2015 ZiPS Projections – Atlanta Braves

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Atlanta Braves. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Batters
Although it hasn’t been published here yet, one assumes that Jason Heyward‘s projection (when it is available) will be one of the best among Atlanta’s collection of field players. Heyward, of course, won’t be playing for the club in 2015, having recently been traded to St. Louis in exchange for Shelby Miller et al. What that means, immediately, for the Atlantans is a more playing time for Evan Gattis in left field, at which position he made zero appearances in 2014 after starting there 47 times in 2013.

Expected to inherent Gattis’s catching role from 2014 is Christian Bethancourt, who enters just his age-23 season. Despite having recorded just a 54 wRC+ and -0.2 WAR over 117 plate appearances last year in what was effectively his debut (he appeared in a single game in 2013), Bethancourt is expected to produce enough offensively to render himself a league-average player.

Pitchers
Atlanta very possibly hasn’t finished purging its roster of outfielders with expiring contracts: Justin Upton has also been invoked as a potential trade candidate. Barring the unexpected, however, the club likely won’t be altering its starting rotation much. With regard to that rotation, it appears to offer a strong combination of youth and talent, featuring four pitchers of 27 or younger projected to record about a 3.0 WAR or better. As for the fifth spot, logic would appear to suggest that David Hale is the favorite to claim it; ZiPS suggests that Cody Martin is a better option.

With regard to Atlanta’s bullpen, one finds that Craig Kimbrel is projected to post a 48 FIP- — a figure which itself would have been the sixth best among the 330 pitchers to record at least 50 innings in 2014. Not included in the depth-chart image below, but of some interest nonetheless, is right-hander Shae Simmons, whose projected 78 ERA- is the lowest such figure after Kimbrel. He’s expected to be healthy for spring training after missing the last two months of 2014 with shoulder trouble.

Bench/Prospects
The departure of Tommy La Stella via trade to the Chicago Cubs makes it even more likely that second-base prospect Jose Peraza will make his major-league debut before the end of the season. His projected 0.9 WAR in 538 plate appearances is the best figure among Atlanta’s rookie-eligible players who also aren’t Christian Bethancourt. In the meantime, Atlanta have a collection of low-profile options on the 40-man roster, of whom Elmer Reyes (0.6 WAR in 476 PA) is the best option according to ZiPS. Omitted from below due to having been signed so recently but also probably relevant to Atlanta’s second-base hole, Corban Joseph is projected to slash .241/.305/.373 (86 OPS+) and record a 0.3 WAR (with -4 defensive runs at second base) in 349 plate appearances.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Atlanta Braves, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Atlanta Depth

