2014 ZiPS Projections – San Diego Padres

After having typically appeared in the entirely venerable pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections were released at FanGraphs last year. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the San Diego Padres. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Cleveland / Minnesota / Philadelphia / St. Louis.

Batters
San Diego’s leader by WAR in 2013 was Chris Denorfia, with a 3.9 mark — for which reason it feels odd to view him as part-time/platoon-type player entering 2014. Yet, that’s how the author has classified him in the depth-chart graphic below and how ZiPS seemingly regards him, as well — insofar, that is, as it doesn’t foresee the outfielder duplicating his career-best season, at all.

Of some difficulty with regard to understanding the 2014 iteration of the Padres is estimating precisely how playing time will work out between the team’s two catchers. ZiPS’ computer math suggests that Yasmani Grandal is probably the second- or third-best player on the whole club. That said, he underwent surgery on his ACL in August that could require up to a year of recovery. Fortunately for San Diego, Nick Hundley himself isn’t a particularly significant downgrade. Still, that’s a lot of talent to possess at one position while others could certainly afford to be upgraded.

Pitchers
It’s absolutely a credit to left-hander Eric Stults that, after pitching in part of six major-league seasons, he recorded his first 200-inning season — and, simultaneously, his first 100-inning season — at age 33. It’s less of a credit to the Padres rotation, probably, though, that left-hander Eric Stults — who notably recorded his first 200-inning season at age 33 — was the club’s pitching WAR leader in 2013. Promising moments from both Andrew Cashner and Tyson Ross — plus the signing of Josh Johnson — suggest that there’s some reason for optimism here, but the margin for error is pretty small.

One of the club’s bullpen fixtures, Luke Gregerson, departed in a trade to Oakland recently for outfielder Seth Smith — whose projection is absent from those included below, the author has literally just noticed while typing these words. Otherwise, the relief corps is largely unchanged since the end of 2013, including closer Huston Street other serviceable pieces like Brad Boxberger, Dale Thayer, Nick Vincent.

Bench/Prospects
The Padres system certainly isn’t without talent. Catcher Austin Hedges remains one of the more promising prospects in all of baseball. Right-hander Matthew Wisler, as well, exhibited above-average stuff en route to an excellent year at Double-A in just his age-20 season. Unfortunately, there isn’t a lot of premium talent ready to produce at the major leagues. In part, this is due to injuries which have stalled the development of Casey Kelly, Rymer Liriano, and Joe Wieland — all of whom could reasonably have had some kind of role with the 2013 club.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Padres, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Padres Depth

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Chase Headley B 30 3B 595 71 133 30 2 16 69 11 4
Jedd Gyorko R 25 2B 568 75 133 28 0 20 72 4 2
Yasmani Grandal B 25 C 338 40 72 17 0 7 36 0 0
Everth Cabrera B 27 SS 469 60 104 17 5 3 32 38 9
Carlos Quentin R 31 LF 386 51 86 23 0 16 55 0 1
Cameron Maybin R 27 CF 380 53 84 13 4 8 37 19 5
Nick Hundley R 30 C 353 34 74 16 2 9 43 1 2
Chris Denorfia R 33 RF 440 60 107 18 3 8 38 10 3
Will Venable L 31 RF 489 66 110 20 7 15 54 21 5
Rene Rivera R 30 C 318 30 69 15 1 5 29 0 1
Jace Peterson L 24 SS 557 68 113 15 7 3 44 32 12
Yonder Alonso L 27 1B 524 49 127 25 1 10 62 6 2
Austin Hedges R 21 C 383 41 79 21 0 4 35 9 10
Logan Forsythe R 27 2B 379 47 77 13 3 7 34 9 2
Reymond Fuentes L 23 RF 535 62 113 22 3 5 42 28 9
Jesus Guzman R 30 1B 399 45 90 22 1 10 55 5 2
Tommy Medica R 26 1B 405 49 84 21 2 13 54 2 2
Alexi Amarista L 25 CF 489 53 114 22 6 5 49 9 5
Gregorio Petit R 29 SS 507 48 107 20 1 5 40 4 2
Ronny Cedeno R 31 SS 343 31 74 14 3 3 28 4 3
James Darnell R 27 LF 259 28 54 12 1 7 30 1 1
Kyle Blanks R 27 RF 307 38 63 14 1 9 30 2 1
Jonathan Galvez R 23 2B 459 54 99 21 2 5 41 15 5
Cory Spangenberg L 23 2B 536 55 116 17 7 3 43 22 12
Jesus Merchan R 33 3B 214 20 51 8 1 1 16 1 2
Travis Buck L 30 LF 192 21 40 11 1 3 19 1 1
Chris Robinson R 30 C 253 22 57 10 0 1 19 1 2
Cody Decker R 27 1B 445 47 81 19 2 16 54 1 1
Mark Kotsay L 38 LF 153 9 34 5 0 1 15 0 2
Yeison Asencio R 24 RF 525 53 125 26 5 5 52 4 5
Rymer Liriano R 23 RF 446 45 88 19 4 6 38 20 11
Ben Francisco R 32 LF 252 21 50 10 1 3 20 3 1

