2012 Organizational Rankings: #9 – Toronto

Read the methodology behind the ratings here. Remember that the grading scale is 20-80, with 50 representing league average.

#30 – Baltimore
#29 – Houston
#28 – Oakland
#27 – Pittsburgh
#26 – San Diego
#25 – Minnesota
#24 – Chicago AL
#23 – Seattle
#22 – Kansas City
#21 – Cleveland
#20 – New York Mets
#19 – Los Angeles Dodgers
#18 – Colorado
#17 — Miami
#16 — Diamondbacks
#15 — Cincinnati
#14 — Cubs
#13 — Milwaukee
#12 — San Francisco
#11 — Washington

#10 — Tampa Bay

Toronto’s 2011 Ranking: 8th

2012 Outlook: 52 (15th)

Playing in the American League East division has its pluses and its minuses. The main plus is the strong competition. The key minus is… the strong competition. Both the Toronto Blue Jays and the Tampa Bay Rays organizations stand to benefit from the new playoff format, which includes an additional wild card slot. The wild card winner has resided in the AL East every year since 2003 with the exception of 2006.

Although Toronto was rumored to have been involved in the chase for every young pitcher on the trading block this past off-season – such as Gio Gonzalez and Mat Latos – the club made very few (significant) changes to the 25-man roster, outside of the bullpen which added Sergio Santos, Francisco Cordero, Darren Oliver and Jason Frasor.

The lineup will look virtually the same in 2012 and the club will hope for a bounce-back years from first baseman Adam Lind and second baseman Kelly Johnson, as well as continued developments from sophomores including catcher J.P. Arencibia and left-fielder Eric Thames. The starting rotation has some question marks as Brett Cecil will look to rediscover his missing velocity or further learn to pitch without it. The highly-touted young hurler Kyle Drabek will look to make the necessary adjustments after getting hitting around during his rookie campaign. Improvements to the lower two-fifths of the rotation are essential if the club hopes to compete for one of the two American League wild cards.

2013+ Outlook: 60 (5th, tied)

Fans may be frustrated with the current direction of the organization, but Toronto has one of the brightest futures in the game. I recently ranked Toronto’s farm system as the second best in the game, sandwiched between San Diego and Tampa Bay. The organization has incredible depth in the system, including power arms and up-the-middle talents.

The organization will, unfortunately, have to make some adjustments to its . The new financial restraints added to amateur talent acquisitions – both through the draft and through the international market – will impact the organization immensely as it had one of the largest budgets in both areas. Toronto went for the gusto last year with a number of big name international signings that included Roberto Osuna, Dawel Lugo, Wuilmer Becerra, and Jesus Gonzalez.

The 2011 amateur draft held some drama for the Jays when it was unable to come to terms with top pick Tyler Beede, who instead followed through on his commitment to Vanderbilt University (where he’s struggled). Despite that hiccup, the organization still gave out 14 bonuses of $250,000 or more and finished with one of the highest overall draft budgets. Some scouts felt prep left-hander Daniel Norris, signed for $2 million as the 74th overall pick, was a more desirable prospect than Beede.

My recent Top 100 prospects list at FanGraphs included seven Toronto farmhands: Anthony Gose, Travis d’Arnaud, Norris, Drew Hutchison, Justin Nicolino, Noah Syndergaard, and Jake Marisnick.

Financial Resources: 50 (14th, tied)

The Toronto Blue Jays are owned by Rogers Communications, one of the largest telecommunications companies in Canada. Rogers purchased the Blue Jays in 2000 (for $137 million) and also bought the retractable-domed stadium in 2004 – previously known as the SkyDome – and renamed it The Rogers Centre. Rogers also now owns a 24-7 sports television station known as Rogers SportsNet (which has now branched out to a variety of stations known as SportsNet East, West, etc), as well as a radio network known as The FAN590. All 162 games can now be found on SportsNet TV and The FAN590 radio, giving Rogers complete control of Jays’ television and radio exploits. According to Forbes, the television rights fee paid to the Jays from SportsNet (both owned by Rogers) doubled in price in 2011.

