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2013 ZiPS Projections – Seattle Mariners

Posted By Carson Cistulli On January 30, 2013 @ 8:00 am In 2013 ZiPS Projections,Featured,Mariners | 81 Comments

Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, are being released at FanGraphs this year. Below are the projections for the Seattle Mariners. Szymborski can be found on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other 2013 Projections: Angels / Astros / Athletics / Blue Jays / Brewers / Cardinals / Cubs / Diamondbacks / Giants / Mets / Nationals / Phillies / Pirates / Rangers / Rays / Reds / Rockies / Royals / Tigers / White Sox.

Batters
One, choosing to wax optimistic with regard to the projections below, would note that five of the top six players by projected WAR on the Mariners are either 25 years old or younger. Dustin Ackley, Mike Zunino, Kyle Seager, Jesus Montero, and (less immediately) Brad Miller: not only might they form a young, cost-controlled nucleus around which the front office can build, but their youth suggests that improvement is not only possible, but likely.

Another, choosing to be less optimistic — perhaps because he knows that, as a resident of Seattle, summer proper is still ca. six months away and that the city will remain ensconced in a 45-degree rain cloud until then — perhaps that other one would emphasize the lack of impact talent among the club’s field players and how recent acquisitions (like Jason Bay, Raul Ibanez, Kendrys Morales, and Michael Morse) address the team’s needs, but by too little.

Pitchers
If there’s a legitimately optimistic, and also equally legitimate pessimistic, perspective one might assume with regard to the club’s batting corps, that’s less the case with the starting rotation, about which one might say “Felix Hernandez and… pray for rain… for four days.” Neither Hisashi Iwakuma nor Erasmo Ramirez are projected to be disasters, but they also don’t appear to be what one might call “anchors of the rotation.”

The bullpen — in ZiPS’ estimation, at least — is constructed similarly to the rotation, with one decidedly competent piece (in this case, Tom Wilhelmsen) followed by a number of mediocre ones. True, that assessment might be unfair to left-hander Charlie Furbush, whose projection is also somewhat promising — but that information interferes with the author’s narrative and is being ignored for that purpose.

Bench/Prospects
More than most teams we’ve considered so far, it seems, the bulk of the Seattle Mariners’ talent is at the minor-league level. Neither Zunino nor Miller nor Nick Franklin is likely to begin the season on the major-league roster. Likewise for the pitching triumvirate of Danny Hultzen, James Paxton, and Taijuan Walker. But at least some portion of those six pieces will be of some help to the team in the near future. What the ZiPS projections also remind us is how Carlos Triunfel enters just his age-23 season.

Depth Chart
Here’s a rough depth chart for the Mariners, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player (click to embiggen):

