2014 ZiPS Projections – Philadelphia Phillies

After having typically appeared in the entirely venerable pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections were released at FanGraphs last year. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Philadelphia Phillies. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Boston.

Batters
Citizens of Philadelphia will be glad to see that their club’s first baseman, Ryan Howard — to whom is still owed no less than $85 million — isn’t projected by ZiPS to produce only a single win like last year. What’ll be less encouraging is how it’s because he’s projected to produce more like zero wins in ca. 400 plate appearances.

Fortunately, the club profiles as generally average almost everywhere else — with a number of starters apparent candidates to improve upon their 2013 campaigns. Domonic Brown, Ben Revere, Jimmy Rollins, Carlos Ruiz: all four receive here projected WARs better than their actual WARs from this past season. Difficult to ignore, as well, is the very encouraging projection for Maikel Franco, who recorded a 30:70 walk-to-strikeout and 31 home runs in 581 plate appearances last season between High- and Double-A. Some question remains as to whether Franco will ultimately play third or first base in the majors. Conveniently, however, those appear to be the parent club’s greatest weaknesses at present.

Pitchers
Maybe a baby bird dying or another kind of baby animal dying: there’s little else as sad though, probably, as the sight of Roy Halladay in 2013, operating at something less than full capacity. Reports suggest that GM Ruben Amaro has been in contact with the right-hander this offseason. ZiPS isn’t particularly optimistic, however, about a return to form.

Remaining from the great rotation of 2010 and -11 are left-handers Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee, both of whom were pretty excellent in 2013 and probably will be again in 2014. As for the rest of the staff, that’s less certain. The $20 million invested in Jonathan Papelbon and Mike Adams for 2014 appears unlikely to provide a great return. After season-ending shoulder surgery, Adams himself is asking questions about whether his velocity will return.

As for right-handed Cuban emigre Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez, who signed a three-year, $12 million contract with Philadelphia at the end of August, he remains a mystery for the moment — or, at least until Szymborski responds to the email I’ve hurriedly sent him after realizing this morning that his (i.e. Gonzalez’s) projection (if one exists) had been omitted from the relevant spreadsheet.*

*UPDATE: Szymborski has informed me that there won’t be a Gonzalez projection for the moment, on account of how projecting from Cuban data is a different sort of enterprise.

Bench/Prospects
Besides the aforementioned Franco, it doesn’t appear as though Philadelphia is entirely bursting with major-league-ready talent. Cody Asche recorded his first 179 major-league plate appearances in 2013, and they — combined with his minor-league resume — suggest to ZiPS that the third baseman is something better than replacement level. Aaron Altherr‘s one-win projection is promising, it would seem. Left-hander Jesse Biddle, already ranked second among prospects in the organization this fall by Baseball America, also features a modestly encouraging projection.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Phillies, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Phils Depth

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Chase Utley L 35 2B 455 60 104 19 5 15 59 9 2
Carlos Ruiz R 35 C 417 43 102 22 0 9 51 2 0
Maikel Franco R 21 3B 602 81 147 31 4 24 92 2 2
Domonic Brown L 26 LF 517 66 127 25 4 24 74 9 5
Jimmy Rollins B 35 SS 592 72 137 27 3 12 52 20 5
Marlon Byrd R 36 RF 570 74 145 33 3 16 73 3 2
Ben Revere L 26 CF 530 62 142 13 6 1 31 34 10
Freddy Galvis B 24 2B 475 43 110 22 5 8 46 7 4
Erik Kratz R 34 C 292 31 64 14 0 12 40 1 0
Aaron Altherr R 23 CF 518 53 107 27 5 11 56 15 6
Cody Asche L 24 3B 614 67 140 28 4 15 70 7 4
Cameron Rupp R 25 C 383 36 79 16 1 8 40 1 1
Kelly Dugan L 23 RF 514 62 117 23 4 15 59 2 3
Cesar Hernandez B 24 2B 594 61 149 19 10 2 48 23 12
Tyson Gillies L 25 CF 310 34 68 11 5 5 21 8 4
Darin Ruf R 27 LF 626 70 137 31 1 20 74 1 1
Zach Collier L 23 CF 470 49 94 14 7 7 39 12 5
Clete Thomas L 30 CF 415 45 83 18 2 11 40 8 4
Tyler Henson R 26 3B 445 48 93 21 3 7 40 7 4
John Mayberry R 30 RF 442 54 99 24 1 14 52 6 2
Roger Bernadina L 30 RF 342 39 71 14 2 8 26 12 3
Laynce Nix L 33 RF 185 18 37 8 0 5 18 1 0
Sebastian Valle R 23 C 406 40 87 16 3 11 43 1 2
Ryan Howard L 34 1B 393 45 83 17 2 18 67 0 0
Kevin Frandsen R 32 1B 399 40 97 20 2 4 36 3 2
Tommy Joseph R 22 C 276 28 59 12 0 7 28 0 3
Pete Orr L 35 2B 388 37 84 16 5 5 31 11 5
Michael Martinez B 31 SS 301 32 67 9 3 4 29 5 3
Steve Susdorf L 28 RF 409 43 97 21 1 4 35 7 5
Matt Tolbert B 32 2B 261 25 56 8 2 1 15 4 4
Leandro Castro R 25 RF 482 52 115 24 3 9 51 13 6
Derrick Mitchell R 27 LF 408 42 84 18 1 11 44 11 5
Miguel Abreu R 29 3B 352 31 82 12 2 3 29 11 5
Cody Overbeck R 28 1B 515 53 111 23 1 18 63 1 2
Josh Fields R 31 1B 381 41 85 19 2 6 37 6 2

