2013 ZiPS Projections – New York Mets

Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, are being released at FanGraphs this year. Below are the projections for the New York Mets. Szymborski can be found on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other 2013 Projections: Angels / Astros / Athletics / Blue Jays / Brewers / Cubs / Giants / Nationals / Phillies / Pirates / Rangers / Rockies / Royals / White Sox.

Batters
Because the author is consumed with sloth, he will not look at the 14 clubs previously considered in this series to verify it, but will instead state the following — namely, that there is a very good chance that Lucas Duda‘s projected defensive rating (-11 runs in left field) is the worst we’ve seen so far. It is also possible, if not likely, that Dan Murphy‘s own defensive projection (-7 runs at second base) is the second worst so far by that measure.

Are there bright spots among the Mets’ starting field players? Okay. David Wright remains an All Star candidate, certainly. Ruben Tejada‘s performance as a 22-year-old last season has bred encouragement for his future, as well. Furthermore, giving at-bats to players like Andrew Brown, Collin Cowgill, and Anthony Recker — that is, young-ish sorts who’ve demonstrated promise, but have little major-league experience — could produce gains. Otherwise, though, there is little cause for optimism from this squad in its present incarnation.

Pitchers
In 2012, only two pitching staffs (San Diego’s and Minnesota’s) produced a collective WAR of 6.0 or less — which is to say, posting a figure of 6.0 or less is something like an outlier so far as pitching staffs, and the WAR they produce, is concerned. That a system like ZiPS — conservative by nature, owing to the presence of regression — would project, then, a collective WAR as low as ca. 6.0 WAR for a team’s pitching staff is discouraging.

The Mets, of course, are not bound to the particular fate being presented here. It’s possible that Johan Santana will survive for more than 100 innings. It’s even more possible that Jenrry Mejia won’t be given the opportunity to make 13 or whatever entirely fruitless starts. It’s thirdly possible that the club will extract some sort of value from the bullpen. The likely outcome is poor, is the point.

Bench/Prospects
There is hope for the Metropolitans. As the attentive reader will note, three of the top seven WAR projections among Mets’ hitters belong to players (Travis D’Arnaud, Wilmer Flores, and Juan Lagares) who are likely to begin the season in the minors. Add in Wilfredo Tovar, and that ratio becomes four in 10. The pitching depth isn’t quite so, uh… deep, but ZiPS regards Zack Wheeler as nearly a league-average starter already. Finally — and with sympathies to his most vocal supporterJosh Satin does not appear poised to take the world by storm in 2013.

Depth Chart
Here’s a rough depth chart for the Mets, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player (click to embiggen):

Mets Depth

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Credit to MLB Depth Charts for roster information.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
David Wright R 30 3B 610 81 146 32 2 19 85 18 9
Ruben Tejada R 23 SS 610 59 151 28 2 2 40 7 4
Travis D’Arnaud R 24 C 407 42 97 20 2 13 50 2 1
Ike Davis L 26 1B 481 58 104 23 1 21 70 1 2
John Buck R 32 C 411 34 83 16 1 13 50 0 0
Wilmer Flores R 21 3B 625 66 147 28 3 14 73 2 3
Juan Lagares R 24 CF 577 59 140 24 8 6 54 16 8
Collin Cowgill R 27 CF 514 53 115 22 4 8 54 16 5
Dan Murphy L 28 2B 469 49 123 28 2 6 57 6 3
Wilfredo Tovar R 21 SS 562 58 123 24 4 2 42 13 10
Brandon Hicks R 27 SS 452 50 82 20 2 14 46 8 3
Kelly Shoppach R 33 C 238 21 44 9 1 8 24 0 0
Zach Lutz R 27 3B 353 39 72 14 1 10 37 0 1
Josh Rodriguez R 28 SS 443 45 92 16 2 8 43 5 5
Anthony Recker R 29 C 361 38 74 16 1 10 37 3 2
Matt Den Dekker L 25 CF 624 70 131 25 9 13 63 17 8
Justin Turner R 28 2B 395 44 94 23 1 5 39 4 2
Brad Emaus R 27 2B 365 35 76 15 1 6 33 5 2
Juan Centeno L 23 C 310 28 72 10 2 1 21 2 1
Lucas Duda L 27 LF 563 59 123 26 2 18 74 1 0
Scott Hairston R 33 LF 322 39 75 17 2 12 44 5 2
Ronny Cedeno R 30 SS 373 36 82 17 2 5 37 4 3
Kirk Nieuwenhuis L 25 RF 431 57 92 22 3 10 39 8 5
Fred Lewis L 32 LF 417 50 90 20 5 6 37 12 6
Mike Baxter L 28 LF 360 43 79 17 4 6 34 7 4
Jordany Valdespin L 25 2B 474 51 111 19 3 11 47 20 15
Reese Havens L 26 2B 330 32 57 11 1 7 27 1 1
Brian Bixler R 30 SS 359 40 71 13 2 4 26 10 4
Oswaldo Navarro R 28 SS 318 32 63 11 1 3 25 2 2
Cesar Puello R 22 CF 429 42 88 18 4 7 38 17 7
Sean Kazmar R 28 SS 425 41 90 18 2 4 39 4 3
Andrew Brown R 28 LF 491 48 97 19 2 15 54 3 3
Val Pascucci R 34 RF 432 42 75 15 0 13 47 0 1
Jamie Hoffmann R 28 LF 511 49 106 20 3 9 53 9 4
Josh Satin R 28 1B 574 59 122 27 1 9 55 2 4

