2014 ZiPS Projections – New York Mets

After having typically appeared in the entirely venerable pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections were released at FanGraphs last year. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the New York Mets. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Cincinnati / Cleveland / Detroit / Los Angeles NL / Miami / Minnesota / New York AL / Philadelphia / San Diego / Seattle / St. Louis / Tampa Bay.

Batters
A commitment of four years and $60 million was required to sign outfielder Curtis Granderson this offseason, while just one year and $7.25 million were sufficient for other outfielder Chris Young. Equally valuable, is more or less how ZiPS regards the pair, who are entering their age-33 and -30 seasons, respectively. Projected to save five runs as a center fielder, Young might reasonably be considered a candidate to save something like 10-15 runs given a full season in right field for New York.

It’s not unthinkable that certain readers will take exception to David Wright‘s projection of 4.4 zWAR, after the last two seasons recorded by that handsome Face of the Franchise. “Ridiculous,” one might say. “Pffft,” another is likely to add, probably covering his monitor in saliva at the same time. While unqualified to comment at length about Dan Szymborski’s precise methodology, the present author understands enough about these projections, generally, to know that some combination of BABIP regression, aging curve, and Wright’s decidedly less impressive 2011 campaign are likely the main influences here.

Pitchers
Mets supporters with a sensitive disposition might want to avoid inspecting the pitching projections for their club below — mostly, that is, because heroic and tragic Matt Harvey‘s name appears atop everyone else’s. ZiPS doesn’t know that he’s likely to miss all of 2014, just that he recorded a total of 178.1 innings in 2013 and was excellent while so doing.

More than has been the case with other clubs in this ongoing release of ZiPS, it’s the case with the Mets that the five pitchers most likely to begin the season in the rotation aren’t necessarily the five considered most qualified by Dan Szymborski’s computer math. Ranked solely by projected WAR, both Rafael Montero (1.5 zWAR) and Noah Syndergaard (1.4 zWAR) would merit a place in the opening-day rotation.

Bench/Prospects
The defensively homeless Lucas Duda has recorded no fewer than 347 plate appearances in each of the last three seasons — which is to say that, despite his absence from the depth-chart graphic below, he’s likely to play some part in the Mets 2014 campaign. In addition to the optimistic pitching projections for Montero and Syndergaard, the Metropolitans also appear to feature a few young field players with equally promising forecasts. Wilfredo Tovar, Wilmer Flores, and Cesar Puello are all projected to produce baseball wins at something approximating a league-average rate.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Mets, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Mets Depth

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
David Wright R 31 3B 550 72 133 27 4 19 74 17 5
Chris Young R 30 CF 461 56 95 24 2 16 54 13 5
Curtis Granderson L 33 CF 474 68 98 16 5 20 54 11 4
Juan Lagares R 25 CF 564 56 134 24 7 6 53 13 7
Daniel Murphy L 29 2B 576 71 152 32 3 9 70 14 3
Wilfredo Tovar R 22 SS 533 60 123 20 4 4 45 11 8
Travis d’Arnaud R 25 C 336 34 75 16 1 9 39 1 1
Cesar Puello R 23 RF 392 52 91 17 3 11 51 19 6
Ruben Tejada R 24 SS 572 57 133 27 2 2 38 5 3
Wilmer Flores R 22 2B 598 71 146 31 4 14 79 2 3
Ike Davis L 27 1B 445 55 89 20 0 18 62 2 1
Juan Centeno L 24 C 301 28 71 10 2 0 22 2 1
Kirk Nieuwenhuis L 26 CF 393 50 78 16 2 11 39 6 3
Anthony Recker R 30 C 287 32 58 13 1 9 34 2 2
Eric Young B 29 LF 460 56 101 19 6 2 26 32 6
Zach Lutz R 28 3B 399 45 81 16 2 10 43 0 1
Justin Turner R 29 3B 336 31 81 19 2 4 31 2 1
Lucas Duda L 28 LF 522 58 108 22 1 18 61 1 1
Matt den Dekker L 26 CF 454 50 94 16 6 9 48 13 5
Josh Satin R 29 1B 536 58 116 25 1 10 50 2 3
Andrew Brown R 29 RF 448 49 92 19 3 15 59 2 2
Josh Rodriguez R 29 3B 489 51 101 19 2 7 44 4 4
Omar Quintanilla L 32 SS 381 38 79 13 3 4 31 2 2
Landon Powell B 32 C 162 17 29 4 0 3 13 0 0
Reese Havens L 27 3B 226 22 40 8 1 5 19 1 1
Taylor Teagarden R 30 C 143 11 25 4 1 4 14 0 0
Brandon Allen L 28 1B 452 50 86 18 3 14 54 5 1
Allan Dykstra L 27 1B 445 45 75 14 0 13 48 1 1
Rick Ankiel L 34 RF 221 23 43 10 1 7 24 2 2
Jamie Hoffmann R 29 LF 467 47 100 21 2 9 49 8 2
Rhyne Hughes L 30 1B 300 31 59 14 1 8 34 2 2
Brian Bixler R 31 CF 330 32 62 11 1 3 22 7 3
Cory Vaughn R 25 LF 458 44 84 14 3 11 45 10 4

