2013 ZiPS Projections – Cleveland Indians

Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, are being released at FanGraphs this year. Below are the projections for the Cleveland Indians. Szymborski can be found on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other 2013 Projections: Angels / Astros / Athletics / Blue Jays / Braves / Brewers / Cardinals / Cubs / Diamondbacks / Dodgers / Giants / Mariners / Marlins / Mets / Nationals / Orioles / Padres / Phillies / Pirates / Rangers / Rays / Reds / Red Sox / Rockies / Royals / Tigers / Twins / White Sox / Yankees.

Batters
If you’re like the author, you’re hirsute in a way that make pets and small children demonstrably uncomfortable. You’re also a bit surprised by the competence of the Indians offense entering 2013. No Cleveland field player posted better than a 3.4 WAR in 2012; in fact, there are three players here — Carlos Santana (4.4), Michael Bourn (4.0), and Asdrubal Cabrera (3.7) — projected to surpass last year’s team-high mark. Six other players are forecast to post something between a 2.0 and 3.0 WAR.

A thing to note: both Michael Brantley and Drew Stubbs are projected as center fielders, where each spent the majority of 2012 defensively. Moving to the corners won’t affect their individual WAR projections, likely, but does mean that what they lose in runs to positional adjustment, they’re likely to regain in terms of runs saved afield. If we say that Brantley and Stubbs are roughly average center fielders, then it’s also fair to say they’re likely to save something like +10 runs defensively in either left or right field.

Pitchers
With regard to the Cleveland rotation, the author defers to SB Nation’s Grant Brisbee, who offered the following Precision Analysis shortly after inspecting the depth chart included further down in this post.

@cistulli @dszymborskiSay, that’s pretty good, and OH GOD NO NO NO THE ROTATION NO NO NO

— Grant Brisbee (@mccoveychron) February 14, 2013

So far as the bullpen is concerned, Cleveland has a few reliable high-leverage arms in Chris Perez, Vinnie Pestano, and Joe Smith. After that triumvirate, however, the options are unclear. Left-hander Rich Hill, whom the club signed last week, has managed only 31.2 major-league innings since 2010, but has been quite good during them, striking out 36 batters. No other pitcher besides the four just mentioned receives a park-adjusted ERA or FIP projection better than league average.

Bench/Prospects
Outfielder Ezequiel Carrera enters his age-26 season — and, while his offensive ceiling is probably limited, ZiPS suggests that he defends and runs well enough to produce something not unlike an average major-league season. Twice ranked (in 2008 and -09) among the game’s top-30 prospects by Baseball America, a now 28-year-old Matt LaPorta enters the season with a career line of .238/.301/.393 (.276 BABIP) in 1068 major-league plate appearances. Nor does ZiPS forecast any sort of great departure from that level in 2013.

Depth Chart
Here’s a rough depth chart for the Indians, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player (click to embiggen):

