- FanGraphs Baseball - http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs -

2013 ZiPS Projections – New York Yankees

Posted By Carson Cistulli On February 4, 2013 @ 8:00 am In 2013 ZiPS Projections,Featured,Yankees | 48 Comments

Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, are being released at FanGraphs this year. Below are the projections for the New York Yankees. Szymborski can be found on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other 2013 Projections: Angels / Astros / Athletics / Blue Jays / Brewers / Cardinals / Cubs / Diamondbacks / Dodgers / Giants / Mariners / Marlins / Mets / Nationals / Phillies / Pirates / Rangers / Rays / Reds / Rockies / Royals / Tigers / White Sox.

Batters
It’s probably not entirely correct to say that Robinson Cano is twice as good as any of his field-playing teammates. What does appear to be the case, however, is that — owing to a combination of offensive production, positional adjustment, and durability — Robinson Cano is likely to be twice as valuable in 2013 as any of those same teammates.

Elsewhere, there are a lot of rather low plate-appearance projections among the Yankees batting corps. Brett Gardner, Travis Hafner, Alex Rodriguez, and Kevin Youkilis: none is forecast to make even as many as 500 plate appearances. Of course, A-Rod’s mean projection by that account is already appearing to be rather an optimistic one: according to general manager Brian Cashman, the nominal starting third baseman is expected back from hip surgery in July, but could potentially miss the entire season.

Pitchers
Little has changed, so far as personnel is concerned, among the Yankees rotation. Hiroki Kuroda, Phil Hughes, CC Sabathia, Ivan Nova, and Andy Pettitte made the first-, second-, third-, fourth-, and sixth-most starts, respectively, for New York last season. As a group, they posted a 13.9 WAR over 856.2 innings. As a group, ZiPS projects them for a 12.6 WAR over 801.2 innings — not much different, really.

The bullpen appears to be a source of some strength for the Yankees — both so far as top-end talent and depth is concerned. The effects of Mariano Rivera‘s return are perhaps understated here: despite Rivera’s perpetual excellence, Dan Szymborski’s math computer also probably has doubts about a 43-year-old pitcher who missed almost all of the previous season. Apart from Rivera, the Yankees actually have a real-live relief ace in David Robertson: the right-hander was fifth last season among relievers by xFIP-. Young-ish right-hander Cody Eppley and even younger right-hander Mark Montgomery are both projected to post park-adjusted ERAs better than league average.

Bench/Prospects
In outfielders Tyler Austin and Mason Williams the Yankees have two players who are both entering just their age-21 seasons, but yet are projected to produce the major-league equivalent of something like a win above replacement. Second baseman Corban Joseph is older, but his floor is quite high, and he was among the league leaders by regressed hitting at both Double- and Triple-A last season as a 23-year-old.

Depth Chart
Here’s a rough depth chart for the Yankees, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player (click to embiggen):

