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2013 ZiPS Projections – Minnesota Twins

Posted By Carson Cistulli On February 7, 2013 @ 8:00 am In 2013 ZiPS Projections,Twins | 48 Comments

Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, are being released at FanGraphs this year. Below are the projections for the Minnesota Twins. Szymborski can be found on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other 2013 Projections: Angels / Astros / Athletics / Blue Jays / Brewers / Cardinals / Cubs / Diamondbacks / Dodgers / Giants / Mariners / Marlins / Mets / Nationals / Padres / Phillies / Pirates / Rangers / Rays / Reds / Rockies / Royals / Tigers / White Sox / Yankees.

Batters
The Twins probably don’t have the least impressive set of offensive projections among the now-26 teams considered so far, but they probably do have the least impressive set of offensive projections for a club that also includes a player as good as Joe Mauer. Ben Revere and Denard Span, now both a part of the NL East, combined for seven-plus wins in 2012, and are projected for ca. five wins this season. Their replacements for the moment, Darin Mastroianni and Chris Parmelee — in center and right field, respectively — are projected to be worth only a fifth of that.

The reader will note that Ron Gardenhire‘s actual deployment of Ryan Doumit, Joe Mauer, and Justin Morneau will likely be more nuanced than it’s represented in the depth-chart graphic below. The triumvirate made 48, 42, and 34 starts, respectively, at DH in 2012. Plus, Mauer made 30 starts at first base. Plus, Doumit made 56 at catcher. It’s not unreasonable to assume that they’ll be used similarly in 2013.

Pitchers
The author is using something similar to the rhetorical device called litotes when he suggests that the Twins pitching staff — which features just one pitcher (Glen Perkins) projected to record a park-adjusted ERA better than league average — that the Twins staff is “not spectacular.” Right-hander Vance Worley, for example — acquired from Philadelphia in exchange for Ben Revere — is a perfectly serviceable starter, but miscast as the anchor of a staff.

Some cause for optimism, perhaps, is this: there will likely be competition for the Minnesota rotation. Both Kyle Gibson and Mike Pelfrey (whom the Twins signed this offseason) are returning from Tommy John surgery — and right-hander Rich Harden is returning from his own procedure, as well. Even if none of that group have particularly optimistic projections, the sheer quantity of starting candidates will only benefit the Twins.

Bench/Prospects
While Mastroianni or Parmelee could surpass expectations, it’s unlikely that both will — which could create room for both/either Aaron Hicks and/or Joe Benson in the outfield. Both are capable of playing center. The quite young Oswaldo Arcia also made his way to Double-A last season, and is regarded as something better than replacement level by ZiPS. Among pitchers, another piece acquired in the Philadelphia deal, Trevor May, merits some attention. He’s had difficulty with walks, but not with striking people out, which is one of the best things a pitcher can do.

Depth Chart
Here’s a rough depth chart for the Twins, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player (click to embiggen):

Twins Depth

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Credit to MLB Depth Charts for roster information.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Joe Mauer L 30 C 555 69 144 27 2 10 67 4 3
Josh Willingham R 34 LF 509 65 107 22 1 24 77 4 1
Aaron Hicks B 23 CF 603 77 123 23 7 10 48 19 10
Justin Morneau L 32 1B 443 48 104 23 1 14 59 0 0
Brian Dozier R 26 SS 615 67 139 25 4 8 54 13 6
Chris Herrmann L 25 C 550 57 110 19 2 7 46 3 2
Jamey Carroll R 39 2B 478 52 110 15 3 1 27 8 3
Trevor Plouffe R 27 3B 530 64 116 24 3 19 56 3 5
Joe Benson R 25 CF 474 47 91 20 4 12 42 13 9
Josmil Pinto R 24 C 420 45 90 19 2 9 46 1 1
Chris Parmelee L 25 1B 590 60 131 26 3 14 63 1 2
Ryan Doumit B 32 DH 424 40 99 22 1 12 51 1 0
Oswaldo Arcia L 22 RF 509 57 119 28 5 13 59 3 5
Pedro Florimon B 26 SS 561 54 121 22 4 6 49 13 10
Eric Fryer R 27 C 301 34 59 10 2 4 24 4 1
Drew Butera R 29 C 207 17 43 11 1 2 17 0 0
Eduardo Escobar B 24 3B 503 50 113 17 5 3 37 9 5
Darin Mastroianni R 27 LF 514 58 110 16 5 3 32 34 8
Danny Santana B 22 SS 552 57 124 19 4 8 47 17 16
Tsuyoshi Nishioka B 28 2B 485 55 114 18 5 3 39 12 9
Clete Thomas L 29 CF 382 34 73 16 3 8 36 12 3
Brandon Boggs B 30 RF 434 44 78 17 3 8 37 3 5
Deibinson Romero R 26 3B 542 52 105 19 2 10 52 1 1
Jeff Clement L 29 1B 384 42 81 23 1 10 49 1 1
Wilkin Ramirez R 27 LF 474 50 99 17 4 14 47 14 8
James Beresford L 24 SS 548 51 123 15 3 0 34 5 10
Sean Burroughs L 32 1B 248 20 59 13 0 1 19 1 1
Brian Dinkelman L 29 LF 468 40 98 20 2 4 34 6 4
Ray Olmedo B 32 SS 440 42 99 16 2 1 26 6 5
Evan Bigley R 26 RF 564 52 117 25 2 8 48 3 5

