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2013 ZiPS Projections – Philadelphia Phillies

Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, will be released at FanGraphs this year. Below are the projections for the Philadelphia Phillies. Szymborski can be found on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other 2013 Projections: Athletics / Giants / Nationals / Rangers.

Batters
Relative to the teams we’ve seen projected so far, Philadelphia appears to have more key players with relatively low playing-time projections. Chase Utley (450 PAs) and Ryan Howard (474 PAs), for example, will each make more than $15 million in 2013, and yet are forecast to make fewer than 500 plate appearances.

Also of note is how Carlos Ruiz, who led all Phillies in 2012 with a 5.5 WAR, will miss the season’s first 25 games (not accounted for in the projection below) due to a second positive amphetamine test. That will likely give Erik Kratz the starting job for April — although, after a 112 wRC+ and 1.4 WAR in just 157 plate appearances last season, Kratz projects to be more than mere replacement-level fodder.

Pitchers
It isn’t groundbreaking, but it is something like a fact, to say that Philadelphia’s top three starters are among the best in the league. Even with Roy Halladay‘s struggles in 2012, the triumvirate still accounted for 12 wins between them — and ZiPS projects them more or less to repeat that performance in 2013. Where Vance Worley (133.1 IP, 1.9 WAR) and Joe Blanton (133.1 IP, 1.7 WAR) threw a lot of league-average innings behind them in 2012, however, neither of the Big Three’s likely rotation mates in 2013, Kyle Kendrick and John Lannan, is expected to pitch quite so well.

In the bullpen, the addition of Mike Adams — provided he recovers well from surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome in October — should be a positive one for the Phils, who now, with also Jonathan Papelbon and Antonio Bastardo, have three pitchers ideally suited for high-leverage situations.

Bench/Prospects
Now about 500 plate appearances into his major-league career, former top prospect Domonic Brown has been worth about a win below replacement. ZiPS isn’t particularly concerned, turns out, projecting Brown both to hit and field like an average major-league corner outfielder. Middle infielder Freddy Galvis is an asset because of his defense. After winning the Eastern League’s MVP award last season, corner-type Darin Ruf is poised to play at the major-league level this year. He’d probably make a pretty great platoon partner with Ryan Howard. That sort of thing is unlikely to happen, though.

Depth Chart
Here’s a rough depth chart for the Phillies, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player (click to embiggen):

Phils Depth

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Credit to MLB Depth Charts for roster information.

Batters, Counting Stats


Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Chase Utley L 34 2B 450 59 99 18 3 14 57 12 1
Carlos Ruiz R 34 C 421 46 105 25 0 10 52 2 0
Jimmy Rollins B 34 SS 586 82 138 27 4 17 64 22 6
Ben Revere L 25 CF 639 75 169 15 8 1 40 42 12
Domonic Brown L 25 LF 497 59 118 25 4 18 60 12 7
Michael Young R 36 3B 617 67 160 29 4 11 67 4 2
Freddy Galvis B 23 2B 417 42 102 22 3 6 43 9 7
Erik Kratz R 33 C 339 36 74 19 0 12 45 1 0
Ryan Howard L 33 1B 474 57 101 19 2 23 89 1 0
Darin Ruf R 26 1B 582 62 133 31 2 17 73 1 1
Kevin Frandsen R 31 2B 516 53 131 27 2 4 43 4 4
Josh Fields R 30 3B 375 47 85 17 3 8 41 5 2
Jermaine Mitchell L 28 CF 544 63 110 19 9 7 42 14 10
Sebastian Valle R 22 C 445 39 105 17 2 11 47 0 2
Tyson Gillies L 24 CF 233 27 54 8 5 2 12 5 4
Ender Inciarte L 22 CF 597 61 137 23 7 2 36 30 16
Laynce Nix L 32 1B 226 24 48 13 1 7 28 0 1
John Mayberry R 29 LF 478 57 109 24 1 15 55 7 2
Jake Fox R 30 LF 304 33 66 17 1 10 41 0 0
Andres Blanco B 29 SS 308 30 68 12 1 5 23 3 3
Cesar Hernandez B 23 2B 588 54 149 21 10 2 50 20 14
Pete Orr L 34 3B 435 43 94 17 4 6 35 14 5
Brian Schneider L 36 C 138 13 28 6 0 2 12 0 0
Humberto Quintero R 33 C 258 21 57 14 0 3 25 0 0
Tug Hulett L 30 3B 389 39 82 18 3 5 36 5 3
Michael Martinez B 30 SS 327 34 71 11 3 5 32 6 4
Zach Collier L 22 CF 457 45 96 18 4 4 35 18 10
Jiwan James B 24 CF 565 59 123 20 6 4 40 16 14
Ty Wigginton R 35 1B 418 43 90 16 1 13 49 2 1
Kyle Hudson L 26 CF 554 59 126 10 3 0 25 27 13
Mike Spidale R 31 LF 432 40 113 12 2 2 28 13 8