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP BA OBP SLG wOBA
David Wright 550 10.9% 19.3% .191 .316 .276 .358 .467 .354
Chris Young 461 10.2% 22.8% .186 .271 .232 .312 .418 .320
Curtis Granderson 474 10.5% 25.9% .207 .284 .237 .322 .444 .333
Juan Lagares 564 4.6% 21.6% .106 .318 .254 .291 .360 .282
Daniel Murphy 576 5.2% 12.5% .121 .310 .282 .320 .403 .316
Wilfredo Tovar 533 5.4% 12.0% .081 .281 .252 .301 .333 .278
Travis d’Arnaud 336 7.4% 24.1% .147 .303 .245 .307 .392 .306
Cesar Puello 392 4.3% 28.1% .156 .335 .253 .314 .409 .324
Ruben Tejada 572 6.1% 13.6% .071 .295 .255 .309 .326 .281
Wilmer Flores 598 4.7% 15.4% .146 .288 .263 .297 .409 .305
Ike Davis 445 12.8% 26.3% .192 .282 .232 .330 .424 .328
Juan Centeno 301 4.7% 15.6% .051 .306 .257 .295 .308 .264
Kirk Nieuwenhuis 393 8.9% 30.8% .151 .303 .222 .295 .373 .293
Anthony Recker 287 8.4% 27.9% .163 .287 .225 .294 .388 .296
Eric Young 460 8.3% 17.6% .091 .301 .246 .313 .337 .296
Zach Lutz 399 9.0% 30.1% .140 .310 .228 .302 .368 .296
Justin Turner 336 6.0% 14.0% .113 .297 .262 .316 .375 .304
Lucas Duda 522 11.5% 25.3% .173 .295 .239 .335 .412 .328
Matt den Dekker 454 5.7% 31.5% .132 .316 .225 .277 .357 .280
Josh Satin 536 10.6% 26.1% .121 .325 .245 .328 .366 .309
Andrew Brown 448 8.0% 28.3% .174 .289 .228 .293 .402 .302
Josh Rodriguez 489 8.0% 24.3% .099 .294 .228 .292 .327 .274
Omar Quintanilla 381 8.4% 20.5% .091 .285 .231 .298 .322 .269
Landon Powell 162 9.3% 26.5% .090 .263 .200 .280 .290 .255
Reese Havens 226 9.7% 34.1% .124 .292 .199 .283 .323 .274
Taylor Teagarden 143 6.3% 37.1% .137 .280 .189 .246 .326 .253
Brandon Allen 452 9.5% 28.5% .164 .273 .213 .290 .377 .294
Allan Dykstra 445 13.5% 36.6% .141 .305 .199 .317 .340 .298
Rick Ankiel 221 7.2% 33.5% .162 .295 .212 .273 .374 .280
Jamie Hoffmann 467 5.8% 20.8% .121 .276 .231 .281 .352 .280
Rhyne Hughes 300 6.7% 35.3% .145 .311 .214 .270 .359 .277
Brian Bixler 330 6.4% 30.0% .073 .294 .206 .263 .279 .242
Cory Vaughn 458 7.6% 31.9% .129 .285 .204 .282 .333 .278