According to Forbes Magazine, the Blue Jays are currently valued at $413 million, 25th out of the 30 Major League Baseball teams but up almost $80 million over the ’10 estimate. The Jays’ estimated revenue sits at $188 million, up from $163 million in the previous year. With no other direct competition – and the entire country at its finger tips – as well as one of the lowest payrolls in baseball, the Jays organization should be flush with cash if/when the organization serious about competing for the playoffs. During the organization’s heyday in the early 1990s, Toronto had the largest payroll in all of Major League Baseball.

Baseball Operations: 64 (2nd, tied)

First-time General Manager Alex Anthopoulos is now entering his third full season after taking over from previous GM J.P. Ricciardi in October of 2009. A fairly new face to the baseball front office, although he apprenticed under Ricciardi as an assistant-GM, Anthopoulos has surrounded himself with intelligent baseball people such as Jay Sartori and Dana Brown. Vice President of Baseball Operations and Assistant-GM Tony LaCava is widely considered a surefire future general manager and he actually turned down the opportunity to take that role with the Baltimore Orioles this past off-season. Former general managers Jim Beattie and Ed Lynch were hired as MLB scouts.

Speaking of the scouting department, Toronto has beefed up its scouting ranks in recent years and now boasts the largest department in baseball. The organization did suffer one big blow, though, when Director of Latin American Operations Marco Paddy left the organization to oversee a similar role with the Chicago White Sox. Paddy was responsible for overseeing many of Toronto’s big-ticket Latin America acquisitions. Toronto brought in Ismael Cruz, formerly of the New York Mets, to fill the role. Another former general manager, Chuck LaMar, was brought in as Special Assistant to Amateur Scouting. Along with the strong scouting department, Toronto also utilizes a video scouting department and employs statistical analysts such as Joe Sheehan, formerly of the website BaseballAnalysts.com.

Overall: 54 (9th)

The Toronto Blue Jays organization has most of the pieces necessary to not only field a playoff-caliber team but to also build a dynasty if it plays its cards well. The minor league system is strong and should be able to sustain a steady stream of talent, although the new restraints on acquiring amateur talent will offer a challenge to the club. The organization also has stable ownership and, theoretically, the money necessary to acquire some star talent to supplement those currently on the 25-man roster.




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Marc Hulet has been writing at FanGraphs since 2008. His work focuses on prospect analysis. Follow him on Twitter @marchulet.

87 Responses to “2012 Organizational Rankings: #9 – Toronto”

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  1. Danny says:

    I just hope Rogers is willing to shell out the big bucks once its clear the Jays are just a couple pieces away from being serious contenders (hopefully 1-2 years down the road).

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    • L.UZR says:

      Dynasty, yes. Toronto has had the best Canadian baseball team for the last 10 years or so.

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    • legaryd says:

      Honestly I hope they just extend the players they have. The last time Toronto was in a position to win with young players like Alex Rios, Roy Halladay, Vernon Wells and Eric Hinske they nuked themselves by blowing all their cash on free agents like AJ Burnett and BJ Ryan.

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      • Gabriel says:

        Or maybe they gave big contracts to Rios and Wells instead of Halladay?

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      • Paul Gill says:

        Uh what are you talking about? Hinske had his arb years bought out after he won rookie of the year. He then proceeded to suck and was given away after he lost his position to the newly acquired Troy Glaus.

        Halladay, Rios and Wells all signed long term contracts and all were signed well past their arbitration years. Halladays contract ended up being one of the best in baseball. Wells and Rios well not so much.

        Burnett was also well worth his contract and the compensation picks they got for him when he signed with the Yankees ended up being Marisnick and Syndergaard. Both are top 10 prospects in the Blue Jays system and are two of the highest upside players in a deep system full of high upside toolsy hitters and power pitchers.

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  2. some guy says:

    Dynasty, really? Lets pump the breaks just a little.

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  3. Baron Samedi says:

    DYNASTYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY

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  4. SC2GG says:

    Brett Cecil will be rediscovering his velocity by hanging his head out of the window of the team bus as it travels from New Hampshire to Pawtucket. Given the wealth of other choices, it’s fair to say we may not see him again in a Jays uniform.

