2012 FanGraphs Franchise Player Draft
Last week, ESPN conducted their second annual Franchise Player Draft, where they recruited thirty of their contributors to select players to theoretically build a team around. When they did this last year, we thought it was a fun idea, so (with their permission), we did one ourselves. Obviously, our guys have a slightly different perspective than many of the ESPN guys, so while the idea is the same, the theories behind the picks are not. It won’t take very long for you to see where some of the ideological differences begin to display themselves.
The draftees were given fairly simple instructions — everyone is starting a franchise from scratch, so it’s up to you to decide how to value short term versus long term wins. You’re not currently in either rebuilding or win now mode, but what pick you make might determine which path you go down. You will control the player’s rights for 10 years, and the actual contract they are signed to in MLB does not come into play. This is solely based on expected future production, so there is no cost analysis that needs to be done. That’s the game — take the guy that you would most want to build around for the next 10 years.
So, without further ado, let’s get to the picks.
#1 — Mike Axisa: Matt Kemp, OF
I place a lot more value on the first five years of this ten-year span than the second five years, and Kemp’s the best all-around player in the game. He hits for average, hits for power, draws walks, steals a ton of bases, and had shown tremendous durability up until this recent hamstring injury. His defense isn’t the greatest but I’ll gladly take the hit knowing I’ve got this guy at age 27 and through his peak years.
#2 — Dan Wade: Bryce Harper, OF
I toyed with the idea of taking a pitcher here, Clayton Kershaw most likely, but I just don’t see the gap between the type of pitcher who is available here and the ones available in a hypothetical round two or three being as wide as the gap between Harper and the next set of outfielders. The difference between he and Mike Trout, to me, is almost a coin-flip at this stage of their careers; Harper’s edge is his age. The extra year isn’t a huge deal, but when almost everything else between is equal, something has to be the tipping point.
#3 — Erik Hahmann: Troy Tulowitzki, SS
It’s hard to not love a 28-year-old who has a .393 wOBA over the past three-plus seasons. It’s especially hard when he’s also an excellent defensive shortstop. Like Axisa with Kemp, I put more weight on the first five years of the deal. Tulowitzki has been the best all-around shortstop in baseball for years now and it hasn’t been remotely close. He hits for average and power and is in the midst of his prime seasons.
#4 — Wendy Thurm: Mike Trout, OF
This 20-year-old can do it all and would make the perfect cornerstone for a franchise for the next ten years. In a little over a month in the majors, Trout’s made a major positive impact on the Angels’ offense and defense. He hits for average, takes walks, and hits for power. His speed is a tremendous asset, both on the base paths (stealing bases, taking extra bases on hits) and in the outfield, where he runs down even tricky fly balls with ease. Trout is a fantastic all-around ballplayer.
#5 — Paul Swydan: Evan Longoria, 3B
Since the start of the 2010 season, the third baseman has been one of the five-seven valuable position players in the game. Longoria provides both superb offense and defense, and he does so at a premium defensive position. What’s more, he is head and shoulders better than any under-30 third baseman, as the next best player — Ryan Zimmerman — has been worth over four wins less. And at just 26 years old, Longoria is just entering his prime. The only problem is that I can’t have two of him.
#6 — Steve Slowinski: Ryan Braun, OF
This isn’t exactly a daring or risky pick, but hey, I’m not complaining. Braun is 28 years old, has plenty of his prime ahead of him, and he’s one heck of a hitter. Since the beginning of the 2011 season, he’s been the best hitter in all of baseball — he narrowly nudges out Matt Kemp, according to wRC+ — and he’s still among the top five if we go all the way back to the beginning of 2010. His defense isn’t anything to write home about, but he’s become an average corner outfielder; combine that with above average baserunning, and Braun should be a perennial contender for MVP for a long time coming. Considering how rare (and expensive) pure hitters of his caliber are, I simply can’t pass him up.
#7 — Chris Cwik: Justin Upton, OF
I agonized over taking Upton or Andrew McCutchen with this pick. While it was incredibly tough to choose, there were a few areas I felt Upton was superior. He’s still just 24-years-old, plays above-average defense in right field and has shown more power than McCutchen. Upton’s numbers have been suppressed this year due to a thumb injury, but that shouldn’t affect his future performance. Last season, hit 31 home runs, stole 21 bases and was worth 6.4 WAR. That’s the real Upton, and the one I expect to anchor my team for years to come.
#8 — J.P. Breen: Clayton Kershaw, SP
Though Andrew McCutchen remains on the board and any single pitcher carries inherent risk, Clayton Kershaw is the pick. He is just 24-years-old and already has an impressive track record of dominance at the big league level. Since 2009, his 2.61 ERA ranks the best of any qualified starter, and his FIP has never climbed above 3.12 in any single season within that time frame. He is one of the top two or three pitchers in baseball as we speak, and the left-hander has not even reached his prime. I will gladly take a 24-year-old Cy Young winner who has churned out sub-3.00 ERAs in three-consecutive seasons and is currently on pace to make it four.
#9 — Brandon Warne: Giancarlo Stanton, OF
Stanton or McCutchen? McCutchen or Stanton? I agonized over these two overnight before taking the prodigious power of Stanton, who is three full years younger than ‘Cutch and will be 22 for the entire 2012 season. Stanton plays a capable right field, possesses arguably the best power tool in the entire game, and has seen his K rate tumble ~ 5 percent in each season of his three-year career. With an iso approaching .300, Stanton may well have his first of many 40 home run seasons in 2012, so I’ll gladly take him on my club for the next decade.
#10 — Alex Remington: Andrew McCutchen, OF
The best all-around player left on the board, I’m thrilled to be able to select him here. He’s in just his fourth season, and he’s a year younger than Adam Jones. When you want to build a team it’s hard to go wrong with a guy who can do it all in center field. Still an underrated superstar.