Yankees Depth

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Credit to MLB Depth Charts for roster information.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Robinson Cano L 30 2B 672 94 184 42 3 29 100 5 3
Curtis Granderson L 32 CF 626 94 133 20 6 33 93 13 5
Mark Teixeira B 33 1B 574 73 126 27 1 26 90 2 1
Kevin Youkilis R 34 3B 475 63 103 20 2 20 63 2 1
Brett Gardner L 29 LF 342 50 76 11 5 3 24 28 7
Alex Rodriguez R 37 3B 451 59 100 16 1 15 54 8 1
Derek Jeter R 39 SS 555 69 139 20 4 6 53 13 6
Tyler Austin R 21 RF 505 64 115 27 5 19 66 15 5
Casey McGehee R 30 3B 500 50 115 22 1 15 71 1 2
Mason Williams L 21 CF 535 59 136 21 5 13 52 27 19
Ichiro Suzuki L 39 RF 628 84 168 26 5 10 61 29 7
Travis Hafner L 36 DH 322 34 72 13 1 13 47 0 0
Corban Joseph L 24 2B 579 64 125 30 5 12 59 2 4
Dan Johnson L 33 1B 530 59 107 17 1 20 65 1 0
Gary Sanchez R 20 C 466 49 100 20 1 19 62 8 4
Eduardo Nunez R 26 SS 430 46 106 17 2 6 38 21 6
Andruw Jones R 36 LF 254 28 51 9 0 13 37 2 0
Austin Romine R 24 C 345 37 78 15 0 8 38 1 1
Chris Dickerson L 31 CF 294 35 60 13 2 5 23 14 3
Francisco Cervelli R 27 C 332 29 68 11 2 3 31 3 1
Chris Stewart R 31 C 244 24 52 11 0 3 21 2 0
J.R. Murphy R 22 C 466 44 102 25 2 10 47 2 3
David Adams R 26 2B 354 35 81 20 1 6 38 3 3
Thomas Neal R 25 RF 518 63 118 23 2 10 54 7 6
Juan Rivera R 34 LF 417 44 99 17 0 13 66 2 2
Bobby Wilson R 30 C 191 19 41 8 0 4 19 0 1
Jayson Nix R 30 2B 318 32 65 15 1 10 33 6 2
Slade Heathcott L 22 CF 340 38 71 15 2 8 27 14 9
Melky Mesa R 26 CF 539 60 104 22 3 19 61 16 7
Gil Velazquez R 33 SS 448 43 102 14 2 4 32 6 5
Zoilo Almonte B 24 RF 533 52 116 23 3 19 68 12 6
Matt Diaz R 35 LF 207 22 47 10 1 4 24 3 1
Ramon Flores L 21 LF 628 61 137 26 4 13 57 14 7
Colin Curtis L 28 RF 335 29 66 16 1 4 25 6 2
Doug Bernier R 33 SS 259 23 45 9 1 0 14 2 1

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP BA OBP SLG wOBA
Robinson Cano 672 7.3% 12.8% .221 .310 .301 .359 .522 .368
Curtis Granderson 626 10.5% 25.7% .239 .279 .243 .329 .483 .346
Mark Teixeira 574 11.3% 17.1% .217 .266 .256 .348 .474 .352
Kevin Youkilis 475 11.4% 21.1% .208 .289 .256 .360 .464 .355
Brett Gardner 342 11.7% 17.0% .102 .313 .259 .355 .362 .327
Alex Rodriguez 451 9.8% 22.0% .159 .297 .253 .335 .412 .328
Derek Jeter 555 7.2% 13.5% .092 .313 .277 .334 .369 .309
Tyler Austin 505 7.7% 27.5% .204 .315 .249 .311 .453 .329
Casey McGehee 500 7.6% 18.0% .152 .282 .253 .310 .404 .308
Mason Williams 535 4.3% 17.9% .140 .312 .272 .306 .412 .303
Ichiro Suzuki 628 3.8% 9.1% .111 .296 .282 .309 .393 .301
Travis Hafner 322 10.2% 20.2% .194 .291 .258 .351 .452 .342
Corban Joseph 579 9.2% 20.0% .147 .288 .242 .313 .389 .302
Dan Johnson 530 12.3% 18.9% .174 .255 .235 .332 .409 .320
Gary Sanchez 466 5.8% 30.7% .182 .295 .230 .277 .411 .298
Eduardo Nunez 430 4.9% 13.3% .098 .293 .265 .302 .363 .292
Andruw Jones 254 11.0% 26.0% .217 .264 .231 .323 .448 .334
Austin Romine 345 6.4% 19.7% .122 .286 .245 .296 .367 .289
Chris Dickerson 294 10.2% 27.6% .124 .314 .233 .312 .357 .300
Francisco Cervelli 332 7.5% 20.8% .082 .291 .234 .308 .316 .276
Chris Stewart 244 7.0% 13.9% .092 .268 .239 .303 .330 .278
J.R. Murphy 466 5.8% 18.5% .136 .270 .236 .280 .372 .282
David Adams 354 6.5% 20.1% .125 .304 .253 .312 .378 .301
Thomas Neal 518 6.4% 21.6% .121 .308 .251 .313 .372 .299
Juan Rivera 417 6.5% 12.7% .147 .268 .260 .309 .407 .307
Bobby Wilson 191 6.8% 16.2% .119 .276 .244 .301 .363 .279
Jayson Nix 318 6.3% 25.5% .164 .279 .227 .288 .392 .291
Slade Heathcott 340 6.2% 30.9% .138 .317 .228 .287 .367 .284
Melky Mesa 539 5.9% 33.8% .171 .284 .209 .265 .380 .281
Gil Velazquez 448 6.5% 15.2% .074 .290 .250 .303 .324 .273
Zoilo Almonte 533 5.8% 28.3% .173 .294 .233 .280 .406 .295
Matt Diaz 207 5.8% 20.8% .126 .299 .247 .301 .374 .293
Ramon Flores 628 7.2% 20.9% .127 .285 .238 .295 .365 .289
Colin Curtis 335 7.2% 21.5% .098 .268 .216 .278 .315 .261
Doug Bernier 259 8.5% 27.4% .048 .280 .195 .267 .242 .231

