- FanGraphs Baseball - http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs -

2013 ZiPS Projections – San Francisco Giants

Posted By Carson Cistulli On December 19, 2012 @ 8:00 am In 2013 ZiPS Projections,Giants | 66 Comments

Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, will be released at FanGraphs this year. Below is the first set of 2013′s projections — for the World Series champion San Francisco Giants. Don’t hesitate to leave notes regarding format/presentation in the comments section, as the author frequently has no idea what he’s doing.

Other thing: Szymborski himself will be chatting at Noon ET today in these very same electronic pages, and will happily answer any questions readers have regarding the projections themselves.

Batters
The Giants’ success is tied pretty strongly to the health and success of Buster Posey — not merely because only one player (i.e. Mike Trout) posted a higher WAR than Posey in 2012, but also because San Francisco’s catching corps lacks anything like impact talent. At 23, Hector Sanchez certainly has some promise, but even approaching Posey’s production would be a considerable challenge.

Of some interest will be how well the club is able to account for the departure of Melky Cabrera. While they were obviously able to win a championship following his suspension, Cabrera was also integral to the Giants’ regular-season performance, posting a 4.6 WAR in just 113 games (501 plate appearances). Manning the corners now will be Hunter Pence in right field and (likely) a platoon of Gregor Blanco and Andres Torres in left. ZiPS is optimistic neither about Blanco’s ability to match his career-high 2.4 wins from 2012, nor Pence’s ability to earn the entirety of the ca. $14 million he’s likely to receive in arbitration.

Pitchers
Allow the author to make all necessary caveats and disclaimers regarding, in particular, Matt Cain‘s ability to prevent runs above and beyond those inputs for which WAR accounts. Adjudged solely by runs allowed per nine innings, Cain was worth 6.1 wins in 2012 — and has exceeded his WAR totals by ca. 10 wins by that measure over the course of his career. He’s good. Everyone acknowledges it. Huz-zah.

Otherwise, besides the departure of Brian Wilson (who was non-tendered) and a couple pieces maybe at the very back end of the bullpen, almost the entire pitching staff returns. Tim Lincecum‘s No. 1 comparable player, Tom Gordon, is notable, perhaps: Gordon was an undersized right-hander who made 203 starts between his age-20 and -29 seasons before becoming a dominant reliever. Lincecum, who enters his own age-29 season, has made 188 starts. Despite an underwhelming season in the rotation, Lincecum was excellent out of the bullpen during the postseason.

Bench/Prospects
Mostly owing to their defensive acumen — which is substantiated by scouting reports — both outfielder Gary Brown and shortstop Ehire Adrianza profile as potentially useful pieces in the present, should injury or ineffectiveness elsewhere require their presence. Much of Joe Panik‘s profile — high-contact infielder who’s probably more appropriately deployed at second base than shortstop — resembles the recently re-signed Marco Scutaro‘s. Now out of options, Conor Gillaspie will serve as depth at first and third (and maybe second) at the major-league level.

Depth Chart
Here’s a rough depth chart for the Giants, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player (click to embiggen):