#11 — Mike Newman: Elvis Andrus, SS
Check the FanGraphs leaderboards and only two current shortstops are all but guaranteed to still be playing the position a decade from now barring injury. One is Alcides Escobar, the other is Elvis Andrus. At 23, Andrus is already a 4-5 win players and projects for more as he grows into a .300/.380 hitter with what I hope will be double-digit home run upside. Add his already plus defense and what’s left is an elite up-the-middle talent with an extremely high floor. This pick will be a lightning rod for sure, but from making the minor league rounds, I’m convinced power and arms are easier to find than shortstops who contribute on both sides of the ball.
#12 — Mike Petriello: Stephen Strasburg, SP
I really, really didn’t want to take a pitcher in the first round, given the inherent injury risks involved, but with most of the young offensive talent I would have considered here gone – the other contender for this pick was Joey Votto, though 1B isn’t exactly a premium position – it’s hard to go against the 2009 #1 pick who has somehow exceeded the overwhelming hype that accompanied his entrance into the league. His return from Tommy John surgery has been one of the most impressive we’ve seen, given that he’s hardly missed a beat in stuff or control, currently third on the K/9 leaderboards. You could argue for Justin Verlander here, having the best year of a fantastic career, but Verlander is nearly six years older with about 1400 more professional innings on his odometer. Risk or not, no available starting pitcher is better equipped to lead my team into the next decade than the 23-year-old Washington phenom.
#13 — Carson Cistulli: Joey Votto, 1B
The Ideal Franchise Player would, it seems, possess three traits: youth, the ability to play a premier defensive position, and an excellent offensive game. The 28-year-old Votto has some of the first and less of the second, but is such a talented hitter as to render the other considerations moot. The only player currently projected by ZiPS to end the present season with a higher WAR is Josh Hamilton, who’s two-and-a-half years older than Votto. Also, it’s scientifically proven that Italian men grow only stronger and handsomer with age, which will be of great benefit to my totally real franchise that I own.
#14 —J.D. Sussman: Carlos Gonzalez, OF
Whether or not my franchise will by playing in Coors Field, I’m ecstatic slotting Carlos Gonzalez into my daily lineup. Since making his major league debut at age 22, Cargo has proven himself to be a legitimate middle of the order hitter. Of course, like any Colorado Rockie, he has a home/road split but that doesn’t undermine the pick. Gonzalez is still just 26 and is the perfect balance of production and youth that should beget a strong performance for the next 10 seasons.
#15 — David Wiers: Jay Bruce, OF
When looking for a franchise player you want talent and stability. For the next 10 years, Bruce offers plenty of both. Since the 2010 season, Bruce’s BB% is a robust 10.0% and he is tied for the 17th most home runs in baseball. Just now in his age 24-25 season, Bruce already has a 30 home run season under his belt and is on pace to do it again this year. His ISO is at an all time high right now and one can reasonably expect him to maintain an ISO among the league leaders. Several 30 HR and 30 double seasons aren’t a stretch of the imagination for Bruce. Now, by no means are his talents limited to the dish either; in every qualified season he rates as a positive base runner and his career UZR/150 is 7.4. Bruce contributes is a variety of different ways on both sides of the ball: just as any franchise player should.
#16 — Benjamin Pasinkoff: Starlin Castro, SS
Before the draft I told myself that I wanted a young player at a premium position and I believe I have found just that in Starlin Castro. Of course Castro has his warts – he doesn’t play defense particularly well (career -3.0 UZR/150) or walk much (career BB% of 4.8%) but young, every day shortstops that hit above average don’t really grow on trees, or in many farm systems for that matter. Castro is just 22 years old and since 2010 he has already been one of the most valuable shortstops in the league (7.2 WAR). For what it’s worth, Cincinnati Reds prospect Billy Hamilton is getting a ton of hype at High-A ball and Castro is only six months older. So, while Hamilton is putting up numbers in the low minor leagues (with questions of moving him to center field), Starlin Castro was making his mark on the league in his second season (109 wRC+). Defensive concerns may move Castro off of shortstop, but I’m confident he can stay at the position as there is precedent for young, good hitting/poor fielding shortstops having successful careers at the position. Castro has already proven that he has a great, reliable floor and I’d only expect him to improve over the next 10 years, I’m glad to have him on my team.
#17 — Bradley Woodrum: Matt Wieters, C
Last year, I had Giancarlo Stanton fall into my lap, but this year I had to really work for it. There are a slew of good candidates for this slot, but I’m taking the first catcher. Wieters is not the best offensive catcher in the league, nor the best fielder, but he’s young (26), he does a little bit of everything, and unlike Buster Posey, Wieters should stay a catcher for a long time.
#18 — Ben Duronio: Miguel Cabrera, 1B
I’ll take the player with the highest overall wRC+ since 2009 with the 18th pick. Cabrera is on the older side for this type of list, but his overall skills at the plate should allow him to be productive at least until his mid-30′s. Not many players can combine the type of contact skills Cabrera has with the tremendous power he displays daily. If the question were over the next five years, I would be tempted to take Cabrera first overall, so I am more than happy with grabbing him this late in the draft.
#19 — Eric Seidman: Robinson Cano, 2B
At this point of the draft the decision boiled down to an elite hitter nearing the tail-end of his prime or an upper echelon starting pitcher. In my view, Cano was the last somewhat younger elite hitter on the table absolutely worth taking ahead of a pitcher. He has improved his defense quite a bit and has really come into his own over the last few seasons. Since 2009, he is about average in the field, a plus-baserunner, and a .376 wOBA hitter. Put everything together and his 18.6 WAR ranks 10th among the 248 qualifying players in the span. Second baseman don’t age particularly well but he shouldn’t have trouble sticking at the position and tallying 4+ WAR for the next five years.