***

Batters, Rates and Averages


Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP BA OBP SLG wOBA
Chase Utley 450 10.4% 13.6% .173 .272 .258 .358 .431 .344
Carlos Ruiz 421 9.0% 11.9% .149 .305 .285 .367 .434 .340
Jimmy Rollins 586 8.5% 11.6% .162 .269 .260 .323 .422 .324
Ben Revere 639 5.2% 9.4% .057 .314 .285 .326 .342 .300
Domonic Brown 497 8.9% 20.9% .196 .305 .265 .332 .461 .337
Michael Young 617 5.8% 13.1% .122 .305 .279 .319 .401 .309
Freddy Galvis 417 4.1% 15.1% .118 .298 .261 .297 .379 .289
Erik Kratz 339 7.1% 20.4% .180 .272 .243 .307 .423 .312
Ryan Howard 474 10.1% 28.7% .221 .298 .242 .325 .463 .327
Darin Ruf 582 7.6% 24.7% .165 .316 .255 .321 .420 .321
Kevin Frandsen 516 3.1% 8.7% .090 .293 .273 .311 .363 .290
Josh Fields 375 7.7% 25.1% .138 .320 .250 .310 .388 .302
Jermaine Mitchell 544 9.2% 26.7% .120 .307 .226 .301 .346 .283
Sebastian Valle 445 2.9% 30.8% .127 .332 .246 .266 .373 .272
Tyson Gillies 233 4.3% 23.6% .112 .331 .254 .304 .366 .289
Ender Inciarte 597 6.7% 14.4% .079 .295 .252 .303 .331 .275
Laynce Nix 226 8.0% 27.0% .175 .293 .233 .292 .408 .296
John Mayberry 478 6.9% 22.4% .162 .294 .248 .303 .410 .309
Jake Fox 304 5.6% 20.1% .177 .268 .238 .296 .415 .307
Andres Blanco 308 5.8% 16.6% .103 .275 .240 .289 .343 .270
Cesar Hernandez 588 4.3% 18.0% .085 .330 .270 .301 .355 .280
Pete Orr 435 4.4% 20.0% .106 .281 .232 .276 .338 .269
Brian Schneider 138 7.2% 20.3% .097 .274 .226 .292 .323 .268
Humberto Quintero 258 2.7% 21.7% .093 .287 .232 .261 .325 .254
Tug Hulett 389 8.5% 21.1% .112 .289 .234 .300 .346 .282
Michael Martinez 327 4.9% 16.5% .106 .268 .234 .276 .340 .262
Zach Collier 457 6.3% 23.9% .091 .299 .230 .286 .321 .266
Jiwan James 565 4.8% 30.3% .083 .335 .234 .276 .317 .257
Ty Wigginton 418 8.1% 19.9% .152 .271 .239 .306 .391 .303
Kyle Hudson 554 7.4% 22.0% .032 .331 .251 .310 .283 .266
Mike Spidale 432 3.2% 13.0% .054 .315 .276 .308 .330 .278

