2013 ZiPS Projections – Miami Marlins

Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, are being released at FanGraphs this year. Below are the projections for the Miami Marlins. Szymborski can be found on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other 2013 Projections: Angels / Astros / Athletics / Blue Jays / Brewers / Cardinals / Cubs / Diamondbacks / Dodgers / Giants / Mariners / Mets / Nationals / Phillies / Pirates / Rangers / Rays / Reds / Rockies / Royals / Tigers / White Sox.

Batters
It will come as no surprise to the reader to learn that the 2013 Marlins are likely to be a poor team. That’s not to suggest, of course, that the Miami players themselves will be anything less than committed to flawless victory, but rather that the front office — by way of their deadline and offseason trades — have conspired to make the chances of said flawless victory much less likely.

In the interest of brevity — and because the author is running out of port as he writes this — let’s summarize the projections for Miami’s field players via bullet-point technology:

Regard:
Giancarlo Stanton‘s forecast — which is on par with Ryan Braun‘s (link) and Buster Posey‘s (other link) — suggests that, if healthy, he could contend for MVP candidacy in the National League.
• ZiPS concurs with Justin Ruggiano‘s pronouncement via Twitter from November — regarding the Marlins center-field spot — that Ruggiano’s “got this.” His two-win projection is the second-highest among Miami field players.
• Here’s the departed Jose Reyes‘s WAR projection relative to his replacement Adeiny Hechavarria‘s: 4.3 vs. 1.3.

Pitchers
Now, a similar exercise for pitchers.

Regard:
• Here are the ZiPS WAR projections for 2013 for the (mostly departed) members of the Marlins’ 2012 opening-day rotation: Josh Johnson (3.4 WAR), Mark Buehrle (2.5), Ricky Nolasco (1.6), Carlos Zambrano (0.8), and Anibal Sanchez (2.8).
• Now here are the WAR projections for the Marlins likely 2013 rotation: Nolasco (1.6 WAR), Henderson Alvarez (1.0), Wade LeBlanc (0.9), Nathan Eovaldi (0.7), Jacob Turner (0.2).
• Here’s the total for the 2012 starters: 11.1 WAR. And for the 2013 starters: 4.4 WAR. Would it be fair to say that the present Marlins’ rotation will be worth about six or seven wins fewer than the combined total of the (mostly departed) 2012 starters? Yes, it probably would.

Bench/Prospects
Given the nature of their recent transactions, a thing the Marlins do have is young talent. Both Jake Marisnick (an outfield prospect acquired from Toronto) and Derek Dietrich (a shortstop from Tampa Bay, acquired in the deal that sent Yunel Escobar there) profile as a win better than replacement-level already. They join Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna, already present in the organization. The best of Miami’s pitching prospects — Jose Fernandez, Andrew Heaney, and Justin Nicolino (acquired from Toronto) — appear to have too few innings in the high minors for a reliable ZiPS projections.

Depth Chart
Here’s a rough depth chart for the Marlins, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player (click to embiggen):

Mariners Depth

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Credit to MLB Depth Charts for roster information.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Giancarlo Stanton R 23 RF 569 88 143 31 3 41 98 6 4
Justin Ruggiano R 31 CF 447 51 106 25 1 13 51 15 6
Rob Brantly L 23 C 551 51 135 28 1 9 47 1 3
Christian Yelich L 21 CF 540 64 126 27 4 13 61 21 7
Logan Morrison L 25 1B 488 56 111 25 5 15 60 2 2
Adeiny Hechavarria R 24 SS 624 62 148 25 6 7 52 10 6
Jacob Realmuto R 22 C 502 50 115 17 1 9 44 12 7
Jake Marisnick R 22 CF 604 54 136 26 7 10 57 23 10
Derek Dietrich L 23 SS 615 64 140 30 6 15 68 4 6
Placido Polanco R 37 3B 381 32 93 13 0 3 26 1 0
Donovan Solano R 25 2B 475 46 114 21 3 3 36 6 0
Kevin Kouzmanoff R 31 3B 486 46 115 28 1 11 58 2 1
Marcell Ozuna R 22 RF 589 72 131 26 4 19 69 10 3
Gorkys Hernandez R 25 CF 515 60 108 17 7 4 40 18 8
Carlos Lee R 37 1B 574 54 139 28 2 11 78 3 1
Zack Cox L 24 3B 533 50 127 28 1 9 48 1 1
Juan Pierre L 35 LF 542 67 139 13 5 1 34 35 12
Kyle Skipworth L 23 C 492 54 96 16 2 15 54 1 3
Jeff Mathis R 30 C 255 25 51 12 1 5 27 2 1
Cole Armstrong L 29 C 212 19 44 10 0 4 19 0 1
Craig Tatum R 30 C 127 11 26 4 0 1 10 1 1
Bryan Petersen L 27 RF 532 61 120 20 5 6 39 11 7
Tug Hulett L 30 3B 389 39 83 18 2 5 34 5 3
Matt Downs R 29 1B 315 37 71 14 1 9 36 3 4
Clint Sammons R 30 C 181 18 33 5 0 5 17 1 1
Chris Coghlan L 28 RF 477 60 108 23 3 7 40 9 5
Austin Kearns R 33 LF 232 25 46 8 1 4 17 2 2
Audy Ciriaco R 26 3B 432 42 97 16 3 9 40 10 5
Nick Green R 34 2B 346 34 74 18 1 7 36 2 3
Chris Valaika R 27 2B 455 41 103 20 2 6 38 2 2
Jordan Brown L 29 1B 468 44 115 25 2 6 43 2 3
Shawn Bowman R 28 3B 424 40 88 18 1 9 36 1 1
Kyle Jensen R 25 RF 537 55 110 20 2 17 61 2 1
Joe Mahoney L 26 1B 509 47 119 27 3 9 53 5 2
Chris Aguila R 34 LF 361 33 73 16 1 8 30 3 1
Greg Dobbs L 34 3B 320 26 76 13 1 6 34 2 1
Mike Cervenak R 36 1B 425 45 102 18 0 8 40 2 2
Chase Lambin B 33 2B 414 35 85 14 4 6 34 2 4
Alfredo Silverio R 26 RF 465 58 108 25 8 9 47 7 8

