2013 ZiPS Projections – Tampa Bay Rays

Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, are being released at FanGraphs this year. Below are the projections for the Tampa Bay Rays. Szymborski can be found on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other 2013 Projections: Angels / Astros / Athletics / Blue Jays / Brewers / Cardinals / Cubs / Diamondbacks / Giants / Mets / Nationals / Phillies / Pirates / Rangers / Reds / Rockies / Royals / Tigers / White Sox.

Batters
In a study from February of 2012, Matt Swartz found that designated hitters, left fielders, and first basemen — in that order — were, on average, (over)paid the most dollars per win on the open market. It’s fitting, perhaps, in light of these findings, that the Tampa Bay — an organization that has distinguished itself for its efficient spending — would be weakest at these positions. The players mostly likely to fill those roles for Tampa Bay are Luke Scott, Sam Fuld, Shelley Duncan, and James Loney. Combined, they’re unlikely to make much more than $5 million this season, depending on the precise terms of Scott’s recent deal.

Regardless of the degree to which it informs our understanding of Evan Longoria‘s actual future, his top comparable, Jim Ray Hart, is of some interest — if for no other reason than the reader has likely (and the author has definitely) never heard of him. Hart, however, was among the league’s best players for a four-year stretch in the 1960s, as this totally embiggenable WAR grid reveals:

wd_all_1967_1964_25_0_1_28_2013

Lest the reader find himself concerned about Hart’s whereabouts today, rest easy: per Wikipedia, he “retired in 2006 to a life of leisure and good health.”

Pitchers
The Rays finished second in the majors last season in what we’ve taken to calling Ball-in-Play Wins (BIP-Wins) — which is to say, wins gained by the suppression of park-adjusted opponent BABIP. So, while the pitching staff posted a 23.2 WAR collectively, they actually produced something closer to 30 wins based on runs allowed (i.e. RA9-Wins, a figure that also consider runs/wins from stranded runners).

Ought one attribute the runs/wins saved to the pitchers themselves — like Jeremy Hellickson, for example, who posted a 1.0 WAR but 4.2 RA9-Wins in 2012 — or to the skills of the individual defenders or to the frequent shifts employed by the Tampa Bay defense as a whole? Whatever the answer to the question, it calls attention to the impediment that remain to our understanding of run prevention and who, precisely, is responsible for it.

Bench/Prospects
ZiPS, which is generally conservative, nevertheless appears optimistic about recent acquisition Wil Myers‘ power. The former Royals prospect, who hit 37 home runs in 2012 between Double- and Triple-A, is projected to hit more homers than any other Ray in 2013 (albeit at a lower rate than Longoria). Shortstop prospect Hak-Ju Lee, meanwhile, is regarded by ZiPS as something close to an average major-league player.

Depth Chart
Here’s a rough depth chart for the Rays, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player (click to embiggen):

Rays Depth

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Credit to MLB Depth Charts for roster information.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Evan Longoria R 27 3B 538 72 122 27 2 24 85 7 3
Ben Zobrist B 32 2B 635 84 140 35 5 18 77 16 6
Desmond Jennings R 26 CF 637 94 143 25 7 13 52 34 5
Yunel Escobar R 30 SS 590 61 135 20 1 9 47 4 2
Wil Myers R 22 RF 616 75 141 21 4 26 74 5 3
Matt Joyce L 28 RF 494 61 105 24 3 17 64 8 4
Sean Rodriguez R 28 2B 406 48 81 18 2 10 42 9 3
Hak-Ju Lee L 22 SS 602 72 133 15 7 4 34 28 13
Robinson Chirinos R 29 C 382 42 82 16 1 8 37 1 3
Rich Thompson L 34 CF 464 55 100 15 5 3 29 27 5
Ryan Roberts R 32 3B 486 53 98 19 1 10 46 12 7
Stephen Vogt L 28 C 445 42 101 21 3 7 44 2 1
James Loney L 29 1B 555 54 132 27 1 9 64 4 3
Reid Brignac L 27 SS 408 40 83 14 2 7 37 3 3
Brandon Guyer R 27 RF 372 50 86 18 3 8 36 12 3
Cole Figueroa L 26 3B 529 60 117 19 3 3 46 8 5
Sam Fuld L 31 LF 300 40 65 11 4 2 18 13 6
Jose Molina R 38 C 222 21 47 9 0 5 22 2 1
Luke Scott L 35 1B 362 41 78 18 1 15 50 2 0
Jose Lobaton B 28 C 277 21 54 12 0 4 27 0 0
Tim Beckham R 23 SS 477 57 103 17 2 7 40 9 2
Chris Gimenez R 30 C 303 32 65 11 0 6 29 0 2
Elliot Johnson B 29 SS 332 35 71 11 2 6 31 15 6
Brandon Allen L 27 RF 460 47 83 17 2 14 50 6 2
Shawn O’Malley B 25 2B 396 43 76 7 4 1 20 16 7
Mike Fontenot L 33 2B 244 22 54 9 1 3 18 2 2
Shelley Duncan R 33 LF 345 37 68 14 0 12 45 1 1
Mikie Mahtook R 23 RF 569 57 127 20 5 7 47 16 9
Brooks Conrad B 33 3B 164 17 29 7 0 5 21 2 0
Jason Bourgeois R 31 RF 356 40 81 9 2 2 23 19 8
Jesus Feliciano L 34 CF 470 41 108 14 1 1 29 6 4
Leslie Anderson L 31 LF 483 43 114 17 0 8 42 1 3
Nick Weglarz L 25 LF 388 41 63 15 0 10 35 2 2
Jeff Salazar L 32 RF 339 33 62 9 1 6 27 10 2
Hideki Matsui L 39 LF 291 28 61 12 0 6 30 0 0

