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2013 ZiPS Projections – Chicago White Sox

Posted By Carson Cistulli On January 16, 2013 @ 8:00 am In 2013 ZiPS Projections,Featured,White Sox | 30 Comments

Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, are being released at FanGraphs this year. Below are the projections for the Chicago White Sox. Szymborski can be found on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other 2013 Projections: Angels / Astros / Athletics / Blue Jays / Brewers / Cubs / Giants / Nationals / Phillies / Pirates / Rangers / Royals.

Batters
To their credit, Chicago has had some success in populating their starting lineup with cost-controlled talent. Alejandro De Aza, Gordon Beckham, Tyler Flowers, Dayan Viciedo: all are either in their first season of arbitration or earlier, and all are likely to be worth more than their salaries in 2012. What’s less fortunate is that none of them is likely to be any better than average, if that.

Even more unfortunate is that no other field player on the team is projected to be much better than average, either. Adam Dunn, Paul Konerko, and Alex Rios will make more than $40 million combined in 2013, but are forecast to produce just six wins or so — or, about $7 million a win.

Pitchers
The White Sox’ rotation is perhaps the deepest we’ve seen among the 10-plus teams projected so far. Only Yu Darvish‘s projected WAR is distinctly higher so far than Chris Sale‘s — nor are there any black holes after him (i.e. Sale). Left-hander John Danks‘ line is weaker than White Sox fans would probably hope, especially considering how the club owes him $57 million over the next four years; however, that’s perhaps offset by other left-hander Jose Quintana‘s surprisingly promising forecast.

As strong as Chicago’s rotation appears to be, the club’s bullpen is even stronger — relative to other teams we’ve considered here so far, at least. All five of the Sox’ top relievers are projected to be worth at least a win, which appears to be a rare accomplishment.

Bench/Prospects
While the present rotation is strong, it appears as though recent attempts to acquire front-line pitching have been unsuccessful. Simon Castro (acquired from San Diego in the Carlos Quentin) and Nestor Molina (who arrived from Toronto for reliever Sergio Santos), for example, have failed to build off of occasionally promising minor-league resumes. On the other hand, ZiPS does introduce us to Tyler Saladino, a 23-year-old shortstop prospect projected to approach something like major-league average, via a combo package of (a) fair power, (b) fair baserunning, and (c) positional adjustment.

Depth Chart
Here’s a rough depth chart for the White Sox, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player (click to embiggen):

White Sox Depth

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Credit to MLB Depth Charts for roster information.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Alexei Ramirez R 31 SS 636 69 159 26 3 13 70 13 7
Paul Konerko R 37 1B 559 60 140 21 0 26 80 0 0
Alejandro De Aza L 29 CF 564 72 138 29 6 9 50 23 11
Alex Rios R 32 RF 609 75 155 31 4 18 70 20 7
Jeff Keppinger R 33 3B 454 51 120 19 1 8 45 1 1
Adam Dunn L 33 DH 553 65 95 19 0 29 79 1 1
Gordon Beckham R 26 2B 596 68 134 29 1 14 61 6 5
Jose Lopez R 29 3B 418 43 103 23 0 13 55 2 1
Dayan Viciedo R 24 LF 603 66 147 24 1 23 77 1 1
Tyler Saladino R 23 SS 570 65 113 20 5 11 45 20 8
Hector Gimenez B 30 C 376 38 80 18 1 12 48 2 1
Trayce Thompson R 22 CF 629 72 117 27 4 23 77 13 4
Jordan Danks L 26 CF 478 55 98 19 3 10 40 12 5
Tyler Flowers R 27 C 331 38 60 12 1 13 33 2 1
Josh Phegley R 25 C 405 39 92 18 1 8 42 2 1
Orlando Hudson B 35 2B 406 48 87 12 5 7 40 9 3
Carlos Sanchez B 21 SS 551 56 127 20 4 2 42 16 15
DeWayne Wise L 35 CF 287 32 64 12 4 8 28 12 3
Marcus Semien R 22 SS 456 51 92 21 3 9 42 7 7
Steve Tolleson R 29 SS 419 45 88 17 1 7 34 9 3
Bryan Anderson L 26 C 386 35 78 14 1 8 31 1 0
Brent Morel R 26 3B 452 48 104 20 2 8 39 7 4
Stefan Gartrell R 29 RF 522 60 107 22 1 21 64 5 1
Josh Bell B 26 3B 534 57 109 22 2 16 60 3 4
Angel Sanchez R 29 SS 428 47 96 14 2 3 38 4 2
Andy Wilkins L 24 1B 565 62 117 27 1 22 73 3 3
Cyle Hankerd R 28 RF 302 34 64 14 1 9 38 2 2
Greg Golson R 27 RF 513 51 112 20 6 8 39 17 4
Blake Tekotte L 26 CF 515 60 100 20 4 14 49 19 12
Andy Gonzalez R 31 3B 404 36 77 13 1 7 31 3 2
Jared Mitchell L 24 CF 497 52 84 20 6 11 44 12 6
Keenyn Walker B 22 CF 474 49 85 16 3 3 33 36 18
Seth Loman L 27 1B 548 52 111 20 1 19 60 1 2
Tommy Manzella R 30 SS 417 35 74 11 1 4 30 5 4

