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2012 Trade Value: #25-#21
Posted By Dave Cameron On July 19, 2012 @ 11:37 am In 2012 Trade Value | 108 Comments
So, from the land of embarrassing mistakes comes this – I screwed up yesterday and copied the wrong part of the list in to the #30-#26 post and didn’t catch it until this morning. Kipnis, Moore, Upton, Moustakas, and Gio were actually 25-21, and for whatever reason, I simply grabbed those five when transposing the post into WordPress and didn’t notice that I had copied the wrong section. So, this post is actually presenting #30-#26 again. Feel free to call me an idiot in the comments. I certainly feel like one.
Note: salaries are rounded estimates and include all team-controlled years. Rankings from the 2011 Trade Value series in parentheses.
30. (30) Ian Kinsler, 2B, Texas – Signed through 2017 for $76 million.
The Rangers second baseman got a big contract extension over the winter and is having the worst offensive season of his career, but he remains in the same spot he occupied a year ago, as he was probably just a bit too low last year. At 30, he’s headed towards the downside of his career, but he’s still a highly productive middle infielder who can hit, field, and run the bases, and the extension he got pales in comparison to some of the recent big deals that similarly valuable players have received. While he might not still be a productive player by the end of the contract, he’s good enough now to make a big difference for many contenders, and the salary is low enough that he’s still producing surplus value for the next several seasons.
29. (NR) Dylan Bundy, SP, Baltimore – Under Team Control for 6+ Years
Yes, he’s a pitcher in A-ball. Yes, there are a ton of risks that go along with inexperienced teenage arms. Bundy is not your normal 19-year-old, however. The stuff is terrific, but he’s advanced beyond his years as a pitcher, and several team officials told me that they’d have him in their big league rotation right now. This is higher than I’m comfortable putting an A-ball pitching prospect, to be honest, but I was convinced to move him up by folks in the game who insist that he’s ready to get big league hitters out right now. Given the upside, there are a lot of teams that would love to take a risk on Dylan Bundy.
28. (NR) Jurickson Profar, SS, Texas – Under Team Control for 6+ Years
If you push a 19-year-old to Double-A, the hope is that they can just hold their own. Profar has gone beyond that and just dominated the league instead, posting a 140 wRC+ that makes him a top five hitter in the league, and the four guys ahead of him are legit power hitting prospects or minor league veterans. Profar makes contact, has power, draws walks, and might be a good enough shortstop to force Elvis Andrus out of the way, which is saying something indeed. He doesn’t have Mike Trout‘s speed, and you shouldn’t expect any prospect to flourish the way Trout has this season, but it’s not crazy to say that Profar is a similar type of hitter, with the added ability to play shortstop as well.
27. (40) Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Colorado – Signed through 2017 for $74 million
There’s no question that Gonzalez derives a large benefit from playing in Denver, and he wouldn’t hit as well if he was traded back to sea level. However, even after you adjust for his home park, he’s a 26-year-old running a 157 wRC+, showing that his 2010 season wasn’t a complete fluke. Gonzalez has developed into one of the game’s best offensive performers, and he’s one of the premier power/speed guys in the game today. His defense is still not fantastic, but for a team looking for a young hitter to build around, Gonzalez wouldn’t be a bad place to start. I will readily admit that I was wrong about the $80 million extension that the Rockies gave him last year, which looks like a pretty good deal in retrospect.
26. (7) Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati – Signed through 2023 for $246 million
With a 10 year, $225 million extension that doesn’t even kick in until 2014, Votto became one of the most expensive players in the sport. However, because he’s still just 28, the cost of the deal is deferred well into the future, and any team acquiring him would essentially be getting the best hitter in baseball at bargain rates for the next half decade or so. There’s a ton of value in the front of this contract, and so while the last few years are likely going to bring negative returns, large revenue franchises would love to have him even with his new sticker price. There might not be a large quantity of bidders, but several teams would pay a high price to add Votto to their line-up right now and deal with the financial consequences in 2020 and beyond when that gets here.
And, for those who missed the post yesterday afternoon, here is the real #25-#21, with their write-ups from the #26-#30 post.
