2013 ZiPS Projections – New York Yankees

Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, are being released at FanGraphs this year. Below are the projections for the New York Yankees. Szymborski can be found on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other 2013 Projections: Angels / Astros / Athletics / Blue Jays / Brewers / Cardinals / Cubs / Diamondbacks / Dodgers / Giants / Mariners / Marlins / Mets / Nationals / Phillies / Pirates / Rangers / Rays / Reds / Rockies / Royals / Tigers / White Sox.

Batters
It’s probably not entirely correct to say that Robinson Cano is twice as good as any of his field-playing teammates. What does appear to be the case, however, is that — owing to a combination of offensive production, positional adjustment, and durability — Robinson Cano is likely to be twice as valuable in 2013 as any of those same teammates.

Elsewhere, there are a lot of rather low plate-appearance projections among the Yankees batting corps. Brett Gardner, Travis Hafner, Alex Rodriguez, and Kevin Youkilis: none is forecast to make even as many as 500 plate appearances. Of course, A-Rod’s mean projection by that account is already appearing to be rather an optimistic one: according to general manager Brian Cashman, the nominal starting third baseman is expected back from hip surgery in July, but could potentially miss the entire season.

Pitchers
Little has changed, so far as personnel is concerned, among the Yankees rotation. Hiroki Kuroda, Phil Hughes, CC Sabathia, Ivan Nova, and Andy Pettitte made the first-, second-, third-, fourth-, and sixth-most starts, respectively, for New York last season. As a group, they posted a 13.9 WAR over 856.2 innings. As a group, ZiPS projects them for a 12.6 WAR over 801.2 innings — not much different, really.

The bullpen appears to be a source of some strength for the Yankees — both so far as top-end talent and depth is concerned. The effects of Mariano Rivera‘s return are perhaps understated here: despite Rivera’s perpetual excellence, Dan Szymborski’s math computer also probably has doubts about a 43-year-old pitcher who missed almost all of the previous season. Apart from Rivera, the Yankees actually have a real-live relief ace in David Robertson: the right-hander was fifth last season among relievers by xFIP-. Young-ish right-hander Cody Eppley and even younger right-hander Mark Montgomery are both projected to post park-adjusted ERAs better than league average.

Bench/Prospects
In outfielders Tyler Austin and Mason Williams the Yankees have two players who are both entering just their age-21 seasons, but yet are projected to produce the major-league equivalent of something like a win above replacement. Second baseman Corban Joseph is older, but his floor is quite high, and he was among the league leaders by regressed hitting at both Double- and Triple-A last season as a 23-year-old.

Depth Chart
Here’s a rough depth chart for the Yankees, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player (click to embiggen):

Yankees Depth

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Credit to MLB Depth Charts for roster information.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Robinson Cano L 30 2B 672 94 184 42 3 29 100 5 3
Curtis Granderson L 32 CF 626 94 133 20 6 33 93 13 5
Mark Teixeira B 33 1B 574 73 126 27 1 26 90 2 1
Kevin Youkilis R 34 3B 475 63 103 20 2 20 63 2 1
Brett Gardner L 29 LF 342 50 76 11 5 3 24 28 7
Alex Rodriguez R 37 3B 451 59 100 16 1 15 54 8 1
Derek Jeter R 39 SS 555 69 139 20 4 6 53 13 6
Tyler Austin R 21 RF 505 64 115 27 5 19 66 15 5
Casey McGehee R 30 3B 500 50 115 22 1 15 71 1 2
Mason Williams L 21 CF 535 59 136 21 5 13 52 27 19
Ichiro Suzuki L 39 RF 628 84 168 26 5 10 61 29 7
Travis Hafner L 36 DH 322 34 72 13 1 13 47 0 0
Corban Joseph L 24 2B 579 64 125 30 5 12 59 2 4
Dan Johnson L 33 1B 530 59 107 17 1 20 65 1 0
Gary Sanchez R 20 C 466 49 100 20 1 19 62 8 4
Eduardo Nunez R 26 SS 430 46 106 17 2 6 38 21 6
Andruw Jones R 36 LF 254 28 51 9 0 13 37 2 0
Austin Romine R 24 C 345 37 78 15 0 8 38 1 1
Chris Dickerson L 31 CF 294 35 60 13 2 5 23 14 3
Francisco Cervelli R 27 C 332 29 68 11 2 3 31 3 1
Chris Stewart R 31 C 244 24 52 11 0 3 21 2 0
J.R. Murphy R 22 C 466 44 102 25 2 10 47 2 3
David Adams R 26 2B 354 35 81 20 1 6 38 3 3
Thomas Neal R 25 RF 518 63 118 23 2 10 54 7 6
Juan Rivera R 34 LF 417 44 99 17 0 13 66 2 2
Bobby Wilson R 30 C 191 19 41 8 0 4 19 0 1
Jayson Nix R 30 2B 318 32 65 15 1 10 33 6 2
Slade Heathcott L 22 CF 340 38 71 15 2 8 27 14 9
Melky Mesa R 26 CF 539 60 104 22 3 19 61 16 7
Gil Velazquez R 33 SS 448 43 102 14 2 4 32 6 5
Zoilo Almonte B 24 RF 533 52 116 23 3 19 68 12 6
Matt Diaz R 35 LF 207 22 47 10 1 4 24 3 1
Ramon Flores L 21 LF 628 61 137 26 4 13 57 14 7
Colin Curtis L 28 RF 335 29 66 16 1 4 25 6 2
Doug Bernier R 33 SS 259 23 45 9 1 0 14 2 1

