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2014 ZiPS Projections – Arizona Diamondbacks

After having typically appeared in the entirely venerable pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections were released at FanGraphs last year. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Arizona Diamondbacks. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Cleveland / Detroit / Los Angeles NL / Miami / Minnesota / New York AL / Philadelphia / San Diego / Seattle / St. Louis.

Batters
In the depth-chart graphic below, the author has assigned the entirety of both Gerardo Parra and A.J. Pollock‘s projected WAR to center field. In reality, Parra will likely record starts all over the outfield — an ideal scenario, on account of how Parra is (a) the only one of the the D-backs’ four main outfielders who bats left-handed and also how he’s (b) actually projected to record the highest WAR, both by rate and also in total, of all those same outfielders, including new and powerful acquisition Mark Trumbo.

Generally speaking, there’s not a lot in the way of obvious weakness wherein Arizona’s field players are concerned, just as there’s also not a lot in the way of highest-end talent, either. It’s not surprising to find, following his 2013 season, that Paul Goldschmidt is projected to lead the team offensively. For a number of reasons, probably — including his pretty high BABIP last season and also just how regression works — ZiPS doesn’t foresee the first baseman reaching quite the frenzied heights of his 2013 campaign.

Pitchers
Not unlike their offensive counterparts, the constituent members of the Arizona starting rotation are all, generally speaking, within shouting distance of average. Right-hander Brandon McCarthy falls short of that (1.6) in terms of total projected WAR, although even that lack is due mostly to a conservative innings projection (because of his recent history of injury, one assumes). Of some interest will be the 2014 season of Randall Delgado, which other right-hander recorded nearly a league-average xFIP- (105) in 2013, but whose projections are less optimistic than that.

One could ask reasonable questions about the D-backs’ offseason trade for Addison Reed — which cost the club prospect Matt Davidson — and perhaps receive less in the way of totally reasonable answers. Still, that doesn’t make Reed’s likely contribution to what appears to be an above-average bullpen any less real.

Bench/Prospects
Arizona general manager Kevin Towers has announced that he expects Chris Owings to compete with half-incumbent Didi Gregorius for the starting shortstop job in Arizona. The pair receive almost identical WAR projections on a rate basis here. Much less heralded as a prospect than Owings, but still regarded by ZiPS as capable of producing something like league-average value, is outfielder Ender Inciarte, entering his age-23 season. It is not surprising, among pitching prospects, to find that former seventh-overall selection Archie Bradley receives the best projection. He’s good, is why it isn’t surprising.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the D-backs, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Arizona Depth Chart

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Paul Goldschmidt R 26 1B 668 90 156 34 2 32 113 14 5
Martin Prado R 30 3B 663 76 175 36 3 14 80 6 5
Miguel Montero L 30 C 504 51 110 21 1 14 66 0 0
Gerardo Parra L 27 RF 562 66 138 31 5 10 50 11 6
Aaron Hill R 32 2B 514 61 128 28 3 14 63 7 5
A.J. Pollock R 26 CF 572 70 141 31 5 8 53 18 5
Chris Owings R 22 SS 639 73 165 30 6 11 67 16 6
Mark Trumbo R 28 LF 632 84 157 32 3 35 112 6 4
Didi Gregorius L 24 SS 504 55 122 21 7 8 48 3 6
Ender Inciarte L 23 CF 563 60 142 22 6 4 44 37 10
Cliff Pennington B 30 SS 432 45 98 20 3 6 37 10 4
Cody Ross R 33 LF 440 51 103 22 1 14 58 3 2
Tyler Bortnick R 26 2B 480 54 104 21 5 4 44 21 5
Nick Ahmed R 24 SS 597 62 129 25 5 6 49 23 10
Raywilly Gomez B 24 C 405 36 93 18 0 1 33 1 1
Tony Campana L 28 CF 423 51 97 11 4 1 22 36 8
Tuffy Gosewisch R 30 C 359 29 77 20 1 6 37 1 3
Eric Chavez L 36 3B 234 23 55 10 1 8 36 0 0
Bobby Wilson R 31 C 214 23 44 11 0 4 21 0 1
Kila Ka’aihue L 30 1B 463 51 95 20 1 18 62 1 1
Danny Dorn L 29 RF 502 51 108 24 2 18 61 4 1
Andy Marte R 30 3B 204 23 45 8 1 6 24 0 1
Jordan Parraz R 29 RF 369 41 80 16 2 9 37 5 2
Juan Rivera R 35 LF 387 38 93 17 1 9 52 2 2
Nick Evans R 28 1B 426 48 95 20 1 13 50 1 2
Jake Fox R 31 LF 187 18 39 11 1 5 26 0 0
Matt Tuiasosopo R 28 LF 372 43 72 13 1 9 46 2 1
Brent Clevlen R 30 RF 245 24 50 10 2 6 26 3 1
Alfredo Marte R 25 RF 442 45 101 23 2 9 49 3 2
Blake Lalli L 31 C 387 39 87 16 0 8 40 0 1
Keon Broxton R 24 CF 491 46 95 15 3 9 41 12 7
Brandon Jacobs R 23 LF 523 50 110 26 1 13 53 11 9
Sawyer Carroll L 28 1B 332 33 66 12 3 6 36 4 3
Mike Jacobs L 33 1B 471 45 95 18 1 15 54 1 1