#20 — Jason Catania: Felix Hernandez, SP
I would have taken either Miguel Cabrera or Robinson Cano — the last two elite, proven hitters, in my opinion — had one of them dropped to me, but the pendulum has swung so far to the hitter’s side (17 of 19 picks) that it’s nearly impossible to pass up the value of a 230-inning horse with a résumé like Hernandez’s here. While his decline in velocity to start this season is a bit worrisome, it also could be a non-issue by the All-Star break, and I seriously doubt that a man who goes by King would have lasted this long otherwise. Although Justin Verlander might be the better pick for the next two or three years, Hernandez is still in his age 26 season (Verlander: 30 before next season), making Clayton Kershaw the only other pitcher I’d rather have over the long haul (i.e., 5-10 years) at this moment. Let that debate begin.
#21 — Jack Moore: Justin Verlander, SP
I value present value much higher than future value. It’s hard enough to project a year out, much less four years and forget about anything beyond that. With Miguel Cabrera and Robinson Cano off the board, pretty much all the elite hitters are gone, and Verlander is the best pitcher going currently. Four straight years (including 2012) with a FIP under 3.00 and an ERA under 3.50. Sure, he’s 29, and it’s tough to bet on him beyond age 33, but there just isn’t a better short-term value to be found at this point in the draft.
#22 — Bill Petti: Manny Machado, SS
Picking at 21, most of the proven offensive anchors were off the board. And while there are certainly live arms left out there, a pitcher’s life span is as short as it is unpredictable. So I’ll take a different risk and be the first to select a minor league player. Keith Law recently ranked the 19-year-old Orioles farmhand as the fourth-best prospect in all of baseball. And with Harper, Trout, and Moore all moving on to regular roles with their major league clubs, Law moved Machado up to third just last month. Machado projects as an excellent hitter, with significant upside in terms of power. He has also shown great plate discipline, which is an excellent sign in a hitter so young. He’s currently a shortstop, but may grow out of the position as his body matures. Regardless, he’s likely an average defensive shortstop that will provide stability up the middle for the first half of his career. As he ages, he’ll still provide value as a corner infielder. And given his age, 10 years of control means he’ll just be 29 when he hits the market.
#23 — Zach Sanders: Mike Moustakas, 3B
Moustakas is posting a .358 wOBA in his age-23 season, and reports on his defense have been surprisingly glowing. Finding a third baseman that’s an offensive weapon while being more than serviceable at the hot corner is extremely difficult, so pouncing on Moustakas was necessary. At 23-years old, I’m getting Moose through his prime without much mess on the other side. I strongly considered Brett Lawrie, but opted to go with Moustakas since he swings from the left side of the dish.
#24 — Jeff Zimmerman: Dustin Pedroia, 2B
I never considered going with a pitcher with my chose. Just too much unpredictability. I was stuck this late in the draft by either choosing a young, unproven hitter (like my Hosmer pick last year) or someone that has a few miles on them. Instead of rolling the dice that a younger player would pan out, I went with the experienced player this year. I limited my search to players under the age of 30 that played a premium position. Of the players not already taken, Dustin was the best available player. Over the last 3+ he is 12th in the majors in total WAR. For the reason of age (28 years-old), premium position (2B) and good fielder and hitter, I feel Pedroia was the best player for me at this point in the draft.
#25 — Dave Cameron: Brett Lawrie, 3B
If he had struggled last year and then was hitting like a monster this year instead of the other way around, I have a feeling he might have gone quite a bit higher. As it is, I’ll be building around a 22-year-old who has posted a 122 wRC+ in a half season of big league time, and is flashing better defense at third base than anyone expected. ZIPS thinks he’s already a true talent +4 win player and he’s got the physical skills to max out as a legitimate superstar. I also considered Jurickson Profar here, but in the end, Lawrie’s combination of present value and upside was simply too much to pass up.
#26 — Matt Klaassen: Eric Hosmer, 1B
Like Lawrie, if Hosmer’s 2011 and 2012 lines were reversed, he probably would have gone much higher. Actually, if we had had this draft two months ago, he would have gone much higher. Hosmer’s 2012 season has been pretty awful so far, and it would be too simplistic to simply dismiss his problems as “bad BABIP luck.” With that said, I feel pretty comfortable saying (on the basis of his prior major- and minor-league track record) he probably is not a true talent .215 BABIP hitter. His power numbers are about the same as last year, and his plate discipline has actually been better. Hosmer almost universal generated raves two months ago, and I do not see how a little over 200 plate appearances should change things all that much. Keep in mind that Hosmer will not turn 23 until after the regular season is over.
#27 — Chad Young: Buster Posey, C
For a while there, I thought Brett Lawrie might fall to me, but with him out of the way, I turned my attention to two young catchers – Posey and Carlos Santana. Posey is a year younger and provides better defense. Posey is on pace to crack 4 WAR again this year (as he did in 2010 and would have done in 2011 if not for injury). Getting solid defense and well-above-average offense out of a premium position from a 25 year old is just too good to pass up this late. Sure, he may have to move out from behind the plate at some point during this contract, but this late in the round, I’ll gladly take that risk.
#28 — Michael Barr: Jurickson Profar, SS
It wasn’t my preference to hang my hat on a 19 year old with no experience beyond double-A, but Jurickson Profar was just too enticing to pass up. Like many others, I wanted to avoid the fickle tendencies of pitcher health but most of the offensive options I had in mind way down here at the barrel bottom were gone. But with Profar, I have a potential impact bat playing a premium position, under team control before he even sniffs 30 years of age. At double-A Frisco, Profar is currently hitting .286/.355/.484 with 26 extra base hits, including six home runs plus seven stolen bases in just 53 games. He has great command of the strike zone, has drawn walks in over 10% of his minor league plate appearances, and has demonstrated good power despite being listed at just 165 lbs. Profar rates as having excellent range and a plus arm on defense, should hit for a good average with double digit home runs and steals. It’s the “should” in the prospecting which makes me nervous, but Profar has all the tools to be a true star in the major leagues. And he just turned 19 in February.
