2014 ZiPS Projections – Boston Red Sox

After having typically appeared in the entirely venerable pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections were released at FanGraphs last year. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Boston Red Sox. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Batters
In Stephen Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, Mike Napoli, and Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Boston has lost to free agency a foursome that accounted for over 2100 plate appearances and 16 wins in the club’s championship 2013 campaign. A difficult thing, is what that would appear to be. One notes, however, that a team never loses a departed player’s performance from the previous season, but from the one ahead. Napoli and Saltalamacchia, for example, are unlikely to match their plus-.350 BABIP figures from 2013. ZiPS discounts their likely 2014 value accordingly.

One notes also that Boston isn’t entirely ill-equipped to deal with those departures. Two of the organization’s more promising young players, Xander Bogaerts and Jackie Bradley, appear to be reasonable — and very cost-effective — alternatives to Drew and Ellsbury. A.J. Pierzynski, meanwhile — whose signing was announced as this actual paragraph was being written — will likely provide as much in the way of wins as Saltalamacchia would have, with less of an investment. Some combination of Mike Carp and Daniel Nava ought to approximate Napoli’s two-win projection at first base. All told, the Red Sox are probably at a deficit of something like two wins.

This, of course, ignores how Boston might choose to utilize the payroll freed up by the aforementioned departures. That same foursome was paid about $30 million collectively in 2013. With a well-established starting rotation, Boston is in a position to focus its resources on upgrades among its field players. Pierzynski is one step in that direction. One supposes that an upgrade at first base/left field could be another.

Pitchers
It’s difficult to tell whether a year is a very long or very short unit of measure. Relative to the wild expanse of the universe, of course, each year is like a finger snap. For anyone reasonably well acquainted with John Lackey, however, it assuredly seems much longer. The right-hander entered 2013 having not pitched at all the previous season — and having been a source of considerable angst among Bostonians when he had pitched before that. Over the course of this past year, however, he became the next-most dependable starter after Jon Lester on Boston’s staff. His 2013 strikeout projection, per ZiPS: 5.53 K/9. His projection for 2014: 7.54 K/9. Striking out two more batters per nine innings is of some benefit to a pitcher’s success.

While there’s likely to be considerable turnover among Boston’s field players, the pitching staff will enter 2014 relatively unchanged, it would appear. Ryan Dempster and Felix Doubront are both candidates for the fifth spot in the rotation. Other than that, however, the rotation is pretty clear. Boston’s top two relievers in 2013, Koji Uehara and Junichi Tazawa, are also returning.

Bench/Prospects
As noted above — and despite the fact that they’ve recorded only about 150 major-league plate appearances between them — both Xander Bogaerts and Jackie Bradley appear to be important pieces for Boston entering 2014. Nor does that appear to represent the entirety of the Sox’ minor-league talent likely capable of producing something of note at the major leagues. Very promising infielders Garin Cecchini and Mookie Betts are regarded by ZiPS as something better than replacement level — as is each member of the catching triumvirate of Daniel Butler, Ryan Lavarnway, and Christian Vazquez. Among pitchers there’s perhaps less in the way of ready talent, although Matt Barnes made his way to Triple-A by the end of the season and is reasonably well-acquitted by ZiPS, as well.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Red Sox, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Red Sox Depth

