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2013 ZiPS Projections – New York Mets

Posted By Carson Cistulli On January 18, 2013 @ 8:00 am In 2013 ZiPS Projections,Featured,Mets | 70 Comments

Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, are being released at FanGraphs this year. Below are the projections for the New York Mets. Szymborski can be found on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other 2013 Projections: Angels / Astros / Athletics / Blue Jays / Brewers / Cubs / Giants / Nationals / Phillies / Pirates / Rangers / Rockies / Royals / White Sox.

Batters
Because the author is consumed with sloth, he will not look at the 14 clubs previously considered in this series to verify it, but will instead state the following — namely, that there is a very good chance that Lucas Duda‘s projected defensive rating (-11 runs in left field) is the worst we’ve seen so far. It is also possible, if not likely, that Dan Murphy‘s own defensive projection (-7 runs at second base) is the second worst so far by that measure.

Are there bright spots among the Mets’ starting field players? Okay. David Wright remains an All Star candidate, certainly. Ruben Tejada‘s performance as a 22-year-old last season has bred encouragement for his future, as well. Furthermore, giving at-bats to players like Andrew Brown, Collin Cowgill, and Anthony Recker — that is, young-ish sorts who’ve demonstrated promise, but have little major-league experience — could produce gains. Otherwise, though, there is little cause for optimism from this squad in its present incarnation.

Pitchers
In 2012, only two pitching staffs (San Diego’s and Minnesota’s) produced a collective WAR of 6.0 or less — which is to say, posting a figure of 6.0 or less is something like an outlier so far as pitching staffs, and the WAR they produce, is concerned. That a system like ZiPS — conservative by nature, owing to the presence of regression — would project, then, a collective WAR as low as ca. 6.0 WAR for a team’s pitching staff is discouraging.

The Mets, of course, are not bound to the particular fate being presented here. It’s possible that Johan Santana will survive for more than 100 innings. It’s even more possible that Jenrry Mejia won’t be given the opportunity to make 13 or whatever entirely fruitless starts. It’s thirdly possible that the club will extract some sort of value from the bullpen. The likely outcome is poor, is the point.

Bench/Prospects
There is hope for the Metropolitans. As the attentive reader will note, three of the top seven WAR projections among Mets’ hitters belong to players (Travis D’Arnaud, Wilmer Flores, and Juan Lagares) who are likely to begin the season in the minors. Add in Wilfredo Tovar, and that ratio becomes four in 10. The pitching depth isn’t quite so, uh… deep, but ZiPS regards Zack Wheeler as nearly a league-average starter already. Finally — and with sympathies to his most vocal supporterJosh Satin does not appear poised to take the world by storm in 2013.

Depth Chart
Here’s a rough depth chart for the Mets, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player (click to embiggen):