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Credit to MLB Depth Charts for roster information.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Buster Posey R 26 C 583 75 153 30 2 20 86 3 1
Pablo Sandoval B 26 3B 547 68 141 30 3 18 76 2 3
Angel Pagan B 31 CF 610 81 151 32 9 8 55 25 8
Brandon Belt L 25 1B 544 63 124 28 5 13 67 12 5
Gary Brown R 24 CF 654 78 151 30 6 6 52 29 16
Hunter Pence R 30 RF 665 82 159 28 4 18 90 9 4
Andres Torres B 35 CF 425 54 87 21 6 6 37 14 5
Joe Panik L 22 SS 640 77 153 27 4 4 57 7 4
Marco Scutaro R 37 2B 542 53 132 24 3 5 45 6 3
Conor Gillaspie L 25 3B 566 59 132 23 5 8 57 2 4
Brandon Crawford L 26 SS 475 49 99 21 4 6 42 4 5
Ehire Adrianza B 23 SS 531 50 106 26 5 4 42 10 4
Hector Sanchez B 23 C 362 34 88 20 1 6 57 0 1
Joaquin Arias R 28 SS 371 39 90 15 3 4 35 6 1
Adam Duvall R 24 3B 615 63 122 25 4 16 67 4 4
Gregor Blanco L 29 RF 400 50 78 14 4 4 25 21 5
Brett Pill R 28 1B 543 56 131 29 2 13 67 4 3
Nick Noonan L 24 SS 548 55 121 21 3 4 47 6 4
Guillermo Quiroz R 31 C 333 35 68 14 2 6 38 0 1
Freddy Sanchez R 35 2B 224 23 55 11 1 3 24 1 1
Francisco Peguero R 25 RF 515 56 129 17 9 4 54 13 6
Roger Kieschnick L 26 LF 398 48 83 16 5 10 43 4 4
Aubrey Huff L 36 1B 278 24 59 12 0 5 28 2 1
Todd Linden B 33 1B 387 42 82 17 4 5 35 2 2
Juan Perez R 26 RF 573 61 129 26 6 7 48 14 11
Ryan Theriot R 33 2B 487 54 118 19 2 1 36 11 7
Tyler LaTorre L 30 C 179 17 33 8 0 1 15 0 1
Xavier Nady R 34 LF 254 22 51 10 0 4 23 1 0
Wes Hodges R 28 1B 384 33 83 19 1 6 35 2 1

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP BA OBP SLG wOBA
Buster Posey 583 10.1% 15.6% .184 .326 .299 .372 .482 .363
Pablo Sandoval 547 7.9% 13.7% .182 .300 .285 .338 .467 .334
Angel Pagan 610 6.9% 14.4% .132 .306 .270 .320 .403 .311
Brandon Belt 544 12.3% 22.8% .164 .330 .264 .358 .429 .341
Gary Brown 654 5.5% 17.0% .101 .303 .255 .314 .356 .293
Hunter Pence 665 7.4% 18.6% .148 .299 .262 .317 .410 .316
Andres Torres 425 10.4% 22.8% .136 .298 .233 .318 .369 .303
Joe Panik 640 7.2% 11.3% .080 .290 .262 .318 .342 .292
Marco Scutaro 542 6.3% 7.9% .092 .283 .269 .316 .360 .294
Conor Gillaspie 566 7.4% 15.9% .111 .295 .256 .313 .367 .293
Brandon Crawford 475 7.6% 23.2% .109 .293 .230 .292 .340 .272
Ehire Adrianza 531 6.8% 21.1% .100 .279 .221 .280 .321 .262
Hector Sanchez 362 3.9% 20.7% .117 .308 .257 .285 .373 .283
Joaquin Arias 371 3.2% 13.5% .095 .288 .258 .285 .352 .275
Adam Duvall 615 7.0% 24.4% .145 .268 .219 .283 .364 .281
Gregor Blanco 400 11.8% 22.0% .099 .292 .227 .322 .326 .293
Brett Pill 543 4.1% 14.4% .142 .280 .258 .295 .400 .298
Nick Noonan 548 6.4% 19.5% .078 .295 .241 .290 .318 .264
Guillermo Quiroz 333 6.0% 25.5% .118 .286 .223 .275 .341 .266
Freddy Sanchez 224 5.4% 14.7% .107 .304 .268 .312 .376 .294
Francisco Peguero 515 2.5% 19.8% .095 .320 .262 .283 .357 .276
Roger Kieschnick 398 6.0% 30.4% .152 .303 .226 .274 .378 .279
Aubrey Huff 278 9.4% 15.8% .109 .267 .239 .309 .348 .285
Todd Linden 387 8.0% 25.6% .114 .310 .234 .302 .349 .286
Juan Perez 573 3.8% 23.6% .109 .303 .238 .271 .346 .267
Ryan Theriot 487 6.0% 11.1% .058 .297 .265 .312 .323 .277
Tyler LaTorre 179 8.4% 26.3% .069 .286 .208 .282 .277 .246
Xavier Nady 254 5.5% 24.8% .094 .278 .218 .272 .312 .258
Wes Hodges 384 3.6% 25.0% .107 .291 .227 .258 .334 .259