    Also, if you’re mentioning players who need a bit of a bounceback, Colby Rasmus is the poster child for bouncebacks.

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    • mudie says:

      New Hampshire and Pawtucket play in different leagues and levels, EL(AA) and IL(AAA) respectively.

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    • Bad Bill says:

      It was telling, I think, that Raz’ name never appeared in this article.

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    • JayTeam says:

      Check his splits last year. Jays will try to tinker with his mechanics to regain his fastball so he can remain a starter, but if not, there may be Blue Jay LOOGYness in his future

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  5. j-martin says:

    The supposed challenges with respect to new rules on amateur spending only put them back on par with everyone. Or more accurately, all teams are still on the same playing field but the field has changed.

    Every team must find an advantage given the rules. The strategy used by the Jays in the past couple years may be nullified by new rules that doesn’t put them in any worse place than anyone else.

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    • SC2GG says:

      On par with everyone else, just like how the rules make it so the Yankees and Red Sox are on par with everyone else, right?

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    • soupman says:

      the yankees have cachet around the world. that’s something money can’t buy anymore. kids around the world don’t grow up rooting for the jays.

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    • Helshenchman says:

      The reason it offers more of a challenge to the Jays, or the Rays for example, is because the “lesser” budget teams, and especially AA, used to thrive on the supplemental picks provided as compensation when they could no longer afford their home grown talent. Clubs like the yanks and sox don’t care about supplemental picks because they sign not only their best players but everyone elses too, therefore it actually benefits the big spenders.

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    • Derek Maisonville says:

      Like Anatole France said, “How noble the law, in its majestic equality, that punishes equally both rich and poor alike for the crimes of stealing bread, begging in the streets, and sleeping under bridges.” Status quo practices serve those with status in MLB no less than in reality. Equality in theory means little with unequal starting places.

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      • ccoop says:

        stow the equality patter for the dream world. baseball is a gov’t sanctioned monopoly where all teams benefit from having good teams in the largest markets.

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  6. sprot says:

    A DYNASTY?

    Get out of here. Lets see them finish higher than 4th place for at least one year.

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    • Well-Beered Englishman says:

      Kinda summarizes the reaction to the Nationals’ write-up, too. And both have of late been the “other other team” in their division, too.

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    • Angels says:

      Jealous? If you understood the artcile, the Blue Jays have a very good farm system and young and good present core, which makes up for a very good future to contedn for a world series if everything falls into place…They are going in the right direction under a recently new management. If they were not in the AL East, they could have been in the playoffs as what other teams in other divisions have the luxury of

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      • sprot says:

        No reason to be jealous of a team that hasnt finished higher than 4th place in 4 years.

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      • j-Martin says:

        To be fair, they are finishing 4th with a winning record while playing against the Yankees, redsox and rays 18 times a piece.

        4th is an ordinal ranking that doesn’t quite do the jays justice.

        I find all this moot. If the point is to get the playoffs and lose to a team from the AL east then I guess I can complain about the division. If the point is to win the world series then I would rather come into the playoffs battle tested from the AL east and have a serious chance of winning it all.

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      • cable fixer says:

        ^you had me until the “battle tested” claim. teams from the AL East do well because they outspend or outthink (sometimes both) the competition. playoff performance has little to do with strength of schedule, or the NL would not likely have won 3 of the last 4 world series.

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    • Farmteam says:

      Easy there, I know being a fan of an AL Central, AL West, NL Central, or NL West team isn’t easy.

      There is no denying that the AL and NL East are both, by far, the best divisions in their respective leagues.

      And it’s not like the 4th place Jays are performing poorly… <.500 in this division is much better than:

      4th place Royals – 71-91
      4th place Mariners – 67-95
      4th place Mets – 77-85
      4th place Pirates – 72-90
      4th place Rockies – 73-89

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    • Matt says:

      Please let us all know when your team won back to back World Series?

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  7. This Guy says:

    Gotta admit, even as a Braves fan, I was surprised to see ATL above Toronto

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  8. some guy says:

    Toronto and the Nats are the two most overhyped teams this off-season by far.

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    • termain says:

      Look, these are organizational rankings, not 2012 single season projections.