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP BA OBP SLG wOBA
Alexei Ramirez 636 4.7% 12.4% .120 .290 .269 .306 .389 .298
Paul Konerko 559 9.7% 14.7% .201 .292 .284 .360 .485 .356
Alejandro De Aza 564 7.4% 17.9% .134 .323 .272 .333 .406 .319
Alex Rios 609 4.6% 14.3% .163 .290 .271 .307 .434 .318
Jeff Keppinger 454 6.4% 6.6% .109 .294 .289 .337 .398 .318
Adam Dunn 553 15.6% 34.5% .230 .270 .206 .333 .436 .331
Gordon Beckham 596 6.9% 17.4% .137 .285 .250 .312 .387 .303
Jose Lopez 418 3.8% 12.2% .157 .269 .260 .290 .417 .303
Dayan Viciedo 603 5.8% 21.1% .170 .302 .264 .314 .434 .322
Tyler Saladino 570 9.5% 23.5% .125 .283 .226 .309 .351 .294
Hector Gimenez 376 6.6% 25.3% .162 .281 .231 .281 .393 .289
Trayce Thompson 629 7.9% 35.5% .183 .289 .207 .276 .390 .290
Jordan Danks 478 9.6% 31.2% .131 .331 .232 .309 .363 .294
Tyler Flowers 331 11.2% 34.7% .185 .297 .211 .315 .396 .312
Josh Phegley 405 4.4% 19.8% .116 .285 .241 .280 .357 .277
Orlando Hudson 406 9.4% 17.7% .119 .282 .241 .315 .360 .296
Carlos Sanchez 551 6.0% 20.7% .068 .323 .255 .310 .323 .275
DeWayne Wise 287 4.5% 23.7% .163 .287 .238 .276 .401 .296
Marcus Semien 456 8.3% 25.2% .133 .290 .225 .295 .358 .281
Steve Tolleson 419 8.1% 19.8% .106 .278 .233 .297 .339 .283
Bryan Anderson 386 8.0% 26.4% .115 .290 .223 .293 .338 .280
Brent Morel 452 5.1% 19.5% .114 .294 .246 .286 .360 .280
Stefan Gartrell 522 7.7% 29.9% .183 .288 .225 .292 .408 .305
Josh Bell 534 7.5% 30.0% .152 .294 .224 .283 .376 .284
Angel Sanchez 428 7.5% 12.4% .070 .282 .250 .310 .320 .275
Andy Wilkins 565 8.8% 23.9% .187 .267 .229 .298 .416 .308
Cyle Hankerd 302 5.6% 20.9% .159 .274 .236 .308 .395 .306
Greg Golson 513 4.5% 26.3% .117 .310 .235 .276 .352 .276
Blake Tekotte 515 8.3% 30.3% .152 .294 .216 .288 .368 .284
Andy Gonzalez 404 10.6% 22.5% .101 .269 .216 .303 .317 .276
Jared Mitchell 497 9.9% 41.9% .148 .329 .192 .279 .340 .272
Keenyn Walker 474 9.7% 36.7% .074 .333 .202 .285 .276 .255
Seth Loman 548 5.8% 31.0% .159 .298 .223 .294 .382 .295
Tommy Manzella 417 6.5% 32.1% .066 .286 .194 .250 .260 .225