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP BA OBP SLG wOBA
David Wright 610 11.3% 20.0% .175 .320 .274 .357 .449 .340
Ruben Tejada 610 6.7% 13.3% .068 .314 .272 .328 .341 .295
Travis D’Arnaud 407 5.4% 24.1% .167 .312 .257 .305 .424 .315
Ike Davis 481 11.0% 24.9% .208 .290 .245 .328 .453 .332
John Buck 411 9.2% 24.8% .156 .277 .227 .305 .383 .296
Wilmer Flores 625 5.0% 15.8% .131 .280 .253 .292 .384 .290
Juan Lagares 577 4.5% 20.5% .107 .318 .258 .294 .365 .287
Collin Cowgill 514 7.4% 20.2% .116 .299 .247 .307 .363 .295
Dan Murphy 469 6.0% 11.9% .115 .310 .282 .325 .397 .311
Wilfredo Tovar 562 6.4% 11.6% .075 .271 .242 .299 .316 .271
Brandon Hicks 452 8.4% 35.2% .162 .289 .201 .277 .364 .283
Kelly Shoppach 238 7.6% 33.2% .168 .295 .212 .301 .380 .297
Zach Lutz 353 9.9% 30.6% .147 .318 .231 .315 .378 .304
Josh Rodriguez 443 7.9% 25.3% .110 .297 .230 .293 .340 .276
Anthony Recker 361 8.3% 26.6% .147 .288 .227 .294 .374 .293
Matt Den Dekker 624 5.6% 32.2% .144 .325 .229 .279 .373 .281
Justin Turner 395 6.3% 12.7% .111 .291 .262 .321 .373 .304
Brad Emaus 365 9.3% 16.4% .108 .268 .235 .309 .343 .288
Juan Centeno 310 5.8% 16.8% .060 .305 .254 .298 .314 .268
Lucas Duda 563 10.1% 23.3% .170 .299 .248 .330 .418 .325
Scott Hairston 322 5.9% 19.9% .191 .281 .252 .301 .443 .320
Ronny Cedeno 373 6.2% 21.7% .105 .298 .240 .288 .345 .269
Kirk Nieuwenhuis 431 7.9% 30.4% .149 .327 .236 .301 .385 .297
Fred Lewis 417 9.6% 24.7% .129 .318 .242 .321 .371 .304
Mike Baxter 360 9.2% 21.1% .135 .305 .248 .328 .384 .310
Jordany Valdespin 474 4.0% 20.5% .131 .296 .250 .286 .381 .282
Reese Havens 330 10.9% 34.8% .118 .298 .197 .292 .315 .271
Brian Bixler 359 7.2% 28.4% .089 .305 .218 .284 .308 .263
Oswaldo Navarro 318 7.9% 21.7% .077 .278 .221 .288 .298 .261
Cesar Puello 429 2.8% 27.7% .118 .297 .222 .272 .340 .270
Sean Kazmar 425 5.2% 17.2% .087 .270 .229 .273 .316 .256
Andrew Brown 491 8.1% 30.3% .154 .291 .220 .288 .374 .286
Val Pascucci 432 12.0% 35.0% .143 .288 .199 .296 .342 .282
Jamie Hoffmann 511 7.6% 22.1% .115 .281 .230 .292 .345 .279
Josh Satin 574 9.9% 27.7% .110 .328 .240 .319 .350 .295