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP BA OBP SLG wOBA
Robinson Cano 672 7.3% 12.8% .221 .310 .301 .359 .522 .368
Curtis Granderson 626 10.5% 25.7% .239 .279 .243 .329 .483 .346
Mark Teixeira 574 11.3% 17.1% .217 .266 .256 .348 .474 .352
Kevin Youkilis 475 11.4% 21.1% .208 .289 .256 .360 .464 .355
Brett Gardner 342 11.7% 17.0% .102 .313 .259 .355 .362 .327
Alex Rodriguez 451 9.8% 22.0% .159 .297 .253 .335 .412 .328
Derek Jeter 555 7.2% 13.5% .092 .313 .277 .334 .369 .309
Tyler Austin 505 7.7% 27.5% .204 .315 .249 .311 .453 .329
Casey McGehee 500 7.6% 18.0% .152 .282 .253 .310 .404 .308
Mason Williams 535 4.3% 17.9% .140 .312 .272 .306 .412 .303
Ichiro Suzuki 628 3.8% 9.1% .111 .296 .282 .309 .393 .301
Travis Hafner 322 10.2% 20.2% .194 .291 .258 .351 .452 .342
Corban Joseph 579 9.2% 20.0% .147 .288 .242 .313 .389 .302
Dan Johnson 530 12.3% 18.9% .174 .255 .235 .332 .409 .320
Gary Sanchez 466 5.8% 30.7% .182 .295 .230 .277 .411 .298
Eduardo Nunez 430 4.9% 13.3% .098 .293 .265 .302 .363 .292
Andruw Jones 254 11.0% 26.0% .217 .264 .231 .323 .448 .334
Austin Romine 345 6.4% 19.7% .122 .286 .245 .296 .367 .289
Chris Dickerson 294 10.2% 27.6% .124 .314 .233 .312 .357 .300
Francisco Cervelli 332 7.5% 20.8% .082 .291 .234 .308 .316 .276
Chris Stewart 244 7.0% 13.9% .092 .268 .239 .303 .330 .278
J.R. Murphy 466 5.8% 18.5% .136 .270 .236 .280 .372 .282
David Adams 354 6.5% 20.1% .125 .304 .253 .312 .378 .301
Thomas Neal 518 6.4% 21.6% .121 .308 .251 .313 .372 .299
Juan Rivera 417 6.5% 12.7% .147 .268 .260 .309 .407 .307
Bobby Wilson 191 6.8% 16.2% .119 .276 .244 .301 .363 .279
Jayson Nix 318 6.3% 25.5% .164 .279 .227 .288 .392 .291
Slade Heathcott 340 6.2% 30.9% .138 .317 .228 .287 .367 .284
Melky Mesa 539 5.9% 33.8% .171 .284 .209 .265 .380 .281
Gil Velazquez 448 6.5% 15.2% .074 .290 .250 .303 .324 .273
Zoilo Almonte 533 5.8% 28.3% .173 .294 .233 .280 .406 .295
Matt Diaz 207 5.8% 20.8% .126 .299 .247 .301 .374 .293
Ramon Flores 628 7.2% 20.9% .127 .285 .238 .295 .365 .289
Colin Curtis 335 7.2% 21.5% .098 .268 .216 .278 .315 .261
Doug Bernier 259 8.5% 27.4% .048 .280 .195 .267 .242 .231