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
David Wright 550 6.4 130 1 4.4 Bob Elliott
Chris Young 461 4.7 104 5 2.7 Dave Henderson
Curtis Granderson 474 5.1 113 -4 2.4 David Dellucci
Juan Lagares 564 3.8 82 10 2.0 Alexis Rios
Daniel Murphy 576 5.0 102 -8 1.8 Todd Walker
Wilfredo Tovar 533 3.5 79 5 1.7 Tim Foli
Travis d’Arnaud 336 4.3 95 -1 1.6 Ryan Doumit
Cesar Puello 392 4.9 102 3 1.6 Sixto Lezcano
Ruben Tejada 572 3.6 79 1 1.5 David Lamb
Wilmer Flores 598 4.4 97 -5 1.5 Michael Barrett
Ike Davis 445 4.9 111 2 1.4 Pat Dodson
Juan Centeno 301 3.3 70 4 1.1 Orlando Sanchez
Kirk Nieuwenhuis 393 3.8 87 0 1.0 Duane Walker
Anthony Recker 287 3.9 90 -3 1.0 Steve Yeager
Eric Young 460 4.3 83 3 0.9 Randy Winn
Zach Lutz 399 3.8 87 -3 0.7 Roy Smalley
Justin Turner 336 4.4 94 -4 0.7 Terry Tiffee
Lucas Duda 522 4.9 109 -11 0.7 Chris Duncan
Matt den Dekker 454 3.5 77 0 0.6 Herm Winningham
Josh Satin 536 4.2 95 0 0.5 Chris Shelton
Andrew Brown 448 4.1 93 -2 0.4 Larry Littleton
Josh Rodriguez 489 3.2 74 -1 0.3 Adam Morrissey
Omar Quintanilla 381 3.3 75 -3 0.3 Brian Guinn
Landon Powell 162 2.7 61 0 0.1 Jayhawk Owens
Reese Havens 226 3.0 70 0 0.1 Ryan Owens
Taylor Teagarden 143 2.7 60 -2 0.0 Jayhawk Owens
Brandon Allen 452 3.8 86 0 -0.1 Nate Murphy
Allan Dykstra 445 3.6 85 -1 -0.1 Josh Whitesell
Rick Ankiel 221 3.4 80 -1 -0.2 Dann Howitt
Jamie Hoffmann 467 3.6 77 -4 -0.6 Chip Childress
Rhyne Hughes 300 3.3 75 -1 -0.6 Doug Deeds
Brian Bixler 330 2.5 53 -2 -0.7 Damon Buford
Cory Vaughn 458 3.2 73 -4 -0.8 Mark Davidson

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player T Age G GS IP SO BB HR H R ER
Matt Harvey R 25 28 28 164.3 167 49 12 140 59 55
Zack Wheeler R 24 30 30 166.7 151 66 15 154 72 67
Bartolo Colon R 41 24 24 147.7 97 24 14 155 63 59
Jon Niese L 27 27 27 161.7 121 49 14 161 73 68
Rafael Montero R 23 25 25 138.7 110 33 14 134 62 58
Noah Syndergaard R 21 27 24 117.0 114 39 12 108 50 47
Dillon Gee R 28 26 25 156.3 115 44 18 158 76 71
Carlos Torres R 31 41 17 128.3 102 43 16 124 63 59
Jacob deGrom R 26 23 23 127.0 81 40 12 133 65 61
Bobby Parnell R 29 59 0 56.7 50 16 4 51 21 20
Jack Leathersich L 23 47 0 66.0 85 42 5 51 27 25
Jenrry Mejia R 24 21 13 74.7 53 29 7 77 37 35
Jeremy Hefner R 28 27 22 134.3 94 38 17 141 71 66
Aaron Harang R 36 24 24 137.3 103 48 17 140 73 68
Cory Mazzoni R 24 20 19 105.3 72 33 13 109 56 52
Jeff Walters R 26 49 0 56.3 46 18 5 53 24 22
Scott Atchison R 38 44 0 43.3 31 10 4 42 18 17
Vic Black R 26 56 0 61.7 68 32 5 52 27 25
Johan Santana L 35 9 9 44.7 37 15 6 45 24 22
Jeurys Familia R 24 21 11 60.3 50 31 7 60 32 30
Steven Matz L 23 17 17 76.0 62 42 9 75 42 39
Logan Verrett R 24 22 22 125.7 96 27 21 132 70 65
Erik Goeddel R 25 23 22 112.0 85 51 13 115 62 58
Pedro Feliciano L 37 29 0 20.0 16 7 2 19 10 9
Tim Byrdak L 40 35 0 21.3 20 13 2 19 11 10
Frank Francisco R 34 34 0 30.7 31 13 3 28 15 14
Scott Rice L 32 55 0 49.3 36 24 4 47 24 22
Gonzalez Germen R 26 65 0 79.7 69 28 9 77 39 36
Sean Henn L 33 38 0 46.7 34 28 3 45 24 22
Justin Hampson L 34 55 0 60.0 41 27 5 61 31 29
Daryl Thompson R 28 11 10 51.7 37 25 7 56 32 30
Matt Fox R 31 18 16 84.7 50 29 12 93 50 47
Josh Edgin L 27 58 0 57.0 49 27 6 55 30 28
David Aardsma R 32 31 0 31.0 27 17 4 30 18 17
Daisuke Matsuzaka R 33 20 19 93.7 70 47 13 97 58 54
Ryan Reid R 29 45 0 61.7 45 30 8 63 35 33
Robert Carson L 25 59 0 66.0 44 28 8 68 37 35