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP BA OBP SLG wOBA
Giancarlo Stanton 569 10.4% 25.5% .320 .322 .286 .367 .606 .401
Justin Ruggiano 447 7.6% 26.0% .162 .331 .260 .318 .422 .322
Rob Brantly 551 5.1% 14.0% .111 .292 .263 .305 .374 .293
Christian Yelich 540 8.1% 25.4% .150 .328 .255 .317 .405 .316
Logan Morrison 488 10.9% 17.6% .187 .291 .259 .344 .446 .339
Adeiny Hechavarria 624 4.6% 18.9% .100 .305 .254 .289 .354 .278
Jacob Realmuto 502 5.6% 20.1% .099 .297 .248 .296 .347 .281
Jake Marisnick 604 5.3% 20.7% .127 .299 .246 .301 .373 .295
Derek Dietrich 615 4.4% 21.8% .154 .295 .246 .294 .400 .297
Placido Polanco 381 6.3% 7.9% .064 .282 .266 .315 .330 .284
Donovan Solano 475 5.1% 16.4% .082 .307 .260 .300 .342 .281
Kevin Kouzmanoff 486 3.5% 17.7% .137 .285 .252 .285 .389 .290
Marcell Ozuna 589 6.5% 27.0% .167 .304 .240 .291 .407 .304
Gorkys Hernandez 515 7.6% 25.6% .093 .317 .234 .301 .327 .278
Carlos Lee 574 8.4% 8.9% .125 .277 .268 .329 .393 .312
Zack Cox 533 5.1% 22.9% .114 .319 .255 .298 .369 .290
Juan Pierre 542 5.2% 5.9% .053 .301 .284 .332 .337 .295
Kyle Skipworth 492 5.9% 35.2% .142 .299 .211 .262 .353 .264
Jeff Mathis 255 4.7% 27.1% .125 .288 .220 .259 .345 .253
Cole Armstrong 212 8.0% 23.6% .115 .288 .229 .294 .344 .277
Craig Tatum 127 7.1% 20.5% .060 .278 .224 .278 .284 .249
Bryan Petersen 532 8.3% 19.7% .101 .310 .253 .320 .354 .292
Tug Hulett 389 8.5% 20.8% .106 .292 .237 .302 .343 .283
Matt Downs 315 6.0% 18.7% .150 .281 .247 .306 .397 .302
Clint Sammons 181 5.5% 26.0% .120 .241 .199 .250 .319 .249
Chris Coghlan 477 8.6% 15.1% .117 .288 .254 .322 .371 .302
Austin Kearns 232 11.2% 25.0% .111 .307 .231 .338 .342 .303
Audy Ciriaco 432 2.8% 21.8% .118 .280 .233 .258 .351 .264
Nick Green 346 4.6% 21.4% .130 .280 .233 .281 .363 .274
Chris Valaika 455 4.0% 19.6% .099 .290 .242 .277 .341 .268
Jordan Brown 468 4.3% 13.9% .107 .292 .261 .294 .368 .285
Shawn Bowman 424 4.7% 31.6% .118 .306 .220 .262 .338 .260
Kyle Jensen 537 7.8% 34.3% .154 .321 .226 .291 .380 .293
Joe Mahoney 509 5.3% 21.8% .127 .309 .253 .299 .380 .293
Chris Aguila 361 6.6% 28.5% .126 .293 .221 .278 .347 .274
Greg Dobbs 320 4.7% 17.5% .111 .290 .254 .288 .365 .278
Mike Cervenak 425 5.2% 14.4% .106 .285 .258 .301 .364 .288
Chase Lambin 414 6.0% 24.2% .107 .287 .225 .280 .332 .264
Alfredo Silverio 465 3.4% 22.2% .153 .296 .244 .270 .397 .279

