9th | 193 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .254 | .201 |
“the Bautista.” You’re the best, Bradley.
:)
Thanks.
Uh, this rules.
Thanks Jack. It literally took me hours upon hours to get the data to this point.
By wOBA, the second-most productive lineup spot in all of MLB (behind some guy who bats 3rd for Toronto) is the 8th slot for the Yankees, which has been manned by 9 different players this year and no one for more than 19 games. Wild.
Yeah, crazy, right? I think it also serves to illustrate how much of a crazy good season Russell Martin is having right now.
I quite enjoyed this article. Especially the charts… but ESPECIALLY the tone. Perfect read for my mid afternoon lull. And very informative. Thank you
Hey, Dave, I love to fill lulls. With lolz. HAHAHAHA… Okay, I’m going back to my box now.
Rasputin Ropes
lol.
:)
Cool article. Does lineup spot have any correlation with BABIP? (I’m gonna guess no..)
I was hoping to see something about the Tigers lineup here. It literally hurts to read the boxscore (I imagine more so if you give a crap about the Tigers) and see the lack of talent they put in the 1-3 spots then go with Miggy C and VMart in the 4 and 5. Glad that your data shows how bad they really are and what a stupid lineup they’ve been running out there consistently.
Leyland. Of him, I am not a big fan.
Well, yeah, he bats Austin Jackson leadoff, so there you go.
Did anyone else notice that the Angels are on the NL wOBA chart?
Those dastardly Angels double-dipped!
Awesome article.
Not only has 9th been the Orioles’ best hitter this year (is that mostly Hardy?), but their second-best has been the 8th hitter (mostly Wieters?). That is a great fact, and yes, tragic.
WHY IS WIETERS HITTING EIGHTH?!
Nice work. One small critique. If possible, I’d lop off the bottom halves of the wOBA graphs and start them .150 or something. As it is, it’s difficult (for me at least) to eyeball the different heights of the bars.
this is f’ing awesome.
Great article. I especially enjoyed looking at the team splits!
This is my favorite fangraphs article in a long while. The Orioles stat is an all time classic all by itself.
Wow! I think you might be crazy, but thanks.
These charts are awesome, even with the Angels in the NL. I think it’s good to see if people are really paying attention.
Can we please revisit these charts each month? Or if it is too time consuming, maybe every two months?
It’s preeeeetty time consuming, but maybe bi-monthly wouldn’t be too hard.
Please, don’t call it Frisco.
Sanfri? Bay Town? Bridgeopolis? Please suggest or select an alternative.
The City by the Bay
Frisco is a town in Texas. San Francisco can be abbreviated to San Fran, SF, or various other initialisms.
The whole 2-hole thing baffles me. I mean, it just makes no sense to take your suckiest hitter and bat him 2nd. Why did that become conventional wisdom?
Because the deadball era existed.
Play for one!
Yeah, it’s one of the dumber traditions. Any sandlot ballplayer will tell you: Just put your best guys at the top and all together.
Yep, 2nd batter myth is to hit weak grounders to the right side in order to move the leadoff runner who stole second and is now on 3rd with one out. What a waste.
First off this article is awesome. Second, where after wOBA does “The Book” (or you FanGraphs geniuses) rank lefty/righty matchups or platoon splits in putting together a lineup?
I’m not sure I totally understand your question, but in general, platoon splits can provide a huge advantage or disadvantage in a lineup. Using them appropriately can result in a far greater improvement in run scoring than merely rearranging a lineup.
1) Take platoon splits into consideration when designing a lineup. A team should use platoon-adjusted wOBA, which could mean a different order (even if it’s the same players) against a starting lefty vs. a starting righty.
2) The advantage of batting a high-wOBA player earlier in the lineup is that it is less likely that the guy before him makes the last out in the 9th inning. Alternating handedness (to force the other team to burn more relievers to maintain platoon advantage late in the game) is usually a bigger effect than having the ideal ranking of player order.
Awesome stuff. I love seeing the Pirates doing a fairly nice job (the 6th hitter notwithstanding) of adhering to this.
I do think it misses some non-saber points that I know may not be overly popular here. Numbers (at least these) don’t always reflect the effect that the rest of the lineup (mostly the batters immediately following) have on a certain spot in the order. For example, while batting fourth may be the 2nd most important spot in the lineup, it may be beneficial to bat a Bautistian batter 3rd because of the protection a 4th hitter may give him. Likewise, the numbers may be slightly skewed by the fact that pitchers will pitch batters differently based on who’s on base, etc. Finally, a lineup’s alternating between RHP and LHP may have an effect on the opposing manager’s use of his relief pitching that won’t be born out by these numbers.
Just a few initial non-saber thoughts.
Great article regardless.
“For example, while batting fourth may be the 2nd most important spot in the lineup, it may be beneficial to bat a Bautistian batter 3rd because of the protection a 4th hitter may give him.”
In a general sense I agree, but I think it should be the opposite with a bautistian batter. Bautista’s walk rate is other worldy right now, he’s not gonna go down swinging in most cases if they’re trying to disguise pitching around him. If Bautista bats third and say Lind bat’s second I’m thinking the general logic should be pitch around Bautista and pitch to Lind (who also had a disgusting lefty platoon split last year). If Bautista bats 4th and its assumed you want pitch around him anyway, I’m thinking if you bat Lind 3rd, you have to go after him. Bautista is much more dangerous at bat with Lind on, than Lind is at bat with Bautista on.
I meant to say if Lind bats 4th* not second.
appreciate the time you put into this.
all of this to me just reinforces the effect of seniority in baseball. Seniority continues to trump the underlying stats that show that it should be otherwise.
Awesome.
shouldn’t the “the” in “the Bautista” be capitalized? And can someone explain why Quade is putting out a Cubs lineup that wastes so much in the 6 spot?
i’m pretty sure any sentence with the word Bautista in it must capitalize only the word Bautista. It’s in the AP guidelines, or something.
Aaron Miles has compromising photos of me!
Has Braun been CS’d twice since this pub date? Scary. I think that PH HR helps him more than those hurt though:P
W.A.M.C.O. est.1993
White: .356 wOBA
Alomar: .407
Molitor: .406
Carter: .346
Olerud: .453
As this batting order had a catchy name and won the big one I thought I post their averages here to see what readers think would be an improved order.
M.A.C.O.W? or M.A.W.O.C?
Bradley, I don’t understand most of this but I loved reading every word, even the comments. And a mention on USATODAY.com! Way to go, buddy!
Call the Twins #2 spot the “Gardy Effect”. His philosophy is to bat a weak-hitting middle infielder who can “handle a bat” #2. What “handle a bat” means, I can only guess. But I think ‘scrapieness’ and willingness to sacrifice bunt in the first inning are key components. If a good hitter batted 2nd, it would look even more stupid to have him bunt in the 1st than it already does.