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Freddie Freeman L 25 1B 669 97 166 36 3 22 91 3 2
Andrelton Simmons R 25 SS 590 60 141 24 5 9 53 7 6
Justin Upton R 27 LF 646 94 148 30 3 26 85 12 5
Christian Bethancourt R 23 C 473 49 118 22 1 10 51 10 4
Evan Gattis R 28 C 411 46 94 20 1 19 55 1 1
B.J. Upton R 30 CF 553 67 109 22 4 17 47 20 7
Todd Cunningham B 26 CF 530 60 122 21 4 5 42 15 6
Jose Peraza R 21 2B 538 59 131 18 8 3 43 43 14
Emilio Bonifacio B 30 CF 449 53 106 16 4 3 26 28 8
Cedric Hunter L 27 LF 432 52 98 24 3 10 49 7 4
Chris Johnson R 30 3B 577 50 147 28 2 12 68 4 0
Daniel Castro R 22 SS 491 54 120 21 5 6 46 8 5
Elmer Reyes R 24 SS 476 47 106 25 4 6 43 4 3
Ernesto Mejia R 29 1B 549 62 122 24 1 25 68 4 2
Pedro Ciriaco R 29 2B 363 36 88 16 3 3 27 14 4
Tyler Pastornicky R 25 2B 359 39 86 12 3 3 27 8 4
Phil Gosselin R 26 2B 546 58 126 23 4 5 41 6 2
Kyle Wren L 24 CF 472 49 106 18 6 1 33 30 11
Gerald Laird R 35 C 151 14 31 7 0 1 11 0 0
Eli Whiteside R 35 C 232 21 42 10 1 4 19 1 0
Ramiro Pena B 29 2B 220 18 47 8 1 3 14 1 1
Donnie Murphy R 32 2B 304 34 59 13 1 10 35 2 2
Mycal Jones R 28 CF 459 45 88 20 1 4 32 16 8
Sean Kazmar R 30 3B 306 30 65 16 2 3 26 3 3
Kyle Kubitza L 24 3B 532 59 98 23 7 9 47 10 10
Ryan Doumit B 34 LF 335 31 74 16 1 9 40 1 0
Steven Lerud L 30 C 202 20 35 7 1 2 14 1 0
Joey Terdoslavich B 26 RF 553 62 125 26 2 13 56 3 3
Zoilo Almonte B 26 LF 480 52 106 18 2 14 55 8 3
Rich Poythress R 27 1B 383 42 85 17 1 8 37 2 1
Jose Constanza L 31 LF 466 49 110 8 3 1 27 18 9
Derrick Mitchell R 28 RF 289 31 56 12 1 7 27 7 4
Andy Simunic R 29 RF 237 23 49 5 0 1 13 5 2
Mark Hamilton L 30 1B 337 37 65 15 0 7 31 0 0
Brandon Boggs B 32 RF 398 39 73 16 3 6 32 3 3

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP BA OBP SLG wOBA
Freddie Freeman 669 11.4% 20.6% .186 .339 .286 .374 .472 .367
Andrelton Simmons 590 5.8% 10.0% .112 .274 .258 .302 .370 .292
Justin Upton 646 10.4% 24.8% .202 .316 .261 .344 .463 .353
Christian Bethancourt 473 3.0% 19.9% .120 .309 .263 .287 .383 .295
Evan Gattis 411 5.4% 22.1% .208 .276 .247 .299 .455 .326
B.J. Upton 553 9.0% 28.8% .164 .286 .221 .293 .385 .299
Todd Cunningham 530 5.5% 16.6% .091 .298 .253 .305 .344 .287
Jose Peraza 538 3.5% 15.1% .085 .300 .259 .289 .344 .283
Emilio Bonifacio 449 6.7% 19.6% .080 .321 .258 .309 .338 .291
Cedric Hunter 432 7.2% 15.0% .153 .274 .250 .309 .403 .311
Chris Johnson 577 4.5% 23.7% .125 .339 .270 .306 .395 .307
Daniel Castro 491 2.9% 12.8% .106 .288 .259 .281 .365 .278
Elmer Reyes 476 2.5% 23.7% .113 .300 .237 .267 .350 .270
Ernesto Mejia 549 6.2% 34.4% .200 .329 .241 .295 .441 .323
Pedro Ciriaco 363 2.5% 16.5% .090 .298 .254 .276 .344 .273
Tyler Pastornicky 359 5.8% 15.6% .081 .304 .261 .305 .342 .286
Phil Gosselin 546 4.2% 19.2% .091 .302 .248 .286 .339 .274
Kyle Wren 472 5.3% 18.2% .076 .299 .244 .286 .320 .271
Gerald Laird 151 7.9% 16.6% .073 .270 .228 .293 .301 .264
Eli Whiteside 232 5.2% 26.7% .112 .252 .195 .246 .307 .246
Ramiro Pena 220 6.8% 19.5% .095 .284 .235 .290 .330 .271
Donnie Murphy 304 6.3% 27.6% .163 .266 .215 .277 .378 .287
Mycal Jones 459 6.3% 23.5% .082 .275 .212 .272 .294 .254
Sean Kazmar 306 4.6% 15.7% .102 .263 .229 .267 .331 .261
Kyle Kubitza 532 9.8% 35.7% .136 .324 .208 .292 .344 .279
Ryan Doumit 335 6.9% 20.3% .147 .279 .241 .296 .388 .299
Steven Lerud 202 8.9% 31.2% .084 .292 .197 .285 .281 .257
Joey Terdoslavich 553 6.9% 24.4% .135 .307 .245 .298 .380 .298
Zoilo Almonte 480 5.4% 23.8% .143 .284 .236 .279 .379 .291
Rich Poythress 383 7.3% 18.0% .123 .279 .241 .300 .364 .296
Jose Constanza 466 5.4% 14.4% .039 .298 .255 .296 .294 .262
Derrick Mitchell 289 7.3% 26.3% .133 .269 .214 .274 .347 .274
Andy Simunic 237 6.3% 22.8% .037 .293 .226 .277 .263 .246
Mark Hamilton 337 9.8% 29.7% .121 .297 .217 .297 .338 .285
Brandon Boggs 398 8.0% 30.2% .112 .286 .204 .275 .316 .263

