2014 ZiPS Projections – Baltimore Orioles

After having typically appeared in the entirely venerable pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections were released at FanGraphs last year. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Baltimore Orioles. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Atlanta / Boston / Cleveland / Philadelphia / St. Louis.

Batters
Whether by design or not, Baltimore appears to be doing a bit of work with the stars-and-scrubs model of roster construction at the moment. Chris Davis, J.J. Hardy, Adam Jones, Manny Machado, Matt Wieters: these are the names of five Oriole position players who are projected to record something better than three wins in 2014. Meanwhile, no other batter both (a) presently employed by Baltimore and also (b) expected to begin the season as a starter — no other such player is projected by ZiPS to produce anything better than even one win.

Provided the club is still looking to add talent, this actually isn’t an entirely unenviable state of affairs. Where it might be difficult to upgrade a roster full entirely of average players, there are very clear means by which to improve this roster. Like at DH, for example. Or second base, for other example. Or left field. Or even right field, where starter Nick Markakis has managed just three wins over the last three seasons.

Pitchers
Conveniently for the narrative created by the author above, the Baltimore starting rotation is constructed in almost the exact opposite way as its field players. Where there’s a considerable gap in talent between the best and worst of the latter, the former is — according to ZiPS, at least — composed of pitchers likely to produce similar outcomes (if by different means). Here, from best to worst, are the projected ERA minuses (“ERA-s,” plural?) of the pitchers most likely to begin the season in the O’s rotation: 99, 100, 100, 103, 104. That, in the event that the reader is unacquainted with arithmetic, is only a five-point difference between starter No. 1 and No. 5. Not a bad thing, that, but indicative of a club lacking in high-end starters.

Insofar as it won’t feature Jim Johnson as closer, the Baltimore relief corps will have changed entering 2014. Insofar as Johnson-clone Ryan Webb — signed for two years and $4.5 million after being non-tendered by Miami — insofar as Webb will pitch for Baltimore, the relief corps will actually remain largely unchanged. Generally average, is what that would appear to mean.

Bench/Prospects
One will note the author’s careful wording in the Batters section above regarding those field players who are projected by ZiPS to produce less than a win in 2014. The wording is necessary, on account of there are actually two players in the organization, Michael Ohlman and Jonathan Schoop, projected to approach league-average baseball value in 2014. The former is a catcher/corner-type; the latter, an infielder who’s split his minor-league career between second and short. Neither appears likely to begin the season, however, with a substantial role at the major-league level. Among pitchers, one finds celebrated prospect Dylan Bundy‘s name among those projected here. He’s expected to return at some point in the middle of the season following Tommy John surgery.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Orioles, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Baltimore Depth