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Dustin Pedroia R 30 2B 655 76 166 36 2 14 75 18 5
Jacoby Ellsbury L 30 CF 545 72 144 29 5 12 55 32 6
David Ortiz L 38 DH 472 62 120 27 1 25 77 2 0
Shane Victorino B 33 RF 576 72 139 27 6 13 62 24 4
Xander Bogaerts R 21 SS 573 67 138 28 4 16 65 7 4
A.J. Pierzynski L 37 C 481 47 121 22 2 16 67 1 1
Mike Napoli R 32 1B 476 55 99 24 1 22 68 2 1
Garin Cecchini L 23 3B 573 60 136 29 4 6 51 24 8
Jarrod Saltalamacchia B 29 C 429 50 92 25 1 16 57 2 1
Will Middlebrooks R 25 3B 523 49 122 24 1 20 73 7 2
Christian Vazquez R 23 C 432 42 99 19 1 5 38 4 4
Stephen Drew L 31 SS 458 49 98 23 5 10 54 4 2
Jackie Bradley B 24 CF 498 58 108 26 2 9 44 13 8
Dan Butler R 27 C 388 33 81 21 1 9 42 1 1
Mookie Betts R 21 2B 488 56 106 25 2 8 51 21 5
Ryan Lavarnway R 26 C 464 45 103 23 0 11 56 1 0
Blake Swihart B 22 C 431 37 98 23 3 4 38 5 7
Deven Marrero R 23 SS 428 38 93 16 1 3 27 19 4
Daniel Nava B 31 RF 453 49 101 24 1 8 53 2 2
Mike Carp L 28 LF 398 47 93 22 1 14 63 3 2
Alex Hassan R 26 RF 399 39 88 20 0 6 36 2 1
David Ross R 37 C 154 12 29 7 0 5 14 1 0
Jonny Gomes R 33 LF 361 43 73 14 0 13 48 3 1
Ryan Kalish L 26 CF 226 28 50 11 0 4 26 11 3
Brock Holt! L 26 2B 513 51 119 19 3 2 43 10 7
Mitch Maier L 32 CF 183 20 38 6 2 3 16 2 1
Mike McCoy R 33 2B 404 41 79 13 1 3 27 19 7
John McDonald R 39 SS 144 13 30 5 0 2 14 1 0
Mark Hamilton L 29 LF 363 37 73 20 0 8 39 1 0
Quintin Berry L 29 CF 431 43 81 13 2 3 30 30 4
Justin Henry L 29 2B 471 40 103 18 3 1 33 12 7
Brandon Snyder R 27 1B 361 35 80 18 1 10 42 1 1
Juan Carlos Linares R 29 RF 308 28 70 17 1 5 32 0 1
Alex Castellanos R 27 RF 497 59 101 22 5 13 56 13 5
Bryce Brentz R 25 RF 475 45 106 21 2 15 57 3 3
Drew Sutton B 31 1B 369 32 74 20 1 2 31 2 2
Tony Thomas R 27 LF 420 38 82 21 4 8 41 11 2

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP BA OBP SLG wOBA
Dustin Pedroia 655 9.3% 11.1% .141 .302 .285 .352 .425 .340
Jacoby Ellsbury 545 6.8% 13.8% .150 .317 .287 .340 .437 .346
David Ortiz 472 12.9% 15.5% .256 .304 .296 .386 .552 .377
Shane Victorino 576 6.6% 13.4% .151 .294 .269 .331 .420 .331
Xander Bogaerts 573 8.0% 23.6% .162 .331 .267 .331 .429 .333
A.J. Pierzynski 481 2.9% 15.4% .163 .285 .267 .297 .430 .312
Mike Napoli 476 12.2% 30.5% .224 .314 .241 .342 .466 .350
Garin Cecchini 573 9.4% 20.1% .108 .332 .266 .342 .374 .322
Jarrod Saltalamacchia 429 8.4% 30.3% .192 .309 .236 .301 .428 .316
Will Middlebrooks 523 5.2% 26.0% .176 .303 .249 .291 .425 .312
Christian Vazquez 432 8.1% 17.8% .093 .303 .254 .319 .347 .295
Stephen Drew 458 9.6% 23.6% .154 .298 .239 .312 .393 .309
Jackie Bradley 498 8.4% 23.3% .130 .309 .245 .322 .375 .308
Dan Butler 388 7.7% 21.6% .143 .278 .231 .302 .374 .298
Mookie Betts 488 8.6% 13.5% .121 .266 .241 .309 .362 .302
Ryan Lavarnway 464 8.0% 21.3% .134 .295 .247 .313 .381 .307
Blake Swihart 431 5.6% 21.1% .102 .303 .244 .286 .347 .275
Deven Marrero 428 6.8% 21.0% .069 .297 .236 .289 .305 .271
Daniel Nava 453 8.8% 20.8% .127 .315 .257 .344 .384 .322
Mike Carp 398 7.5% 24.1% .183 .311 .258 .319 .442 .330
Alex Hassan 399 11.0% 21.3% .109 .317 .253 .343 .362 .317
David Ross 154 8.4% 35.7% .159 .304 .210 .281 .370 .288
Jonny Gomes 361 11.4% 26.9% .172 .296 .236 .335 .408 .327
Ryan Kalish 226 7.5% 23.0% .112 .305 .244 .302 .356 .296
Brock Holt! 513 7.0% 17.5% .067 .310 .256 .311 .323 .279
Mitch Maier 183 10.4% 24.0% .117 .302 .235 .313 .352 .297
Mike McCoy 404 9.9% 17.8% .068 .272 .224 .306 .292 .271
John McDonald 144 5.6% 16.7% .083 .262 .226 .280 .308 .255
Mark Hamilton 363 9.6% 28.1% .137 .301 .227 .303 .363 .296
Quintin Berry 431 8.6% 26.5% .068 .292 .212 .289 .280 .268
Justin Henry 471 7.6% 14.9% .063 .285 .242 .303 .305 .271
Brandon Snyder 361 4.7% 27.1% .149 .306 .239 .286 .388 .295
Juan Carlos Linares 308 4.5% 22.7% .118 .304 .243 .289 .361 .285
Alex Castellanos 497 6.6% 30.8% .157 .307 .224 .290 .381 .297
Bryce Brentz 475 5.1% 30.1% .157 .314 .238 .280 .395 .293
Drew Sutton 369 8.7% 23.6% .086 .300 .227 .299 .313 .272
Tony Thomas 420 5.2% 31.2% .136 .290 .210 .257 .345 .269