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Freddie Freeman 669 6.7 131 -1 3.5 Kent Hrbek
Andrelton Simmons 590 4.0 84 18 3.4 Jack Wilson
Justin Upton 646 5.9 120 -1 2.9 Derrek Lee
Christian Bethancourt 473 4.1 82 3 2.0 Jorge Pedre
Evan Gattis 411 4.9 104 -6 1.9 Hector Villanueva
B.J. Upton 553 4.0 85 -2 1.0 Ruben Rivera
Todd Cunningham 530 3.9 78 2 1.0 Skip Schumaker
Jose Peraza 538 3.9 73 3 0.9 Tony Abreu
Emilio Bonifacio 449 4.1 78 0 0.8 Tony Scott
Cedric Hunter 432 4.5 94 1 0.7 Dan Masteller
Chris Johnson 577 4.6 91 -9 0.7 Bobby Knoop
Daniel Castro 491 3.7 76 -1 0.6 Gary DiSarcina
Elmer Reyes 476 3.3 68 3 0.6 Angel Salazar
Ernesto Mejia 549 4.6 99 -2 0.4 Chris Cron
Pedro Ciriaco 363 3.6 69 2 0.2 Casey Smith
Tyler Pastornicky 359 3.8 78 -2 0.2 Ronny Cedeno
Phil Gosselin 546 3.5 71 1 0.2 Juan Melo
Kyle Wren 472 3.5 67 0 0.0 Javon Moran
Gerald Laird 151 3.1 64 -2 0.0 Rick Cerone
Eli Whiteside 232 2.6 51 1 0.0 Frank Charles
Ramiro Pena 220 3.3 70 0 0.0 Keith Kessinger
Donnie Murphy 304 3.5 78 -4 -0.1 Dave Matranga
Mycal Jones 459 2.7 56 5 -0.1 Juan Piniella
Sean Kazmar 306 3.0 64 1 -0.2 Stu Cole
Kyle Kubitza 532 3.2 74 -4 -0.2 Dallas McPherson
Ryan Doumit 335 4.1 86 -4 -0.3 Mark Smith
Steven Lerud 202 2.8 57 -4 -0.3 Jayhawk Owens
Joey Terdoslavich 553 4.0 85 -4 -0.4 Guillermo Velasquez
Zoilo Almonte 480 3.8 79 -3 -0.5 Matthew Cepicky
Rich Poythress 383 3.9 82 -2 -0.6 Jim Deschaine
Jose Constanza 466 3.2 63 5 -0.7 Jason Tyner
Derrick Mitchell 289 3.2 70 -2 -0.7 Dave Elliott
Andy Simunic 237 2.6 50 0 -0.9 Keith Smith
Mark Hamilton 337 3.5 74 -5 -1.1 Todd Mensik
Brandon Boggs 398 2.9 62 -2 -1.2 Kevin Koslofski

