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2013 ZiPS Projections – Milwaukee Brewers

Posted By Carson Cistulli On January 11, 2013 @ 10:00 am In 2013 ZiPS Projections,Brewers,Featured | 42 Comments

Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, are being released at FanGraphs this year. Below are the projections for the Milwaukee Brewers. Szymborski can be found on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other 2013 Projections: Angels / Astros / Athletics / Blue Jays / Cubs / Giants / Nationals / Phillies / Rangers / Royals.

Batters
Milwaukee’s is not a stars-and-scrubs offense, per se. It is, however, a stars-and-something offense — owing largely to the presence, first, of left-fielder Ryan Braun and then, second, everyone else on the team, none of whom are as good as left-fielder Ryan Braun. A year after winning the NL MVP award (in 2011), Braun posted the second-highest WAR in the National League last season. Unsurprisingly, he’s projected to be quite good in 2013, as well.

Elsewhere, the team is almost uniformly average. ZiPS is skeptical about Aramis Ramirez‘s capacity to approximate what was actually a career year in 2012. On the other hand, young shortstop Jean Segura‘s failure to play any better than replacement level after arriving in Milwaukee (by way of the Zack Greinke trade) doesn’t appear to entirely mar his projection for 2013.

Pitchers
In the event that the reader finds himself with a dearth of question marks, he (or she, certainly) might consider borrowing some from the Brewers’ rotation. What we find therein is one legitimate and established starter (in Yovani Gallardo) and then an array of decent pitchers for whom durability might be a concern. For one reason or another, none of the team’s provisional No. 2-5 starters (Marco Estrada, Mike Fiers, Chris Narveson, and Mark Rogers) is projected to throw more than 134 innings.

The effects of regression alone will likely ensure that the Brewers’ bullpen doesn’t reach the depths of 2012, which saw the club’s relief corps post one of the league’s worst seasons by Win Probability Added. That said, ZiPS isn’t entirely optimistic about any one member of the projected 2013 bullpen — with the exception, at least, of closer John Axford.

Bench/Prospects
Despite having received low-ish marks in recent years for the overally quality of their farm system, the Brewers have managed to produce a number of high-floored prospects who would help mitigate the effects of injury, for example, at the major-league level. Scooter Gennett, Taylor Green, and Logan Schafer — none of them elite, really — are all projected to post a major-league equivalent WAR of at least 1.0. Moreover, relief acquisitions like Miguel De Los Santos (via waivers, from Texas) and Michael Olmsted (via free agency) have added low-cost depth to the bullpen.

Depth Chart
Here’s a rough depth chart for the Brewers, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player (click to embiggen):

Brewers Depth

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Credit to MLB Depth Charts for roster information.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Ryan Braun R 29 LF 679 98 183 37 4 33 112 24 6
Aramis Ramirez R 35 3B 542 69 138 32 2 23 93 4 1
Rickie Weeks R 30 2B 587 77 129 26 3 22 63 11 3
Jonathan Lucroy R 27 C 460 47 115 20 3 12 63 5 1
Jean Segura R 23 SS 535 61 137 20 7 9 57 26 9
Corey Hart R 31 1B 589 78 141 30 3 27 80 6 3
Carlos Gomez R 27 CF 410 57 93 16 4 13 43 28 5
Norichika Aoki L 31 RF 634 77 166 31 5 7 55 16 6
Martin Maldonado R 26 C 416 36 88 16 0 10 46 1 3
Taylor Green L 26 3B 501 44 114 28 1 12 63 1 2
Nyjer Morgan L 32 CF 432 52 101 12 5 3 26 18 8
Sea Bass Gonzalez R 36 SS 352 37 82 19 1 11 49 1 1
Scooter Gennett L 23 2B 639 62 167 28 5 9 50 10 7
Logan Schafer L 26 CF 456 49 109 20 7 6 39 11 6
Mat Gamel L 27 1B 328 35 76 17 1 11 46 3 0
Jeff Bianchi R 26 SS 489 48 112 21 2 6 46 13 5
Caleb Gindl L 24 RF 572 56 132 28 5 13 58 6 4
Donnie Murphy R 30 2B 221 31 46 12 3 8 37 1 0
Hunter Morris L 24 1B 557 60 133 31 6 20 77 4 2
Khris Davis R 25 LF 473 50 100 22 1 15 58 6 5
Cole Garner R 28 RF 329 34 71 15 4 9 36 4 2
Hainley Statia B 27 3B 357 31 79 14 2 1 29 4 2
Sean Halton R 26 1B 513 44 114 25 2 11 63 2 2
Kentrail Davis L 25 RF 547 56 117 22 7 6 47 16 8
Hector Gomez R 25 2B 275 21 54 12 3 5 27 5 3
Corey Patterson L 33 LF 390 39 86 18 3 7 37 14 6
Josh Prince R 25 CF 473 50 97 18 2 5 31 25 12
Jay Gibbons L 36 RF 303 26 68 14 1 8 39 1 0
Erick Almonte R 35 1B 217 18 48 9 1 3 19 1 1
Blake Lalli L 30 1B 425 43 98 18 0 7 46 0 2
Rene Tosoni L 26 LF 404 39 81 18 2 8 40 4 4