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Dustin Pedroia 655 5.8 110 10 4.6 Billy Herman
Jacoby Ellsbury 545 6.1 109 7 4.0 Sam West
David Ortiz 472 8.2 151 0 3.3 George Brett
Shane Victorino 576 5.5 102 11 3.1 Wally Moses
Xander Bogaerts 573 5.2 105 -4 2.8 Troy Tulowitzki
A.J. Pierzynski 481 4.7 94 0 2.3 Ernie Whitt
Mike Napoli 476 5.7 117 3 2.0 Jeff Burroughs
Garin Cecchini 573 4.9 95 -3 1.9 Dave Magadan
Jarrod Saltalamacchia 429 4.5 95 -3 1.9 Pete LaForest
Will Middlebrooks 523 4.5 91 3 1.8 Willis Otanez
Christian Vazquez 432 3.9 81 2 1.6 Eric Christopherson
Stephen Drew 458 4.4 90 -1 1.6 Hector Luna
Jackie Bradley 498 4.2 89 2 1.5 Ryan Langerhans
Dan Butler 388 3.9 82 0 1.4 Andy Dominique
Mookie Betts 488 4.2 82 2 1.3 Josh McKinley
Ryan Lavarnway 464 4.3 88 -6 1.3 Steve Decker
Blake Swihart 431 3.3 71 4 1.0 Mark Parent
Deven Marrero 428 3.4 62 7 1.0 Jhonny Carvajal
Daniel Nava 453 4.7 98 -1 0.8 Gene Larkin
Mike Carp 398 5.1 104 -4 0.6 Dave Clark
Alex Hassan 399 4.5 92 0 0.6 Javier Brito
David Ross 154 3.6 75 0 0.5 Paul Richards
Jonny Gomes 361 4.9 101 -5 0.4 Benny Agbayani
Ryan Kalish 226 4.1 78 0 0.4 Scott Lusader
Brock Holt! 513 3.6 73 1 0.3 Jose Vizcaino
Mitch Maier 183 3.9 81 -4 0.3 Pat Sheridan
Mike McCoy 404 3.2 64 -1 0.1 Julio Cruz
John McDonald 144 3.1 60 1 0.0 Mark Belanger
Mark Hamilton 363 3.9 80 -6 -0.1 Orsino Hill
Quintin Berry 431 3.4 56 0 -0.1 Jeff Duncan
Justin Henry 471 3.2 66 0 -0.1 Rod Booker
Brandon Snyder 361 3.9 81 1 -0.2 Jason Fransz
Juan Carlos Linares 308 3.6 75 -2 -0.3 Bill McCarthy
Alex Castellanos 497 3.9 81 -3 -0.4 Andy Tomberlin
Bryce Brentz 475 3.8 81 -4 -0.6 Rich Murray
Drew Sutton 369 3.2 67 2 -1.0 Ryan McGuire
Tony Thomas 420 3.2 62 -5 -1.5 Erskine Kelley