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP BA OBP SLG wOBA
Joe Mauer 555 12.1% 11.7% .127 .327 .299 .386 .426 .345
Josh Willingham 509 11.8% 24.2% .222 .285 .247 .350 .469 .352
Aaron Hicks 603 10.8% 24.9% .126 .301 .232 .314 .358 .295
Justin Morneau 443 9.3% 17.6% .170 .293 .265 .334 .435 .325
Brian Dozier 615 6.2% 15.4% .102 .283 .247 .298 .349 .281
Chris Herrmann 550 8.7% 21.1% .089 .275 .222 .292 .311 .269
Jamey Carroll 478 9.0% 12.1% .057 .298 .261 .331 .318 .288
Trevor Plouffe 530 7.0% 20.6% .181 .272 .241 .300 .422 .309
Joe Benson 474 7.8% 30.8% .149 .292 .213 .287 .362 .282
Josmil Pinto 420 6.0% 22.1% .129 .278 .231 .279 .360 .277
Chris Parmelee 590 9.3% 20.8% .141 .297 .249 .322 .390 .308
Ryan Doumit 424 6.6% 19.1% .155 .292 .256 .311 .411 .309
Oswaldo Arcia 509 6.3% 25.7% .165 .323 .254 .305 .419 .309
Pedro Florimon 561 6.4% 28.3% .094 .330 .237 .291 .331 .267
Eric Fryer 301 8.0% 25.6% .096 .289 .219 .291 .315 .272
Drew Butera 207 4.8% 17.9% .100 .268 .225 .270 .325 .259
Eduardo Escobar 503 4.6% 21.1% .077 .306 .243 .278 .320 .258
Darin Mastroianni 514 8.4% 20.6% .076 .301 .238 .305 .314 .281
Danny Santana 552 4.3% 21.0% .099 .294 .240 .278 .339 .262
Tsuyoshi Nishioka 485 6.6% 13.6% .083 .293 .255 .307 .338 .281
Clete Thomas 382 6.0% 31.9% .130 .289 .206 .258 .336 .261
Brandon Boggs 434 11.1% 29.7% .124 .287 .206 .299 .330 .275
Deibinson Romero 542 7.6% 24.9% .108 .273 .216 .283 .324 .269
Jeff Clement 384 6.8% 26.3% .155 .289 .229 .281 .384 .286
Wilkin Ramirez 474 5.3% 32.3% .152 .306 .223 .268 .375 .279
James Beresford 548 5.5% 15.1% .041 .288 .242 .286 .283 .248
Sean Burroughs 248 4.8% 12.5% .069 .287 .252 .291 .321 .267
Brian Dinkelman 468 6.6% 19.0% .085 .281 .230 .290 .315 .264
Ray Olmedo 440 4.3% 17.3% .056 .294 .242 .278 .298 .248
Evan Bigley 564 3.7% 27.1% .099 .290 .219 .253 .318 .247