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Matt Harvey 164.3 682 24.5% 7.2% .286 3.01 3.07 82 84
Zack Wheeler 166.7 720 21.0% 9.2% .290 3.62 3.80 99 104
Bartolo Colon 147.7 622 15.6% 3.9% .289 3.60 3.54 98 97
Jon Niese 161.7 695 17.4% 7.0% .290 3.79 3.74 104 102
Rafael Montero 138.7 583 18.9% 5.7% .287 3.76 3.76 103 103
Noah Syndergaard 117.0 498 22.9% 7.8% .294 3.62 3.71 99 102
Dillon Gee 156.3 671 17.1% 6.6% .288 4.09 4.15 112 114
Carlos Torres 128.3 552 18.5% 7.8% .282 4.14 4.35 113 119
Jacob deGrom 127.0 554 14.6% 7.2% .293 4.32 4.19 118 115
Bobby Parnell 56.7 237 21.1% 6.7% .283 3.18 3.04 87 83
Jack Leathersich 66.0 291 29.2% 14.4% .295 3.41 3.56 93 97
Jenrry Mejia 74.7 330 16.1% 8.8% .294 4.22 4.23 115 116
Jeremy Hefner 134.3 582 16.2% 6.5% .290 4.42 4.33 121 118
Aaron Harang 137.3 600 17.2% 8.0% .287 4.46 4.31 122 118
Cory Mazzoni 105.3 458 15.7% 7.2% .287 4.44 4.47 121 122
Jeff Walters 56.3 240 19.2% 7.5% .288 3.51 3.79 96 104
Scott Atchison 43.3 182 17.0% 5.5% .278 3.53 3.54 97 97
Vic Black 61.7 269 25.3% 11.9% .294 3.65 3.65 100 100
Johan Santana 44.7 194 19.1% 7.7% .287 4.43 4.25 121 116
Jeurys Familia 60.3 272 18.4% 11.4% .293 4.48 4.64 122 127
Steven Matz 76.0 345 18.0% 12.2% .292 4.62 4.95 126 135
Logan Verrett 125.7 536 17.9% 5.0% .288 4.66 4.61 127 126
Erik Goeddel 112.0 502 16.9% 10.2% .294 4.66 4.64 127 127
Pedro Feliciano 20.0 86 18.6% 8.1% .283 4.05 3.90 111 107
Tim Byrdak 21.3 96 20.9% 13.6% .284 4.22 4.18 115 114
Frank Francisco 30.7 133 23.3% 9.8% .290 4.11 3.57 112 98
Scott Rice 49.3 219 16.4% 11.0% .283 4.01 4.27 110 117
Gonzalez Germen 79.7 344 20.1% 8.1% .289 4.07 4.02 111 110
Sean Henn 46.7 213 16.0% 13.1% .289 4.24 4.39 116 120
Justin Hampson 60.0 268 15.3% 10.1% .293 4.35 4.37 119 119
Daryl Thompson 51.7 236 15.7% 10.6% .299 5.23 5.10 143 140
Matt Fox 84.7 376 13.3% 7.7% .289 5.00 5.02 137 137
Josh Edgin 57.0 253 19.4% 10.7% .293 4.42 4.33 121 118
David Aardsma 31.0 140 19.3% 12.1% .292 4.94 4.63 135 127
Daisuke Matsuzaka 93.7 425 16.5% 11.1% .292 5.19 5.19 142 142
Ryan Reid 61.7 278 16.2% 10.8% .289 4.82 5.03 132 138
Robert Carson 66.0 294 15.0% 9.5% .286 4.77 4.76 130 130