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player T Age G GS IP SO BB HR H R ER
Julio Teheran R 24 32 32 204.0 181 48 21 183 78 73
Alex Wood L 24 40 25 165.3 154 50 13 148 63 59
Shelby Miller R 24 30 30 172.0 157 63 21 151 73 68
Mike Minor L 27 30 30 178.3 153 51 23 160 78 73
Kris Medlen R 29 23 22 142.3 109 34 14 142 60 56
Ervin Santana R 32 28 28 175.7 145 54 20 167 81 76
Craig Kimbrel R 27 66 0 63.3 101 22 4 37 12 11
Aaron Harang R 37 25 25 149.7 108 54 15 152 74 69
Cody Martin R 25 26 22 130.0 119 57 15 124 64 60
Gavin Floyd R 32 15 15 86.7 71 28 10 84 41 38
Aaron Northcraft R 25 25 25 133.0 103 59 12 133 67 63
Williams Perez R 24 25 24 123.3 83 42 13 127 63 59
Shae Simmons R 24 52 0 50.0 57 23 3 39 17 16
J.R. Graham R 25 25 20 88.3 55 30 7 92 44 41
Chasen Shreve L 24 58 0 70.0 73 25 6 61 28 26
Jason Hursh R 23 22 21 104.0 58 35 10 111 55 51
Gus Schlosser R 26 31 20 122.3 81 50 11 126 64 60
David D. Carpenter R 29 61 0 66.7 67 21 6 60 27 25
Brandon Beachy R 28 11 11 58.0 45 25 7 54 29 27
Yean Carlos Gil L 24 22 18 97.3 62 34 9 103 51 48
Anthony Varvaro R 30 60 0 59.3 47 18 5 55 25 23
James Russell L 29 70 0 57.0 45 19 5 52 25 23
David Bromberg R 27 15 9 53.0 47 25 6 51 28 26
Juan Jaime R 27 49 0 49.7 65 40 4 38 22 21
Chien-Ming Wang R 35 22 21 124.0 52 40 11 142 71 66
Brandon Cunniff R 26 35 0 52.7 51 27 5 47 25 23
Lucas Sims R 21 27 23 130.7 93 63 16 133 75 70
Ian Thomas L 28 32 6 54.0 54 26 8 51 29 27
David Hale R 27 33 15 102.7 61 50 11 109 58 54
Arodys Vizcaino R 24 39 4 53.0 45 25 6 52 28 26
Luis Avilan L 25 74 0 61.3 41 30 5 59 30 28
Donnie Veal L 30 53 0 56.7 49 32 5 53 28 26
Mauricio Cabrera R 21 24 13 69.3 50 52 6 69 41 38
Kanekoa Texeira R 29 19 6 52.3 30 27 6 55 31 29
Zach Stewart R 28 25 18 116.7 62 37 16 133 71 66
Ryan Buchter L 28 49 0 56.3 63 48 6 48 31 29
Jorge Reyes R 27 48 0 73.0 66 39 9 69 40 37
Jake Brigham R 27 24 18 107.7 74 52 16 115 66 62
Tyrell Jenkins R 22 14 14 67.3 38 32 10 75 44 41
Pedro Beato R 28 45 0 53.3 43 26 8 54 31 29
Mitch Atkins R 29 23 19 111.3 75 41 19 123 70 65
Greg Smith L 31 25 22 131.3 66 38 20 151 82 77
Sugar Ray Marimon R 26 24 22 116.3 68 53 21 131 79 74

