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2014 ZiPS Projections – New York Mets

After having typically appeared in the entirely venerable pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections were released at FanGraphs last year. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the New York Mets. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Cincinnati / Cleveland / Detroit / Los Angeles NL / Miami / Minnesota / New York AL / Philadelphia / San Diego / Seattle / St. Louis / Tampa Bay.

Batters
A commitment of four years and $60 million was required to sign outfielder Curtis Granderson this offseason, while just one year and $7.25 million were sufficient for other outfielder Chris Young. Equally valuable, is more or less how ZiPS regards the pair, who are entering their age-33 and -30 seasons, respectively. Projected to save five runs as a center fielder, Young might reasonably be considered a candidate to save something like 10-15 runs given a full season in right field for New York.

It’s not unthinkable that certain readers will take exception to David Wright‘s projection of 4.4 zWAR, after the last two seasons recorded by that handsome Face of the Franchise. “Ridiculous,” one might say. “Pffft,” another is likely to add, probably covering his monitor in saliva at the same time. While unqualified to comment at length about Dan Szymborski’s precise methodology, the present author understands enough about these projections, generally, to know that some combination of BABIP regression, aging curve, and Wright’s decidedly less impressive 2011 campaign are likely the main influences here.

Pitchers
Mets supporters with a sensitive disposition might want to avoid inspecting the pitching projections for their club below — mostly, that is, because heroic and tragic Matt Harvey‘s name appears atop everyone else’s. ZiPS doesn’t know that he’s likely to miss all of 2014, just that he recorded a total of 178.1 innings in 2013 and was excellent while so doing.

More than has been the case with other clubs in this ongoing release of ZiPS, it’s the case with the Mets that the five pitchers most likely to begin the season in the rotation aren’t necessarily the five considered most qualified by Dan Szymborski’s computer math. Ranked solely by projected WAR, both Rafael Montero (1.5 zWAR) and Noah Syndergaard (1.4 zWAR) would merit a place in the opening-day rotation.

Bench/Prospects
The defensively homeless Lucas Duda has recorded no fewer than 347 plate appearances in each of the last three seasons — which is to say that, despite his absence from the depth-chart graphic below, he’s likely to play some part in the Mets 2014 campaign. In addition to the optimistic pitching projections for Montero and Syndergaard, the Metropolitans also appear to feature a few young field players with equally promising forecasts. Wilfredo Tovar, Wilmer Flores, and Cesar Puello are all projected to produce baseball wins at something approximating a league-average rate.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Mets, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Mets Depth

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
David Wright R 31 3B 550 72 133 27 4 19 74 17 5
Chris Young R 30 CF 461 56 95 24 2 16 54 13 5
Curtis Granderson L 33 CF 474 68 98 16 5 20 54 11 4
Juan Lagares R 25 CF 564 56 134 24 7 6 53 13 7
Daniel Murphy L 29 2B 576 71 152 32 3 9 70 14 3
Wilfredo Tovar R 22 SS 533 60 123 20 4 4 45 11 8
Travis d’Arnaud R 25 C 336 34 75 16 1 9 39 1 1
Cesar Puello R 23 RF 392 52 91 17 3 11 51 19 6
Ruben Tejada R 24 SS 572 57 133 27 2 2 38 5 3
Wilmer Flores R 22 2B 598 71 146 31 4 14 79 2 3
Ike Davis L 27 1B 445 55 89 20 0 18 62 2 1
Juan Centeno L 24 C 301 28 71 10 2 0 22 2 1
Kirk Nieuwenhuis L 26 CF 393 50 78 16 2 11 39 6 3
Anthony Recker R 30 C 287 32 58 13 1 9 34 2 2
Eric Young B 29 LF 460 56 101 19 6 2 26 32 6
Zach Lutz R 28 3B 399 45 81 16 2 10 43 0 1
Justin Turner R 29 3B 336 31 81 19 2 4 31 2 1
Lucas Duda L 28 LF 522 58 108 22 1 18 61 1 1
Matt den Dekker L 26 CF 454 50 94 16 6 9 48 13 5
Josh Satin R 29 1B 536 58 116 25 1 10 50 2 3
Andrew Brown R 29 RF 448 49 92 19 3 15 59 2 2
Josh Rodriguez R 29 3B 489 51 101 19 2 7 44 4 4
Omar Quintanilla L 32 SS 381 38 79 13 3 4 31 2 2
Landon Powell B 32 C 162 17 29 4 0 3 13 0 0
Reese Havens L 27 3B 226 22 40 8 1 5 19 1 1
Taylor Teagarden R 30 C 143 11 25 4 1 4 14 0 0
Brandon Allen L 28 1B 452 50 86 18 3 14 54 5 1
Allan Dykstra L 27 1B 445 45 75 14 0 13 48 1 1
Rick Ankiel L 34 RF 221 23 43 10 1 7 24 2 2
Jamie Hoffmann R 29 LF 467 47 100 21 2 9 49 8 2
Rhyne Hughes L 30 1B 300 31 59 14 1 8 34 2 2
Brian Bixler R 31 CF 330 32 62 11 1 3 22 7 3
Cory Vaughn R 25 LF 458 44 84 14 3 11 45 10 4