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player T Age G GS IP SO BB HR H R ER
Jon Lester L 30 31 31 197.7 176 64 20 188 88 82
Jake Peavy R 33 24 24 149.3 126 32 17 142 66 62
Clay Buchholz R 29 21 21 128.7 105 46 12 119 56 52
John Lackey R 35 27 26 166.0 139 41 22 168 80 75
Felix Doubront L 26 29 24 137.3 128 57 16 133 70 65
Matt Barnes R 24 25 25 122.0 114 48 14 119 61 57
Ryan Dempster R 37 27 25 149.0 132 57 21 150 79 74
Koji Uehara R 39 56 0 52.3 71 7 5 35 13 12
Allen Webster R 24 30 27 128.7 95 61 13 132 70 65
Brandon Workman R 25 31 21 124.0 102 43 17 128 66 62
Anthony Ranaudo R 24 21 20 104.0 78 45 12 107 57 53
Junichi Tazawa R 28 70 0 73.7 76 20 8 67 30 28
Henry Owens L 21 26 25 116.7 117 72 17 112 68 64
Andrew Miller L 29 47 0 39.3 54 22 4 30 16 15
Craig Breslow L 33 62 0 57.0 43 22 5 55 26 24
Marco Duarte R 27 22 14 88.7 75 42 12 92 51 48
Matt Thornton L 37 57 0 48.0 40 14 4 47 21 20
Burke Badenhop R 31 62 0 63.7 44 16 6 66 30 28
Drake Britton L 25 30 20 110.7 80 56 14 119 66 62
Franklin Morales L 28 38 5 55.0 51 25 7 52 29 27
Andrew Bailey R 30 32 0 30.7 35 11 4 27 14 13
Alex Wilson R 27 37 7 70.7 50 36 7 76 41 38
Brandon Lyon R 34 40 0 38.3 29 12 4 40 19 18
Chris Martin R 28 38 0 60.3 42 19 7 63 31 29
Joel Hanrahan R 32 39 0 35.7 37 17 5 32 18 17
Rafael Perez L 32 33 0 31.3 21 10 4 32 16 15
Matt Maloney L 30 18 6 44.3 24 10 6 52 27 25
Brayan Villarreal R 27 50 0 52.3 56 41 5 46 28 26
Jose Contreras R 42 25 0 24.7 23 12 3 25 14 13
Alfredo Aceves R 31 41 8 86.0 65 39 14 89 52 49
Rubby de la Rosa R 25 25 15 68.7 56 47 10 72 46 43
Ryan Rowland-Smith L 31 30 7 66.3 45 35 10 73 43 40
Tommy Layne L 29 59 0 55.0 40 34 6 57 33 31
Will Latimer L 28 27 0 52.0 35 26 7 56 32 30
Chris J. Carpenter R 28 33 0 41.3 31 31 5 43 27 25
Steven Wright R 29 25 22 120.3 69 86 19 139 91 85
Charlie Haeger R 30 20 20 105.7 65 79 19 122 82 77