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP BA OBP SLG wOBA
Evan Longoria 538 11.7% 19.7% .223 .289 .263 .355 .486 .353
Ben Zobrist 635 13.1% 17.3% .183 .292 .260 .358 .443 .345
Desmond Jennings 637 8.6% 19.0% .138 .299 .252 .326 .390 .319
Yunel Escobar 590 8.0% 11.7% .092 .278 .256 .321 .348 .294
Wil Myers 616 8.1% 27.9% .191 .316 .253 .317 .444 .327
Matt Joyce 494 11.9% 22.3% .191 .290 .246 .342 .437 .334
Sean Rodriguez 406 7.9% 24.4% .146 .284 .227 .305 .373 .296
Hak-Ju Lee 602 6.8% 21.9% .074 .309 .241 .298 .315 .272
Robinson Chirinos 382 7.9% 19.4% .122 .280 .238 .309 .360 .293
Rich Thompson 464 5.2% 17.7% .081 .286 .236 .291 .317 .273
Ryan Roberts 486 9.9% 20.4% .119 .272 .228 .306 .347 .286
Stephen Vogt 445 5.6% 17.3% .116 .282 .245 .288 .361 .280
James Loney 555 7.2% 12.4% .110 .283 .259 .312 .369 .289
Reid Brignac 408 6.6% 22.5% .104 .274 .222 .277 .326 .262
Brandon Guyer 372 5.1% 18.8% .141 .294 .253 .302 .394 .302
Cole Figueroa 529 8.1% 11.3% .072 .275 .247 .313 .319 .279
Sam Fuld 300 9.3% 12.7% .093 .274 .242 .314 .335 .288
Jose Molina 222 7.2% 23.0% .118 .286 .232 .291 .350 .282
Luke Scott 362 8.6% 22.4% .200 .272 .241 .309 .441 .320
Jose Lobaton 277 10.5% 24.9% .099 .291 .222 .305 .321 .278
Tim Beckham 477 5.9% 23.1% .095 .295 .235 .283 .330 .270
Chris Gimenez 303 8.3% 22.4% .106 .292 .237 .301 .343 .281
Elliot Johnson 332 6.6% 23.8% .111 .301 .237 .292 .348 .279
Brandon Allen 460 10.4% 31.3% .156 .276 .205 .293 .361 .287
Shawn O’Malley 396 7.3% 22.7% .051 .284 .215 .285 .266 .249
Mike Fontenot 244 7.4% 19.7% .091 .297 .244 .305 .335 .276
Shelley Duncan 345 9.9% 23.5% .164 .260 .223 .304 .387 .302
Mikie Mahtook 569 5.1% 22.7% .097 .304 .242 .290 .339 .276
Brooks Conrad 164 8.5% 32.3% .150 .270 .199 .272 .349 .270
Jason Bourgeois 356 5.3% 11.8% .057 .274 .244 .289 .301 .262
Jesus Feliciano 470 4.0% 10.6% .043 .272 .245 .281 .288 .250
Leslie Anderson 483 3.7% 14.1% .090 .277 .250 .286 .340 .270
Nick Weglarz 388 11.3% 35.8% .133 .279 .188 .289 .321 .273
Jeff Salazar 339 8.0% 23.3% .095 .252 .203 .271 .298 .257
Hideki Matsui 291 7.9% 17.5% .114 .261 .231 .289 .345 .275