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP BA OBP SLG wOBA
David Wright 550 10.9% 19.3% .191 .316 .276 .358 .467 .354
Chris Young 461 10.2% 22.8% .186 .271 .232 .312 .418 .320
Curtis Granderson 474 10.5% 25.9% .207 .284 .237 .322 .444 .333
Juan Lagares 564 4.6% 21.6% .106 .318 .254 .291 .360 .282
Daniel Murphy 576 5.2% 12.5% .121 .310 .282 .320 .403 .316
Wilfredo Tovar 533 5.4% 12.0% .081 .281 .252 .301 .333 .278
Travis d’Arnaud 336 7.4% 24.1% .147 .303 .245 .307 .392 .306
Cesar Puello 392 4.3% 28.1% .156 .335 .253 .314 .409 .324
Ruben Tejada 572 6.1% 13.6% .071 .295 .255 .309 .326 .281
Wilmer Flores 598 4.7% 15.4% .146 .288 .263 .297 .409 .305
Ike Davis 445 12.8% 26.3% .192 .282 .232 .330 .424 .328
Juan Centeno 301 4.7% 15.6% .051 .306 .257 .295 .308 .264
Kirk Nieuwenhuis 393 8.9% 30.8% .151 .303 .222 .295 .373 .293
Anthony Recker 287 8.4% 27.9% .163 .287 .225 .294 .388 .296
Eric Young 460 8.3% 17.6% .091 .301 .246 .313 .337 .296
Zach Lutz 399 9.0% 30.1% .140 .310 .228 .302 .368 .296
Justin Turner 336 6.0% 14.0% .113 .297 .262 .316 .375 .304
Lucas Duda 522 11.5% 25.3% .173 .295 .239 .335 .412 .328
Matt den Dekker 454 5.7% 31.5% .132 .316 .225 .277 .357 .280
Josh Satin 536 10.6% 26.1% .121 .325 .245 .328 .366 .309
Andrew Brown 448 8.0% 28.3% .174 .289 .228 .293 .402 .302
Josh Rodriguez 489 8.0% 24.3% .099 .294 .228 .292 .327 .274
Omar Quintanilla 381 8.4% 20.5% .091 .285 .231 .298 .322 .269
Landon Powell 162 9.3% 26.5% .090 .263 .200 .280 .290 .255
Reese Havens 226 9.7% 34.1% .124 .292 .199 .283 .323 .274
Taylor Teagarden 143 6.3% 37.1% .137 .280 .189 .246 .326 .253
Brandon Allen 452 9.5% 28.5% .164 .273 .213 .290 .377 .294
Allan Dykstra 445 13.5% 36.6% .141 .305 .199 .317 .340 .298
Rick Ankiel 221 7.2% 33.5% .162 .295 .212 .273 .374 .280
Jamie Hoffmann 467 5.8% 20.8% .121 .276 .231 .281 .352 .280
Rhyne Hughes 300 6.7% 35.3% .145 .311 .214 .270 .359 .277
Brian Bixler 330 6.4% 30.0% .073 .294 .206 .263 .279 .242
Cory Vaughn 458 7.6% 31.9% .129 .285 .204 .282 .333 .278

