- FanGraphs Baseball - http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs -

2013 ZiPS Projections – Miami Marlins

Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, are being released at FanGraphs this year. Below are the projections for the Miami Marlins. Szymborski can be found on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other 2013 Projections: Angels / Astros / Athletics / Blue Jays / Brewers / Cardinals / Cubs / Diamondbacks / Dodgers / Giants / Mariners / Mets / Nationals / Phillies / Pirates / Rangers / Rays / Reds / Rockies / Royals / Tigers / White Sox.

Batters
It will come as no surprise to the reader to learn that the 2013 Marlins are likely to be a poor team. That’s not to suggest, of course, that the Miami players themselves will be anything less than committed to flawless victory, but rather that the front office — by way of their deadline and offseason trades — have conspired to make the chances of said flawless victory much less likely.

In the interest of brevity — and because the author is running out of port as he writes this — let’s summarize the projections for Miami’s field players via bullet-point technology:

Regard:
Giancarlo Stanton‘s forecast — which is on par with Ryan Braun‘s (link) and Buster Posey‘s (other link) — suggests that, if healthy, he could contend for MVP candidacy in the National League.
• ZiPS concurs with Justin Ruggiano‘s pronouncement via Twitter from November — regarding the Marlins center-field spot — that Ruggiano’s “got this.” His two-win projection is the second-highest among Miami field players.
• Here’s the departed Jose Reyes‘s WAR projection relative to his replacement Adeiny Hechavarria‘s: 4.3 vs. 1.3.

Pitchers
Now, a similar exercise for pitchers.

Regard:
• Here are the ZiPS WAR projections for 2013 for the (mostly departed) members of the Marlins’ 2012 opening-day rotation: Josh Johnson (3.4 WAR), Mark Buehrle (2.5), Ricky Nolasco (1.6), Carlos Zambrano (0.8), and Anibal Sanchez (2.8).
• Now here are the WAR projections for the Marlins likely 2013 rotation: Nolasco (1.6 WAR), Henderson Alvarez (1.0), Wade LeBlanc (0.9), Nathan Eovaldi (0.7), Jacob Turner (0.2).
• Here’s the total for the 2012 starters: 11.1 WAR. And for the 2013 starters: 4.4 WAR. Would it be fair to say that the present Marlins’ rotation will be worth about six or seven wins fewer than the combined total of the (mostly departed) 2012 starters? Yes, it probably would.

Bench/Prospects
Given the nature of their recent transactions, a thing the Marlins do have is young talent. Both Jake Marisnick (an outfield prospect acquired from Toronto) and Derek Dietrich (a shortstop from Tampa Bay, acquired in the deal that sent Yunel Escobar there) profile as a win better than replacement-level already. They join Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna, already present in the organization. The best of Miami’s pitching prospects — Jose Fernandez, Andrew Heaney, and Justin Nicolino (acquired from Toronto) — appear to have too few innings in the high minors for a reliable ZiPS projections.

Depth Chart
Here’s a rough depth chart for the Marlins, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player (click to embiggen):