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def WAR No.1 Comp
Evan Longoria 538 6.4 135 8 5.2 Jim Ray Hart
Ben Zobrist 635 5.9 125 5 4.9 Ray Durham
Desmond Jennings 637 5.1 102 2 3.4 Mike Devereaux
Yunel Escobar 590 4.1 90 4 2.5 Craig Wilson
Wil Myers 616 5.1 112 0 2.3 Danny Tartabull
Matt Joyce 494 5.4 118 -1 2.2 Leon Durham
Sean Rodriguez 406 4.1 91 5 1.8 Chase Lambin
Hak-Ju Lee 602 3.4 74 5 1.7 Royce Clayton
Robinson Chirinos 382 3.8 89 2 1.6 Chad Moeller
Rich Thompson 464 3.7 72 4 1.3 Vince Coleman
Ryan Roberts 486 3.7 85 1 1.2 Scott Brosius
Stephen Vogt 445 3.7 82 -5 0.9 Andy Stewart
James Loney 555 4.2 92 4 0.9 John Mabry
Reid Brignac 408 3.1 70 3 0.9 Keith Johns
Brandon Guyer 372 4.5 95 0 0.8 Alexis Rios
Cole Figueroa 529 3.5 80 -1 0.8 Russ Adams
Sam Fuld 300 3.8 84 6 0.8 Rich Thompson
Jose Molina 222 3.6 80 1 0.8 Paul Richards
Luke Scott 362 4.9 109 -4 0.8 Chris Richard
Jose Lobaton 277 3.4 78 -1 0.7 Alan Ashby
Tim Beckham 477 3.4 73 -4 0.7 Ross Jones
Chris Gimenez 303 3.5 82 -2 0.7 Juan Espino
Elliot Johnson 332 3.7 80 -4 0.5 Chris Woodward
Brandon Allen 460 3.7 84 0 0.3 Kevin Burns
Shawn O’Malley 396 2.7 57 4 0.3 Tommy Hinzo
Mike Fontenot 244 3.6 81 -2 0.3 Marlon Anderson
Shelley Duncan 345 4.1 94 -3 0.2 Carmelo Martinez
Mikie Mahtook 569 3.5 77 1 -0.1 George Hinshaw
Brooks Conrad 164 3.3 74 -3 -0.1 Dave McKay
Jason Bourgeois 356 3.2 68 2 -0.1 Jim Buccheri
Jesus Feliciano 470 2.8 62 0 -0.3 Joe Orsulak
Leslie Anderson 483 3.4 76 0 -0.3 Terry Francona
Nick Weglarz 388 3.0 73 -2 -0.4 John Jensen
Jeff Salazar 339 2.9 61 0 -0.4 Kevin Koslofski
Hideki Matsui 291 3.5 78 -6 -0.6 Brian Jordan