#29 — Eno Sarris: Jason Heyward, OF
My priorities were to avoid putting the future of my franchise on the elbow ligament of a pitcher or the knee ligament of a catcher, all while picking an established talent in order to avoid the possibility that the player has a flaw that the major leagues would expose. Oh, and I wanted the player to play up the middle. Pick down here at 29, though, and something has to go. So out goes up-the-middle defense at least. While some would argue that the 22-year-old Heyward is not yet established as an elite talent, his five-win rookie season at 20 years old was once fodder for breathless predictions, and the 650 PAs since shouldn’t take all of the wind out of his sails. He still has athleticism in the field and on the basepaths, emerging power, and that elite-level patience. A .730 OPS for a franchise cornerstone corner outfielder might raise some eyebrows, but a slowly developing batted ball mix, as well as excellent minor league numbers, gives hope that Heyward’s power will catch up to other facets of his game, which are already very exciting.
#30 — Howard Bender: Nolan Arenado, 3B
Similarly to everyone else picking down here at the bottom, with the prime offensive weapons off the board and the lack of desire to go with a pitcher, hoping for the best with respect to arm troubles and life span, the idea of grabbing a young third baseman with strong defensive skills and developing power was the most enticing. I thought about David Wright here, but at nearly 10 years Arenado’s senior, I thought youth was the better way to begin a franchise. Defensively, Arenado is rock solid. He’s got great hands, a strong arm, great instincts and good lateral mobility. Being 6′ 1″ and 205 lbs at just the age of 20, he should fill out which might hinder some of his defensive capabilities, but it will also help with his power so there’s some give and take as he starts to near his prime. He’s got a good eye at the plate with a modest walk rate but doesn’t strike out very often. He makes good, strong contact when he’s up there and, as stated before, has strong power that will continue to develop. His ISO should average around the .180 mark, so don’t let the slow start at Double-A this year deter you. He’s going to be a star at the hot corner for years to come.
No David Wright!
Hey, you could have taken him.
Where is Jeff Samardzija?
No Lombardozzi either?
The Lombo Lobby will start working to ensure that he’s taken next year.
you can’t pick what you can’t spell.
or wilson ramos
where’s Jeff Samardzija?!? haha
proof of the Jungian concept of collective unconscious!
The Samardzija archetype
This offseason Pujols and Fielder got $200 million + yet were not drafted. Interesting.
Pujols going undrafted is legitimately surprising, and I think difficult to justify at least for those who picked minor leaguers over him.
Ten years is a long time. Can you build for ten years around a guy currently playing in his age 32 season?
No one is saying this player has to bat 3rd for the next ten years… you merely have control of the player for that long. I find it VERY surprising that neither Pujols nor Fielder were drafted. 3-5 years of a dominant player is better than a 19 year old with no ML experience, in my opinion. Too much can happen.
These are players you want to build a team around for the next 10 years. I don’t even know if he’d make this list if you were to build around the player for 5.
But with minor leaguers, even highly-touted prospects, there’s a big risk you never even get league average production.
Chris Sale is criminally underrated. He should have gone in the first half of these picks.
There were 4 starting pitchers taken and they all have long track records of health. Sale has terrible mechanics and already missed time this year with arm soreness. One of these things is not like the others.
Sale has missed one start with elbow soreness. Strasburg missed close to a full season due to TJ surgery. There are no guarantees with pitcher health, regardless of how clean the mechanics are. Sale is currently 4th in WAR among pitchers, 9th in K/9, and 6th in xFIP. At age 23. It’s hard for me to believe that isn’t worthy of a top 30 pick in a draft such as this one.
Well you’re looking for different things in this draft then. Pitchers being young is not nearly the positive it is for hitters. In fact, in an exercise like this it’s entirely possible to argue it’s a negative if they’re mostly unproven (and Sale definitely fits in that category). Strasburg is an exception because he has arguably the best stuff we have ever seen from a pitcher. Sale has very good stuff, but it isn’t in the same league as Strasburg’s.
Pirates great James McDonald is currently 4th in WAR, 17th in K/9 (only .36 behind Sale), 4th in FIP, and 15th in xFIP (though only .22 behind Sale). At only 27 and just entering his prime, it’s hard for me to believe that isn’t worthy of a top-30 pick in a draft such as this one.
Or maybe we shouldn’t overestimate a two month sample size?
Good to see you know a ton in biomechanics. So how are his mechanics “terrible” again?
Strasburg already had Tommy John and has done nothing to correct the flaws in his pithing biomechanics that lead to his prior injury. He’s at huge risk for further injury. There was an ESPN article about it last month, but he puts a tremendous amount of strain on the medial part of his elbow every time her throws.
Terrible hyperabduction of the pitching arm elbow. A comment on hyperabduction from an orthopedic surgeon.
“In the position of hyperabduction, elevation and extension of the distal humerus above the shoulder, the inferior glenohumeral ligament is placed on stretch. The humeral head must lever against it to advance the arm forward. This ligament is the primary anterior stabilizer of the glenohumeral joint with the arm elevated (i.e. pitching). In other words, this position places this ligament under tension, then it is levered against in order to throw. This eventually will either loosen the shoulder, or tear the anterior labrum.”
No, we haven’t seen advanced biomechanical studies on this stuff, but then again we probably never well. Funding from academic institutions is rarely there for sports type research, a large percentage of the researchers aren’t even interested, and teams are going to want any discoveries from research they support to stay proprietary knowledge and not be published in freely available peer review journals. If you want to completely ignore the field, that’s your choice. It doesn’t mean the rest of us have to.
Sale doesn’t just have bad mechanics per “new age” mechanics guys either. He also has terrible mechanics from a classic scouting philosophy. He could be a genetic freak that can get away with it, but if I had to bet on it, I think he’ll get injured sooner rather than later.
