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2013 ZiPS Projections – Cincinnati Reds

Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, are being released at FanGraphs this year. Below are the projections for the Cincinnati Reds. Szymborski can be found on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other 2013 Projections: Angels / Astros / Athletics / Blue Jays / Brewers / Cubs / Giants / Mets / Nationals / Phillies / Pirates / Rangers / Rockies / Royals / White Sox.

Batters
Something of which people never tire is to learn that there is both good news and also that there’s bad news. The bad news, in the case of the Cincinnati Reds, appears to be — at least so far as Dan Szymborski’s finely calibrated ZiPS projection system is concerned — appears to be that newly acquired Shin-Soo Choo is probably a pretty bad defensive center fielder. The good news, though, is that he’s still expected to be worth about three wins in 2013 — i.e. more than he produced in either 2011 or -12.

Otherwise, of some note — beyond the simple fact that the club’s offense is generally talented — is the not particularly optimistic projection for 34-year-old Ryan Ludwick, whom the Reds signed to a two-year, $15 million contract this offseason. In the present market, that’s not a horrible deal for a starting outfielder; however, Cincinnati will be looking to compete for the NL Central title this season, and will want at least average production from the position.

Pitchers
In a display of uncommon durability, five starters — Bronson Arroyo, Homer Bailey, Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos, and Mike Leake — made a combined 161 starts for Cincinnati in 2012. Accordingly, ZiPS — which is rather conservative, generally, in this regard — projects two Reds pitchers (Cueto and Latos) to throw at least 190 innings, and another three (Arroyo, Bailey, and Leake) to cross the 160-inning threshold. The last of those (Leake) is unlikely to reach the mark in reality, however: it is generally understood that Aroldis Chapman, who was dominant in relief in 2012, will make the transition to the rotation this season.

Replacing Chapman at the back end of the Reds’ bullpen in 2013 will be Jonathan Broxton, whom the Reds signed to a three-year, $21 million deal at the end of November. His projection on a per-inning basis is encouraging, and there’s reason to believe that the addition of a cut fastball (about which, of course, ZiPS wouldn’t have any idea) will help him preserve the gains he exhibited after arriving in Cincinnati. Still, it’s also reasonable to wonder why a team would commit so substantially to a pitcher who, just the year before, was able only to find a one-year and $4 million contract with the Royals.

Bench/Prospects
Outfield prospect Billy Hamilton has mostly one tool (speed), but ZiPS indicates that he probably has enough of that one tool at this point so’s to make him something like a league-average player. Despite some offensive difficulties following a May promotion to Double-A last season, David Vidal also receives a relatively optimistic projection — relative to his age, if nothing else. Among pitchers, left-hander Tony Cingrani‘s development bears watching. He was among the best starters last year at both High- and Double-A. His role for 2013 is uncertain, although ZiPS indicates he might be capable of throwing league-average innings as a starter right now.

Depth Chart
Here’s a rough depth chart for the Reds, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player (click to embiggen):

Reds Depth

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Credit to MLB Depth Charts for roster information.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Joey Votto L 29 1B 579 80 142 35 1 26 87 9 5
Jay Bruce L 26 RF 623 86 142 28 4 32 101 8 5
Shin-Soo Choo L 30 CF 594 78 142 27 3 21 76 18 6
Brandon Phillips R 32 2B 645 85 166 32 2 17 78 14 6
Zack Cozart R 27 SS 591 78 138 30 4 15 49 10 2
Todd Frazier R 27 3B 552 66 124 28 4 21 76 10 4
Devin Mesoraco R 25 C 405 44 89 21 2 14 49 1 2
Ryan Hanigan R 32 C 327 25 76 11 0 4 28 0 0
Billy Hamilton B 22 CF 651 78 157 18 11 2 47 54 17
Ryan Ludwick R 34 LF 490 57 111 22 1 21 86 1 2
David Vidal R 23 3B 570 62 124 28 1 15 72 3 3
Scott Rolen R 38 3B 286 26 65 17 2 6 39 1 1
Chris Heisey R 28 LF 389 50 92 16 3 14 46 7 2
Henry Rodriguez B 23 3B 544 53 143 24 1 10 56 17 8
Nevin Ashley R 28 C 345 32 69 11 2 7 33 3 2
Tucker Barnhart B 22 C 418 39 92 19 2 4 37 1 3
Jack Hannahan L 33 3B 347 34 73 14 1 7 38 1 1
Kris Negron R 27 SS 478 53 94 15 4 10 40 15 4
Jason Donald R 28 SS 444 53 97 18 3 7 36 10 4
Corky Miller R 37 C 249 25 45 8 0 5 20 1 1
Marquez Smith R 28 3B 397 45 87 19 1 11 42 2 0
Xavier Paul L 28 LF 335 38 80 16 2 8 36 12 5
Mike Hessman R 35 1B 431 55 82 18 1 26 72 0 1
Cesar Izturis B 33 SS 243 20 56 7 2 1 16 4 2
Miguel Cairo R 39 3B 193 18 43 8 2 4 22 3 2
Ryan LaMarre R 24 CF 532 52 116 17 3 5 37 29 13
Emmanuel Burriss B 28 2B 326 35 72 9 2 1 20 16 6
Neftali Soto R 24 1B 563 59 124 25 1 23 74 1 1
Denis Phipps R 27 CF 524 59 110 23 4 14 56 8 6
Joey Gathright L 32 CF 161 16 35 4 0 0 12 5 3
Beau Mills L 26 1B 465 46 102 21 1 14 63 1 1
Willie Harris L 35 LF 288 29 55 12 1 5 25 5 4
Donald Lutz L 24 LF 527 55 117 21 4 16 63 6 5
Derrick Robinson B 25 LF 568 55 116 13 4 2 32 34 14