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def WAR No.1 Comp
David Wright 610 6.0 122 -1 4.0 Bob Elliott
Ruben Tejada 610 4.1 86 3 2.2 Bill Knickerbocker
Travis D’Arnaud 407 4.7 99 -2 1.9 Joe Oliver
Ike Davis 481 5.2 114 2 1.9 Paul Sorrento
John Buck 411 4.1 89 -2 1.5 Jody Davis
Wilmer Flores 625 4.0 85 -1 1.2 Blake Dewitt
Juan Lagares 577 3.9 81 3 1.2 Alexis Rios
Collin Cowgill 514 4.1 85 0 1.2 Lou Collier
Dan Murphy 469 4.8 99 -7 1.1 Jeff Treadway
Wilfredo Tovar 562 3.2 71 4 1.1 Aaron Capista
Brandon Hicks 452 3.5 76 -1 0.9 Blake Whealy
Kelly Shoppach 238 3.9 87 -1 0.8 Steve Yeager
Zach Lutz 353 4.1 91 -2 0.8 Roy Smalley
Josh Rodriguez 443 3.4 75 1 0.8 Nick Green
Anthony Recker 361 3.8 84 -4 0.8 Bill Hayes
Matt Den Dekker 624 3.7 79 0 0.8 Todd Dunwoody
Justin Turner 395 4.4 92 -4 0.8 Todd Haney
Brad Emaus 365 3.8 80 0 0.7 John Raifstanger
Juan Centeno 310 3.4 70 1 0.7 Junior Ortiz
Lucas Duda 563 5.0 106 -11 0.7 Jerry Willard
Scott Hairston 322 4.9 103 -3 0.6 Chris Sabo
Ronny Cedeno 373 3.5 74 -1 0.5 Nick Green
Kirk Nieuwenhuis 431 4.0 88 1 0.4 Myron White
Fred Lewis 417 4.2 91 -1 0.4 Michael Tucker
Mike Baxter 360 4.5 96 -2 0.4 Stu Pederson
Jordany Valdespin 474 3.7 83 -4 0.2 Fred Manrique
Reese Havens 330 3.1 68 0 0.2 Jamie Taylor
Brian Bixler 359 3.1 64 -2 0.2 Tommy Murphy
Oswaldo Navarro 318 2.9 63 -1 0.1 Jason Camilli
Cesar Puello 429 3.3 68 -2 -0.1 Luis Saturria
Sean Kazmar 425 3.0 63 -4 -0.2 Joe Millette
Andrew Brown 491 3.7 82 -3 -0.2 Chris Wakeland
Val Pascucci 432 3.4 76 -1 -0.3 Ty Van Burkleo
Jamie Hoffmann 511 3.6 76 -2 -0.4 Chip Childress
Josh Satin 574 3.8 85 -4 -0.4 Chris Shelton

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player T Age G GS IP SO BB HR H R ER
Matt Harvey R 24 30 30 163.3 159 70 16 148 74 69
Jon Niese L 26 29 29 177.3 150 49 19 177 82 77
Zack Wheeler R 23 25 25 141.7 136 69 11 127 64 60
Johan Santana L 34 16 16 94.3 77 29 11 92 45 42
Dillon Gee R 27 23 22 134.3 110 46 18 136 72 67
Cory Mazzoni R 23 25 25 137.3 87 45 15 147 74 69
Bobby Parnell R 28 70 0 69.7 66 25 5 66 29 27
Carlos Torres R 30 36 16 118.7 96 67 11 114 63 59
Chris Young R 34 13 13 70.3 47 25 9 72 37 35
Ramon Ramirez R 31 62 0 64.3 54 30 5 59 29 27
Rafael Montero R 22 19 17 97.0 68 28 13 104 54 50
Jeremy Hefner R 27 30 24 145.0 91 46 16 160 81 76
Frank Francisco R 33 51 0 47.7 53 19 5 43 21 20
Jon Rauch R 34 59 0 50.3 40 13 6 49 24 22
Tim Byrdak L 39 53 0 28.0 31 15 3 23 13 12
Collin McHugh R 26 28 23 132.7 102 59 15 142 77 72
Robert Carson L 24 59 0 67.7 50 30 6 68 34 32
Gonzalez Germen R 25 21 18 107.3 75 41 14 116 63 59
Scott Rice L 31 47 0 53.3 36 29 4 54 28 26
Jenrry Mejia R 23 24 13 75.0 41 37 7 82 45 42
Justin Hampson L 33 55 0 60.3 43 27 6 62 32 30
Aaron Laffey L 28 37 14 105.7 55 48 12 115 62 58
Greg Burke R 30 51 0 63.7 45 28 7 66 34 32
Josh Edgin L 26 52 0 50.7 48 28 7 49 28 26
Chris Schwinden R 26 27 24 129.3 87 48 17 146 78 73
Manny Acosta R 32 58 0 65.0 60 30 8 63 35 33
Jeurys Familia R 23 30 26 126.7 102 84 13 130 77 72
Darin Gorski L 25 25 21 118.0 92 52 20 129 76 71
Elvin Ramirez R 25 58 0 72.7 64 61 7 69 44 41