This. And Strasburg has come back 100% from TJ surgery. Sale is a wild card. While I think he’s a great pitcher, there’s no saying what happens to him this year, the next, or thereafter.
Dude….you’re like, totally, wrong.
@CabreraDeath – How so?
Nitram said enough. Anything else would either be redundant or piling on…..
you’re high
You’re drunk
Saying nothing about where they were taken, but, by simply comparing Machado and Profar, there’s really no good reason that Machado should be 6 spots ahead of Profar. Better defense, better chance at sticking at SS, and better all-around hit tool (in my opinion, sans the power) should have Profar being selected ahead of Manny (who is also glorious, obviously).
Arenado should not be on this list.
Agreed. Profar is ab absolute beast who I’m really not looking forward to seeing in the AL West.
Starlin Castro at 16? He’s a slightly above-average offensive player who most people think will have to switch off SS. In 2.5 seasons, his BB% is 4.8. Best case scenario, he’s an above average starter. Simply not enough value to to pick at 16 over the likes of Felix Hernandez or Brett Lawrie.
Also, Woodrum’s comment on Wieters is interesting..he actually IS the best fielder in the league, or at least he was by a good sized margin last year according to several different metrics. Not convinced that a guy his size is going to stay at C for another 5-10 years, but not a bad pick.
The way I see it, Castro is a perfectly reasonable player to build a ballclub around if that’s who you’ve got, but not someone you should reach out to make the centerpiece of your team. So I agree he’s a big overdraft at 16.
It’s interesting how many people are down on Castro this year. I see “hype” mentioned a lot. I’m not sure where the hype is coming from but I don’t want to accuse anyone of making it up so I’ll accept that it’s there. Obviously it must have gotten a little hyperbolic recently.
That said, the backlash seems to be getting a little out of hand. It’s amazing how dismissive people are of his age. A comment further down comps a 21 year old to a 29 year old, both producing 3.5 WAR seasons, the 29 year old receiving a positive fielding contribution and the 21 year a negative one, their wRC+s being 109 and 101, the 21 year old claiming the higher mark, and then goes on to claim that the comparison is legitimate. I disagree.
Castro’s offensive game should have some room to improve, even if we accept he’s never going to hit like Hanley Ramirez in his prime. Even if it plateaus at the 2011 level, 109 wRC+ is still fine, particularly from a middle infielder.
There has been talk of defensive improvements this year but I don’t know enough about the situation to argue that either way. We can safely assume he’s pretty bad defensively until he proves otherwise over a stretch of a couple of years. So naturally if he’s not contributing defensively or if he has to move off short, that hits his value and if he can’t find a good defensive home, that could hit his value hard.
He may have already reached his ceiling, offensively, defensively, every which way. This may be what he is. But we know most players don’t peak at 22. We know that. So I can’t see that it’s a safe bet to assume this one player has.
These are the ZiPs projections run preseason for his peak years:
Dan Szymborski Posted: October 27, 2011 at 06:29 PM (#3977091)
Going through Castro’s Prime:
Year BA/OBP/SLG WAR
2012 301/343/432 3.5
2013 308/352/464 4.4
2014 310/356/475 4.8
2015 311/359/479 5.0
2016 310/359/487 5.2
2017 309/360/483 5.1
2018 304/357/479 4.8
2019 304/357/479 4.7
2020 302/354/471 4.3
2021 300/351/466 3.9
Now that wouldn’t have him as one of the very top position players over his three or four peak years but I think it would have him at about top 15, certainly top 20.
Maybe Pick 16 was a bit high here but I’d definitely have him in the 30 and “above average starter” really does not seem like the best case scenario.
That projection seems very aggressive, and of course it assumes health. Even then, it has him maxing out as 5.2 WAR. A player who maxes out at 5.2 WAR seems to pretty squarely fit the “above average player” label. Looking at the last few years, a 5.2 WAR player is roughly the 20-25th best position player in the game. That of course does not include pitchers.
If I can have my choice of anyone in baseball to build a team around, and there are only 15 players off the board, there is simply no way I would choose someone who, in his best season, will only be one of the 20-25 best position players in the game. You don’t win World Series anchored around 5.2 win players.
From the article: “You’re not currently in either rebuilding or win now mode, but what pick you make might determine which path you go down.”
I guess taking Castro at 16 puts them squarely into rebuilding mode right outta the gate :-)
I don’t agree that it seems aggressive considering he had a 3.5 WAR season at age 21. As for the average player thing, I thought league average was right around 2 WAR – that would make 5 closer to all star level than simply above average, no? That’s not really important anyway. Again, I didn’t say I’d pick him at 16. I’m just questioning why people are so down on his future prospects. The reaction to his placement here and to that on the ESPN list (not justifiable either, I know) suggests to me that a lot think he shouldn’t be on these lists at all. And I disagree with that notion. Am I reading too much in to that?
Look, he was basically a year older than Profar is now when he hit the majors and he put up 2.5 wins. How much better than that do you think Profar is really likely to do if he’s in Texas in summer 2013? I think it’s possible that because he never got right to the top of the prospect lists and because he came up so young, it has been assumed to too great a degree that he is, or is very close to being, the finished version of what he could become. His remaining potential doesn’t get enough credit.
I posted this posted this for a cubs article on here the other day, but it’s worth repeating: He’s 22 and has the same WAR as Hanley since 2010 (Starlin’s first season).
Arenado is a joke with the 30th pick
Yeah, he’s not even necessarily a guarantee to be a top 30 prospect by the end of the season. Awful, awful pick.
No Wright or Hanley in this draft
@Justin: You’re talking about 2 guys whose offensive numbers shown downward trends prior to this year. They’re both good players and have rebounded so far this season, but neither of them have been better than average defensively. It’s only a matter of time before they’re moved to 1st, where their bats won’t play as well.
They may not put up the same offensive numbers that they did a few seasons ago, but they are far and away better options to build a franchise around than a somewhat talented 3B prospect in AA. C’mon man
@Justin:
I’m in no way defending the Arenado pick. Just giving reasons to exclude Ramirez and Wright.