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP BA OBP SLG wOBA
Joey Votto 579 16.6% 18.8% .242 .338 .300 .420 .542 .397
Jay Bruce 623 10.4% 24.4% .240 .296 .258 .337 .498 .347
Shin-Soo Choo 594 10.9% 20.4% .186 .323 .276 .369 .462 .361
Brandon Phillips 645 5.4% 12.4% .147 .297 .279 .326 .426 .324
Zack Cozart 591 5.6% 19.1% .151 .291 .252 .298 .403 .304
Todd Frazier 552 7.4% 24.6% .197 .296 .247 .310 .444 .325
Devin Mesoraco 405 8.6% 21.0% .184 .281 .245 .316 .429 .316
Ryan Hanigan 327 11.3% 10.1% .081 .290 .269 .357 .350 .300
Billy Hamilton 651 8.6% 23.2% .078 .354 .267 .330 .345 .305
Ryan Ludwick 490 8.4% 21.8% .198 .286 .253 .321 .451 .330
David Vidal 570 5.8% 25.6% .143 .297 .237 .286 .380 .287
Scott Rolen 286 6.6% 17.1% .149 .282 .249 .304 .398 .305
Chris Heisey 389 5.7% 22.6% .181 .306 .260 .313 .441 .324
Henry Rodriguez 544 4.4% 16.4% .110 .320 .279 .312 .389 .304
Nevin Ashley 345 6.7% 25.5% .116 .286 .223 .292 .339 .277
Tucker Barnhart 418 7.4% 21.1% .092 .301 .241 .298 .333 .277
Jack Hannahan 347 8.9% 21.9% .119 .288 .235 .307 .354 .292
Kris Negron 478 5.6% 26.2% .122 .279 .217 .275 .339 .272
Jason Donald 444 6.5% 22.5% .112 .304 .242 .306 .354 .291
Corky Miller 249 12.9% 17.3% .111 .248 .216 .333 .327 .295
Marquez Smith 397 6.0% 24.7% .148 .293 .238 .290 .386 .294
Xavier Paul 335 6.3% 22.4% .143 .320 .261 .311 .404 .306
Mike Hessman 431 7.0% 33.9% .250 .251 .209 .274 .459 .310
Cesar Izturis 243 3.7% 10.3% .061 .272 .247 .280 .308 .257
Miguel Cairo 193 4.1% 13.5% .134 .260 .242 .283 .376 .283
Ryan LaMarre 532 7.0% 26.3% .079 .327 .241 .306 .320 .281
Emmanuel Burriss 326 6.1% 12.9% .054 .280 .244 .299 .298 .265
Neftali Soto 563 5.5% 26.6% .183 .286 .237 .286 .420 .305
Denis Phipps 524 6.1% 30.3% .151 .306 .227 .278 .378 .284
Joey Gathright 161 5.0% 18.6% .028 .294 .236 .278 .264 .239
Beau Mills 465 5.4% 21.7% .151 .274 .236 .280 .387 .288
Willie Harris 288 9.7% 21.5% .115 .266 .217 .301 .332 .275
Donald Lutz 527 5.1% 29.8% .157 .315 .237 .285 .394 .290
Derrick Robinson 568 6.3% 21.1% .053 .286 .224 .275 .277 .245