Mariners Depth

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Credit to MLB Depth Charts for roster information.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Dustin Ackley L 25 2B 690 97 152 27 6 13 56 11 3
Mike Zunino R 22 C 598 86 135 22 0 16 66 3 2
Kyle Seager L 25 3B 663 80 160 34 2 14 75 12 7
Jesus Montero R 23 C 597 60 145 23 1 18 70 0 1
Brendan Ryan R 31 SS 473 52 95 18 3 3 34 11 4
Brad Miller L 23 SS 666 87 146 27 4 9 54 16 7
Franklin Gutierrez R 30 CF 409 48 91 17 2 8 38 11 2
Michael Saunders L 26 CF 517 71 107 22 3 14 50 15 4
Kendrys Morales B 30 DH 411 48 100 18 1 16 52 1 2
Nick Franklin B 22 SS 540 63 114 21 5 8 39 11 4
Carlos Triunfel R 23 SS 626 66 142 29 2 7 50 5 4
Casper Wells R 28 RF 405 51 79 17 3 13 38 5 4
Leon Landry L 23 CF 571 62 131 24 10 6 47 20 12
Justin Smoak B 26 1B 552 57 112 20 0 18 58 1 0
Michael Morse R 31 1B 481 53 112 19 1 17 57 1 1
Stefen Romero R 24 2B 560 64 129 23 3 14 61 9 8
Eric Farris R 27 2B 534 45 120 17 2 5 29 24 8
Miguel Olivo R 34 C 387 42 81 14 1 14 41 5 5
Vinnie Catricala R 24 3B 607 65 131 29 2 11 59 8 3
Alex Liddi R 24 3B 581 73 118 25 3 15 62 7 5
Robert Andino R 29 2B 480 51 100 17 1 6 31 9 4
Ronny Paulino R 32 C 273 21 62 12 1 2 19 0 0
Munenori Kawasaki L 32 SS 444 52 102 11 3 1 33 14 8
Jesus Sucre R 25 C 367 34 82 13 0 3 25 1 2
Jason Bay R 34 LF 372 40 70 10 1 10 35 8 1
Mike Carp L 27 1B 506 58 109 21 1 16 60 3 3
Raul Ibanez L 41 LF 435 45 95 19 2 14 50 2 0
Eric Thames L 26 LF 564 59 119 23 5 13 50 4 3
Julio Morban L 21 CF 429 49 88 14 3 9 36 6 4
Francisco Martinez R 22 3B 519 56 108 16 3 4 35 17 9
Chone Figgins B 35 LF 367 38 74 11 2 2 20 15 7
Carlos Peguero L 26 RF 484 59 92 15 3 16 52 4 4
Mike Jacobs L 32 1B 464 39 85 15 1 12 43 1 1

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP BA OBP SLG wOBA
Dustin Ackley 690 9.9% 17.5% .126 .287 .247 .322 .373 .305
Mike Zunino 598 7.7% 22.2% .131 .302 .251 .318 .382 .301
Kyle Seager 663 6.9% 17.0% .132 .302 .264 .319 .396 .311
Jesus Montero 597 6.2% 19.1% .144 .299 .263 .310 .407 .305
Brendan Ryan 473 7.4% 18.6% .078 .276 .227 .292 .305 .264
Brad Miller 666 7.8% 21.2% .103 .298 .241 .300 .344 .284
Franklin Gutierrez 409 6.4% 19.8% .121 .287 .243 .293 .364 .286
Michael Saunders 517 9.1% 26.3% .150 .294 .231 .302 .381 .300
Kendrys Morales 411 6.6% 20.7% .181 .301 .265 .319 .446 .325
Nick Franklin 540 6.7% 24.6% .112 .301 .232 .286 .344 .274
Carlos Triunfel 626 3.5% 17.9% .093 .289 .243 .284 .336 .270
Casper Wells 405 8.6% 29.1% .172 .286 .219 .300 .391 .300
Leon Landry 571 3.9% 16.5% .116 .285 .245 .280 .361 .274
Justin Smoak 552 10.9% 22.6% .153 .271 .230 .315 .383 .305
Michael Morse 481 5.8% 25.2% .162 .308 .253 .306 .415 .311
Stefen Romero 560 3.8% 18.4% .135 .278 .245 .282 .380 .283
Eric Farris 534 3.9% 13.7% .073 .273 .242 .278 .315 .261
Miguel Olivo 387 3.6% 30.2% .158 .279 .220 .249 .378 .265
Vinnie Catricala 607 6.3% 21.4% .119 .287 .236 .294 .355 .286
Alex Liddi 581 7.1% 31.0% .143 .303 .223 .281 .366 .281
Robert Andino 480 7.3% 21.3% .085 .286 .230 .289 .315 .267
Ronny Paulino 273 5.5% 17.2% .078 .287 .242 .282 .320 .261
Munenori Kawasaki 444 4.3% 14.9% .048 .292 .248 .285 .296 .252
Jesus Sucre 367 3.0% 15.3% .063 .271 .234 .261 .297 .241
Jason Bay 372 11.0% 26.9% .130 .274 .215 .304 .345 .289
Mike Carp 506 7.7% 23.7% .155 .286 .239 .304 .394 .304
Raul Ibanez 435 6.7% 18.2% .162 .261 .238 .292 .400 .296
Eric Thames 564 6.9% 26.6% .141 .300 .233 .295 .374 .290
Julio Morban 429 4.7% 30.5% .118 .300 .220 .259 .338 .256
Francisco Martinez 519 5.4% 25.6% .070 .299 .224 .268 .294 .247
Chone Figgins 367 9.5% 18.0% .065 .281 .231 .306 .296 .268
Carlos Peguero 484 6.4% 40.5% .156 .325 .207 .269 .363 .273
Mike Jacobs 464 8.4% 30.0% .126 .266 .202 .267 .328 .259