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP BA OBP SLG wOBA
Ryan Braun 679 8.8% 16.5% .238 .323 .302 .371 .540 .387
Aramis Ramirez 542 6.6% 13.5% .214 .287 .280 .338 .494 .354
Rickie Weeks 587 10.2% 23.5% .191 .302 .252 .344 .443 .344
Jonathan Lucroy 460 7.0% 16.1% .147 .306 .274 .328 .421 .325
Jean Segura 535 5.6% 14.8% .124 .314 .278 .325 .402 .313
Corey Hart 589 7.5% 22.8% .220 .305 .265 .329 .485 .346
Carlos Gomez 410 5.4% 22.4% .169 .296 .249 .300 .418 .314
Norichika Aoki 634 6.2% 9.1% .107 .308 .288 .342 .395 .323
Martin Maldonado 416 6.3% 25.0% .123 .298 .236 .298 .359 .284
Taylor Green 501 7.6% 19.4% .145 .292 .251 .312 .396 .304
Nyjer Morgan 432 5.8% 16.9% .081 .315 .262 .321 .343 .289
Sea Bass Gonzalez 352 4.0% 19.6% .164 .282 .248 .284 .412 .296
Scooter Gennett 639 3.8% 13.9% .108 .311 .277 .306 .385 .296
Logan Schafer 456 5.7% 15.6% .124 .300 .261 .312 .385 .302
Mat Gamel 328 8.8% 25.6% .179 .325 .261 .332 .440 .329
Jeff Bianchi 489 5.5% 22.1% .095 .311 .248 .290 .343 .275
Caleb Gindl 572 7.9% 21.2% .149 .307 .254 .315 .403 .310
Donnie Murphy 221 6.8% 25.3% .211 .277 .231 .295 .442 .314
Hunter Morris 557 4.3% 23.7% .196 .300 .253 .289 .449 .315
Khris Davis 473 9.9% 27.5% .167 .314 .243 .331 .410 .322
Cole Garner 329 5.2% 28.9% .164 .307 .234 .281 .398 .291
Hainley Statia 357 7.0% 16.2% .065 .290 .242 .297 .307 .268
Sean Halton 513 6.4% 23.8% .132 .301 .243 .296 .375 .291
Kentrail Davis 547 6.8% 26.0% .108 .315 .235 .299 .343 .283
Hector Gomez 275 3.6% 28.7% .128 .277 .208 .242 .336 .246
Corey Patterson 390 4.1% 23.1% .124 .294 .236 .271 .360 .268
Josh Prince 473 7.4% 23.3% .086 .291 .227 .286 .313 .266
Jay Gibbons 303 6.9% 17.5% .145 .274 .245 .300 .390 .295
Erick Almonte 217 6.9% 21.7% .099 .298 .239 .295 .338 .281
Blake Lalli 425 6.4% 18.6% .099 .293 .249 .296 .348 .278
Rene Tosoni 404 6.9% 25.0% .124 .280 .220 .281 .344 .272