Mets Depth

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Credit to MLB Depth Charts for roster information.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
David Wright R 30 3B 610 81 146 32 2 19 85 18 9
Ruben Tejada R 23 SS 610 59 151 28 2 2 40 7 4
Travis D’Arnaud R 24 C 407 42 97 20 2 13 50 2 1
Ike Davis L 26 1B 481 58 104 23 1 21 70 1 2
John Buck R 32 C 411 34 83 16 1 13 50 0 0
Wilmer Flores R 21 3B 625 66 147 28 3 14 73 2 3
Juan Lagares R 24 CF 577 59 140 24 8 6 54 16 8
Collin Cowgill R 27 CF 514 53 115 22 4 8 54 16 5
Dan Murphy L 28 2B 469 49 123 28 2 6 57 6 3
Wilfredo Tovar R 21 SS 562 58 123 24 4 2 42 13 10
Brandon Hicks R 27 SS 452 50 82 20 2 14 46 8 3
Kelly Shoppach R 33 C 238 21 44 9 1 8 24 0 0
Zach Lutz R 27 3B 353 39 72 14 1 10 37 0 1
Josh Rodriguez R 28 SS 443 45 92 16 2 8 43 5 5
Anthony Recker R 29 C 361 38 74 16 1 10 37 3 2
Matt Den Dekker L 25 CF 624 70 131 25 9 13 63 17 8
Justin Turner R 28 2B 395 44 94 23 1 5 39 4 2
Brad Emaus R 27 2B 365 35 76 15 1 6 33 5 2
Juan Centeno L 23 C 310 28 72 10 2 1 21 2 1
Lucas Duda L 27 LF 563 59 123 26 2 18 74 1 0
Scott Hairston R 33 LF 322 39 75 17 2 12 44 5 2
Ronny Cedeno R 30 SS 373 36 82 17 2 5 37 4 3
Kirk Nieuwenhuis L 25 RF 431 57 92 22 3 10 39 8 5
Fred Lewis L 32 LF 417 50 90 20 5 6 37 12 6
Mike Baxter L 28 LF 360 43 79 17 4 6 34 7 4
Jordany Valdespin L 25 2B 474 51 111 19 3 11 47 20 15
Reese Havens L 26 2B 330 32 57 11 1 7 27 1 1
Brian Bixler R 30 SS 359 40 71 13 2 4 26 10 4
Oswaldo Navarro R 28 SS 318 32 63 11 1 3 25 2 2
Cesar Puello R 22 CF 429 42 88 18 4 7 38 17 7
Sean Kazmar R 28 SS 425 41 90 18 2 4 39 4 3
Andrew Brown R 28 LF 491 48 97 19 2 15 54 3 3
Val Pascucci R 34 RF 432 42 75 15 0 13 47 0 1
Jamie Hoffmann R 28 LF 511 49 106 20 3 9 53 9 4
Josh Satin R 28 1B 574 59 122 27 1 9 55 2 4

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP BA OBP SLG wOBA
David Wright 610 11.3% 20.0% .175 .320 .274 .357 .449 .340
Ruben Tejada 610 6.7% 13.3% .068 .314 .272 .328 .341 .295
Travis D’Arnaud 407 5.4% 24.1% .167 .312 .257 .305 .424 .315
Ike Davis 481 11.0% 24.9% .208 .290 .245 .328 .453 .332
John Buck 411 9.2% 24.8% .156 .277 .227 .305 .383 .296
Wilmer Flores 625 5.0% 15.8% .131 .280 .253 .292 .384 .290
Juan Lagares 577 4.5% 20.5% .107 .318 .258 .294 .365 .287
Collin Cowgill 514 7.4% 20.2% .116 .299 .247 .307 .363 .295
Dan Murphy 469 6.0% 11.9% .115 .310 .282 .325 .397 .311
Wilfredo Tovar 562 6.4% 11.6% .075 .271 .242 .299 .316 .271
Brandon Hicks 452 8.4% 35.2% .162 .289 .201 .277 .364 .283
Kelly Shoppach 238 7.6% 33.2% .168 .295 .212 .301 .380 .297
Zach Lutz 353 9.9% 30.6% .147 .318 .231 .315 .378 .304
Josh Rodriguez 443 7.9% 25.3% .110 .297 .230 .293 .340 .276
Anthony Recker 361 8.3% 26.6% .147 .288 .227 .294 .374 .293
Matt Den Dekker 624 5.6% 32.2% .144 .325 .229 .279 .373 .281
Justin Turner 395 6.3% 12.7% .111 .291 .262 .321 .373 .304
Brad Emaus 365 9.3% 16.4% .108 .268 .235 .309 .343 .288
Juan Centeno 310 5.8% 16.8% .060 .305 .254 .298 .314 .268
Lucas Duda 563 10.1% 23.3% .170 .299 .248 .330 .418 .325
Scott Hairston 322 5.9% 19.9% .191 .281 .252 .301 .443 .320
Ronny Cedeno 373 6.2% 21.7% .105 .298 .240 .288 .345 .269
Kirk Nieuwenhuis 431 7.9% 30.4% .149 .327 .236 .301 .385 .297
Fred Lewis 417 9.6% 24.7% .129 .318 .242 .321 .371 .304
Mike Baxter 360 9.2% 21.1% .135 .305 .248 .328 .384 .310
Jordany Valdespin 474 4.0% 20.5% .131 .296 .250 .286 .381 .282
Reese Havens 330 10.9% 34.8% .118 .298 .197 .292 .315 .271
Brian Bixler 359 7.2% 28.4% .089 .305 .218 .284 .308 .263
Oswaldo Navarro 318 7.9% 21.7% .077 .278 .221 .288 .298 .261
Cesar Puello 429 2.8% 27.7% .118 .297 .222 .272 .340 .270
Sean Kazmar 425 5.2% 17.2% .087 .270 .229 .273 .316 .256
Andrew Brown 491 8.1% 30.3% .154 .291 .220 .288 .374 .286
Val Pascucci 432 12.0% 35.0% .143 .288 .199 .296 .342 .282
Jamie Hoffmann 511 7.6% 22.1% .115 .281 .230 .292 .345 .279
Josh Satin 574 9.9% 27.7% .110 .328 .240 .319 .350 .295