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Manny Machado R 21 3B 684 84 173 43 5 19 80 8 6
Matt Wieters B 28 C 573 62 129 28 0 21 80 2 0
J.J. Hardy R 31 SS 612 70 150 26 1 22 72 1 1
Adam Jones R 28 CF 662 88 172 32 2 28 92 13 5
Chris Davis L 28 1B 612 83 145 27 1 41 107 3 3
Michael Ohlman R 23 C 388 42 92 20 2 8 39 4 0
Jonathan Schoop R 22 2B 471 55 107 19 1 15 51 3 4
Michael Morse R 32 RF 427 52 100 19 0 20 57 0 1
Nate McLouth L 32 LF 482 57 103 21 3 11 35 17 4
Ryan Flaherty L 27 2B 391 39 84 16 2 13 47 3 2
Danny Valencia R 29 3B 513 55 123 29 2 16 68 2 4
Nick Markakis L 30 RF 639 72 159 29 2 12 62 5 2
Cord Phelps B 27 2B 475 51 104 21 3 10 50 5 4
Jason Pridie L 30 CF 368 36 80 13 2 10 35 6 2
Lew Ford R 37 CF 198 22 45 12 1 7 24 2 1
Steve Clevenger L 28 C 298 27 70 14 1 4 27 0 1
Luis Exposito R 27 C 319 30 67 17 0 7 31 0 1
Jemile Weeks B 27 2B 592 67 129 20 7 4 38 17 6
Chris Snyder R 33 C 260 26 50 8 0 9 33 0 1
Steve Pearce R 31 DH 223 23 47 10 0 7 27 2 1
Trayvon Robinson B 26 CF 478 50 95 17 2 13 47 15 6
Brian Roberts B 36 2B 214 21 48 9 1 4 25 3 1
Alexi Casilla B 29 2B 243 30 54 12 2 1 21 13 2
Conor Jackson R 32 RF 214 21 47 10 0 4 19 2 1
Henry Urrutia L 27 RF 428 45 114 17 2 9 41 1 1
Nolan Reimold R 30 DH 257 29 54 8 1 10 28 3 1
Taylor Teagarden R 30 C 143 11 25 4 0 4 14 0 0
Wilson Betemit B 32 3B 253 26 56 12 1 7 27 1 1
Glynn Davis R 22 CF 496 43 106 16 2 1 28 22 12
Chris Dickerson L 32 DH 282 32 55 12 1 6 23 10 2
Francisco Peguero R 26 RF 454 51 111 15 4 7 47 8 3
Brandon Wood R 29 SS 313 27 61 12 1 6 28 1 0
Christian Walker R 23 1B 486 48 122 23 0 9 45 3 4
Chih-Hsien Chiang L 26 RF 531 50 121 29 2 10 52 2 2
Brenden Webb L 24 RF 452 39 72 15 2 8 33 9 6

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP BA OBP SLG wOBA
Manny Machado 684 5.4% 16.4% .173 .304 .272 .314 .446 .327
Matt Wieters 573 8.6% 18.3% .177 .273 .250 .314 .427 .319
J.J. Hardy 612 5.6% 13.9% .165 .275 .263 .304 .428 .315
Adam Jones 662 4.2% 19.3% .194 .308 .277 .317 .471 .342
Chris Davis 612 9.0% 30.9% .279 .326 .267 .340 .546 .370
Michael Ohlman 388 8.2% 25.3% .137 .340 .262 .327 .399 .324
Jonathan Schoop 471 5.9% 20.8% .153 .286 .248 .301 .400 .306
Michael Morse 427 5.9% 24.6% .201 .295 .254 .307 .454 .328
Nate McLouth 482 9.1% 16.6% .141 .273 .242 .319 .383 .310
Ryan Flaherty 391 6.1% 24.3% .164 .281 .234 .288 .398 .296
Danny Valencia 513 4.9% 18.3% .167 .283 .254 .288 .421 .307
Nick Markakis 639 8.1% 11.0% .120 .293 .276 .336 .395 .320
Cord Phelps 475 8.2% 20.2% .133 .288 .242 .307 .374 .299
Jason Pridie 368 6.0% 25.3% .137 .292 .234 .281 .371 .286
Lew Ford 198 5.6% 18.7% .189 .268 .243 .288 .432 .314
Steve Clevenger 298 6.7% 15.1% .101 .288 .254 .302 .355 .288
Luis Exposito 319 6.0% 22.9% .128 .274 .226 .273 .355 .276
Jemile Weeks 592 8.4% 16.6% .087 .291 .244 .313 .331 .289
Chris Snyder 260 10.0% 27.3% .152 .270 .217 .297 .370 .290
Steve Pearce 223 10.3% 21.1% .161 .284 .244 .333 .404 .320
Trayvon Robinson 478 7.9% 33.3% .138 .312 .219 .283 .357 .283
Brian Roberts 214 7.5% 15.9% .118 .277 .246 .300 .364 .294
Alexi Casilla 243 6.6% 14.4% .087 .285 .247 .297 .333 .283
Conor Jackson 214 8.4% 14.5% .114 .270 .244 .313 .358 .297
Henry Urrutia 428 4.9% 18.0% .118 .327 .281 .315 .399 .314
Nolan Reimold 257 7.8% 24.1% .172 .270 .233 .296 .405 .306
Taylor Teagarden 143 6.3% 38.5% .121 .288 .189 .246 .311 .248
Wilson Betemit 253 8.3% 28.5% .152 .320 .243 .304 .396 .305
Glynn Davis 496 6.9% 23.8% .051 .312 .233 .290 .284 .259
Chris Dickerson 282 8.9% 28.7% .127 .293 .218 .292 .345 .289
Francisco Peguero 454 2.9% 20.3% .101 .307 .255 .278 .356 .277
Brandon Wood 313 4.8% 27.2% .109 .268 .208 .247 .317 .247
Christian Walker 486 4.7% 18.1% .110 .314 .269 .311 .380 .303
Chih-Hsien Chiang 531 3.8% 21.5% .125 .291 .241 .272 .366 .277
Brenden Webb 452 10.2% 39.8% .109 .305 .182 .274 .290 .256

