- FanGraphs Baseball - http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs -

2013 ZiPS Projections – Cleveland Indians

Posted By Carson Cistulli On February 14, 2013 @ 8:00 am In 2013 ZiPS Projections,Featured,Indians | 39 Comments

Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, are being released at FanGraphs this year. Below are the projections for the Cleveland Indians. Szymborski can be found on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other 2013 Projections: Angels / Astros / Athletics / Blue Jays / Braves / Brewers / Cardinals / Cubs / Diamondbacks / Dodgers / Giants / Mariners / Marlins / Mets / Nationals / Orioles / Padres / Phillies / Pirates / Rangers / Rays / Reds / Red Sox / Rockies / Royals / Tigers / Twins / White Sox / Yankees.

Batters
If you’re like the author, you’re hirsute in a way that make pets and small children demonstrably uncomfortable. You’re also a bit surprised by the competence of the Indians offense entering 2013. No Cleveland field player posted better than a 3.4 WAR in 2012; in fact, there are three players here — Carlos Santana (4.4), Michael Bourn (4.0), and Asdrubal Cabrera (3.7) — projected to surpass last year’s team-high mark. Six other players are forecast to post something between a 2.0 and 3.0 WAR.

A thing to note: both Michael Brantley and Drew Stubbs are projected as center fielders, where each spent the majority of 2012 defensively. Moving to the corners won’t affect their individual WAR projections, likely, but does mean that what they lose in runs to positional adjustment, they’re likely to regain in terms of runs saved afield. If we say that Brantley and Stubbs are roughly average center fielders, then it’s also fair to say they’re likely to save something like +10 runs defensively in either left or right field.

Pitchers
With regard to the Cleveland rotation, the author defers to SB Nation’s Grant Brisbee, who offered the following Precision Analysis shortly after inspecting the depth chart included further down in this post.

So far as the bullpen is concerned, Cleveland has a few reliable high-leverage arms in Chris Perez, Vinnie Pestano, and Joe Smith. After that triumvirate, however, the options are unclear. Left-hander Rich Hill, whom the club signed last week, has managed only 31.2 major-league innings since 2010, but has been quite good during them, striking out 36 batters. No other pitcher besides the four just mentioned receives a park-adjusted ERA or FIP projection better than league average.

Bench/Prospects
Outfielder Ezequiel Carrera enters his age-26 season — and, while his offensive ceiling is probably limited, ZiPS suggests that he defends and runs well enough to produce something not unlike an average major-league season. Twice ranked (in 2008 and -09) among the game’s top-30 prospects by Baseball America, a now 28-year-old Matt LaPorta enters the season with a career line of .238/.301/.393 (.276 BABIP) in 1068 major-league plate appearances. Nor does ZiPS forecast any sort of great departure from that level in 2013.

Depth Chart
Here’s a rough depth chart for the Indians, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player (click to embiggen):

Indians Depth

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Credit to MLB Depth Charts for roster information.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Carlos Santana B 27 C 600 76 124 29 2 20 78 4 3
Michael Bourn L 30 CF 689 91 165 26 8 6 49 46 13
Asdrubal Cabrera B 27 SS 642 78 157 33 2 17 73 12 5
Jason Kipnis L 26 2B 609 80 139 24 6 14 71 18 4
Michael Brantley L 26 CF 641 78 159 31 5 7 57 19 7
Nick Swisher B 32 RF 592 66 128 30 1 19 71 1 2
Ezequiel Carrera L 26 CF 593 70 143 19 6 4 46 31 9
Mike Aviles R 32 SS 482 49 117 22 2 10 46 13 6
Lonnie Chisenhall L 24 3B 469 55 110 23 3 11 53 2 1
Drew Stubbs R 28 CF 603 77 119 19 3 14 47 33 8
Cord Phelps B 26 2B 601 63 133 27 4 10 56 6 6
Mark Reynolds R 29 3B 578 71 105 24 1 26 74 6 4
Yan Gomes R 25 C 392 36 83 21 1 10 46 2 0
Casey Kotchman L 30 1B 498 46 119 20 1 11 57 2 1
Nate Spears L 28 3B 458 50 93 20 3 9 41 6 2
Lou Marson R 27 C 331 36 65 14 2 2 24 6 2
Juan Diaz B 24 SS 581 55 125 23 3 9 54 5 3
Grady Sizemore L 30 CF 238 30 50 12 2 7 30 4 3
Ryan Rohlinger R 29 3B 440 42 86 17 1 7 40 2 2
Luis Hernandez B 29 SS 506 42 112 18 4 5 43 6 3
Ryan Raburn R 32 2B 361 38 77 20 1 10 35 2 2
Tim Fedroff L 26 LF 575 64 131 22 5 5 47 8 5
Chad Huffman R 28 RF 419 40 86 22 1 8 38 3 1
Chris McGuiness L 25 1B 462 39 92 19 0 11 46 1 2
Jeremy Hermida L 29 RF 339 33 71 14 1 8 33 2 0
Matt LaPorta R 28 1B 491 51 107 22 1 14 55 1 2
Mike McDade B 24 1B 577 54 128 23 1 14 53 1 0
Michel Hernandez R 34 C 190 17 39 8 0 2 18 1 1
Matt Carson R 31 RF 497 53 106 27 1 14 49 9 3
Cedric Hunter L 25 LF 497 54 112 22 4 4 44 8 4
Omir Santos R 32 C 204 15 44 9 1 2 17 0 0
Ben Francisco R 31 LF 269 24 57 14 1 5 26 4 2
Jesus Aguilar R 23 1B 573 59 119 26 1 15 62 1 1
Brian Jeroloman L 28 C 285 22 46 7 0 2 15 1 1
Chun-Hsiu Chen R 24 1B 511 49 108 25 2 9 49 4 2
Jason Giambi L 41 1B 125 10 22 4 0 4 13 0 0
Vinny Rottino R 33 RF 503 57 113 22 2 6 48 12 5