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def WAR No.1 Comp
Robinson Cano 672 7.2 133 3 6.0 Charlie Gehringer
Curtis Granderson 626 5.7 115 -5 3.0 Rick Monday
Mark Teixeira 574 6.0 118 5 2.9 Paul Konerko
Kevin Youkilis 475 6.1 120 -3 2.7 Sal Bando
Brett Gardner 342 5.2 94 10 2.0 Gene Richards
Alex Rodriguez 451 5.1 100 -1 1.9 Bob Elliott
Derek Jeter 555 4.6 89 -3 1.7 Luke Appling
Tyler Austin 505 5.2 102 1 1.6 Candy Maldonado
Casey McGehee 500 4.5 90 0 1.3 Jason Wood
Mason Williams 535 4.4 91 2 1.2 Rick Manning
Ichiro Suzuki 628 4.8 87 2 1.1 Sam Rice
Travis Hafner 322 5.8 114 0 1.1 Matt Stairs
Corban Joseph 579 4.2 87 -3 1.0 Boi Rodriguez
Dan Johnson 530 4.8 98 0 0.9 Kevin Barker
Gary Sanchez 466 4.0 82 -5 0.9 Josh Phelps
Eduardo Nunez 430 4.3 78 -4 0.8 Pedro Chavez
Andruw Jones 254 5.2 105 -1 0.7 Jeff Manto
Austin Romine 345 3.8 77 -2 0.7 Jason Hill
Chris Dickerson 294 4.2 79 0 0.6 Pat Sheridan
Francisco Cervelli 332 3.5 69 -1 0.5 Jeff Tackett
Chris Stewart 244 3.6 70 0 0.5 Dave Toth
J.R. Murphy 466 3.6 73 -4 0.5 Ryan Christianson
David Adams 354 4.2 85 -2 0.5 Leo Cardenas
Thomas Neal 518 4.1 83 4 0.4 Ruben Mateo
Juan Rivera 417 4.5 91 0 0.4 Mark Smith
Bobby Wilson 191 3.8 78 0 0.4 Dave Toth
Jayson Nix 318 4.0 80 -3 0.3 Caonabo Cosme
Slade Heathcott 340 3.5 74 2 0.3 Mel Hall
Melky Mesa 539 3.5 71 1 0.2 Chad Hermansen
Gil Velazquez 448 3.4 69 -4 0.0 Jorge Velandia
Zoilo Almonte 533 4.0 82 -1 -0.1 Kevin Roberson
Matt Diaz 207 4.1 80 -1 -0.1 Pedro Swann
Ramon Flores 628 3.8 76 -3 -0.5 Theron Todd
Colin Curtis 335 3.1 59 1 -0.6 Scott Seal
Doug Bernier 259 2.2 39 -5 -0.9 Ray Oyler

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player T Age G GS IP SO BB HR H R ER
CC Sabathia L 32 29 29 202.3 184 52 20 193 87 81
Hiroki Kuroda R 38 29 29 186.0 136 45 26 192 94 88
Michael Pineda R 24 20 20 120.0 102 43 16 117 63 59
Andy Pettitte L 41 16 16 90.3 73 27 10 90 44 41
Phil Hughes R 27 28 27 156.0 129 45 26 161 88 82
David Robertson R 28 67 0 63.0 84 26 6 50 22 21
Ivan Nova R 26 28 28 167.0 125 57 23 181 96 90
David Phelps R 26 29 19 118.3 93 41 16 124 65 61
Freddy Garcia R 36 24 18 109.7 73 34 16 120 64 60
Mark Montgomery R 22 50 0 57.7 67 31 7 51 28 26
Boone Logan L 28 70 0 52.0 58 22 6 47 25 23
Cody Eppley R 27 65 0 57.0 46 22 5 57 28 26
Mariano Rivera R 43 26 0 23.0 22 5 2 21 9 8
Clay Rapada L 32 60 0 39.3 36 17 4 37 19 18
Joba Chamberlain R 27 40 0 40.3 41 12 6 39 20 19
Derek Lowe R 40 29 20 123.7 63 48 13 149 80 75
Jim Miller R 31 50 0 64.7 54 27 10 67 37 35
Ryota Igarashi R 34 52 0 53.7 49 30 6 55 31 29
David Aardsma R 31 16 0 14.7 14 7 2 14 9 8
David Herndon R 27 31 0 39.0 26 13 6 44 24 22
Cesar Cabral L 24 27 0 42.0 31 22 5 47 27 25
Pat Venditte B 28 29 0 45.7 33 22 7 51 30 28
Manny Banuelos L 22 15 15 66.7 48 42 11 75 48 45
Jason Bulger R 34 29 0 31.7 27 25 6 34 24 22
Adam Warren R 25 25 25 131.0 72 60 20 158 92 86
Brett Marshall R 23 26 25 132.7 82 58 25 155 95 89
Francisco Rondon L 25 37 0 56.0 50 42 10 59 41 38
Shaeffer Hall L 25 25 24 138.7 67 43 26 174 100 93
Nik Turley L 23 21 20 95.7 67 53 20 111 73 68
Chase Whitley R 24 43 2 76.7 49 39 16 90 59 55
Jose Ramirez R 23 21 19 92.7 61 52 21 112 76 71
Dellin Betances R 25 24 24 106.7 86 89 20 117 86 80

