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2013 ZiPS Projections – San Diego Padres

Posted By Carson Cistulli On February 6, 2013 @ 8:00 am In 2013 ZiPS Projections,Padres | 10 Comments

Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, are being released at FanGraphs this year. Below are the projections for the San Diego Padres. Szymborski can be found on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other 2013 Projections: Angels / Astros / Athletics / Blue Jays / Brewers / Cardinals / Cubs / Diamondbacks / Dodgers / Giants / Mariners / Marlins / Mets / Nationals / Phillies / Pirates / Rangers / Rays / Reds / Rockies / Royals / Tigers / White Sox / Yankees.

Batters
With regard to the projections below, an entirely reasonable person might ask: “To what extent does ZiPS account for catcher Yasmani Grandal‘s 50-game suspension that he was given for a performance-enhancing substance in November — in light, particularly, of how Grandal is given the second-highest WAR projection among all Padres batters?” To which question the author is compelled to answer: “Not at all, unfortunately.” In point of fact, Grandal’s suspension likely calls for his WAR projection to be approximately two-thirded — which the author promises is a verb you can use in business memos or term papers or whatever.

Of note is the very elegant right-field platoon that persists in San Diego. A ninth-round pick out of Princeton and 19th-round pick out of something called Wheaton College, Will Venable and Chris Denorfia, respectively, continue to produce at something demonstrably better than replacement-level.

Pitchers
Extreme park effects might mask it, but ZiPS suggests that there is trouble afoot within the Padres starting rotation — insofar, that is, as the most optimistic projection among their number (Cory Luebke‘s, at 1.7 WAR) is still shy of what we might consider an “average” mark. Moreover, Luebke himself isn’t even expected to be ready for Opening Day after undergoing Tommy John surgery in the middle of last season.

Beyond relievers Huston Street, Luke Gregerson, and Brad Brach, there’s little among the Padres’ expected major-league pitching corps to inspire much in the way of optimism.

Bench/Prospects
If there’s little about which to be excited among the Padres’ expected major-league pitching corps, that’s not necessarily case among their entire pitching corps. Three of the Padres’ top five pitcher WAR projections belong to players who have no clear role to begin the 2013 season. Joe Wieland (Tommy John), Tim Stauffer (minor-league contract), and Andrew Cashner (thumb) are all absent from the Padres’ depth charts. Meanwhile, another triumvirate — Anthony Bass, Robbie Erlin, and Casey Kelly — have given signs that they might deserve a role in the starting rotation.

Depth Chart
Here’s a rough depth chart for the Padres, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player (click to embiggen):

Padres Depth

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Credit to MLB Depth Charts for roster information.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Chase Headley B 29 3B 618 77 146 29 2 18 80 15 4
Yasmani Grandal B 24 C 498 59 109 22 1 12 57 0 0
Cameron Maybin R 26 CF 577 81 128 23 7 10 50 26 6
Jedd Gyorko R 24 3B 557 72 129 26 0 16 67 5 3
Carlos Quentin R 30 LF 443 57 99 25 1 19 65 1 1
Will Venable L 30 RF 486 66 107 20 7 12 53 22 5
Everth Cabrera B 26 SS 481 59 103 19 4 2 32 36 6
Yonder Alonso L 26 1B 590 53 139 33 2 12 63 6 2
Chris Denorfia R 32 RF 399 53 97 19 5 7 33 11 5
Jesus Guzman R 29 LF 462 50 109 25 2 10 63 5 3
James Darnell R 26 3B 415 45 87 19 1 10 41 2 2
Alexi Amarista L 24 2B 544 59 128 24 7 5 55 14 8
Nick Hundley R 29 C 307 29 63 14 3 6 36 1 3
Logan Forsythe R 26 2B 478 61 98 18 4 7 40 11 3
Gregorio Petit R 28 SS 470 47 96 19 0 6 36 4 2
Jason Hagerty B 25 C 413 45 77 19 1 7 39 1 1
Rene Rivera R 29 C 282 25 57 14 1 5 25 0 0
Cory Spangenberg L 22 2B 485 56 106 17 5 3 45 22 11
Jonathan Galvez R 22 2B 491 57 104 24 3 8 51 17 6
Cody Ransom R 37 SS 364 31 63 16 1 10 39 3 1
Rymer Liriano R 22 RF 587 64 126 27 5 8 55 32 17
Jeremy Hermida L 29 RF 340 33 70 14 1 8 31 2 0
Jaff Decker L 23 RF 448 56 75 17 4 10 44 9 4
John Baker L 32 C 172 17 35 7 1 1 11 1 0
Edinson Rincon R 22 3B 538 56 129 28 1 9 54 1 6
Jeudy Valdez R 24 SS 609 66 120 27 4 11 61 18 11
Kyle Blanks R 26 1B 260 33 51 12 2 8 21 1 0
Travis Buck L 29 RF 242 27 51 12 1 3 22 2 1
Mark Kotsay L 37 LF 181 11 43 9 0 2 18 1 1
Matt Clark L 26 1B 571 58 113 21 2 18 64 0 1
Sawyer Carroll L 27 RF 523 52 101 19 6 8 51 7 5