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def WAR No.1 Comp
Ryan Braun 679 8.0 141 0 5.8 Matt Holliday
Aramis Ramirez 542 6.3 120 -3 3.4 Hank Majeski
Rickie Weeks 587 5.6 110 -5 2.8 Jeff Blauser
Jonathan Lucroy 460 5.2 99 0 2.5 Terry Steinbach
Jean Segura 535 5.1 94 -2 2.3 Royce Clayton
Corey Hart 589 5.9 115 -2 2.2 Rick Reichardt
Carlos Gomez 410 5.0 90 4 2.1 Tim Raines
Norichika Aoki 634 5.2 98 2 1.7 Ted Uhlaender
Martin Maldonado 416 3.6 76 4 1.3 Pete Beeler
Taylor Green 501 4.4 89 0 1.3 Jamie D’Antona
Nyjer Morgan 432 4.1 79 6 1.2 Tom Goodwin
Sea Bass Gonzalez 352 4.2 84 1 1.2 Pete Suder
Scooter Gennett 639 4.3 84 -3 1.1 Martin Prado
Logan Schafer 456 4.4 86 0 1.0 Bubba Crosby
Mat Gamel 328 5.5 105 -1 0.9 Jerry Willard
Jeff Bianchi 489 3.6 69 1 0.8 Mike Champion
Caleb Gindl 572 4.6 91 1 0.8 Dan Peltier
Donnie Murphy 221 4.6 95 -1 0.7 Caonabo Cosme
Hunter Morris 557 4.7 94 -2 0.5 Rico Brogna
Khris Davis 473 4.7 98 -5 0.5 Joe Vitiello
Cole Garner 329 3.9 80 -1 0.0 Sean Barker
Hainley Statia 357 3.2 63 0 -0.1 Mark Germann
Sean Halton 513 3.9 79 1 -0.1 Bryan Lahair
Kentrail Davis 547 3.6 72 2 -0.2 Jalal Leach
Hector Gomez 275 2.7 53 1 -0.2 Brian Shipp
Corey Patterson 390 3.5 68 2 -0.3 Jalal Leach
Josh Prince 473 3.2 61 0 -0.3 Maiko Loyola
Jay Gibbons 303 4.2 84 -5 -0.3 Dann Howitt
Erick Almonte 217 3.5 70 -1 -0.4 Dusty Wathan
Blake Lalli 425 3.6 73 0 -0.6 Andy Barkett
Rene Tosoni 404 3.2 67 -3 -0.9 Scott Seal

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player T Age G GS IP SO BB HR H R ER
Yovani Gallardo R 27 32 32 194.0 199 70 22 181 88 82
Shaun Marcum R 31 27 27 159.7 140 46 19 152 74 69
Mike Fiers R 28 24 24 134.0 124 48 17 123 62 58
Marco Estrada R 29 21 21 121.0 114 34 15 118 59 55
Wily Peralta R 24 30 29 153.3 135 90 14 151 83 78
Mark Rogers R 25 27 25 109.3 80 85 7 105 61 57
John Axford R 30 68 0 66.3 83 32 7 56 28 26
Francisco Rodriguez R 31 67 0 64.0 70 26 7 58 29 27
Michael Olmsted R 26 39 0 47.3 55 19 5 42 20 19
Chris Narveson L 31 18 15 87.0 72 33 12 92 50 47
Tom Gorzelanny L 30 51 0 65.3 67 29 8 62 32 30
Tyler Thornburg R 24 27 24 121.7 106 64 19 126 75 70
Burke Badenhop R 30 61 0 66.0 48 21 7 70 34 32
Mike Gonzalez L 35 43 0 36.0 40 16 5 33 18 17
Manny Parra L 30 60 0 58.3 57 33 5 57 31 29
Fautino De Los Santos R 27 48 0 56.0 59 30 6 55 30 28
Jairo Asencio R 29 47 0 55.3 52 27 7 54 30 28
Taylor Jungmann R 23 25 25 138.3 73 64 16 159 89 83
Zach Kroenke L 29 30 15 107.3 56 44 13 127 68 64
Tim Dillard R 29 48 0 63.0 46 24 8 69 36 34
Robert W00t3n R 27 55 0 66.7 51 29 8 70 39 36
Vinnie Chulk R 34 32 0 39.7 31 17 5 44 24 22
Jim Henderson R 30 55 0 62.0 64 39 8 59 36 34
Jesus Sanchez R 25 56 0 63.7 44 30 7 68 37 35
Chris Jakubauskas R 34 24 8 57.7 36 26 8 67 37 35
Hiram Burgos R 25 24 20 115.7 76 52 17 133 76 71
Brandon Kintzler R 28 43 0 46.3 35 18 6 52 28 26
Donovan Hand R 27 46 2 72.3 41 23 9 85 44 41
Ariel Pena R 24 25 25 125.7 110 88 18 133 83 78
Darren Byrd R 26 47 0 65.3 48 43 6 68 40 37
Santo Manzanillo R 24 31 0 35.3 27 25 6 39 26 24
Nick Bucci R 22 17 17 80.3 60 42 15 92 58 54
Josh Stinson R 25 39 20 128.0 70 79 16 149 89 83
Miguel De Los Santos L 24 24 10 65.7 67 57 12 68 49 46
Jim Hoey R 30 48 0 52.7 41 47 8 58 40 37
Arcenio Leon R 26 46 0 63.0 53 55 8 67 46 43
Brian Baker R 30 27 18 96.3 60 59 18 115 76 71
Jed Bradley L 23 19 19 99.0 45 59 18 125 81 76
Johnny Hellweg R 24 28 19 100.3 73 101 15 114 82 77

