2011 wOBA: By Batting Order

The following data is current through 5-30-2011.

If you, dear reader, are like me, then you agonize unnecessarily over every lineup on every team in every game. Aaron Rowand leading off?! Yargh! No! Carlos Gomez batting second for the Brewers?! WRONG. Aaron Miles batting anything?! Unforgivable.

Holding egos constant, inefficiency is the greatest enemy of success. With regards to lineups, however, teams can really only lose a handful of runs over the course of full season, but a handful of runs, in real terms, can mean the difference between the division or a boring October. So it’s a dicey proposition. A mismanaged lineup on the Royals team does not mean a whole lot because they will lose the division by several trillion runs. A few lost runs for the Rays, Yankees, or Red Sox, though, can mean the season.

The Book by Tango, MGL, and Dolphin pretty effectively uncovers the ultimate lineup. Sky Kalkman on Beyond the Boxscore did a dandy job of Cliffnoting the chapter here, but honestly, if you have not read The Book, then what are you doing here, reading my stuff?! Go purchase said tome and grow in wisdom!

Anyway, The Book, using Markov Chains and Rasputin Ropes and all other manners of mystical devices, determined the following, summarized by Kalkman:

…Here’s how the lineup spots rank in the importance of avoiding outs:

#1, #4, #2, #5, #3, #6, #7, #8, #9

So, you want your best three hitters to hit in the #1, #4, and #2 spots. Distribute them so OBP is higher in the order and SLG is lower. Then place your fourth and fifth best hitters, with the #5 spot usually seeing the better hitter, unless he’s a high-homerun guy. Then place your four remaining hitters in decreasing order of overall hitting ability, with basestealers ahead of singles hitters. Finally, stop talking like the lineup is a make-or-break decision.

Conventional, ol’ timey wisdom dictates you slot weaker hitters into the #1 and #2 slots, and we can definitely see that manifest thus far in 2011:

Average wOBA per Slot

It is important to remember these numbers tell the season’s story; they do not prophesy its end. If we wanted to anticipate future performances, we would probably find the player’s career averages more informative. On the aggregate level like this, though, we can see a glimmer of the team’s priorities, as well as a number of notable early hot streaks.

Let’s delve into the specifics now.

The NL:

I am actually a rather big fan of batting the pitcher 8th and do so whenever I get the chance (which would be, through yesterday, never). However, when we consider how the #7, #8, and #9 slots have decreasing importance, it is somewhat impressive to see NL managers rather effectively utilizing this descent. Some managers seem compelled to bat the catcher 9th no matter who he his, but maybe we are seeing an end to that frustrating and backward era?

Also of note: The Washington Nationals basically have had turkey sandwiches batting 1st and 2nd. The combo of Rick Ankiel, Ian Desmond, and Roger Bernandina have combined for an epically bad start to every Nationals game.

We also can see how Kosuke Fukudome and Starlin Castro have combined the league’s best leadoff slot, but a large portion of that success is due to Fukudome’s hot, high-BABIP start. And down in Frisco, the Giants pitchers have flexed some uncommon muscle. [Nevermind. I was looking at the Angels, who snuck into both charts.] Jonathan Sanchez and Madison Bumgarner have combined for an impressive 5 doubles.

The AL:

Perhaps due to random fluctuations and uncommon cold stretches, AL hitters in the 7th slot are hitting worse (.294) than the average AL 9th slot (.300). The Twins, Mariners, and Orioles have certainly added to this unusual disparity, but the combo of Mike Napoli and Mitch Moreland have certainly added a lot of oomph to the #7 group, so we definitely cannot blame Texas.

The Twins seem to be putting anti-optimization to the test. Their combo of #2 hitters has compiled an impressively terrible sub-.250 wOBA while their #6 hitters have nearly averaged .350 wOBA. It’s not that I think Jim Thome should be leading off, it’s just that I think there’s a better way to arrange this.

Meanwhile, it would be funny if it was not tragic: The Orioles best hitting has come from the 9th slot.