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Matt Harvey 164.3 9.15 2.68 0.66 121 3.2 Bob Welch
Zack Wheeler 166.7 8.15 3.56 0.81 100 2.1 Matt Clement
Bartolo Colon 147.7 5.91 1.46 0.85 101 1.9 Freddie Fitzsimmons
Jon Niese 161.7 6.73 2.73 0.78 96 1.7 Steve Trout
Rafael Montero 138.7 7.14 2.14 0.91 96 1.5 Joe Blanton
Noah Syndergaard 117.0 8.77 3.00 0.92 100 1.4 Paul Wilson
Dillon Gee 156.3 6.62 2.53 1.04 89 1.0 Bill Laskey
Carlos Torres 128.3 7.16 3.02 1.12 88 0.5 Geremi Gonzalez
Jacob deGrom 127.0 5.74 2.83 0.85 84 0.5 Cha-Seung Baek
Bobby Parnell 56.7 7.94 2.54 0.63 114 0.5 Donnie Moore
Jack Leathersich 66.0 11.59 5.73 0.68 107 0.4 Dennys Reyes
Jenrry Mejia 74.7 6.39 3.49 0.84 86 0.3 C.J. Wilson
Jeremy Hefner 134.3 6.30 2.55 1.14 82 0.3 Larry Luebbers
Aaron Harang 137.3 6.75 3.15 1.11 81 0.3 Bobby Witt
Cory Mazzoni 105.3 6.15 2.82 1.11 82 0.2 Jonathan Johnson
Jeff Walters 56.3 7.35 2.88 0.80 103 0.2 Erik Bennett
Scott Atchison 43.3 6.44 2.08 0.83 103 0.2 Dave Pavlas
Vic Black 61.7 9.92 4.67 0.73 100 0.2 Brad Voyles
Johan Santana 44.7 7.45 3.02 1.21 82 0.1 Shawn Estes
Jeurys Familia 60.3 7.46 4.63 1.04 81 0.0 David Cone
Steven Matz 76.0 7.34 4.97 1.07 79 0.0 Dan Chergey
Logan Verrett 125.7 6.87 1.93 1.50 78 0.0 Mark DiFelice
Erik Goeddel 112.0 6.83 4.10 1.04 78 0.0 J.D. Durbin
Pedro Feliciano 20.0 7.20 3.15 0.90 90 0.0 Lee Guetterman
Tim Byrdak 21.3 8.45 5.49 0.85 86 -0.1 Mike Stanton
Frank Francisco 30.7 9.09 3.81 0.88 88 -0.1 Ricky Bottalico
Scott Rice 49.3 6.57 4.38 0.73 90 -0.1 Sean Fesh
Gonzalez Germen 79.7 7.79 3.16 1.02 89 -0.2 Jose Capellan
Sean Henn 46.7 6.55 5.40 0.58 86 -0.2 Marshall Bridges
Justin Hampson 60.0 6.15 4.05 0.75 83 -0.4 Mike Venafro
Daryl Thompson 51.7 6.44 4.35 1.22 69 -0.4 Jamie Brewington
Matt Fox 84.7 5.31 3.08 1.28 73 -0.4 Bob Milacki
Josh Edgin 57.0 7.74 4.26 0.95 82 -0.4 Kevin Tolar
David Aardsma 31.0 7.84 4.94 1.16 74 -0.4 Pete Walker
Daisuke Matsuzaka 93.7 6.72 4.51 1.25 70 -0.6 Erik Hanson
Ryan Reid 61.7 6.56 4.38 1.17 75 -0.7 Marty McLeary
Robert Carson 66.0 6.00 3.82 1.09 76 -0.7 Kevin Ohme

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.04 ERA and the NL having a 3.81 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.




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Carson Cistulli occasionally publishes spirited ejaculations at The New Enthusiast.


55 Responses to “2014 ZiPS Projections – New York Mets”

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  1. Dave says:

    I know he has never put it all together for a whole season, but I think Gee has a chance to have a really nice year in 2014. He was awesome over the last 22 starts last year with a 2.71 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP. Not predicting All-Star, but a career year for him. 15 wins, 3.30-3.50 ERA.