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Manny Machado 684 5.1 104 14 4.5 Jose Lopez
Matt Wieters 573 4.9 100 6 3.8 Todd Hundley
J.J. Hardy 612 4.8 97 8 3.4 David Bell
Adam Jones 662 5.6 111 -5 3.3 Jacque Jones
Chris Davis 612 6.8 136 -2 3.2 Mo Vaughn
Michael Ohlman 388 4.9 97 -6 1.5 Joe Torre
Jonathan Schoop 471 4.2 89 1 1.2 Casey Webster
Michael Morse 427 5.0 104 -9 1.1 Dan Ford
Nate McLouth 482 4.6 90 3 1.0 Trenidad Hubbard
Ryan Flaherty 391 4.0 85 2 0.9 Dave Baker
Danny Valencia 513 4.3 90 -3 0.9 Juan Uribe
Nick Markakis 639 5.0 99 -4 0.8 Mule Haas
Cord Phelps 475 4.0 85 -1 0.8 Chris Demetral
Jason Pridie 368 3.7 76 3 0.7 Jalal Leach
Lew Ford 198 4.4 93 -3 0.6 Brian Jordan
Steve Clevenger 298 3.8 79 -4 0.4 Cody Mckay
Luis Exposito 319 3.3 69 -1 0.4 Alvin Colina
Jemile Weeks 592 3.8 76 -3 0.4 Nelson Liriano
Chris Snyder 260 3.7 81 -4 0.4 Steve Yeager
Steve Pearce 223 4.8 100 0 0.3 Bobby Kielty
Trayvon Robinson 478 3.6 73 -1 0.2 Jed Hansen
Brian Roberts 214 4.0 80 -2 0.1 Rene Gonzales
Alexi Casilla 243 4.0 72 -2 0.1 Steve Hecht
Conor Jackson 214 4.0 83 0 0.0 Chris Pritchett
Henry Urrutia 428 4.7 93 -5 0.0 Don Mueller
Nolan Reimold 257 4.3 89 0 -0.1 Jay Gainer
Taylor Teagarden 143 2.6 51 -2 -0.2 Jayhawk Owens
Wilson Betemit 253 4.3 89 -8 -0.2 Tyler Houston
Glynn Davis 496 2.9 58 4 -0.3 Deron McCue
Chris Dickerson 282 3.7 73 0 -0.4 Terrell Lowery
Francisco Peguero 454 3.6 71 3 -0.4 Alexis Rios
Brandon Wood 313 2.7 52 0 -0.5 Lou Benbow
Christian Walker 486 4.2 87 -2 -0.5 Billy Butler
Chih-Hsien Chiang 531 3.5 72 1 -0.8 Greg Monda
Brenden Webb 452 2.6 54 6 -0.9 Jeremy Harts