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def WAR No.1 Comp
Giancarlo Stanton 569 8.4 159 7 6.4 Mark McGwire
Justin Ruggiano 447 5.0 99 3 2.0 Leroy Stanton
Rob Brantly 551 4.1 83 1 1.8 Matt Walbeck
Christian Yelich 540 4.8 95 -3 1.6 Mel Hall
Logan Morrison 488 5.6 113 -3 1.4 Benny Distefano
Adeiny Hechavarria 624 3.7 74 3 1.3 Ronny Cedeno
Jacob Realmuto 502 3.6 74 2 1.3 Koyie Hill
Jake Marisnick 604 4.1 82 1 1.2 Adam Jones
Derek Dietrich 615 4.1 86 -6 1.1 Ivanon Coffie
Placido Polanco 381 3.9 76 5 1.0 Mark Loretta
Donovan Solano 475 3.9 74 3 0.9 Juan Melo
Kevin Kouzmanoff 486 4.0 81 1 0.9 Aurelio Rodriguez
Marcell Ozuna 589 4.3 87 2 0.8 Dave Henderson
Gorkys Hernandez 515 3.5 71 5 0.7 Herm Winningham
Carlos Lee 574 4.8 95 -2 0.7 Buddy Bell
Zack Cox 533 4.0 80 -2 0.7 Jeff Moronko
Juan Pierre 542 4.5 83 0 0.4 Tony Womack
Kyle Skipworth 492 3.1 65 -4 0.1 Todd Pratt
Jeff Mathis 255 3.1 62 -1 0.1 Chris Curry
Cole Armstrong 212 3.4 73 -3 0.1 Bill Dobrolsky
Craig Tatum 127 2.7 53 1 0.1 Chris Tremie
Bryan Petersen 532 4.0 83 0 0.1 Mike Kingery
Tug Hulett 389 3.6 75 -4 0.0 Rodney Nye
Matt Downs 315 4.2 89 -1 0.0 Guillermo Garcia
Clint Sammons 181 2.6 53 0 0.0 Charlie Greene
Chris Coghlan 477 4.3 88 -5 -0.1 Russ Adams
Austin Kearns 232 4.0 86 -2 -0.1 Junior Spivey
Audy Ciriaco 432 3.2 63 -1 -0.3 Santiago Henry
Nick Green 346 3.5 73 -5 -0.3 Aurelio Rodriguez
Chris Valaika 455 3.3 67 -3 -0.3 Edgar Varela
Jordan Brown 468 3.9 79 0 -0.4 Quinn Mack
Shawn Bowman 424 3.0 61 -2 -0.4 Juan Richardson
Kyle Jensen 537 3.9 80 -5 -0.4 Brent Clevlen
Joe Mahoney 509 4.1 83 -4 -0.4 Andy Lawrence
Chris Aguila 361 3.4 69 -1 -0.5 Felipe Zayas
Greg Dobbs 320 3.8 76 -8 -0.5 Wes Helms
Mike Cervenak 425 3.9 80 -4 -0.6 Ray Knight
Chase Lambin 414 3.1 66 -7 -0.8 Casey Candaele
Alfredo Silverio 465 3.6 78 -5 -1.0 William Strait

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player T Age G GS IP SO BB HR H R ER
Ricky Nolasco R 30 27 27 169.7 122 38 19 187 88 82
Henderson Alvarez R 23 28 28 167.0 85 46 20 188 92 86
Wade LeBlanc L 28 32 25 152.3 110 46 18 167 83 78
Steve Cishek R 27 65 0 69.0 69 29 5 62 28 26
Carlos Zambrano R 32 28 19 117.0 87 60 12 117 63 59
Adam Conley L 23 26 26 121.0 101 63 12 119 66 62
Nathan Eovaldi R 23 29 27 136.3 99 63 15 142 76 71
Ryan Webb R 27 66 0 66.7 46 23 4 69 31 29
Kevin Slowey R 29 18 16 88.7 59 20 12 99 50 47
Grant Dayton L 25 38 3 59.7 55 31 5 57 30 28
A.J. Ramos R 26 67 0 69.7 68 34 7 65 34 32
Jose Ceda R 26 37 0 41.0 42 21 4 37 19 18
Jacob Turner R 22 25 25 137.0 88 62 16 148 81 76
Chad Gaudin R 30 38 3 63.3 50 23 7 66 33 31
Mike Dunn L 28 68 0 60.7 64 35 5 56 30 28
Jonathan Albaladejo R 30 55 0 57.3 56 27 7 53 29 27
Michael Brady R 26 46 0 49.0 43 13 6 49 25 23
Sam Dyson R 25 42 6 73.3 32 27 5 84 41 38
Scott Maine L 28 54 0 60.0 56 31 6 58 31 29
Jon Link R 29 43 0 51.3 40 25 5 52 27 25
Chris Hatcher R 28 50 0 56.3 47 27 6 57 30 28
Zach Phillips L 26 51 0 62.3 45 35 4 64 33 31
Chad Qualls R 34 62 0 55.7 37 16 6 61 30 28
Arquimedes Caminero R 26 28 0 35.0 31 24 3 34 19 18
Tom Koehler R 27 30 26 141.0 102 73 19 153 88 82
Evan Reed R 27 39 0 48.3 36 27 5 50 28 26
Dan Jennings L 26 54 0 60.0 41 31 5 66 34 32
Alex Sanabia R 24 17 16 78.7 44 25 13 92 51 48
John Maine R 32 12 12 56.3 38 36 8 62 39 36
Jordan Smith R 27 53 0 58.3 29 22 6 68 35 33
Doug Mathis R 30 20 16 88.3 44 46 12 108 62 58
Gary Glover R 36 39 0 58.3 42 33 9 64 40 37
Brad Hand L 23 28 28 138.7 101 98 21 147 94 88
Braulio Lara L 24 24 22 104.3 61 77 16 122 81 76
Edgar Olmos L 23 30 19 101.0 70 94 15 115 80 75