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP BA OBP SLG wOBA
Paul Goldschmidt 668 12.4% 24.6% .233 .322 .271 .364 .504 .367
Martin Prado 663 6.5% 9.2% .138 .298 .287 .333 .425 .328
Miguel Montero 504 10.5% 22.0% .148 .301 .250 .337 .398 .319
Gerardo Parra 562 7.3% 16.9% .139 .314 .271 .327 .410 .313
Aaron Hill 514 7.0% 13.0% .162 .292 .274 .331 .436 .331
A.J. Pollock 572 6.1% 16.8% .123 .311 .268 .315 .391 .311
Chris Owings 639 3.4% 21.4% .122 .332 .270 .298 .392 .302
Mark Trumbo 632 6.8% 23.6% .245 .303 .269 .320 .514 .354
Didi Gregorius 504 6.3% 16.7% .128 .307 .265 .317 .393 .302
Ender Inciarte 563 4.8% 12.3% .088 .305 .272 .311 .360 .300
Cliff Pennington 432 7.4% 18.1% .112 .297 .250 .307 .362 .292
Cody Ross 440 7.7% 19.1% .167 .294 .260 .321 .427 .324
Tyler Bortnick 480 8.1% 18.8% .100 .299 .244 .319 .344 .300
Nick Ahmed 597 5.5% 19.6% .096 .285 .234 .280 .330 .270
Raywilly Gomez 405 7.7% 12.8% .058 .290 .253 .313 .311 .278
Tony Campana 423 5.9% 23.4% .056 .330 .249 .295 .305 .276
Tuffy Gosewisch 359 3.9% 19.5% .119 .270 .229 .266 .348 .266
Eric Chavez 234 7.3% 18.8% .170 .287 .259 .312 .429 .314
Bobby Wilson 214 7.9% 14.5% .122 .258 .234 .298 .356 .281
Kila Ka’aihue 463 10.6% 24.0% .187 .273 .233 .317 .420 .323
Danny Dorn 502 7.0% 25.9% .179 .286 .235 .293 .414 .309
Andy Marte 204 6.4% 19.6% .149 .271 .239 .289 .388 .296
Jordan Parraz 369 6.0% 21.4% .139 .282 .236 .293 .375 .296
Juan Rivera 387 4.9% 11.4% .128 .270 .258 .300 .386 .299
Nick Evans 426 7.5% 25.4% .156 .301 .244 .300 .400 .305
Jake Fox 187 4.8% 21.9% .163 .268 .227 .283 .390 .297
Matt Tuiasosopo 372 9.7% 28.8% .128 .293 .219 .302 .347 .291
Brent Clevlen 245 6.5% 31.8% .142 .306 .221 .273 .363 .281
Alfredo Marte 442 4.5% 21.9% .130 .297 .244 .287 .374 .291
Blake Lalli 387 5.4% 21.2% .111 .288 .240 .282 .351 .277
Keon Broxton 491 6.3% 36.0% .106 .320 .210 .262 .316 .256
Brandon Jacobs 523 5.5% 31.5% .139 .315 .229 .280 .368 .283
Sawyer Carroll 332 8.4% 25.0% .120 .282 .219 .287 .339 .276
Mike Jacobs 471 7.0% 27.8% .150 .275 .219 .274 .369 .282