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP BA OBP SLG wOBA
Chase Utley 455 8.8% 14.3% .185 .274 .260 .338 .445 .340
Carlos Ruiz 417 7.2% 11.5% .132 .293 .274 .343 .406 .322
Maikel Franco 602 4.5% 17.3% .196 .278 .259 .296 .455 .325
Domonic Brown 517 8.3% 19.3% .225 .296 .272 .333 .497 .353
Jimmy Rollins 592 8.4% 12.8% .129 .277 .256 .319 .384 .310
Marlon Byrd 570 4.7% 19.5% .165 .320 .276 .325 .441 .334
Ben Revere 530 4.9% 10.0% .057 .320 .288 .326 .345 .300
Freddy Galvis 475 4.2% 18.9% .127 .295 .249 .285 .376 .283
Erik Kratz 292 6.8% 20.9% .189 .267 .242 .301 .430 .314
Aaron Altherr 518 6.4% 32.0% .148 .318 .226 .278 .373 .286
Cody Asche 614 6.2% 23.8% .142 .304 .246 .296 .388 .299
Cameron Rupp 383 6.0% 30.3% .119 .306 .223 .277 .342 .275
Kelly Dugan 514 5.3% 30.5% .160 .336 .246 .300 .406 .309
Cesar Hernandez 594 5.6% 19.5% .082 .338 .271 .312 .353 .291
Tyson Gillies 310 4.8% 24.5% .125 .304 .237 .283 .362 .283
Darin Ruf 626 8.3% 27.8% .167 .316 .246 .318 .413 .321
Zach Collier 470 6.6% 27.4% .115 .298 .221 .283 .336 .275
Clete Thomas 415 7.0% 30.4% .144 .293 .217 .275 .361 .280
Tyler Henson 445 6.7% 32.1% .119 .333 .230 .287 .348 .280
John Mayberry 442 6.8% 22.4% .167 .287 .243 .299 .410 .309
Roger Bernadina 342 7.9% 24.6% .137 .292 .231 .301 .368 .295
Laynce Nix 185 7.6% 28.6% .135 .283 .218 .276 .353 .273
Sebastian Valle 406 3.2% 28.3% .142 .288 .225 .250 .368 .266
Ryan Howard 393 8.9% 30.5% .215 .301 .238 .310 .453 .318
Kevin Frandsen 399 3.5% 9.5% .098 .284 .264 .311 .362 .295
Tommy Joseph 276 5.1% 26.4% .128 .289 .229 .272 .357 .273
Pete Orr 388 4.1% 20.4% .113 .281 .231 .270 .343 .268
Michael Martinez 301 4.7% 16.9% .096 .278 .239 .279 .336 .267
Steve Susdorf 409 6.6% 19.6% .094 .316 .259 .313 .353 .294
Matt Tolbert 261 6.1% 16.9% .063 .282 .235 .284 .298 .252
Leandro Castro 482 2.7% 18.9% .124 .292 .250 .273 .374 .282
Derrick Mitchell 408 6.1% 27.9% .141 .287 .223 .275 .364 .282
Miguel Abreu 352 2.0% 13.9% .074 .274 .243 .263 .317 .255
Cody Overbeck 515 5.0% 30.7% .164 .302 .231 .276 .395 .292
Josh Fields 381 6.3% 28.1% .116 .326 .241 .289 .358 .285