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP BA OBP SLG wOBA
Chase Headley 595 10.6% 22.9% .157 .313 .254 .339 .411 .329
Jedd Gyorko 568 6.9% 22.9% .168 .301 .254 .308 .423 .318
Yasmani Grandal 338 12.4% 23.4% .130 .313 .247 .343 .377 .319
Everth Cabrera 469 9.0% 20.9% .087 .320 .250 .321 .337 .299
Carlos Quentin 386 8.5% 16.6% .213 .272 .258 .350 .471 .357
Cameron Maybin 380 7.9% 21.8% .131 .299 .244 .310 .375 .306
Nick Hundley 353 6.8% 24.4% .146 .284 .231 .290 .377 .286
Chris Denorfia 440 7.5% 15.2% .119 .300 .266 .321 .386 .312
Will Venable 489 7.0% 23.5% .177 .298 .247 .304 .424 .316
Rene Rivera 318 5.0% 20.8% .108 .282 .234 .275 .342 .268
Jace Peterson 557 8.4% 17.6% .076 .275 .227 .297 .304 .273
Yonder Alonso 524 9.0% 15.8% .121 .306 .270 .336 .391 .316
Austin Hedges 383 5.7% 21.7% .094 .281 .225 .278 .319 .261
Logan Forsythe 379 9.8% 24.0% .119 .294 .230 .315 .349 .298
Reymond Fuentes 535 8.2% 25.6% .090 .321 .237 .309 .328 .288
Jesus Guzman 399 8.0% 21.6% .149 .300 .249 .314 .398 .312
Tommy Medica 405 8.1% 28.1% .177 .298 .232 .306 .409 .314
Alexi Amarista 489 4.7% 14.3% .108 .284 .251 .287 .358 .279
Gregorio Petit 507 5.3% 18.7% .079 .275 .229 .275 .308 .258
Ronny Cedeno 343 5.8% 22.7% .092 .302 .236 .284 .328 .264
James Darnell 259 8.9% 21.6% .152 .276 .234 .306 .385 .302
Kyle Blanks 307 7.5% 29.6% .155 .302 .227 .296 .383 .299
Jonathan Galvez 459 6.1% 25.3% .095 .311 .235 .291 .330 .278
Cory Spangenberg 536 5.0% 22.6% .081 .304 .235 .279 .316 .260
Jesus Merchan 214 3.7% 11.2% .064 .281 .252 .283 .317 .262
Travis Buck 192 5.7% 20.3% .125 .272 .227 .277 .352 .276
Chris Robinson 253 2.8% 17.8% .054 .287 .238 .267 .293 .245
Cody Decker 445 8.1% 35.3% .176 .279 .201 .270 .377 .284
Mark Kotsay 153 7.2% 13.1% .057 .275 .243 .296 .300 .262
Yeison Asencio 525 3.2% 13.5% .102 .280 .250 .276 .352 .273
Rymer Liriano 446 5.8% 29.6% .109 .296 .213 .267 .322 .259
Ben Francisco 252 7.5% 20.6% .092 .269 .219 .283 .311 .267