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player T Age G GS IP SO BB HR H R ER
David Price L 27 31 31 207.7 201 63 18 176 75 70
Matt Moore L 24 31 30 170.7 173 71 18 148 73 68
Jeremy Hellickson R 26 29 28 166.7 120 59 20 155 75 70
Alex Cobb R 25 27 27 149.3 110 54 15 151 74 69
Jeff Niemann R 30 20 19 104.3 81 33 13 104 52 49
Jake McGee L 26 67 0 57.3 64 16 6 47 20 19
Fernando Rodney R 36 58 0 53.3 49 21 4 45 19 18
Joel Peralta R 37 62 0 58.3 61 16 7 48 22 21
Chris Archer R 24 28 27 135.3 107 80 14 131 75 70
Fauxto Carmona R 32 18 18 111.0 63 34 15 115 61 57
Kyle Farnsworth R 37 46 0 41.3 38 13 4 36 16 15
Jake Odorizzi R 23 26 26 136.3 97 62 19 137 78 73
Felipe Rivero L 21 23 18 92.7 54 36 11 100 52 49
Jamey Wright R 38 54 0 59.0 41 25 4 58 28 26
Juan Carlos Oviedo R 31 37 0 34.7 30 11 4 32 16 15
Brandon Gomes R 28 56 0 66.0 59 30 7 62 32 30
Josh Lueke R 28 49 0 68.7 50 26 7 70 35 33
Juan Sandoval R 32 61 0 63.3 44 31 6 63 33 31
J.D. Martin R 30 24 16 104.7 55 22 18 120 63 59
Will Inman R 26 45 0 52.0 48 37 6 47 29 27
Frank De Los Santos L 25 46 4 79.3 38 35 8 87 46 43
Alex Colome R 24 22 22 105.7 68 72 12 110 66 62
Cesar Ramos L 29 47 7 74.3 48 34 11 79 45 42
Alex Torres L 25 29 23 109.0 90 91 11 108 68 64
Dane de la Rosa R 30 55 0 65.0 54 45 7 63 39 36
Kirby Yates R 26 52 0 60.7 57 55 7 57 39 36
Adam Liberatore L 26 39 0 63.0 32 36 7 70 41 38
Marquis Fleming R 26 46 0 70.3 59 54 10 68 45 42
Enny Romero L 22 25 24 105.7 74 93 14 107 73 68
Mike Montgomery L 23 26 26 141.3 85 75 23 152 94 88
Matt Buschmann R 29 30 19 120.0 68 62 19 136 82 77
Lance Pendleton R 29 27 19 107.3 61 64 19 120 77 72

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
David Price 207.7 862 23.3% 7.3% .275 3.03 3.24 78 83
Matt Moore 170.7 731 23.7% 9.7% .281 3.59 3.76 92 97
Jeremy Hellickson 166.7 714 16.8% 8.3% .265 3.78 4.28 97 110
Alex Cobb 149.3 653 16.8% 8.3% .293 4.16 4.15 107 107
Jeff Niemann 104.3 450 18.0% 7.3% .285 4.23 4.17 109 107
Jake McGee 57.3 235 27.2% 6.8% .277 2.98 2.96 77 76
Fernando Rodney 53.3 226 21.7% 9.3% .275 3.04 3.53 78 91
Joel Peralta 58.3 239 25.5% 6.7% .266 3.24 3.28 83 85
Chris Archer 135.3 617 17.3% 13.0% .288 4.66 4.83 120 124
Fauxto Carmona 111.0 482 13.1% 7.1% .275 4.62 4.80 119 123
Kyle Farnsworth 41.3 173 22.0% 7.5% .276 3.27 3.53 84 91
Jake Odorizzi 136.3 608 16.0% 10.2% .280 4.82 5.02 124 129
Felipe Rivero 92.7 414 13.0% 8.7% .290 4.76 4.80 123 124
Jamey Wright 59.0 260 15.8% 9.6% .290 3.97 3.81 102 98
Juan Carlos Oviedo 34.7 147 20.4% 7.5% .274 3.89 3.73 100 96
Brandon Gomes 66.0 290 20.3% 10.3% .289 4.09 4.14 105 107
Josh Lueke 68.7 302 16.6% 8.6% .293 4.33 4.27 111 110
Juan Sandoval 63.3 284 15.5% 10.9% .287 4.41 4.36 113 112
J.D. Martin 104.7 456 12.1% 4.8% .287 5.07 5.05 130 130
Will Inman 52.0 240 20.0% 15.4% .281 4.67 5.00 120 129
Frank De Los Santos 79.3 360 10.6% 9.7% .288 4.88 4.85 126 125
Alex Colome 105.7 499 13.6% 14.4% .288 5.28 5.53 136 142
Cesar Ramos 74.3 336 14.3% 10.1% .286 5.09 5.18 131 133
Alex Torres 109.0 526 17.1% 17.3% .297 5.28 5.40 136 139
Dane de la Rosa 65.0 303 17.8% 14.9% .290 4.98 5.05 128 130
Kirby Yates 60.7 294 19.4% 18.7% .294 5.34 5.58 137 144
Adam Liberatore 63.0 295 10.8% 12.2% .293 5.43 5.43 140 140
Marquis Fleming 70.3 333 17.7% 16.2% .283 5.37 5.70 138 147
Enny Romero 105.7 517 14.3% 18.0% .283 5.79 6.28 149 162
Mike Montgomery 141.3 651 13.1% 11.5% .280 5.60 5.77 144 149
Matt Buschmann 120.0 558 12.2% 11.1% .292 5.78 5.72 149 147
Lance Pendleton 107.3 506 12.1% 12.7% .285 6.04 6.19 155 159