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def WAR No.1 Comp
Joey Votto 579 8.8 155 3 5.6 Todd Helton
Jay Bruce 623 6.1 120 2 3.2 Carlos Pena
Shin-Soo Choo 594 6.5 121 -9 3.1 Willie Crawford
Brandon Phillips 645 5.2 99 4 3.0 Johnny Logan
Zack Cozart 591 4.5 85 5 2.5 Eddie Miller
Todd Frazier 552 5.0 99 -2 1.9 Wade Rowdon
Devin Mesoraco 405 4.8 97 -1 1.8 Charles Johnson
Ryan Hanigan 327 4.6 90 4 1.7 Jerry Grote
Billy Hamilton 651 4.6 81 1 1.6 Milt Cuyler
Ryan Ludwick 490 5.2 104 -2 1.1 Jeff Conine
David Vidal 570 3.8 77 4 1.0 Russ Davis
Scott Rolen 286 4.3 86 3 0.9 Geoff Blum
Chris Heisey 389 5.1 99 0 0.9 Rod Allen
Henry Rodriguez 544 4.6 86 -4 0.9 Aurelio Rodriguez
Nevin Ashley 345 3.4 68 3 0.8 Francisco Morales
Tucker Barnhart 418 3.4 69 3 0.8 Donnie Scott
Jack Hannahan 347 3.8 76 3 0.7 Shanie Dugas
Kris Negron 478 3.4 64 2 0.7 Hector Tiburcio
Jason Donald 444 3.9 76 -3 0.6 Nick Green
Corky Miller 249 3.7 78 0 0.6 Rick Ferrell
Marquez Smith 397 4.0 79 0 0.6 Tim Olson
Xavier Paul 335 4.7 90 1 0.5 Leron Lee
Mike Hessman 431 4.2 92 0 0.2 Deron Johnson
Cesar Izturis 243 3.1 58 2 0.2 Tommy Thevenow
Miguel Cairo 193 3.7 75 -1 0.1 Mark Belanger
Ryan LaMarre 532 3.6 68 0 0.0 Vernon Thomas
Emmanuel Burriss 326 3.3 61 0 -0.1 Edgar Caceres
Neftali Soto 563 4.2 86 -2 -0.1 Willis Otanez
Denis Phipps 524 3.6 73 -3 -0.1 Mike Stellern
Joey Gathright 161 2.5 46 0 -0.4 Jim Buccheri
Beau Mills 465 3.8 76 0 -0.5 Tom Forrester
Willie Harris 288 3.3 69 -1 -0.5 Dann Howitt
Donald Lutz 527 3.9 79 -4 -0.6 Randy Byers
Derrick Robinson 568 2.8 49 3 -1.5 Angelo Nunley

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player T Age G GS IP SO BB HR H R ER
Johnny Cueto R 27 31 31 192.7 146 51 17 182 76 71
Mat Latos R 25 32 32 197.3 186 57 22 173 81 76
Aroldis Chapman L 25 26 26 143.7 161 65 16 108 62 58
Homer Bailey R 27 29 29 173.3 138 45 20 174 82 77
Sean Marshall L 30 73 0 66.3 76 18 5 55 21 20
Mike Leake R 25 29 27 166.7 114 41 25 179 91 85
Bronson Arroyo R 36 26 26 164.7 99 37 28 174 90 84
Tony Cingrani L 23 24 22 107.3 107 47 15 100 55 51
J.J. Hoover R 25 63 0 65.0 73 29 7 53 26 24
Sam LeCure R 29 49 0 60.0 63 22 7 51 25 23
Jonathan Broxton R 29 48 0 47.7 46 18 5 44 20 19
Alfredo Simon R 32 45 0 61.3 52 23 6 60 29 27
Nick Masset R 31 45 0 42.7 43 18 5 39 19 18
Jose Arredondo R 29 65 0 61.7 61 33 7 55 30 28
Chad Rogers R 23 22 22 125.3 84 49 20 137 77 72
Will Ohman L 35 50 0 40.3 36 17 5 38 20 19
Daniel Corcino R 22 26 26 127.7 95 67 19 133 79 74
Logan Ondrusek R 28 67 0 61.7 45 30 8 61 33 31
Kevin Whelan R 29 35 0 36.0 34 26 6 35 24 22
Loek Van Mil R 28 35 0 54.7 34 29 7 59 34 32
Kanekoa Texeira R 27 37 2 52.7 28 30 7 59 34 32
Ismael Guillon L 21 16 16 71.0 57 54 11 73 49 46
Drew Hayes R 25 56 0 57.3 51 43 8 56 36 34
Pedro Villarreal R 25 27 24 129.3 75 46 22 150 87 81
Justin Freeman R 26 57 0 62.3 46 23 12 68 40 37
Carlos Contreras R 22 39 0 50.3 41 32 9 52 33 31
Jeff Stevens R 29 45 0 57.3 44 36 9 60 37 35
Nick Christiani R 25 53 0 66.0 34 30 9 75 43 40
Wilkin De La Rosa L 28 40 2 47.0 31 35 7 52 33 31
Carlos Fisher R 30 48 0 56.0 48 49 9 56 40 37
Todd Redmond R 28 26 25 138.0 100 52 32 157 96 90
Kyle Lotzkar R 23 20 20 91.3 76 62 18 97 67 63
Greg Reynolds R 27 25 22 131.3 56 47 24 160 93 87
Josh Ravin R 25 23 12 64.0 46 57 12 72 51 48
Andrew Brackman R 27 32 13 81.3 51 61 14 93 62 58
Curtis Partch R 26 38 15 109.0 66 51 19 132 79 74
Chad Reineke R 31 25 21 120.0 64 50 24 144 88 82
Jeff Marquez R 28 21 18 92.7 45 46 17 113 72 67
Sean Gallagher R 27 31 20 108.3 67 79 23 125 89 83