For you extra nerdy fans, I’ve also included the meat of my dataset, plus steals and such:

Arizona Diamondbacks
Order	PA	HR	SB	CS	BABIP	wOBA
1st	257	9	13	6	.285	.344
2nd	247	7	12	2	.266	.301
3rd	238	10	9	4	.299	.370
4th	231	5	3	3	.336	.343
5th	228	9	4	1	.261	.316
6th	224	6	1	2	.299	.333
7th	219	5	4	0	.304	.353
8th	217	8	3	1	.327	.337
9th	212	3	0	0	.246	.205
Atlanta Braves
Order	PA	HR	SB	CS	BABIP	wOBA
1st	258	6	1	6	.289	.334
2nd	246	6	2	3	.279	.301
3rd	245	4	0	1	.277	.301
4th	239	7	1	0	.358	.367
5th	233	7	1	3	.205	.260
6th	228	9	1	1	.299	.348
7th	223	6	3	0	.258	.270
8th	217	6	0	0	.318	.354
9th	212	3	1	1	.231	.188
Baltimore Orioles
Order	PA	HR	SB	CS	BABIP	wOBA
1st	244	3	7	2	.261	.277
2nd	239	5	4	0	.257	.290
3rd	237	4	2	0	.293	.280
4th	230	5	0	0	.317	.329
5th	223	5	0	1	.272	.290
6th	218	6	5	1	.314	.339
7th	212	5	0	0	.238	.271
8th	202	9	3	0	.252	.343
9th	199	5	1	0	.352	.351
Boston Red Sox
Order	PA	HR	SB	CS	BABIP	wOBA
1st	254	5	17	6	.328	.354
2nd	254	4	14	2	.276	.310
3rd	247	9	0	0	.348	.377
4th	238	11	1	0	.306	.401
5th	234	7	2	1	.322	.406
6th	229	7	0	1	.286	.329
7th	225	6	2	2	.274	.298
8th	216	4	4	0	.291	.292
9th	210	6	2	2	.261	.312
Chicago Cubs
Order	PA	HR	SB	CS	BABIP	wOBA
1st	241	3	5	1	.402	.410
2nd	236	1	3	1	.319	.318
3rd	232	1	2	1	.332	.330
4th	226	3	0	1	.305	.326
5th	219	5	0	2	.338	.359
6th	215	11	0	0	.355	.403
7th	207	8	5	0	.302	.324
8th	201	4	0	2	.286	.300
9th	196	2	0	0	.242	.195
Chicago White Sox
Order	PA	HR	SB	CS	BABIP	wOBA
1st	261	0	9	8	.298	.305
2nd	256	5	2	2	.301	.330
3rd	251	10	2	4	.268	.341
4th	246	11	1	1	.302	.363
5th	242	7	0	0	.228	.289
6th	233	4	4	0	.241	.285
7th	222	6	3	3	.250	.284
8th	216	8	0	3	.289	.342
9th	209	3	4	4	.297	.295
Cincinnati Reds
Order	PA	HR	SB	CS	BABIP	wOBA
1st	269	8	17	2	.331	.327
2nd	262	6	7	0	.243	.300
3rd	251	6	4	3	.369	.421
4th	247	6	1	2	.277	.334
5th	242	15	4	1	.281	.369
6th	239	5	4	1	.331	.335
7th	231	6	1	3	.312	.329
8th	225	3	3	1	.270	.292
9th	218	5	1	0	.272	.253
Cleveland Indians
Order	PA	HR	SB	CS	BABIP	wOBA
1st	239	9	4	2	.310	.345
2nd	234	10	7	0	.306	.371
3rd	222	5	7	3	.321	.318
4th	217	7	1	1	.239	.317
5th	211	8	1	1	.350	.343
6th	209	3	2	2	.259	.262
7th	204	1	3	2	.306	.309
8th	200	6	2	1	.283	.326
9th	194	3	2	0	.301	.304
Colorado Rockies
Order	PA	HR	SB	CS	BABIP	wOBA
1st	251	0	4	6	.325	.302
2nd	247	2	5	2	.351	.339
3rd	244	9	6	1	.273	.329
4th	233	12	3	1	.219	.352
5th	227	11	2	2	.292	.386
6th	221	7	2	0	.311	.326
7th	214	5	6	1	.305	.344
8th	208	6	1	1	.270	.341
9th	204	2	0	1	.214	.166
Detroit Tigers
Order	PA	HR	SB	CS	BABIP	wOBA
1st	245	3	7	2	.288	.270
2nd	236	3	2	0	.313	.313
3rd	231	4	0	1	.234	.264
4th	228	11	0	1	.324	.407
5th	225	5	2	1	.294	.323
6th	220	9	4	0	.310	.365
7th	216	2	0	2	.280	.281