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Ricky Nolasco 169.7 734 16.6% 5.2% .305 4.35 3.77 111 96
Henderson Alvarez 167.0 735 11.6% 6.3% .290 4.63 4.53 118 116
Wade LeBlanc 152.3 670 16.4% 6.9% .304 4.61 4.15 118 106
Steve Cishek 69.0 298 23.2% 9.7% .300 3.39 3.21 86 82
Carlos Zambrano 117.0 528 16.5% 11.4% .290 4.54 4.63 116 118
Adam Conley 121.0 545 18.5% 11.6% .297 4.61 4.50 118 115
Nathan Eovaldi 136.3 614 16.1% 10.3% .295 4.69 4.57 120 117
Ryan Webb 66.7 292 15.7% 7.9% .301 3.92 3.35 100 85
Kevin Slowey 88.7 385 15.3% 5.2% .300 4.77 4.34 122 111
Grant Dayton 59.7 267 20.6% 11.6% .302 4.22 4.05 108 103
A.J. Ramos 69.7 308 22.1% 11.0% .299 4.13 4.13 105 105
Jose Ceda 41.0 181 23.2% 11.6% .295 3.95 3.92 101 100
Jacob Turner 137.0 621 14.2% 10.0% .295 4.99 4.80 127 122
Chad Gaudin 63.3 279 17.9% 8.2% .303 4.41 4.14 113 106
Mike Dunn 60.7 273 23.4% 12.8% .305 4.15 3.64 106 93
Jonathan Albaladejo 57.3 252 22.2% 10.7% .291 4.24 4.25 108 108
Michael Brady 49.0 209 20.6% 6.2% .299 4.22 3.79 108 97
Sam Dyson 73.3 331 9.7% 8.2% .300 4.66 4.38 119 112
Scott Maine 60.0 269 20.8% 11.5% .304 4.35 4.28 111 109
Jon Link 51.3 231 17.3% 10.8% .298 4.38 4.32 112 110
Chris Hatcher 56.3 253 18.6% 10.7% .302 4.47 4.41 114 112
Zach Phillips 62.3 286 15.7% 12.2% .303 4.48 4.22 114 108
Chad Qualls 55.7 244 15.2% 6.6% .297 4.53 3.92 116 100
Arquimedes Caminero 35.0 163 19.0% 14.7% .301 4.63 4.58 118 117
Tom Koehler 141.0 649 15.7% 11.2% .300 5.23 5.08 133 130
Evan Reed 48.3 222 16.2% 12.2% .298 4.84 4.69 123 120
Dan Jennings 60.0 277 14.8% 11.2% .311 4.80 4.51 122 115
Alex Sanabia 78.7 353 12.5% 7.1% .296 5.49 5.19 140 132
John Maine 56.3 267 14.2% 13.5% .299 5.75 5.67 147 145
Jordan Smith 58.3 265 10.9% 8.3% .303 5.09 4.57 130 117
Doug Mathis 88.3 419 10.5% 11.0% .308 5.91 5.60 151 143
Gary Glover 58.3 272 15.4% 12.1% .299 5.71 5.31 146 135
Brad Hand 138.7 661 15.3% 14.8% .291 5.71 5.83 146 149
Braulio Lara 104.3 512 11.9% 15.0% .303 6.56 6.34 167 162
Edgar Olmos 101.0 512 13.7% 18.4% .308 6.68 6.64 170 169