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
CC Sabathia 202.3 852 21.6% 6.1% .294 3.60 3.48 86 83
Hiroki Kuroda 186.0 795 17.1% 5.7% .284 4.26 4.33 101 103
Michael Pineda 120.0 520 19.7% 8.3% .286 4.43 4.29 105 102
Andy Pettitte 90.3 388 18.7% 7.0% .288 4.08 3.96 97 94
Phil Hughes 156.0 674 19.2% 6.7% .288 4.73 4.56 112 108
David Robertson 63.0 266 31.5% 9.9% .299 3.00 2.84 71 67
Ivan Nova 167.0 739 16.9% 7.7% .301 4.85 4.56 115 108
David Phelps 118.3 520 17.9% 7.8% .297 4.64 4.48 110 106
Freddy Garcia 109.7 483 15.1% 7.1% .290 4.92 4.67 117 111
Mark Montgomery 57.7 254 26.4% 12.0% .299 4.06 4.01 96 95
Boone Logan 52.0 225 25.6% 9.7% .302 3.98 3.63 94 86
Cody Eppley 57.0 250 18.5% 8.8% .294 4.11 3.88 97 92
Mariano Rivera 23.0 95 23.3% 5.0% .291 3.13 2.93 74 70
Clay Rapada 39.3 172 21.1% 9.9% .288 4.12 3.98 98 95
Joba Chamberlain 40.3 172 23.9% 6.9% .300 4.24 3.91 101 93
Derek Lowe 123.7 568 11.0% 8.4% .308 5.46 4.68 130 111
Jim Miller 64.7 288 18.7% 9.2% .298 4.87 4.76 116 113
Ryota Igarashi 53.7 246 19.8% 12.3% .311 4.86 4.65 115 110
David Aardsma 14.7 65 21.6% 11.2% .284 4.91 4.50 117 107
David Herndon 39.0 174 14.8% 7.4% .300 5.08 4.61 121 109
Cesar Cabral 42.0 195 15.8% 11.1% .311 5.36 4.97 127 118
Pat Venditte 45.7 210 15.7% 10.6% .302 5.52 5.27 131 125
Manny Banuelos 66.7 317 15.2% 13.2% .304 6.08 5.89 144 140
Jason Bulger 31.7 154 17.8% 16.3% .299 6.25 6.37 148 151
Adam Warren 131.0 610 11.8% 9.8% .306 5.91 5.60 140 133
Brett Marshall 132.7 611 13.5% 9.5% .296 6.04 5.84 143 139
Francisco Rondon 56.0 269 18.5% 15.7% .298 6.11 6.02 145 143
Shaeffer Hall 138.7 633 10.5% 6.8% .303 6.04 5.69 143 135
Nik Turley 95.7 451 14.8% 11.7% .299 6.40 6.29 152 149
Chase Whitley 76.7 360 13.6% 10.9% .298 6.46 6.23 153 148
Jose Ramirez 92.7 442 13.8% 11.8% .301 6.90 6.69 164 159
Dellin Betances 106.7 526 16.4% 17.0% .300 6.75 6.74 160 160