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def WAR No.1 Comp
Joe Mauer 555 6.3 125 -2 4.3 Mickey Cochrane
Josh Willingham 509 5.9 125 -5 2.3 Ralph Kiner
Aaron Hicks 603 3.9 86 4 1.7 Larry Whisenton
Justin Morneau 443 5.3 111 1 1.6 Greg Brock
Brian Dozier 615 3.7 79 -2 1.3 Brian Harris
Chris Herrmann 550 3.1 68 3 1.2 Andy Skeels
Jamey Carroll 478 3.9 82 2 1.2 Johnny Temple
Trevor Plouffe 530 4.4 98 -7 1.1 Jeff King
Joe Benson 474 3.4 79 4 0.9 James Sherrill
Josmil Pinto 420 3.5 76 -3 0.8 Joe Depastino
Chris Parmelee 590 4.5 97 -1 0.7 Larry Broadway
Ryan Doumit 424 4.7 98 0 0.6 Dan Rohrmeier
Oswaldo Arcia 509 4.5 98 -3 0.6 Daryl Sconiers
Pedro Florimon 561 3.3 72 -2 0.6 Manuel Lee
Eric Fryer 301 3.2 68 -1 0.5 Luis Taveras
Drew Butera 207 3.1 64 2 0.4 Mike Ryan
Eduardo Escobar 503 3.2 66 3 0.3 Curtis Wilkerson
Darin Mastroianni 514 3.8 72 1 0.3 Andres Torres
Danny Santana 552 3.0 70 -1 0.3 Chris Moritz
Tsuyoshi Nishioka 485 3.6 79 -4 0.2 Melvin Dorta
Clete Thomas 382 3.1 63 1 0.1 Justin Singleton
Brandon Boggs 434 3.2 74 3 -0.1 Jeff Guiel
Deibinson Romero 542 3.1 68 -5 -0.2 Brad Seitzer
Jeff Clement 384 3.8 82 -3 -0.3 Steve Dunn
Wilkin Ramirez 474 3.5 76 -2 -0.5 Nick Gorneault
James Beresford 548 2.6 59 -2 -0.5 Carlos Rojas
Sean Burroughs 248 3.3 70 -2 -0.5 Larry Biittner
Brian Dinkelman 468 3.2 68 0 -0.6 Chip Childress
Ray Olmedo 440 2.9 60 -7 -0.7 Jose Olmeda
Evan Bigley 564 2.7 57 -2 -1.7 Brad Corley

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player T Age G GS IP SO BB HR H R ER
Vance Worley R 25 27 26 148.3 110 50 15 162 79 74
Scott Diamond L 26 30 30 175.0 91 47 16 203 96 90
Carl Pavano R 37 20 20 124.0 64 22 15 143 70 65
Glen Perkins L 30 67 0 64.7 63 20 7 61 28 26
Brian Duensing L 30 43 15 117.3 78 34 14 130 65 61
Mike Pelfrey R 29 18 18 106.3 57 34 12 123 61 57
Trevor May R 23 26 26 136.3 129 81 19 136 82 77
Rich Harden R 31 18 17 90.3 94 39 16 92 54 50
Liam Hendriks R 24 29 29 160.0 92 53 21 184 98 92
Jared Burton R 32 44 0 42.0 35 15 5 41 20 19
Kyle Gibson R 25 16 16 81.3 53 30 11 93 50 47
Matt Capps R 29 53 0 50.0 32 11 7 54 27 25
Samuel Deduno R 29 26 17 91.7 69 62 11 95 57 53
Alex Burnett R 25 67 0 67.0 40 26 6 73 36 34
Josh Roenicke R 30 56 0 75.0 52 38 8 77 42 39
Cole DeVries R 28 27 26 140.0 79 32 22 170 90 84
Kevin Correia R 32 26 23 135.0 76 43 22 156 87 81
B.J. Hermsen R 23 25 25 144.3 64 42 20 175 93 87
Anthony Slama R 29 38 0 41.3 39 29 5 40 25 23
Bryan Augenstein R 26 27 7 64.0 43 23 8 76 41 38
Anthony Swarzak R 27 35 12 106.7 61 34 15 125 67 63
Lester Oliveros R 25 44 0 52.7 44 29 6 54 31 29
Michael Tonkin R 23 46 0 68.0 54 32 8 72 40 37
Scott Elarton R 37 22 22 91.7 37 41 12 105 61 57
Matt Maloney L 29 21 13 77.0 42 19 12 96 51 48
Tyler Robertson L 25 67 0 65.3 51 35 8 69 40 37
Luis Perdomo R 29 59 0 75.7 46 41 8 82 46 43
Casey Fien R 29 50 0 56.3 41 21 9 62 35 33
Tim Wood R 30 51 0 54.0 33 28 6 60 34 32
Caleb Thielbar L 26 32 0 48.0 32 22 7 55 31 29
P.J. Walters R 28 25 23 116.3 78 46 19 134 78 73
Esmerling Vasquez R 29 45 6 80.3 56 53 10 85 52 49
Pedro Hernandez L 24 23 18 101.3 53 32 17 126 71 66
Deolis Guerra R 24 37 4 74.3 52 36 13 85 52 49
Ryan Pressly R 24 30 17 100.0 52 57 16 120 74 69
Nick Blackburn R 31 24 23 126.7 57 40 22 165 92 86
Shairon Martis R 26 25 22 122.0 75 58 24 148 92 86
Luke French L 27 26 23 128.7 58 65 22 159 98 92