Mariners Depth

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Credit to MLB Depth Charts for roster information.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Giancarlo Stanton R 23 RF 569 88 143 31 3 41 98 6 4
Justin Ruggiano R 31 CF 447 51 106 25 1 13 51 15 6
Rob Brantly L 23 C 551 51 135 28 1 9 47 1 3
Christian Yelich L 21 CF 540 64 126 27 4 13 61 21 7
Logan Morrison L 25 1B 488 56 111 25 5 15 60 2 2
Adeiny Hechavarria R 24 SS 624 62 148 25 6 7 52 10 6
Jacob Realmuto R 22 C 502 50 115 17 1 9 44 12 7
Jake Marisnick R 22 CF 604 54 136 26 7 10 57 23 10
Derek Dietrich L 23 SS 615 64 140 30 6 15 68 4 6
Placido Polanco R 37 3B 381 32 93 13 0 3 26 1 0
Donovan Solano R 25 2B 475 46 114 21 3 3 36 6 0
Kevin Kouzmanoff R 31 3B 486 46 115 28 1 11 58 2 1
Marcell Ozuna R 22 RF 589 72 131 26 4 19 69 10 3
Gorkys Hernandez R 25 CF 515 60 108 17 7 4 40 18 8
Carlos Lee R 37 1B 574 54 139 28 2 11 78 3 1
Zack Cox L 24 3B 533 50 127 28 1 9 48 1 1
Juan Pierre L 35 LF 542 67 139 13 5 1 34 35 12
Kyle Skipworth L 23 C 492 54 96 16 2 15 54 1 3
Jeff Mathis R 30 C 255 25 51 12 1 5 27 2 1
Cole Armstrong L 29 C 212 19 44 10 0 4 19 0 1
Craig Tatum R 30 C 127 11 26 4 0 1 10 1 1
Bryan Petersen L 27 RF 532 61 120 20 5 6 39 11 7
Tug Hulett L 30 3B 389 39 83 18 2 5 34 5 3
Matt Downs R 29 1B 315 37 71 14 1 9 36 3 4
Clint Sammons R 30 C 181 18 33 5 0 5 17 1 1
Chris Coghlan L 28 RF 477 60 108 23 3 7 40 9 5
Austin Kearns R 33 LF 232 25 46 8 1 4 17 2 2
Audy Ciriaco R 26 3B 432 42 97 16 3 9 40 10 5
Nick Green R 34 2B 346 34 74 18 1 7 36 2 3
Chris Valaika R 27 2B 455 41 103 20 2 6 38 2 2
Jordan Brown L 29 1B 468 44 115 25 2 6 43 2 3
Shawn Bowman R 28 3B 424 40 88 18 1 9 36 1 1
Kyle Jensen R 25 RF 537 55 110 20 2 17 61 2 1
Joe Mahoney L 26 1B 509 47 119 27 3 9 53 5 2
Chris Aguila R 34 LF 361 33 73 16 1 8 30 3 1
Greg Dobbs L 34 3B 320 26 76 13 1 6 34 2 1
Mike Cervenak R 36 1B 425 45 102 18 0 8 40 2 2
Chase Lambin B 33 2B 414 35 85 14 4 6 34 2 4
Alfredo Silverio R 26 RF 465 58 108 25 8 9 47 7 8

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP BA OBP SLG wOBA
Giancarlo Stanton 569 10.4% 25.5% .320 .322 .286 .367 .606 .401
Justin Ruggiano 447 7.6% 26.0% .162 .331 .260 .318 .422 .322
Rob Brantly 551 5.1% 14.0% .111 .292 .263 .305 .374 .293
Christian Yelich 540 8.1% 25.4% .150 .328 .255 .317 .405 .316
Logan Morrison 488 10.9% 17.6% .187 .291 .259 .344 .446 .339
Adeiny Hechavarria 624 4.6% 18.9% .100 .305 .254 .289 .354 .278
Jacob Realmuto 502 5.6% 20.1% .099 .297 .248 .296 .347 .281
Jake Marisnick 604 5.3% 20.7% .127 .299 .246 .301 .373 .295
Derek Dietrich 615 4.4% 21.8% .154 .295 .246 .294 .400 .297
Placido Polanco 381 6.3% 7.9% .064 .282 .266 .315 .330 .284
Donovan Solano 475 5.1% 16.4% .082 .307 .260 .300 .342 .281
Kevin Kouzmanoff 486 3.5% 17.7% .137 .285 .252 .285 .389 .290
Marcell Ozuna 589 6.5% 27.0% .167 .304 .240 .291 .407 .304
Gorkys Hernandez 515 7.6% 25.6% .093 .317 .234 .301 .327 .278
Carlos Lee 574 8.4% 8.9% .125 .277 .268 .329 .393 .312
Zack Cox 533 5.1% 22.9% .114 .319 .255 .298 .369 .290
Juan Pierre 542 5.2% 5.9% .053 .301 .284 .332 .337 .295
Kyle Skipworth 492 5.9% 35.2% .142 .299 .211 .262 .353 .264
Jeff Mathis 255 4.7% 27.1% .125 .288 .220 .259 .345 .253
Cole Armstrong 212 8.0% 23.6% .115 .288 .229 .294 .344 .277
Craig Tatum 127 7.1% 20.5% .060 .278 .224 .278 .284 .249
Bryan Petersen 532 8.3% 19.7% .101 .310 .253 .320 .354 .292
Tug Hulett 389 8.5% 20.8% .106 .292 .237 .302 .343 .283
Matt Downs 315 6.0% 18.7% .150 .281 .247 .306 .397 .302
Clint Sammons 181 5.5% 26.0% .120 .241 .199 .250 .319 .249
Chris Coghlan 477 8.6% 15.1% .117 .288 .254 .322 .371 .302
Austin Kearns 232 11.2% 25.0% .111 .307 .231 .338 .342 .303
Audy Ciriaco 432 2.8% 21.8% .118 .280 .233 .258 .351 .264
Nick Green 346 4.6% 21.4% .130 .280 .233 .281 .363 .274
Chris Valaika 455 4.0% 19.6% .099 .290 .242 .277 .341 .268
Jordan Brown 468 4.3% 13.9% .107 .292 .261 .294 .368 .285
Shawn Bowman 424 4.7% 31.6% .118 .306 .220 .262 .338 .260
Kyle Jensen 537 7.8% 34.3% .154 .321 .226 .291 .380 .293
Joe Mahoney 509 5.3% 21.8% .127 .309 .253 .299 .380 .293
Chris Aguila 361 6.6% 28.5% .126 .293 .221 .278 .347 .274
Greg Dobbs 320 4.7% 17.5% .111 .290 .254 .288 .365 .278
Mike Cervenak 425 5.2% 14.4% .106 .285 .258 .301 .364 .288
Chase Lambin 414 6.0% 24.2% .107 .287 .225 .280 .332 .264
Alfredo Silverio 465 3.4% 22.2% .153 .296 .244 .270 .397 .279