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Paul Goldschmidt 668 6.9 133 2 3.9 Derrek Lee
Martin Prado 663 5.3 105 2 3.2 Rich Rollins
Miguel Montero 504 4.8 99 1 3.0 Ed Bailey
Gerardo Parra 562 4.9 99 14 2.5 Troy O’Leary
Aaron Hill 514 5.3 107 0 2.4 Rich Aurilia
A.J. Pollock 572 4.7 91 4 2.3 Marlon Byrd
Chris Owings 639 4.4 86 1 2.2 Zoilo Versalles
Mark Trumbo 632 6.0 122 -10 2.0 Bubba Trammell
Didi Gregorius 504 4.4 92 3 2.0 Russ Adams
Ender Inciarte 563 4.5 82 5 1.9 Endy Chavez
Cliff Pennington 432 4.1 81 3 1.5 Leo Durocher
Cody Ross 440 5.0 101 1 1.2 Shane Spencer
Tyler Bortnick 480 4.2 81 0 1.1 Carlos Febles
Nick Ahmed 597 3.3 65 7 1.1 Robert Andino
Raywilly Gomez 405 3.5 71 0 0.9 Tom Wieghaus
Tony Campana 423 3.8 64 5 0.8 Alex Cole
Tuffy Gosewisch 359 3.1 66 3 0.7 Brandon Marsters
Eric Chavez 234 4.9 99 -1 0.7 Richie Hebner
Bobby Wilson 214 3.6 77 -1 0.6 Chad Moeller
Kila Ka’aihue 463 4.7 99 -1 0.5 Bob Tumpane
Danny Dorn 502 4.3 90 -2 0.3 Peter Camelo
Andy Marte 204 3.9 82 -2 0.1 Tom Nevers
Jordan Parraz 369 3.9 80 3 0.0 Lou List
Juan Rivera 387 4.2 85 -1 0.0 Chad Mottola
Nick Evans 426 4.2 89 0 0.0 Justin Huber
Jake Fox 187 3.9 81 0 -0.1 Darrell Whitmore
Matt Tuiasosopo 372 3.6 76 0 -0.2 Mike Richardson
Brent Clevlen 245 3.5 71 1 -0.2 Mike Berger
Alfredo Marte 442 3.8 78 0 -0.3 Julio Zuleta
Blake Lalli 387 3.5 71 -11 -0.4 Jamie Quirk
Keon Broxton 491 2.8 57 3 -0.4 Willie Magallanes
Brandon Jacobs 523 3.5 75 0 -0.6 Matt Esquivel
Sawyer Carroll 332 3.3 70 0 -0.8 Nathan Panther
Mike Jacobs 471 3.5 73 0 -1.1 Jody Davis

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player T Age G GS IP SO BB HR H R ER
Patrick Corbin L 24 33 31 201.7 167 52 19 192 85 79
Wade Miley L 27 31 30 186.7 136 53 18 187 85 79
Trevor Cahill R 26 30 30 178.3 131 69 17 175 86 80
Brandon McCarthy R 30 22 22 137.7 89 24 14 148 66 62
Archie Bradley R 21 24 24 130.0 95 58 12 130 66 62
Addison Reed R 25 63 0 70.0 75 19 6 61 27 25
Josh Collmenter R 28 54 0 78.0 72 22 8 70 31 29
David Hernandez R 29 70 0 68.0 79 26 7 55 27 25
Brad Ziegler R 34 69 0 61.3 41 19 4 57 24 22
J.J. Putz R 37 47 2 42.0 45 13 4 35 16 15
Andrew Chafin L 24 27 24 133.0 90 67 13 138 74 69
Daniel Hudson R 27 8 8 48.3 36 12 6 50 25 23
Will Harris R 29 60 0 60.7 60 23 6 56 27 25
Matt Reynolds L 29 53 0 42.7 40 12 4 40 18 17
Randall Delgado R 24 29 28 153.0 114 57 25 160 89 83
Joe Thatcher L 32 54 0 30.7 29 10 3 29 14 13
Jake Barrett R 22 55 0 53.7 43 15 6 53 26 24
Tony Sipp L 30 64 0 51.3 51 23 7 46 25 23
Marcos Mateo R 30 30 0 34.7 28 16 3 34 17 16
Joe Paterson L 28 55 0 47.0 37 18 5 47 24 22
Charles Brewer R 26 23 20 120.7 77 39 18 134 72 67
Chase Anderson R 26 20 14 77.7 53 28 11 84 46 43
Matt Langwell R 28 50 0 68.0 50 34 5 68 34 32
Matt Stites R 24 47 0 48.0 39 11 7 49 25 23
Zeke Spruill R 24 26 23 130.3 64 52 15 149 78 73
Bo Schultz R 28 32 8 63.3 35 29 7 69 37 35
David Pauley R 31 23 2 41.3 23 14 5 46 25 23
Jess Todd R 28 44 0 59.3 44 29 7 61 33 31
Eury de la Rosa L 24 61 0 63.3 53 29 9 63 35 33
Ryan Rowland-Smith L 31 30 7 67.0 45 34 9 72 42 39
Alex Sanabia R 25 14 14 72.0 39 24 13 85 47 44
Brett Lorin R 27 30 9 77.0 43 30 12 88 50 47
Adam Russell R 31 43 0 50.7 34 39 5 53 32 30
Garrett Mock R 31 34 7 61.7 42 37 10 68 42 39
Warner Madrigal R 30 45 0 57.3 47 32 9 59 36 34
Nelson Figueroa R 40 9 6 40.0 16 21 8 51 33 31
AJ Schugel R 25 23 20 98.3 59 55 16 113 71 66
Steve Garrison L 27 33 11 71.7 35 24 17 91 57 53