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Johnny Cueto 192.7 811 18.0% 6.3% .282 3.32 3.65 83 91
Mat Latos 197.3 822 22.6% 6.9% .273 3.47 3.48 87 87
Aroldis Chapman 143.7 604 26.7% 10.8% .257 3.63 3.72 91 93
Homer Bailey 173.3 739 18.7% 6.1% .291 4.00 3.85 100 96
Sean Marshall 66.3 272 28.0% 6.6% .293 2.71 2.55 68 64
Mike Leake 166.7 720 15.8% 5.7% .287 4.59 4.43 115 111
Bronson Arroyo 164.7 705 14.0% 5.2% .272 4.59 4.81 115 120
Tony Cingrani 107.3 469 22.8% 10.0% .290 4.28 4.43 107 111
J.J. Hoover 65.0 277 26.4% 10.5% .277 3.32 3.63 83 91
Sam LeCure 60.0 253 24.9% 8.7% .277 3.45 3.61 86 90
Jonathan Broxton 47.7 205 22.4% 8.8% .291 3.59 3.66 90 92
Alfredo Simon 61.3 267 19.5% 8.6% .297 3.96 3.89 99 97
Nick Masset 42.7 185 23.2% 9.7% .288 3.80 3.80 95 95
Jose Arredondo 61.7 273 22.3% 12.1% .281 4.09 4.10 102 103
Chad Rogers 125.3 562 14.9% 8.7% .290 5.17 5.12 129 128
Will Ohman 40.3 176 20.5% 9.7% .290 4.24 4.26 106 107
Daniel Corcino 127.7 583 16.3% 11.5% .291 5.22 5.35 131 134
Logan Ondrusek 61.7 276 16.3% 10.9% .277 4.52 4.68 113 117
Kevin Whelan 36.0 169 20.1% 15.4% .287 5.50 5.71 138 143
Loek Van Mil 54.7 252 13.5% 11.5% .292 5.27 5.27 132 132
Kanekoa Texeira 52.7 247 11.3% 12.1% .290 5.47 5.52 137 138
Ismael Guillon 71.0 340 16.8% 15.9% .291 5.83 6.00 146 150
Drew Hayes 57.3 271 18.8% 15.9% .293 5.34 5.54 134 139
Pedro Villarreal 129.3 584 12.8% 7.9% .296 5.64 5.42 141 136
Justin Freeman 62.3 278 16.6% 8.3% .290 5.34 5.33 134 133
Carlos Contreras 50.3 235 17.5% 13.6% .289 5.54 5.88 139 147
Jeff Stevens 57.3 268 16.4% 13.4% .290 5.49 5.59 137 140
Nick Christiani 66.0 303 11.2% 9.9% .292 5.45 5.25 136 131
Wilkin De La Rosa 47.0 228 13.6% 15.4% .296 5.94 6.14 149 154
Carlos Fisher 56.0 273 17.6% 17.9% .288 5.95 6.20 149 155
Todd Redmond 138.0 623 16.1% 8.3% .290 5.87 5.90 147 148
Kyle Lotzkar 91.3 433 17.6% 14.3% .292 6.21 6.19 155 155
Greg Reynolds 131.3 601 9.3% 7.8% .292 5.96 5.85 149 146
Josh Ravin 64.0 321 14.3% 17.8% .299 6.75 6.95 169 174
Andrew Brackman 81.3 398 12.8% 15.3% .296 6.42 6.48 161 162
Curtis Partch 109.0 510 12.9% 10.0% .309 6.11 5.72 153 143
Chad Reineke 120.0 554 11.6% 9.0% .294 6.15 6.05 154 151
Jeff Marquez 92.7 437 10.3% 10.5% .296 6.51 6.13 163 153
Sean Gallagher 108.3 529 12.7% 14.9% .290 6.90 7.00 173 175