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def WAR No.1 Comp
Giancarlo Stanton 569 8.4 159 7 6.4 Mark McGwire
Justin Ruggiano 447 5.0 99 3 2.0 Leroy Stanton
Rob Brantly 551 4.1 83 1 1.8 Matt Walbeck
Christian Yelich 540 4.8 95 -3 1.6 Mel Hall
Logan Morrison 488 5.6 113 -3 1.4 Benny Distefano
Adeiny Hechavarria 624 3.7 74 3 1.3 Ronny Cedeno
Jacob Realmuto 502 3.6 74 2 1.3 Koyie Hill
Jake Marisnick 604 4.1 82 1 1.2 Adam Jones
Derek Dietrich 615 4.1 86 -6 1.1 Ivanon Coffie
Placido Polanco 381 3.9 76 5 1.0 Mark Loretta
Donovan Solano 475 3.9 74 3 0.9 Juan Melo
Kevin Kouzmanoff 486 4.0 81 1 0.9 Aurelio Rodriguez
Marcell Ozuna 589 4.3 87 2 0.8 Dave Henderson
Gorkys Hernandez 515 3.5 71 5 0.7 Herm Winningham
Carlos Lee 574 4.8 95 -2 0.7 Buddy Bell
Zack Cox 533 4.0 80 -2 0.7 Jeff Moronko
Juan Pierre 542 4.5 83 0 0.4 Tony Womack
Kyle Skipworth 492 3.1 65 -4 0.1 Todd Pratt
Jeff Mathis 255 3.1 62 -1 0.1 Chris Curry
Cole Armstrong 212 3.4 73 -3 0.1 Bill Dobrolsky
Craig Tatum 127 2.7 53 1 0.1 Chris Tremie
Bryan Petersen 532 4.0 83 0 0.1 Mike Kingery
Tug Hulett 389 3.6 75 -4 0.0 Rodney Nye
Matt Downs 315 4.2 89 -1 0.0 Guillermo Garcia
Clint Sammons 181 2.6 53 0 0.0 Charlie Greene
Chris Coghlan 477 4.3 88 -5 -0.1 Russ Adams
Austin Kearns 232 4.0 86 -2 -0.1 Junior Spivey
Audy Ciriaco 432 3.2 63 -1 -0.3 Santiago Henry
Nick Green 346 3.5 73 -5 -0.3 Aurelio Rodriguez
Chris Valaika 455 3.3 67 -3 -0.3 Edgar Varela
Jordan Brown 468 3.9 79 0 -0.4 Quinn Mack
Shawn Bowman 424 3.0 61 -2 -0.4 Juan Richardson
Kyle Jensen 537 3.9 80 -5 -0.4 Brent Clevlen
Joe Mahoney 509 4.1 83 -4 -0.4 Andy Lawrence
Chris Aguila 361 3.4 69 -1 -0.5 Felipe Zayas
Greg Dobbs 320 3.8 76 -8 -0.5 Wes Helms
Mike Cervenak 425 3.9 80 -4 -0.6 Ray Knight
Chase Lambin 414 3.1 66 -7 -0.8 Casey Candaele
Alfredo Silverio 465 3.6 78 -5 -1.0 William Strait