      They include a 2012 single season ranking: the Jays are ranked 15th, making them a median team. It wouldn’t be insane to view that as “the Jays will win about half their games in 2012.” It’s hard to see see how that’s “overhyped”.

      And oh, look, the Nationals are tied for the Jays in the 2012 ranking. And it looks like the Vegas odds have both teams at about 81 wins. So who, exactly, is overhyping the Nationals and the Jays?

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      • Kyle K. says:

        Probably the people who say (or agree) that the Jays have “most of the pieces necessary” to “build a dynasty if [they] play their cards right.” In the sense that they have many of the world’s 500 best baseball players, yes. Which unfortunately gives every team in the league except the Astros “most of the pieces necessary” to stumble into a dynasty if everything breaks right. Personally, I’ll be blown away if they even win 3 division titles in the next 10 years. Which is think would be the absolute most comically low threshold for “dynasty” you could ever have. And they still probably won’t get there.

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      • CircleChange11 says:

        I’ll be blown away if they win a single division title.

        They have to pass two of NYY, BOS, and TB, which is no small feat.

        Seriously, winning this division is a very big deal.

        I also get fatigued of the commentary along the lines of “if things go right”. That just sounds to “CUBsy to me” and can be applied to far too many teams to be useful for anything.

        It’s very possible that TOR is both a top 10 organization AND a 4th place team in the AL East.

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  9. keyser soze says:

    Great comments Marc, can’t argue with any of it except for perhaps the financial resources ranking. I would have thought ownership by Rogers would put the Jays in at least the top 10 in that area. Although the current payroll is not very high, that is largely a result of choice and excellent management decisions such as value contracts for Bautista and Romero at well below market rates and trades for young cost-controlled players like Lawrie and Rasmus. The door is open for much higher payroll in future when the opportunity comes to acquire a key piece or two.

    The back of the rotation is clearly the largest question mark for the Jays this season. The same can also be said for the Red Sox and even the Yankees. Could the Red Sox be this year’s #6? Just about every key player has question marks related to potential for injury or uncertain performance expectations. A lot has to go right and much could go wrong (already starting to really), and there isn’t much depth.

    Thanks for an enjoyable read.

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  10. Psst says:

    their lineup by 2013/14 is evil

    C D’Arnaud/JPA/Jimenez/Perez/Nessy odd are good they get 3-4WAR here
    1B Lind could be upgraded but still a decent hitter 1.5-3WAR

    2B Escobar/Johnson Assuming a Hech breakout at SS 3-5WAR if not KJ had a .377wOBA and 5.9 WAR in 2010

    3B Lawrie could be a legit 26yo star by then 5-8WAR

    SS Hech/Escobar if he can hit at all Hech is a 3-5WAR SS if Escobar is still SS he is a 4 WAR SS signed for 5 mil per

    RF Marisnick 3-7 WAR has huge power/speed upside with great D
    CF Gose 2-5 WAR think Drew Stubbs with more Speed
    LF Rasmus 2-6 WAR those other two are legit enough to push Rasmus to LF had a .366wOBA and 4.3WAR in 2010

    DH/3B/RF Bautista 3-6 WAR .440 wOBA hitters are rare, ones locked into a 5/65 are rarer

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    • Big Jgke says:

      By the time Gose and Marisnick are ready Bautista will be the full-time 1B. I’m actually kind of bummed they don’t just put him there this year and roll the dice with an OF of Thames/Rasmus/Snider and a DH platoon of Lind/Encarnacion.

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    • Adam Lind says:

      OMG For the love of all that is good in this world, I hope that if Adam Lind is still our everyday first baseman by 2013/2014 then that means that he’s regained 2009 form.

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    • CircleChange11 says:

      Awesome. TOR has guys that are better than league average at every position, with 7 of the 9 positions being possibly near all-star performers. Yeah, it’ll happen.

      Let’s ask Cub fans what their lineup will look like in 2014 and see what they come up with.

      The Blue jays will win 100 games in 2014, but lose in the playoffs to the 108 win KC Royals. *Shrugs*

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  11. Gort says:

    Oh god…
    ??O9#

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  12. Kyle says:

    I’m not sure how much the new rules will actually hamper Toronto. Scouting is going to be the most important factor with the new system, and as the article said, Toronto has the best in the business.