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def WAR No.1 Comp
Alexei Ramirez 636 4.4 86 7 2.7 Rick Burleson
Paul Konerko 559 6.6 125 -5 2.5 Fred McGriff
Alejandro De Aza 564 5.0 98 1 2.2 Randy Winn
Alex Rios 609 5.1 97 2 1.7 Juan Encarnacion
Jeff Keppinger 454 5.1 97 -1 1.6 Bill Madlock
Adam Dunn 553 4.9 105 0 1.5 Richie Sexson
Gordon Beckham 596 4.3 87 0 1.4 Joe Randa
Jose Lopez 418 4.4 88 3 1.4 Kazuo Matsui
Dayan Viciedo 603 5.0 99 -1 1.3 Walter Young
Tyler Saladino 570 3.9 78 -2 1.3 Ken Jackson
Hector Gimenez 376 3.9 79 2 1.3 Alvin Colina
Trayce Thompson 629 3.8 77 3 1.2 Wladimir Balentien
Jordan Danks 478 4.0 80 4 1.2 Andy Tomberlin
Tyler Flowers 331 4.3 91 -3 1.1 David Ross
Josh Phegley 405 3.6 70 3 1.0 Jason Hill
Orlando Hudson 406 4.1 82 1 1.0 Kazuo Matsui
Carlos Sanchez 551 3.3 71 4 0.8 Manuel Lee
DeWayne Wise 287 4.2 80 2 0.8 Jalal Leach
Marcus Semien 456 3.5 75 0 0.8 Giomar Guevara
Steve Tolleson 419 3.6 71 -1 0.7 Nick Ortiz
Bryan Anderson 386 3.5 70 -2 0.6 Ray Stephens
Brent Morel 452 3.7 73 1 0.5 Juan Portes
Stefan Gartrell 522 4.2 86 0 0.5 John Nelson
Josh Bell 534 3.6 76 -1 0.5 Les Pearsey
Angel Sanchez 428 3.6 71 -4 0.3 Joe Funaro
Andy Wilkins 565 4.3 90 -1 0.3 Tom Forrester
Cyle Hankerd 302 4.2 88 -1 0.2 Mike Bell
Greg Golson 513 3.6 68 5 0.1 Tommy Murphy
Blake Tekotte 515 3.5 76 -3 0.1 Brad Snyder
Andy Gonzalez 404 3.3 68 -1 0.1 Jason Wood
Jared Mitchell 497 3.2 66 -1 -0.1 Mickey Hall
Keenyn Walker 474 2.7 53 2 -0.4 Paul Rodgers
Seth Loman 548 3.8 81 -4 -0.6 Ivan Cruz
Tommy Manzella 417 2.1 38 0 -0.8 Chris Petersen

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player T Age G GS IP SO BB HR H R ER
Chris Sale L 24 28 28 175.7 174 52 19 156 72 67
Jake Peavy R 32 25 25 159.3 136 38 20 154 76 71
Gavin Floyd R 30 29 28 172.7 141 54 20 173 88 82
Jose Quintana L 24 36 32 186.3 116 67 20 200 97 91
John Danks L 28 20 20 126.0 93 41 15 129 67 63
Dylan Axelrod R 27 27 21 126.7 85 52 16 140 75 70
Nate Jones R 27 65 0 71.0 64 32 7 68 33 31
Matt Thornton L 36 60 0 55.3 55 18 5 51 24 22
Hector Santiago L 25 45 7 81.3 88 50 12 71 43 40
Addison Reed R 24 59 0 66.7 70 21 8 62 31 29
Jesse Crain R 31 58 0 54.0 62 25 7 44 24 22
Donnie Veal L 28 60 0 59.0 55 41 4 53 29 27
Brian Omogrosso R 29 37 0 49.0 40 23 7 51 29 27
Simon Castro R 25 23 23 115.7 69 46 20 136 79 74
Brandon Kloess R 28 38 0 63.3 45 37 7 69 40 37
Nestor Molina R 24 25 23 123.3 74 38 23 150 86 80
Brian Bruney R 31 31 0 32.7 27 23 4 34 21 20
Deunte Heath R 27 37 7 69.7 58 47 11 74 48 45
David Purcey L 31 44 0 47.7 38 38 6 49 32 30
Daniel Moskos L 27 46 0 47.3 32 33 6 52 32 30
Jeff Gray R 31 39 0 47.3 25 23 7 56 33 31
Charlie Leesman L 26 26 26 122.3 66 86 16 145 90 84
Charlie Shirek R 27 26 18 112.7 52 40 21 143 83 78
Leyson Septimo L 27 45 0 44.7 43 49 8 43 34 32
Ramon Troncoso R 30 49 0 63.0 39 35 11 74 46 43
Jhan Marinez R 24 49 0 56.0 50 49 10 58 42 39
Matt Zaleski R 31 25 22 113.0 72 52 23 139 89 83
Jacob Petricka R 25 26 26 112.3 68 98 21 135 96 90