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Matt Harvey 163.3 708 22.5% 9.9% .292 3.80 3.89 101 103
Jon Niese 177.3 758 19.8% 6.5% .295 3.91 3.65 104 97
Zack Wheeler 141.7 621 21.9% 11.1% .291 3.81 3.83 101 102
Johan Santana 94.3 404 19.1% 7.2% .284 4.01 3.82 106 101
Dillon Gee 134.3 585 18.8% 7.9% .294 4.49 4.38 119 116
Cory Mazzoni 137.3 604 14.4% 7.4% .294 4.52 4.37 120 116
Bobby Parnell 69.7 300 22.1% 8.3% .299 3.49 3.24 93 86
Carlos Torres 118.7 537 17.9% 12.6% .289 4.47 4.53 119 120
Chris Young 70.3 309 15.1% 8.2% .282 4.48 4.42 119 118
Ramon Ramirez 64.3 282 19.3% 10.8% .280 3.78 3.73 100 99
Rafael Montero 97.0 423 16.1% 6.6% .295 4.64 4.48 123 119
Jeremy Hefner 145.0 641 14.2% 7.2% .299 4.72 4.34 125 115
Frank Francisco 47.7 206 25.6% 9.4% .299 3.78 3.34 100 89
Jon Rauch 50.3 213 18.7% 6.2% .280 3.93 3.77 105 100
Tim Byrdak 28.0 122 25.5% 12.3% .286 3.86 3.35 102 89
Collin McHugh 132.7 599 17.1% 9.9% .306 4.88 4.55 130 121
Robert Carson 67.7 301 16.6% 10.0% .295 4.26 4.19 113 111
Gonzalez Germen 107.3 479 15.6% 8.6% .297 4.95 4.73 131 126
Scott Rice 53.3 243 14.9% 12.0% .293 4.39 4.52 117 120
Jenrry Mejia 75.0 344 11.9% 10.7% .294 5.04 4.88 134 130
Justin Hampson 60.3 270 15.9% 10.2% .293 4.48 4.50 119 119
Aaron Laffey 105.7 480 11.5% 10.0% .288 4.94 4.96 131 132
Greg Burke 63.7 285 15.9% 9.9% .295 4.52 4.42 120 117
Josh Edgin 50.7 228 20.9% 12.0% .297 4.62 4.71 123 125
Chris Schwinden 129.3 582 14.9% 8.3% .304 5.08 4.68 135 124
Manny Acosta 65.0 288 20.7% 10.4% .295 4.57 4.35 121 116
Jeurys Familia 126.7 594 17.2% 14.1% .302 5.12 4.95 136 132
Darin Gorski 118.0 535 17.2% 9.8% .298 5.42 5.24 144 139
Elvin Ramirez 72.7 348 18.3% 17.6% .291 5.08 5.18 135 138