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player T Age G GS IP SO BB HR H R ER
Chris Tillman R 26 32 32 187.0 167 66 27 176 92 86
Wei-Yin Chen L 28 27 27 160.0 129 46 21 161 79 74
Bud Norris R 29 30 29 173.3 158 64 22 172 89 83
Miguel Gonzalez R 30 29 24 150.7 117 49 20 147 75 70
Kevin Gausman R 23 27 27 147.3 129 36 18 151 75 70
Mike Wright R 24 25 25 137.0 93 36 17 148 73 68
Scott Feldman R 31 26 22 128.7 93 38 18 132 68 64
Jason Hammel R 31 25 22 132.7 100 48 18 138 73 68
Darren O’Day R 31 66 0 59.3 62 15 7 51 24 22
Dylan Bundy R 21 13 13 78.0 59 33 10 81 43 40
Zach Britton L 26 26 25 133.3 93 61 17 145 78 73
Eduardo Rodriguez L 21 23 23 120.3 76 49 15 132 71 66
Brian Matusz L 27 69 0 59.0 58 21 6 54 26 24
Tommy Hunter R 27 70 0 81.0 69 17 12 79 39 36
Francisco Rodriguez R 32 62 0 58.7 61 23 7 53 27 25
Troy Patton L 28 51 0 58.7 47 16 7 58 28 26
T.J. McFarland L 25 31 14 109.7 69 45 13 122 65 61
Ryan Webb R 28 64 0 69.0 46 24 7 71 34 32
Kelvin De La Cruz L 25 53 0 68.3 63 37 7 64 34 32
Zech Zinicola R 29 36 0 45.7 35 16 5 47 24 22
Tim Bascom R 29 25 13 88.3 55 46 10 96 55 51
Oliver Drake R 27 32 0 42.7 34 18 5 42 22 21
Tsuyoshi Wada L 33 17 17 93.3 70 41 16 103 60 56
Edgmer Escalona R 27 47 0 57.3 48 20 9 57 31 29
Eddie Gamboa R 29 24 18 103.7 61 43 15 117 66 62
Brad Brach R 28 71 0 74.0 71 31 12 73 41 38
Tim Berry L 23 26 25 132.3 76 50 19 155 86 80
Daniel Schlereth L 28 24 0 24.0 22 18 3 23 15 14
Jon Rauch R 35 41 0 36.3 28 12 7 39 22 21
Steve Johnson R 26 27 18 100.3 84 57 17 105 66 62
Nick Additon L 26 22 20 112.7 81 49 21 124 75 70
Devin Jones R 23 26 19 117.3 75 43 21 136 78 73
Daniel McCutchen R 31 39 3 61.7 41 25 10 69 40 37
Brock Huntzinger R 25 41 7 78.3 55 38 13 87 51 48
Mike Belfiore L 25 39 0 70.3 58 36 12 75 45 42
Chris Jones L 25 41 0 68.0 41 40 8 76 44 41
Jake Pettit L 27 24 23 124.3 70 46 23 148 88 82
Tim Alderson R 25 39 4 80.0 56 33 16 91 56 52
Tyler Wilson R 24 35 25 152.7 96 59 29 178 108 101
Zach Clark R 30 24 22 116.7 50 71 17 141 87 81
Josh Stinson R 26 38 21 128.3 67 79 20 148 93 87
Mark Hendrickson L 40 31 0 51.3 23 21 11 64 41 38