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def WAR No.1 Comp
Dustin Ackley 690 4.4 98 6 3.4 Dick McAuliffe
Mike Zunino 598 4.4 99 2 3.3 Todd Zeile
Kyle Seager 663 4.6 103 -1 2.7 Buddy Bell
Jesus Montero 597 4.6 103 -8 2.5 Joe Torre
Brendan Ryan 473 3.2 71 11 2.0 Brian Harris
Brad Miller 666 3.7 84 -4 1.7 Ron Wotus
Franklin Gutierrez 409 4.0 86 6 1.7 Darnell McDonald
Michael Saunders 517 4.2 94 -4 1.4 Scott Lydy
Kendrys Morales 411 5.1 115 0 1.3 Xavier Nady
Nick Franklin 540 3.5 79 -3 1.2 Alex Gonzalez
Carlos Triunfel 626 3.3 76 -2 1.2 Aurelio Rodriguez
Casper Wells 405 4.0 95 5 1.1 Jason Cooper
Leon Landry 571 3.5 81 3 1.1 Tyler Colvin
Justin Smoak 552 4.3 98 0 1.0 Jim Bonnici
Michael Morse 481 4.6 103 -2 0.9 Xavier Nady
Stefen Romero 560 3.7 87 -4 0.9 German Duran
Eric Farris 534 3.3 69 1 0.8 Mark Sheehy
Miguel Olivo 387 3.1 76 -1 0.7 Jim Hegan
Vinnie Catricala 607 3.7 84 -8 0.7 Mark Lewis
Alex Liddi 581 3.5 83 -5 0.7 Delwyn Young
Robert Andino 480 3.2 73 -1 0.5 Edwin Maysonet
Ronny Paulino 273 3.2 72 -2 0.5 Chris Heintz
Munenori Kawasaki 444 3.0 67 -1 0.4 Rey Sanchez
Jesus Sucre 367 2.6 59 0 0.3 Moses Zucker
Jason Bay 372 3.8 85 -2 0.3 Jon Nunnally
Mike Carp 506 4.2 98 -5 0.3 Danny Lewis
Raul Ibanez 435 4.2 95 -8 0.1 Jim Bottomley
Eric Thames 564 3.8 89 -6 0.0 LaVel Freeman
Julio Morban 429 3.0 69 -2 -0.1 Kevin Wiggins
Francisco Martinez 519 2.7 61 -1 -0.2 Danny Ainge
Chone Figgins 367 3.2 73 0 -0.2 Mark McLemore
Carlos Peguero 484 3.2 78 -2 -0.3 Ralph Bryant
Mike Jacobs 464 2.9 69 -2 -0.8 Jody Davis