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Chase Utley 455 5.6 113 2 2.8 Lou Whitaker
Carlos Ruiz 417 5.2 105 2 2.8 Mike Lieberthal
Maikel Franco 602 4.9 102 -1 2.4 Ed Sprague
Domonic Brown 517 6.1 124 -3 2.3 Harold Baines
Jimmy Rollins 592 4.6 92 -3 2.1 Billy Rogell
Marlon Byrd 570 5.3 108 2 2.0 Brian Jordan
Ben Revere 530 4.6 85 3 1.8 Alex Sanchez
Freddy Galvis 475 3.8 80 7 1.3 Ricky Bell
Erik Kratz 292 4.7 98 -3 1.3 Joe Oliver
Aaron Altherr 518 3.7 77 5 1.1 Franklin Gutierrez
Cody Asche 614 4.1 86 -2 1.1 Rick Schu
Cameron Rupp 383 3.3 69 1 0.8 Gilberto Reyes
Kelly Dugan 514 4.3 92 1 0.7 Myron White
Cesar Hernandez 594 4.1 82 -3 0.7 Garry Templeton
Tyson Gillies 310 3.6 76 4 0.7 Herm Winningham
Darin Ruf 626 4.7 99 -7 0.6 Joe Vitiello
Zach Collier 470 3.4 69 2 0.4 Alexander Presley
Clete Thomas 415 3.4 73 1 0.3 Nick Gorneault
Tyler Henson 445 3.5 73 0 0.3 David Howard
John Mayberry 442 4.4 92 -3 0.3 Mendy Lopez
Roger Bernadina 342 4.1 82 1 0.3 Ted Wood
Laynce Nix 185 3.4 71 5 0.2 Dann Howitt
Sebastian Valle 406 3.1 67 -2 0.2 Sean Mulligan
Ryan Howard 393 5.0 106 -4 0.2 Lee Stevens
Kevin Frandsen 399 4.1 84 4 0.1 Wally Roettger
Tommy Joseph 276 3.1 71 -4 0.0 Alvin Colina
Pete Orr 388 3.3 67 1 0.0 Denny Doyle
Michael Martinez 301 3.3 68 -2 -0.1 Pablo Martinez
Steve Susdorf 409 3.9 82 -2 -0.3 Scott Livingstone
Matt Tolbert 261 2.8 60 -3 -0.4 Frank Kellner
Leandro Castro 482 3.7 75 0 -0.5 Robert Perez
Derrick Mitchell 408 3.5 74 -1 -0.5 Dave Elliott
Miguel Abreu 352 3.0 58 -1 -0.5 Juan Sosa
Cody Overbeck 515 3.8 81 0 -0.6 Ryan Mulhern
Josh Fields 381 3.7 76 -2 -0.6 Pat Sheridan