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Chase Headley 595 5.1 114 4 3.9 Corey Koskie
Jedd Gyorko 568 4.7 106 -3 2.5 Bret Boone
Yasmani Grandal 338 4.6 106 -1 2.2 Jarrod Saltalamacchia
Everth Cabrera 469 4.4 89 -2 2.0 Freddie Patek
Carlos Quentin 386 5.9 132 -5 1.9 Gary Roenicke
Cameron Maybin 380 4.4 95 2 1.8 Calvin Murray
Nick Hundley 353 3.7 89 3 1.7 Chris Widger
Chris Denorfia 440 4.7 101 4 1.6 Mike Kreevich
Will Venable 489 4.9 105 -1 1.5 Michael Tucker
Rene Rivera 318 3.3 75 5 1.3 Dave Parrish
Jace Peterson 557 3.3 73 0 1.2 Spike Owen
Yonder Alonso 524 4.9 107 0 1.2 John Kruk
Austin Hedges 383 2.8 70 4 1.1 Ryan Luzinski
Logan Forsythe 379 4.0 90 -4 0.9 Dave Edler
Reymond Fuentes 535 3.8 82 3 0.8 Mike Neill
Jesus Guzman 399 4.5 102 0 0.7 Marty Cordova
Tommy Medica 405 4.3 102 0 0.7 Bucky Jacobsen
Alexi Amarista 489 3.7 83 -3 0.6 Mark Kramer
Gregorio Petit 507 3.0 66 1 0.5 Juan Castro
Ronny Cedeno 343 3.2 75 -1 0.4 Eddie Zosky
James Darnell 259 4.1 96 -2 0.3 Adan Millan
Kyle Blanks 307 4.0 93 -3 0.2 Jeff Baker
Jonathan Galvez 459 3.5 77 -6 0.2 Brad Wellman
Cory Spangenberg 536 3.1 70 -1 0.1 Juan Bell
Jesus Merchan 214 3.1 71 -1 0.1 Doug Flynn
Travis Buck 192 3.4 79 -1 -0.1 Jeff Wetherby
Chris Robinson 253 2.6 60 -4 -0.2 Hector Ortiz
Cody Decker 445 3.4 83 0 -0.2 Danny Peoples
Mark Kotsay 153 2.9 71 -1 -0.4 Brian Jordan
Yeison Asencio 525 3.4 78 0 -0.4 Simon Rosario
Rymer Liriano 446 2.9 68 2 -0.6 Cesar Hernandez
Ben Francisco 252 3.1 70 -4 -0.7 Chris Pritchett