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP BA OBP SLG wOBA
Carlos Santana 600 15.0% 19.2% .187 .280 .248 .362 .435 .343
Michael Bourn 689 8.4% 20.3% .096 .333 .266 .330 .362 .309
Asdrubal Cabrera 642 7.3% 16.7% .151 .305 .271 .331 .422 .325
Jason Kipnis 609 8.7% 19.2% .144 .300 .256 .325 .400 .318
Michael Brantley 641 8.1% 11.5% .107 .302 .275 .333 .382 .308
Nick Swisher 592 12.0% 22.6% .174 .301 .251 .344 .425 .333
Ezequiel Carrera 593 6.2% 17.2% .080 .320 .265 .316 .345 .291
Mike Aviles 482 3.9% 14.3% .124 .282 .258 .288 .382 .290
Lonnie Chisenhall 469 5.8% 19.2% .143 .296 .255 .305 .398 .305
Drew Stubbs 603 8.5% 31.3% .124 .309 .220 .291 .344 .285
Cord Phelps 601 8.3% 20.6% .119 .298 .244 .310 .363 .295
Mark Reynolds 578 12.6% 33.6% .210 .284 .212 .320 .422 .322
Yan Gomes 392 5.4% 28.8% .146 .299 .229 .276 .375 .284
Casey Kotchman 498 6.8% 10.8% .121 .276 .263 .322 .384 .305
Nate Spears 458 8.3% 22.1% .129 .276 .226 .296 .355 .287
Lou Marson 331 11.2% 21.8% .083 .292 .225 .316 .308 .284
Juan Diaz 581 4.5% 26.7% .102 .301 .228 .265 .330 .259
Grady Sizemore 238 7.6% 24.8% .172 .285 .233 .298 .405 .305
Ryan Rohlinger 440 7.7% 20.0% .102 .262 .219 .287 .321 .267
Luis Hernandez 506 4.0% 17.4% .087 .278 .237 .269 .324 .256
Ryan Raburn 361 5.8% 26.3% .157 .293 .232 .284 .389 .289
Tim Fedroff 575 8.0% 20.2% .090 .313 .252 .313 .342 .288
Chad Huffman 419 8.1% 25.1% .127 .293 .228 .299 .355 .289
Chris McGuiness 462 9.7% 26.4% .127 .288 .223 .303 .350 .287
Jeremy Hermida 339 8.0% 27.7% .131 .304 .231 .298 .362 .291
Matt LaPorta 491 7.3% 21.6% .149 .283 .240 .303 .389 .301
Mike McDade 577 5.2% 27.0% .124 .307 .238 .284 .362 .280
Michel Hernandez 190 6.3% 14.2% .081 .253 .224 .280 .305 .260
Matt Carson 497 5.0% 26.4% .153 .287 .229 .274 .382 .285
Cedric Hunter 497 6.8% 11.1% .093 .271 .247 .302 .340 .278
Omir Santos 204 2.0% 20.1% .088 .275 .228 .248 .316 .243
Ben Francisco 269 7.8% 19.3% .128 .278 .236 .302 .364 .293
Jesus Aguilar 573 7.2% 28.4% .140 .301 .229 .293 .369 .290
Brian Jeroloman 285 9.8% 34.0% .052 .289 .184 .273 .236 .232
Chun-Hsiu Chen 511 7.8% 28.6% .121 .317 .233 .296 .354 .286
Jason Giambi 125 12.8% 31.2% .150 .281 .208 .320 .358 .300
Vinny Rottino 503 6.8% 15.3% .096 .280 .245 .297 .341 .278