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Vance Worley 148.3 657 16.7% 7.6% .309 4.49 4.08 111 101
Scott Diamond 175.0 775 11.7% 6.1% .305 4.63 4.20 114 104
Carl Pavano 124.0 537 11.9% 4.1% .296 4.72 4.32 117 107
Glen Perkins 64.7 275 22.9% 7.3% .297 3.62 3.56 89 88
Brian Duensing 117.3 516 15.1% 6.6% .299 4.68 4.24 116 105
Mike Pelfrey 106.3 476 12.0% 7.1% .300 4.82 4.53 119 112
Trevor May 136.3 626 20.6% 12.9% .300 5.08 5.03 125 124
Rich Harden 90.3 402 23.4% 9.7% .304 4.98 4.79 123 118
Liam Hendriks 160.0 717 12.8% 7.4% .300 5.18 4.84 128 119
Jared Burton 42.0 182 19.2% 8.2% .290 4.07 4.27 101 105
Kyle Gibson 81.3 367 14.4% 8.2% .306 5.20 4.88 128 121
Matt Capps 50.0 215 14.9% 5.1% .287 4.50 4.32 111 107
Samuel Deduno 91.7 432 16.0% 14.3% .296 5.20 5.42 128 134
Alex Burnett 67.0 300 13.3% 8.7% .300 4.57 4.35 113 108
Josh Roenicke 75.0 340 15.3% 11.2% .289 4.68 4.74 116 117
Cole DeVries 140.0 622 12.7% 5.1% .308 5.40 4.95 133 122
Kevin Correia 135.0 604 12.6% 7.1% .291 5.40 5.15 133 127
B.J. Hermsen 144.3 650 9.8% 6.5% .300 5.42 5.11 134 126
Anthony Slama 41.3 193 20.2% 15.0% .297 5.01 4.97 124 123
Bryan Augenstein 64.0 291 14.8% 7.9% .319 5.34 4.58 132 113
Anthony Swarzak 106.7 479 12.7% 7.1% .301 5.32 4.79 131 118
Lester Oliveros 52.7 241 18.2% 12.0% .302 4.96 4.64 122 114
Michael Tonkin 68.0 308 17.5% 10.4% .305 4.90 4.66 121 115
Scott Elarton 91.7 421 8.8% 9.7% .288 5.60 5.64 138 139
Matt Maloney 77.0 346 12.1% 5.5% .313 5.61 4.97 139 123
Tyler Robertson 65.3 300 17.0% 11.7% .302 5.10 4.86 126 120
Luis Perdomo 75.7 350 13.1% 11.7% .296 5.11 5.08 126 125
Casey Fien 56.3 252 16.3% 8.3% .298 5.27 4.86 130 120
Tim Wood 54.0 250 13.2% 11.2% .300 5.33 4.90 132 121
Caleb Thielbar 48.0 221 14.5% 10.0% .306 5.44 5.18 134 128
P.J. Walters 116.3 529 14.7% 8.7% .303 5.65 5.27 140 130
Esmerling Vasquez 80.3 379 14.8% 14.0% .297 5.49 5.57 136 137
Pedro Hernandez 101.3 462 11.5% 6.9% .309 5.86 5.47 145 135
Deolis Guerra 74.3 344 15.1% 10.5% .303 5.93 5.66 146 140
Ryan Pressly 100.0 477 10.9% 11.9% .301 6.21 6.11 153 151
Nick Blackburn 126.7 585 9.7% 6.8% .309 6.11 5.50 151 136
Shairon Martis 122.0 572 13.1% 10.1% .305 6.34 6.10 157 151
Luke French 128.7 610 9.5% 10.7% .299 6.44 6.13 159 151

