2014 ZiPS Projections – Toronto Blue Jays

After having typically appeared in the entirely venerable pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections were released at FanGraphs last year. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Toronto Blue Jays. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago AL / Cincinnati / Cleveland / Colorado / Detroit / Kansas City / Los Angeles NL / Miami / Milwaukee / Minnesota / New York AL / New York NL / Philadelphia / Pittsburgh / San Diego / Seattle / St. Louis / Tampa Bay.

Batters
From their top-five position players (Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Brett Lawrie, Colby Rasmus, and Jose Reyes) the Blue Jays are projected to extract 16.4 wins, according to ZiPS. A convenient number, that, for the sake of constructing an Intriguing Narrative, on account of it’s precisely the number of wins produced by all Toronto field players in 2013. If the club can manage to surround their five best hitters with not-worse-than-replacement-level players, the reasoning goes, then they’ll be at least as valuable as last year.

General manager Alex Anthopoulos et al. do appear to have taken steps towards this end. J.P. Arencibia and Emilio Bonifacio, for example, were among the club’s most grievous offenders last year, combining for a negative win. And while, owing to regression, neither would likely be expected to perform so badly in 2014, neither will have the chance, it appears, as they’re now employed by Texas and Kansas City, respectively. Second base remains an issue, however: ZiPS projects Ryan Goins* and Maicer Izturis for a collective 0.5 WAR in over 900 plate appearances.

*Note: the author accidentally credited Goins with a 2 WAR in the depth chart he tweeted yesterday (Wednesday) afternoon. Apologies.

Pitchers
The reader should note that the starting pitchers depicted in the depth-chart graphic below are arranged not in expected order of rotational slot, but rather by projected WAR, according to ZiPS. The reader should also note that the fifth spot in the Blue Jays’ rotation appears very much there for the taking. “Who will it be?” a certain sort of reader might wonder. “Ideally, Marcus Stroman,” ZiPS is answering implicitly.

With regard to the Toronto bullpen, the author states only the facts when he notes that both Casey Janssen and Sergio Santos have served as the club’s closer in recent years. The author continues stating facts by noting that whichever of them is closing games doesn’t appear to matter very much. That pair, plus left-handed option Brett Cecil, all seem to be capable high-leverage relievers.

Bench/Prospects
As noted by Marc Hulet in the introduction to his top-10 prospect list for the Toronto organization, the Blue Jays do have some promising, high-upside talent; however, Hulet continues, much of that talent is not figuratively knocking on the figurative door of the major leagues. Unsurprisingly, then, one doesn’t find much in the way of rookie-eligible talent projected by ZiPS to produce much in the majors. Except Marcus Stroman, that is. Or maybe Sean Nolin. And maybe Andrew Burns, finally.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Jays, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