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
David Wright 550 6.4 130 1 4.4 Bob Elliott
Chris Young 461 4.7 104 5 2.7 Dave Henderson
Curtis Granderson 474 5.1 113 -4 2.4 David Dellucci
Juan Lagares 564 3.8 82 10 2.0 Alexis Rios
Daniel Murphy 576 5.0 102 -8 1.8 Todd Walker
Wilfredo Tovar 533 3.5 79 5 1.7 Tim Foli
Travis d’Arnaud 336 4.3 95 -1 1.6 Ryan Doumit
Cesar Puello 392 4.9 102 3 1.6 Sixto Lezcano
Ruben Tejada 572 3.6 79 1 1.5 David Lamb
Wilmer Flores 598 4.4 97 -5 1.5 Michael Barrett
Ike Davis 445 4.9 111 2 1.4 Pat Dodson
Juan Centeno 301 3.3 70 4 1.1 Orlando Sanchez
Kirk Nieuwenhuis 393 3.8 87 0 1.0 Duane Walker
Anthony Recker 287 3.9 90 -3 1.0 Steve Yeager
Eric Young 460 4.3 83 3 0.9 Randy Winn
Zach Lutz 399 3.8 87 -3 0.7 Roy Smalley
Justin Turner 336 4.4 94 -4 0.7 Terry Tiffee
Lucas Duda 522 4.9 109 -11 0.7 Chris Duncan
Matt den Dekker 454 3.5 77 0 0.6 Herm Winningham
Josh Satin 536 4.2 95 0 0.5 Chris Shelton
Andrew Brown 448 4.1 93 -2 0.4 Larry Littleton
Josh Rodriguez 489 3.2 74 -1 0.3 Adam Morrissey
Omar Quintanilla 381 3.3 75 -3 0.3 Brian Guinn
Landon Powell 162 2.7 61 0 0.1 Jayhawk Owens
Reese Havens 226 3.0 70 0 0.1 Ryan Owens
Taylor Teagarden 143 2.7 60 -2 0.0 Jayhawk Owens
Brandon Allen 452 3.8 86 0 -0.1 Nate Murphy
Allan Dykstra 445 3.6 85 -1 -0.1 Josh Whitesell
Rick Ankiel 221 3.4 80 -1 -0.2 Dann Howitt
Jamie Hoffmann 467 3.6 77 -4 -0.6 Chip Childress
Rhyne Hughes 300 3.3 75 -1 -0.6 Doug Deeds
Brian Bixler 330 2.5 53 -2 -0.7 Damon Buford
Cory Vaughn 458 3.2 73 -4 -0.8 Mark Davidson

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player T Age G GS IP SO BB HR H R ER
Matt Harvey R 25 28 28 164.3 167 49 12 140 59 55
Zack Wheeler R 24 30 30 166.7 151 66 15 154 72 67
Bartolo Colon R 41 24 24 147.7 97 24 14 155 63 59
Jon Niese L 27 27 27 161.7 121 49 14 161 73 68
Rafael Montero R 23 25 25 138.7 110 33 14 134 62 58
Noah Syndergaard R 21 27 24 117.0 114 39 12 108 50 47
Dillon Gee R 28 26 25 156.3 115 44 18 158 76 71
Carlos Torres R 31 41 17 128.3 102 43 16 124 63 59
Jacob deGrom R 26 23 23 127.0 81 40 12 133 65 61
Bobby Parnell R 29 59 0 56.7 50 16 4 51 21 20
Jack Leathersich L 23 47 0 66.0 85 42 5 51 27 25
Jenrry Mejia R 24 21 13 74.7 53 29 7 77 37 35
Jeremy Hefner R 28 27 22 134.3 94 38 17 141 71 66
Aaron Harang R 36 24 24 137.3 103 48 17 140 73 68
Cory Mazzoni R 24 20 19 105.3 72 33 13 109 56 52
Jeff Walters R 26 49 0 56.3 46 18 5 53 24 22
Scott Atchison R 38 44 0 43.3 31 10 4 42 18 17
Vic Black R 26 56 0 61.7 68 32 5 52 27 25
Johan Santana L 35 9 9 44.7 37 15 6 45 24 22
Jeurys Familia R 24 21 11 60.3 50 31 7 60 32 30
Steven Matz L 23 17 17 76.0 62 42 9 75 42 39
Logan Verrett R 24 22 22 125.7 96 27 21 132 70 65
Erik Goeddel R 25 23 22 112.0 85 51 13 115 62 58
Pedro Feliciano L 37 29 0 20.0 16 7 2 19 10 9
Tim Byrdak L 40 35 0 21.3 20 13 2 19 11 10
Frank Francisco R 34 34 0 30.7 31 13 3 28 15 14
Scott Rice L 32 55 0 49.3 36 24 4 47 24 22
Gonzalez Germen R 26 65 0 79.7 69 28 9 77 39 36
Sean Henn L 33 38 0 46.7 34 28 3 45 24 22
Justin Hampson L 34 55 0 60.0 41 27 5 61 31 29
Daryl Thompson R 28 11 10 51.7 37 25 7 56 32 30
Matt Fox R 31 18 16 84.7 50 29 12 93 50 47
Josh Edgin L 27 58 0 57.0 49 27 6 55 30 28
David Aardsma R 32 31 0 31.0 27 17 4 30 18 17
Daisuke Matsuzaka R 33 20 19 93.7 70 47 13 97 58 54
Ryan Reid R 29 45 0 61.7 45 30 8 63 35 33
Robert Carson L 25 59 0 66.0 44 28 8 68 37 35