8th	207	9	2	0	.296	.332
9th	199	2	2	1	.290	.276
Florida Marlins
Order	PA	HR	SB	CS	BABIP	wOBA
1st	245	4	6	4	.291	.296
2nd	239	2	5	4	.242	.282
3rd	233	3	8	5	.297	.307
4th	229	7	1	0	.338	.379
5th	223	8	0	1	.320	.356
6th	214	13	1	0	.320	.411
7th	211	4	0	2	.300	.304
8th	204	3	1	1	.297	.291
9th	196	0	2	0	.257	.197
Houston Astros
Order	PA	HR	SB	CS	BABIP	wOBA
1st	252	1	21	2	.346	.321
2nd	242	2	8	1	.296	.301
3rd	239	7	3	0	.376	.376
4th	233	5	4	0	.260	.308
5th	226	4	2	1	.372	.338
6th	223	2	0	2	.268	.242
7th	217	5	2	0	.308	.321
8th	211	4	1	1	.304	.319
9th	202	3	2	0	.299	.256
Kansas City Royals
Order	PA	HR	SB	CS	BABIP	wOBA
1st	256	7	13	1	.228	.315
2nd	252	8	6	2	.295	.346
3rd	246	7	4	1	.333	.364
4th	238	5	5	1	.297	.324
5th	233	7	3	0	.290	.343
6th	228	3	4	2	.341	.328
7th	220	5	7	0	.299	.307
8th	214	2	2	1	.248	.315
9th	208	1	7	5	.304	.289
Los Angeles Angels
Order	PA	HR	SB	CS	BABIP	wOBA
1st	267	3	13	4	.316	.327
2nd	261	8	7	2	.335	.359
3rd	254	3	7	3	.317	.346
4th	249	9	2	2	.260	.319
5th	241	2	2	2	.282	.291
6th	234	6	4	1	.311	.322
7th	229	9	3	1	.296	.317
8th	225	4	1	3	.293	.298
9th	218	3	5	1	.299	.275
Los Angeles Dodgers
Order	PA	HR	SB	CS	BABIP	wOBA
1st	251	1	9	2	.262	.267
2nd	245	2	4	1	.358	.334
3rd	236	5	2	1	.372	.358
4th	235	12	14	3	.354	.390
5th	231	5	2	0	.274	.282
6th	226	4	1	2	.268	.265
7th	220	6	0	0	.245	.282
8th	216	2	1	1	.329	.289
9th	206	3	0	1	.165	.193
Milwaukee Brewers
Order	PA	HR	SB	CS	BABIP	wOBA
1st	252	9	6	2	.346	.368
2nd	243	7	9	3	.275	.295
3rd	236	12	13	1	.336	.424
4th	232	11	0	0	.290	.390
5th	229	3	0	1	.274	.298
6th	221	2	2	1	.280	.269
7th	217	5	4	1	.226	.246
8th	210	5	3	0	.340	.345
9th	204	4	2	0	.256	.222
Minnesota Twins
Order	PA	HR	SB	CS	BABIP	wOBA
1st	239	2	4	1	.326	.353
2nd	232	3	4	0	.213	.244
3rd	228	4	2	0	.304	.303
4th	219	5	0	0	.303	.318
5th	217	4	4	1	.275	.308
6th	213	7	2	1	.297	.346
7th	210	3	2	0	.252	.257
8th	201	1	1	1	.210	.214
9th	193	1	4	1	.268	.269
New York Mets
Order	PA	HR	SB	CS	BABIP	wOBA
1st	253	1	19	4	.354	.363
2nd	244	3	7	2	.272	.297
3rd	234	9	9	0	.292	.354
4th	228	6	3	1	.320	.348
5th	225	4	2	0	.312	.325
6th	221	6	3	3	.285	.339
7th	216	3	1	2	.364	.354
8th	212	4	4	1	.288	.283
9th	207	1	1	1	.209	.172
New York Yankees
Order	PA	HR	SB	CS	BABIP	wOBA
1st	250	2	6	2	.289	.298
2nd	241	14	7	3	.273	.377
3rd	237	16	0	1	.257	.395
4th	230	10	3	1	.289	.350
5th	225	9	5	1	.285	.347
6th	219	4	2	3	.241	.278
7th	211	8	1	1	.195	.296
8th	206	10	8	1	.350	.435
9th	199	7	10	3	.260	.326
Oakland Athletics
Order	PA	HR	SB	CS	BABIP	wOBA
1st	259	2	15	6	.258	.292
2nd	249	3	2	1	.259	.301
3rd	246	2	2	1	.290	.293
4th	238	9	3	0	.304	.334
5th	233	3	3	1	.263	.291
6th	228	4	3	0	.250	.307
7th	226	2	4	1	.256	.271
8th	219	3	1	0	.319	.317