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ WAR No. 1 Comp
Matt Harvey 163.3 8.79 3.87 0.89 99 2.2 Mike Bielecki
Jon Niese 177.3 7.62 2.51 0.95 96 2.1 Frank Tanana
Zack Wheeler 141.7 8.62 4.36 0.73 99 1.9 Jason Schmidt
Johan Santana 94.3 7.38 2.76 1.02 94 1.0 Mike Flanagan
Dillon Gee 134.3 7.36 3.09 1.20 84 0.7 Chris Young
Cory Mazzoni 137.3 5.70 2.95 0.97 83 0.6 Josh Fogg
Bobby Parnell 69.7 8.53 3.22 0.70 108 0.6 Bert Roberge
Carlos Torres 118.7 7.31 5.12 0.85 84 0.4 Bill Zuber
Chris Young 70.3 5.97 3.25 1.09 84 0.4 Bob Milacki
Ramon Ramirez 64.3 7.62 4.26 0.73 100 0.3 Marc Wilkins
Rafael Montero 97.0 6.32 2.58 1.21 81 0.3 Gil Heredia
Jeremy Hefner 145.0 5.65 2.85 1.01 80 0.3 Michael Macdonald
Frank Francisco 47.7 9.95 3.65 0.90 100 0.2 Jeff Parrett
Jon Rauch 50.3 7.10 2.35 1.02 96 0.1 Elias Sosa
Tim Byrdak 28.0 10.02 4.83 0.82 98 0.1 Jesse Orosco
Collin McHugh 132.7 6.95 4.01 1.04 77 0.0 Don Robinson
Robert Carson 67.7 6.65 4.02 0.76 88 -0.1 Jonathon Rouwenhorst
Gonzalez Germen 107.3 6.27 3.47 1.18 76 -0.1 Eric Boudreaux
Scott Rice 53.3 6.11 4.92 0.67 86 -0.2 Matt Whisenant
Jenrry Mejia 75.0 4.90 4.43 0.89 75 -0.2 Don Carrithers
Justin Hampson 60.3 6.39 4.10 0.90 84 -0.2 C.J. Nitkowski
Aaron Laffey 105.7 4.72 4.07 1.00 76 -0.3 Rich Rundles
Greg Burke 63.7 6.42 3.98 0.92 83 -0.3 Jake Robbins
Josh Edgin 50.7 8.47 4.88 1.17 82 -0.3 Mike Johnston
Chris Schwinden 129.3 6.02 3.36 1.17 74 -0.3 Andy Taulbee
Manny Acosta 65.0 8.27 4.13 1.12 82 -0.3 Doug Bochtler
Jeurys Familia 126.7 7.24 5.96 0.89 74 -0.4 Brian Wood
Darin Gorski 118.0 7.00 3.98 1.56 70 -0.8 Danny Christensen
Elvin Ramirez 72.7 7.89 7.58 0.85 74 -0.8 Ryan Henderson

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.09 ERA and the NL having a 3.92 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected WAR.




Print This Post



Carson Cistulli occasionally publishes spirited ejaculations at The New Enthusiast.


70 Responses to “2013 ZiPS Projections – New York Mets”

You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.
  1. Tom says:

    So Wrightt is coming off one of the best years of his career and zips has his avg and obp and slugging percentage all cratering? Zips realizes Wright is thirty not thirty five right? David’s projections seem way off.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • TKDC says:

      I don’t think ZiPs understands the nuances of his injuries (that they are less likely than normal back/leg injuries to hinder him going forward). You do have to admit though that he is probably due for a bit of regression and is probably starting to decline. I’d guess more of a 5ish WAR season for Wright.

      Of course, look at the rest of the team. This group could challenge the Marlins for last place.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Red says:

        The rest of the team stunk last year too and he was great. This is a not regression this is a projection of all his skill sets cratering.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • the main difference between this projection and his line from last year is that his BABIP was .347 last year and he’s projected at .320 this year, which is maybe still too generous given that he’s a career .301 BABIPer (though he did hit more line drives in 2012–i wouldn’t be shocked to see that continue and his BABIP come in at .320ish). The only other number that’s way off from last year is K%, which makes sense given that he hadn’t had a K% under 20 since 2008 until last season. It’s hardly projecting a “cratering” skill set. It’s not impossible that he sustains a return to his 2008 form but you can’t use that as a 50/50 projection.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Izzy Hechkoff says:

        @Juan: His career BABIP is .341

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • you are correct. not sure what i was looking at, but feel free to disregard my statement since obviously it’s not based on correct info.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • TKDC says:

        @Red – I was explaining why I’d guess he would be somewhere in between the Zips projection and his 2012 season. His peripherals should regress a bit and since he’s going to be 30 I believe you can’t rule out that he is past his peak. 5 WAR is an all star.

        My comment about the rest of the team was just a childish dig at the Mets; it had nothing to do with Wright’s expected performance.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

    • JG says:

      Wright is still such a tough guy to pin down because his career arc has been so abnormal. Last year he had an MVP-caliber first half and a very poor second half. I wouldn’t really be surprised by any kind of year from him.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Skin Blues says:

      First of all, here are David Wright’s WAR totals from the past few 4 seasons: 3.5, 4.0, 1.9, 7.8. Yes, it’s totally insane to project him for 4.0 WAR. ZiPS must be broken.