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Patrick Corbin 201.7 849 19.7% 6.1% .287 3.53 3.61 89 91
Wade Miley 186.7 800 17.0% 6.6% .287 3.81 3.85 96 97
Trevor Cahill 178.3 779 16.8% 8.9% .285 4.04 4.21 102 106
Brandon McCarthy 137.7 585 15.2% 4.1% .296 4.05 3.78 102 95
Archie Bradley 130.0 578 16.4% 10.0% .292 4.29 4.40 108 111
Addison Reed 70.0 290 25.9% 6.6% .294 3.21 2.99 81 76
Josh Collmenter 78.0 326 22.1% 6.7% .279 3.35 3.42 85 86
David Hernandez 68.0 285 27.7% 9.1% .284 3.31 3.42 84 86
Brad Ziegler 61.3 260 15.8% 7.3% .273 3.23 3.51 82 89
J.J. Putz 42.0 174 25.9% 7.5% .279 3.21 3.19 81 80
Andrew Chafin 133.0 604 14.9% 11.1% .294 4.67 4.77 118 120
Daniel Hudson 48.3 207 17.4% 5.8% .290 4.28 4.10 108 103
Will Harris 60.7 261 23.0% 8.8% .296 3.71 3.71 94 94
Matt Reynolds 42.7 180 22.2% 6.7% .290 3.59 3.14 91 79
Randall Delgado 153.0 676 16.9% 8.4% .284 4.88 4.96 123 125
Joe Thatcher 30.7 131 22.1% 7.6% .295 3.82 3.52 96 89
Jake Barrett 53.7 229 18.8% 6.5% .292 4.02 4.02 101 101
Tony Sipp 51.3 223 22.9% 10.3% .279 4.03 4.30 102 108
Marcos Mateo 34.7 154 18.2% 10.4% .295 4.15 4.23 105 107
Joe Paterson 47.0 206 18.0% 8.7% .298 4.21 4.31 106 109
Charles Brewer 120.7 535 14.4% 7.3% .295 5.00 5.00 126 126
Chase Anderson 77.7 345 15.4% 8.1% .294 4.98 4.92 126 124
Matt Langwell 68.0 306 16.3% 11.1% .297 4.24 4.33 107 109
Matt Stites 48.0 204 19.1% 5.4% .292 4.31 4.25 109 107
Zeke Spruill 130.3 592 10.8% 8.8% .297 5.04 5.06 127 128
Bo Schultz 63.3 288 12.2% 10.1% .293 4.97 5.01 125 127
David Pauley 41.3 184 12.5% 7.6% .295 5.01 4.79 126 121
Jess Todd 59.3 268 16.4% 10.8% .294 4.70 4.78 119 121
Eury de la Rosa 63.3 282 18.8% 10.3% .287 4.69 4.76 118 120
Ryan Rowland-Smith 67.0 307 14.7% 11.1% .293 5.24 5.27 132 133
Alex Sanabia 72.0 325 12.0% 7.4% .294 5.50 5.51 139 139
Brett Lorin 77.0 349 12.3% 8.6% .295 5.49 5.44 139 137
Adam Russell 50.7 244 13.9% 16.0% .296 5.33 5.53 135 140
Garrett Mock 61.7 290 14.5% 12.8% .294 5.69 5.86 144 148
Warner Madrigal 57.3 263 17.9% 12.2% .293 5.34 5.45 135 138
Nelson Figueroa 40.0 192 8.3% 10.9% .299 6.97 6.77 176 171
AJ Schugel 98.3 463 12.7% 11.9% .298 6.04 5.97 152 151
Steve Garrison 71.7 330 10.6% 7.3% .297 6.66 6.44 168 163