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Chris Tillman 187.0 803 20.7% 8.2% .276 4.14 4.40 99 106
Wei-Yin Chen 160.0 687 18.8% 6.7% .288 4.16 4.19 100 101
Bud Norris 173.3 757 20.9% 8.5% .297 4.31 4.22 104 101
Miguel Gonzalez 150.7 648 18.0% 7.6% .277 4.18 4.41 100 106
Kevin Gausman 147.3 629 20.4% 5.7% .302 4.28 3.79 103 91
Mike Wright 137.0 595 15.6% 6.0% .297 4.47 4.36 107 105
Scott Feldman 128.7 556 16.8% 6.9% .284 4.48 4.51 108 108
Jason Hammel 132.7 583 17.2% 8.2% .290 4.61 4.63 111 111
Darren O’Day 59.3 245 25.2% 6.2% .283 3.34 3.58 80 86
Dylan Bundy 78.0 348 17.0% 9.5% .297 4.62 4.75 111 114
Zach Britton 133.3 606 15.4% 10.0% .299 4.93 4.84 118 116
Eduardo Rodriguez 120.3 542 14.1% 9.0% .297 4.94 4.87 119 117
Brian Matusz 59.0 252 23.1% 8.5% .289 3.66 3.64 88 88
Tommy Hunter 81.0 339 20.4% 5.0% .279 4.00 4.08 96 98
Francisco Rodriguez 58.7 252 24.4% 9.0% .288 3.84 3.77 92 91
Troy Patton 58.7 250 18.7% 6.5% .286 3.99 4.00 96 96
T.J. McFarland 109.7 496 13.9% 9.1% .298 5.01 4.84 120 116
Ryan Webb 69.0 302 15.2% 7.9% .288 4.17 4.10 100 98
Kelvin De La Cruz 68.3 306 20.5% 12.0% .291 4.21 4.45 101 107
Zech Zinicola 45.7 200 17.7% 8.1% .293 4.34 4.34 104 104
Tim Bascom 88.3 407 13.5% 11.2% .295 5.20 5.20 125 125
Oliver Drake 42.7 189 18.0% 9.7% .292 4.43 4.60 106 110
Tsuyoshi Wada 93.3 423 16.5% 9.6% .296 5.40 5.44 130 131
Edgmer Escalona 57.3 249 19.2% 8.1% .284 4.55 4.52 109 109
Eddie Gamboa 103.7 471 13.0% 9.2% .294 5.38 5.37 129 129
Brad Brach 74.0 326 21.8% 9.6% .293 4.62 4.59 111 110
Tim Berry 132.3 602 12.6% 8.3% .302 5.44 5.30 131 127
Daniel Schlereth 24.0 113 19.0% 16.0% .291 5.25 5.50 126 132
Jon Rauch 36.3 160 17.2% 7.5% .288 5.20 5.05 125 121
Steve Johnson 100.3 463 18.1% 12.3% .293 5.56 5.61 134 135
Nick Additon 112.7 511 15.9% 9.6% .291 5.59 5.70 134 137
Devin Jones 117.3 531 14.1% 8.0% .299 5.60 5.45 135 131
Daniel McCutchen 61.7 279 14.6% 8.8% .295 5.40 5.35 130 129
Brock Huntzinger 78.3 359 15.4% 10.5% .295 5.51 5.51 133 132
Mike Belfiore 70.3 322 18.2% 11.2% .297 5.37 5.36 129 129
Chris Jones 68.0 320 12.9% 12.6% .300 5.43 5.47 130 132
Jake Pettit 124.3 567 12.3% 8.1% .295 5.94 5.82 143 140
Tim Alderson 80.0 364 15.4% 9.0% .295 5.85 5.84 141 140
Tyler Wilson 152.7 695 13.8% 8.5% .296 5.95 5.77 143 139
Zach Clark 116.7 563 8.9% 12.7% .300 6.25 6.22 150 150
Josh Stinson 128.3 613 10.9% 12.9% .293 6.10 6.27 147 151