***

Batters, Assorted Other


Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def WAR No.1 Comp
Chase Utley 450 5.9 112 5 3.4 Dick McAuliffe
Carlos Ruiz 421 6.1 116 1 3.3 Spud Davis
Jimmy Rollins 586 5.2 100 0 3.3 Billy Rogell
Ben Revere 639 4.6 82 7 2.2 Juan Pierre
Domonic Brown 497 5.6 112 0 1.9 Glenn Braggs
Michael Young 617 4.8 94 -8 1.4 Joe Randa
Freddy Galvis 417 4.0 81 7 1.3 Mark Lewis
Erik Kratz 339 4.7 95 -3 1.3 Keith McDonald
Ryan Howard 474 5.4 110 -5 1.1 George Foster
Darin Ruf 582 4.9 99 -2 1.0 Joe Vitiello
Kevin Frandsen 516 4.1 82 0 0.9 Manny Trillo
Josh Fields 375 4.4 88 -4 0.7 Bobby Knoop
Jermaine Mitchell 544 3.5 75 3 0.6 Herm Winningham
Sebastian Valle 445 3.5 71 -1 0.6 Tony Pena
Tyson Gillies 233 3.9 81 3 0.6 Gary Thomasson
Ender Inciarte 597 3.6 72 3 0.5 Lance Johnson
Laynce Nix 226 4.1 87 5 0.5 Dale Sveum
John Mayberry 478 4.5 91 -3 0.5 Matthew Cepicky
Jake Fox 304 4.4 90 -1 0.3 Chris Widger
Andres Blanco 308 3.4 70 -1 0.3 Kevin Baez
Cesar Hernandez 588 3.8 77 -3 0.2 Manuel Lee
Pete Orr 435 3.4 65 0 0.2 Dan Rohn
Brian Schneider 138 3.3 66 -1 0.1 Tony Pena
Humberto Quintero 258 3.0 57 0 0.1 Charlie Greene
Tug Hulett 389 3.6 74 -4 0.1 Rodney Nye
Michael Martinez 327 3.2 66 -3 -0.1 Pablo Martinez
Zach Collier 457 3.2 64 0 -0.2 Mel Hall
Jiwan James 565 2.8 60 5 -0.2 Randy Winn
Ty Wigginton 418 4.3 87 -5 -0.3 Carl Everett
Kyle Hudson 554 3.2 62 0 -0.3 Milt Thompson
Mike Spidale 432 3.7 73 0 -0.4 Gene Clines

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats


Player T Age G GS IP SO BB HR H R ER
Cliff Lee L 34 28 28 200.0 198 29 20 184 73 68
Cole Hamels L 29 31 30 204.0 201 49 23 180 79 74
Roy Halladay R 36 26 26 179.0 154 32 16 172 73 68
Kyle Kendrick R 28 33 22 140.0 88 40 18 144 72 67
Jonathan Papelbon R 32 63 0 63.7 83 18 6 50 21 20
John Lannan L 28 30 30 167.0 101 72 16 184 90 84
Mike Adams R 34 62 0 56.0 55 17 5 49 20 19
Julio Rodriguez R 22 28 23 133.0 126 75 15 125 72 67
Antonio Bastardo L 27 61 0 50.3 69 23 5 38 19 18
Jonathan Pettibone R 22 26 26 144.3 91 52 16 161 82 77
Raul Valdes L 35 39 4 61.7 59 15 8 61 30 28
Justin De Fratus R 25 47 0 55.0 51 20 6 52 26 24
Tyler Cloyd R 26 30 27 154.3 102 48 22 169 90 84
Michael Schwimer R 27 53 0 62.3 62 27 7 59 30 28
Jose Contreras R 41 18 0 15.3 14 5 2 15 7 7
Jeremy Horst L 27 52 0 65.3 54 29 6 68 34 32
Michael Stutes R 26 36 0 42.3 40 24 5 39 22 21
Justin Friend R 27 50 0 53.7 44 27 5 57 30 28
Phillippe Aumont R 24 55 0 56.0 58 41 6 52 32 30
Jake Diekman L 26 54 0 55.0 56 45 5 51 32 30
Cesar Jimenez L 28 29 0 44.3 34 23 4 50 27 25
Joe Savery L 27 42 0 50.3 33 19 6 56 30 28
B.J. Rosenberg R 27 38 7 73.7 61 33 11 81 47 44
Pat Misch L 31 23 21 115.7 62 35 17 139 75 70
Brandon Erbe R 25 15 5 32.3 21 21 5 39 25 23
Zach Miner R 31 25 6 46.3 26 30 7 53 33 31
J.C. Ramirez R 24 46 0 62.0 41 37 8 68 41 38
Ethan Martin R 24 29 20 111.3 91 88 22 123 89 83