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def WAR No.1 Comp
Robinson Cano 672 7.2 133 3 6.0 Charlie Gehringer
Curtis Granderson 626 5.7 115 -5 3.0 Rick Monday
Mark Teixeira 574 6.0 118 5 2.9 Paul Konerko
Kevin Youkilis 475 6.1 120 -3 2.7 Sal Bando
Brett Gardner 342 5.2 94 10 2.0 Gene Richards
Alex Rodriguez 451 5.1 100 -1 1.9 Bob Elliott
Derek Jeter 555 4.6 89 -3 1.7 Luke Appling
Tyler Austin 505 5.2 102 1 1.6 Candy Maldonado
Casey McGehee 500 4.5 90 0 1.3 Jason Wood
Mason Williams 535 4.4 91 2 1.2 Rick Manning
Ichiro Suzuki 628 4.8 87 2 1.1 Sam Rice
Travis Hafner 322 5.8 114 0 1.1 Matt Stairs
Corban Joseph 579 4.2 87 -3 1.0 Boi Rodriguez
Dan Johnson 530 4.8 98 0 0.9 Kevin Barker
Gary Sanchez 466 4.0 82 -5 0.9 Josh Phelps
Eduardo Nunez 430 4.3 78 -4 0.8 Pedro Chavez
Andruw Jones 254 5.2 105 -1 0.7 Jeff Manto
Austin Romine 345 3.8 77 -2 0.7 Jason Hill
Chris Dickerson 294 4.2 79 0 0.6 Pat Sheridan
Francisco Cervelli 332 3.5 69 -1 0.5 Jeff Tackett
Chris Stewart 244 3.6 70 0 0.5 Dave Toth
J.R. Murphy 466 3.6 73 -4 0.5 Ryan Christianson
David Adams 354 4.2 85 -2 0.5 Leo Cardenas
Thomas Neal 518 4.1 83 4 0.4 Ruben Mateo
Juan Rivera 417 4.5 91 0 0.4 Mark Smith
Bobby Wilson 191 3.8 78 0 0.4 Dave Toth
Jayson Nix 318 4.0 80 -3 0.3 Caonabo Cosme
Slade Heathcott 340 3.5 74 2 0.3 Mel Hall
Melky Mesa 539 3.5 71 1 0.2 Chad Hermansen
Gil Velazquez 448 3.4 69 -4 0.0 Jorge Velandia
Zoilo Almonte 533 4.0 82 -1 -0.1 Kevin Roberson
Matt Diaz 207 4.1 80 -1 -0.1 Pedro Swann
Ramon Flores 628 3.8 76 -3 -0.5 Theron Todd
Colin Curtis 335 3.1 59 1 -0.6 Scott Seal
Doug Bernier 259 2.2 39 -5 -0.9 Ray Oyler