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Credit to MLB Depth Charts for roster information.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Carlos Santana	B	27	C	600	76	124	29	2	20	78	4	3
Michael Bourn	L	30	CF	689	91	165	26	8	6	49	46	13
Asdrubal Cabrera	B	27	SS	642	78	157	33	2	17	73	12	5
Jason Kipnis	L	26	2B	609	80	139	24	6	14	71	18	4
Michael Brantley	L	26	CF	641	78	159	31	5	7	57	19	7
Nick Swisher	B	32	RF	592	66	128	30	1	19	71	1	2
Ezequiel Carrera	L	26	CF	593	70	143	19	6	4	46	31	9
Mike Aviles	R	32	SS	482	49	117	22	2	10	46	13	6
Lonnie Chisenhall	L	24	3B	469	55	110	23	3	11	53	2	1
Drew Stubbs	R	28	CF	603	77	119	19	3	14	47	33	8
Cord Phelps	B	26	2B	601	63	133	27	4	10	56	6	6
Mark Reynolds	R	29	3B	578	71	105	24	1	26	74	6	4
Yan Gomes	R	25	C	392	36	83	21	1	10	46	2	0
Casey Kotchman	L	30	1B	498	46	119	20	1	11	57	2	1
Nate Spears	L	28	3B	458	50	93	20	3	9	41	6	2
Lou Marson	R	27	C	331	36	65	14	2	2	24	6	2
Juan Diaz	B	24	SS	581	55	125	23	3	9	54	5	3
Grady Sizemore	L	30	CF	238	30	50	12	2	7	30	4	3
Ryan Rohlinger	R	29	3B	440	42	86	17	1	7	40	2	2
Luis Hernandez	B	29	SS	506	42	112	18	4	5	43	6	3
Ryan Raburn	R	32	2B	361	38	77	20	1	10	35	2	2
Tim Fedroff	L	26	LF	575	64	131	22	5	5	47	8	5
Chad Huffman	R	28	RF	419	40	86	22	1	8	38	3	1
Chris McGuiness	L	25	1B	462	39	92	19	0	11	46	1	2
Jeremy Hermida	L	29	RF	339	33	71	14	1	8	33	2	0
Matt LaPorta	R	28	1B	491	51	107	22	1	14	55	1	2
Mike McDade	B	24	1B	577	54	128	23	1	14	53	1	0
Michel Hernandez	R	34	C	190	17	39	8	0	2	18	1	1
Matt Carson	R	31	RF	497	53	106	27	1	14	49	9	3
Cedric Hunter	L	25	LF	497	54	112	22	4	4	44	8	4
Omir Santos	R	32	C	204	15	44	9	1	2	17	0	0
Ben Francisco	R	31	LF	269	24	57	14	1	5	26	4	2
Jesus Aguilar	R	23	1B	573	59	119	26	1	15	62	1	1
Brian Jeroloman	L	28	C	285	22	46	7	0	2	15	1	1
Chun-Hsiu Chen	R	24	1B	511	49	108	25	2	9	49	4	2
Jason Giambi	L	41	1B	125	10	22	4	0	4	13	0	0
Vinny Rottino	R	33	RF	503	57	113	22	2	6	48	12	5

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	BA	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Carlos Santana	600	15.0%	19.2%	.187	.280	.248	.362	.435	.343
Michael Bourn	689	8.4%	20.3%	.096	.333	.266	.330	.362	.309
Asdrubal Cabrera	642	7.3%	16.7%	.151	.305	.271	.331	.422	.325
Jason Kipnis	609	8.7%	19.2%	.144	.300	.256	.325	.400	.318
Michael Brantley	641	8.1%	11.5%	.107	.302	.275	.333	.382	.308
Nick Swisher	592	12.0%	22.6%	.174	.301	.251	.344	.425	.333
Ezequiel Carrera	593	6.2%	17.2%	.080	.320	.265	.316	.345	.291
Mike Aviles	482	3.9%	14.3%	.124	.282	.258	.288	.382	.290
Lonnie Chisenhall	469	5.8%	19.2%	.143	.296	.255	.305	.398	.305
Drew Stubbs	603	8.5%	31.3%	.124	.309	.220	.291	.344	.285
Cord Phelps	601	8.3%	20.6%	.119	.298	.244	.310	.363	.295
Mark Reynolds	578	12.6%	33.6%	.210	.284	.212	.320	.422	.322
Yan Gomes	392	5.4%	28.8%	.146	.299	.229	.276	.375	.284
Casey Kotchman	498	6.8%	10.8%	.121	.276	.263	.322	.384	.305
Nate Spears	458	8.3%	22.1%	.129	.276	.226	.296	.355	.287
Lou Marson	331	11.2%	21.8%	.083	.292	.225	.316	.308	.284
Juan Diaz	581	4.5%	26.7%	.102	.301	.228	.265	.330	.259
Grady Sizemore	238	7.6%	24.8%	.172	.285	.233	.298	.405	.305
Ryan Rohlinger	440	7.7%	20.0%	.102	.262	.219	.287	.321	.267
Luis Hernandez	506	4.0%	17.4%	.087	.278	.237	.269	.324	.256
Ryan Raburn	361	5.8%	26.3%	.157	.293	.232	.284	.389	.289
Tim Fedroff	575	8.0%	20.2%	.090	.313	.252	.313	.342	.288
Chad Huffman	419	8.1%	25.1%	.127	.293	.228	.299	.355	.289
Chris McGuiness	462	9.7%	26.4%	.127	.288	.223	.303	.350	.287
Jeremy Hermida	339	8.0%	27.7%	.131	.304	.231	.298	.362	.291
Matt LaPorta	491	7.3%	21.6%	.149	.283	.240	.303	.389	.301
Mike McDade	577	5.2%	27.0%	.124	.307	.238	.284	.362	.280
Michel Hernandez	190	6.3%	14.2%	.081	.253	.224	.280	.305	.260
Matt Carson	497	5.0%	26.4%	.153	.287	.229	.274	.382	.285
Cedric Hunter	497	6.8%	11.1%	.093	.271	.247	.302	.340	.278
Omir Santos	204	2.0%	20.1%	.088	.275	.228	.248	.316	.243
Ben Francisco	269	7.8%	19.3%	.128	.278	.236	.302	.364	.293
Jesus Aguilar	573	7.2%	28.4%	.140	.301	.229	.293	.369	.290
Brian Jeroloman	285	9.8%	34.0%	.052	.289	.184	.273	.236	.232
Chun-Hsiu Chen	511	7.8%	28.6%	.121	.317	.233	.296	.354	.286
Jason Giambi	125	12.8%	31.2%	.150	.281	.208	.320	.358	.300
Vinny Rottino	503	6.8%	15.3%	.096	.280	.245	.297	.341	.278