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player T Age G GS IP SO BB HR H R ER
Felix Hernandez R 27 32 32 228.3 216 58 16 201 82 77
Hisashi Iwakuma R 32 24 18 128.3 101 33 16 127 59 55
Erasmo Ramirez R 23 29 24 144.3 92 38 15 148 72 67
Tom Wilhelmsen R 29 71 0 75.0 83 29 6 60 27 25
Charlie Furbush L 27 56 0 55.0 61 21 5 43 20 19
Danny Hultzen L 23 26 26 116.0 110 83 9 105 61 57
Kevin Millwood R 38 22 22 125.7 80 44 15 133 68 64
James Paxton L 24 22 22 101.7 102 65 11 98 56 52
Shawn Kelley R 29 42 0 44.3 43 17 5 40 19 18
Blake Beavan R 24 31 31 184.3 83 37 24 206 103 96
Josh Kinney R 34 56 0 61.3 50 25 5 57 28 26
Jeremy Bonderman R 30 27 26 159.0 110 58 21 161 89 83
Brandon Maurer R 22 22 21 106.0 68 53 8 108 60 56
George Sherrill L 36 28 0 19.0 19 8 2 18 10 9
Danny Farquhar R 26 52 0 67.7 54 34 6 63 33 31
Lucas Luetge L 26 54 0 58.3 46 27 5 58 30 28
Taijuan Walker R 20 20 20 116.0 91 63 13 119 67 63
Bobby LaFromboise L 27 48 0 60.0 42 29 5 59 31 29
David Pauley R 30 45 3 71.3 40 27 8 78 40 37
Stephen Pryor R 23 51 0 54.7 56 39 7 47 30 28
Carter Capps R 22 58 0 74.7 78 29 11 72 40 37
Anthony Fernandez L 23 26 26 145.7 85 57 19 158 87 81
Oliver Perez L 31 53 0 55.7 48 35 6 53 31 29
Brian Moran L 24 48 0 63.3 53 26 9 63 35 33
Hector Noesi R 26 31 21 133.3 89 51 19 142 80 75
Logan Bawcom R 24 53 0 59.0 54 43 7 56 34 32
Brian Sweeney R 39 23 7 66.3 35 25 11 75 44 41
Andrew Carraway R 26 26 24 131.3 68 43 19 151 83 78
Chance Ruffin R 24 54 0 68.0 50 42 8 69 42 39
D.J. Mitchell R 26 26 22 131.0 72 73 16 145 85 79
Yoervis Medina R 24 37 10 87.0 55 53 14 97 61 57

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Felix Hernandez 228.3 944 22.9% 6.1% .287 3.04 2.99 79 78
Hisashi Iwakuma 128.3 545 18.5% 6.1% .285 3.86 4.03 100 105
Erasmo Ramirez 144.3 619 14.9% 6.1% .285 4.18 4.11 109 107
Tom Wilhelmsen 75.0 314 26.4% 9.2% .278 3.00 3.04 78 79
Charlie Furbush 55.0 229 26.6% 9.2% .273 3.11 3.15 81 82
Danny Hultzen 116.0 536 20.5% 15.5% .294 4.42 4.56 115 119
Kevin Millwood 125.7 554 14.4% 7.9% .286 4.58 4.45 119 116
James Paxton 101.7 468 21.8% 13.9% .307 4.60 4.62 120 120
Shawn Kelley 44.3 190 22.6% 9.0% .282 3.65 3.57 95 93
Blake Beavan 184.3 796 10.4% 4.6% .284 4.69 4.65 122 121
Josh Kinney 61.3 266 18.8% 9.4% .286 3.82 3.85 99 100
Jeremy Bonderman 159.0 696 15.8% 8.3% .281 4.70 4.67 122 122
Brandon Maurer 106.0 479 14.2% 11.1% .292 4.75 4.52 124 118
George Sherrill 19.0 83 22.9% 9.6% .296 4.26 3.57 111 93
Danny Farquhar 67.7 300 18.0% 11.3% .282 4.12 4.29 107 112
Lucas Luetge 58.3 260 17.7% 10.4% .296 4.32 3.97 112 103
Taijuan Walker 116.0 530 17.2% 11.9% .299 4.89 4.85 127 126
Bobby LaFromboise 60.0 268 15.7% 10.8% .287 4.35 4.33 113 113
David Pauley 71.3 319 12.5% 8.5% .294 4.67 4.74 121 123
Stephen Pryor 54.7 250 22.4% 15.6% .274 4.61 4.90 120 128
Carter Capps 74.7 325 24.0% 8.9% .299 4.46 4.21 116 109
Anthony Fernandez 145.7 652 13.0% 8.7% .289 5.00 5.00 130 130
Oliver Perez 55.7 255 18.8% 13.7% .286 4.69 4.66 122 121
Brian Moran 63.3 279 19.0% 9.3% .289 4.69 4.60 122 120
Hector Noesi 133.3 593 15.0% 8.6% .287 5.06 4.85 132 126
Logan Bawcom 59.0 276 19.6% 15.6% .292 4.88 5.20 127 135
Brian Sweeney 66.3 299 11.7% 8.4% .286 5.56 5.51 145 143
Andrew Carraway 131.3 588 11.6% 7.3% .294 5.35 5.11 139 133
Chance Ruffin 68.0 315 15.9% 13.3% .289 5.16 5.18 134 135
D.J. Mitchell 131.0 611 11.8% 11.9% .292 5.43 5.42 141 141
Yoervis Medina 87.0 411 13.4% 12.9% .293 5.90 5.89 153 153