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ WAR No. 1 Comp
David Price 207.7 8.71 2.73 0.78 127 5.1 C.C. Sabathia
Matt Moore 170.7 9.12 3.74 0.95 108 3.0 Tony Saunders
Jeremy Hellickson 166.7 6.48 3.19 1.08 102 2.5 Al Nipper
Alex Cobb 149.3 6.63 3.26 0.90 93 1.6 Aaron Harang
Jeff Niemann 104.3 6.99 2.85 1.12 91 1.0 Adam Eaton
Jake McGee 57.3 10.05 2.51 0.94 129 0.9 Dan Plesac
Fernando Rodney 53.3 8.27 3.55 0.68 127 0.8 Ricky Bottalico
Joel Peralta 58.3 9.42 2.47 1.08 119 0.8 Lee Smith
Chris Archer 135.3 7.12 5.32 0.93 83 0.6 Larry Mitchell
Fauxto Carmona 111.0 5.11 2.76 1.22 83 0.5 Walter Plinge
Kyle Farnsworth 41.3 8.28 2.83 0.87 118 0.5 Todd Worrell
Jake Odorizzi 136.3 6.40 4.09 1.25 80 0.3 Mike Morgan
Felipe Rivero 92.7 5.24 3.50 1.07 81 0.3 Rich Rundles
Jamey Wright 59.0 6.25 3.81 0.61 97 0.2 Dave Giusti
Juan Carlos Oviedo 34.7 7.78 2.85 1.04 99 0.2 Bobby Howry
Brandon Gomes 66.0 8.05 4.09 0.95 94 0.2 Johnny Ruffin
Josh Lueke 68.7 6.55 3.41 0.92 89 0.0 Jordan DeJong
Juan Sandoval 63.3 6.26 4.41 0.85 88 -0.1 Marc Wilkins
J.D. Martin 104.7 4.73 1.89 1.55 76 -0.1 Larry Shikles
Will Inman 52.0 8.31 6.40 1.04 83 -0.2 Josh Banks
Frank De Los Santos 79.3 4.31 3.97 0.91 79 -0.3 Scott Rice
Alex Colome 105.7 5.79 6.13 1.02 73 -0.3 Ben Hendrickson
Cesar Ramos 74.3 5.81 4.12 1.33 76 -0.4 Sherman Corbett
Alex Torres 109.0 7.43 7.51 0.91 73 -0.4 Chris Mobley
Dane de la Rosa 65.0 7.48 6.23 0.97 77 -0.5 Ryan Henderson
Kirby Yates 60.7 8.45 8.15 1.04 72 -0.8 Bill Bene
Adam Liberatore 63.0 4.57 5.14 1.00 71 -0.9 Brian Adams
Marquis Fleming 70.3 7.55 6.91 1.28 72 -0.9 Cliff Brantley
Enny Romero 105.7 6.30 7.92 1.19 67 -1.0 Steve Whitaker
Mike Montgomery 141.3 5.41 4.78 1.46 69 -1.0 Felix Oroz
Matt Buschmann 120.0 5.10 4.65 1.43 67 -1.2 Mike Heathcott
Lance Pendleton 107.3 5.12 5.37 1.59 64 -1.4 Michael Johnson

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.09 ERA and the NL having a 3.92 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected WAR.




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Carson Cistulli occasionally publishes spirited ejaculations at The New Enthusiast.