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP BA OBP SLG wOBA
Chase Headley 618 10.8% 21.2% .160 .321 .268 .350 .428 .339
Yasmani Grandal 498 12.9% 23.3% .141 .320 .255 .353 .396 .329
Cameron Maybin 577 8.0% 21.8% .129 .306 .246 .312 .375 .304
Jedd Gyorko 557 7.5% 22.4% .145 .304 .253 .311 .398 .308
Carlos Quentin 443 8.4% 14.7% .220 .265 .259 .352 .479 .357
Will Venable 486 8.2% 23.5% .161 .304 .246 .315 .407 .313
Everth Cabrera 481 8.9% 22.5% .077 .317 .240 .314 .317 .287
Yonder Alonso 590 9.7% 17.6% .139 .306 .263 .336 .402 .317
Chris Denorfia 399 7.3% 14.5% .138 .299 .267 .322 .405 .315
Jesus Guzman 462 7.6% 19.3% .141 .307 .260 .322 .401 .311
James Darnell 415 9.6% 20.7% .139 .280 .236 .314 .375 .302
Alexi Amarista 544 4.4% 13.8% .105 .285 .253 .286 .358 .276
Nick Hundley 307 7.5% 24.4% .138 .285 .227 .288 .365 .277
Logan Forsythe 478 10.5% 23.4% .113 .302 .234 .325 .347 .300
Gregorio Petit 470 5.3% 21.7% .086 .275 .223 .269 .309 .254
Jason Hagerty 413 9.9% 28.3% .116 .289 .212 .299 .328 .277
Rene Rivera 282 5.7% 22.7% .119 .271 .219 .271 .338 .267
Cory Spangenberg 485 7.6% 20.4% .082 .304 .242 .305 .324 .278
Jonathan Galvez 491 6.5% 26.3% .120 .305 .232 .290 .352 .282
Cody Ransom 364 9.1% 35.2% .148 .282 .194 .273 .342 .273
Rymer Liriano 587 6.6% 26.1% .113 .311 .235 .293 .348 .279
Jeremy Hermida 340 8.5% 27.1% .130 .298 .229 .300 .359 .292
Jaff Decker 448 13.8% 27.0% .146 .261 .199 .318 .345 .293
John Baker 172 9.9% 21.5% .078 .296 .229 .310 .307 .272
Edinson Rincon 538 5.2% 19.0% .113 .302 .256 .296 .369 .287
Jeudy Valdez 609 4.3% 27.9% .120 .279 .212 .253 .332 .252
Kyle Blanks 260 9.2% 31.2% .174 .301 .222 .304 .396 .305
Travis Buck 242 7.4% 20.2% .105 .286 .234 .299 .339 .283
Mark Kotsay 181 7.2% 9.9% .090 .279 .259 .315 .349 .286
Matt Clark 571 8.6% 30.6% .154 .291 .221 .289 .375 .289
Sawyer Carroll 523 8.6% 26.4% .116 .282 .214 .282 .330 .267