9th	215	3	5	5	.288	.306
Philadelphia Phillies
Order	PA	HR	SB	CS	BABIP	wOBA
1st	255	6	12	1	.290	.327
2nd	249	5	7	1	.317	.359
3rd	244	3	6	1	.255	.294
4th	239	13	0	0	.298	.348
5th	234	4	6	3	.257	.289
6th	225	9	2	1	.285	.355
7th	216	3	1	0	.276	.287
8th	208	1	2	0	.277	.251
9th	206	1	2	1	.328	.234
Pittsburgh Pirates
Order	PA	HR	SB	CS	BABIP	wOBA
1st	237	8	15	5	.296	.361
2nd	228	4	9	2	.320	.323
3rd	223	5	3	2	.256	.306
4th	223	5	2	0	.277	.317
5th	220	4	2	1	.236	.254
6th	214	11	1	2	.329	.393
7th	203	2	1	2	.315	.293
8th	199	2	1	2	.290	.276
9th	192	0	1	1	.215	.140
San Diego Padres
Order	PA	HR	SB	CS	BABIP	wOBA
1st	249	2	12	7	.295	.288
2nd	245	2	14	1	.301	.296
3rd	239	0	6	1	.260	.253
4th	237	5	1	0	.248	.267
5th	228	9	3	1	.305	.329
6th	219	8	7	0	.364	.373
7th	215	2	6	1	.240	.242
8th	208	2	1	1	.286	.284
9th	201	3	3	2	.217	.193
San Francisco Giants
Order	PA	HR	SB	CS	BABIP	wOBA
1st	241	2	7	2	.350	.326
2nd	236	2	2	2	.321	.308
3rd	233	4	4	2	.260	.279
4th	227	4	6	1	.270	.282
5th	219	10	2	2	.307	.378
6th	216	7	5	1	.252	.312
7th	210	3	2	4	.248	.267
8th	208	3	4	0	.285	.299
9th	199	2	1	1	.261	.202
Seattle Mariners
Order	PA	HR	SB	CS	BABIP	wOBA
1st	241	0	13	4	.293	.301
2nd	237	1	8	5	.215	.249
3rd	232	6	5	0	.264	.312
4th	229	3	2	0	.291	.288
5th	223	7	1	2	.306	.341
6th	220	5	3	3	.309	.327
7th	213	3	3	5	.296	.266
8th	206	1	4	1	.223	.232
9th	197	2	3	1	.319	.309
St. Louis Cardinals
Order	PA	HR	SB	CS	BABIP	wOBA
1st	262	0	7	1	.319	.305
2nd	255	5	4	2	.406	.397
3rd	249	9	4	0	.268	.351
4th	246	7	1	3	.387	.398
5th	240	12	3	1	.331	.413
6th	235	7	4	3	.311	.342
7th	234	3	1	2	.358	.368
8th	222	1	4	1	.280	.282
9th	212	1	1	0	.202	.188
Tampa Bay Rays
Order	PA	HR	SB	CS	BABIP	wOBA
1st	247	4	12	8	.257	.292
2nd	239	5	4	2	.286	.309
3rd	230	6	6	0	.344	.358
4th	226	7	5	1	.241	.302
5th	221	13	4	1	.338	.400
6th	215	5	8	4	.318	.325
7th	208	1	3	0	.264	.281
8th	198	8	1	3	.278	.312
9th	195	3	4	0	.248	.265
Texas Rangers
Order	PA	HR	SB	CS	BABIP	wOBA
1st	250	7	14	2	.267	.361
2nd	247	2	13	2	.304	.307
3rd	238	3	6	0	.362	.355
4th	233	9	1	2	.270	.364
5th	229	6	1	1	.265	.292
6th	221	13	2	4	.226	.342
7th	215	11	3	1	.295	.377
8th	210	9	1	0	.262	.338
9th	203	4	9	2	.272	.317
Toronto Blue Jays
Order	PA	HR	SB	CS	BABIP	wOBA
1st	257	5	7	4	.286	.319
2nd	251	6	8	4	.335	.333
3rd	245	20	5	2	.315	.487
4th	242	7	6	1	.294	.315
5th	233	4	6	1	.314	.337
6th	231	6	3	0	.199	.252
7th	220	3	5	3	.289	.308
8th	213	3	6	2	.325	.329
9th	211	5	5	4	.280	.309
Washington Nationals
Order	PA	HR	SB	CS	BABIP	wOBA
1st	244	4	13	0	.233	.257
2nd	238	2	9	1	.254	.257
3rd	232	7	6	2	.326	.364
4th	225	8	3	0	.248	.321
5th	218	7	2	4	.255	.298
6th	211	10	4	3	.338	.345
7th	207	5	5	3	.309	.337
8th	202	4	1	1	.257	.274
9th	193	0	1	1	.254	.201