    +5 Vote -1 Vote +1

  2. Coop! says:

    Noah Syndergaard’s comp is Paul Wilson, NO!!!!!

    +16 Vote -1 Vote +1

  3. MrMet33 says:

    I think Eric Campbell and Darin Gorski should get projections as well. It’s quite likely that Campbell reaches the MLB at some point during 2014.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  4. Alex M says:

    Well that’s disappointing.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  5. MrMet33 says:

    Also – Joel Carreno is more than likely going to be in the Met’s pen this season.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  6. Jeffrey Paternostro says:

    I am probably the only person who cares about this, but given the BB rate for Puello, how many HBP does ZIPS see him getting?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  7. Based on the projections, Citi Field needs to move in the fences.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  8. Xeifrank says:

    Not a whole lot of WAR there. I had used a different projection system a few weeks ago, running the numbers through my simulator to see what the Mets most efficient lineup vs both RHP and LHP would be. It’s not likely the one they are going to end up using. But this is what it came up with.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • champion88 says:

      What was the projected lineup for your simulator against RHP and LHP?

      I think you forgot to include it in your post!

      And I agree: 27 team WAR is the lowest so far!

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • LaLoosh says:

        yeah, it’s pretty ugly.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Xeifrank says:

        Sorry I wasn’t more specific, there is a link in there on the word “this”.

        But here is how the lineup(s) turned out vs RHP/LHP

        1. Chris Young
        2. Curtis Granderson
        3. Ike Davis
        4. David Wright
        5. Daniel Murphy
        6. Ruben Tejada
        7. Travis d’Arnaud
        8. Juan Lagares
        9. Pitchers Spot

        Turned out that the same lineup was tops vs both RHP and LHP for the Mets (the first team to have this so far). There is a short breakdown analysis at the link that I won’t bore you with here.

        The more likely lineup that the Mets will “actually” use according to MLBDepthCharts is…

        Young-Murphy-Wright-Granderson-Davis-Lagares-d’Arnaud-Tejada-Pitcher

        Vote -1 Vote +1

        • Cary Tilton says:

          ??? Chris Young leading off?? last year he had a 280 OBP and struck out 93 in only 375 PA’s…

          Ike Davis third INSTEAD OF DAVID WRIGHT??? your computer may be broken???

          Vote -1 Vote +1

        • Cary Tilton says:

          oooof! sorry, i forgot the mets are broken!

          Vote -1 Vote +1

        • Ethan says:

          I very highly doubt Lagares would bat 6th. I’d have to imagine the lineup would look like Tejada, Murphy, Wright, Granderson, Davis or Duda, C. Young, d’Arnaud, Lagares.
          However, Collins wants Eric Young leadung off, so it will probably look like: E. Young, Murphy, Wright, Granderson, Davis or Duda, C. Young, d’Arnaud, Tejada.

          Vote -1 Vote +1

  9. Granderson Thoughts says:

    I think Granderson will be at least neutral in defensive value in LF. He was above board in his limited innings with the Yankees last year when not playing CF, and being alongside Lagares will certainly help.

    On the flip-side, being a lefty pull/power hitter, his offensive numbers will certainly falter in average-for-lefties CitiField as opposed to awesome-for-lefties Yankee Stadium.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  10. brrrrhead says:

    …i’m thinkin i’m takin’ the “under” on Harvey’s 3.2 WAR season

    +6 Vote -1 Vote +1

  11. Andy says:

    Even better: the Mets have not one, but two players whose number 1 comparable is Jayhawk Owens.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  12. Marc says:

    BABIP regression? Wright’s .347 and .340 marks from the last 2 seasons is perfectly in line with his career .341 BABIP. 6000 career plate appearances have been enough to prove he can sustain this.

    Wright’s WAR per 162 games over the last 2 seasons is more than 8. I’m definitely taking the over on 4.4.

    +6 Vote -1 Vote +1

  13. Dave g. says:

    This severely misjudges wright’s ability to rack up the doubles.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  14. chiefs says:

    Mr. Met used PEDS in the 90s.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  15. ncarrington says:

    Does ZiPS def include positional adjustment?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  16. Josh says:

    Lucas Duda either can’t find a position, or is very sensitive about his homeless lifestyle.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  17. acerimusdux says:

    Looks like a 79-80 win team. That’s if I ignore Tovar, Puello, Flores, and Centeno as unlikely to get that playing time, and count only one of Syndergaard/Montero (both likely to get a half season). And of course ignore Harvey. Then only count the top 12 position players and top 12 pitchers.