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Patrick Corbin 201.7 7.45 2.32 0.85 111 3.5 Tom Glavine
Wade Miley 186.7 6.56 2.55 0.87 103 2.7 Mark Thurmond
Trevor Cahill 178.3 6.61 3.48 0.86 97 2.1 Jim Beattie
Brandon McCarthy 137.7 5.82 1.57 0.92 96 1.6 Ron Reed
Archie Bradley 130.0 6.58 4.02 0.83 91 1.1 Brian Holman
Addison Reed 70.0 9.64 2.44 0.77 122 0.8 Robb Nen
Josh Collmenter 78.0 8.31 2.54 0.92 117 0.8 Geoff Geary
David Hernandez 68.0 10.46 3.44 0.93 118 0.7 Kyle Farnsworth
Brad Ziegler 61.3 6.02 2.79 0.59 121 0.7 Tom Ferrick
J.J. Putz 42.0 9.64 2.79 0.86 122 0.6 Lee Smith
Andrew Chafin 133.0 6.09 4.53 0.88 84 0.5 Jimmy Anderson
Daniel Hudson 48.3 6.71 2.24 1.12 91 0.4 Mark Knudson
Will Harris 60.7 8.90 3.41 0.89 105 0.3 Steve Andrade
Matt Reynolds 42.7 8.43 2.53 0.84 109 0.3 Bobby Seay
Randall Delgado 153.0 6.71 3.35 1.47 80 0.2 Roy Smith
Joe Thatcher 30.7 8.50 2.93 0.88 102 0.1 Lance Painter
Jake Barrett 53.7 7.21 2.51 1.01 97 0.1 Dan Giese
Tony Sipp 51.3 8.95 4.04 1.23 97 0.1 Greg McCarthy
Marcos Mateo 34.7 7.26 4.15 0.78 94 0.0 Gregg Olson
Joe Paterson 47.0 7.09 3.45 0.96 93 0.0 Matt Dunbar
Charles Brewer 120.7 5.74 2.91 1.34 78 0.0 Bobby Chouinard
Chase Anderson 77.7 6.14 3.24 1.27 78 0.0 Steffen Majer
Matt Langwell 68.0 6.62 4.50 0.66 92 -0.1 Mike Bumstead
Matt Stites 48.0 7.31 2.06 1.31 91 -0.1 Kevin Crafton
Zeke Spruill 130.3 4.42 3.59 1.04 78 -0.1 Jake Dittler
Bo Schultz 63.3 4.98 4.12 1.00 79 -0.2 Marty McLeary
David Pauley 41.3 5.01 3.05 1.09 78 -0.3 Todd Williams
Jess Todd 59.3 6.68 4.40 1.06 83 -0.4 Ryan Baker
Eury de la Rosa 63.3 7.54 4.12 1.28 83 -0.4 Kevin Foster
Ryan Rowland-Smith 67.0 6.04 4.57 1.21 75 -0.4 Dan Smith
Alex Sanabia 72.0 4.88 3.00 1.63 71 -0.4 Brandon Emanuel
Brett Lorin 77.0 5.03 3.51 1.40 71 -0.7 Kevin Vent
Adam Russell 50.7 6.04 6.92 0.89 73 -0.7 Jerry Johnson
Garrett Mock 61.7 6.13 5.40 1.46 69 -0.8 Mike Sullivan
Warner Madrigal 57.3 7.38 5.03 1.41 73 -0.8 Jim Dedrick
Nelson Figueroa 40.0 3.60 4.73 1.80 56 -1.0 Michael Riley
AJ Schugel 98.3 5.40 5.04 1.46 65 -1.3 Nick Skuse
Steve Garrison 71.7 4.39 3.01 2.13 59 -1.6 Tommy Phelps

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.04 ERA and the NL having a 3.81 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.