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player T Age G GS IP SO BB HR H R ER
Cliff Lee L 35 28 28 198.3 195 31 20 180 72 67
Cole Hamels L 30 31 31 209.3 194 46 21 189 82 77
Kyle Kendrick R 29 31 24 151.0 98 40 17 158 76 71
Roy Halladay R 37 20 20 118.7 98 34 14 116 58 54
Jonathan Pettibone R 23 24 24 135.0 85 47 12 142 67 63
Jesse Biddle L 22 27 27 133.3 127 74 13 123 67 63
Jonathan Papelbon R 33 59 0 59.3 67 13 6 51 21 20
Antonio Bastardo L 28 57 0 48.7 62 22 5 37 18 17
Mike Adams R 35 44 0 39.7 38 13 4 36 17 16
Justin De Fratus R 26 59 0 62.0 54 26 5 58 29 27
Michael Stutes R 27 36 0 40.7 33 19 4 39 20 19
Jake Diekman L 27 65 0 62.0 63 44 5 56 31 29
Kyle Simon R 23 41 5 78.7 44 27 8 86 43 40
Joe Savery L 28 38 0 43.7 35 18 5 43 22 21
Jeremy Horst L 28 43 0 49.7 40 21 5 51 26 24
John Lannan L 29 23 23 124.7 68 55 14 141 75 70
Adam Morgan L 24 22 22 106.0 74 41 15 115 64 60
Cesar Jimenez L 29 45 1 67.0 50 36 6 68 36 34
Mauricio Robles L 25 55 0 62.0 56 51 4 57 33 31
Shawn Camp R 38 51 0 52.0 36 15 7 56 29 27
Luis Garcia R 27 58 0 69.3 54 36 8 68 37 35
Chad Durbin R 36 39 0 38.3 33 16 6 40 22 21
B.J. Rosenberg R 28 44 10 88.3 65 45 11 93 52 49
Phillippe Aumont R 25 55 0 56.3 55 48 4 52 32 30
Mike MacDougal R 37 40 0 39.0 29 28 5 41 26 24
Austin Wright L 24 26 19 108.0 75 62 15 115 70 65
Zach Miner R 32 31 10 70.7 38 38 9 81 47 44
Ethan Martin R 24 30 21 116.3 95 87 16 122 79 74
Greg Smith L 30 23 18 107.3 46 41 18 131 75 70
Tom Cochran L 31 23 18 92.0 53 67 14 105 70 65
Rob Rasmussen L 25 26 24 122.0 81 77 21 138 89 83

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Cliff Lee 198.3 805 24.2% 3.8% .286 3.04 3.04 79 79
Cole Hamels 209.3 863 22.4% 5.3% .282 3.31 3.32 86 86
Kyle Kendrick 151.0 651 15.1% 6.2% .288 4.23 4.17 110 108
Roy Halladay 118.7 506 19.4% 6.8% .288 4.10 4.02 106 105
Jonathan Pettibone 135.0 594 14.2% 7.9% .293 4.20 4.19 109 109
Jesse Biddle 133.3 597 21.4% 12.4% .292 4.25 4.42 111 115
Jonathan Papelbon 59.3 242 27.6% 5.3% .293 3.03 2.89 79 75
Antonio Bastardo 48.7 205 30.4% 10.8% .282 3.14 3.26 82 85
Mike Adams 39.7 168 22.8% 7.5% .284 3.63 3.63 94 94
Justin De Fratus 62.0 270 20.1% 9.6% .296 3.92 3.93 102 102
Michael Stutes 40.7 180 18.3% 10.6% .287 4.20 4.32 109 112
Jake Diekman 62.0 285 22.2% 15.3% .299 4.21 4.22 109 110
Kyle Simon 78.7 349 12.7% 7.8% .295 4.58 4.52 119 117
Joe Savery 43.7 192 18.3% 9.2% .289 4.33 4.40 112 114
Jeremy Horst 49.7 221 18.1% 9.7% .299 4.35 4.34 113 113
John Lannan 124.7 570 12.0% 9.7% .298 5.05 4.99 131 130
Adam Morgan 106.0 474 15.7% 8.6% .296 5.09 4.97 132 129
Cesar Jimenez 67.0 305 16.6% 11.8% .297 4.57 4.61 119 120
Mauricio Robles 62.0 294 19.0% 17.4% .295 4.50 4.70 117 122
Shawn Camp 52.0 227 15.8% 6.6% .293 4.67 4.39 121 114
Luis Garcia 69.3 312 17.3% 11.4% .287 4.54 4.80 118 125
Chad Durbin 38.3 171 19.4% 9.4% .297 4.93 4.59 128 119
B.J. Rosenberg 88.3 403 16.0% 11.1% .297 4.99 4.96 130 129
Phillippe Aumont 56.3 269 20.6% 17.9% .304 4.79 4.95 125 129
Mike MacDougal 39.0 186 15.7% 15.1% .296 5.54 5.47 144 142
Austin Wright 108.0 501 15.0% 12.4% .293 5.42 5.48 141 142
Zach Miner 70.7 331 11.4% 11.6% .297 5.60 5.56 146 144
Ethan Martin 116.3 558 17.0% 15.5% .303 5.72 5.71 149 148
Greg Smith 107.3 493 9.4% 8.2% .297 5.87 5.77 153 150
Tom Cochran 92.0 449 11.7% 15.0% .297 6.36 6.46 165 168
Rob Rasmussen 122.0 581 14.0% 13.3% .297 6.12 6.22 159 162