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player T Age G GS IP SO BB HR H R ER
Ian Kennedy R 29 30 30 190.7 174 58 20 173 79 74
Andrew Cashner R 27 33 21 141.0 110 39 10 126 54 50
Eric Stults L 34 26 24 148.0 95 38 12 149 66 62
Josh Johnson R 30 20 20 114.7 106 38 10 107 49 46
Cory Luebke L 29 12 12 71.3 71 22 6 61 27 25
Burch Smith R 24 28 26 128.7 120 43 15 120 59 55
Matt Andriese R 24 27 25 132.3 87 41 10 133 61 57
Tyson Ross R 27 31 19 122.7 98 51 9 115 56 52
Tim Stauffer R 32 32 14 109.7 79 35 10 106 49 46
Luke Gregerson R 30 69 0 63.0 57 19 5 54 22 21
Brad Boxberger R 26 60 0 72.3 88 36 6 57 27 25
Matthew Wisler R 21 26 26 124.0 92 46 12 123 62 58
Nick Vincent R 27 66 0 68.0 65 24 6 59 27 25
Joe Wieland R 24 9 9 44.0 39 14 5 40 20 19
Huston Street R 30 54 0 50.3 49 12 6 43 19 18
Kevin Quackenbush R 25 53 0 57.0 59 29 4 48 24 22
Casey Kelly R 24 12 12 63.0 45 19 6 69 32 30
Dale Thayer R 33 65 0 63.3 54 17 6 59 27 25
Fautino De Los Santos R 28 28 0 34.0 34 16 3 30 14 13
Robbie Erlin L 23 24 23 116.7 85 42 14 119 61 57
Arturo Lopez L 31 31 12 75.7 59 34 8 75 39 36
Sean O’Sullivan R 26 27 21 134.3 72 49 12 144 71 66
Anthony Bass R 26 35 16 113.0 78 39 12 116 59 55
Donn Roach R 24 24 23 119.7 57 49 9 129 65 61
Chris Rearick L 26 45 0 55.3 45 24 5 53 27 25
Juan Oramas L 24 13 13 56.0 47 29 7 56 32 30
Jason Marquis R 35 19 19 113.0 71 47 15 119 63 59
Clayton Richard L 30 20 19 112.7 58 29 16 123 63 59
Adys Portillo R 22 13 13 54.7 39 42 5 54 33 31
Clay Zavada L 30 23 0 26.7 17 15 3 28 16 15
Eddie Bonine R 33 17 13 72.0 27 27 9 83 46 43
Anthony Carter R 28 48 0 61.0 46 32 7 62 35 33
Josh Geer R 31 23 13 89.7 46 33 13 104 58 54
Wilfredo Boscan R 24 25 10 73.7 39 31 12 84 49 46
Dan Cortes R 27 38 0 47.0 34 35 8 49 33 31
Keyvius Sampson R 23 27 26 121.0 92 83 18 124 79 74

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Ian Kennedy 190.7 803 21.7% 7.2% .284 3.49 3.61 97 100
Andrew Cashner 141.0 587 18.8% 6.6% .272 3.19 3.30 88 91
Eric Stults 148.0 631 15.1% 6.0% .283 3.77 3.66 104 101
Josh Johnson 114.7 489 21.6% 7.8% .292 3.61 3.32 100 92
Cory Luebke 71.3 296 23.9% 7.3% .275 3.15 3.08 87 85
Burch Smith 128.7 549 21.8% 7.8% .289 3.85 3.80 106 105
Matt Andriese 132.3 572 15.1% 7.2% .289 3.88 3.86 107 107
Tyson Ross 122.7 534 18.3% 9.5% .287 3.82 3.75 105 104
Tim Stauffer 109.7 470 16.8% 7.4% .283 3.78 3.81 104 105
Luke Gregerson 63.0 262 21.9% 7.1% .279 3.00 3.11 83 86
Brad Boxberger 72.3 309 28.5% 11.6% .289 3.11 3.26 86 90
Matthew Wisler 124.0 541 17.0% 8.5% .289 4.21 4.20 116 116
Nick Vincent 68.0 287 22.6% 8.4% .282 3.31 3.42 91 94
Joe Wieland 44.0 186 21.0% 7.7% .275 3.89 3.78 107 104
Huston Street 50.3 206 23.8% 6.0% .264 3.22 3.43 89 95
Kevin Quackenbush 57.0 249 23.7% 11.8% .287 3.47 3.58 96 99
Casey Kelly 63.0 277 16.2% 6.9% .310 4.29 3.88 118 107
Dale Thayer 63.3 266 20.4% 6.5% .283 3.55 3.43 98 95
Fautino De Los Santos 34.0 148 23.2% 10.8% .292 3.44 3.44 95 95
Robbie Erlin 116.7 511 16.6% 8.2% .287 4.40 4.37 121 121
Arturo Lopez 75.7 336 17.7% 10.1% .291 4.28 4.29 118 118
Sean O’Sullivan 134.3 596 12.2% 8.3% .291 4.42 4.34 122 120
Anthony Bass 113.0 494 15.8% 7.9% .287 4.38 4.16 121 115
Donn Roach 119.7 537 10.6% 9.1% .289 4.59 4.55 127 126
Chris Rearick 55.3 243 18.4% 9.7% .291 4.07 4.08 112 113
Juan Oramas 56.0 253 18.5% 11.4% .292 4.82 4.82 133 133
Jason Marquis 113.0 505 14.0% 9.3% .282 4.70 4.86 130 134
Clayton Richard 112.7 490 11.9% 6.0% .278 4.71 4.68 130 129
Adys Portillo 54.7 260 15.0% 16.3% .287 5.10 5.41 141 149
Clay Zavada 26.7 123 13.8% 12.4% .289 5.06 5.17 140 143
Eddie Bonine 72.0 326 8.4% 8.3% .287 5.37 5.30 149 146
Anthony Carter 61.0 277 16.7% 11.7% .292 4.87 4.80 135 133
Josh Geer 89.7 406 11.2% 8.2% .295 5.42 5.26 150 145
Wilfredo Boscan 73.7 336 11.5% 9.2% .288 5.62 5.58 155 154
Dan Cortes 47.0 225 15.2% 15.5% .286 5.94 6.15 164 170
Keyvius Sampson 121.0 570 16.1% 14.5% .290 5.50 5.67 152 157