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Julio Teheran 204.0 843 21.5% 5.7% .276 3.22 3.37 87 91
Alex Wood 165.3 694 22.2% 7.2% .287 3.21 3.21 86 86
Shelby Miller 172.0 730 21.5% 8.6% .267 3.56 3.93 96 106
Mike Minor 178.3 746 20.5% 6.8% .266 3.68 3.85 99 104
Kris Medlen 142.3 603 18.1% 5.6% .289 3.54 3.58 95 96
Ervin Santana 175.7 748 19.4% 7.2% .280 3.89 3.84 105 103
Craig Kimbrel 63.3 249 40.6% 8.8% .275 1.56 1.77 42 48
Aaron Harang 149.7 655 16.5% 8.2% .288 4.15 3.97 112 107
Cody Martin 130.0 571 20.8% 10.0% .292 4.15 4.20 112 113
Gavin Floyd 86.7 372 19.1% 7.5% .287 3.95 4.02 106 108
Aaron Northcraft 133.0 591 17.4% 10.0% .296 4.26 4.19 115 113
Williams Perez 123.3 539 15.4% 7.8% .289 4.31 4.27 116 115
Shae Simmons 50.0 212 26.9% 10.8% .283 2.88 2.99 78 81
J.R. Graham 88.3 387 14.2% 7.8% .293 4.18 4.03 113 108
Chasen Shreve 70.0 296 24.7% 8.4% .291 3.34 3.20 90 86
Jason Hursh 104.0 458 12.7% 7.6% .289 4.41 4.37 119 118
Gus Schlosser 122.3 543 14.9% 9.2% .293 4.41 4.30 119 116
David D. Carpenter 66.7 281 23.8% 7.5% .293 3.37 3.25 91 87
Brandon Beachy 58.0 253 17.8% 9.9% .269 4.19 4.41 113 119
Yean Carlos Gil 97.3 429 14.5% 7.9% .296 4.44 4.21 120 114
Anthony Varvaro 59.3 251 18.7% 7.2% .276 3.49 3.37 94 91
James Russell 57.0 242 18.6% 7.9% .273 3.63 3.40 98 92
David Bromberg 53.0 235 20.0% 10.6% .292 4.42 4.34 119 117
Juan Jaime 49.7 227 28.6% 17.6% .295 3.81 4.02 103 108
Chien-Ming Wang 124.0 554 9.4% 7.2% .295 4.79 4.48 129 121
Brandon Cunniff 52.7 232 22.0% 11.6% .287 3.93 3.89 106 105
Lucas Sims 130.7 588 15.8% 10.7% .287 4.82 4.85 130 131
Ian Thomas 54.0 239 22.6% 10.9% .291 4.50 4.53 121 122
David Hale 102.7 467 13.1% 10.7% .289 4.73 4.75 127 128
Arodys Vizcaino 53.0 236 19.1% 10.6% .293 4.42 4.35 119 117
Luis Avilan 61.3 273 15.0% 11.0% .280 4.11 4.19 111 113
Donnie Veal 56.7 255 19.2% 12.5% .289 4.13 4.22 111 114
Mauricio Cabrera 69.3 329 15.2% 15.8% .292 4.93 5.20 133 140
Kanekoa Texeira 52.3 239 12.6% 11.3% .283 4.99 5.06 134 136
Zach Stewart 116.7 520 11.9% 7.1% .293 5.09 4.88 137 131
Ryan Buchter 56.3 265 23.8% 18.1% .292 4.63 4.86 125 131
Jorge Reyes 73.0 327 20.2% 11.9% .287 4.56 4.49 123 121
Jake Brigham 107.7 490 15.1% 10.6% .289 5.18 5.20 140 140
Tyrell Jenkins 67.3 309 12.3% 10.4% .289 5.48 5.46 148 147
Pedro Beato 53.3 240 17.9% 10.8% .288 4.89 4.97 132 134
Mitch Atkins 111.3 498 15.1% 8.2% .292 5.25 5.22 141 141
Greg Smith 131.3 583 11.3% 6.5% .291 5.28 5.06 142 136
Sugar Ray Marimon 116.3 533 12.8% 9.9% .287 5.72 5.78 154 156