25. (NR) Jason Kipnis, 2B, Cleveland – Under Team Control through 2017
When the Indians drafted Kipnis out of Arizona State, he was seen as a tweener outfielder without the speed to play center or the power to play left. So, a few months after selecting him in the third round, the Indians moved him to second base, and are now being rewarded for their foresight. Kipnis has gotten a lot better at second in a hurry, and now profiles as an average to above average defender at an up-the-middle position, and provides the kind of offense (122 wRC+ over 541 MLB plate appearances) you don’t often get from a player at the keystone. Kinpis is a classic good-across-the-board guy, combining gap power with walks and improving contact rates while also being a highly efficient baserunner. In many ways, he profiles as the new Ian Kinsler, and as a 25-year-old with five more seasons of team control, the Indians will be able to get a lot of value from Kipnis without paying a high price to do so.
24. (NR) Matt Moore, SP, Tampa Bay – Signed through 2019 for $36 million
On the field, Moore has been a pretty big disappointment this year, struggling with command problems and showing that he wasn’t quite as polished as he looked down the stretch last year. However, he’s still a lefty with a mid-90s fastball who can miss bats, and teams haven’t forgotten how dominant he was in 2011, so a disappointing rookie season hasn’t shattered his value yet. And then, there’s the contract. In typical Rays fashion, they signed Moore extremely early in exchange for getting team options on his final arbitration year and his first two free agent years, so they’re only on the hook for about $15 million if he never develops. If he does, they’ve essentially got him locked up through age 30 at bargain rates (though there are a lot of incentives built into the deal, so knowing the precise amount ahead of time is impossible). He’s a higher risk guy without the performance track record of many others around him, but he also comes with extremely high reward due to the financial limitations he’s agreed to. If he does turn into an ace, he could end up near the very top of this list in a few years.
23. (5) Justin Upton, OF, Arizona – Signed through 2015 for $42 million.
This ranking is about to be put to the test, as everyone is aware that the Diamondbacks are currently shopping Upton around baseball and will likely trade him at some point in 2012. A year ago, it seemed hard to imagine the D’Backs giving up on their star right fielder, but another mediocre season has made Upton seem like an underachiever once again, so any team acquiring him would be making a bet on a big comeback after changing teams. The talent is certainly there, but he’s no longer all that cheap — the last three years of his contract total $39 million — and has a spotty record hitting away from Chase Field. There’s a lot of risk to be absorbed by any acquiring team, but potential franchise players aren’t moved in their mid-20s too often, especially when they’re not close to free agency. Whether Upton will command a star player’s return or will be shipped off for less than his talent would suggest remains to be seen, but we should have a better idea of how baseball views Upton later this year.
22. (NR) Mike Moustakas, 3B, Kansas City – Under Team Control through 2017
Moustakas was awful during the early part of his rookie season last year, but found his power stroke late in the season and hasn’t slowed down in 2012. He’s still not a finished product, but he’s flashing a combination of above average offense and terrific defense at age 23, and has shown very good contact skills in prior years as well. If he can get back to those lower strikeout rates while sustaining his power output, he may very well may be the new Adrian Beltre, or at least a player of similar value. Because of when he was called up last season, Moustakas may end up as a Super Two, qualifying for arbitration four times and accelerating his pay schedule, but the Royals still control his rights for five more years and have a young star in place at third. Even if he doesn’t remain overly cheap for more than a year or two, he’s still a highly valuable commodity.
21. (NR) Gio Gonzalez, SP, Washington – Signed through 2018 for $65 million
I wasn’t a big fan of the Gio Gonzalez trade for the Nationals, but kudos to Mike Rizzo and his staff for anticipating the breakout pitching star of 2012 and getting him while they still could. Gio’s velocity is up and he’s throwing first pitch strikes, which has led to a huge spike in strikeout rate and a reduction in walks, and the overall package has seen Gio pitch like a legitimate ace. His command is still not fantastic, and previous history suggests that he may not be able to keep this up forever, but Gonzalez looks like a better pitcher than I gave him credit for over the winter. To boot, the contract Washington signed him to now looks like a pretty big steal, as he would have been in for a hefty raise via arbitration, but is now looking at a salary of just $6 million in 2013 with manageable raises for the following three seasons, and then two team options at the end of that. There’s room for Gonzalez to regress and still be worth the contract, and if he keeps pitching like he is right now, he’ll be a huge steal for years to come.
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