    That leaves them likely in 4th place in the NL East (as a similar ad-hoc process puts the Phillies slightly better and the Marlins slightly worse, with the Braves winning 95 games).

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  18. JAMill says:

    I still expect this team to be .500, somewhere i the neighborhood of 81-84 wins. I’ll take the over on Wright’s WAR.

    I’m pleasantly surprised on Wilfredo Tovar’s projections, most likely on the strength of his defense. If Tejada falters he could end up being a nice in-season solution at SS.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  19. Jose says:

    Wow, that’s pretty negative on Jenry Mejia.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  20. sportznut says:

    It seems to me after putting up the back to back seasons Parnell has, his projection is considerably on the low side.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  21. Boris Chinchilla says:

    I thought I knew alot until I read the name…Sixto Lezcano.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  22. LongTimeFan says:

    I laugh at these projections as if machines play the game rather than people. Life is full uncertainty – that’s the way it is. There are some saber folks who simply cannot co-exist with this fact of life.

    -8 Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Colin says:

      Just go away

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • LongTimeFan says:

        Sure, I’ll go away and you rub your crystal ball in search of certainty in life that’s full of opposite in baseball and otherwise. Maybe you’re young and haven’t yet learned that lesson many times over.

        -6 Vote -1 Vote +1

        • SF 55 for life says:

          Nobody is claiming these projections are certain. Instead of insulting people who realize the value in making projections, why don’t you try reading into it more?

          Vote -1 Vote +1

  23. diehardmets says:

    That projection on Lagares seems too low. He put up almost 3 WAR last year in fewer at bats, and I would expect his bat to get better.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  24. Joe says:

    This is such a joke. I researched last years projections and they were way off with just about every player in baseball.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • SF 55 for life says:

      ^ Missed the point.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • LongTimeFan says:

        “SF 55 for life says:
        January 11, 2014 at 8:55 pm

        Nobody is claiming these projections are certain. Instead of insulting people who realize the value in making projections, why don’t you try reading into it more?”

        I suggest you direct your comment to Colin who made it personal in response to my first comment which targeted no one in particular. The value of making projections serves to typecast one way or the other, and clearly people are looking for certainty in an uncertain world. Projections soothe fans and those who use and promote it, but risk harm to those actually playing the game who have to perform in real life, or get limited opportunity based upon the past.

        As I said earlier, humans play the game, not machines. Projections would have limited and relegated tons of late bloomers to the bench or out of the game, while overhyped others with talent but poor mental makeup. Projections do harm if the powers-that-be rely on related assumptions. David Wright declines at 31 while RA Dickey should have hung it before ever becoming a Met.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

  25. Joe says:

    They had Chris Davis hitting 26 home runs and. Matt Harvey with a 3.80 ERA.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • stevenam says:

      I get Davis projected at 26 hr, given his previous track record, and although anyone with eyes can see that Harvey is an ace, his prior numbers are sufficiently limited that a statistical analysis is likely to be conservative.
      What is inexplicable, however, is David Wright at 4.4 WAR. That’s simply factually incorrect. Barring injury, he’s a mortal lock to surpass that number in a big way, and again, anyone with eyes can see that. On the field and by the historical numbers, Wright is obviously way way way better than that.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  26. Ed says:

    Thanks Joe for checking last year, what a joke all these projections are, not just this one. Give me a few hours and I could be just as accurate on the back of an envelope. Wrights’ regression is a joke, if attributable to 2011 then it is more of a joke. Granderson only 470 plate appearances, guess they project only one HBP broken hand this year. This is just more proof that any kid living in his parents basement with too much time on his hands and a semblance of technological ability can get publicity. Anyone taking this seriously needs to get out more often. Mets played .500 ball after 6/18 last year, I don’t need a computer to project they are an 80-84 win team.