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player T Age G GS IP SO BB HR H R ER
CC Sabathia L 32 29 29 202.3 184 52 20 193 87 81
Hiroki Kuroda R 38 29 29 186.0 136 45 26 192 94 88
Michael Pineda R 24 20 20 120.0 102 43 16 117 63 59
Andy Pettitte L 41 16 16 90.3 73 27 10 90 44 41
Phil Hughes R 27 28 27 156.0 129 45 26 161 88 82
David Robertson R 28 67 0 63.0 84 26 6 50 22 21
Ivan Nova R 26 28 28 167.0 125 57 23 181 96 90
David Phelps R 26 29 19 118.3 93 41 16 124 65 61
Freddy Garcia R 36 24 18 109.7 73 34 16 120 64 60
Mark Montgomery R 22 50 0 57.7 67 31 7 51 28 26
Boone Logan L 28 70 0 52.0 58 22 6 47 25 23
Cody Eppley R 27 65 0 57.0 46 22 5 57 28 26
Mariano Rivera R 43 26 0 23.0 22 5 2 21 9 8
Clay Rapada L 32 60 0 39.3 36 17 4 37 19 18
Joba Chamberlain R 27 40 0 40.3 41 12 6 39 20 19
Derek Lowe R 40 29 20 123.7 63 48 13 149 80 75
Jim Miller R 31 50 0 64.7 54 27 10 67 37 35
Ryota Igarashi R 34 52 0 53.7 49 30 6 55 31 29
David Aardsma R 31 16 0 14.7 14 7 2 14 9 8
David Herndon R 27 31 0 39.0 26 13 6 44 24 22
Cesar Cabral L 24 27 0 42.0 31 22 5 47 27 25
Pat Venditte B 28 29 0 45.7 33 22 7 51 30 28
Manny Banuelos L 22 15 15 66.7 48 42 11 75 48 45
Jason Bulger R 34 29 0 31.7 27 25 6 34 24 22
Adam Warren R 25 25 25 131.0 72 60 20 158 92 86
Brett Marshall R 23 26 25 132.7 82 58 25 155 95 89
Francisco Rondon L 25 37 0 56.0 50 42 10 59 41 38
Shaeffer Hall L 25 25 24 138.7 67 43 26 174 100 93
Nik Turley L 23 21 20 95.7 67 53 20 111 73 68
Chase Whitley R 24 43 2 76.7 49 39 16 90 59 55
Jose Ramirez R 23 21 19 92.7 61 52 21 112 76 71
Dellin Betances R 25 24 24 106.7 86 89 20 117 86 80

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
CC Sabathia 202.3 852 21.6% 6.1% .294 3.60 3.48 86 83
Hiroki Kuroda 186.0 795 17.1% 5.7% .284 4.26 4.33 101 103
Michael Pineda 120.0 520 19.7% 8.3% .286 4.43 4.29 105 102
Andy Pettitte 90.3 388 18.7% 7.0% .288 4.08 3.96 97 94
Phil Hughes 156.0 674 19.2% 6.7% .288 4.73 4.56 112 108
David Robertson 63.0 266 31.5% 9.9% .299 3.00 2.84 71 67
Ivan Nova 167.0 739 16.9% 7.7% .301 4.85 4.56 115 108
David Phelps 118.3 520 17.9% 7.8% .297 4.64 4.48 110 106
Freddy Garcia 109.7 483 15.1% 7.1% .290 4.92 4.67 117 111
Mark Montgomery 57.7 254 26.4% 12.0% .299 4.06 4.01 96 95
Boone Logan 52.0 225 25.6% 9.7% .302 3.98 3.63 94 86
Cody Eppley 57.0 250 18.5% 8.8% .294 4.11 3.88 97 92
Mariano Rivera 23.0 95 23.3% 5.0% .291 3.13 2.93 74 70
Clay Rapada 39.3 172 21.1% 9.9% .288 4.12 3.98 98 95
Joba Chamberlain 40.3 172 23.9% 6.9% .300 4.24 3.91 101 93
Derek Lowe 123.7 568 11.0% 8.4% .308 5.46 4.68 130 111
Jim Miller 64.7 288 18.7% 9.2% .298 4.87 4.76 116 113
Ryota Igarashi 53.7 246 19.8% 12.3% .311 4.86 4.65 115 110
David Aardsma 14.7 65 21.6% 11.2% .284 4.91 4.50 117 107
David Herndon 39.0 174 14.8% 7.4% .300 5.08 4.61 121 109
Cesar Cabral 42.0 195 15.8% 11.1% .311 5.36 4.97 127 118
Pat Venditte 45.7 210 15.7% 10.6% .302 5.52 5.27 131 125
Manny Banuelos 66.7 317 15.2% 13.2% .304 6.08 5.89 144 140
Jason Bulger 31.7 154 17.8% 16.3% .299 6.25 6.37 148 151
Adam Warren 131.0 610 11.8% 9.8% .306 5.91 5.60 140 133
Brett Marshall 132.7 611 13.5% 9.5% .296 6.04 5.84 143 139
Francisco Rondon 56.0 269 18.5% 15.7% .298 6.11 6.02 145 143
Shaeffer Hall 138.7 633 10.5% 6.8% .303 6.04 5.69 143 135
Nik Turley 95.7 451 14.8% 11.7% .299 6.40 6.29 152 149
Chase Whitley 76.7 360 13.6% 10.9% .298 6.46 6.23 153 148
Jose Ramirez 92.7 442 13.8% 11.8% .301 6.90 6.69 164 159
Dellin Betances 106.7 526 16.4% 17.0% .300 6.75 6.74 160 160