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ WAR No. 1 Comp
CC Sabathia 202.3 8.20 2.30 0.91 118 4.9 Bruce Hurst
Hiroki Kuroda 186.0 6.56 2.20 1.28 100 3.0 Mark Gardner
Michael Pineda 120.0 7.69 3.24 1.16 96 1.7 Jaret Wright
Andy Pettitte 90.3 7.23 2.73 1.03 104 1.6 Chuck Finley
Phil Hughes 156.0 7.45 2.59 1.47 90 1.6 Adam Eaton
David Robertson 63.0 11.95 3.77 0.81 142 1.5 Bryan Harvey
Ivan Nova 167.0 6.72 3.07 1.24 88 1.5 Chris Carpenter
David Phelps 118.3 7.07 3.09 1.21 92 1.3 Julio Valera
Freddy Garcia 109.7 6.00 2.80 1.32 86 0.8 Bob Walk
Mark Montgomery 57.7 10.46 4.78 1.06 105 0.6 Ryan Bukvich
Boone Logan 52.0 9.98 3.80 1.06 107 0.6 B.J. Ryan
Cody Eppley 57.0 7.32 3.48 0.86 104 0.6 Mark Lee
Mariano Rivera 23.0 8.64 1.85 0.83 136 0.5 Larry Andersen
Clay Rapada 39.3 8.30 3.90 0.94 103 0.4 Marshall Bridges
Joba Chamberlain 40.3 9.15 2.63 1.27 100 0.3 Mike Connolly
Derek Lowe 123.7 4.55 3.47 0.95 78 0.1 Burleigh Grimes
Jim Miller 64.7 7.51 3.71 1.34 87 0.0 Kevin Campbell
Ryota Igarashi 53.7 8.19 5.07 1.00 87 0.0 Heathcliff Slocumb
David Aardsma 14.7 8.66 4.48 1.37 87 0.0 Rich Croushore
David Herndon 39.0 5.95 3.00 1.33 84 -0.1 John Costello
Cesar Cabral 42.0 6.60 4.62 1.15 79 -0.2 Sal Urso
Pat Venditte 45.7 6.48 4.37 1.36 77 -0.3 Ken Vining
Manny Banuelos 66.7 6.50 5.67 1.45 70 -0.4 Norm Charlton
Jason Bulger 31.7 7.78 7.13 1.71 68 -0.5 Archie Corbin
Adam Warren 131.0 4.96 4.09 1.39 72 -0.6 Chris Buglovsky
Brett Marshall 132.7 5.58 3.92 1.71 70 -0.8 Frank Potestio
Francisco Rondon 56.0 8.00 6.81 1.56 70 -0.8 Peter Bauer
Shaeffer Hall 138.7 4.33 2.77 1.67 70 -0.8 Heath Phillips
Nik Turley 95.7 6.26 4.94 1.86 66 -1.0 Steve Bourgeois
Chase Whitley 76.7 5.75 4.59 1.84 66 -1.3 Jeff Robinson
Jose Ramirez 92.7 5.94 5.05 2.08 62 -1.5 Jonah Bayliss
Dellin Betances 106.7 7.28 7.54 1.70 63 -1.5 Miguel Jimenez

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.09 ERA and the NL having a 3.92 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected WAR.




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Carson Cistulli occasionally publishes spirited ejaculations at The New Enthusiast.


48 Responses to “2013 ZiPS Projections – New York Yankees”

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  1. Tom says:

    Given how successful their respective stints in New York have been, there’s something very appropriate about Michael Pineda’s top comp being Jaret Wright.

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  2. ChrisCEIT says:

    I’m still trying to figure this out, but are the WAR projections including defensive contributions? I’m looking at Brett Gardner in specific – even at just 342 PA, 2.0 WAR seems awfully pessimistic.

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    • NeilS says:

      It’s under “Batters, Assorted Other”. And he’s projected to be quite good defensively, yes. (Though given that he’s aging and injury-prone, assuming he won’t be mind-bogglingly amazing is probably reasonable.)

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      • Jim says:

        He suffered an elbow injury last year, which was the first serious injury he’d had since becoming a regular in 2009. He only played 109 games that season, but that was mostly because he was a fourth outfielder with Melky Cabrera ahead of him on the depth chart. His injury last year was fluky — jammed his non-throwing elbow on a sliding catch — and was totally unrelated to his legs or his torso, where most of his value is derived from. He’s also 29.

        Neither the “aging” nor the “injury-prone” labels remotely apply to Brett Gardner. Projecting him for less than 500 PA’s, and less than 4 WAR, seems completely insane to me.