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Jon Lester 197.7 845 20.8% 7.6% .291 3.73 3.77 89 90
Jake Peavy 149.3 622 20.3% 5.1% .282 3.74 3.67 89 87
Clay Buchholz 128.7 551 19.1% 8.3% .279 3.64 3.89 87 93
John Lackey 166.0 707 19.7% 5.8% .294 4.07 4.10 97 98
Felix Doubront 137.3 602 21.3% 9.5% .295 4.26 4.15 101 99
Matt Barnes 122.0 533 21.4% 9.0% .299 4.20 4.12 100 98
Ryan Dempster 149.0 654 20.2% 8.7% .293 4.47 4.44 106 106
Koji Uehara 52.3 199 35.7% 3.5% .261 2.06 2.10 49 50
Allen Webster 128.7 579 16.4% 10.5% .297 4.55 4.64 108 110
Brandon Workman 124.0 543 18.8% 7.9% .296 4.50 4.49 107 107
Anthony Ranaudo 104.0 464 16.8% 9.7% .294 4.59 4.64 109 110
Junichi Tazawa 73.7 308 24.7% 6.5% .293 3.42 3.41 81 81
Henry Owens 116.7 534 21.9% 13.5% .296 4.94 5.09 118 121
Andrew Miller 39.3 170 31.8% 12.9% .296 3.43 3.58 82 85
Craig Breslow 57.0 248 17.3% 8.9% .284 3.79 4.01 90 95
Marco Duarte 88.7 400 18.7% 10.5% .301 4.87 4.83 116 115
Matt Thornton 48.0 205 19.5% 6.8% .297 3.75 3.46 89 82
Burke Badenhop 63.7 273 16.1% 5.9% .291 3.96 3.63 94 86
Drake Britton 110.7 507 15.8% 11.0% .299 5.04 5.05 120 120
Franklin Morales 55.0 242 21.1% 10.3% .290 4.42 4.44 105 106
Andrew Bailey 30.7 130 26.9% 8.5% .287 3.82 3.56 91 85
Alex Wilson 70.7 324 15.4% 11.1% .304 4.84 4.66 115 111
Brandon Lyon 38.3 167 17.4% 7.2% .298 4.23 3.87 101 92
Chris Martin 60.3 263 16.0% 7.2% .293 4.33 4.38 103 104
Joel Hanrahan 35.7 156 23.7% 10.9% .281 4.29 4.43 102 105
Rafael Perez 31.3 136 15.5% 7.4% .280 4.31 4.54 103 108
Matt Maloney 44.3 195 12.3% 5.1% .303 5.08 4.73 121 113
Brayan Villarreal 52.3 244 23.0% 16.8% .293 4.47 4.62 106 110
Jose Contreras 24.7 111 20.7% 10.8% .305 4.74 4.47 113 106
Alfredo Aceves 86.0 386 16.8% 10.1% .286 5.13 5.31 122 126
Rubby de la Rosa 68.7 325 17.2% 14.5% .298 5.64 5.62 134 134
Ryan Rowland-Smith 66.3 307 14.7% 11.4% .296 5.43 5.54 129 132
Tommy Layne 55.0 256 15.6% 13.3% .298 5.07 5.15 121 123
Will Latimer 52.0 238 14.7% 10.9% .293 5.19 5.19 124 124
Chris J. Carpenter 41.3 198 15.7% 15.7% .297 5.44 5.64 129 134
Steven Wright 120.3 586 11.8% 14.7% .298 6.36 6.45 151 153
Charlie Haeger 105.7 518 12.5% 15.2% .296 6.56 6.72 156 160