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Cliff Lee 198.3 8.83 1.39 0.92 127 4.5 Jeff Fassero
Cole Hamels 209.3 8.33 1.99 0.91 117 4.1 Terry Mulholland
Kyle Kendrick 151.0 5.85 2.40 0.99 91 1.2 Steve Finch
Roy Halladay 118.7 7.43 2.60 1.05 94 1.2 Milt Wilcox
Jonathan Pettibone 135.0 5.64 3.14 0.77 92 1.2 Cha-Seung Baek
Jesse Biddle 133.3 8.60 4.99 0.91 91 1.1 David West
Jonathan Papelbon 59.3 10.12 1.95 0.88 127 0.8 Rafael Betancourt
Antonio Bastardo 48.7 11.54 4.10 0.89 123 0.6 Will Ohman
Mike Adams 39.7 8.65 2.86 0.99 106 0.2 Donn Pall
Justin De Fratus 62.0 7.91 3.76 0.77 98 0.1 John Stuper
Michael Stutes 40.7 7.29 4.22 0.89 92 -0.1 Joel Moore
Jake Diekman 62.0 9.20 6.33 0.68 92 -0.1 Greg McCarthy
Kyle Simon 78.7 5.06 3.10 0.89 84 -0.1 Jack Cassel
Joe Savery 43.7 7.24 3.65 1.07 89 -0.1 Sean Fesh
Jeremy Horst 49.7 7.24 3.88 0.94 89 -0.2 Matt Dunbar
John Lannan 124.7 4.93 3.98 1.00 76 -0.2 Jimmy Anderson
Adam Morgan 106.0 6.30 3.44 1.31 76 -0.2 Brian Barkley
Cesar Jimenez 67.0 6.78 4.84 0.83 85 -0.3 Tom Doyle
Mauricio Robles 62.0 8.13 7.45 0.56 86 -0.3 Scott Wiggins
Shawn Camp 52.0 6.22 2.59 1.24 83 -0.4 Boom-Boom Beck
Luis Garcia 69.3 7.00 4.63 1.02 85 -0.4 Jake Robbins
Chad Durbin 38.3 7.78 3.78 1.36 78 -0.4 Ben Weber
B.J. Rosenberg 88.3 6.58 4.54 1.09 77 -0.4 Marty McLeary
Phillippe Aumont 56.3 8.84 7.67 0.71 81 -0.5 Bill Bene
Mike MacDougal 39.0 6.74 6.49 1.13 70 -0.7 Ben Weber
Austin Wright 108.0 6.28 5.19 1.23 71 -0.7 Matt Jarvis
Zach Miner 70.7 4.80 4.88 1.18 69 -0.8 Hal Elliott
Ethan Martin 116.3 7.33 6.71 1.21 67 -1.2 Willie Hardwick
Greg Smith 107.3 3.89 3.40 1.48 66 -1.3 Dave Gassner
Tom Cochran 92.0 5.15 6.60 1.39 61 -1.6 Dan Smith
Rob Rasmussen 122.0 6.01 5.72 1.58 63 -1.8 Tom Singer

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.04 ERA and the NL having a 3.81 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.



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Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
Mike
Guest
Mike
2 years 8 months ago

I don’t care how many times ZiPS predicts Revere will hit a HR, I’m taking the under.

James
Guest
James
2 years 8 months ago

That’s a wild Franco projection. Does anyone really think he’d be that successful if he played in the majors next year?

Hunter
Guest
Hunter
2 years 8 months ago

An OBP under 300 with mid 20 s HR? That’s ok, but nothing to write home about. You must think Franco is crap to think that’s wildly optimistic.

James
Guest
James
2 years 8 months ago

It isn’t far off from the projection for Brown. For a 21 year old without a full season in the high minors? Yeah that’s optimistic.

BobbyS
Guest
BobbyS
2 years 8 months ago

It’s 22 OPS+ away from Brown, pretty significant difference.

It seems reasonably optimistic, but not surprisingly so.

champion88
Member
champion88
2 years 8 months ago

22 OPS points isn’t really that significant. That could be 11 points of batting average and 11 points of OBP.

There isn’t a significant difference between a .270 hitter and .280 hitter.