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player T Age G GS IP SO BB HR H R ER
Ricky Nolasco R 30 27 27 169.7 122 38 19 187 88 82
Henderson Alvarez R 23 28 28 167.0 85 46 20 188 92 86
Wade LeBlanc L 28 32 25 152.3 110 46 18 167 83 78
Steve Cishek R 27 65 0 69.0 69 29 5 62 28 26
Carlos Zambrano R 32 28 19 117.0 87 60 12 117 63 59
Adam Conley L 23 26 26 121.0 101 63 12 119 66 62
Nathan Eovaldi R 23 29 27 136.3 99 63 15 142 76 71
Ryan Webb R 27 66 0 66.7 46 23 4 69 31 29
Kevin Slowey R 29 18 16 88.7 59 20 12 99 50 47
Grant Dayton L 25 38 3 59.7 55 31 5 57 30 28
A.J. Ramos R 26 67 0 69.7 68 34 7 65 34 32
Jose Ceda R 26 37 0 41.0 42 21 4 37 19 18
Jacob Turner R 22 25 25 137.0 88 62 16 148 81 76
Chad Gaudin R 30 38 3 63.3 50 23 7 66 33 31
Mike Dunn L 28 68 0 60.7 64 35 5 56 30 28
Jonathan Albaladejo R 30 55 0 57.3 56 27 7 53 29 27
Michael Brady R 26 46 0 49.0 43 13 6 49 25 23
Sam Dyson R 25 42 6 73.3 32 27 5 84 41 38
Scott Maine L 28 54 0 60.0 56 31 6 58 31 29
Jon Link R 29 43 0 51.3 40 25 5 52 27 25
Chris Hatcher R 28 50 0 56.3 47 27 6 57 30 28
Zach Phillips L 26 51 0 62.3 45 35 4 64 33 31
Chad Qualls R 34 62 0 55.7 37 16 6 61 30 28
Arquimedes Caminero R 26 28 0 35.0 31 24 3 34 19 18
Tom Koehler R 27 30 26 141.0 102 73 19 153 88 82
Evan Reed R 27 39 0 48.3 36 27 5 50 28 26
Dan Jennings L 26 54 0 60.0 41 31 5 66 34 32
Alex Sanabia R 24 17 16 78.7 44 25 13 92 51 48
John Maine R 32 12 12 56.3 38 36 8 62 39 36
Jordan Smith R 27 53 0 58.3 29 22 6 68 35 33
Doug Mathis R 30 20 16 88.3 44 46 12 108 62 58
Gary Glover R 36 39 0 58.3 42 33 9 64 40 37
Brad Hand L 23 28 28 138.7 101 98 21 147 94 88
Braulio Lara L 24 24 22 104.3 61 77 16 122 81 76
Edgar Olmos L 23 30 19 101.0 70 94 15 115 80 75

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Ricky Nolasco 169.7 734 16.6% 5.2% .305 4.35 3.77 111 96
Henderson Alvarez 167.0 735 11.6% 6.3% .290 4.63 4.53 118 116
Wade LeBlanc 152.3 670 16.4% 6.9% .304 4.61 4.15 118 106
Steve Cishek 69.0 298 23.2% 9.7% .300 3.39 3.21 86 82
Carlos Zambrano 117.0 528 16.5% 11.4% .290 4.54 4.63 116 118
Adam Conley 121.0 545 18.5% 11.6% .297 4.61 4.50 118 115
Nathan Eovaldi 136.3 614 16.1% 10.3% .295 4.69 4.57 120 117
Ryan Webb 66.7 292 15.7% 7.9% .301 3.92 3.35 100 85
Kevin Slowey 88.7 385 15.3% 5.2% .300 4.77 4.34 122 111
Grant Dayton 59.7 267 20.6% 11.6% .302 4.22 4.05 108 103
A.J. Ramos 69.7 308 22.1% 11.0% .299 4.13 4.13 105 105
Jose Ceda 41.0 181 23.2% 11.6% .295 3.95 3.92 101 100
Jacob Turner 137.0 621 14.2% 10.0% .295 4.99 4.80 127 122
Chad Gaudin 63.3 279 17.9% 8.2% .303 4.41 4.14 113 106
Mike Dunn 60.7 273 23.4% 12.8% .305 4.15 3.64 106 93
Jonathan Albaladejo 57.3 252 22.2% 10.7% .291 4.24 4.25 108 108
Michael Brady 49.0 209 20.6% 6.2% .299 4.22 3.79 108 97
Sam Dyson 73.3 331 9.7% 8.2% .300 4.66 4.38 119 112
Scott Maine 60.0 269 20.8% 11.5% .304 4.35 4.28 111 109
Jon Link 51.3 231 17.3% 10.8% .298 4.38 4.32 112 110
Chris Hatcher 56.3 253 18.6% 10.7% .302 4.47 4.41 114 112
Zach Phillips 62.3 286 15.7% 12.2% .303 4.48 4.22 114 108
Chad Qualls 55.7 244 15.2% 6.6% .297 4.53 3.92 116 100
Arquimedes Caminero 35.0 163 19.0% 14.7% .301 4.63 4.58 118 117
Tom Koehler 141.0 649 15.7% 11.2% .300 5.23 5.08 133 130
Evan Reed 48.3 222 16.2% 12.2% .298 4.84 4.69 123 120
Dan Jennings 60.0 277 14.8% 11.2% .311 4.80 4.51 122 115
Alex Sanabia 78.7 353 12.5% 7.1% .296 5.49 5.19 140 132
John Maine 56.3 267 14.2% 13.5% .299 5.75 5.67 147 145
Jordan Smith 58.3 265 10.9% 8.3% .303 5.09 4.57 130 117
Doug Mathis 88.3 419 10.5% 11.0% .308 5.91 5.60 151 143
Gary Glover 58.3 272 15.4% 12.1% .299 5.71 5.31 146 135
Brad Hand 138.7 661 15.3% 14.8% .291 5.71 5.83 146 149
Braulio Lara 104.3 512 11.9% 15.0% .303 6.56 6.34 167 162
Edgar Olmos 101.0 512 13.7% 18.4% .308 6.68 6.64 170 169