TOR Depth

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Jose Bautista R 33 RF 498 74 110 21 1 28 76 7 3
Brett Lawrie R 24 3B 542 64 131 26 5 16 62 12 5
Edwin Encarnacion R 31 1B 564 78 135 27 1 30 89 8 2
Jose Reyes B 31 SS 574 75 152 29 6 11 47 27 8
Colby Rasmus L 27 CF 536 70 121 26 3 23 71 4 3
Dioner Navarro B 30 C 279 31 66 10 1 9 34 0 1
Melky Cabrera B 29 LF 575 76 155 30 5 12 63 11 5
Anthony Gose L 23 CF 616 68 137 25 10 6 46 29 13
Adam Lind L 30 1B 524 57 126 23 1 22 72 1 0
Erik Kratz R 34 C 292 31 62 14 0 12 40 1 0
Josh Thole L 27 C 363 35 83 16 1 6 33 0 1
A.J. Jimenez R 24 C 312 28 74 16 1 4 28 4 3
Andrew Burns R 23 3B 501 55 113 27 3 12 54 18 10
Kevin Pillar R 25 CF 646 64 157 32 4 9 63 19 9
Brent Morel R 27 3B 450 46 99 23 2 7 40 8 3
Ryan Goins L 26 SS 564 49 126 27 3 6 50 5 5
Steve Tolleson R 30 2B 441 45 93 20 1 7 39 10 3
Dan Johnson L 34 1B 527 60 104 21 0 19 62 1 0
Andy LaRoche R 30 3B 382 38 85 19 1 8 39 2 2
Moises Sierra R 25 RF 534 57 121 23 3 15 61 9 6
Ramon Hernandez R 38 C 117 9 25 6 0 4 14 1 0
Mark DeRosa R 39 2B 173 17 35 9 1 4 23 0 0
Ryan Schimpf L 26 3B 480 48 83 20 3 15 52 3 2
Maicer Izturis B 33 2B 372 37 88 17 0 4 32 7 5
Munenori Kawasaki L 33 SS 397 44 88 9 4 1 32 10 5
Jared Goedert R 29 3B 496 52 103 26 1 13 55 2 0
Ryan Langerhans L 34 LF 328 36 58 11 2 10 31 3 4
Luis Jimenez L 32 1B 445 51 101 20 1 14 54 2 1
Mike Nickeas R 31 C 234 19 44 12 0 2 19 0 0
Jonathan Diaz R 29 2B 448 40 85 13 1 2 27 9 4
Gabe Jacobo R 27 1B 345 37 81 17 1 8 39 2 0
Ricardo Nanita L 33 LF 318 30 73 13 0 6 30 4 2
Juan Perez R 27 RF 549 61 123 29 5 9 55 15 8
Kenneth Wilson R 24 CF 362 34 68 14 2 3 23 18 8
Adam Loewen L 30 CF 465 42 88 20 1 10 43 5 4
Lance Zawadzki B 29 2B 239 22 46 7 1 4 17 6 2
Brad Glenn R 27 RF 520 47 101 23 1 18 60 3 2

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP BA OBP SLG wOBA
Jose Bautista 498 15.3% 17.3% .258 .270 .266 .382 .524 .385
Brett Lawrie 542 6.8% 17.5% .170 .299 .266 .326 .436 .333
Edwin Encarnacion 564 11.5% 13.5% .243 .271 .276 .363 .519 .377
Jose Reyes 574 7.1% 9.4% .141 .303 .289 .339 .430 .333
Colby Rasmus 536 8.6% 27.2% .209 .309 .251 .318 .460 .334
Dioner Navarro 279 7.9% 15.1% .156 .282 .264 .325 .420 .319
Melky Cabrera 575 5.7% 13.2% .143 .317 .290 .329 .433 .327
Anthony Gose 616 6.8% 26.0% .113 .330 .244 .303 .357 .292
Adam Lind 524 8.0% 20.4% .191 .295 .265 .323 .456 .336
Erik Kratz 292 6.8% 22.3% .189 .262 .234 .295 .423 .308
Josh Thole 363 8.0% 15.4% .110 .288 .254 .319 .364 .296
A.J. Jimenez 312 4.5% 18.9% .102 .302 .253 .287 .355 .280
Andrew Burns 501 6.2% 23.2% .149 .298 .245 .293 .394 .301
Kevin Pillar 646 3.7% 17.6% .110 .303 .258 .291 .368 .289
Brent Morel 450 6.0% 22.2% .115 .297 .238 .287 .353 .283
Ryan Goins 564 5.0% 21.5% .097 .301 .241 .279 .338 .266
Steve Tolleson 441 7.7% 21.5% .108 .289 .235 .297 .343 .286
Dan Johnson 527 11.4% 19.0% .170 .247 .227 .319 .397 .315
Andy LaRoche 382 6.0% 16.0% .128 .269 .241 .293 .369 .290
Moises Sierra 534 5.4% 25.5% .151 .307 .245 .296 .396 .302
Ramon Hernandez 117 5.1% 18.8% .167 .253 .231 .276 .398 .294
Mark DeRosa 173 11.6% 20.8% .154 .277 .233 .324 .387 .312
Ryan Schimpf 480 8.8% 33.5% .166 .267 .193 .273 .359 .280
Maicer Izturis 372 6.7% 10.8% .085 .282 .259 .314 .344 .290
Munenori Kawasaki 397 6.5% 14.4% .057 .289 .246 .302 .303 .267
Jared Goedert 496 7.3% 24.8% .147 .279 .226 .282 .373 .289
Ryan Langerhans 328 11.0% 33.5% .155 .282 .201 .291 .356 .284
Luis Jimenez 445 7.4% 20.7% .157 .285 .248 .303 .405 .310
Mike Nickeas 234 6.4% 21.4% .084 .261 .208 .268 .292 .250
Jonathan Diaz 448 8.7% 20.1% .054 .277 .218 .299 .272 .259
Gabe Jacobo 345 4.3% 24.3% .132 .309 .248 .284 .380 .293
Ricardo Nanita 318 4.4% 15.1% .104 .271 .245 .281 .349 .277
Juan Perez 549 3.6% 24.2% .126 .300 .237 .269 .363 .276
Kenneth Wilson 362 6.4% 29.0% .083 .294 .207 .273 .290 .255
Adam Loewen 465 7.3% 33.1% .121 .294 .206 .267 .327 .263
Lance Zawadzki 239 4.6% 27.2% .094 .269 .205 .245 .299 .239
Brad Glenn 520 5.4% 33.5% .163 .279 .208 .254 .371 .274