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ WAR No. 1 Comp
Ricky Nolasco 169.7 6.47 2.02 1.01 90 1.6 Esteban Loaiza
Henderson Alvarez 167.0 4.58 2.48 1.08 85 1.0 Carlos Silva
Wade LeBlanc 152.3 6.50 2.72 1.06 85 0.9 Andrew Lorraine
Steve Cishek 69.0 9.00 3.78 0.65 116 0.9 Manny Delcarmen
Carlos Zambrano 117.0 6.69 4.62 0.92 87 0.8 Jamey Wright
Adam Conley 121.0 7.51 4.69 0.89 85 0.8 Juan Ovalles
Nathan Eovaldi 136.3 6.54 4.16 0.99 84 0.7 Zach Miner
Ryan Webb 66.7 6.21 3.10 0.54 100 0.4 Rafael Montalvo
Kevin Slowey 88.7 5.99 2.03 1.22 82 0.4 Mark Johnson
Grant Dayton 59.7 8.29 4.67 0.75 93 0.3 Scott Wiggins
A.J. Ramos 69.7 8.78 4.39 0.90 95 0.2 Kevin Barry
Jose Ceda 41.0 9.22 4.61 0.88 99 0.2 Brian Bruney
Jacob Turner 137.0 5.78 4.07 1.05 79 0.2 Balvino Galvez
Chad Gaudin 63.3 7.11 3.27 1.00 89 0.2 Steve Crawford
Mike Dunn 60.7 9.49 5.19 0.74 95 0.2 Ricky Pickett
Jonathan Albaladejo 57.3 8.80 4.24 1.10 93 0.1 Chad Harville
Michael Brady 49.0 7.90 2.39 1.10 93 0.1 Kevin Crafton
Sam Dyson 73.3 3.93 3.32 0.61 84 0.1 Jack Cassel
Scott Maine 60.0 8.40 4.65 0.90 90 0.0 Kevin Tolar
Jon Link 51.3 7.02 4.39 0.88 90 0.0 Miguel Saladin
Chris Hatcher 56.3 7.51 4.32 0.96 88 0.0 Miguel Saladin
Zach Phillips 62.3 6.50 5.06 0.58 88 0.0 Pete Cappadona
Chad Qualls 55.7 5.98 2.59 0.97 87 -0.1 Jose Bautista
Arquimedes Caminero 35.0 7.97 6.17 0.77 85 -0.1 Jeff Smith
Tom Koehler 141.0 6.51 4.66 1.21 75 -0.2 Ryan Glynn
Evan Reed 48.3 6.71 5.03 0.93 81 -0.3 Ryan Baker
Dan Jennings 60.0 6.15 4.65 0.75 82 -0.3 Anthony Ferrari
Alex Sanabia 78.7 5.03 2.86 1.49 72 -0.4 Doug Gogolewski
John Maine 56.3 6.07 5.75 1.28 68 -0.4 Kevin Foster
Jordan Smith 58.3 4.48 3.40 0.93 77 -0.5 Andy Nezelek
Doug Mathis 88.3 4.48 4.69 1.22 66 -0.9 Giovanni Carrara
Gary Glover 58.3 6.48 5.09 1.39 69 -0.9 Johnny Klippstein
Brad Hand 138.7 6.55 6.36 1.36 69 -1.0 Tom Singer
Braulio Lara 104.3 5.26 6.64 1.38 60 -1.8 Ryan Jacobs
Edgar Olmos 101.0 6.24 8.38 1.34 59 -2.0 Troy Carrasco

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.09 ERA and the NL having a 3.92 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected WAR.



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Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
Bill Nye
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Bill Nye
3 years 7 months ago

What a joke

RMD
Guest
RMD
3 years 7 months ago

The Marlins did the right thing selling off everybody who made real money right? They’re going nowhere anyway, so you might as well go all out. It’s the flip side of the same coin of what the Angels did. They already committed too much for the sake of competing, so they might as well double down and sign Josh Hamilton.

I know it’s a very sticky situation with the new (mostly publicly financed)ballpark, but staying afloat in mediocrity would have done them no good.

tylersnotes
Member
3 years 7 months ago

even in a universe where the options are strictly binary, between 1)selling off all nearly literally contract obligations after one underperformed season to enter complete “rebuilding mode” and 2) keeping those same contract obligations only 1 year after going all in, I am not sure this could count as the “right thing.” the 2012 marlins were at this time last year expected to be competitive in a division that seemed up for grabs. the nl east seems on paper to be more lopsided in favor of the nationals/braves this year.

There is i’m sure a world where johnson and reyes flame out due to injury, buerhle is vastly overpaid, and bonifacio just keeps bonifacioing it up. in that world unloading these contracts in one big dump might retroactively seem savvy. But the context for the dump make absolutely nothing about what the marlins ownership did the “right thing”

BEN2074X
Member
BEN2074X
3 years 7 months ago

I know it’s be hashed around the interwebs already but……….. seriously the Rangers need to call Miami and offer up Profar and Olt or somthing and get Stanton off this team. With the team control on Stanton the Rangers could resign Andrus with the cash savings….unless the Rangers seriously think they have Mike Trout in the infield with Profar.

tylersnotes
Member
3 years 7 months ago

stanton on the marlins is the best hope the city of miami has to have someone’s homeruns accidentally destroy the stadium and get the insurance money.