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def WAR No.1 Comp
Chase Headley 618 5.7 118 2 4.3 Jeff Blauser
Yasmani Grandal 498 5.1 111 0 3.2 Jarrod Saltalamacchia
Cameron Maybin 577 4.5 93 5 2.6 Marlon Byrd
Jedd Gyorko 557 4.5 98 -1 2.0 Eddie Williams
Carlos Quentin 443 6.1 132 -7 2.0 Gary Roenicke
Will Venable 486 4.9 102 2 1.8 Michael Tucker
Everth Cabrera 481 4.1 79 -2 1.7 Gary Weiss
Yonder Alonso 590 5.0 107 -2 1.5 Steve Cox
Chris Denorfia 399 4.8 104 1 1.2 Alex Ochoa
Jesus Guzman 462 4.7 103 -1 1.2 Marty Cordova
James Darnell 415 4.1 94 -2 1.1 Fritzie Connally
Alexi Amarista 544 3.7 81 1 1.0 Juan Castro
Nick Hundley 307 3.5 83 1 1.0 Jayhawk Owens
Logan Forsythe 478 4.1 90 -6 0.9 Sam Khalifa
Gregorio Petit 470 2.9 63 3 0.7 Gera Alvarez
Jason Hagerty 413 3.3 77 -5 0.7 Luke Montz
Rene Rivera 282 3.2 71 0 0.6 Tom Nieto
Cory Spangenberg 485 3.5 78 -3 0.5 Juan Bell
Jonathan Galvez 491 3.7 80 -7 0.4 Delwyn Young
Cody Ransom 364 3.2 72 -4 0.3 Mike Bordick
Rymer Liriano 587 3.6 80 2 0.3 Stan Javier
Jeremy Hermida 340 3.8 85 -1 0.3 Orsino Hill
Jaff Decker 448 3.7 87 -3 0.2 Paul Rappoli
John Baker 172 3.4 75 -3 0.2 Jamie Quirk
Edinson Rincon 538 3.7 86 -9 0.1 Aurelio Rodriguez
Jeudy Valdez 609 2.8 64 -4 0.1 Kelly Dransfeldt
Kyle Blanks 260 4.2 96 -3 0.1 Jeff Baker
Travis Buck 242 3.6 80 0 0.1 Jeff Wetherby
Mark Kotsay 181 3.9 88 -2 0.0 Brian Jordan
Matt Clark 571 3.7 86 -5 -0.3 John-Ford Griffin
Sawyer Carroll 523 3.1 72 0 -0.4 Nathan Panther

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player T Age G GS IP SO BB HR H R ER
Cory Luebke L 28 16 16 96.0 90 30 8 83 37 35
Edinson Volquez R 29 27 27 154.3 145 85 14 141 75 70
Joe Wieland R 23 16 15 87.7 71 21 9 85 37 35
Tim Stauffer R 31 19 19 110.0 74 33 10 109 50 47
Andrew Cashner R 26 19 19 99.3 93 39 10 90 45 42
Clayton Richard L 29 26 26 163.7 94 45 19 172 81 76
Freddy Garcia R 36 24 18 112.7 81 35 11 110 52 49
Anthony Bass R 25 33 18 110.3 86 43 11 105 52 49
Casey Kelly R 23 21 21 106.0 78 35 10 109 52 49
Robbie Erlin L 22 20 19 95.7 85 26 13 95 47 44
Luke Gregerson R 29 72 0 66.0 64 20 6 57 25 23
Huston Street R 29 50 0 47.3 53 13 5 37 16 15
Donn Roach R 23 19 17 114.7 70 40 10 119 59 55
Eric Stults L 33 21 21 116.0 69 45 12 122 61 57
Brad Boxberger R 25 60 0 64.7 79 38 6 52 27 25
Brad Brach R 27 74 0 72.3 76 26 8 64 31 29
Kevin Quackenbush R 24 48 0 49.7 55 24 4 42 20 19
Joe Thatcher L 31 48 0 28.3 33 11 2 23 11 10
Tyson Ross R 26 29 19 108.0 78 54 9 111 58 54
Micah Owings R 30 22 4 47.0 38 21 5 45 22 21
Nick Vincent R 26 60 0 67.3 61 27 7 61 30 28
Dale Thayer R 32 61 0 63.7 50 19 6 63 29 27
Miles Mikolas R 24 60 0 68.7 52 28 6 67 32 30
Anthony Reyes R 31 5 3 13.0 9 6 1 13 7 7
Bear Bay R 29 24 19 124.3 64 39 15 138 71 66
Jeff Suppan R 38 13 13 71.7 31 26 9 80 42 39
Brandon Kloess R 28 38 0 65.3 49 35 5 65 33 31
Jason Marquis R 34 19 19 109.7 71 38 15 121 64 60
Daniel Stange R 27 46 0 53.7 40 29 6 53 29 27
Sean O’Sullivan R 25 28 21 130.0 65 53 15 143 77 72
Tom Layne L 28 46 16 109.7 68 62 12 118 66 62
Wilfredo Boscan R 23 30 15 104.0 59 46 13 117 64 60
Kip Wells R 36 15 13 71.7 31 49 9 82 49 46
Keyvius Sampson R 22 25 24 108.3 94 79 15 107 71 66
Josh Geer R 30 20 19 111.7 50 35 16 134 73 68
Thad Weber R 28 26 24 143.0 79 53 22 163 92 86
Adys Portillo R 21 25 24 99.3 79 90 13 99 68 64