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Ian Kennedy 190.7 8.24 2.71 0.93 100 2.2 Steve Trachsel
Andrew Cashner 141.0 7.04 2.46 0.66 109 2.0 Esteban Loaiza
Eric Stults 148.0 5.79 2.29 0.75 92 1.2 Mark Hendrickson
Josh Johnson 114.7 8.30 3.01 0.78 97 1.2 Rick Rhoden
Cory Luebke 71.3 8.92 2.74 0.79 111 1.1 Atlee Hammaker
Burch Smith 128.7 8.37 3.00 1.04 91 0.9 Juan Acevedo
Matt Andriese 132.3 5.88 2.81 0.69 90 0.9 Cha-Seung Baek
Tyson Ross 122.7 7.18 3.71 0.67 91 0.8 Tony Fiore
Tim Stauffer 109.7 6.47 2.85 0.79 92 0.7 Brian Powell
Luke Gregerson 63.0 8.20 2.65 0.66 116 0.5 Hector Carrasco
Brad Boxberger 72.3 10.96 4.45 0.72 112 0.5 Jeff Zaske
Matthew Wisler 124.0 6.67 3.35 0.90 83 0.4 Brad Rigby
Nick Vincent 68.0 8.60 3.18 0.78 105 0.3 Mark Acre
Joe Wieland 44.0 8.02 2.93 1.11 90 0.3 Luis Vasquez
Huston Street 50.3 8.77 2.22 1.14 108 0.3 Mark Huismann
Kevin Quackenbush 57.0 9.29 4.64 0.65 100 0.2 Saul Rivera
Casey Kelly 63.0 6.39 2.74 0.79 81 0.1 John Dopson
Dale Thayer 63.3 7.72 2.46 0.89 98 0.1 Randy St. Claire
Fautino De Los Santos 34.0 9.08 4.20 0.70 101 0.1 Jason Bulger
Robbie Erlin 116.7 6.52 3.22 1.08 79 0.1 Rich Pratt
Arturo Lopez 75.7 7.07 4.03 0.93 81 0.0 Matt Williams
Sean O’Sullivan 134.3 4.85 3.30 0.77 79 0.0 Jake Joseph
Anthony Bass 113.0 6.22 3.11 0.99 80 -0.1 Casey Daigle
Donn Roach 119.7 4.26 3.67 0.71 76 -0.2 Justin Sturge
Chris Rearick 55.3 7.28 3.85 0.87 86 -0.2 Jose Rodriguez
Juan Oramas 56.0 7.49 4.64 1.16 72 -0.3 Damian Moss
Jason Marquis 113.0 5.64 3.74 1.22 74 -0.3 Aaron Sele
Clayton Richard 112.7 4.65 2.36 1.28 74 -0.4 Dave Gassner
Adys Portillo 54.7 6.44 6.98 0.86 68 -0.4 Tim Harrell
Clay Zavada 26.7 5.73 5.16 1.00 69 -0.4 Dick Selma
Eddie Bonine 72.0 3.43 3.39 1.16 65 -0.8 Alan Benes
Anthony Carter 61.0 6.83 4.77 1.06 72 -0.9 Mark Ohlms
Josh Geer 89.7 4.57 3.35 1.32 64 -1.1 Jason Roach
Wilfredo Boscan 73.7 4.71 3.76 1.50 62 -1.2 Jeff Robinson
Dan Cortes 47.0 6.56 6.66 1.48 59 -1.3 Brad Tweedlie
Keyvius Sampson 121.0 6.81 6.16 1.31 63 -1.5 Mike Buddie