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Chris Tillman 187.0 8.02 3.18 1.30 101 2.7 Kris Benson
Wei-Yin Chen 160.0 7.27 2.59 1.16 100 2.3 Mark Redman
Bud Norris 173.3 8.22 3.34 1.15 97 2.2 Kevin Gross
Miguel Gonzalez 150.7 6.96 2.95 1.20 100 2.1 Jeremy Guthrie
Kevin Gausman 147.3 7.85 2.18 1.09 98 1.9 Carl Pavano
Mike Wright 137.0 6.11 2.34 1.11 94 1.4 Ramiro Mendoza
Scott Feldman 128.7 6.52 2.68 1.23 93 1.3 Dana Kiecker
Jason Hammel 132.7 6.81 3.25 1.24 91 1.1 Omar Olivares
Darren O’Day 59.3 9.37 2.32 1.07 125 0.8 Rafael Betancourt
Dylan Bundy 78.0 6.84 3.81 1.11 91 0.7 Josh Johnson
Zach Britton 133.3 6.29 4.10 1.12 85 0.7 Greg Kubes
Eduardo Rodriguez 120.3 5.70 3.65 1.09 85 0.6 Jake Chapman
Brian Matusz 59.0 8.90 3.27 0.92 114 0.6 Mike Stanton
Tommy Hunter 81.0 7.67 1.88 1.33 105 0.4 Jeff Tam
Francisco Rodriguez 58.7 9.42 3.46 1.12 109 0.4 Todd Jones
Troy Patton 58.7 7.19 2.49 1.08 105 0.3 Mike Venafro
T.J. McFarland 109.7 5.64 3.70 1.10 84 0.2 Jake Chapman
Ryan Webb 69.0 6.00 3.13 0.91 100 0.2 Mark Ross
Kelvin De La Cruz 68.3 8.23 4.85 0.92 99 0.2 Kevin Lovingier
Zech Zinicola 45.7 6.99 3.21 1.08 96 0.1 Jose Silva
Tim Bascom 88.3 5.61 4.64 1.06 80 0.0 Jesse Jefferson
Oliver Drake 42.7 7.15 3.86 1.03 94 0.0 Matt Ryan
Tsuyoshi Wada 93.3 6.72 3.93 1.59 77 -0.1 Darren Oliver
Edgmer Escalona 57.3 7.52 3.16 1.34 92 -0.1 Derek Hasselhoff
Eddie Gamboa 103.7 5.33 3.76 1.33 78 -0.1 Mike Dunne
Brad Brach 74.0 8.64 3.83 1.41 90 -0.2 Kurt Knudsen
Tim Berry 132.3 5.16 3.39 1.32 77 -0.2 Rich Rundles
Daniel Schlereth 24.0 8.06 6.80 1.26 80 -0.2 Mike Kinnunen
Jon Rauch 36.3 6.85 3.00 1.70 80 -0.3 Terry Mathews
Steve Johnson 100.3 7.53 5.11 1.57 75 -0.3 Chris Seelbach
Nick Additon 112.7 6.47 3.90 1.70 75 -0.4 Brent Hoard
Devin Jones 117.3 5.74 3.27 1.58 75 -0.4 Rich Yett
Daniel McCutchen 61.7 5.95 3.59 1.51 77 -0.5 Mike Sullivan
Brock Huntzinger 78.3 6.36 4.32 1.50 76 -0.5 Dennis Konuszewski
Mike Belfiore 70.3 7.47 4.60 1.52 78 -0.8 John Miglio
Chris Jones 68.0 5.46 5.33 1.09 77 -0.8 Brian Adams
Jake Pettit 124.3 5.05 3.34 1.70 70 -0.9 Mike Prochaska
Tim Alderson 80.0 6.29 3.67 1.84 71 -1.0 R.A. Dickey
Tyler Wilson 152.7 5.63 3.48 1.72 70 -1.2 Royal Thomas
Zach Clark 116.7 3.86 5.51 1.27 67 -1.3 Michael Smith
Josh Stinson 128.3 4.70 5.56 1.42 69 -1.3 Jeff Wigdahl
Mark Hendrickson 51.3 3.96 3.72 1.97 63 -1.4 Terry Mulholland

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.04 ERA and the NL having a 3.81 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.



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