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Jose Bautista 498 7.4 144 2 4.0 Dwight Evans
Brett Lawrie 542 5.3 106 6 3.3 Adrian Beltre
Edwin Encarnacion 564 7.1 137 -3 3.2 Richie Zisk
Jose Reyes 574 5.8 108 -4 3.1 Barry Larkin
Colby Rasmus 536 5.2 109 1 2.8 Ryan Church
Dioner Navarro 279 4.9 101 0 1.5 Alan Ashby
Melky Cabrera 575 5.4 106 -4 1.2 Gregg Jefferies
Anthony Gose 616 3.9 79 1 1.1 Herm Winningham
Adam Lind 524 5.4 109 -2 1.1 Larry Sheets
Erik Kratz 292 4.4 93 -3 1.1 Joe Oliver
Josh Thole 363 4.1 86 -3 1.0 Bruce Benedict
A.J. Jimenez 312 3.6 74 3 1.0 Kirt Manwaring
Andrew Burns 501 4.1 85 -1 0.9 Danny Klassen
Kevin Pillar 646 3.9 79 0 0.8 Ray Cabrera
Brent Morel 450 3.6 74 2 0.5 Adam Pavkovich
Ryan Goins 564 3.3 68 2 0.4 Gregorio Petit
Steve Tolleson 441 3.7 74 -1 0.4 Andy Beinbrink
Dan Johnson 527 4.5 94 0 0.4 Pete O’Brien
Andy LaRoche 382 3.8 79 -1 0.3 Stu Cole
Moises Sierra 534 4.1 87 0 0.2 Pedro Swann
Ramon Hernandez 117 4.0 81 -2 0.2 Raul Chavez
Mark DeRosa 173 4.4 93 -3 0.2 Rene Gonzales
Ryan Schimpf 480 3.3 71 0 0.2 Paul Gonzalez
Maicer Izturis 372 3.8 80 -3 0.1 Craig Wilson
Munenori Kawasaki 397 3.3 66 -1 0.1 Jose Uribe
Jared Goedert 496 3.7 77 -4 0.1 Dave Baker
Ryan Langerhans 328 3.3 75 3 0.0 Dann Howitt
Luis Jimenez 445 4.4 91 -1 0.0 Casey Parsons
Mike Nickeas 234 2.7 53 -2 -0.2 Chad Moeller
Jonathan Diaz 448 2.8 58 1 -0.3 Drew Niles
Gabe Jacobo 345 4.0 79 -1 -0.5 Rich Murray
Ricardo Nanita 318 3.5 71 -1 -0.6 Joe Orsulak
Juan Perez 549 3.4 71 1 -0.8 Alexis Gomez
Kenneth Wilson 362 2.8 54 -4 -1.0 Michael Thomas
Adam Loewen 465 2.9 61 -5 -1.0 Ben Harrison
Lance Zawadzki 239 2.6 48 -4 -1.0 Caonabo Cosme
Brad Glenn 520 3.2 68 -5 -1.5 Troy Farnsworth

