2014 FAN Projections!

The 2014 FAN Projection ballots are now open!

Before you can project any players, you’ll have to select the team you follow most closely towards the top of the screen. If you really don’t follow a team, just pick one. You’ll only have to do this once.

After you’ve selected a team, there are 9 categories for pitchers and 10 categories for position players. Pick the values in the drop-down boxes closest to what you think the player will do in 2014, hit the submit button and you’re done! If you made a mistake, you can always go back and change your selection at any time.

Please note that everything this year is a rate stat. You’re projecting 2B+3B, HR, SB, and Fielding as a measure of 150 games (basically a full season). The player’s previous stats are shown per 150 games in the projection ballot too. This will make changing playing time projections much easier as you’ll only have to change the games played portion.

That’s really all there is to it. You can filter players by team, or if you go to the player pages, you can project players individually. If you want to see all the players you’ve projected, you can click on the “My Rankings” button which will show you only what you specifically projected a player to do.

Fan Projections will show up on the player pages after there have been 5 ballots submitted.

If you do notice any issues, please let us know.




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David Appelman is the creator of FanGraphs.


45 Responses to “2014 FAN Projections!”

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  1. QuinnM says:

    If I have to pick what I think the player will do in 2013 then I bet I can do a pretty good job.

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  2. Rockshu says:

    I apparently projected Colby Rasmus for an MVP-like 6.6 WAR. I might need to edit that lol

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  3. IZZY2112 says:

    Once again, we are unable to project certain values for K% and BB%. For instance, the options for walk rate make projecting one between 11% and 12% impossible.

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    • Jason B says:

      ……….really? You need decimal point precision for your guesses?

      +12 Vote -1 Vote +1

      • IZZY2112 says:

        If I want to project any walk-rate between 11% and 12%, I cannot.

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        • philosofool says:

          You can start a blog if you want.

          +6 Vote -1 Vote +1

        • deadpool says:

          I don’t think the intent is to pick decimal points. You pick the closest whole percentage to what you think the player will do. If you think he’s between 11.5-12 you pick 12. If you think he’s between 11-11.49, you pick 11. The point of this is to aggregate the scores anyway, so decimal precision doesn’t really matter on individual projections.

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        • AngelsLakersFan says:

          I think the point is that the options go from “9%-11%” to “12%-14%”

          If one is estimating that a player will finish around 11%-12% you are forced to choose an option that includes 9% or 14%, which for some players can feel like a serious under / over perform. Obviously we think too highly of our opinions but I still understand the complaint. In some cases I feel I predicted a lot more bullish than I would have otherwise.

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    • Commanding Ramorda says:

      I think the two options if you’re trying to project a player for 11.5% come out to 10% and 13%. So it’s pretty bad.

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  4. MDL says:

    Somehow my Mike Trout projections came out to 12.4 WAR, including 159 runs. I’m going to assume these will be 100% accurate.

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    • As an Angels fan, I sure hope so.

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    • bjsguess says:

      I didn’t think my predictions for Trout were crazy but I ended up with 11.6 WAR.

      329/420/585 … 152 runs / 119 RBIs / 36 SB’s / 28 HR’s

      The WAR number looks big compared to last year but I’m predicting a much better UZR/150 in 2014. That by itself (14 runs) would make up some of the differences between his actual 2013 and what I think will happen in 2014.

      Honestly, outside of his runs being about 25 too high and his RBI’s being about 10 too high I think it’s pretty reasonable.

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      • I’ll take a look, something might be off.

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        • Actually, they look ok. If you put him at CF the entire season, and you leave his stats pretty much the same, and bump up his fielding, he’s going to end up with around 11 WAR. I just did a projection for him that I thought wasn’t completely out there and ended up with 11.4.

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      • Pitnick says:

        You’re projecting better fielding numbers and more power and just a slight dip in OBP… That sounds like it would result in higher WAR.

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  5. BurleighGrimes says:

    I must be a nerd cuz I’ve been waiting for those to come out. Hooray!

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  6. JohnHavok says:

    I’m confident that DeRosa, Davis and Arencibia will not play for the Jays at all, can the rosters be updated?

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  7. d_i says:

    I’ve noticed in the past that the number of projections next to the fan projections doesn’t change immediately after submission. Do these go through some sort of vetting process for reasonableness or is there just a lag before they are reflected?

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  8. Matty Brown says:

    I have been waiting for this for so long! I go through the teams alphabetically, so of course the very first player I project is the one and only Mike Trout, whose initial estimation of 8.8 WAR somehow seems low…

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  9. Sean C says:

    I don’t feel I can adequately project Andrelton Simmons defense.

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  10. Chris Mitchell says:

    Is there any way to project Tanaka?

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  11. Ruki Motomiya says:

    SBs don’t go high enough for projecting Billy Hamilton.

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  12. japem says:

    I somehow projected Jackie Bradley Jr. for 4.4 WAR…

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  13. skillings24 says:

    The amount of comments that are complaints on this free website is too damn high.

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    • Nathan says:

      That’s true, although the whole “it’s free so nobody can complain about anything” bit is annoying.

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    • Chicago Mark says:

      I don’t know if they’re too high skill. But some of them seem simply childish. But, that’s what we get for participating. It’s free to adults, children and the under-appreciating.

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      • Chicago Mark says:

        That just don’t sound right after reading it. In the end, many should be a little less insulting. It’s ok to debate content. But some people simply say negative stuff about the site, it’s authors and other readers. Ah, too much said as usual. Enjoy the site. Dis-agreement doesn’t have to be negative.

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  14. Daniel says:

    How are the runs scored and RBI calculated for the projections? I assumed it was based on where in the lineup you project a player to hit. But, for example, I have Michael Bourn batting leadoff for Cleveland with a .269/.322/.350 slash line but he is projected in my rankings to score 43 runs. Michael Brantley is projected in my rankings at .270/.321/.382 but with 50 runs scored as a bottom of the order hitter. This seems off.

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    • Yeah, still messing around with the R / RBI a little bit because they were coming in too high yesterday. Think I over corrected the other way this time. They should look much better now.

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  15. Simba says:

    The highest I can go for my defense is 16-20? This is bullshit.

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  16. gabriel says:

    Hey, I’m a commenter dissatisfied with my current free content and toys, and would like improved free toys.

    Namely, it would be great if we could project hitters and pitchers based on their fundamental skills- say, BABIP, K & BB rates, ISO, SB%, etc. It might be interesting how differently the projections would come in. We might actually be more realistic if only dealing with the underlying information. As it is, I’m estimating BABIP, then trying to factor in HRs and K% to come up with a batting average.

    That said, it’s a fun tool right now, and I look forward to the Fan Projections every year.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

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