LTG
Guest
LTG
2 years 8 months ago

OPS+ =/= OPS. Difference in OPS is ~.080, which is significant. And, yes, I was surprised by the Franco projection.

champion88
Member
champion88
2 years 8 months ago

Not everyone’s be all and end all is OBP.

A lot of teams would take 25 HR with a .290 OBP.

kdm628496
Member
kdm628496
2 years 8 months ago

seems about right to me. he doesn’t take walks which will hinder him at the top level, but he has see-ball hit-ball skills and enough power to hit 24 bombs. i might argue that his defense would be worse than -1, but his projected offensive production isn’t unreasonable.

LTG
Guest
LTG
2 years 8 months ago

I’m sure any rigorous projection system can be described as reasonable. But Franco has yet to hit above AA and only spent half of last season there. You’re right about his potential as an MLBer, but why think that his potential is to be that player next season

Matthew
Member
Member
2 years 8 months ago

Boom-Boom Beck is a hell of a baseball name.

Ivan Grushenko
Guest
Ivan Grushenko
2 years 8 months ago

This looks like the year the Phillies will finally admit they’re not very good.

Ruben Amaro Jr.
Guest
Ruben Amaro Jr.
2 years 8 months ago

NEVER!
Howard, Rollins, Chooch, Utley and Hamels 4EVA!

hawkeyecub
Guest
hawkeyecub
2 years 8 months ago

I wonder what Howard’s WAR would be if the Phillies ponied up $2 million for Jeff Baker to be his platoon partner (shielding against the negative value of Howard against LHP)?

champion88
Member
champion88
2 years 8 months ago

I don’t think Ryan Howard would accept a role of being part of a platoon, but I think he could have a lot more value that way.

LTG
Guest
LTG
2 years 8 months ago

Phils were already essentially platooning him last season in order to give him rest days. He still needs the rest so why not against LHP?

hk
Guest
hk
2 years 8 months ago

What do you mean he wouldn’t accept it? What’s his alternative, retire and leave $85M on the table?

Loblaw
Guest
Loblaw
2 years 6 months ago

a $25M version of Matt Stairs?

Nik
Guest
Nik
2 years 8 months ago

What for, Darin Ruf is better for league minimum.

dovif
Guest
dovif
2 years 8 months ago

At best this is a 70 win team

LTG
Guest
LTG
2 years 8 months ago

All of the projections I’ve read and my own peg the team to be ~75 win team. So, at best (like where everyone stays healthy and hits their higher percentile projections) 85-90 wins. That’s baseball.

dovif
Guest
dovif
2 years 8 months ago

LTG

I have seen no publication that thinks this team will be better next year, then the season just passed, and by pythagoran analysis, this team was very lucky last year, if lucky was not involved this was a 65 win team. Another year of an aging and injury prone cast of Utley, Howard, Rollin, Ruiz, and continue decline of Lee. I actually thinsk the projection is very optimistic for all of them.

LTG
Guest
LTG
2 years 8 months ago

Just look at the steamer projections and do a little addition for replacement level and you get to ~75. Last year’s team was projected to be about the same as that. The 2013 Phillies played worse than their projections in part because of injuries to starters and in part because lots of players played worse than projected. In other words, they slid down their pre-season projection scale into the lower percentiles. We shouldn’t just cite last year’s pythag as a projection for the upcoming season, even if the team’s constitution has barely changed. We should expect some regression toward the mean and use models to make projections.

tl;dr – they don’t have to be better than last year’s talent to win 75+; they just have to be better than last year’s on-field performance.

Peanus Steenblatter
Guest
Peanus Steenblatter
2 years 8 months ago

Any stat like WAR that says Ryan Howard is “replacement” is a stat not to be taken seriously.

Lucas
Guest
Lucas
2 years 8 months ago

Maikel Franco can do better than that.

pounded clown
Member
pounded clown
2 years 7 months ago

so much depends
on an overpaid wheelbarrow
dusty with rust
besides his shitty lefty splits

pounded clown
Member
pounded clown
2 years 7 months ago

aww shit.

*beside

BoKnows
Member
BoKnows
2 years 7 months ago

Yeah… Roy retired about a month before this was written, so no I do not expect him to do better next season.

BoKnows
Member
BoKnows
2 years 7 months ago

Never mind, wrong month.

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