Nathan
Guest
Nathan
3 years 7 months ago

Absolutely ridiculous. The front office is the worst in baseball. Unfortunately you can’t fire the owner and his step-son/president of business operations. This is the ugliest team possibly in the last 80 years. I feel bad for Stanton. One he’s gone this team will be worse than a Pioneer League team!

ba
Guest
ba
3 years 7 months ago

Front office and ownership are not the same thing.

Ryan
Guest
Ryan
3 years 7 months ago

Usually true, But Loria is very involved with all of the front office decisions.

Clifford
Guest
Clifford
3 years 7 months ago

i dont even think theyre the uggliest team in baseball this year. let alone the last 80 years. i would not be the least bit surprised if a team like this went out and won something like 75 games. you only have to go back as far as last year and look at the Orioles

Baltar
Guest
Baltar
3 years 7 months ago

Though this is not a valid way of comparing teams, I am very surprised that the total of the depth chart here is 2 WAR higher than the Mets’.
If Stanton’s WAR were subtracted, their total would be worse than the Astros’.

vivaelpujols
Guest
vivaelpujols
3 years 7 months ago

What happens if you take away 6 WAR from the Astros?

Sylvan
Guest
Sylvan
3 years 7 months ago

If the Mets depth chart were updated for new acquisitions, it would be 3–4 WAR higher (mostly from the addition of Marcum in the rotation).

Dave S
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Dave S
3 years 7 months ago

The Braves are the “uggliest” team in baseball ;)

vivaelpujols
Guest
vivaelpujols
3 years 7 months ago

You’re retarded dude. The Marlins got a shitload back in prospects and salary for a couple of huge contracts which we’re likely to be negative going forward. Much rather have had this offseason than the Royals or DBacks.

Check the Marlin’s average record under Loria. Are you really going to argue he’s a deplorable owner?

Josh
Guest
Josh
3 years 7 months ago

Not sure if you’re trolling, but are you seriously suggesting he isn’t a deplorable owner?

Balthazar
Guest
Balthazar
3 years 7 months ago

I agree in the main Nathan sans the hyperbole. This roster is certainly the least experienced in MLB. The pitching is so iffy, especially starting pitching, that losing 100 games with this squad looks like the bet to play. Those talking about ‘all the X that the Marlins got back’ are playing instruments inside the camp’s barbed wire: many prospects _never_ pan out, and the guys that game aren’t a single one of them high end projections to begin with. Not even a whole lot of maybe, just hopes and dreams. I don’t think this is the worst team in 80 years in terms of 25 man ability, but it’s a lousy team.

The Marlins had the worst offseason of any team given the squad dis/re/assembled. Which is saying something given how bad the Mariners’ offseason was (though the northwestern counterweight to Miami’s odium did at least acquire Kendrys Morales who projects better than anyone the Marlins got back). There was no obvious attempt by the Marlins to deal their frontliners for a good return. That would have involved multiple negotiations, and the tear down would have been obvious and might well have achieved an intervention by the Commissioner’s office. The process looked more like finding whoever would take those long-money contracts north, and taking back in return whatever/however little was offered. The point was speed and a fait accompli. One can say this for Loria: he does the stab in the back as quick, clean, and dead as the best of them, icepick to the base of the skull, you’re hopes are dead before you even know he’s snuck up behind you.

Jeff Bagwell
Guest
Jeff Bagwell
3 years 7 months ago

Looks like Stanton’s player comp will ruin any chance he has at making the Hall of Fame. Association with McGwire? Then you’re not allowed! BBWAA takes their steroid associations very seriously.

Nick C
Guest
Nick C
3 years 7 months ago

Chad Qualls’ closest comp is Jose Bautista. Someone put a bat in his hands!

Baltar
Guest
Baltar
3 years 7 months ago

Bautista was mediocre for years before he broke out into stardom. This comp does not predict that the latter will happen for Qualls, only that they were similar players at this point in their careers.

Adam R
Guest
Adam R
3 years 7 months ago

It’s actually the pitcher, not the outfielder…

Pinstripe Wizard
Member
Pinstripe Wizard
3 years 7 months ago

Baltar may have missed the sarcasm there.

Balthazar
Guest
Balthazar
3 years 7 months ago

Stanton’s best comp is Dick Allen. And look at who and what Stanton is: a massive man, who was huge for his age and hitting moonshots in his _mid-teens_. There really ARE ‘power hitters,’ both presently and historically. It’s just that there are never very many of them. Most of them look like Stanton, and always perform with maximum power. They don’t look like, say, Jose Bautista, who looked one way and had the results to match for most of his career . . . then the visuals and the distances shifted. Power hitters _do_ look like the young Mark McGwire, who was a great big guy who always hit for excellent power—and then suddenly added a lot of body mass when his career looked to be over and added YARDS of drive to his ridiculously more numerous longballs.