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.04 ERA and the NL having a 3.81 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.



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Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
Fangrapher
Guest
Fangrapher
2 years 8 months ago

Guys, you do a great job with these posts and the website in general. However, all of your ZiPS posts have not been as carefully combed through as they should be for FA signings, releases & trades. I truly do appreciate the efforts and the articles that are written though. Thank you!

Dan Szymborski
Guest
Dan Szymborski
2 years 8 months ago

I try to give Carson as much lead time as I can – he has to make charts, format, etc. I usually fill-in any blanks or changes on Twitter. As for releases, I always list players with their most recent team, so an unemployed player released in May is still listed with their more recent team.

Fangrapher
Guest
Fangrapher
2 years 8 months ago

Understood. Thanks a lot Dan. ZiPS is awesome, and my most used projection tool, so thank you for all the work you put in to it!

KJ
Guest
KJ
2 years 8 months ago

Is there an ETA on Luebke’s return?

Steve
Guest
Steve
2 years 8 months ago

These offensive projections are grim. Just not much exciting there.

Mike Green
Guest
Mike Green
2 years 8 months ago

Trachsel, Loaiaza and Hendrickson at the top of one’s rotation? Not-so-golden memories of a lost decade in Toronto…

MDL
Member
MDL
2 years 8 months ago

New favorite baseball name: Atlee Hammaker

batpig
Member
batpig
2 years 8 months ago

Archi Cianfrocco

/discussion

Matthew
Member
Member
2 years 8 months ago

I like the Padres for next year. I think they could win 80 games and compete with Arizona,SF, and the Rox.
A rotation of Luebke,JJ,Cashner,Burch Smith,Tyson Ross/Ian Kennedy with pretty decent depth with Casey Kelly with upside. Dem Ks.

I like Headley,Gyorko,Cabrera,Grandal in the IF. And an OF of Maybin,Venable,Denorfia isn’t bad. I’d really like to see the Padres move Quentin to 1st giving them serviceable players are all positions with upside.

champion88
Member
champion88
2 years 8 months ago

80 wins isn’t going to compete for the division lead though.

This post feels more like the pre-game announcer for the Houston Astros in 2013, who is supposed to make the fans optimistic for the upcoming season, but knowing the team is going to lose 100-110 games!

hbar
Guest
hbar
2 years 8 months ago

Does Venable’s negative projected defense include playing time in center? He’s always felt like an above average right fielder, but the defensive metrics are usually down on him.

And by “felt like”, I mean I don’t get that sinking feeling in my stomach when the ball is hit towards either him or Denorfia, like I do when it’s hit towards Quentin and Amarista.

champion88
Member
champion88
2 years 8 months ago

I know it’s not a representative sample, but the cut-ins at MLB Tonight usually show Amarista making a spectacular play, so not sure why you get a sinking feeling for him in the field?

