- FanGraphs Baseball - http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs -

2013 ZiPS Projections – Los Angeles Angels

Posted By Carson Cistulli On January 7, 2013 @ 8:00 am In 2013 ZiPS Projections,Angels,Featured | 39 Comments

Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, are being released at FanGraphs this year. Below are the projections for the Los Angeles Angels of You-Know-Where. Szymborski can be found on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other 2013 Projections: Astros / Athletics / Cubs / Giants / Nationals / Phillies / Rangers.

Batters
It’s impossible to ignore the very optimistic projection for 2012′s Champion of WAR, Mike Trout — so, let’s not. While an eight-win season is certainly aggressive so far as a forecast is concerned — if for no other reason than only two or three players surpass the eight-win threshold per year — it’s also the case that ZiPS is being at least somewhat conservative with regard to Trout, forecasting him to hit fewer home runs, steal fewer bases, post a considerably lower BABIP, and save fewer runs afield in 2013 than in 2012.

Otherwise, the Angels are almost uniformly above average: with the exception of Mark Trumbo, every starter is projected to post a (rounded) WAR of 3.0 or greater.

Pitchers
Because the author isn’t particularly great at his job, he’s failed to ask Dan Szymborksi what the record might be among starting pitchers for the projected difference between their ERA-minuses and FIP-minuses. In any case, Jered Weaver‘s difference of 10 points (77 ERA-, 87 FIP-) must be close — and is greater, for example, than Matt Cain‘s eight-point separation (78 ERA-, 86 FIP-) by that same measure, despite Cain’s own reputation for preventing runs above and beyond his defense-independent metrics.

Missing the entirety of the 2012 season predictably suppresses likely closer Ryan Madson‘s innings projection to 42 — despite the fact that he’s never thrown fewer than 53 innings during any season in which he’s been actually healthy. If he returns to his previous form, however, ZiPS foresees him being quite capable of throwing quality high-leverage innings.

Bench/Prospects
According to Cot’s Contracts, outfielder Vernon Wells is expected to make just under $25 million in both 2013 and ’14. That’s a lot to pay a bench player, but that appears to be what role Wells is most likely to fill in 2013. Somewhat troubling is ZiPS’ assessment of right-hander Garrett Richards, who, despite sitting in the mid-90s with his fastball, has yet to prove that his stuff will translate to the major-league level.

Depth Chart
Here’s a rough depth chart for the Angels, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player (click to embiggen):

Angels Depth

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Credit to MLB Depth Charts for roster information.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Mike Trout R 21 CF 695 122 171 28 11 29 83 47 8
Albert Pujols R 33 1B 638 88 161 37 0 31 94 10 2
Josh Hamilton L 32 LF 584 73 140 28 3 26 86 7 2
Erick Aybar B 29 SS 601 72 153 29 6 8 48 23 6
Howie Kendrick R 29 2B 614 68 155 32 4 12 70 14 6
Peter Bourjos R 26 CF 471 63 106 17 8 10 47 18 6
Alberto Callaspo B 30 3B 553 58 132 23 1 10 55 5 2
Mark Trumbo R 27 LF 596 67 146 24 2 31 94 6 5
Chris Iannetta R 30 C 333 33 63 10 1 11 37 2 2
Vernon Wells R 34 LF 449 53 104 20 2 17 52 7 3
Hank Conger B 25 C 409 39 90 17 1 8 41 1 1
Luis Jimenez R 25 3B 588 61 137 35 3 12 69 13 7
Tommy Field R 26 SS 550 47 103 20 3 8 42 6 3
Kole Calhoun L 25 RF 557 59 118 25 4 12 58 11 4
Andrew Romine L 27 SS 494 48 104 11 4 3 31 17 8
Travis Witherspoon R 24 CF 573 56 111 17 3 11 43 24 10
Angel Sanchez R 29 SS 428 45 95 14 2 2 37 4 2
Luis Rodriguez B 33 2B 330 34 74 13 1 5 34 3 4
John Hester R 29 C 302 33 61 12 1 6 26 2 2
Luke Carlin B 32 C 262 27 50 8 0 3 22 1 1
Scott Cousins L 28 RF 345 38 71 13 3 6 31 9 4
Trent Oeltjen L 30 RF 458 48 94 18 5 8 43 13 6
J.B. Shuck L 26 LF 520 57 115 14 5 0 32 12 8
Paul McAnulty L 32 1B 481 44 93 22 1 14 51 1 2
Brendan Harris R 32 3B 464 39 94 21 2 5 36 1 2
Efren Navarro L 27 1B 597 57 133 27 2 6 51 3 3
Doug Deeds L 32 LF 369 34 74 17 3 5 28 4 3
Matt Young L 30 RF 488 55 94 16 4 2 25 16 6