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	WAR	No.1 Comp
Carlos Santana	600	5.6	124	-3	4.4	Darrell Porter
Michael Bourn	689	4.8	96	12	4.0	Vince Coleman
Asdrubal Cabrera	642	5.2	111	-4	3.7	Johnny Logan
Jason Kipnis	609	4.9	104	0	3.0	Felipe Lopez
Michael Brantley	641	4.8	102	-1	2.5	Jeremy Reed
Nick Swisher	592	5.2	116	1	2.5	Chili Davis
Ezequiel Carrera	593	4.3	87	4	2.1	Alex Sanchez
Mike Aviles	482	4.0	88	4	2.1	Billy Martin
Lonnie Chisenhall	469	4.4	97	2	2.0	Scott Cooper
Drew Stubbs	603	3.8	79	2	1.6	Chris Latham
Cord Phelps	601	3.9	90	-1	1.5	Ron Oester
Mark Reynolds	578	4.6	108	-17	1.1	Mike Hessman
Yan Gomes	392	3.7	82	-3	1.0	Brian Dorsett
Casey Kotchman	498	4.5	99	1	1.0	Jim Bowie
Nate Spears	458	3.7	83	-1	1.0	Alan Lewis
Lou Marson	331	3.5	78	-2	0.8	Joe Lawrence
Juan Diaz	581	3.0	67	0	0.8	Jeff Moronko
Grady Sizemore	238	4.2	97	0	0.7	Ricky Ledee
Ryan Rohlinger	440	3.1	72	2	0.6	Keith Johns
Luis Hernandez	506	3.1	67	-1	0.6	Frank Kellner
Ryan Raburn	361	3.8	88	-4	0.5	Chris Truby
Tim Fedroff	575	3.8	86	1	0.4	Bruce Fields
Chad Huffman	419	3.8	84	1	0.4	Carlos Sosa
Chris McGuiness	462	3.6	84	4	0.4	Steve Carver
Jeremy Hermida	339	3.9	86	-1	0.3	Orsino Hill
Matt LaPorta	491	4.1	94	-3	0.3	Brick Smith
Mike McDade	577	3.7	81	3	0.3	Tim Giles
Michel Hernandez	190	2.9	66	-1	0.2	Chad Moeller
Matt Carson	497	3.7	83	-2	0.2	Scott Morgan
Cedric Hunter	497	3.7	81	-1	0.1	Cliff Gonzalez
Omir Santos	204	2.7	58	-1	0.0	Charlie Greene
Ben Francisco	269	3.9	87	-2	0.0	Jim Vatcher
Jesus Aguilar	573	3.8	86	-2	0.0	Joe Vitiello
Brian Jeroloman	285	2.1	46	0	-0.1	Joe Hietpas
Chun-Hsiu Chen	511	3.7	83	-2	-0.2	Brandon Moss
Jason Giambi	125	3.9	92	-4	-0.2	Matt Stairs
Vinny Rottino	503	3.7	80	-5	-0.4	P.J. Forbes