    I mean, at least take the time to adjust for injuries, jeesh…don’t give me some stupid disclaimer, which should actually read “These projections were made by a simple average of the last few years stats and do not take into account the effect of prior injuries, the probability of future injuries, nor the probability of a player actually playing in the major leagues this year, simply because I am too lazy to actually read up on the players careers and use my brain to make an educated projection.” Lazy, sloppy and useless.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  27. Dylan says:

    Not that it matters, but I’m surprised how much worse Harvey’s projections are from last year. 2 FIP, 2.63 xFIP, 2.27 ERA, and I’d think he’d be expected to improve in his age 25 season.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  28. Shawn says:

    I see a different outcome.

    Two lineups
    Chris Young and Eric Young Jr platooning in right field

    Projections:
    Tejada – .278 AVG 2 HR 46 RBI .340 OBP
    Murphy – .290 AVG 14 HR 75 RBI .346 OBP
    Wright – .306 AVG 26 HR 91 RBI .390 OBP
    Granderson – .255 AVG 32 HR 105 RBI .335 OBP
    Davis – .275 AVG 28 HR 86 RBI .358 OBP
    C. Young – .260 16 HR 54 RBI .335 OBP
    d’Armand – .283 AVG 18 HR 78 RBI .348 OBP
    Lagares – .260 AVG 7 HR 56 RBI .330 OBP
    E. Young – .270 AVG 2 HR 49 RBI .348 OBP

    Lineup card one:

    Eric Young Jr.
    Daniel Murphy
    David Wright
    Curtis Granderson
    Travis d’Arnaud
    Ike Davis
    Juan Lagares
    Ruben Tejada
    Pitcher

    Lineup card two:

    Ruben Tejada
    Daniel Murphy
    David Wright
    Curtis Granderson
    Travis d’Arnaud
    Ike Davis
    Chris Young
    Juan Lagares
    Pitcher

    These are my predictions of Chris Young and Eric Young Jr if the Mets platoon half the games in order not to overexpose them. All stats are if everyone stays healthy. I also predict with this lineup that Wright, Murphy, Granderson and Chris Young all have 20 or more stolen bases each. Eric Young at 40+.

    These, in my eyes, would be the best lineups to compete with.

    Pitching:

    Colon – 3.35 ERA 13 W 7 L 1.05 WHIP
    Wheeler – 3.22 ERA 15 W 10 L 1.18 WHIP
    Niese – 3.40 ERA 16 W 9 L 1.11 WHIP
    Gee – 3.67 ERA 14 W 11 L 1.22 WHIP
    Mejia – 4.03 ERA 10 W 10 L 1.27 WHIP

    Any thoughts?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Dan says:

      I like your projections better.

      The prior protections never take into account “hot streaks”, playing with heart, pride, a potential unit that is clicking, in other words, the human aspects of the game.

      Players are not computer models. History, prior stats, provide only part of the picture.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Sd says:

      My thoughts unfortunately are that youre delusional. This is a 75-78 win team

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  29. Paul says:

    Chris: your predictions are super-optimistic, bordering on impossible.

    You have projected 640 RBI for those guys alone. That’s 4 runs per game,
    Not counting unearned runs, RBI by bench players or pitchers.

    Do you know how rare it is that all 5 starters are .500 or better. Even 95-win teams usually
    Have a pitcher with a losing record, and the Mets have no shot at 95 wins.

    I am a big Met fan and am trying to be optimistic, but even with these guys playing hard and having career years, I see 85 wins as the high water mark, with 75 wins just as likely

    Hope I’m wrong.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • stevenam says:

      I agree with Paul. I’m a hopeful Mets fan, but if you took 30 points off Chris’ projected ba of Tejada, Davis, and C. Young, that would be much more realistic, and his projections for obp are even less realistic. This lineup has way too many k’s and low obp to win consistently.
      On the pitching side, I’d love to see Wheeler at a 3.22 era, but with his walk numbers being what they are, I don’t anticipate that anytime soon. His whip is similarly too optimistic, as are many of Chris’ projections for the rotation.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  30. pft says:

    Wow, Rosy projections for Tejeda

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  31. teufelshuffle says:

    This looks a lot better than last year’s projections (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2013-zips-projections-new-york-mets/). Last year seven starting positions were projected to be 1 WAR or fewer and the bullpen was projected to be a combined 0. This year only 3 starters are projected to be below average (and Gee and Mejia are clearly underrated, and Davis is probably a sink hole but could go into beast mode at any time). If the Mets are good this year, it will be because they are more even, and deeper, than they have been since 2006 (though, granted, less talented at the top than the ’07 and ’08 clubs).

    Vote -1 Vote +1

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