    As opposed to drafting the kid out of the LA area and offering him above slot in the late rounds, you have to find the kid playing in the second division school in a lower population area who is flashing tools but hasn’t be nationally exposed due to his level of competition.

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    • TtD says:

      The Syndergaard type you mean. I think it puts the Jays internationally a little behind teams like the Rockies who dominate one area of the world scouting-wise, but I think the reputation of the Jays in the Caribbean and Central America is still pretty good (though nowhere near their heyday in the late 80s). When money is going to be pretty similar between the teams, it’s going to be those who have the biggest lock on the hearts of the populace that will get the signings.

      Will be curious if the loyalties remain, or whether the allure of the big teams gets stronger with less cash floating around.

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  13. Bret Lawrie says:

    I also play for this baseball team.

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  14. Yunel says:

    Me too, I guess.

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  15. TK says:

    I’m surprised at the low level of bitching considering all the earlier comments guaranteeing Toronto in the top-6.

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  16. AL Eastbound says:

    Unfortunately the division is what it is and will always be an impediment to success.

    Ninth is fair though I would quibble with the low ownership rank. Rogers is one of the largest companies in the world with profits higher than “Yankees” revenues.

    Though I agree the prospect hype has gotten the better of me as well!

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    • Big Jgke says:

      This talk of Rogers profits is something you hear in Toronto all the time and its a total straw man argument. The Yankees profits are entirely because of, in service of, the baseball team. Rogers’ profits are in service of a massive publicly traded corporation of which the Blue Jays are a barely profitable niche, not the reason for its existence. Sure it means that Rogers theoretically has tonnes of money to spend, but this isn’t Mike Ilitch, it’s a corporation that will not be throwing money away when it can’t justify the return to shareholders.

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      • Admiral Whiskers says:

        This. If the board of Rogers Communications invests more money into the Blue Jays than gets returned, the directors would be breaching their fiduciary duties to the shareholders. A revenue stream of $188 million cannot support a large payroll, especially when other operating costs are taken into consideration.

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      • soupman says:

        heres what i think: rogers understands that the jays have carved out a nice niche as a 3rd place team which is mutually beneficial to them and the red sox and yankees (whose fans that they draw when they are in town). if they somehow can win – bonus! – but it will be more because a bunch of prospects figure it out, not because rogers risked any money.

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      • John says:

        I wouldn’t call it a straw man at all.

        The bottom line is that there is money at Rogers, which COULD be used to support the Jays. It’s a complete mystery to anyone beyond the top execs at Rogers what the parameters are surrounding the Jays moving to a top-tier payroll, or even higher up in the mid-tier. There is no doubt they won’t throw money away, but to discount the financial resources is flawed as well.

        I’m going to guarantee that the revenue number thrown out by Forbes doesn’t equate to the revenue / cash flow made by Rogers off the Jays as a whole (including content value to RSN).

        I think Rogers has been weary after getting burned by AA’s moronic predecessor, but won’t hesitate on opening the vault once he’s proven his strategy can work. The return on a playoff team drawing 3 million fans and close to 1 million tv viewers (if you non-Toronto folk think that’s insane, look at the ratings for the Jays this past season) would surely justify a $100-$150 million payroll, not even including the intangible value to Rogers of boosting its perception in the public eye (where it really suffers in Toronto right now – although helping the Jays win the world series won’t really make up for customers feeling gouged, but it would help)

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      • test says:

        The big issue I see coming up is the amount that Rogers pays itself for the TV rights. Jays broadcasts get huge ratings compared to other MLB teams, and they would be in line for one of those massive billion dollar TV rights deals if they weren’t selling to themselves. Being a multi-billion dollar corporation, Rogers is likely to play games with this sort of thing to minimize team revenues to the benefit of the the cable network costs (it’s better for them if the TV channels appear profitable, rather than the baseball team).