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP BA OBP SLG wOBA
Mike Trout 695 10.2% 20.7% .225 .322 .282 .361 .507 .378
Albert Pujols 638 9.9% 11.3% .231 .278 .285 .359 .516 .354
Josh Hamilton 584 8.2% 22.3% .214 .303 .267 .329 .481 .335
Erick Aybar 601 4.7% 11.5% .117 .301 .276 .316 .393 .308
Howie Kendrick 614 4.9% 17.8% .133 .316 .272 .314 .405 .309
Peter Bourjos 471 5.7% 21.7% .148 .302 .248 .302 .396 .302
Alberto Callaspo 553 8.9% 9.6% .111 .278 .265 .330 .376 .307
Mark Trumbo 596 5.7% 24.2% .218 .300 .263 .309 .481 .333
Chris Iannetta 333 12.9% 24.0% .160 .269 .224 .334 .384 .314
Vernon Wells 449 5.3% 14.9% .178 .257 .248 .290 .426 .308
Hank Conger 409 7.3% 18.3% .115 .282 .243 .300 .358 .285
Luis Jimenez 588 3.1% 16.7% .139 .277 .247 .274 .386 .282
Tommy Field 550 7.3% 25.3% .102 .273 .209 .279 .311 .261
Kole Calhoun 557 7.5% 23.0% .136 .286 .232 .294 .368 .292
Andrew Romine 494 6.3% 19.2% .063 .287 .232 .287 .295 .256
Travis Witherspoon 573 6.6% 27.6% .106 .277 .210 .267 .316 .261
Angel Sanchez 428 6.5% 12.4% .062 .278 .245 .298 .307 .264
Luis Rodriguez 330 8.2% 11.2% .102 .270 .251 .317 .353 .291
John Hester 302 6.6% 26.8% .116 .288 .221 .277 .337 .266
Luke Carlin 262 10.3% 20.2% .074 .266 .216 .299 .290 .264
Scott Cousins 345 5.8% 26.4% .116 .290 .223 .271 .339 .263
Trent Oeltjen 458 6.3% 28.6% .126 .308 .227 .285 .353 .273
J.B. Shuck 520 8.7% 11.5% .051 .279 .244 .311 .295 .269
Paul McAnulty 481 7.9% 25.6% .151 .261 .213 .279 .364 .279
Brendan Harris 464 6.0% 17.0% .094 .259 .222 .277 .316 .261
Efren Navarro 597 5.0% 15.6% .088 .274 .239 .277 .327 .263
Doug Deeds 369 5.7% 26.6% .111 .288 .217 .267 .328 .258
Matt Young 488 9.8% 17.8% .069 .267 .218 .300 .287 .266

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def WAR No.1 Comp
Mike Trout 695 7.5 142 8 8.0 Matt Kemp
Albert Pujols 638 7.1 144 4 5.3 Orlando Cepeda
Josh Hamilton 584 5.9 126 5 3.8 Chick Hafey
Erick Aybar 601 4.9 99 0 3.2 Tony Fernandez
Howie Kendrick 614 4.8 102 2 3.0 Jim Davenport
Peter Bourjos 471 4.4 96 11 2.8 Shane Victorino
Alberto Callaspo 553 4.6 99 4 2.7 Bill Mueller
Mark Trumbo 596 5.4 119 -5 2.3 Richie Sexson
Chris Iannetta 333 4.4 103 -1 1.8 Mike Fitzgerald
Vernon Wells 449 4.5 99 2 1.3 Hoot Evers
Hank Conger 409 3.8 86 -4 1.2 Walt McKeel
Luis Jimenez 588 3.8 84 -4 1.0 Angel Chavez
Tommy Field 550 3.0 67 0 0.9 Ricky Magdaleno
Kole Calhoun 557 3.9 86 1 0.8 Darren Burton
Andrew Romine 494 3.0 65 -1 0.6 Kevin Castleberry
Travis Witherspoon 573 3.0 65 3 0.5 Barry Wesson
Angel Sanchez 428 3.3 72 -4 0.5 Joe Funaro
Luis Rodriguez 330 3.9 90 -5 0.3 Nelson Liriano
John Hester 302 3.2 73 -4 0.3 Dwight Lowry
Luke Carlin 262 2.9 68 -2 0.3 Bob Swift
Scott Cousins 345 3.2 71 3 0.2 Jalal Leach
Trent Oeltjen 458 3.5 79 0 0.1 Michael Tucker
J.B. Shuck 520 3.2 73 3 -0.1 Steve Stanley
Paul McAnulty 481 3.4 80 0 -0.1 Jody Davis
Brendan Harris 464 3.0 68 -4 -0.1 Jorge Velandia
Efren Navarro 597 3.2 70 5 -0.3 Chad Chop
Doug Deeds 369 3.0 68 0 -0.3 Todd Dunwoody
Matt Young 488 3.1 68 -5 -0.8 Jarvis Brown