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Jon Lester 197.7 8.01 2.91 0.91 112 3.8 Doug Davis
Jake Peavy 149.3 7.60 1.93 1.02 112 2.9 Kevin Tapani
Clay Buchholz 128.7 7.34 3.22 0.84 115 2.6 Wade Miller
John Lackey 166.0 7.54 2.22 1.19 103 2.5 Scott Sanderson
Felix Doubront 137.3 8.39 3.74 1.05 98 1.7 Steve Searcy
Matt Barnes 122.0 8.41 3.54 1.03 99 1.7 Bob Walk
Ryan Dempster 149.0 7.97 3.44 1.27 94 1.5 Dave Stewart
Koji Uehara 52.3 12.22 1.20 0.86 203 1.5 Dennis Eckersley
Allen Webster 128.7 6.64 4.27 0.91 92 1.2 Larry Mitchell
Brandon Workman 124.0 7.40 3.12 1.23 93 1.2 Juan Dominguez
Anthony Ranaudo 104.0 6.75 3.89 1.04 91 0.9 Randy Bockus
Junichi Tazawa 73.7 9.28 2.44 0.98 122 0.9 Bob James
Henry Owens 116.7 9.02 5.55 1.31 85 0.6 Billy Wagner
Andrew Miller 39.3 12.37 5.04 0.92 122 0.5 Will Ohman
Craig Breslow 57.0 6.79 3.47 0.79 110 0.4 Scott Schoeneweis
Marco Duarte 88.7 7.61 4.26 1.22 86 0.4 Chris Oxspring
Matt Thornton 48.0 7.50 2.63 0.75 112 0.4 Buddy Groom
Burke Badenhop 63.7 6.22 2.26 0.85 106 0.4 Brian Schmack
Drake Britton 110.7 6.50 4.55 1.14 83 0.3 Sebern Wright
Franklin Morales 55.0 8.35 4.09 1.15 95 0.3 Billy Brewer
Andrew Bailey 30.7 10.26 3.22 1.17 110 0.2 Jeff Austin
Alex Wilson 70.7 6.36 4.58 0.89 86 0.1 Ryan Henderson
Brandon Lyon 38.3 6.81 2.82 0.94 99 0.1 Rodney Myers
Chris Martin 60.3 6.27 2.84 1.04 97 0.1 Robert Tenenini
Joel Hanrahan 35.7 9.33 4.29 1.26 98 0.1 Rich Croushore
Rafael Perez 31.3 6.04 2.88 1.15 97 0.1 Brian Shouse
Matt Maloney 44.3 4.88 2.03 1.22 82 0.0 Tony Fossas
Brayan Villarreal 52.3 9.64 7.06 0.86 94 0.0 Calvin Jones
Jose Contreras 24.7 8.38 4.37 1.09 88 -0.1 Roberto Hernandez
Alfredo Aceves 86.0 6.80 4.08 1.47 82 -0.2 Tom Kramer
Rubby de la Rosa 68.7 7.34 6.16 1.31 74 -0.3 Ivan Montane
Ryan Rowland-Smith 66.3 6.11 4.75 1.36 77 -0.3 Dan Smith
Tommy Layne 55.0 6.55 5.56 0.98 82 -0.4 Tom Doyle
Will Latimer 52.0 6.06 4.50 1.21 81 -0.5 Danny Young
Chris J. Carpenter 41.3 6.76 6.76 1.09 77 -0.5 Bart Evans
Steven Wright 120.3 5.16 6.43 1.42 66 -1.5 Michael Smith
Charlie Haeger 105.7 5.53 6.73 1.62 64 -1.6 Tony Cloninger

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.04 ERA and the NL having a 3.81 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.



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Carson Cistulli has just published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.


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ambition777
Member
ambition777
2 years 5 months ago

Sweet. I’ve been waiting for this.

Also, I’m a bit disappointed that Carson didn’t title the new site “Matches in Paris”. Would have loved a flash landing page with the Jay Z / Kanye instrumental automatically playing…

IZZY2112
Member
IZZY2112
2 years 5 months ago

Are the wOBA calculations here done by Szymborski or done by Fangraphs?

Also, is it possible to get base-running runs estimates as well?

Steve C
Guest
Steve C
2 years 5 months ago

I love that it is “Brock Holt!”

Scott
Guest
Scott
2 years 5 months ago

seconded….beat me to this comment :)

Schide
Member
Schide
2 years 5 months ago

~original

RC
Guest
RC
2 years 5 months ago

I’m curious as to why people keep thinking Daniel Nava isn’t a good player.

Seriously, you’re predicting LF as a +1 WAR position, when its being manned by a guy with a career .370 OBP, a minor league record of an OBP over .400, etc. He’s not a superstar, but hes a 2WAR player in 500 or so PA.

I mean, seriously, a .257/.344/.383 line? The only time hes ever been close to that was his cup-of-coffee in 2010 (over 160 PA).

And that doesn’t even account for Gomes not being a replacement player.

dl80
Guest
dl80
2 years 5 months ago

“I mean, seriously, a .257/.344/.383 line? The only time hes ever been close to that was his cup-of-coffee in 2010 (over 160 PA).”

Well, also in 2012: .243/.352/.390 (in 317 PAs).