        When one massive omni-corp owns the team, the stadium, the cable network it’s being broadcast on, sells cable/internet/phone to half the people in the country, etc…it’s hard to gauge how much revenue comes the baseball team. Rogers Sportsnet is terrible most of the time, the Jays broadcasts are about the only reason to watch. There’s also a weird relationship with TSN, the other sports cable channel (increasingly it’s ESPN Canada). They share rights to some things, and don’t really compete as much as they seem to have agreed to share. TSN is mostly owned by the other media omni-corp in Canada (Bell), who also have access to one of the networks (CTV), so I’d love to them put in a crazy bid for the TV rights. But it seems unlikely…

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  17. greenfrog says:

    The Jays could have helped their own cause by bidding aggressively for Darvish (who fit the team’s youth movement, needs and contention window perfectly, and who would have cost only cash, not prospects or draft picks). The future is bright but some of the low-hanging fruit (acquiring prospects for Halladay and Marcum, exploiting inefficiencies in the draft and IFA, the “found money” in Bautista, Romero and Alvarez) is now gone. Gotta take advantage where you can.

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    • Dainer's Hubris says:

      I wonder if the timing of Yu’s posting was a factor – Rogers and Bell split 80% of the Leafs/Raps/TFC for 1.3 billion on December 8th. Can’t have been a good time to submit a winning bid.

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  18. everdiso says:

    In terms of the 2012 outlook, while the lineup may be similar to what theu ended last year with, it is much different than what they played the majority of the srason with.

    namely, as opposed to the start of last year, this year they’re starting with lawrie, rasmus, thames, johnson instead of nix, patterson, rivera, and hill….which is a rather huge upgrade, really.

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  19. Colin says:

    Beede has had consecutive awesome outings vs Georgia and South Carolina since starting slow for Vanderbilt. Kid is going to be soooo nasty.

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    • Mike D says:

      hopefully for his sake he is NASTY cause he’s going to have to be a top 7 pick to equal the contract the Jays offered him which was well above the other HS pitchers considered in his category signed for in that draft. Not to mention he is taking on 3 years of injury risk and the value of the money diminishes.

      but good luck to him.

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  20. Sandy Kazmir says:

    They’re certainly better than the Rays, both now and in the future

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  21. Franco says:

    Dynasty might be too strong a word in the AL East. But we should all point and laugh at the Orioles.

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  22. O. Dotel says:

    Toronto was the 5th best team I’ve ever played for.

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  23. Jaydan says:

    People are taking the “dynasty” comment out of context. You conveniently leave out the “if it plays its cards well” part that follows it

    Reading is good, guys

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    • Kyle K. says:

      Half the teams in the league have the ability to build a dynasty if they play their cards well and everything breaks right (i.e., any team with multiple under-30 guys with tools that could make them superstars and/or a top 10 farm system). If that’s what Hulet meant, it’s non-analysis tied to a flashy word. If he actually meant that he thinks they’re significantly closer to building a dynasty than almost all other teams, then it’s silly hyperbole. Pick one.

      Snark only works when you have a good argument with which to back it up, guy

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      • Ringo says:

        The “cards” have already been dealt. Thats what you fail to understand. You are too focused on one small, general statement of the entire article. Its like you are obsessed with losing at the poker table and taking everyone down with you. Most of your comments are hybole anyways. Your contrarian views are welcome but based on a caveat that only you seem to support. A general rule would be “Any team can have a dynasty if they play their cards well and things break right” yet for some reason that rule does not apply to the Blue Jays. It is kind of stunning really. Just being objective here the Blue Jays have a better chance of building and sustaining a dynasty than a majority of the league. Most of the AL East teams do. How they do that is completely different but, to use another type of crappy reference you seem to enjoy, Blue Jay stock is on the rise. Just read the rest of the article without those 15 words, maybe you can then make a baseball related argument, not on opinion based one.

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      • Kyle K. says:

        And see, it’s the fanboy perspective you’re advancing that makes me show up and express my contrarian opinions. I fully understand that the cards have been dealt. Here’s what they are for the Jays- a potentially great lineup, if lots of stuff breaks right (Rasmus gets fixed, Lind gets fixed, Lawrie develops as hoped, Johnson gets fixed, the OF prospects develop as hoped). How many teams have a similar outlook from their lineup/future lineup? Probably half the teams in the league. Meanwhile, where is the pitching? I know their staff is decent, Morrow and Romero are good building blocks (Morrow when he’s on anyways) but everyone else slated for the rotation now and/or in 2015 is no better than a question mark from the perspective of “can this guy help turn the Jays into a DYNASTY.”