      Second of all, stop saying “crater”. It’s a ridiculous term.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  2. Tom says:

    Also Ike’s projects ions seems of to me too. I see Niese, Murphy, Ike, and Wright all being better than these projections.,

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  3. Derek says:

    Also Ike’s projects ions seems of to me too. I see Niese, Murphy, Ike, and Wright all being better than these projections.,

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  4. TheOneWhoKnocks says:

    Zips seems too negative on everyone this year, and bill James is too high on everyone.
    I feel like the real projections are to split the difference in all their numbers.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  5. Red says:

    Count me in among those stupefied by these projections for Wright. Seems like zips is weighing Wright’s 2011 and putting too much stock in it as he was playing with a broken back.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  6. Jeffrey Paternostro says:

    I’m probably the only one who cares about this, but curious as to what position or position(s) Flores was projected at.

    P.S. Thanks for the shout-out, Carson.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  7. Anthony says:

    So what you’re saying is, they’d be better off just putting a bucket in left field?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  8. Maury says:

    Ike Davis. Statistics can’t account for the impact of Valley Fever on his bizarrely awful first two months of 2012. It’s a little strange that despite the depressing circumstances of his start last year, Zips has him hitting 12 fewer home runs. I expect Ike to produce on a level of his second half numbers: .255/.346/.542 with 30-35 home runs.

    Zips does not adjust for likely playing time and platoons. I don’t disagree with this, actually, for the projections themselves, since Zips can’t anticipate how a player will actually be used, and since this gives us a better view for making comparisons. But we do need to be careful about interpretation. Cowgill and Nieuwenhuis will likely have better average stats because they will be platooned; if Duda and Andrew Brown also platoon, their averages will also be significantly better.

    I share the pessimism about the pitching. There is reason for hope in that many players have upsides: e.g., if Santana progresses further in his recovery from his shoulder injury, and there are a lot of young players that could exceed projections (esp. Mejia and Familia, who not long ago were top prospects). But on a bet I would not deviate far from what’s here.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • jda says:

      A .255/.346/.542 line from Ike Davis in Citi Field would make him one of the most valuable hitters in all of baseball. His ISO would be .287. For reference, here are the players (in all of baseball) that ZiPS projects to have an ISO above .250:

      Giancarlo Stanton: .320
      David Ortiz: .294
      Jose Bautista: .291

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Maury says:

        Well, I just took his second half numbers from 2012.

        I.e., he must have been one of the most valuable hitters in all of baseball in the second half of 2012. He also hit 20 home runs during that span (more than what Zips projects for all 2013).

        Vote -1 Vote +1

  9. JohnF says:

    You linked to “Dan Murphy”, rather than “Daniel Murphy”

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4316&position=1B/2B

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  10. Mike Green says:

    The offensive projection for Wright does look a little low, regardless whether you look at 1, 2 or 3 years of history. The problem seems to originate from regression/inferred age-related decline of BABIP. Wright is a bit of a special case, with his long-term history of high line-drive rates, low pop-up rates and power. If you knock up the BABIP 10 points, you probably would get a better projection (in my view).

    On the other hand, his defensive projection is well-nigh impossible to make. The various metrics are consistent, but show a player with absolutely no discernible pattern except tremendous variation. ZIPS takes the middle ground and attaches a little extra weight to his 2012 season. That is probably a bit generous to him.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  11. MSom13 says:

    Is Alexis Rios Alex Rios younger sister or something? I’d be pissed if I was Juan Lagares.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  12. Nick says:

    Looks to be about a 68-72 win team. Looks to be another rough season at Citi Field.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Baltar says:

      The rough invalid ZiPS projection (45 replacement level plus 19 from the depth chart) comes to 64 wins. This is slightly higher than the Astros and way, way lower than any other team so far.
      A rough season indeed. I didn’t realize the Mets had fallen that far.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Nick says:

        Yeah I added in D’Arnaud and some luck because 64 wins is bottom of the barrel most years. They really have no consistently above-average talent. Although I do think Ike Davis is better than projected.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

  13. Sylvan says:

    I think I understand *why* ZIPS is projecting Ike and Murphy to perform way below their career averages, but I still don’t think it’s a good projection.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • BobbyS says:

      Ike’s career: .252/.335/.461, 115 OPS+

      Projection: .245/.328/.453, 114 OPS+

      Am i missing something being way off, other than perhaps his HR, which are projected with ~100 fewer PA than he had in 2012, so I’m guessing the odds for him to match or better that season aren’t too bad.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • jda says:

        Some people may be forgetting that batting lines are down in general across baseball. It’s also easy/tempting to look at an objective projection system like ZiPS and say, “I can do better; I have more information than this system’s algorithms take into account.” The problem there, I think, is that experts’ projections typically perform worse, on average, than ones from ZiPS et al. We’re good at disproportionately finding data to support our gut feelings.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Sylvan says:

        Looking closer, I guess it is partly just playing time, but still, Ike has averaged over 2.9 WAR per 600 PA in his young career.