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ WAR No. 1 Comp
Johnny Cueto 192.7 6.82 2.38 0.79 123 4.8 Roy Halladay
Mat Latos 197.3 8.48 2.60 1.00 118 4.5 John Thomson
Aroldis Chapman 143.7 10.08 4.07 1.00 113 3.0 Herb Score
Homer Bailey 173.3 7.17 2.34 1.04 102 2.8 Moose Haas
Sean Marshall 66.3 10.32 2.44 0.68 151 1.6 Chuck McElroy
Mike Leake 166.7 6.15 2.21 1.35 89 1.5 Chris Holt
Bronson Arroyo 164.7 5.41 2.02 1.53 89 1.5 Bill Gullickson
Tony Cingrani 107.3 8.97 3.94 1.26 96 1.4 Shawn Estes
J.J. Hoover 65.0 10.11 4.02 0.97 123 1.1 Bobby Jenks
Sam LeCure 60.0 9.45 3.30 1.05 118 0.9 Jason Frasor
Jonathan Broxton 47.7 8.68 3.40 0.94 114 0.6 Jay Powell
Alfredo Simon 61.3 7.63 3.38 0.88 103 0.5 Danny Kolb
Nick Masset 42.7 9.06 3.79 1.05 108 0.5 Mike MacDougal
Jose Arredondo 61.7 8.90 4.81 1.02 100 0.4 Calvin Jones
Chad Rogers 125.3 6.03 3.52 1.44 79 0.3 Zach McClellan
Will Ohman 40.3 8.04 3.80 1.12 96 0.2 Kevin Hickey
Daniel Corcino 127.7 6.70 4.72 1.34 78 0.2 Randy Veres
Logan Ondrusek 61.7 6.56 4.38 1.17 90 0.1 Jarod Juelsgaard
Kevin Whelan 36.0 8.50 6.50 1.50 74 -0.4 Bart Evans
Loek Van Mil 54.7 5.59 4.77 1.15 78 -0.4 Mike Zimmerman
Kanekoa Texeira 52.7 4.78 5.12 1.20 75 -0.4 Ed Sprague
Ismael Guillon 71.0 7.23 6.85 1.39 70 -0.4 Norm Charlton
Drew Hayes 57.3 8.01 6.75 1.26 77 -0.5 Bill Bene
Pedro Villarreal 129.3 5.22 3.20 1.53 73 -0.5 Pat Ahearne
Justin Freeman 62.3 6.65 3.32 1.73 77 -0.5 Dale Plummer
Carlos Contreras 50.3 7.34 5.73 1.61 74 -0.5 Agustin Montero
Jeff Stevens 57.3 6.91 5.65 1.41 74 -0.6 Marty McLeary
Nick Christiani 66.0 4.64 4.09 1.23 75 -0.6 Kevin Joseph
Wilkin De La Rosa 47.0 5.94 6.70 1.34 69 -0.6 James Wray
Carlos Fisher 56.0 7.71 7.88 1.45 69 -0.9 Marty McLeary
Todd Redmond 138.0 6.52 3.39 2.09 70 -0.9 Joe Law
Kyle Lotzkar 91.3 7.49 6.11 1.77 66 -1.0 Robert Person
Greg Reynolds 131.3 3.84 3.22 1.65 69 -1.0 Jon Asahina
Josh Ravin 64.0 6.47 8.02 1.69 61 -1.2 Jason Baker
Andrew Brackman 81.3 5.65 6.75 1.55 64 -1.2 Dallas Trahern
Curtis Partch 109.0 5.45 4.21 1.57 67 -1.2 Paul O’Malley
Chad Reineke 120.0 4.80 3.75 1.80 66 -1.2 R.A. Dickey
Jeff Marquez 92.7 4.37 4.47 1.65 63 -1.3 Mike Heathcott
Sean Gallagher 108.3 5.57 6.57 1.91 59 -2.1 Mike Romano

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.09 ERA and the NL having a 3.92 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected WAR.