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Matt Harvey 164.3 682 24.5% 7.2% .286 3.01 3.07 82 84
Zack Wheeler 166.7 720 21.0% 9.2% .290 3.62 3.80 99 104
Bartolo Colon 147.7 622 15.6% 3.9% .289 3.60 3.54 98 97
Jon Niese 161.7 695 17.4% 7.0% .290 3.79 3.74 104 102
Rafael Montero 138.7 583 18.9% 5.7% .287 3.76 3.76 103 103
Noah Syndergaard 117.0 498 22.9% 7.8% .294 3.62 3.71 99 102
Dillon Gee 156.3 671 17.1% 6.6% .288 4.09 4.15 112 114
Carlos Torres 128.3 552 18.5% 7.8% .282 4.14 4.35 113 119
Jacob deGrom 127.0 554 14.6% 7.2% .293 4.32 4.19 118 115
Bobby Parnell 56.7 237 21.1% 6.7% .283 3.18 3.04 87 83
Jack Leathersich 66.0 291 29.2% 14.4% .295 3.41 3.56 93 97
Jenrry Mejia 74.7 330 16.1% 8.8% .294 4.22 4.23 115 116
Jeremy Hefner 134.3 582 16.2% 6.5% .290 4.42 4.33 121 118
Aaron Harang 137.3 600 17.2% 8.0% .287 4.46 4.31 122 118
Cory Mazzoni 105.3 458 15.7% 7.2% .287 4.44 4.47 121 122
Jeff Walters 56.3 240 19.2% 7.5% .288 3.51 3.79 96 104
Scott Atchison 43.3 182 17.0% 5.5% .278 3.53 3.54 97 97
Vic Black 61.7 269 25.3% 11.9% .294 3.65 3.65 100 100
Johan Santana 44.7 194 19.1% 7.7% .287 4.43 4.25 121 116
Jeurys Familia 60.3 272 18.4% 11.4% .293 4.48 4.64 122 127
Steven Matz 76.0 345 18.0% 12.2% .292 4.62 4.95 126 135
Logan Verrett 125.7 536 17.9% 5.0% .288 4.66 4.61 127 126
Erik Goeddel 112.0 502 16.9% 10.2% .294 4.66 4.64 127 127
Pedro Feliciano 20.0 86 18.6% 8.1% .283 4.05 3.90 111 107
Tim Byrdak 21.3 96 20.9% 13.6% .284 4.22 4.18 115 114
Frank Francisco 30.7 133 23.3% 9.8% .290 4.11 3.57 112 98
Scott Rice 49.3 219 16.4% 11.0% .283 4.01 4.27 110 117
Gonzalez Germen 79.7 344 20.1% 8.1% .289 4.07 4.02 111 110
Sean Henn 46.7 213 16.0% 13.1% .289 4.24 4.39 116 120
Justin Hampson 60.0 268 15.3% 10.1% .293 4.35 4.37 119 119
Daryl Thompson 51.7 236 15.7% 10.6% .299 5.23 5.10 143 140
Matt Fox 84.7 376 13.3% 7.7% .289 5.00 5.02 137 137
Josh Edgin 57.0 253 19.4% 10.7% .293 4.42 4.33 121 118
David Aardsma 31.0 140 19.3% 12.1% .292 4.94 4.63 135 127
Daisuke Matsuzaka 93.7 425 16.5% 11.1% .292 5.19 5.19 142 142
Ryan Reid 61.7 278 16.2% 10.8% .289 4.82 5.03 132 138
Robert Carson 66.0 294 15.0% 9.5% .286 4.77 4.76 130 130