        Also, the prediction is, I think, slightly pessimistic on Phil Hughes, and WILDLY optimistic on Michael Pineda. If Pineda tops 100 IP, I’ll eat my shoes. If I had to give an o/u on total IP by Pineda this season, I’d put it at 20.

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  3. Matt in Toledo says:

    Wow. Usually when the Yankees have a slow offseason, people forget how incredibly stacked they were in the first place. That doesn’t seem to be the case this year. 40 WAR in their depth chart? If that were accurate, it could earn them third (maybe even fourth?) place.

    It’d be bizarre to see the Yankees and Sox finish 4th and 5th this season.

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    • William says:

      Well this has them identical to the Rays (within one win), so I’d say it’s a tie for second. Unless you honestly think the Sox and O’s will be projected above them.

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      • Looking back on this, I realized I converted 40 WAR to 83 wins and then thought it possible two or three teams in the division could beat that. Clearly, there’s some faulty logic in that thinking.

        That said, I was still taken aback with pegging the Yankees at that close to .500.

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    • Paul B says:

      The Yankees will be spending much more freely next year, when they have reset their clock for the luxury tax.

      So enjoy it this year. Next year they’ll sign the two best free agents available, and make a trade for an all star level player in which they trade some mid level prospects and assume a large salary.

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    • Baltar says:

      Bizarre and wonderful.

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  4. maqman says:

    You can out-buy some of the teams all of the time and some of the teams some of the time but you can’t out-buy all the teams all of the time.

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  5. theblackbra says:

    Wow, Ichiro will be pretty worthless, eh?

    I have to say I disagree with this. I know his skills have declined, but I’d bet a good amount of money on the fact that his OBP will not be this low. I can see him reaching a similar OBP as he did last year once he got to the Yankees. Somewhere in the .330 range.

    Someone should call Casey McGahee and tell him he’s more valuable than Ichiro. Just imagine if Ichiro wasn’t good defensively… I’d imagine that’s the only thing keeping his projection afloat.

    Usually I agree with the ZIPS, but I think this one is off a bit. We shall see…

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    • LK says:

      Ichiro last had an OBP higher than that in 2010. It’s pretty hard to call his projection pessimistic.

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      • theblackbra says:

        Coupling his M’s and Yankees stats from this past season, his lowest OBP was .307. Back in 2011, it was .310.

        I know the sample size was smaller, but his run with the Yanks in 2012 was .340, with a pretty high slugging mark of .454. Again, the sample is small, but I believe he will play much better than this projection with a full season in NY.

        Just don’t let the Yankees brass see this. They could have simply invited him to Spring training with no assurances that he would start the season in the Show.

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      • LK says:

        Right. After consecutive seasons of .310 and .307, .309 seems optimistic if anything considering Ichiro’s age.

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      • Steve says:

        Just don’t let the Yankees brass see this. They could have simply invited him to Spring training with no assurances that he would start the season in the Show.

        Ichiro?

        Maybe I am missing the joke, but Ichiro had multi-year offers at more money from the Phillies and the Giants.

        Doesn’t mean the Yankees had to sign him, but a NRI wasn’t happening.

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      • theblackbra says:

        Ok, so Ichiro’s .309 is optimistic, but Hafner’s projection seems legit? Considering his recent few years, Pronk’s slugging seems a tad bit high. It would be better than 10, 11, and 12. And 08. Near his 2007 mark.

        .309 isn’t optimistic. When you factor into Ichiro’s success when he got with the Yankees, I was expecting something closer to .330 with a favorable split vs RHP. Sure, you can attribute it to “he’s old, he will put up even poorer numbers this season” but I believe that’s a cop out. Pronk somehow is just as good as he’s been for years (really, better, considering most folks have written him off), but Ichiro is basically garbage.

        I don’t buy it. I guess what I’m hammering at is intangible. The effect that going to a new team can produce. Seattle was awful for the past several years. Ichiro is a winner and future HOF’er. Add to that age, and you’ve got a player that perhaps just went a little tepid. Nothing to prove. Nothing to play for other than padding his stats.
        Going to a club that usually cares about winning did, and will continue, to energize him. I honestly think he will bat just over .300 with an OBP of around .340-.350. I think going to a much better team can do wonders for a player. I think a guy like Hanley Ramirez will have the same fate this season with a legit contender in LA.