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def WAR No.1 Comp
Carlos Santana 600 5.6 124 -3 4.4 Darrell Porter
Michael Bourn 689 4.8 96 12 4.0 Vince Coleman
Asdrubal Cabrera 642 5.2 111 -4 3.7 Johnny Logan
Jason Kipnis 609 4.9 104 0 3.0 Felipe Lopez
Michael Brantley 641 4.8 102 -1 2.5 Jeremy Reed
Nick Swisher 592 5.2 116 1 2.5 Chili Davis
Ezequiel Carrera 593 4.3 87 4 2.1 Alex Sanchez
Mike Aviles 482 4.0 88 4 2.1 Billy Martin
Lonnie Chisenhall 469 4.4 97 2 2.0 Scott Cooper
Drew Stubbs 603 3.8 79 2 1.6 Chris Latham
Cord Phelps 601 3.9 90 -1 1.5 Ron Oester
Mark Reynolds 578 4.6 108 -17 1.1 Mike Hessman
Yan Gomes 392 3.7 82 -3 1.0 Brian Dorsett
Casey Kotchman 498 4.5 99 1 1.0 Jim Bowie
Nate Spears 458 3.7 83 -1 1.0 Alan Lewis
Lou Marson 331 3.5 78 -2 0.8 Joe Lawrence
Juan Diaz 581 3.0 67 0 0.8 Jeff Moronko
Grady Sizemore 238 4.2 97 0 0.7 Ricky Ledee
Ryan Rohlinger 440 3.1 72 2 0.6 Keith Johns
Luis Hernandez 506 3.1 67 -1 0.6 Frank Kellner
Ryan Raburn 361 3.8 88 -4 0.5 Chris Truby
Tim Fedroff 575 3.8 86 1 0.4 Bruce Fields
Chad Huffman 419 3.8 84 1 0.4 Carlos Sosa
Chris McGuiness 462 3.6 84 4 0.4 Steve Carver
Jeremy Hermida 339 3.9 86 -1 0.3 Orsino Hill
Matt LaPorta 491 4.1 94 -3 0.3 Brick Smith
Mike McDade 577 3.7 81 3 0.3 Tim Giles
Michel Hernandez 190 2.9 66 -1 0.2 Chad Moeller
Matt Carson 497 3.7 83 -2 0.2 Scott Morgan
Cedric Hunter 497 3.7 81 -1 0.1 Cliff Gonzalez
Omir Santos 204 2.7 58 -1 0.0 Charlie Greene
Ben Francisco 269 3.9 87 -2 0.0 Jim Vatcher
Jesus Aguilar 573 3.8 86 -2 0.0 Joe Vitiello
Brian Jeroloman 285 2.1 46 0 -0.1 Joe Hietpas
Chun-Hsiu Chen 511 3.7 83 -2 -0.2 Brandon Moss
Jason Giambi 125 3.9 92 -4 -0.2 Matt Stairs
Vinny Rottino 503 3.7 80 -5 -0.4 P.J. Forbes