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def WAR No.1 Comp
Buster Posey 583 6.9 139 5 6.5 Joe Torre
Pablo Sandoval 547 5.9 125 2 4.1 Jim Lefebvre
Angel Pagan 610 4.9 103 4 3.5 Mookie Wilson
Brandon Belt 544 5.7 121 1 2.7 Johnny Callison
Gary Brown 654 4.0 89 5 2.1 Lemmie Miller
Hunter Pence 665 4.8 104 -1 2.1 Gary Matthews
Andres Torres 425 4.2 94 4 2.1 Mitch Webster
Joe Panik 640 4.0 87 -6 1.9 Liu Rodriguez
Marco Scutaro 542 4.2 91 0 1.9 Mark Loretta
Conor Gillaspie 566 4.0 91 1 1.8 Ernest Riles
Brandon Crawford 475 3.3 78 6 1.7 Craig Cooper
Ehire Adrianza 531 3.2 69 3 1.5 Pedro Sanchez
Hector Sanchez 362 3.8 84 0 1.3 Rich Gedman
Joaquin Arias 371 3.8 79 -2 1.2 Luis Maza
Adam Duvall 615 3.5 82 -3 1.2 Corey Smith
Gregor Blanco 400 4.0 84 4 1.1 Reggie Williams
Brett Pill 543 4.3 94 0 1.0 Dan Rohrmeier
Nick Noonan 548 3.2 72 -5 0.7 Gregorio Petit
Guillermo Quiroz 333 3.2 73 -3 0.7 Chad Moeller
Freddy Sanchez 224 4.3 94 0 0.7 Mark Grudzielanek
Francisco Peguero 515 3.7 79 4 0.6 Alexis Rios
Roger Kieschnick 398 3.5 82 1 0.4 Matt Cimo
Aubrey Huff 278 3.8 86 0 0.4 Dave May
Todd Linden 387 3.7 84 0 0.3 Mitch Webster
Juan Perez 573 3.2 73 4 0.2 Drew Anderson
Ryan Theriot 487 3.6 80 -7 0.0 Brian Dallimore
Tyler LaTorre 179 2.5 59 -1 -0.3 Tom Nieto
Xavier Nady 254 3.0 65 0 -0.3 Chad Moeller
Wes Hodges 384 3.0 66 -1 -0.5 Nilson Robledo

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player T Age G GS IP SO BB HR H R ER
Matt Cain R 28 31 31 210.7 179 55 17 179 75 70
Madison Bumgarner L 23 33 33 209.0 195 49 19 190 80 75
Tim Lincecum R 29 31 31 188.7 194 78 18 169 82 77
Ryan Vogelsong R 35 28 27 163.7 130 57 15 155 72 67
Sergio Romo R 30 66 0 52.0 64 11 4 39 14 13
Barry Zito L 35 24 23 135.7 91 53 15 134 70 65
Santiago Casilla R 32 60 0 56.3 51 24 5 49 22 21
Chris Heston R 25 23 23 136.7 86 50 11 148 72 67
Jose Mijares L 28 65 0 50.7 48 21 4 44 20 19
Jeremy Affeldt L 34 58 0 55.0 48 22 4 50 22 21
Brian Wilson R 31 47 0 48.0 49 23 3 42 19 18
Mike Kickham L 24 25 24 123.3 99 64 11 123 65 61
Eric Surkamp L 24 19 19 104.3 81 50 7 107 52 49
Javier Lopez L 35 65 0 41.3 31 17 2 39 17 16
Brett Bochy R 25 41 0 47.3 54 27 4 37 20 19
George Kontos R 28 51 2 70.0 58 25 7 67 32 30
Clay Hensley R 33 53 3 61.3 49 27 6 57 29 27
Heath Hembree R 24 51 0 47.3 47 28 4 40 21 20
Chad Gaudin R 30 37 3 63.7 49 23 6 64 31 29
Yusmeiro Petit R 28 21 17 98.0 67 30 10 111 55 51
Dan Runzler L 28 43 4 48.0 44 27 3 47 25 23
Brad Penny R 35 22 10 73.0 37 25 7 82 41 38
Shane Loux R 33 41 0 53.3 29 16 4 56 26 24
Dan Otero R 28 48 0 59.0 38 12 5 65 29 27
Guillermo Mota R 39 34 0 42.7 39 16 5 42 21 20
Boof Bonser R 31 17 8 42.0 24 20 4 47 26 24
Jake Dunning R 24 44 3 71.7 48 26 6 79 39 36
Clayton Blackburn R 20 22 22 125.7 95 27 24 137 75 70
Mitch Lively R 27 50 0 69.0 47 32 5 71 36 34
Scott Munter R 33 38 1 49.3 36 27 4 53 29 27
Jean Machi R 31 56 0 57.3 37 25 6 63 33 31
Steve Edlefsen R 28 50 0 56.3 36 32 5 60 33 31
Brian Burres L 32 24 21 107.3 65 50 15 126 72 67
Eric Hacker R 30 27 24 134.0 75 55 15 166 88 82
Edwin Escobar L 21 20 19 91.7 60 39 18 108 65 61