Even if Arenado reaches his ceiling, I would think there are several other minor leaguers who will lap him. Hell, I’d definitely take Bundy over him.
agreed. i thought machado over lawrie was the worst pick in the draft until i scrolled down further. most of the list makes sense, but ooof…. a few really bad gaffes.
Yeah, even as an O’s fan I was pretty shocked to see Machado go where he did. I get taking him over Bundy, as I’d take a position player over the pitcher too. But over a guy like Lawrie, who’s already producing in MLB while Machado is simply holding his own given his age in AA? And of course he went ahead of Profar, even though industry consensus seems to be that Profar has surpassed him and is far more likely to stick at SS. I think you could make a case for Machado going round 1, but only near the end and certainly not over a guy like Lawrie (who went entirely too low).
Yeah, I agree that Arenado was the worst pick. How can you not pick someone like Pablo Sandoval (who has been completely forgotten in the comments as well) over a 3rd base prospect whose ceiling might be what Sandoval is now? I understand the weight concerns, but he’s got a great bat, better than average defense at 3rd, his hamate bones have been taken out, and he’s still only 25.
scott – the arenado pick almost seems like going against the grain just to do it, like 80% of fangraphs articles before 2010. youre right, easily the worst on the list. i think arenado would be a stretch at pick no. 30 in ROUND TWO, honestly.
the machado pick, i mean i think he’ll be good. but the kid has struggled in going on 500 plate appearances now. hes still in AA. not as good as profar…. yada yada yada
i dont think it was quite as bad as the bruce or arenado pick, but still one of a few head scratchers.
Fair enough, but there is still a lot to like about Wright and Hanley.
“The difference between he and Mike Trout, to me, is almost a coin-flip at this stage of their careers; Harper’s edge is his age. The extra year isn’t a huge deal, but when almost everything else between is equal, something has to be the tipping point.”
As I understand it, you’re only looking at the next ten years for the purposes of this exercise. In that case, the age should actually be a tiebreaker in Trout’s favor, not Harper’s. You get an extra close to prime year from Trout (his age 30 season) at the end, over an extra development year from Harper (his age 20 season) at the beginning.
While what you say is true, I believe the point is that if 2 players are equal and one is 19 while the other is 20, the teen is likely to be the more talented since he developed younger.
harper is OPSing 900 in the big leagues as a 19 year old. you cant compare to him traditional prospects, who are in A ball at 19 (even the good ones). the dudes a phenom, and shouldnt be looked through the same lens.
if a 19 year old and a 20 year old are both successful big leaguers, i think its a safe assumption the 19 year old is the better talent/higher upside, though admittedly you’re splitting hairs.
Calling each a “successful big leaguer” is misleading. Trout leads Harper in WAR 2.4 to 0.8 (the same WAR Trout got at age 19 in a similar number of PAs). Thus far, Trout has taken a huge step forward in 2012 and is projected by Zips to have a 5.0 WAR season. Harper is projected under 2.0 WAR.
Assuming this exercise does not included this year, we’re still talking about Trout being developmentally ahead of Harper going forward (ZIPS has Trout with an over 3 WAR cushion for 2012 on Harper – is there any chance Harper will project higher for 2013 than Trout?).
If you want to pick Harper because you believe he projects to improve more than Trout, that’s fine. But the age argument makes no sense, nor does ignoring the success Trout has achieved at the MLB level that Harper has not.
i wasnt directly comparing the 2. maybe my wording was misleading. im saying assuming a 19 and 20 year old are producing equally at the mlb level (not saying trout and harper are), then its safe to assume the 19 year old is the better prospect. the comment wasnt supposed to be specific to them. certainly, RIGHT NOW, trout is more productive.
This is directed at TKDC. You’re an idiot. Trout’s WAR is laughable if you look at the underlying components. Harper has a higher walk rate, lower strikeout rate, higher line drive rate and higher ISO. Trout has been incredibly lucky as evidenced by his .383 BABIP. And don’t even get me started on the fielding component. Defensive metrics are a joke and have no place in WAR.
Yes, Mrs. Harper, Babip and uzr should be regressed, everything 19-year-old Harper is doing much better than his AA and AAA numbers is true talent.
Quick Game:
Who is Player A and B
Player A:
.307/.341/.432 10 HR 3.4 fWAR
Player B:
.304/.343/.442 11 HR 3.2 fWAR
SPOILERS:
Player A is 2011 Starlin Castro
Player B is 2007 Freddy Sanchez
I don’t really get the hype here.
I am not a big Castro supporter, but comparing Starlin’s age 21 season to Sanchez’s age 29 season is a bit silly.
Yeah it is kind of hyperbolic I’ll admit, but the only real thing that Castro can add is a bit more power, which we haven’t seen. I think Castro will be better than Freddy Sanchez, but to be taken at 16 seems unnecessarily high.
Wait, KIND OF hyperbolic? When Freddy Sanchez was 21 he was playing for Dallas Baptist University. Starlin Castro was playing every day in the Major Leagues, and it wasn’t even his first season doing so.
Commenter A: Grossly uninformed.
Commenter B: Handsome and cool.
GUESS WHICH ONE YOU ARE?
you have a relationship with rationalsportsfan that the rest of us commenters arent aware of?
not that theres anything wrong with that…
re: Kershaw. See Tim Lincecum.
Why? Completely different pitchers in every way.
I believe that he meant pitchers are extremely risky. Lincecum, who most would agree last year was a good pick, has completely fallen off this list (rightly so).
Exactly. Lincecum wins back to back Cy Youngs and is clearly one of the elite of all elite pitchers. And now? He’s not looking so great. Maybe he’ll turn it around (as a Giants fan, I hope so) but young arms flame out far too often.
What rationale could explain Hosmer over Heyward?