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player T Age G GS IP SO BB HR H R ER
Brett Myers R 32 28 28 178.0 122 44 22 189 90 84
Justin Masterson R 28 32 31 193.3 147 71 16 199 100 93
Ubaldo Jimenez R 29 30 30 181.3 163 85 18 175 94 88
Trevor Bauer R 22 24 24 127.3 134 74 15 119 67 63
Vinnie Pestano R 28 67 0 63.7 73 23 6 54 25 23
T.J. House L 23 27 27 138.3 91 54 15 149 79 74
Chris Perez R 27 64 0 59.0 56 22 6 53 27 25
Joe Smith R 29 71 0 61.7 48 26 5 58 29 27
Danny Salazar R 23 20 20 87.0 62 36 10 93 50 47
Bryan Shaw R 25 72 0 68.3 51 25 7 71 34 32
Rich Hill L 33 31 0 27.3 29 12 3 25 13 12
Josh Tomlin R 28 23 20 124.7 71 30 19 137 75 70
Matt Albers R 30 60 0 63.0 53 26 7 61 32 30
Cody Allen R 24 61 0 64.7 60 30 7 63 33 31
Chen-Chang Lee R 26 27 0 40.7 39 16 5 40 21 20
Matt Capps R 29 53 0 50.3 33 11 7 54 27 25
Zach McAllister R 25 29 29 156.7 109 51 21 184 96 90
Blake Wood R 27 46 0 54.0 42 24 5 55 29 27
Scott Barnes L 25 33 12 87.7 73 45 11 91 52 49
Nick Hagadone L 27 42 0 49.3 44 21 6 49 27 25
Preston Guilmet R 25 48 0 51.3 42 16 7 54 28 26
Matt Langwell R 27 45 0 65.3 51 35 6 67 35 33
Trey Haley R 23 28 0 40.0 35 25 4 40 22 21
Carlos Carrasco R 26 19 19 108.3 71 44 16 118 68 64
Jose Flores R 24 45 0 51.0 30 23 4 57 30 28
Daisuke Matsuzaka R 32 18 18 87.3 69 41 14 94 57 53
Frank Herrmann R 29 53 0 65.7 44 23 9 72 39 36
Giovanni Soto L 22 21 19 96.7 68 45 14 107 63 59
Corey Kluber R 27 29 28 154.7 113 74 18 176 100 93
Joe Martinez R 30 28 20 125.7 69 46 16 152 81 76
Fernando Nieve R 30 24 14 80.3 55 32 13 93 54 50
Scott Kazmir L 29 11 11 55.7 37 31 9 63 40 37
Jerry Gil R 30 55 0 58.3 39 28 8 65 37 35
David Huff L 28 27 25 140.3 71 51 26 175 104 97

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Brett Myers 178.0 767 15.9% 5.7% .290 4.25 4.14 107 104
Justin Masterson 193.3 850 17.3% 8.4% .303 4.33 3.97 109 100
Ubaldo Jimenez 181.3 804 20.3% 10.6% .296 4.37 4.14 110 104
Trevor Bauer 127.3 575 23.3% 12.9% .302 4.45 4.51 112 114
Vinnie Pestano 63.7 268 27.2% 8.6% .294 3.25 3.24 82 82
T.J. House 138.3 618 14.7% 8.7% .297 4.81 4.59 121 116
Chris Perez 59.0 252 22.2% 8.7% .285 3.81 3.77 96 95
Joe Smith 61.7 269 17.8% 9.7% .282 3.94 3.89 99 98
Danny Salazar 87.0 390 15.9% 9.2% .299 4.86 4.62 123 117
Bryan Shaw 68.3 301 16.9% 8.3% .299 4.21 4.20 106 106
Rich Hill 27.3 119 24.4% 10.1% .298 3.95 3.80 100 96
Josh Tomlin 124.7 541 13.1% 5.5% .283 5.05 4.76 127 120
Matt Albers 63.0 276 19.2% 9.4% .289 4.29 4.18 108 105
Cody Allen 64.7 287 20.9% 10.4% .298 4.31 4.16 109 105
Chen-Chang Lee 40.7 178 21.9% 9.0% .301 4.43 4.11 112 104
Matt Capps 50.3 216 15.3% 5.1% .287 4.47 4.27 113 108
Zach McAllister 156.7 705 15.5% 7.2% .315 5.17 4.60 130 116
Blake Wood 54.0 241 17.4% 10.0% .298 4.50 3.99 113 101
Scott Barnes 87.7 399 18.3% 11.3% .303 5.03 4.85 127 122
Nick Hagadone 49.3 218 20.2% 9.6% .297 4.56 4.37 115 110
Preston Guilmet 51.3 224 18.8% 7.1% .301 4.56 4.42 115 111
Matt Langwell 65.3 298 17.1% 11.7% .304 4.55 4.60 115 116
Trey Haley 40.0 185 18.9% 13.5% .305 4.73 4.83 119 122
Carlos Carrasco 108.3 487 14.6% 9.0% .290 5.32 5.03 134 127
Jose Flores 51.0 233 12.9% 9.9% .306 4.94 4.49 125 113
Daisuke Matsuzaka 87.3 397 17.4% 10.3% .299 5.46 5.26 138 133
Frank Herrmann 65.7 292 15.1% 7.9% .296 4.93 4.76 124 120
Giovanni Soto 96.7 442 15.4% 10.2% .300 5.49 5.20 138 131
Corey Kluber 154.7 714 15.8% 10.4% .317 5.41 4.84 136 122
Joe Martinez 125.7 575 12.0% 8.0% .312 5.44 5.00 137 126
Fernando Nieve 80.3 366 15.0% 8.7% .307 5.60 5.25 141 132
Scott Kazmir 55.7 261 14.2% 11.9% .302 5.98 5.89 151 148
Jerry Gil 58.3 268 14.6% 10.5% .302 5.40 5.22 136 131
David Huff 140.3 647 11.0% 7.9% .303 6.22 5.79 157 146