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def WAR No.1 Comp
David Wright 610 6.0 122 -1 4.0 Bob Elliott
Ruben Tejada 610 4.1 86 3 2.2 Bill Knickerbocker
Travis D’Arnaud 407 4.7 99 -2 1.9 Joe Oliver
Ike Davis 481 5.2 114 2 1.9 Paul Sorrento
John Buck 411 4.1 89 -2 1.5 Jody Davis
Wilmer Flores 625 4.0 85 -1 1.2 Blake Dewitt
Juan Lagares 577 3.9 81 3 1.2 Alexis Rios
Collin Cowgill 514 4.1 85 0 1.2 Lou Collier
Dan Murphy 469 4.8 99 -7 1.1 Jeff Treadway
Wilfredo Tovar 562 3.2 71 4 1.1 Aaron Capista
Brandon Hicks 452 3.5 76 -1 0.9 Blake Whealy
Kelly Shoppach 238 3.9 87 -1 0.8 Steve Yeager
Zach Lutz 353 4.1 91 -2 0.8 Roy Smalley
Josh Rodriguez 443 3.4 75 1 0.8 Nick Green
Anthony Recker 361 3.8 84 -4 0.8 Bill Hayes
Matt Den Dekker 624 3.7 79 0 0.8 Todd Dunwoody
Justin Turner 395 4.4 92 -4 0.8 Todd Haney
Brad Emaus 365 3.8 80 0 0.7 John Raifstanger
Juan Centeno 310 3.4 70 1 0.7 Junior Ortiz
Lucas Duda 563 5.0 106 -11 0.7 Jerry Willard
Scott Hairston 322 4.9 103 -3 0.6 Chris Sabo
Ronny Cedeno 373 3.5 74 -1 0.5 Nick Green
Kirk Nieuwenhuis 431 4.0 88 1 0.4 Myron White
Fred Lewis 417 4.2 91 -1 0.4 Michael Tucker
Mike Baxter 360 4.5 96 -2 0.4 Stu Pederson
Jordany Valdespin 474 3.7 83 -4 0.2 Fred Manrique
Reese Havens 330 3.1 68 0 0.2 Jamie Taylor
Brian Bixler 359 3.1 64 -2 0.2 Tommy Murphy
Oswaldo Navarro 318 2.9 63 -1 0.1 Jason Camilli
Cesar Puello 429 3.3 68 -2 -0.1 Luis Saturria
Sean Kazmar 425 3.0 63 -4 -0.2 Joe Millette
Andrew Brown 491 3.7 82 -3 -0.2 Chris Wakeland
Val Pascucci 432 3.4 76 -1 -0.3 Ty Van Burkleo
Jamie Hoffmann 511 3.6 76 -2 -0.4 Chip Childress
Josh Satin 574 3.8 85 -4 -0.4 Chris Shelton