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ WAR No. 1 Comp
Vance Worley 148.3 6.68 3.03 0.91 91 1.5 George Stablein
Scott Diamond 175.0 4.68 2.42 0.82 88 1.5 Greg Hibbard
Carl Pavano 124.0 4.65 1.60 1.09 87 0.9 Dick Donovan
Glen Perkins 64.7 8.76 2.78 0.97 113 0.8 Dan Plesac
Brian Duensing 117.3 5.98 2.61 1.07 87 0.7 Ray Fontenot
Mike Pelfrey 106.3 4.83 2.88 1.02 85 0.7 Heath Totten
Trevor May 136.3 8.52 5.35 1.25 80 0.4 Paul Abbott
Rich Harden 90.3 9.37 3.89 1.59 82 0.4 Jeff Juden
Liam Hendriks 160.0 5.18 2.98 1.18 79 0.3 Tim Drew
Jared Burton 42.0 7.50 3.21 1.07 100 0.3 Mark Wohlers
Kyle Gibson 81.3 5.87 3.32 1.22 79 0.1 Jon Ratliff
Matt Capps 50.0 5.76 1.98 1.26 91 0.1 Scott Winchester
Samuel Deduno 91.7 6.77 6.09 1.08 79 0.1 Anastacio Martinez
Alex Burnett 67.0 5.37 3.49 0.81 89 0.1 Jeremy Wedel
Josh Roenicke 75.0 6.24 4.56 0.96 87 0.0 Tony Fiore
Cole DeVries 140.0 5.08 2.06 1.41 76 -0.1 Josh Towers
Kevin Correia 135.0 5.07 2.87 1.47 76 -0.1 Dave Johnson
B.J. Hermsen 144.3 3.99 2.62 1.25 75 -0.2 Mike Lincoln
Anthony Slama 41.3 8.50 6.32 1.09 82 -0.2 Calvin Jones
Bryan Augenstein 64.0 6.05 3.23 1.13 76 -0.2 Trey Witte
Anthony Swarzak 106.7 5.15 2.87 1.27 77 -0.2 Brooks McNiven
Lester Oliveros 52.7 7.51 4.95 1.02 82 -0.2 Bob Gibson
Michael Tonkin 68.0 7.15 4.24 1.06 83 -0.2 Ryan Seifert
Scott Elarton 91.7 3.63 4.02 1.18 73 -0.3 Ed Riley
Matt Maloney 77.0 4.91 2.22 1.40 73 -0.3 Jeff Ballard
Tyler Robertson 65.3 7.03 4.82 1.10 80 -0.3 Chad Brown
Luis Perdomo 75.7 5.47 4.87 0.95 80 -0.4 Tom McCarthy
Casey Fien 56.3 6.55 3.36 1.44 78 -0.4 Tom Niedenfuer
Tim Wood 54.0 5.50 4.67 1.00 77 -0.4 Jarod Juelsgaard
Caleb Thielbar 48.0 6.00 4.13 1.31 75 -0.5 Mike Kinnunen
P.J. Walters 116.3 6.04 3.56 1.47 72 -0.5 Greg Biercevicz
Esmerling Vasquez 80.3 6.28 5.94 1.12 74 -0.5 Jarod Juelsgaard
Pedro Hernandez 101.3 4.71 2.84 1.51 70 -0.7 Mike Ramsey
Deolis Guerra 74.3 6.30 4.36 1.57 69 -0.9 Jeff Robinson
Ryan Pressly 100.0 4.68 5.13 1.44 66 -1.2 Steve Buckholz
Nick Blackburn 126.7 4.05 2.84 1.56 67 -1.2 Dave Johnson
Shairon Martis 122.0 5.53 4.28 1.77 64 -1.5 David Walters
Luke French 128.7 4.06 4.55 1.54 64 -1.7 Dan Smith

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.09 ERA and the NL having a 3.92 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected WAR.


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