Stanton has always had legitimate 75-80 power, and the physique one would expect. If at some point he goes from 40 HR a year to 60+ with mucho added distance, there’s reason for suspicion. But as of now, he looks exactly like what he was projected to be from his mid-teens on.

TKDC
Guest
TKDC
3 years 7 months ago

Yep, any time anything happens that isn’t a perfect arc that means steroids.

Jeff
Guest
Jeff
3 years 7 months ago

Am I reading you incorrectly, or are you implying that Bautista should be under suspicion for steroids?

Balthazar
Guest
Balthazar
3 years 7 months ago

Not all arcs are created equal (or naturally). And the use of the word is incorrect in your remarks, as an ‘arc’ implies two points on a common trajectory. Jose Bautista’s career has two, distinct arcs which don’t resemble each other at all. The second recent one, has .150+ of ISO above _anything_ Bautista ever managed before. His body in the second arc ‘doesn’t look the same,’ unsurprisingly.

Players do at times change their skillset; it isn’t common, and isn’t commonly successful, but it can happen. One does find guys who quit swinging at fastballs off the plate away, or finally recognize that the League throws them sliders in certain counts, and so on. There’s nothing in Bautista’s batting profile that suggests that. And such empirical ‘evidence’ isn’t always what it seems. Yes, Sammy Sosa started laying off some pitches after he and his numbers got big; but we know his real improvements weren’t a matter of skill. Melky Cabrera didn’t have an ‘imperfect arc,’ he didn’t ‘figure things out’ at the plate; he went from milky to MELKY! to murky to jerky, which strongly looked like pincushion pinball, and was. And with Bautista, he’s drawing a lot more walks, though yes his strike zone judgment was always pretty good, but it’s more a function of what the pitchers choose to throw him now and when given he’s making signicantly more contact than in his early career and taking borderline pitches yard in bunches.

In my view, if anyone _isn’t_ suspicious of Jose Bautista’s change of career ‘trajectory,’ their reasoning faculties are impaired. That’s not proof, but he’s the most suspicious player in the game. Things that seem too good to be true nearly always are. There really isn’t any place for naivete about this given _25 years_ of observational evidence of the impact of PED usage on sports performance, in baseball and elsewhere. Guys who’ve always looked good and driven the snot out of the ball look like Griffey, Jr. and Votto and Stanton,, _always_ looked like that from early amateur days, and there just aren’t ever very many of those guys at one time. Guys who look one way and then look super-duper have been fairly common over the last 25 years of MLB, and we know a lot more about how they got off one track and onto another now.

KJ
Guest
KJ
3 years 7 months ago

Wow. Justin Ruggiano projected to be the 2nd most valuable player. Amazing. Astros fans should be doing backflips.

Izzy Hechkoff
Guest
Izzy Hechkoff
3 years 7 months ago

Giancarlo Stanton must be the best projected player relative to the rest of his team.

Nick C
Guest
Nick C
3 years 7 months ago

Yeah, he edges out David Wright by a hair, it looks like.

Sylvan
Guest
Sylvan
3 years 7 months ago

Wright’s projection isn’t that high. ZIPS picks him to decline by 4 WAR from last year.

qpontiac
Member
Member
qpontiac
3 years 7 months ago

Are Leroy and Giancarlo related?

Rick
Guest
Rick
3 years 7 months ago

So they have exactly two players projected to have an above average OPS, and exactly one player projected to have an above average ERA. Seems like they could make a run at 120 losses.

Baltar
Guest
Baltar
3 years 7 months ago

Not even close to that many losses. See Dan’s comments (and mine) in previous posts on why your reasoning is totally wrong.

Tom
Guest
Tom
3 years 7 months ago

I think the “reasoning” you’re attacking so forcefully is a rhetorical device known as “hyperbole.” Check it out sometime. . . .

James
Guest
James
3 years 7 months ago

41 home runs, 31 doubles, 98 RBI. Fuck the Marlins

jsp2014
Guest
jsp2014
3 years 7 months ago

would that be the most HR ever with <100 RBI?

jsp2014
Guest
jsp2014
3 years 7 months ago

answered my own question (and yes, I know 100 is an arbitrary number): Bonds hit 45 HR and had 90 RBI in 2003 (45 and 101 in 2004). about 1/3 of his hits were HR those years (and he was obviously walked at a historical rate).

Killebrew in ’63, Aaron in ’60, Davey Johnson in ’73, Matt Williams in ’94, the Mick in ’97.

Dunn had 41 and 96 last year.

jsp2014
Guest
jsp2014
3 years 7 months ago

err The Mick in ’58

TKDC
Guest
TKDC
3 years 7 months ago

I love the Greg Dobbs comp to Wes Helms. They even kind of look alike. Only difference is Helms was quite a bit bigger.