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Chris Sale 175.7 735 23.7% 7.1% .282 3.43 3.39 80 79
Jake Peavy 159.3 670 20.3% 5.7% .286 4.01 3.83 93 89
Gavin Floyd 172.7 745 18.9% 7.2% .295 4.27 4.06 99 95
Jose Quintana 186.3 826 14.0% 8.1% .292 4.40 4.36 102 101
John Danks 126.0 548 17.0% 7.5% .288 4.50 4.17 105 97
Dylan Axelrod 126.7 572 14.9% 9.1% .302 4.97 4.79 116 112
Nate Jones 71.0 313 20.4% 10.2% .292 3.93 3.84 92 89
Matt Thornton 55.3 235 23.4% 7.7% .297 3.58 3.15 83 73
Hector Santiago 81.3 365 24.1% 13.7% .285 4.43 4.95 103 115
Addison Reed 66.7 283 24.7% 7.4% .298 3.92 3.54 91 83
Jesse Crain 54.0 231 26.8% 10.8% .272 3.67 3.76 85 88
Donnie Veal 59.0 271 20.3% 15.1% .293 4.12 4.40 96 102
Brian Omogrosso 49.0 221 18.1% 10.4% .295 4.96 4.85 115 113
Simon Castro 115.7 529 13.0% 8.7% .300 5.76 5.52 134 129
Brandon Kloess 63.3 296 15.2% 12.5% .306 5.26 5.01 122 117
Nestor Molina 123.3 558 13.3% 6.8% .306 5.84 5.44 136 127
Brian Bruney 32.7 155 17.4% 14.8% .300 5.51 5.24 128 122
Deunte Heath 69.7 330 17.6% 14.2% .300 5.81 5.68 135 132
David Purcey 47.7 230 16.5% 16.5% .294 5.66 5.59 132 130
Daniel Moskos 47.3 227 14.1% 14.5% .301 5.70 5.55 133 129
Jeff Gray 47.3 221 11.3% 10.4% .301 5.89 5.55 137 129
Charlie Leesman 122.3 598 11.0% 14.4% .306 6.18 6.02 144 140
Charlie Shirek 112.7 521 10.0% 7.7% .305 6.23 5.87 145 137
Leyson Septimo 44.7 226 19.0% 21.7% .284 6.45 6.92 150 161
Ramon Troncoso 63.0 298 13.1% 11.7% .301 6.14 5.89 143 137
Jhan Marinez 56.0 275 18.2% 17.8% .296 6.27 6.42 146 149
Matt Zaleski 113.0 530 13.6% 9.8% .309 6.61 6.03 154 140
Jacob Petricka 112.3 570 11.9% 17.2% .305 7.21 7.17 168 167

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ WAR No. 1 Comp
Chris Sale 175.7 8.91 2.66 0.97 128 5.0 Vida Blue
Jake Peavy 159.3 7.68 2.15 1.13 110 3.4 Dennis Eckersley
Gavin Floyd 172.7 7.35 2.81 1.04 103 3.2 Kevin Brown
Jose Quintana 186.3 5.60 3.24 0.97 100 3.1 Jimmy Anderson
John Danks 126.0 6.64 2.93 1.07 98 2.0 Chris Hammond
Dylan Axelrod 126.7 6.04 3.69 1.14 89 1.2 Mike LaCoss
Nate Jones 71.0 8.11 4.06 0.89 112 1.1 Bryce Florie
Matt Thornton 55.3 8.95 2.93 0.81 123 1.1 Dan Plesac
Hector Santiago 81.3 9.74 5.54 1.33 99 1.1 John Rocker
Addison Reed 66.7 9.45 2.83 1.08 112 1.0 Huston Street
Jesse Crain 54.0 10.33 4.17 1.17 120 1.0 Troy Percival
Donnie Veal 59.0 8.39 6.25 0.61 107 0.8 Matt Whisenant
Brian Omogrosso 49.0 7.35 4.22 1.29 89 0.1 Ernie Camacho
Simon Castro 115.7 5.37 3.58 1.56 76 0.0 Andy Taulbee
Brandon Kloess 63.3 6.40 5.26 1.00 84 -0.1 Mike Bumstead
Nestor Molina 123.3 5.40 2.77 1.68 75 -0.1 Brian Meadows
Brian Bruney 32.7 7.43 6.33 1.10 80 -0.1 Moe Burtschy
Deunte Heath 69.7 7.49 6.07 1.42 76 -0.2 Rusty Ford
David Purcey 47.7 7.17 7.17 1.13 78 -0.3 Matt Whisenant
Daniel Moskos 47.3 6.09 6.28 1.14 77 -0.3 Dean Brueggemann
Jeff Gray 47.3 4.76 4.38 1.33 75 -0.4 Bob Scanlan
Charlie Leesman 122.3 4.86 6.33 1.18 71 -0.6 Greg Kubes
Charlie Shirek 112.7 4.15 3.19 1.68 71 -0.7 Vicente Bonilla
Leyson Septimo 44.7 8.66 9.87 1.61 68 -0.7 Roberto Duran
Ramon Troncoso 63.0 5.57 5.00 1.57 72 -0.7 Marty McLeary
Jhan Marinez 56.0 8.04 7.88 1.61 70 -0.7 Michael Doyne
Matt Zaleski 113.0 5.73 4.14 1.83 67 -1.2 Runelvys Hernandez
Jacob Petricka 112.3 5.45 7.85 1.68 61 -2.0 Tom Davey

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.09 ERA and the NL having a 3.92 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected WAR.


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