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player T Age G GS IP SO BB HR H R ER
Jered Weaver R 30 31 31 203.0 176 49 20 171 73 68
C.J. Wilson L 32 31 31 193.3 169 79 15 172 80 75
Tommy Hanson R 26 29 29 169.7 149 57 22 166 79 74
Jason Vargas L 30 29 29 186.0 118 48 26 189 96 90
Ernesto Frieri R 27 66 0 66.0 85 32 7 48 24 22
Joe Blanton R 32 21 20 130.3 98 25 19 140 70 65
Nick Maronde L 23 24 15 78.7 54 27 8 81 40 37
Jerome Williams R 31 28 17 129.7 86 33 17 140 71 66
Ryan Madson R 32 44 0 42.0 40 11 3 38 16 15
Sean Burnett L 30 68 0 56.3 48 17 5 54 24 22
Scott Downs L 37 54 0 45.0 33 14 4 42 19 18
Kevin Jepsen R 28 63 0 58.7 50 23 5 56 28 26
LaTroy Hawkins R 40 45 0 40.3 24 13 4 43 20 19
Ryan Brasier R 25 56 0 58.3 42 29 5 58 30 28
Jason Isringhausen R 40 43 0 38.0 29 17 5 38 20 19
Steve Geltz R 25 43 0 52.3 51 28 7 48 28 26
David Carpenter R 27 54 0 59.7 45 25 8 61 32 30
Jo-Jo Reyes L 28 21 14 82.0 51 28 12 93 50 47
Mitch Stetter L 32 36 0 26.0 21 14 4 27 16 15
Michael Kohn R 27 48 0 48.0 43 28 7 47 28 26
Brandon Sisk L 27 46 0 61.7 48 34 8 62 36 34
Garrett Richards R 25 34 23 133.3 83 63 16 153 85 79
Sean White R 32 39 1 51.0 26 31 5 58 33 31
Bobby Cassevah R 27 53 0 62.0 32 32 7 68 39 36
Barry Enright R 27 27 27 146.7 84 62 26 162 95 89
Brad Mills L 28 23 22 121.3 77 50 18 143 80 75
Billy Buckner R 29 22 22 119.3 61 53 18 137 79 74
Andrew Taylor L 26 42 7 72.7 40 49 12 88 57 53