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player T Age G GS IP SO BB HR H R ER
Matt Harvey R 24 30 30 163.3 159 70 16 148 74 69
Jon Niese L 26 29 29 177.3 150 49 19 177 82 77
Zack Wheeler R 23 25 25 141.7 136 69 11 127 64 60
Johan Santana L 34 16 16 94.3 77 29 11 92 45 42
Dillon Gee R 27 23 22 134.3 110 46 18 136 72 67
Cory Mazzoni R 23 25 25 137.3 87 45 15 147 74 69
Bobby Parnell R 28 70 0 69.7 66 25 5 66 29 27
Carlos Torres R 30 36 16 118.7 96 67 11 114 63 59
Chris Young R 34 13 13 70.3 47 25 9 72 37 35
Ramon Ramirez R 31 62 0 64.3 54 30 5 59 29 27
Rafael Montero R 22 19 17 97.0 68 28 13 104 54 50
Jeremy Hefner R 27 30 24 145.0 91 46 16 160 81 76
Frank Francisco R 33 51 0 47.7 53 19 5 43 21 20
Jon Rauch R 34 59 0 50.3 40 13 6 49 24 22
Tim Byrdak L 39 53 0 28.0 31 15 3 23 13 12
Collin McHugh R 26 28 23 132.7 102 59 15 142 77 72
Robert Carson L 24 59 0 67.7 50 30 6 68 34 32
Gonzalez Germen R 25 21 18 107.3 75 41 14 116 63 59
Scott Rice L 31 47 0 53.3 36 29 4 54 28 26
Jenrry Mejia R 23 24 13 75.0 41 37 7 82 45 42
Justin Hampson L 33 55 0 60.3 43 27 6 62 32 30
Aaron Laffey L 28 37 14 105.7 55 48 12 115 62 58
Greg Burke R 30 51 0 63.7 45 28 7 66 34 32
Josh Edgin L 26 52 0 50.7 48 28 7 49 28 26
Chris Schwinden R 26 27 24 129.3 87 48 17 146 78 73
Manny Acosta R 32 58 0 65.0 60 30 8 63 35 33
Jeurys Familia R 23 30 26 126.7 102 84 13 130 77 72
Darin Gorski L 25 25 21 118.0 92 52 20 129 76 71
Elvin Ramirez R 25 58 0 72.7 64 61 7 69 44 41

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Matt Harvey 163.3 708 22.5% 9.9% .292 3.80 3.89 101 103
Jon Niese 177.3 758 19.8% 6.5% .295 3.91 3.65 104 97
Zack Wheeler 141.7 621 21.9% 11.1% .291 3.81 3.83 101 102
Johan Santana 94.3 404 19.1% 7.2% .284 4.01 3.82 106 101
Dillon Gee 134.3 585 18.8% 7.9% .294 4.49 4.38 119 116
Cory Mazzoni 137.3 604 14.4% 7.4% .294 4.52 4.37 120 116
Bobby Parnell 69.7 300 22.1% 8.3% .299 3.49 3.24 93 86
Carlos Torres 118.7 537 17.9% 12.6% .289 4.47 4.53 119 120
Chris Young 70.3 309 15.1% 8.2% .282 4.48 4.42 119 118
Ramon Ramirez 64.3 282 19.3% 10.8% .280 3.78 3.73 100 99
Rafael Montero 97.0 423 16.1% 6.6% .295 4.64 4.48 123 119
Jeremy Hefner 145.0 641 14.2% 7.2% .299 4.72 4.34 125 115
Frank Francisco 47.7 206 25.6% 9.4% .299 3.78 3.34 100 89
Jon Rauch 50.3 213 18.7% 6.2% .280 3.93 3.77 105 100
Tim Byrdak 28.0 122 25.5% 12.3% .286 3.86 3.35 102 89
Collin McHugh 132.7 599 17.1% 9.9% .306 4.88 4.55 130 121
Robert Carson 67.7 301 16.6% 10.0% .295 4.26 4.19 113 111
Gonzalez Germen 107.3 479 15.6% 8.6% .297 4.95 4.73 131 126
Scott Rice 53.3 243 14.9% 12.0% .293 4.39 4.52 117 120
Jenrry Mejia 75.0 344 11.9% 10.7% .294 5.04 4.88 134 130
Justin Hampson 60.3 270 15.9% 10.2% .293 4.48 4.50 119 119
Aaron Laffey 105.7 480 11.5% 10.0% .288 4.94 4.96 131 132
Greg Burke 63.7 285 15.9% 9.9% .295 4.52 4.42 120 117
Josh Edgin 50.7 228 20.9% 12.0% .297 4.62 4.71 123 125
Chris Schwinden 129.3 582 14.9% 8.3% .304 5.08 4.68 135 124
Manny Acosta 65.0 288 20.7% 10.4% .295 4.57 4.35 121 116
Jeurys Familia 126.7 594 17.2% 14.1% .302 5.12 4.95 136 132
Darin Gorski 118.0 535 17.2% 9.8% .298 5.42 5.24 144 139
Elvin Ramirez 72.7 348 18.3% 17.6% .291 5.08 5.18 135 138