Drakos
Member
Drakos
2 years 8 months ago

Because he makes a diving catch after taking the most circuitous route possible to get there. It looks like those Family Circus cartoons that show the little kid’s route around the neighborhood.

hbar
Guest
hbar
2 years 8 months ago

Drakos captured my feeling quite well. I shouldn’t have lumped Amarista in with Quentin, however. Amarista is a least fast, if circuitous. Quentin is more along the lines of a few Frankensteinian steps, waves, and grunts at the ball.

Fredchuckdave
Guest
2 years 8 months ago

What are Quentin’s projected HBPs? Or tackles for that matter.

Barney Coolio
Guest
Barney Coolio
2 years 8 months ago

I think that the offensive predictions are highly pessimistic. According to this chart, basically everybody has a disappointing year. I just don’t believe that will happen.

ian
Guest
ian
2 years 8 months ago

Quentin at 258/350/471 is disappointing? That’s one of the best offensive projections so far. If Carlos can stay on the field, that’s a great year.

Barney Coolio
Guest
Barney Coolio
2 years 8 months ago

Considering Carlos Quentin has posted slash lines in all three categories superior to those numbers in both of this years in San Diego, yes, those numbers are disappointing.

2014 projected: .258/.350/.471
Career: .255/.350/.492
With SD: .268/.368/.498

If Quentin turned in those numbers, it would be his worst season in San Diego. But I guess it would be nice that he is able to accrue 386 plate appearances instead of 340 and 320.

ian
Guest
ian
2 years 8 months ago

I think if you were expecting Quentin to improve on his last two seasons, your expectations may have been a little too high. Most players over 30 with a career 124 RC+ are going to decline from a 143 RC+. You’re gonna get some regression to the mean.

And ZiPS likes Quentin a helluva lot more than Steamer or Oliver! You should see those things!

champion88
Member
champion88
2 years 8 months ago

@Barney: That always happens.

It’s like the BP projections where no one is projected to hit more than 30 HR’s a year.

walt526
Guest
walt526
2 years 8 months ago

Google “regression to the mean.”

Seth Smith
Guest
Seth Smith
2 years 8 months ago

Now add my projection…instant World Champions!

Dave
Guest
Dave
2 years 8 months ago

Seth Smith is an underrated player, though, in my opinion. He still hits righties well, and Oakland is a very very tough place to hit for a lefty. Also, he was found to have a problem with his eyes late last year and hit like gangbusters after that was fixed. (You may have seen him get a couple of important hits in the playoff series vs. the Tigers)

Is he going to reverse the Padres fortunes? Well, no. But he is an above average MLB hitter, at least vs. righties.

Vil
Member
Member
Vil
2 years 8 months ago

Oh ye of little faith! Apparently the computer believes Cashner will end up on the DL again, this despite logging 175 IP in 2013 as a starter (mainly).

Only a 141 IP projected for 2014?

Doesn’t ZIPS know that Andrew has taken safety lessons from the NRA since last year’s mishap with a gun? Or that the likelihood of injuring his latissimus dorsi again is so small, if only because it’s so difficult to spell and they’ll call it something else next time?

I Hate Arbys
Guest
I Hate Arbys
2 years 8 months ago

Let’s see, Cashner career professional innings: 20, 100, 101, 15, 70, 175. Yup, totally a player that we should expect to have an average projection of way more than 141 innings. Did he shoot himself in the lat, which can be a nagging injury, too? Did he shoot himself in the rotator cuff? If only 2013 counts in a projection, then just write your own projection and call it “2013.”

dl80
Guest
dl80
2 years 8 months ago

I could be wrong, but I think that was snark.

champion88
Member
champion88
2 years 8 months ago

A couple of minor quibbles:

1) Seth Smith’s projection should definitely have been listed. That signing was awhile ago, so there is no excuse not to list it and you most certainly won’t be listing him with the A’s when it’s time for their projection.

2) Why are most teams’ hyperlinked articles with their city name, but then the Twins name is just spelled out?

Is that because you’re banned from listing state names?

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