Mel
Guest
Mel
3 years 7 months ago

FREE GIANCARLO!

Balthazar
Guest
Balthazar
3 years 7 months ago

DGANCO UNCHAINED11

jsp2014
Guest
jsp2014
3 years 7 months ago

ZiPS has Giancarlo with the highest OPS+ so far, 2 ticks higher than Miggy and 4 higher than Votto. no one else is particularly close. not all that surprising, just interesting that ZiPS is essentially declaring him the best hitter in baseball.

Nick C
Guest
Nick C
3 years 7 months ago

What an insult to Mike Trout.

jsp2014
Guest
jsp2014
3 years 7 months ago

yeah ZiPS only projects Trout at 8 WAR. travesty.

Radivel
Guest
Radivel
3 years 7 months ago

It’s pretty fishy.

Pinstripe Wizard
Member
Pinstripe Wizard
3 years 7 months ago

Definitely bass ackward.

Balthazar
Guest
Balthazar
3 years 7 months ago

Seriously, Stanon may BE the best hitter in baseball. I’d Vote vor Votto, who makes more contact, but Giancarlo is still very young and _years_ away from his peak; consider that.

Stanton may well be the best _player_ in baseball. He’s very good defensively, for instance. A lot of Trout’s value is packed into his speed, and as well the range it gives him on defense, and yes Trout plays a more important position. Dganco drives the ball really, realy well, which is kinda nice to have. Who ‘the best player is’ is a matter of taste, really, because different guys do different valuable things. But yes, Stanton may be the best for several years once the focus on Ks goes is brought into the (diminished) perspective it actually merits.

Radivel
Guest
Radivel
3 years 7 months ago

The Marlins should be thrilled, Chad Qualls closest comparison is Jose Bautista. They can move Stanton to LF now!

Bobby
Guest
Bobby
3 years 7 months ago

I know he isn’t with them, but I was hoping to find a Javier Vazquez projection here. He is looking to make a comeback and this was the last team he played for. I would imagine he would still be pretty solid as he was productive two years ago. Has a projection for him been released elsewhere, or will it be coming in the future?

Other Bill
Guest
Other Bill
3 years 7 months ago

21 WAR

jsp2014
Guest
jsp2014
3 years 7 months ago

is Giancarlo the only thing stopping this from being the worst team of all-time?

Daniel
Guest
Daniel
3 years 7 months ago

If Stanton was at a league average 2 WAR, they would still have a 1 WAR advantage over the Astros’ depth chart projections.

Yo
Guest
Yo
3 years 7 months ago

“All-time” encompasses a lot of suck. You’ve got 40s Phillies teams, 80s Mariners teams, and the Cleveland Spiders.

Adam R
Guest
Adam R
3 years 7 months ago

Yeah, it’s going to be hard for any team ever to be worse than the 1899 Cleveland Spiders. They were so bad that about halfway through the season, teams started refusing to travel to Cleveland for games, because so few fans attended that the visiting teams’ share of gate receipts didn’t even cover their travel expenses (they only played 42 games at home and drew a total of 6,088 fans, or 145 per game).

They lost 101 games…on the road. Their longest winning streak of the season was two games, which they did…once. They allowed 1,252 runs in 154 games, or 8.13 runs per game. They finished EIGHTY-FOUR GAMES out of first place. Over a 162-game season, their .130 winning percentage translates to a 21-141 record.

I think that even the 2013 Miami Marlins will win more than 21 games.

Sylvan
Guest
Sylvan
3 years 7 months ago

The 2003 Tigers managed to be below zero as a team by baseball-reference WAR.

Antonio bananas
Guest
Antonio bananas
3 years 7 months ago

Stanton’s on base is going to be way higher. He’ll get walked a lot more because of the suck that surrounds him.

Nortorious
Guest
Nortorious
3 years 7 months ago

The Marlins are a factory of sadness

Craig Griffey was an Ahole
Guest
Craig Griffey was an Ahole
3 years 7 months ago

Does the factory also process peanuts?

Balthazar
Guest
Balthazar
3 years 7 months ago

Stale ones. You pay extra for salt. And the Coke is flat.

And for all that, the Miami factory mints shiny gold coins the owner pockets on a daily basis. That factory works just fine for what it was designed to produce.

maguro
Guest
maguro
3 years 7 months ago

At least they have that awesome home run sculpture thingy.

Mario
Guest
3 years 7 months ago

i would like to get an idea why every expert is so down on jacob turner when he was with detroit he was a good prospect and now everybody thinks he will only be a #5 starter

marlins12
Guest
marlins12
3 years 7 months ago

Yeah, I don’t understand the Turner projection either? He actually had 7 starts with the Marlins last year and pitched pretty well. Why is he projected to be that bad?

Ugo Colombo CMC
Guest
3 years 4 months ago

Maybe it’s still early to say what’s going to happen, but it’s for the team members to decide. Good post.

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