Same age, both struggled at times, Heyward the bigger prospect, the more athletic guy, the guy with more success, and the guy who has been (partially by default) the much better player this year.
Both guys look a bit messed up with their swings, but Heyward has the patience that will make him an all-star if he just improves a little on contact and/or power.
Heyward also plays the much more difficult defensive position.
“much more difficult”…?
I wouldn’t say much more difficult but Heyward is basically a much younger Matt Kemp defensively, only playing RF. check out the UZR and UZR/150 at RF since 2010, Heyward is 3rd and 1st. If you watch them everyday, you see this too. Not a mirage.
Looks like Mark Appel fell in this draft too.
ahaha
Given the nature of the exercise, I think it’s interesting to compare this years and last years. This comparison makes Carson Cistulli look extraordinary.
I don’t get the Jay Bruce pick. Sure, he is a young outfielder with good potential, but his excellent 2010 season was fueled by a very good fielding season, and perhaps an inflated BABIP. I would have definitely taken Matt Wieters, probably Posey, Adam Jones and Heyward, and possibly Austin Jackson and Dexter Fowler over him, who are all similar ages with the same or better potential. I could see him being picked, but I think 15 is early.
Fowler?
Maybe not Fowler, but it’s closer than you might think. Fowler’s projected by zips for more WAR this year, has better K/BB numbers, better career BABIP numbers (I think sustainable), more speed. Obviously, he has less power, but it’s improved this year and might continue to improve. Fangraphs also has his fielding as slightly worse, but considering he plays center and Bruce plays right, I think it’s more or less even there. Bruce is about a year younger. It’s all up to what you project those numbers to be going forward. I recall Fowler being pretty hyped coming up as well.
You mean the CF with a .950 OPS post stance change last year, and a .980OPS this year?
It really doesn’t matter if Fowler has adjusted his swing and is a stronger player now. He is still a ridiculous choice to build a franchise around. Just look at his home/road splits. He greatly benefits from Coors.
Yeah, Bruce was the one pick that really puzzled me.
He’s definitely a great complementary piece to have, but as a guy to build around? I don’t know. There have got to be 30 other guys I’d rather start with.
I don’t understand picking any of the older players, those who will be in their late 30′s at the end of 10 years. Whether the first 5 years or the second 5 years is more important is irrelevant; if I could have player for 10 years, I’d want him to be good for all 10.
Choosing a player who’s in his early 20′s is the best choice.
Not saying I necessarily disagree with you, but the 5 great years you get NOW from an older guy have a higher probability of occurring than the 5 great years you get LATER from a younger guy. That has to be given some weight.
There’s also a rationale that includes being able to trade that great player, no? In general I agree with Baltar, but depending on how one construes the situation, the idea of picking an older, established player can make more sense I guess…
it depends… are you able to trade? if so, yes, the younger guys should all (in general) be drafted ahead of the older guys. but you’re almost guaranteed at least 5 great years of production with a guy like votto, whereas machado? dude was taken at 22, and struggled at high A last year and is struggling at AA this year. don’t even get me started on the hilarious arenado pick at 30.
id rather have 5 excellent years of votto/cano type players and 5 years of decline than rolling the dice on all 10.
It would be cool to do one of these for 5 or more rounds. I know that would take more time, but it would be interesting to see how each team builds its group of core players–how much emphasis is on risk, age, positional scarcity, etc.
To me, the first 30 players aren’t super interesting, because they are fairly obvious. It’s the next 100 or so who really make this exercise meaningful and unique.
Didn’t see this when I posted below. In that case:
+1
Definitely. I 2nd this sentiment. I also think it would help to explain some of these picks.
On another thought, how awesome would that be if MLB decided to do this in 10 years or something? I’m not saying it’s going to happen, but what an awesome way to level the playing field. Restart the league with a franchise draft and a salary cap and see what happens. Then we’d really have an idea of who’s running the best front office in the game.
Agreed, I want to see what the strategy is for the later rounds.
Has anyone considered continuing this with Round 2, 3, etc?
I’d like to see this evaluated by WAR in 10 years. It would be very interesting, and I would certainly suspect those who picked minor leaguers would generally do much worse. Of course, cumulative WAR might not be the best measure. Is it better to have a player who accumulates all his WAR in the first 5 years, his last 5 years, or one who accumulates the same amount over 10 years?
Pujols got a 10 year contract for 240 million. If these minor leaguers where made free agents and teams could only sign them to a 10 year contract would any one get more then Pujols. I doubt it.
a comment like this is an indictment on your understanding of the exercise more than anything else.
I thought I’d see Kinsler here, although I suppose he’s only good for 125 games.
Would it be correct to say that a context neutral drafter in this exercise would be attempting to pick the player remaining that offered the highest expected net present value (in terms of wins)?
I didn’t read all the comments, but I want to make sure Josh Hamilton is mentioned on this post. So here: Josh Hamilton, I did it. Third in WAR since 2010 (including missed time of course), great hair, just turned 30, can play a premium defensive position, enjoys killing baseballs.
It is pretty simple to project injuries for him and discount him accordingly, but even if he simply keeps getting injured at and performing at the same rate, he will continue to be one of the most valuable players in baseball. WAR accounts for this very well.
I would have taken him over at least 10 players on the list. I think he is very high on the list of players most likely to accumulate 15 WAR over the next three seasons. Even though it is a simple and blunt metric, I would leverage that when drafting (along with believing that the player can be very productive in years 4 – 8, based on a simple analysis I like to call “Will he be younger than 35 in 3 years?”).
I think you answered your own question, mostly–
He just turned 30. Has had trouble staying healthy. Has other off-field issues that would factor into the decision also (although to what extent is open to debate).