        Rant over. I’m just bitter because I picked up Ichiro in my sim league hoping he would be a better option over my young Brett Jackson and Eric Young Jr.

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      • Vince says:

        Ichiro could project better if he wanted to.

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    • Klements Sausage says:

      Someone should call Casey McGehee and remind him he’s now playing in Japan, not the Bronx. He signed Dec 21 – how old are these projections?

      Anywho, it’s gonna be a fun year watching the Yankees and Red Sox battling for 4th this year…

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    • Matt Hunter says:

      As a Yankees fan, I would be ok with 1.1 WAR from Ichiro. Not ecstatic, of course, but I’m really not expecting much more than that.

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    • theblackbra says:

      Just to put it into perspective, according to ZIPS, a team would just as well off starting Vernon Wells in the outfield.

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      • LK says:

        I mean, Ichiro hasn’t been good the past 2 years and will be 39. What kind of projection were you expecting? I get that maybe there’s reasons to expect a bouceback from him, but none of that stuff is going to be factored in by a computer.

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      • theblackbra says:

        Just something a little closer to .300/.330 is all.

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      • BobbyS says:

        Which could very well happen, but no way that should be his mean projection. Nothing in his stats and age give good reason to expect .300/.330 as a baseline. That said, I hope does do well… He’s one I always like to see succeed.

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  6. Little CANOlli says:

    90 IP for Pettitte would be a disaster.

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  7. GilaMonster says:

    Only 1 guy with 100 RBIs is certainly a rarity on the Yankees. The projections are rather bearish on Pineda. Only 130 innings and under 8 k/9 ? Same for Nova, yet without as much talent

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    • Izzy Hechkoff says:

      Remember, ZIPS is only projecting one player’s mean projection to have 100 RBIs. It’s similar to how it only predicts a few players to hit .300. ZIPS probably sees more than 1 player to have 100 RBIs, but only 1 individual player to have at least a 50% chance of doing so.

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    • Ed says:

      That seems reasonable for Pineda. He’s really unlikely to pitch in the majors before June, so if anything, that’s an overestimate on the innings. As for the K/9, I’d expect some regression considering he’s recovering from surgery.

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  8. Preston says:

    The Yankees win year in and year out even without the benefit of a lot of good fortune. Michael Pineda missed the whole season, Nova was unproductive, Joba and Rivera had freak accidents, Gardner missed the season, Tex and CC had several injuries and yet they still won 95 games. They often buy enough depth to be good no matter what goes wrong. This team needs good fortune to be a 95 win team. Ichiro and one of the catchers will have to be something close to league average, something that isn’t all that likely. Jeter needs to continue to defy all laws of aging, Youk, Gardner and Tex need bounce backs and I think the hope is that Hafner can stay healthy long enough for A-Rod to fill in (and then A-Rod needs to be good, not a guarantee). I tend to think this pitching staff is better than the projections. I’d be surprised if Hirok, Nova, Hughes and Phelps had ERAs that high.

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  9. Paul says:

    I think this will be a weak year for the Yankees, but that Kuroda projection stands out as too pessimistic to me. He’s never posted an ERA- or FIP- near that bad, but ZiPS calls for him to suddenly fall apart.

    I suppose the aging factors in ZiPS are throwing up their red flags, but it just strikes me as off.

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  10. phoenix2042 says:

    I have a hard time believing that Gardner is only worth 2 wins. Barring the same elbow thing (and all reports say that’s behind him), he should get at least 500 plate appearances, if not more. With his defense and baserunning, as well as on base skills, that should be at least 3-4 WAR. Ichiro is a boss defensively, so I could see him getting to a 2 WAR season if he keeps any of the gains from his Yankees time last year. He won’t be that good, obviously, but he should be better than his Safeco numbers. Also, Pettitte projected for only 90IP would be very bad. I understand why it is so low, but I bet he could cross 150 without another freak injury (which the ankle thing was). Add that together and that’s only 4 wins than projected, which would amount to about a 93 win year, depending on where you put the replacement level. Hardly 4th place…

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    • Izzy Hechkoff says:

      If Gardner plays the whole season, he isn’t a 2 WAR player. After missing the whole year, it’s understandable that ZIPS would project him to play only half the season.

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  11. ranjan says:

    Can we see a projection for Ronnier Mustelier ?