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ WAR No. 1 Comp
CC Sabathia 202.3 8.20 2.30 0.91 118 4.9 Bruce Hurst
Hiroki Kuroda 186.0 6.56 2.20 1.28 100 3.0 Mark Gardner
Michael Pineda 120.0 7.69 3.24 1.16 96 1.7 Jaret Wright
Andy Pettitte 90.3 7.23 2.73 1.03 104 1.6 Chuck Finley
Phil Hughes 156.0 7.45 2.59 1.47 90 1.6 Adam Eaton
David Robertson 63.0 11.95 3.77 0.81 142 1.5 Bryan Harvey
Ivan Nova 167.0 6.72 3.07 1.24 88 1.5 Chris Carpenter
David Phelps 118.3 7.07 3.09 1.21 92 1.3 Julio Valera
Freddy Garcia 109.7 6.00 2.80 1.32 86 0.8 Bob Walk
Mark Montgomery 57.7 10.46 4.78 1.06 105 0.6 Ryan Bukvich
Boone Logan 52.0 9.98 3.80 1.06 107 0.6 B.J. Ryan
Cody Eppley 57.0 7.32 3.48 0.86 104 0.6 Mark Lee
Mariano Rivera 23.0 8.64 1.85 0.83 136 0.5 Larry Andersen
Clay Rapada 39.3 8.30 3.90 0.94 103 0.4 Marshall Bridges
Joba Chamberlain 40.3 9.15 2.63 1.27 100 0.3 Mike Connolly
Derek Lowe 123.7 4.55 3.47 0.95 78 0.1 Burleigh Grimes
Jim Miller 64.7 7.51 3.71 1.34 87 0.0 Kevin Campbell
Ryota Igarashi 53.7 8.19 5.07 1.00 87 0.0 Heathcliff Slocumb
David Aardsma 14.7 8.66 4.48 1.37 87 0.0 Rich Croushore
David Herndon 39.0 5.95 3.00 1.33 84 -0.1 John Costello
Cesar Cabral 42.0 6.60 4.62 1.15 79 -0.2 Sal Urso
Pat Venditte 45.7 6.48 4.37 1.36 77 -0.3 Ken Vining
Manny Banuelos 66.7 6.50 5.67 1.45 70 -0.4 Norm Charlton
Jason Bulger 31.7 7.78 7.13 1.71 68 -0.5 Archie Corbin
Adam Warren 131.0 4.96 4.09 1.39 72 -0.6 Chris Buglovsky
Brett Marshall 132.7 5.58 3.92 1.71 70 -0.8 Frank Potestio
Francisco Rondon 56.0 8.00 6.81 1.56 70 -0.8 Peter Bauer
Shaeffer Hall 138.7 4.33 2.77 1.67 70 -0.8 Heath Phillips
Nik Turley 95.7 6.26 4.94 1.86 66 -1.0 Steve Bourgeois
Chase Whitley 76.7 5.75 4.59 1.84 66 -1.3 Jeff Robinson
Jose Ramirez 92.7 5.94 5.05 2.08 62 -1.5 Jonah Bayliss
Dellin Betances 106.7 7.28 7.54 1.70 63 -1.5 Miguel Jimenez

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.09 ERA and the NL having a 3.92 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected WAR.


Article printed from FanGraphs Baseball: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs

URL to article: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2013-zips-projections-new-york-yankees/

Copyright © 2009 FanGraphs Baseball. All rights reserved.