I bet in five years it’ll look like Ackley could’ve easily made this list.
some surprising nubs: david wright, freddie freeman, ackley, hamilton, ellsbury, bautista, matt moore, jesus montero (because he actually seems to be playing defense), carlos santana, kinsler, ryan zimmerman, granderson (the new power is for real, and he isn’t that old), hanley ramirez, adrian gonzalez, david price, james shields, jered weaver, cole hamels, zach greinke, bumgarner, and probably more i haven’t thought of.
obviously, not everyone can be picked, but i feel like i would have taken a bunch of these over profar, machado, arenando or even starlin castro…
I could see it with some of those guys (Santana particularly) but I think a lot of them you’d just be rewarding for past performance without taking adequate account of how much they’re likely to produce in the next ten years. Also, we all know there are strong arguments for not taking a pitcher in this kind of exercise – injuries are just so common and unforeseeable.
Why do you need ESPN’s permission to do this?
well done guys. now do rounds 2-10 in snake order plskthx.
I hope you’re planning to look back at these lists (this year and last) and the comments in 5 years and see how it turned out. Some of the picks and comments are going to look outright silly, not to mentioned how it will look in 9-10 years.
I think some of the pickers and many of the commenters don’t give enough consideration to age. Drafting someone who’s 28 you’re already on (or very close) to the downside of his career. Yes you may get 5 great years, but after that you may be looking at a good hitter who’s a DH or poor 1B. Tulo is an obvious exception as he might even stick at SS.
Wow. I hit cntrl-F, type in “Chapman”, hit enter, and get no results, even in the comments? I know that’s high risk, but still.
I get a result for “Chapman” – perhaps it’s a browser issue at your end?
Was your result Brian’s post?
am i the only one that thinks quality young pitching is a market inefficiency in this whole thing? david price is young, durable and dominant. bumgarner is young durable and dominant. id certainly rather start a team with those 2 guys than some promising minor leaguers or jay bruce. even hamels in his late 20s.
I’m with you. You can never have enough young starting pitching. If this was a serpentine draft and I have a late 1st round pick I would definitely think about taking 2 young aces.
Taking Arenado over Zimmermann, Wright, Hanley, or even Sandoval makes little sense
or price, or bumgarner, or austin jackson, or adam jones, or kinsler..
Nice work on the Heyward pick, Eno. I actually gasped that he was still there given the premise of the draft.
I seriously can’t believe Nolan Arenado was taken over Ellsbury, Price, or Kinsler. Even though it has obviously been mentioned, I don’t think the absurdity of that pick has sunk in for people. It’s along the lines of the Samardzjia pick in my opinion. Not only would I take all the aforementioned guys over Arenado, but probably also Kipnis, Altuve, Akex Gordon, Santana, Reyes, McCann, Matt Moore, Cole Hamels, and a number of other good but not great guys that would likely populate rounds 2-3.
Seriously? You’re starting your franchise with Nolan Arenado over Ellsbury, Hamels, Greinke, or Wright.
How has no one addressed the fun fact that the 2011 picks made in this same exercise one year ago that were selected at #4, 6, 7, 8, 13, 16, 22, 23, 26, 29 and 30 failed to make this year’s list? Oh, I know, because doing something like this is really, really tough. And Fangraph’s commenters are only capable of reflecting on small sample sizes and pumping the players they drafted in their ottoneu leagues as the obvious future beasts.
My apologies to Jesse, who earlier made this same point with far more subtlety and aplomb.
I think that would make an interesting article if nothing else.
I would say that in defense of last years drafters, the selections should change a decent amount. With Jose Bautista for instance, last year you correctly would have said that you are getting one more year of his prime and one less bad year on the tail end of his career. Jose Bautista complied by having a great year, but should still be discounted for being one year older and having one less year of his prime. Obviously, we have another years worth of data that we ought to consider. (As an aside, I do value near term wins more than the drafter apparently and think Jose Bautista’s selection this year would have been easily justified.)
I personally would have taken Jamie Moyer
I think Yu Darvish considers some late round consideration.
What does he consider it?
There are several picks I wouldn’t take the chance on compared to other players available, but I understand the reasoning… Arenado, Profar, Hosmer, Lawrie, Moustakas, Machado, and Starlin Castro. To each their own.
But Dustin Pedroia over the below names makes zero sense to me. He turns 29 in 2 months, relies on speed which will decline, and doesn’t have much pop. Since when is 2nd base a premium position? I would have said 2B falls behind C, SS, 3B, CF and possibly RF on the premium position pecking order — placing it ahead of only LF and 1B.
Verlander, Matt Moore, Jesus Montero, Granderson, Adam Jones, Fielder
Is anyone else just as stunned by this?
I am going to go ahead and say that a lot of commenters interpreted this differently than it was set up. People are expressing the sentiment that “Wow, you are going to see how bad that player is in 5 years and think that pick was foolish.” As Dave and many of the commenters pointed out, wins now are actually more valuable and easier to project (less subject to variance). In short, if you get (or think you can get) 25 – 30 WAR out of an older player in the next 5 or 6 years, and then they are totally useless, they are certainly worth a top 30 pick in this draft.
That is why the Arenado pick is absurd. Profar is probably the only prospect that should have been selected. It’s interesting that no one took Bundy. It would have been the most obvious lightning rod selection.
Wow! There are a lot of prospect happy drafters in this excercise. You try to make a point about that a 28 year old veteran will be declining but you completely miss just how risky prospects are. You are guaranteeing yourself more years but there’s a good chance that you get more mediocre years.
I’ll take 5 almost elite years over the hope that someone can be a very good player for a long time. Baseball is littered with players that never came close to living up to their elite prospect status.
Just saw this now. Its interesting that in last year’s draft, the “prospect-y” type picks look awesome now (Trout at #3 which was lambasted by everyone at the time mostly), Harper and even Strasburg to a degree.
Also the most lauded pick last year was Lincecum at #29. Pitchers are just so fragile and volatile. Would anyone be too surprised if King Felix was a slightly above average pitcher from here on out? I wouldn’t be terribly shocked if it happened.