So, two of the three years, he’s been very close to the projected line. The other year, was last year, and while he had about as many plate appearances last year as the other two combined, you can’t ignore the previous two.

Plus, his BABIP last year (.352) is likely coming down quite a bit.

But his strikeout rate has been improving, and I might project him at .275/.355/.420 (not that anyone asked me). That’s decent, but if his defense is as bad as UZR thinks, that’s like a 1 – 1.5 win player over a mostly full season, isn’t it?

Obviously, if his defense isn’t as terrible, or if his K rate keeps going down (and his BB rate rebounds from last year’s dip), or if he maintains the high BABIP, he could be better. But I can’t see his ceiling as being much more than 2-3 at most.

And in fantasy, it’s even worse: middling-at-best power, no steals, about to turn 31. I just don’t see the upside in real life or fantasy.

RC
Guest
RC
2 years 5 months ago

“Plus, his BABIP last year (.352) is likely coming down quite a bit.”

Why? The kid has a career .332 BABIP, and had a higher one in the minors. He also had a career mL OBP of .415.

If you’re regressing his BABIP, it should only come down a couple points.

As to 2012, he was hurt most of the year.

fip_drip
Member
fip_drip
2 years 5 months ago

Matt Barnes might be the most underrated prospect in the Sox system right now, if one of those is even possible..

NS
Guest
NS
2 years 5 months ago

Isn’t he a top 50 MLB prospect? Almost certainly not underrated.

fip_drip
Member
fip_drip
2 years 5 months ago

Baseball America: “Matt Barnes did not draw rave reviews. His ceiling seems to be somewhere in the neighborhood of a No. 5 guy, but his heater, while hard, is straight. His curveball comes and goes, which is a problem.”

Los
Guest
Los
2 years 5 months ago

“Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012.”

I can pretty much guarantee a few of those will not play at all in 2012. John Lackey for example.

Matthew
Member
Member
2 years 5 months ago

Dat Troy Tulowitski Comp for Xander.
Dat Billy Wagner Comp for Henry Owens.

Josh
Guest
Josh
2 years 5 months ago

Have Xander in a dynasty league, I smiled like a small child.

Marcus Tullius Cicero
Guest
Marcus Tullius Cicero
2 years 5 months ago

ZIPS seems to have about as much faith in Nava as Farrell did during the playoffs.

I am, however, amazed that it takes (mis)spelling of first names into account in making predictions (cf. Mr. Marrero)

Marcus Tullius Cicero
Guest
Marcus Tullius Cicero
2 years 5 months ago

Also, how often does ZIPS project ERA- and FIP- numbers as low as Koji’s?

tyke
Guest
tyke
2 years 5 months ago

brock holt!

Devern Hansack
Guest
Devern Hansack
2 years 5 months ago

I’d personally like to see Hassan get a shot to platoon with Carp at first. He’s a high OBP righty who has gotten some time (albeit only 12 games) at first in the minors.

champion88
Member
champion88
2 years 5 months ago

Honestly, I’d be very surprised if Carp is even given a chance to be part of a platoon.

I would think the Red Sox would want to get someone a bit more reliable.

Joel
Guest
Joel
2 years 5 months ago

Interesting that ZiPS loves Pierzynski’s durability — at age 37 — over Saltalamacchia’s next season.

Might be the case, but surprising all the same.

Tom
Guest
2 years 5 months ago

Brock Holt!

Tom
Guest
2 years 5 months ago

Damnit, that’s what I get for leaving the tab open all day.

AJ
Guest
AJ
2 years 5 months ago

That David Ortiz RBI projection looks awfully low. It seems to be more of playing time thing than a performance thing though.

John
Guest
John
2 years 5 months ago

In the batters section, Bradley is incorrectly listed as a switch hitter, when in fact he bats left-handed.

avoidiam
Member
avoidiam
2 years 5 months ago

It’d be really nice if fangraphs created an easy index page of all these articles making them much easier to get to in the future.

champion88
Member
champion88
2 years 5 months ago

In each new team posted in the series, there is a list of hyperlinks indicating which teams have already been posted.

n8
Guest
n8
2 years 3 months ago

Where’s Moo-hee-ka?

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