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player T Age G GS IP SO BB HR H R ER
R.A. Dickey R 39 30 29 195.7 162 56 27 186 93 87
Brandon Morrow R 29 23 23 125.7 137 49 15 113 58 54
Mark Buehrle L 35 27 27 168.7 110 39 23 181 87 81
Marcus Stroman R 23 21 21 114.3 113 28 20 113 60 56
Sean Nolin L 24 22 21 107.7 93 40 14 111 58 54
J.A. Happ L 31 24 23 125.0 112 56 17 124 70 65
Brett Cecil L 27 65 0 66.0 73 24 6 56 26 24
Casey Janssen R 32 56 0 53.3 55 13 5 45 19 18
Aaron Loup L 26 67 0 72.7 58 17 7 71 32 30
Drew Hutchison R 23 14 13 59.3 50 24 8 60 32 30
Sergio Santos R 30 35 0 32.0 37 11 3 26 13 12
Buzz Oliver L 43 47 0 44.0 39 13 5 41 19 18
Steve Delabar R 30 56 0 62.3 78 36 8 52 29 27
Esmil Rogers R 28 44 13 112.0 90 40 16 120 64 60
Neil Wagner R 30 57 0 59.0 57 25 7 56 29 27
Luis Perez L 29 21 0 24.3 22 10 3 23 12 11
Dustin McGowan R 32 35 0 35.7 36 20 4 33 18 17
Jeremy Jeffress R 26 45 0 52.7 46 31 5 51 28 26
Marcus Walden R 25 26 22 125.7 58 50 16 147 79 74
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 29 30 16 115.0 80 45 18 127 72 67
John Stilson R 23 38 0 48.3 40 20 7 49 27 25
Mike Broadway R 27 26 0 32.3 25 14 5 34 19 18
Mickey Storey R 28 49 0 70.3 63 25 11 72 40 37
Todd Redmond R 29 24 22 119.7 96 41 25 132 78 73
Thad Weber R 29 27 22 131.3 78 44 23 152 87 81
Deck McGuire R 25 25 24 132.3 94 58 23 147 88 82
Alex Hinshaw L 31 29 0 28.0 28 27 4 27 19 18
Kyle Drabek R 26 20 16 78.3 53 42 14 88 55 51
Ricky Romero L 29 27 26 146.7 102 87 23 159 98 92
Miguel Batista R 43 16 6 36.7 22 24 7 43 29 27
Chad Beck R 29 38 6 65.3 38 33 10 75 45 42
Buddy Carlyle R 36 31 2 50.3 42 23 11 56 35 33
Bobby Korecky R 34 33 1 55.0 30 21 11 66 40 37
Claudio Vargas R 36 17 11 65.0 36 34 13 78 50 47
Dave Bush R 34 16 11 67.7 36 18 17 85 52 49
Chad Jenkins R 26 30 19 117.0 58 42 23 141 83 78
Ramon Ortiz R 41 14 12 69.0 30 30 18 90 60 56
Rob Rasmussen L 25 26 24 121.3 80 76 24 140 93 87