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Cory Luebke 96.0 401 22.4% 7.5% .277 3.28 3.15 91 87
Edinson Volquez 154.3 689 21.0% 12.3% .290 4.08 4.02 113 111
Joe Wieland 87.7 369 19.2% 5.7% .288 3.59 3.54 100 98
Tim Stauffer 110.0 472 15.7% 7.0% .282 3.85 3.77 107 104
Andrew Cashner 99.3 427 21.8% 9.1% .284 3.81 3.65 106 101
Clayton Richard 163.7 708 13.3% 6.4% .280 4.18 4.19 116 116
Freddy Garcia 112.7 483 16.8% 7.2% .280 3.91 3.77 108 104
Anthony Bass 110.3 479 18.0% 9.0% .280 4.00 3.94 111 109
Casey Kelly 106.0 462 16.9% 7.6% .298 4.16 3.92 115 109
Robbie Erlin 95.7 408 20.8% 6.4% .296 4.14 4.00 115 111
Luke Gregerson 66.0 275 23.3% 7.3% .279 3.14 3.11 87 86
Huston Street 47.3 192 27.6% 6.8% .267 2.85 2.96 79 82
Donn Roach 114.7 503 13.9% 8.0% .288 4.32 4.09 120 114
Eric Stults 116.0 515 13.4% 8.7% .286 4.42 4.45 123 123
Brad Boxberger 64.7 284 27.8% 13.4% .295 3.48 3.72 96 103
Brad Brach 72.3 307 24.8% 8.5% .290 3.61 3.38 100 94
Kevin Quackenbush 49.7 215 25.6% 11.2% .294 3.44 3.47 95 96
Joe Thatcher 28.3 119 27.8% 9.3% .296 3.18 2.76 88 76
Tyson Ross 108.0 489 16.0% 11.0% .298 4.50 4.26 125 118
Micah Owings 47.0 207 18.4% 10.1% .286 4.02 4.30 111 119
Nick Vincent 67.3 290 21.0% 9.3% .283 3.74 3.88 104 108
Dale Thayer 63.7 273 18.3% 7.0% .291 3.82 3.55 106 99
Miles Mikolas 68.7 301 17.3% 9.3% .289 3.93 4.02 109 112
Anthony Reyes 13.0 58 15.5% 10.3% .293 4.85 4.24 134 117
Bear Bay 124.3 550 11.6% 7.1% .289 4.78 4.65 133 129
Jeff Suppan 71.7 321 9.7% 8.1% .282 4.90 4.90 136 136
Brandon Kloess 65.3 296 16.6% 11.8% .296 4.27 4.25 118 118
Jason Marquis 109.7 488 14.5% 7.8% .295 4.92 4.61 136 128
Daniel Stange 53.7 243 16.5% 11.9% .285 4.53 4.70 126 130
Sean O’Sullivan 130.0 586 11.1% 9.0% .287 4.98 4.84 138 134
Tom Layne 109.7 509 13.4% 12.2% .295 5.09 5.05 141 140
Wilfredo Boscan 104.0 475 12.4% 9.7% .297 5.19 5.00 144 139
Kip Wells 71.7 346 9.0% 14.2% .287 5.78 5.86 160 163
Keyvius Sampson 108.3 511 18.4% 15.5% .292 5.48 5.45 152 151
Josh Geer 111.7 504 9.9% 6.9% .299 5.48 5.07 152 141
Thad Weber 143.0 645 12.2% 8.2% .293 5.41 5.18 150 144
Adys Portillo 99.3 487 16.2% 18.5% .290 5.80 6.05 161 168