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Jered Weaver 203.0 829 21.2% 5.9% .260 3.01 3.41 77 87
C.J. Wilson 193.3 831 20.3% 9.5% .280 3.49 3.69 89 94
Tommy Hanson 169.7 732 20.4% 7.8% .290 3.93 4.08 100 104
Jason Vargas 186.0 795 14.8% 6.0% .272 4.35 4.43 111 113
Ernesto Frieri 66.0 278 30.6% 11.5% .279 3.00 3.58 76 91
Joe Blanton 130.3 556 17.6% 4.5% .294 4.49 4.06 114 103
Nick Maronde 78.7 344 15.7% 7.8% .292 4.23 4.26 108 109
Jerome Williams 129.7 562 15.3% 5.9% .293 4.58 4.35 117 111
Ryan Madson 42.0 175 22.9% 6.3% .294 3.21 2.76 82 70
Sean Burnett 56.3 240 20.0% 7.1% .292 3.51 3.40 89 87
Scott Downs 45.0 191 17.3% 7.3% .273 3.60 3.65 92 93
Kevin Jepsen 58.7 255 19.6% 9.0% .293 3.99 3.67 102 94
LaTroy Hawkins 40.3 177 13.6% 7.3% .287 4.24 4.09 108 104
Ryan Brasier 58.3 262 16.0% 11.1% .290 4.32 4.42 110 112
Jason Isringhausen 38.0 169 17.2% 10.1% .280 4.50 4.46 115 114
Steve Geltz 52.3 233 21.9% 12.0% .285 4.47 4.55 114 116
David Carpenter 59.7 265 17.0% 9.4% .289 4.53 4.64 115 118
Jo-Jo Reyes 82.0 367 13.9% 7.6% .299 5.16 4.96 131 126
Mitch Stetter 26.0 119 17.6% 11.8% .295 5.19 5.21 132 133
Michael Kohn 48.0 219 19.6% 12.8% .288 4.88 5.07 124 129
Brandon Sisk 61.7 281 17.1% 12.1% .289 4.96 5.02 126 128
Garrett Richards 133.3 616 13.5% 10.2% .307 5.33 4.99 136 127
Sean White 51.0 242 10.7% 12.8% .299 5.47 5.29 139 135
Bobby Cassevah 62.0 286 11.2% 11.2% .288 5.23 5.13 133 131
Barry Enright 146.7 664 12.6% 9.3% .280 5.46 5.62 139 143
Brad Mills 121.3 557 13.8% 9.0% .309 5.56 5.14 142 131
Billy Buckner 119.3 548 11.1% 9.7% .291 5.58 5.52 142 141
Andrew Taylor 72.7 355 11.3% 13.8% .305 6.56 6.37 167 162

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ WAR No. 1 Comp
Jered Weaver 203.0 7.80 2.17 0.89 127 4.9 Andy Benes
C.J. Wilson 193.3 7.87 3.68 0.70 110 3.6 Doug Davis
Tommy Hanson 169.7 7.90 3.02 1.17 98 2.2 Jack McDowell
Jason Vargas 186.0 5.71 2.32 1.26 88 1.5 Carlos Perez
Ernesto Frieri 66.0 11.59 4.36 0.95 128 1.0 Armando Benitez
Joe Blanton 130.3 6.77 1.73 1.31 86 0.8 Josh Towers
Nick Maronde 78.7 6.18 3.09 0.91 91 0.7 Steve Cooke
Jerome Williams 129.7 5.97 2.29 1.18 84 0.6 James Baldwin
Ryan Madson 42.0 8.57 2.36 0.64 119 0.5 Rod Beck
Sean Burnett 56.3 7.67 2.72 0.80 109 0.5 Chuck McElroy
Scott Downs 45.0 6.60 2.80 0.80 107 0.4 Vic Darensbourg
Kevin Jepsen 58.7 7.67 3.53 0.77 96 0.2 Brandon Kolb
LaTroy Hawkins 40.3 5.36 2.90 0.89 91 0.0 Boom-Boom Beck
Ryan Brasier 58.3 6.48 4.48 0.77 89 0.0 Joel Moore
Jason Isringhausen 38.0 6.87 4.03 1.18 85 -0.1 Jose Mesa
Steve Geltz 52.3 8.78 4.82 1.20 86 -0.1 Rafael Pimentel
David Carpenter 59.7 6.78 3.77 1.21 85 -0.2 Brendan Donnelly
Jo-Jo Reyes 82.0 5.60 3.07 1.32 74 -0.2 David Davidson
Mitch Stetter 26.0 7.27 4.85 1.38 74 -0.3 Eddie Oropesa
Michael Kohn 48.0 8.06 5.25 1.31 79 -0.4 Tom Shearn
Brandon Sisk 61.7 7.00 4.96 1.17 77 -0.5 Leo Vasquez
Garrett Richards 133.3 5.60 4.25 1.08 72 -0.6 Adam Russell
Sean White 51.0 4.59 5.47 0.88 70 -0.7 Jerry Johnson
Bobby Cassevah 62.0 4.65 4.65 1.02 73 -0.7 Mike Zimmerman
Barry Enright 146.7 5.15 3.80 1.60 70 -0.8 Brett Roberts
Brad Mills 121.3 5.71 3.71 1.34 69 -0.8 Mike Prochaska
Billy Buckner 119.3 4.60 4.00 1.36 69 -0.8 Mike Heathcott
Andrew Taylor 72.7 4.95 6.07 1.49 59 -1.7 Sean Whiteside

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.09 ERA and the NL having a 3.92 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected WAR.


Article printed from FanGraphs Baseball: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs

URL to article: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2013-zips-projections-los-angeles-angels/

Copyright © 2009 FanGraphs Baseball. All rights reserved.