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	SO	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Brett Myers	R	32	28	28	178.0	122	44	22	189	90	84
Justin Masterson	R	28	32	31	193.3	147	71	16	199	100	93
Ubaldo Jimenez	R	29	30	30	181.3	163	85	18	175	94	88
Trevor Bauer	R	22	24	24	127.3	134	74	15	119	67	63
Vinnie Pestano	R	28	67	0	63.7	73	23	6	54	25	23
T.J. House	L	23	27	27	138.3	91	54	15	149	79	74
Chris Perez	R	27	64	0	59.0	56	22	6	53	27	25
Joe Smith	R	29	71	0	61.7	48	26	5	58	29	27
Danny Salazar	R	23	20	20	87.0	62	36	10	93	50	47
Bryan Shaw	R	25	72	0	68.3	51	25	7	71	34	32
Rich Hill	L	33	31	0	27.3	29	12	3	25	13	12
Josh Tomlin	R	28	23	20	124.7	71	30	19	137	75	70
Matt Albers	R	30	60	0	63.0	53	26	7	61	32	30
Cody Allen	R	24	61	0	64.7	60	30	7	63	33	31
Chen-Chang Lee	R	26	27	0	40.7	39	16	5	40	21	20
Matt Capps	R	29	53	0	50.3	33	11	7	54	27	25
Zach McAllister	R	25	29	29	156.7	109	51	21	184	96	90
Blake Wood	R	27	46	0	54.0	42	24	5	55	29	27
Scott Barnes	L	25	33	12	87.7	73	45	11	91	52	49
Nick Hagadone	L	27	42	0	49.3	44	21	6	49	27	25
Preston Guilmet	R	25	48	0	51.3	42	16	7	54	28	26
Matt Langwell	R	27	45	0	65.3	51	35	6	67	35	33
Trey Haley	R	23	28	0	40.0	35	25	4	40	22	21
Carlos Carrasco	R	26	19	19	108.3	71	44	16	118	68	64
Jose Flores	R	24	45	0	51.0	30	23	4	57	30	28
Daisuke Matsuzaka	R	32	18	18	87.3	69	41	14	94	57	53
Frank Herrmann	R	29	53	0	65.7	44	23	9	72	39	36
Giovanni Soto	L	22	21	19	96.7	68	45	14	107	63	59
Corey Kluber	R	27	29	28	154.7	113	74	18	176	100	93
Joe Martinez	R	30	28	20	125.7	69	46	16	152	81	76
Fernando Nieve	R	30	24	14	80.3	55	32	13	93	54	50
Scott Kazmir	L	29	11	11	55.7	37	31	9	63	40	37
Jerry Gil	R	30	55	0	58.3	39	28	8	65	37	35
David Huff	L	28	27	25	140.3	71	51	26	175	104	97

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Brett Myers	178.0	767	15.9%	5.7%	.290	4.25	4.14	107	104
Justin Masterson	193.3	850	17.3%	8.4%	.303	4.33	3.97	109	100
Ubaldo Jimenez	181.3	804	20.3%	10.6%	.296	4.37	4.14	110	104
Trevor Bauer	127.3	575	23.3%	12.9%	.302	4.45	4.51	112	114
Vinnie Pestano	63.7	268	27.2%	8.6%	.294	3.25	3.24	82	82
T.J. House	138.3	618	14.7%	8.7%	.297	4.81	4.59	121	116
Chris Perez	59.0	252	22.2%	8.7%	.285	3.81	3.77	96	95
Joe Smith	61.7	269	17.8%	9.7%	.282	3.94	3.89	99	98
Danny Salazar	87.0	390	15.9%	9.2%	.299	4.86	4.62	123	117
Bryan Shaw	68.3	301	16.9%	8.3%	.299	4.21	4.20	106	106
Rich Hill	27.3	119	24.4%	10.1%	.298	3.95	3.80	100	96
Josh Tomlin	124.7	541	13.1%	5.5%	.283	5.05	4.76	127	120
Matt Albers	63.0	276	19.2%	9.4%	.289	4.29	4.18	108	105
Cody Allen	64.7	287	20.9%	10.4%	.298	4.31	4.16	109	105
Chen-Chang Lee	40.7	178	21.9%	9.0%	.301	4.43	4.11	112	104
Matt Capps	50.3	216	15.3%	5.1%	.287	4.47	4.27	113	108
Zach McAllister	156.7	705	15.5%	7.2%	.315	5.17	4.60	130	116
Blake Wood	54.0	241	17.4%	10.0%	.298	4.50	3.99	113	101
Scott Barnes	87.7	399	18.3%	11.3%	.303	5.03	4.85	127	122
Nick Hagadone	49.3	218	20.2%	9.6%	.297	4.56	4.37	115	110
Preston Guilmet	51.3	224	18.8%	7.1%	.301	4.56	4.42	115	111
Matt Langwell	65.3	298	17.1%	11.7%	.304	4.55	4.60	115	116
Trey Haley	40.0	185	18.9%	13.5%	.305	4.73	4.83	119	122
Carlos Carrasco	108.3	487	14.6%	9.0%	.290	5.32	5.03	134	127
Jose Flores	51.0	233	12.9%	9.9%	.306	4.94	4.49	125	113
Daisuke Matsuzaka	87.3	397	17.4%	10.3%	.299	5.46	5.26	138	133
Frank Herrmann	65.7	292	15.1%	7.9%	.296	4.93	4.76	124	120
Giovanni Soto	96.7	442	15.4%	10.2%	.300	5.49	5.20	138	131
Corey Kluber	154.7	714	15.8%	10.4%	.317	5.41	4.84	136	122
Joe Martinez	125.7	575	12.0%	8.0%	.312	5.44	5.00	137	126
Fernando Nieve	80.3	366	15.0%	8.7%	.307	5.60	5.25	141	132
Scott Kazmir	55.7	261	14.2%	11.9%	.302	5.98	5.89	151	148
Jerry Gil	58.3	268	14.6%	10.5%	.302	5.40	5.22	136	131
David Huff	140.3	647	11.0%	7.9%	.303	6.22	5.79	157	146