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Matt Harvey 164.3 9.15 2.68 0.66 121 3.2 Bob Welch
Zack Wheeler 166.7 8.15 3.56 0.81 100 2.1 Matt Clement
Bartolo Colon 147.7 5.91 1.46 0.85 101 1.9 Freddie Fitzsimmons
Jon Niese 161.7 6.73 2.73 0.78 96 1.7 Steve Trout
Rafael Montero 138.7 7.14 2.14 0.91 96 1.5 Joe Blanton
Noah Syndergaard 117.0 8.77 3.00 0.92 100 1.4 Paul Wilson
Dillon Gee 156.3 6.62 2.53 1.04 89 1.0 Bill Laskey
Carlos Torres 128.3 7.16 3.02 1.12 88 0.5 Geremi Gonzalez
Jacob deGrom 127.0 5.74 2.83 0.85 84 0.5 Cha-Seung Baek
Bobby Parnell 56.7 7.94 2.54 0.63 114 0.5 Donnie Moore
Jack Leathersich 66.0 11.59 5.73 0.68 107 0.4 Dennys Reyes
Jenrry Mejia 74.7 6.39 3.49 0.84 86 0.3 C.J. Wilson
Jeremy Hefner 134.3 6.30 2.55 1.14 82 0.3 Larry Luebbers
Aaron Harang 137.3 6.75 3.15 1.11 81 0.3 Bobby Witt
Cory Mazzoni 105.3 6.15 2.82 1.11 82 0.2 Jonathan Johnson
Jeff Walters 56.3 7.35 2.88 0.80 103 0.2 Erik Bennett
Scott Atchison 43.3 6.44 2.08 0.83 103 0.2 Dave Pavlas
Vic Black 61.7 9.92 4.67 0.73 100 0.2 Brad Voyles
Johan Santana 44.7 7.45 3.02 1.21 82 0.1 Shawn Estes
Jeurys Familia 60.3 7.46 4.63 1.04 81 0.0 David Cone
Steven Matz 76.0 7.34 4.97 1.07 79 0.0 Dan Chergey
Logan Verrett 125.7 6.87 1.93 1.50 78 0.0 Mark DiFelice
Erik Goeddel 112.0 6.83 4.10 1.04 78 0.0 J.D. Durbin
Pedro Feliciano 20.0 7.20 3.15 0.90 90 0.0 Lee Guetterman
Tim Byrdak 21.3 8.45 5.49 0.85 86 -0.1 Mike Stanton
Frank Francisco 30.7 9.09 3.81 0.88 88 -0.1 Ricky Bottalico
Scott Rice 49.3 6.57 4.38 0.73 90 -0.1 Sean Fesh
Gonzalez Germen 79.7 7.79 3.16 1.02 89 -0.2 Jose Capellan
Sean Henn 46.7 6.55 5.40 0.58 86 -0.2 Marshall Bridges
Justin Hampson 60.0 6.15 4.05 0.75 83 -0.4 Mike Venafro
Daryl Thompson 51.7 6.44 4.35 1.22 69 -0.4 Jamie Brewington
Matt Fox 84.7 5.31 3.08 1.28 73 -0.4 Bob Milacki
Josh Edgin 57.0 7.74 4.26 0.95 82 -0.4 Kevin Tolar
David Aardsma 31.0 7.84 4.94 1.16 74 -0.4 Pete Walker
Daisuke Matsuzaka 93.7 6.72 4.51 1.25 70 -0.6 Erik Hanson
Ryan Reid 61.7 6.56 4.38 1.17 75 -0.7 Marty McLeary
Robert Carson 66.0 6.00 3.82 1.09 76 -0.7 Kevin Ohme

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.04 ERA and the NL having a 3.81 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.