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
R.A. Dickey 195.7 829 19.5% 6.8% .276 4.00 4.28 97 104
Brandon Morrow 125.7 539 25.4% 9.1% .293 3.87 3.79 94 92
Mark Buehrle 168.7 726 15.1% 5.4% .288 4.32 4.37 105 106
Marcus Stroman 114.3 484 23.4% 5.8% .293 4.41 4.34 107 105
Sean Nolin 107.7 474 19.6% 8.4% .302 4.51 4.39 109 107
J.A. Happ 125.0 555 20.2% 10.1% .291 4.68 4.52 114 110
Brett Cecil 66.0 278 26.3% 8.6% .292 3.27 3.32 79 81
Casey Janssen 53.3 218 25.2% 6.0% .280 3.04 3.12 74 76
Aaron Loup 72.7 306 18.9% 5.6% .292 3.72 3.61 90 88
Drew Hutchison 59.3 262 19.1% 9.2% .294 4.55 4.61 110 112
Sergio Santos 32.0 133 27.8% 8.3% .284 3.37 3.02 82 73
Buzz Oliver 44.0 186 21.0% 7.0% .283 3.68 3.83 89 93
Steve Delabar 62.3 275 28.4% 13.1% .296 3.90 4.12 95 100
Esmil Rogers 112.0 496 18.1% 8.1% .302 4.82 4.57 117 111
Neil Wagner 59.0 258 22.1% 9.7% .293 4.12 4.10 100 100
Luis Perez 24.3 106 20.8% 9.4% .286 4.07 4.32 99 105
Dustin McGowan 35.7 160 22.5% 12.5% .299 4.29 4.46 104 108
Jeremy Jeffress 52.7 240 19.2% 12.9% .297 4.44 4.54 108 110
Marcus Walden 125.7 574 10.1% 8.7% .296 5.30 5.26 129 128
Austin Bibens-Dirkx 115.0 517 15.5% 8.7% .297 5.24 5.15 127 125
John Stilson 48.3 214 18.7% 9.4% .292 4.66 4.83 113 117
Mike Broadway 32.3 145 17.3% 9.7% .293 5.01 5.12 122 124
Mickey Storey 70.3 308 20.5% 8.1% .298 4.73 4.61 115 112
Todd Redmond 119.7 532 18.0% 7.7% .295 5.49 5.46 133 133
Thad Weber 131.3 590 13.2% 7.5% .295 5.55 5.45 135 132
Deck McGuire 132.3 602 15.6% 9.6% .295 5.58 5.49 135 133
Alex Hinshaw 28.0 138 20.3% 19.6% .299 5.79 6.03 141 146
Kyle Drabek 78.3 365 14.5% 11.5% .293 5.86 5.87 142 142
Ricky Romero 146.7 686 14.9% 12.7% .293 5.65 5.78 137 140
Miguel Batista 36.7 177 12.4% 13.6% .295 6.63 6.58 161 160
Chad Beck 65.3 304 12.5% 10.9% .297 5.79 5.70 141 138
Buddy Carlyle 50.3 230 18.3% 10.0% .298 5.90 5.90 143 143
Bobby Korecky 55.0 252 11.9% 8.3% .296 6.05 6.05 147 147
Claudio Vargas 65.0 307 11.7% 11.1% .297 6.51 6.46 158 157
Dave Bush 67.7 306 11.8% 5.9% .294 6.52 6.35 158 154
Chad Jenkins 117.0 534 10.9% 7.9% .292 6.00 5.97 146 145
Ramon Ortiz 69.0 327 9.2% 9.2% .295 7.30 7.17 177 174
Rob Rasmussen 121.3 580 13.8% 13.1% .297 6.45 6.50 157 158