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Matt Cain 210.7 853 21.0% 6.5% .265 2.99 3.30 78 86
Madison Bumgarner 209.0 850 23.0% 5.8% .285 3.23 3.11 84 81
Tim Lincecum 188.7 800 24.3% 9.8% .289 3.67 3.53 96 92
Ryan Vogelsong 163.7 689 18.9% 8.3% .283 3.68 3.76 96 98
Sergio Romo 52.0 202 31.6% 5.4% .279 2.25 2.33 59 61
Barry Zito 135.7 583 15.6% 9.1% .273 4.31 4.36 112 114
Santiago Casilla 56.3 236 21.6% 10.2% .277 3.36 3.66 88 95
Chris Heston 136.7 601 14.3% 8.3% .300 4.41 4.18 115 109
Jose Mijares 50.7 213 22.6% 9.9% .285 3.38 3.53 88 92
Jeremy Affeldt 55.0 232 20.7% 9.5% .289 3.44 3.55 90 92
Brian Wilson 48.0 205 23.9% 11.2% .296 3.38 3.24 88 84
Mike Kickham 123.3 551 18.0% 11.6% .294 4.45 4.38 116 114
Eric Surkamp 104.3 464 17.5% 10.8% .306 4.23 4.00 110 104
Javier Lopez 41.3 174 17.8% 9.8% .296 3.48 3.24 91 84
Brett Bochy 47.3 201 26.9% 13.5% .281 3.61 3.56 94 93
George Kontos 70.0 299 19.4% 8.4% .282 3.86 3.94 101 103
Clay Hensley 61.3 263 18.6% 10.3% .277 3.96 4.14 103 108
Heath Hembree 47.3 208 22.6% 13.5% .278 3.80 4.17 99 109
Chad Gaudin 63.7 273 18.0% 8.4% .295 4.10 3.96 107 103
Yusmeiro Petit 98.0 430 15.6% 7.0% .309 4.68 4.16 122 108
Dan Runzler 48.0 215 20.5% 12.6% .311 4.31 3.82 112 100
Brad Penny 73.0 321 11.5% 7.8% .291 4.68 4.40 122 114
Shane Loux 53.3 228 12.7% 7.0% .287 4.05 3.94 105 103
Dan Otero 59.0 250 15.2% 4.8% .306 4.12 3.67 107 96
Guillermo Mota 42.7 183 21.3% 8.7% .294 4.22 3.98 110 104
Boof Bonser 42.0 191 12.6% 10.5% .297 5.14 4.76 134 124
Jake Dunning 71.7 316 15.2% 8.2% .307 4.52 4.06 118 106
Clayton Blackburn 125.7 535 17.8% 5.0% .279 5.01 4.90 130 128
Mitch Lively 69.0 306 15.4% 10.5% .298 4.43 4.24 115 110
Scott Munter 49.3 224 16.0% 12.0% .309 4.93 4.45 128 116
Jean Machi 57.3 256 14.5% 9.8% .298 4.87 4.58 127 119
Steve Edlefsen 56.3 257 14.0% 12.4% .296 4.95 4.78 129 125
Brian Burres 107.3 492 13.2% 10.2% .300 5.62 5.24 146 136
Eric Hacker 134.0 614 12.2% 9.0% .317 5.51 4.80 143 125
Edwin Escobar 91.7 418 14.4% 9.3% .289 5.99 5.84 156 152