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Yovani Gallardo 194.0 833 23.9% 8.4% .294 3.80 3.57 97 91
Shaun Marcum 159.7 677 20.7% 6.8% .284 3.89 3.79 99 97
Mike Fiers 134.0 573 21.6% 8.4% .280 3.90 4.10 99 105
Marco Estrada 121.0 515 22.1% 6.6% .294 4.09 3.69 104 94
Wily Peralta 153.3 701 19.3% 12.8% .302 4.58 4.42 117 113
Mark Rogers 109.3 518 15.4% 16.4% .289 4.69 4.91 120 125
John Axford 66.3 287 28.9% 11.2% .299 3.53 3.37 90 86
Francisco Rodriguez 64.0 276 25.4% 9.4% .297 3.80 3.50 97 89
Michael Olmsted 47.3 203 27.1% 9.4% .306 3.61 3.54 92 90
Chris Narveson 87.0 386 18.7% 8.5% .299 4.86 4.37 124 112
Tom Gorzelanny 65.3 287 23.4% 10.1% .299 4.13 3.97 105 101
Tyler Thornburg 121.7 555 19.1% 11.5% .299 5.18 5.16 132 132
Burke Badenhop 66.0 289 16.6% 7.3% .300 4.36 3.88 111 99
Mike Gonzalez 36.0 157 25.5% 10.2% .295 4.25 4.01 108 102
Manny Parra 58.3 265 21.5% 12.5% .312 4.47 4.00 114 102
Fautino De Los Santos 56.0 253 23.3% 11.9% .316 4.50 3.99 115 102
Jairo Asencio 55.3 247 21.1% 10.9% .296 4.55 4.38 116 112
Taylor Jungmann 138.3 638 11.4% 10.0% .301 5.40 5.15 138 131
Zach Kroenke 107.3 493 11.4% 8.9% .305 5.37 5.00 137 127
Tim Dillard 63.0 282 16.3% 8.5% .303 4.86 4.48 124 114
Robert W00t3n 66.7 299 17.1% 9.7% .299 4.86 4.52 124 115
Vinnie Chulk 39.7 180 17.2% 9.4% .312 4.99 4.53 127 116
Jim Henderson 62.0 284 22.5% 13.7% .302 4.94 4.74 126 121
Jesus Sanchez 63.7 289 15.2% 10.4% .299 4.95 4.70 126 120
Chris Jakubauskas 57.7 266 13.5% 9.8% .306 5.46 5.11 139 130
Hiram Burgos 115.7 532 14.3% 9.8% .306 5.52 5.22 141 133
Brandon Kintzler 46.3 209 16.8% 8.6% .311 5.05 4.37 129 111
Donovan Hand 72.3 325 12.6% 7.1% .308 5.10 4.70 130 120
Ariel Pena 125.7 598 18.4% 14.7% .309 5.59 5.55 143 141
Darren Byrd 65.3 307 15.6% 14.0% .303 5.10 4.98 130 127
Santo Manzanillo 35.3 170 15.9% 14.7% .300 6.11 5.98 156 153
Nick Bucci 80.3 375 16.0% 11.2% .306 6.05 5.82 154 149
Josh Stinson 128.0 612 11.4% 12.9% .303 5.84 5.64 149 144
Miguel De Los Santos 65.7 322 20.8% 17.7% .309 6.30 6.26 161 160
Jim Hoey 52.7 263 15.6% 17.9% .305 6.32 6.30 161 161
Arcenio Leon 63.0 311 17.0% 17.7% .311 6.14 5.83 157 149
Brian Baker 96.3 463 13.0% 12.7% .303 6.63 6.27 169 160
Jed Bradley 99.0 481 9.4% 12.3% .304 6.91 6.55 176 167
Johnny Hellweg 100.3 516 14.2% 19.6% .310 6.91 6.81 176 174