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
R.A. Dickey 195.7 7.45 2.58 1.24 104 3.1 Tim Wakefield
Brandon Morrow 125.7 9.81 3.51 1.07 107 2.2 Juan Guzman
Mark Buehrle 168.7 5.87 2.08 1.23 96 2.0 Geoff Zahn
Marcus Stroman 114.3 8.90 2.20 1.57 94 1.2 Anthony Reyes
Sean Nolin 107.7 7.77 3.34 1.17 92 1.0 Danny Jackson
J.A. Happ 125.0 8.06 4.03 1.22 89 0.9 Bob McClure
Brett Cecil 66.0 9.95 3.27 0.82 127 0.9 Steve Kline
Casey Janssen 53.3 9.29 2.20 0.84 137 0.9 Mike Timlin
Aaron Loup 72.7 7.18 2.10 0.87 112 0.6 Mark Peterson
Drew Hutchison 59.3 7.59 3.64 1.21 91 0.5 Tim Leary
Sergio Santos 32.0 10.41 3.09 0.84 123 0.4 Russ Springer
Buzz Oliver 44.0 7.98 2.66 1.02 113 0.4 Rick Honeycutt
Steve Delabar 62.3 11.27 5.20 1.16 106 0.4 Mark Clear
Esmil Rogers 112.0 7.23 3.21 1.29 86 0.3 Steve Shields
Neil Wagner 59.0 8.69 3.81 1.07 101 0.2 Jason Boyd
Luis Perez 24.3 8.15 3.70 1.11 102 0.1 Matt Whisenant
Dustin McGowan 35.7 9.08 5.04 1.01 97 0.1 Rich Croushore
Jeremy Jeffress 52.7 7.86 5.29 0.85 93 0.0 Bob Gibson
Marcus Walden 125.7 4.15 3.58 1.15 78 0.0 Jake Dittler
Austin Bibens-Dirkx 115.0 6.26 3.52 1.41 79 -0.1 Chris Bootcheck
John Stilson 48.3 7.45 3.73 1.30 89 -0.1 Steve LaRose
Mike Broadway 32.3 6.97 3.90 1.39 83 -0.2 Frank Perez
Mickey Storey 70.3 8.07 3.20 1.41 88 -0.3 Jim Dougherty
Todd Redmond 119.7 7.22 3.08 1.88 76 -0.3 Jason Middlebrook
Thad Weber 131.3 5.35 3.02 1.58 75 -0.5 Vicente Bonilla
Deck McGuire 132.3 6.39 3.95 1.56 74 -0.5 Darren Hodges
Alex Hinshaw 28.0 9.00 8.68 1.29 72 -0.5 Ricardo Jordan
Kyle Drabek 78.3 6.09 4.83 1.61 71 -0.6 Daron Kirkreit
Ricky Romero 146.7 6.26 5.34 1.41 73 -0.6 Don Collins
Miguel Batista 36.7 5.40 5.89 1.72 63 -0.7 Michael Riley
Chad Beck 65.3 5.24 4.55 1.38 72 -0.7 Marty McLeary
Buddy Carlyle 50.3 7.51 4.12 1.97 70 -0.8 Jim Brower
Bobby Korecky 55.0 4.91 3.44 1.80 69 -1.0 Joe Haynes
Claudio Vargas 65.0 4.98 4.71 1.80 64 -1.0 Lou Kretlow
Dave Bush 67.7 4.79 2.39 2.26 64 -1.0 Jeff Harris
Chad Jenkins 117.0 4.46 3.23 1.77 69 -1.1 Mike Redding
Ramon Ortiz 69.0 3.91 3.91 2.35 57 -1.7 Ed Riley
Rob Rasmussen 121.3 5.94 5.64 1.78 64 -1.7 Tom Singer

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.04 ERA and the NL having a 3.81 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.




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Carson Cistulli occasionally publishes spirited ejaculations at The New Enthusiast.


33 Responses to “2014 ZiPS Projections – Toronto Blue Jays”

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  1. Mike Green says:

    When you’ve got Dwight Evans, Adrian Beltre and Barry Larkin as your comps for your position players, you’ve got assets.

    I like the Danny Jackson comp for Nolin. That would be sweet.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  2. Mike Green says:

    Dan, I didn’t see the projection for Mark Ellis under in either the Cardinals or Dodgers. Can you provide it for those of us who felt that he would be good for a 1.5-2 win improvement over Goins?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  3. Spencer00 says:

    Bob Gibson was some dudes comp who I’ve barely even heard of. :o

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  4. Oh, Beepy says:

    Some familiar names to Jays fans in these comps.
    Ashby was our radio guy until last year. Morrow’s Guzman comp is amazing. Janssen as Timlin makes me smile.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  5. Froglegs Jackson says:

    Only 168 innings for Buehrle? Seems like a low projection.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  6. Baron Samedi says:

    Get a pitcher and second baseman, guys.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  7. Kevin says:

    Stephen Drew is practically begging to be signed by this team.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  8. BuffaloSojourn says:

    Who the hell is Buzz Oliver?!

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  9. leoleo says:

    Most obvious comp – R.A. Dickey : Tim Wakefield

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  10. Antonio Bananas says:

    So nobody thinks dickey bounces back? I thought all estimates of his demise were unfounded? This isn’t me slamming you guys for last year I’m genuinely curious

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • B N says:

      Isn’t a ~3 WAR estimate a bounce-back? Especially since fWAR has pretty much consistently given him a 0.2 ERA penalty compared to RA9-WAR? For reference, fWAR only places him with one season over 3 WAR… It’s a stretch to project a 40-year old pitcher coming off a 2 WAR season for more of a bounce-back than that.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Marcus says:

      He sucked cause he hurt his back during the WBC and didn’t take the time time needed to let himself heal. My theory is him racking up innings was more of a priority than being as effective as possible.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • champion88 says:

        @Marcus: We are forgetting here that the Blue Jays were expected to be playoff contenders at the start of 2013.

        I am sure he and the Blue Jays wanted him out there unless he absolutely could not go.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

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