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ WAR No. 1 Comp
Matt Cain 210.7 7.65 2.35 0.73 121 4.2 Freddy Garcia
Madison Bumgarner 209.0 8.40 2.11 0.82 112 3.5 Eric Milton
Tim Lincecum 188.7 9.25 3.72 0.86 98 2.2 Tom Gordon
Ryan Vogelsong 163.7 7.15 3.13 0.82 98 1.9 Mike Torrez
Sergio Romo 52.0 11.08 1.90 0.69 161 1.4 Ugueth Urbina
Barry Zito 135.7 6.04 3.52 0.99 84 0.6 Bob Knepper
Santiago Casilla 56.3 8.15 3.84 0.80 108 0.5 Doug Bochtler
Chris Heston 136.7 5.66 3.29 0.72 82 0.4 Mike LaCoss
Jose Mijares 50.7 8.52 3.73 0.71 107 0.4 Randy Choate
Jeremy Affeldt 55.0 7.85 3.60 0.65 105 0.4 Scott Schoeneweis
Brian Wilson 48.0 9.19 4.31 0.56 107 0.4 Mike MacDougal
Mike Kickham 123.3 7.23 4.67 0.80 81 0.3 Brandon Claussen
Eric Surkamp 104.3 6.99 4.31 0.60 82 0.3 John Daniels
Javier Lopez 41.3 6.76 3.70 0.44 104 0.3 Vic Darensbourg
Brett Bochy 47.3 10.27 5.14 0.76 100 0.2 Eric Cammack
George Kontos 70.0 7.46 3.21 0.90 94 0.2 Joey McLaughlin
Clay Hensley 61.3 7.19 3.96 0.88 91 0.1 Jim Czajkowski
Heath Hembree 47.3 8.94 5.33 0.76 95 0.1 Brad Voyles
Chad Gaudin 63.7 6.92 3.25 0.85 88 0.1 Steve Crawford
Yusmeiro Petit 98.0 6.15 2.76 0.92 77 0.0 Doug Waechter
Dan Runzler 48.0 8.25 5.06 0.56 84 -0.1 Steve Colyer
Brad Penny 73.0 4.56 3.08 0.86 77 -0.1 Jim Barr
Shane Loux 53.3 4.90 2.70 0.68 89 -0.1 Mike Barlow
Dan Otero 59.0 5.80 1.83 0.76 88 -0.2 Jeff Tam
Guillermo Mota 42.7 8.22 3.37 1.05 86 -0.2 Jose Mesa
Boof Bonser 42.0 5.14 4.29 0.86 70 -0.3 Elmer Riddle
Jake Dunning 71.7 6.03 3.26 0.75 80 -0.4 Rich DeLosSantos
Clayton Blackburn 125.7 6.80 1.93 1.72 72 -0.5 John Gardner
Mitch Lively 69.0 6.13 4.17 0.65 81 -0.6 Jose Segura
Scott Munter 49.3 6.57 4.93 0.73 73 -0.7 Ernie Camacho
Jean Machi 57.3 5.81 3.93 0.94 74 -0.9 Mike Sullivan
Steve Edlefsen 56.3 5.75 5.12 0.80 73 -0.9 Ryan Baker
Brian Burres 107.3 5.45 4.19 1.26 64 -1.2 Brian Barnes
Eric Hacker 134.0 5.04 3.69 1.01 66 -1.3 Dennis Tankersley
Edwin Escobar 91.7 5.89 3.83 1.77 60 -1.4 Greg Hibbard

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.09 ERA and the NL having a 3.92 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected WAR.

Dan Szymborski can be found on Twitter @DSzymborski.


Article printed from FanGraphs Baseball: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs

URL to article: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2013-zips-projections-san-francisco-giants/

Copyright © 2009 FanGraphs Baseball. All rights reserved.