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ WAR No. 1 Comp
Ricky Nolasco 169.7 6.47 2.02 1.01 90 1.6 Esteban Loaiza
Henderson Alvarez 167.0 4.58 2.48 1.08 85 1.0 Carlos Silva
Wade LeBlanc 152.3 6.50 2.72 1.06 85 0.9 Andrew Lorraine
Steve Cishek 69.0 9.00 3.78 0.65 116 0.9 Manny Delcarmen
Carlos Zambrano 117.0 6.69 4.62 0.92 87 0.8 Jamey Wright
Adam Conley 121.0 7.51 4.69 0.89 85 0.8 Juan Ovalles
Nathan Eovaldi 136.3 6.54 4.16 0.99 84 0.7 Zach Miner
Ryan Webb 66.7 6.21 3.10 0.54 100 0.4 Rafael Montalvo
Kevin Slowey 88.7 5.99 2.03 1.22 82 0.4 Mark Johnson
Grant Dayton 59.7 8.29 4.67 0.75 93 0.3 Scott Wiggins
A.J. Ramos 69.7 8.78 4.39 0.90 95 0.2 Kevin Barry
Jose Ceda 41.0 9.22 4.61 0.88 99 0.2 Brian Bruney
Jacob Turner 137.0 5.78 4.07 1.05 79 0.2 Balvino Galvez
Chad Gaudin 63.3 7.11 3.27 1.00 89 0.2 Steve Crawford
Mike Dunn 60.7 9.49 5.19 0.74 95 0.2 Ricky Pickett
Jonathan Albaladejo 57.3 8.80 4.24 1.10 93 0.1 Chad Harville
Michael Brady 49.0 7.90 2.39 1.10 93 0.1 Kevin Crafton
Sam Dyson 73.3 3.93 3.32 0.61 84 0.1 Jack Cassel
Scott Maine 60.0 8.40 4.65 0.90 90 0.0 Kevin Tolar
Jon Link 51.3 7.02 4.39 0.88 90 0.0 Miguel Saladin
Chris Hatcher 56.3 7.51 4.32 0.96 88 0.0 Miguel Saladin
Zach Phillips 62.3 6.50 5.06 0.58 88 0.0 Pete Cappadona
Chad Qualls 55.7 5.98 2.59 0.97 87 -0.1 Jose Bautista
Arquimedes Caminero 35.0 7.97 6.17 0.77 85 -0.1 Jeff Smith
Tom Koehler 141.0 6.51 4.66 1.21 75 -0.2 Ryan Glynn
Evan Reed 48.3 6.71 5.03 0.93 81 -0.3 Ryan Baker
Dan Jennings 60.0 6.15 4.65 0.75 82 -0.3 Anthony Ferrari
Alex Sanabia 78.7 5.03 2.86 1.49 72 -0.4 Doug Gogolewski
John Maine 56.3 6.07 5.75 1.28 68 -0.4 Kevin Foster
Jordan Smith 58.3 4.48 3.40 0.93 77 -0.5 Andy Nezelek
Doug Mathis 88.3 4.48 4.69 1.22 66 -0.9 Giovanni Carrara
Gary Glover 58.3 6.48 5.09 1.39 69 -0.9 Johnny Klippstein
Brad Hand 138.7 6.55 6.36 1.36 69 -1.0 Tom Singer
Braulio Lara 104.3 5.26 6.64 1.38 60 -1.8 Ryan Jacobs
Edgar Olmos 101.0 6.24 8.38 1.34 59 -2.0 Troy Carrasco

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.09 ERA and the NL having a 3.92 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected WAR.