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ WAR No. 1 Comp
Cory Luebke 96.0 8.44 2.81 0.75 111 1.7 Pete Schourek
Edinson Volquez 154.3 8.46 4.96 0.82 90 1.3 Ted Power
Joe Wieland 87.7 7.29 2.16 0.92 102 1.2 Jose Martinez
Tim Stauffer 110.0 6.05 2.70 0.82 95 1.2 Brian Lawrence
Andrew Cashner 99.3 8.43 3.53 0.91 96 1.1 Roger Pavlik
Clayton Richard 163.7 5.17 2.47 1.04 87 1.1 Rick Honeycutt
Freddy Garcia 112.7 6.47 2.80 0.88 93 1.1 Bob Walk
Anthony Bass 110.3 7.02 3.51 0.90 91 0.9 Kevin Correia
Casey Kelly 106.0 6.62 2.97 0.85 88 0.8 Mark Knudson
Robbie Erlin 95.7 7.99 2.45 1.22 88 0.7 Rheal Cormier
Luke Gregerson 66.0 8.73 2.73 0.82 117 0.7 Dan Miceli
Huston Street 47.3 10.08 2.47 0.95 128 0.7 Trevor Hoffman
Donn Roach 114.7 5.49 3.14 0.78 85 0.6 Shawn Hill
Eric Stults 116.0 5.35 3.49 0.93 83 0.5 Darren Oliver
Brad Boxberger 64.7 10.99 5.29 0.83 105 0.4 Jeff Zaske
Brad Brach 72.3 9.46 3.24 1.00 101 0.3 Pete Ladd
Kevin Quackenbush 49.7 9.96 4.35 0.72 106 0.3 Brian Bruney
Joe Thatcher 28.3 10.49 3.50 0.64 115 0.3 George Sherrill
Tyson Ross 108.0 6.50 4.50 0.75 81 0.2 Tim Byron
Micah Owings 47.0 7.28 4.02 0.96 91 0.2 Mike Cook
Nick Vincent 67.3 8.16 3.61 0.94 98 0.2 Jim Dougherty
Dale Thayer 63.7 7.06 2.68 0.85 96 0.1 Gil Heredia
Miles Mikolas 68.7 6.81 3.67 0.79 93 0.0 Sebastian Kemp
Anthony Reyes 13.0 6.23 4.15 0.69 75 0.0 Junior Walsh
Bear Bay 124.3 4.63 2.82 1.09 77 -0.1 Clay Condrey
Jeff Suppan 71.7 3.89 3.26 1.13 75 -0.1 Scott Erickson
Brandon Kloess 65.3 6.75 4.82 0.69 86 -0.2 Mike Bumstead
Jason Marquis 109.7 5.82 3.12 1.23 74 -0.2 Jose Lima
Daniel Stange 53.7 6.70 4.86 1.01 81 -0.4 Mike Zimmerman
Sean O’Sullivan 130.0 4.50 3.67 1.04 73 -0.4 Steve Stemle
Tom Layne 109.7 5.58 5.09 0.98 72 -0.7 Randy Flores
Wilfredo Boscan 104.0 5.11 3.98 1.13 70 -0.7 Roger Doman
Kip Wells 71.7 3.89 6.15 1.13 63 -0.9 Doug Davis
Keyvius Sampson 108.3 7.81 6.57 1.25 67 -1.0 Kevin Uhrhan
Josh Geer 111.7 4.03 2.82 1.29 67 -1.0 Allen Davis
Thad Weber 143.0 4.97 3.34 1.38 68 -1.2 Kyle Middleton
Adys Portillo 99.3 7.16 8.16 1.18 63 -1.3 Ivan Montane

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.09 ERA and the NL having a 3.92 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected WAR.


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