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ WAR No. 1 Comp
Matt Harvey 163.3 8.79 3.87 0.89 99 2.2 Mike Bielecki
Jon Niese 177.3 7.62 2.51 0.95 96 2.1 Frank Tanana
Zack Wheeler 141.7 8.62 4.36 0.73 99 1.9 Jason Schmidt
Johan Santana 94.3 7.38 2.76 1.02 94 1.0 Mike Flanagan
Dillon Gee 134.3 7.36 3.09 1.20 84 0.7 Chris Young
Cory Mazzoni 137.3 5.70 2.95 0.97 83 0.6 Josh Fogg
Bobby Parnell 69.7 8.53 3.22 0.70 108 0.6 Bert Roberge
Carlos Torres 118.7 7.31 5.12 0.85 84 0.4 Bill Zuber
Chris Young 70.3 5.97 3.25 1.09 84 0.4 Bob Milacki
Ramon Ramirez 64.3 7.62 4.26 0.73 100 0.3 Marc Wilkins
Rafael Montero 97.0 6.32 2.58 1.21 81 0.3 Gil Heredia
Jeremy Hefner 145.0 5.65 2.85 1.01 80 0.3 Michael Macdonald
Frank Francisco 47.7 9.95 3.65 0.90 100 0.2 Jeff Parrett
Jon Rauch 50.3 7.10 2.35 1.02 96 0.1 Elias Sosa
Tim Byrdak 28.0 10.02 4.83 0.82 98 0.1 Jesse Orosco
Collin McHugh 132.7 6.95 4.01 1.04 77 0.0 Don Robinson
Robert Carson 67.7 6.65 4.02 0.76 88 -0.1 Jonathon Rouwenhorst
Gonzalez Germen 107.3 6.27 3.47 1.18 76 -0.1 Eric Boudreaux
Scott Rice 53.3 6.11 4.92 0.67 86 -0.2 Matt Whisenant
Jenrry Mejia 75.0 4.90 4.43 0.89 75 -0.2 Don Carrithers
Justin Hampson 60.3 6.39 4.10 0.90 84 -0.2 C.J. Nitkowski
Aaron Laffey 105.7 4.72 4.07 1.00 76 -0.3 Rich Rundles
Greg Burke 63.7 6.42 3.98 0.92 83 -0.3 Jake Robbins
Josh Edgin 50.7 8.47 4.88 1.17 82 -0.3 Mike Johnston
Chris Schwinden 129.3 6.02 3.36 1.17 74 -0.3 Andy Taulbee
Manny Acosta 65.0 8.27 4.13 1.12 82 -0.3 Doug Bochtler
Jeurys Familia 126.7 7.24 5.96 0.89 74 -0.4 Brian Wood
Darin Gorski 118.0 7.00 3.98 1.56 70 -0.8 Danny Christensen
Elvin Ramirez 72.7 7.89 7.58 0.85 74 -0.8 Ryan Henderson

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.09 ERA and the NL having a 3.92 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected WAR.


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