30 Responses to “2013 ZiPS Projections – Tampa Bay Rays”

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  1. Mike says:

    Haha “Faux”to Carmona. Love it

    +10 Vote -1 Vote +1

  2. Well-Beered Englishman says:

    When I was a kid, every pack of baseball cards I opened had Ray Durham in it.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  3. Steve says:

    Rich Thompson’s #1 comp is Vince Coleman. But then Sam Fuld’s is Rich Thompson. Interesting.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  4. TKDC says:

    So if Longoria actually plays a full season he’s projected at 6.5ish WAR

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  5. ttnorm says:

    I saw Jim Ray Hart play. Very good hit tool. Brutal at 3B.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Dan Szymborski says:

      Yeah, remember comps are offensive – I haven’t found much use for defensive comps, the challenge there is simply measuring it with any semblance of accuracy.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Baltar says:

      Note that, although the years 1964-1967 on that chart are cherry-picked for Hart, most of the players above him and many below him are HOF’ers.
      If I were Longoria, I would gladly take that comparison.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  6. Uncle Randy says:

    Rays are really, really good.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  7. Mike Green says:

    It is surprising that Wil Myers has the best offensive comp at this stage of his career. You would think that it would be Longoria. BBRef lists Longoria’s top comps as Bob Horner and Scott Rolen. Rolen is probably the best of the comps, although he wasn’t quite as good a hitter.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  8. Darren says:

    So far I have only seen 2 players with over 10 projected fielding runs in the teams released to date (Gentry & Bourjos). Zips seems to really understate defence, and the Rays would seem to be a team that is going to largely depend on that part of the game. Im going to say that the Rays are likely better than whatever the Zips team projection is.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • jda says:

      Keep in mind that Bourjos’ DRS was in less than 600 PA, too. And Sam Fuld has 6 DRS in 300 PA, so he’s right up there with Bourjos and Gentry.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Darren says:

        Good point. However that makes the point about Zips understating defence that much more prevelant. Gentry and Bourjos are not 600 PA players a year, which would mean that Zips likely will not have any player at over 10 runs / year when reasonable playing time projections are considered. Even the conservative and heavily regressed UZR has the top players in any one season at 15 to 20 runs (DRS higher than that).

        Vote -1 Vote +1

  9. Baltar says:

    For entertainment purposes only, the following shows the number of wins that would be projected for a team using Dan Szymborski’s projection of 45 for an all-replacement level team and the total rounded WAR from the depth chart for each team whose ZiPS have been published so far.
    Note: this calculation is not valid, for reasons Dan has written many times, but it is interesting to me as a very rough indication, and perhaps it will be for some of you.

    AL East

    Blue Jays 90
    Rays 86

    AL Central

    Tigers 92
    White Sox 84
    Royals 83

    AL West

    Angels 96
    Rangers 88
    Athletics 78
    Astros 61

    NL East

    Nationals 92
    Phillies 80
    Mets 64

    NL Central

    Reds 91
    Brewers 80
    Cardinals 76
    Cubs 75
    Pirates 75

    NL West

    Giants 88
    D’backs 81
    Rockies 78

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  10. Big Jgke says:

    Not that has any real-life application, but just by looking at the guys the current Rays are comped to really underscores how much of a no-name roster this is and how well this organization maximizes talent.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  11. Jaker says:

    Are the Rays the best defensive team in the league? Sure looks that way…

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  12. Dan P says:

    Yeah, I’m gonna nag for Vince Belnome zips :) Please and thank you.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  13. Morgan says:

    Please let that be a typo that Matt Moore’s top comp is Tony Saunders!

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • AJ says:

      Outside of Bill James, it seems like all of the projection systems are down on Moore. It’s odd given his age, K ability, numbers in the minors, and how outrageously good he was in the second half, and how elite.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  14. Ivan Grushenko says:

    McGee seems awesome in ZiPS and real life. Why can’t he be converted back to starting? Is he injury prone?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  15. Trev says:

    Yunel Escobar’s #1 comp is Craig Wilson?

    Of the three Craig Wilson’s (including the C/OF from the Pirates) none were full time starters like Escobar. The Pirates’ Craig Wilson had 395 PA in his age 29 season and 1277 PA ages 27-29 while Escobar has 608 PA at age 29 and 1765 PA at ages 27-29. The other two Craig Wilson’s had less than 500 PA for their entire careers.

    Is playing time not a factor? I realize comps are for fun, but I haven’t seen a PA difference like this before.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  16. Mike says:

    Did I read that right? Joel Peralta’s comp is Lee Smith wow.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  17. DMB Drillers says:

    Longoria’s wOBA by year:

    2008 .379
    2009 .377
    2010 .376
    2011 .367
    2012 .378

    Why does ZIPs only see him as .353 wOBA in 2013? I’ll take the over.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  18. DMB Drillers says:

    2008 should have read .370

    Vote -1 Vote +1

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