        You complain about me (and others) focusing on Hulet’s use of that word but we have a legitimate complaint. Most of the FG fanboys think AA is Jesus Christ come back to Earth (he’s the new Jack Z!) and that titles are imminent, and that’s exactly what I’m complaining about. From my perspective that’s ridiculous.

        “Just being objective here the Blue Jays have a better chance of building and sustaining a dynasty than a majority of the league.”

        Don’t say things like that, you’re not being objective. You’re being subjective, as am I. I will grant that the Yankees and BoSox are always closer to “dynastic” than nearly all other teams in the league because of their resources (not to mention many elite building blocks, in each team’s case). Beyond that, looking at the current “dynasty probability” of the rest of the league, I think you can divide it into two groups: those that sort of have a chance at one and those that don’t, not in the next 5ish years anyways. The Jays are in the first group no doubt. But I’d love to hear your argument as to why they’re significantly closer to reaching that elite level than any of the following teams:

        Philly
        Washington
        Atlanta
        Miami
        St. Louis
        Cincinnati
        San Francisco
        Colorado
        Arizona
        Tampa
        Detroit
        Texas
        LAA

        Go ahead. Tell me how the Jays, with their relatively unimpressive pitching situation, are closer to becoming a dynasty than those teams. All of them have 2 of the following and most have 3: 1) comparable or better current/future lineups 2) better current/future pitching 3) comparable or better resources. Go ahead. Drop some of your objectivity on me.

        And assume you’re a Jays fan, enjoy your 4th place finish. Again.

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      • TheBunk says:

        Well, I’d think the Marlins would need a farm system to be included on a list of potential dynasties. As it stands, i am not seeing one.

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  24. Eric B says:

    I’m a bit disappointed by the short length of the post Marc. I don’t really disagree with any of the rankings, but under 2013+ Outlook it would have been nice to see your comments extend beyond the minor league system to mention all the young players currently on the big league roster that are under control long term (Lawrie, Romero, Morrow, Alvarez etc.) and will make the nucleus of any playoff hopes.

    Under Baseball Operations some mention of AA’s recent trades and internal signings should have been included to underline the team’s major philosophical shift away from big name free agents. The extension of Y. Escobar locks up a premium talent as a premium position for pennies, the trade for Rasmus can only be seen as low risk / high reward from the Jays point of view, and the trade for Santos wasn’t a steal but they addressed a significant need without losing key pieces of the future or paying market rates for a closer.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  25. Uncle Remus says:

    Missed out on Napoli at 1st… at least the return was good huh?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Eric B says:

      One mistake in over 2 years isn’t too bad and it can probably be explained by the euphoric high AA was still experiencing from being able to dump Wells.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

    • JayTeam says:

      AA got what he wanted out of the trade which is a 2012 supplemental draft pick. If he’d held on to Napoli though, Jays would have finished 4th in the division last year, maybe 5 games behind Boston instead of 9. Will Napoli remain a 178 wRC+ player or revert back to the 112 and 119 marks the previous couple of years with the Angels? Maybe last years success is sustainable, but even the Rangers don’t seem to be sure, they don’t seem to be in any hurry signing him to an extension.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  26. mwe1r45 says:

    The Jays are better then every team except Philly
    They’ve already won 3 World Series in 2012, and would clinch every NL division before June 2nd

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  27. #MeOrg says:

    Your math sucks.

    52 * .35 + 60 * .35 + 50 * .15 + 64 * .15 =/= 54

    In fact it equals 56.
    This is the only I actually checked. Is the rest of your math this bad for calculating the overall team score?

    No matter how you tweak your weightings, if you don’t actually do the math right, your results are garbage.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • killmak says:

      Your math is wrong. It is .35 for 2012 Outlook and Financial Resources and .15 for the other two.

      52*.35+60*.15+50*.35+64*.15=54.3

      Vote -1 Vote +1

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