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ WAR No. 1 Comp
Felix Hernandez 228.3 8.52 2.29 0.63 121 4.8 Greg Maddux
Hisashi Iwakuma 128.3 7.08 2.31 1.12 95 1.3 Doyle Alexander
Erasmo Ramirez 144.3 5.74 2.37 0.94 88 1.0 Tim Dillard
Tom Wilhelmsen 75.0 9.96 3.48 0.72 122 0.9 Joaquin Benoit
Charlie Furbush 55.0 9.98 3.44 0.82 118 0.6 Mike Gonzalez
Danny Hultzen 116.0 8.53 6.44 0.70 83 0.5 Neal Cotts
Kevin Millwood 125.7 5.73 3.15 1.07 80 0.3 Rick Sutcliffe
James Paxton 101.7 9.03 5.75 0.97 80 0.2 Randy Johnson
Shawn Kelley 44.3 8.74 3.45 1.02 100 0.2 Steve Andrade
Blake Beavan 184.3 4.05 1.81 1.17 78 0.2 Josh Towers
Josh Kinney 61.3 7.34 3.67 0.73 96 0.1 Heathcliff Slocumb
Jeremy Bonderman 159.0 6.23 3.28 1.19 78 0.1 Al Nipper
Brandon Maurer 106.0 5.77 4.50 0.68 77 0.0 Rick Berg
George Sherrill 19.0 9.00 3.79 0.95 86 -0.1 Paul Gibson
Danny Farquhar 67.7 7.18 4.52 0.80 89 -0.1 Beiker Graterol
Lucas Luetge 58.3 7.10 4.17 0.77 85 -0.2 Jake Benz
Taijuan Walker 116.0 7.06 4.89 1.01 75 -0.2 Andy Ashby
Bobby LaFromboise 60.0 6.30 4.35 0.75 84 -0.3 Pete Cappadona
David Pauley 71.3 5.05 3.41 1.01 78 -0.4 Bryan Corey
Stephen Pryor 54.7 9.21 6.42 1.15 79 -0.4 Lariel Gonzalez
Carter Capps 74.7 9.40 3.49 1.33 82 -0.4 Tom Waddell
Anthony Fernandez 145.7 5.25 3.52 1.17 73 -0.4 Larry Casian
Oliver Perez 55.7 7.76 5.66 0.97 78 -0.5 Kevin Tolar
Brian Moran 63.3 7.54 3.70 1.28 78 -0.5 Randy Harvey
Hector Noesi 133.3 6.01 3.44 1.28 72 -0.6 Rick Heiserman
Logan Bawcom 59.0 8.24 6.56 1.07 75 -0.6 Joe Valentine
Brian Sweeney 66.3 4.75 3.39 1.49 66 -0.8 Michael Riley
Andrew Carraway 131.3 4.66 2.95 1.30 68 -1.0 Andy Ghelfi
Chance Ruffin 68.0 6.62 5.56 1.06 71 -1.0 Mark Wooden
D.J. Mitchell 131.0 4.95 5.02 1.10 67 -1.1 Carlos Paredes
Yoervis Medina 87.0 5.69 5.48 1.45 62 -1.5 Andy Cavazos

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.09 ERA and the NL having a 3.92 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected WAR.


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