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  12. Rinaldi says:

    I don’t know if this means anything or translates to wins in anyway, or is really even that good but I was playing with some numbers when they signed Youkilis and noticed that he saw 4.27 pitches per plate appearance since 2010, and the league average for players with 250+ PA is something like 3.84. I knew Gardner was good so I looked at the rest of the lineup according to MLB Depth Charts.

    Ichiro Suzuki: 3.58 P/PA
    Derek Jeter: 3.73
    Robinson Cano: 3.48
    Mark Teixeira: 4.04 (75th best in MLB)
    Curtis Granderson: 4.29 (7th best in MLB)
    Kevin Youkilis: 4.27 (9th best in MLB)
    Travis Hafner: 4.03 (81st best in MLB)
    Brett Gardner: 4.40 (2nd best in MLB)
    Chris Stewart: 3.57

    Like I said, I don’t know if it really means anything other than they will probably make pitchers work more and get to bullpens quicker but I think it’s a pretty resilient 4-8. I don’t know if the Yankees did it on purpose but it seems like they might have been targeting these types of guys since they signed Youk and were in on Reynolds who is surprisingly at 4.27, good for 10th in the MLB.

    Food for thought.

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    • Preston says:

      Getting on base also helps work pitchers deeper. This groups will get on base far less than last years group.

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    • MrMan says:

      Yeankees have consistently preached a patient approach at the plate and had hitters who used that. As someone else said, getting on base also makes pitchers work….but I agree…I think opponents will see higher-than-normal pitch counts by inning.

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  13. Dan Rozenson says:

    A .291 BABIP for Mariano Rivera? I find that unlikely. He’d have to have completely lost his ability to locate his pitches for that to happen. A small uptick due to lost velocity is possible, but not that much.

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  14. Boxkutter says:

    I don’t pay a lot of attention to the Yankees, but has there been any talk of moving Granderson to LF so Gardner can start in CF? It needs to happen.

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    • Steve says:

      Yes, there has been talk this winter, in the sense of “sources say the team will consider switching Gardner and Granderson”. I’d put it at 50% chance of happening.

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  15. Saberphreak says:

    2014 will be the year that really hurts but they will re-tool for 2015 and should look good from there on out. The Grandyman will likely go after 2013 but Cano will likely be re-signed if Boras doesn’t lose his mind. Hughes is boarderline and a lot rides on his walk year. After the luxury tax rate re-sets for them (and they get part of the revenue sharing rebate for 2014), I could see them signing one of Verlander, King Felix or Kershaw (or Price the following year) to hopefully go along with one of those infamous A-ball OF bats, Pineda, Gary Sanchez (and maybe Banuelos). By then, if he’s still playing, Jeter will be off short (DH or 3B maybe) so they will need a SS (Nunez perhaps if he stops making errors) too. Basically, time for the minor league guys to develop and a bit to get over the 2014 CBA hump.

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    • MrMan says:

      I think the Yankees already have their eye on Scott Boras represented Elvis Andrus to replace Derek Jeter in 2015. Elvis is unlikely to sign an extension with the Rangers or anyone else before then, the Yanks will be free of their salary cap restraints, Elvis will be only 26 and Jeter will be 40 at the start of the season.

      Long-term projections for free agent signings are notoriously unreliable, but if ever there was one I could see happening, this is it.

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  16. Saberphreak says:

    Gardner will take over CF in 2014.

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  17. HawkeyeCub says:

    For all those complaining about the projections being light–this is a generally old team, and a computer projection system is not going to trust old players. You can’t argue with the Yankees’ recent success, but the fact of the matter is the Yankees are going to have to keep a lot of mid to late 30s players on the field and productive to contend this year. That is no easy matter. It has been years since the Yankees graduated a productive position player or starting pitcher from their farm system. That trend will catch up with them eventually if it doesn’t change.

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    • Jay29 says:

      I just don’t like how some projection systems seem to blindly look back at last year’s playing time and just assume the player will miss a lot of time this year (obviously Rivera’s age factors in some, too).

      I’d like to see some kind of breakdown of injury vs future setbacks — I imagine you’d get a big correlation for things like shoulder injuries and concussions, but little correlation for things like lacerations and broken bones — and have injury type factored into the player’s projection.

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  18. Rinaldi says:

    I really hope Gary Sanchez gets the majority of the C PA.

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  19. K says:

    Phelps will do better than a 4.64 ERA….

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