        ZIPS projects him for both less playing time and lower performance (2.4 WAR/600).

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • jda says:

        Silvan – Ike’s career WAR is largely impacted by those ~10 runs saved a few years back. ZiPS is projecting him as an only slight above-average defensive first baseman. If you look at oWAR instead of accounting for defense as well, you’ll find that Ike’s projected 2013 oWAR looks right on target.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Jon L. says:

        No, this system is grossly underrating Ike Davis’ ability because in the first two months of 2012 he hadn’t recovered from valley fever and hit like a low-level minor leaguer. All evidence before and since suggest that he has a good batting eye and superior power at the major-league level.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

  14. Dan Szymborski says:

    There were 340 hitters that ZiPS projected going into 2012 that ended up getting 200 plate appearances in the majors. In real-life, they combined to hit 262/329/418. Prorating their 2012 projections by their actual playing time, they were projected to hit 262/328/414. In a decade, ZiPS has missed on the optimistic side as often as the pessimistic side.

    Repeating this, ZiPS has missed by more than 10 points of OPS once, in 2010. Which was hardly surprising because it guessed extremely high on offense that year (2009 to 2010 was a 23 point drop in OPS). Going to 2005 (I had simpler models before that), the median ZiPS miss for regulars (in absolute terms) is 5 points of OPS.

    You’ll never see me make grand claims about the accuracy of projections. Individual players are extremely volatile and I’m prone to describing the goal of ZiPS is to be the “least horribly inaccurate method of predicting the future.” I have a long track record of being very blunt and forthright about the nature of projections.

    But here, I’m going to be very firm in defense. There is zero reason to believe that ZiPS has an optimistic or pessimistic bias contained within. Projecting a league in which the batters and pitchers are projected in the same environment and the average team comes out around .500 is one of the easier tasks.

    Here’s an exercise. Think of a player that has been a star over the last 4 years. Now, imagine a distribution of their future results in the next year based on that 4 year average or whatever you eyeballed as his current level of ability. If the distribution you’ve imagined looks like this, give yourself an F.

    If you want a projection system that thinks an average team is 88-74, by all means, don’t use ZiPS or CAIRO or PECOTA or Marcel and instead use the option available that more closely fits your needs. On an ideological level, I’m completely in favor of drug legalization.

    +17 Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Sylvan says:

      I don’t think ZIPS is pessimistic on average. But there are always going to be a few projections that look overly optimistic or pessimistic. ZIPS knows that the average Met is likely to suck. But it doesn’t know how Davis might have been affected by Valley Fever, or, on the other side, that Duda might be an even worse outfielder than it can comprehend.

      I have wondered if team projections based on ZIPS and its ilk may underrate clubs with strong upper-minors depth (which the Mets aren’t, sadly, beyond Wheeler/d’Arnaud), since those teams may have greater flexibility to scout their own players during the season and allocate playing time better than ZiPS could be expected to predict. But maybe that’s all baked in already.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • I try to do that with my Monte Carlo sims. I have all the nth projection splits for all the players and a covariance matrix in order to simulate selection bias (for example, players that are simulated at their 5th-percentile projection are going to get fewer plate appearances than when they are simulated at their 20th or 50th or 75th-percentile).

        The simulation then fills in plate appearances of the simulated backups and minor leaguers until the offense gets to 27*162 outs. So, if Ruben Tejada has a very good year in the simulation, he gets a lot of plate appearances. If he’s simulated to play much worse, he gets fewer and the various utility/AAA players get more of them, especially the ones playing above their projection.

        That’s why I don’t count the added up depth chart WAR as an “official” projection. I try to deal with the issue as rigorously as I am practically able to.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Matt says:

        Does ZiPS have a way of accounting for the Mets medical staff?