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ WAR No. 1 Comp
Brett Myers 178.0 6.17 2.22 1.11 93 2.0 Aaron Sele
Justin Masterson 193.3 6.84 3.31 0.74 91 2.0 Joey Hamilton
Ubaldo Jimenez 181.3 8.09 4.22 0.89 91 1.8 Bobby Witt
Trevor Bauer 127.3 9.47 5.23 1.06 89 1.1 Octavio Dotel
Vinnie Pestano 63.7 10.31 3.25 0.85 122 0.9 Jose Valverde
T.J. House 138.3 5.92 3.51 0.98 82 0.6 Mike Miller
Chris Perez 59.0 8.54 3.36 0.92 104 0.5 John Riedling
Joe Smith 61.7 7.00 3.79 0.73 100 0.4 Ruddy Lugo
Danny Salazar 87.0 6.41 3.72 1.03 81 0.3 Blake Hawksworth
Bryan Shaw 68.3 6.72 3.29 0.92 94 0.2 Mark Rutherford
Rich Hill 27.3 9.56 3.96 0.99 100 0.2 Rod Scurry
Josh Tomlin 124.7 5.12 2.17 1.37 78 0.1 Louis McCall
Matt Albers 63.0 7.57 3.71 1.00 92 0.1 Doug Bochtler
Cody Allen 64.7 8.35 4.17 0.97 92 0.1 Saul Rivera
Chen-Chang Lee 40.7 8.62 3.54 1.11 89 0.0 Steve Andrade
Matt Capps 50.3 5.90 1.97 1.25 89 0.0 Scott Winchester
Zach McAllister 156.7 6.26 2.93 1.21 77 0.0 Jason Davis
Blake Wood 54.0 7.00 4.00 0.83 88 0.0 Joel Moore
Scott Barnes 87.7 7.49 4.62 1.13 79 0.0 Darren Burroughs
Nick Hagadone 49.3 8.03 3.83 1.10 87 -0.1 Ricardo Jordan
Preston Guilmet 51.3 7.37 2.81 1.23 87 -0.1 Scott Winchester
Matt Langwell 65.3 7.03 4.82 0.83 87 -0.1 George Smith
Trey Haley 40.0 7.88 5.63 0.90 84 -0.1 Josh Banks
Carlos Carrasco 108.3 5.90 3.66 1.33 74 -0.2 Frank Potestio
Jose Flores 51.0 5.29 4.06 0.71 80 -0.3 Bob Miller
Daisuke Matsuzaka 87.3 7.11 4.23 1.44 72 -0.3 Chan Ho Park
Frank Herrmann 65.7 6.03 3.15 1.23 80 -0.4 Bob Wells
Giovanni Soto 96.7 6.33 4.19 1.30 72 -0.4 Tim Rumer
Corey Kluber 154.7 6.57 4.31 1.05 73 -0.5 Zacarias Paris
Joe Martinez 125.7 4.94 3.29 1.15 73 -0.5 Dennis Tankersley
Fernando Nieve 80.3 6.16 3.59 1.46 71 -0.5 Julio Manon
Scott Kazmir 55.7 5.98 5.01 1.45 66 -0.6 Dan Smith
Jerry Gil 58.3 6.02 4.32 1.23 73 -0.7 Jamie Emiliano
David Huff 140.3 4.55 3.27 1.67 64 -1.8 Huck Flener

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.09 ERA and the NL having a 3.92 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected WAR.


Article printed from FanGraphs Baseball: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs

URL to article: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2013-zips-projections-cleveland-indians/

Copyright © 2009 FanGraphs Baseball. All rights reserved.