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	WAR	No. 1 Comp
Brett Myers	178.0	6.17	2.22	1.11	93	2.0	Aaron Sele
Justin Masterson	193.3	6.84	3.31	0.74	91	2.0	Joey Hamilton
Ubaldo Jimenez	181.3	8.09	4.22	0.89	91	1.8	Bobby Witt
Trevor Bauer	127.3	9.47	5.23	1.06	89	1.1	Octavio Dotel
Vinnie Pestano	63.7	10.31	3.25	0.85	122	0.9	Jose Valverde
T.J. House	138.3	5.92	3.51	0.98	82	0.6	Mike Miller
Chris Perez	59.0	8.54	3.36	0.92	104	0.5	John Riedling
Joe Smith	61.7	7.00	3.79	0.73	100	0.4	Ruddy Lugo
Danny Salazar	87.0	6.41	3.72	1.03	81	0.3	Blake Hawksworth
Bryan Shaw	68.3	6.72	3.29	0.92	94	0.2	Mark Rutherford
Rich Hill	27.3	9.56	3.96	0.99	100	0.2	Rod Scurry
Josh Tomlin	124.7	5.12	2.17	1.37	78	0.1	Louis McCall
Matt Albers	63.0	7.57	3.71	1.00	92	0.1	Doug Bochtler
Cody Allen	64.7	8.35	4.17	0.97	92	0.1	Saul Rivera
Chen-Chang Lee	40.7	8.62	3.54	1.11	89	0.0	Steve Andrade
Matt Capps	50.3	5.90	1.97	1.25	89	0.0	Scott Winchester
Zach McAllister	156.7	6.26	2.93	1.21	77	0.0	Jason Davis
Blake Wood	54.0	7.00	4.00	0.83	88	0.0	Joel Moore
Scott Barnes	87.7	7.49	4.62	1.13	79	0.0	Darren Burroughs
Nick Hagadone	49.3	8.03	3.83	1.10	87	-0.1	Ricardo Jordan
Preston Guilmet	51.3	7.37	2.81	1.23	87	-0.1	Scott Winchester
Matt Langwell	65.3	7.03	4.82	0.83	87	-0.1	George Smith
Trey Haley	40.0	7.88	5.63	0.90	84	-0.1	Josh Banks
Carlos Carrasco	108.3	5.90	3.66	1.33	74	-0.2	Frank Potestio
Jose Flores	51.0	5.29	4.06	0.71	80	-0.3	Bob Miller
Daisuke Matsuzaka	87.3	7.11	4.23	1.44	72	-0.3	Chan Ho Park
Frank Herrmann	65.7	6.03	3.15	1.23	80	-0.4	Bob Wells
Giovanni Soto	96.7	6.33	4.19	1.30	72	-0.4	Tim Rumer
Corey Kluber	154.7	6.57	4.31	1.05	73	-0.5	Zacarias Paris
Joe Martinez	125.7	4.94	3.29	1.15	73	-0.5	Dennis Tankersley
Fernando Nieve	80.3	6.16	3.59	1.46	71	-0.5	Julio Manon
Scott Kazmir	55.7	5.98	5.01	1.45	66	-0.6	Dan Smith
Jerry Gil	58.3	6.02	4.32	1.23	73	-0.7	Jamie Emiliano
David Huff	140.3	4.55	3.27	1.67	64	-1.8	Huck Flener

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.09 ERA and the NL having a 3.92 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected WAR.