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Sylvan says:

        Ah, cool. I’d be interested to venture into the guts of such a simulation. Thanks for the response!

        Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Maury says:

      Of course fans always find projections for their team to be pessimistic. Every player has a range of low-to-high likely performance, and fans tend to anticipate the high end of that range (hope springs eternal!)

      The projections serve as a dose of reality every spring. As a fan I root for the high end outcome, but I know that the projection is the most likely.

      Projections are a baseline, and we’re supposed to debate how accurate they are using anecdotal info or other statistical information. That is how they entertain us.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

    • wobatus says:

      I don’t make a big deal about what ZIPs spits out for any given player. Overall it’s accurate, and certainly less rose-colored than James.

      That said, Murph is .292/.339/.427 for his career, so I think .282/.325/.397 for his age 28 year may undersell him a tad. Or a .311 wOBA when he has never been under .318 in any season and he is .333 overall. Tejada at .295 wOBA when he has been over .300 in his age 21 and 22 seasons. Well, ok, I could see that, but it does seem a bit off to have young players starting to under-perform their career norms. I also think Ike is a little better than this (again, the Valley Fever first half excuse).

      But I’m a fan. When I was a kid I always projected John Milner would break out and hit 30 homers. I’m pretty sure ZIPs was overoptimistic on Duda heading into 2012, so you never know.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  15. Dave says:

    This may be the worst Mets team since the Willie Montanez years. And that is saying something. But hey, at least we have 2014 to look forward to. Or was that 2015?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  16. BurleighGrimes says:

    These are some ugly projections. Yikes.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  17. Mark S. says:

    I’m curious about Harvey only getting 163 IP. Between minors and majors last year, he had 169 IP. Outside of injury, I’d expect him to be a lot closer to 190 IP.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Sylvan says:

      That’s a general feature of projection systems like ZIPS. The possibility of injury is cooked into the playing time projections, so you’ll rarely see any pitcher approach 200 innings in a projection, even though many actual pitchers will reach that level.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  18. Jesse says:

    Oh fuck, where did RA dickey go!

    +5 Vote -1 Vote +1

  19. chuck in Chino says:

    You know your late to posting when you get BEHIND the freakin’ offshore clothing scabs,…

    Hoping some Mets fans and FanGraph experts can help:
    I have seen Familia being ranked as starter and reliever this year. I used to be in the starter camp, but now leaning to the pen.
    Most prognastications seem to cover BOTH, although 26GS seems like A LOT.
    Any idea what his role will be this year (and beyond)?
    Thanks!!

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Sylvan says:

      He may well begin the season starting games in AAA, but most likely that’s just to get him innings to prepare for an eventual MLB pen role. Familia’s really running out of time to improve enough to show he can handle a starting role in the majors.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  20. DoubleDave says:

    I know its a very small chance that Syndergaard sees MLB time this year, but is it possible to get a projection for him?
    I see lots of guys who probably wont sniff the bigs get a projection.

    Thanks Dan for all your hard work.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  21. Ivan Grushenko says:

    Is Niese comparable to the fireballing Frank Tanana or the junkballing Frank Tanana?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  22. Gaving says:

    What is this? No one on the met’s hitting over .300? The lowest ERA of the entire staff is 3.80, and only 3 Pitchers with an ERA under 4.00? Ike Davis’ had a dreadful first half and still hit 32 homeruns, and this says he will only hit 21 in 2013 but his average will go up? Why is Shoppach on this list? WHY IS MANNY ACOSTA ON THIS LIST?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • chuck in Chino says:

      It seems ZIPS does not grant 300 hitters. VERY few 300 hitters in the ZIPS forecasts I have seen this year…
      ERA, not sure, I dont even look at it…

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  23. Gland says:

    How do the players who aren’t on the team anymore impact things? There are quite a few listed.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  24. The Frankman says:

    I think I want to cry…

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  25. Derek says:

    Sorry, dumb question. How is Harvey’s ERA- 101 if his ERA is projected to be 3.80 and NL ERA to be 3.92? Shouldn’t it be below 100?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  26. Might be Josh says:

    Wheeler to throw 142 big league innings will be interesting to see. I know its a zero at their 5th starter so maybe its not crazy that they try to miss the super 2 cut off and let him go. 149 between AA n AAA.

    Oh I just hope the Mets finish above the Marlins.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  27. Der k says:

    Danny Herrera, please.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  28. I’ve been looking for a new good shopping place click in.

    +8 Vote -1 Vote +1

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>