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages


Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Cliff Lee 200.0 813 24.4% 3.6% .291 3.06 2.88 78 73
Cole Hamels 204.0 841 23.9% 5.8% .279 3.26 3.34 83 85
Roy Halladay 179.0 741 20.8% 4.3% .292 3.42 3.12 87 80
Kyle Kendrick 140.0 604 14.6% 6.6% .279 4.31 4.41 110 112
Jonathan Papelbon 63.7 259 32.0% 6.9% .295 2.83 2.61 72 67
John Lannan 167.0 757 13.3% 9.5% .299 4.53 4.48 116 114
Mike Adams 56.0 234 23.5% 7.3% .282 3.05 3.20 78 82
Julio Rodriguez 133.0 599 21.0% 12.5% .293 4.53 4.52 116 115
Antonio Bastardo 50.3 212 32.6% 10.9% .292 3.22 3.08 82 78
Jonathan Pettibone 144.3 646 14.1% 8.1% .303 4.80 4.52 122 115
Raul Valdes 61.7 261 22.6% 5.7% .301 4.09 3.69 104 94
Justin De Fratus 55.0 237 21.5% 8.4% .293 3.93 3.80 100 97
Tyler Cloyd 154.3 680 15.0% 7.1% .295 4.90 4.72 125 120
Michael Schwimer 62.3 273 22.7% 9.9% .299 4.04 3.91 103 100
Jose Contreras 15.3 66 21.2% 7.6% .296 4.11 4.14 105 106
Jeremy Horst 65.3 293 18.4% 9.9% .309 4.41 4.06 113 104
Michael Stutes 42.3 190 21.1% 12.6% .286 4.46 4.51 114 115
Justin Friend 53.7 245 18.0% 11.0% .315 4.70 4.34 120 111
Phillippe Aumont 56.0 261 22.2% 15.7% .303 4.82 4.72 123 120
Jake Diekman 55.0 261 21.5% 17.2% .307 4.91 4.80 125 123
Cesar Jimenez 44.3 206 16.5% 11.2% .324 5.08 4.36 130 111
Joe Savery 50.3 226 14.6% 8.4% .303 5.01 4.59 128 117
B.J. Rosenberg 73.7 335 18.2% 9.8% .311 5.38 4.93 137 126
Pat Misch 115.7 521 11.9% 6.7% .305 5.45 4.97 139 127
Brandon Erbe 32.3 157 13.4% 13.4% .315 6.40 5.94 163 152
Zach Miner 46.3 222 11.7% 13.5% .295 6.02 5.95 154 152
J.C. Ramirez 62.0 291 14.1% 12.7% .299 5.52 5.39 141 137
Ethan Martin 111.3 545 16.7% 16.1% .301 6.71 6.59 171 168

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other


Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ WAR No. 1 Comp
Cliff Lee 200.0 8.91 1.31 0.90 127 4.9 Jeff Fassero
Cole Hamels 204.0 8.87 2.16 1.01 119 4.4 Teddy Higuera
Roy Halladay 179.0 7.74 1.61 0.80 113 3.6 Mike Mussina
Kyle Kendrick 140.0 5.66 2.57 1.16 90 1.2 Jeff Heathcock
Jonathan Papelbon 63.7 11.73 2.54 0.85 137 1.2 Robb Nen
John Lannan 167.0 5.44 3.88 0.86 86 1.1 Jimmy Anderson
Mike Adams 56.0 8.84 2.73 0.80 127 0.9 Mike Maddux
Julio Rodriguez 133.0 8.53 5.08 1.02 85 0.8 Courtney Duncan
Antonio Bastardo 50.3 12.35 4.12 0.89 120 0.7 Ryne Duren
Jonathan Pettibone 144.3 5.68 3.24 1.00 81 0.4 Steve Kelly
Raul Valdes 61.7 8.61 2.19 1.17 95 0.4 Bob Patterson
Justin De Fratus 55.0 8.35 3.27 0.98 99 0.3 Randy St. Claire
Tyler Cloyd 154.3 5.95 2.80 1.28 79 0.3 Tony McKnight
Michael Schwimer 62.3 8.96 3.90 1.01 96 0.2 Jorge Vasquez
Jose Contreras 15.3 8.24 2.94 1.18 94 0.0 Doug Brocail
Jeremy Horst 65.3 7.44 4.00 0.83 88 -0.1 Joe Klink
Michael Stutes 42.3 8.51 5.11 1.06 87 -0.1 Brad Voyles
Justin Friend 53.7 7.37 4.53 0.84 83 -0.2 Paul Schneider
Phillippe Aumont 56.0 9.32 6.59 0.96 80 -0.3 Chris Schroder
Jake Diekman 55.0 9.16 7.36 0.82 79 -0.4 Scott Wiggins
Cesar Jimenez 44.3 6.91 4.67 0.81 76 -0.4 Joey Long
Joe Savery 50.3 5.90 3.40 1.07 77 -0.4 Brian Henderson
B.J. Rosenberg 73.7 7.45 4.03 1.34 72 -0.6 Doug Sessions
Pat Misch 115.7 4.82 2.72 1.32 71 -0.6 Andrew Lorraine
Brandon Erbe 32.3 5.85 5.85 1.39 61 -0.6 Mark Hampton
Zach Miner 46.3 5.05 5.83 1.36 64 -0.7 Elmer Riddle
J.C. Ramirez 62.0 5.95 5.37 1.16 70 -0.9 Sean Green
Ethan Martin 111.3 7.36 7.12 1.78 58 -2.3 Mike Romano

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.09 ERA and the NL having a 3.92 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected WAR.