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ WAR No. 1 Comp
Yovani Gallardo 194.0 9.23 3.25 1.02 110 3.9 Jack McDowell
Shaun Marcum 159.7 7.89 2.59 1.07 107 3.0 Pete Harnisch
Mike Fiers 134.0 8.33 3.22 1.14 107 2.5 Cal Eldred
Marco Estrada 121.0 8.48 2.53 1.12 102 2.0 Chris Carpenter
Wily Peralta 153.3 7.93 5.28 0.82 91 1.6 Frank Williams
Mark Rogers 109.3 6.59 7.00 0.58 90 1.1 Dick Ruthven
John Axford 66.3 11.27 4.34 0.95 118 1.0 Mark Clear
Francisco Rodriguez 64.0 9.84 3.66 0.98 110 0.8 Todd Jones
Michael Olmsted 47.3 10.47 3.62 0.95 115 0.7 Rich Garces
Chris Narveson 87.0 7.45 3.41 1.24 86 0.6 Blaine Beatty
Tom Gorzelanny 65.3 9.23 4.00 1.10 101 0.5 Ed Glynn
Tyler Thornburg 121.7 7.84 4.73 1.41 80 0.4 Matt Kinney
Burke Badenhop 66.0 6.55 2.86 0.95 95 0.3 Jay Tessmer
Mike Gonzalez 36.0 10.00 4.00 1.25 98 0.2 Trever Miller
Manny Parra 58.3 8.80 5.09 0.77 93 0.2 J.C. Romero
Fautino De Los Santos 56.0 9.48 4.82 0.96 93 0.2 Kevin Barry
Jairo Asencio 55.3 8.46 4.39 1.14 91 0.2 Mike Butcher
Taylor Jungmann 138.3 4.75 4.16 1.04 77 0.1 John Johnstone
Zach Kroenke 107.3 4.70 3.69 1.09 78 0.0 Jeff Musselman
Tim Dillard 63.0 6.57 3.43 1.14 86 0.0 Kenny Greer
Robert W00t3n 66.7 6.88 3.91 1.08 86 -0.1 Sean 9R33n
Vinnie Chulk 39.7 7.03 3.85 1.13 83 -0.1 Jason Childers
Jim Henderson 62.0 9.29 5.66 1.16 84 -0.1 Calvin Jones
Jesus Sanchez 63.7 6.22 4.24 0.99 84 -0.1 Scott Munter
Chris Jakubauskas 57.7 5.62 4.06 1.25 76 -0.1 Vladimir Nunez
Hiram Burgos 115.7 5.91 4.04 1.32 75 -0.1 Chuck McGrath
Brandon Kintzler 46.3 6.80 3.50 1.17 82 -0.1 John Koronka
Donovan Hand 72.3 5.10 2.86 1.12 82 -0.1 Bill Fischer
Ariel Pena 125.7 7.88 6.30 1.29 75 -0.2 Larry Mitchell
Darren Byrd 65.3 6.62 5.93 0.83 82 -0.2 Heathcliff Slocumb
Santo Manzanillo 35.3 6.88 6.37 1.53 68 -0.6 Agustin Montero
Nick Bucci 80.3 6.72 4.71 1.68 69 -0.6 Chris Clemons
Josh Stinson 128.0 4.92 5.55 1.13 71 -0.7 Jeff Wigdahl
Miguel De Los Santos 65.7 9.18 7.81 1.64 66 -0.8 Roberto Duran
Jim Hoey 52.7 7.00 8.03 1.37 66 -1.0 Marty McLeary
Arcenio Leon 63.0 7.57 7.86 1.14 68 -1.0 Heathcliff Slocumb
Brian Baker 96.3 5.61 5.51 1.68 63 -1.5 Giovanni Carrara
Jed Bradley 99.0 4.09 5.36 1.64 60 -1.8 Josh Stewart
Johnny Hellweg 100.3 6.55 9.06 1.35 60 -1.8 Ken Jones

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.09 ERA and the NL having a 3.92 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected WAR.


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