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Julio Teheran 204.0 7.99 2.12 0.93 118 4.3 Kyle Lohse
Alex Wood 165.3 8.38 2.72 0.71 118 3.4 Dave LaPoint
Shelby Miller 172.0 8.22 3.30 1.10 107 2.9 Jimmy Haynes
Mike Minor 178.3 7.72 2.57 1.16 103 2.7 Lance Painter
Kris Medlen 142.3 6.89 2.15 0.89 107 2.4 Mike Morgan
Ervin Santana 175.7 7.43 2.77 1.02 98 2.2 Ron Darling
Craig Kimbrel 63.3 14.36 3.13 0.57 243 2.0 Scott Williamson
Aaron Harang 149.7 6.49 3.25 0.90 92 1.4 Rick Sutcliffe
Cody Martin 130.0 8.24 3.95 1.04 92 1.1 Bill Melvin
Gavin Floyd 86.7 7.37 2.91 1.04 96 1.0 Scott Kamieniecki
Aaron Northcraft 133.0 6.97 3.99 0.81 89 1.0 Jeff Fulchino
Williams Perez 123.3 6.06 3.07 0.95 88 0.9 Jake Joseph
Shae Simmons 50.0 10.26 4.14 0.54 132 0.8 Ryan Bukvich
J.R. Graham 88.3 5.61 3.06 0.71 91 0.7 Joe Coleman
Chasen Shreve 70.0 9.39 3.21 0.77 114 0.6 Felix Heredia
Jason Hursh 104.0 5.02 3.03 0.87 86 0.6 Preston Larrison
Gus Schlosser 122.3 5.96 3.68 0.81 86 0.6 Tim Byron
David D. Carpenter 66.7 9.04 2.83 0.81 113 0.6 Brian Falkenborg
Brandon Beachy 58.0 6.98 3.88 1.09 91 0.5 Bryan Kelly
Yean Carlos Gil 97.3 5.73 3.14 0.83 86 0.5 Ryan Spille
Anthony Varvaro 59.3 7.13 2.73 0.76 109 0.4 Todd Erdos
James Russell 57.0 7.11 3.00 0.79 105 0.3 Javier Lopez
David Bromberg 53.0 7.98 4.25 1.02 86 0.2 Jamie Brewington
Juan Jaime 49.7 11.77 7.24 0.72 100 0.1 Dwayne Henry
Chien-Ming Wang 124.0 3.77 2.90 0.80 79 0.1 Aaron Sele
Brandon Cunniff 52.7 8.71 4.61 0.85 97 0.1 Bob Gibson
Lucas Sims 130.7 6.40 4.34 1.10 79 0.0 Ryan Glynn
Ian Thomas 54.0 9.00 4.33 1.33 84 0.0 Billy Brewer
David Hale 102.7 5.35 4.38 0.96 80 0.0 Jose Segura
Arodys Vizcaino 53.0 7.64 4.25 1.02 86 0.0 Brandon Puffer
Luis Avilan 61.3 6.02 4.40 0.73 93 -0.1 Anthony Rawson
Donnie Veal 56.7 7.78 5.08 0.79 92 -0.1 Kevin Tolar
Mauricio Cabrera 69.3 6.49 6.75 0.78 77 -0.2 Blue Moon Odom
Kanekoa Texeira 52.3 5.16 4.65 1.03 76 -0.2 Jarod Juelsgaard
Zach Stewart 116.7 4.78 2.85 1.23 75 -0.4 Jim Magrane
Ryan Buchter 56.3 10.07 7.67 0.96 82 -0.4 Tim Fortugno
Jorge Reyes 73.0 8.14 4.81 1.11 83 -0.5 Adalberto Mendez
Jake Brigham 107.7 6.18 4.35 1.34 73 -0.5 Mike Heathcott
Tyrell Jenkins 67.3 5.08 4.28 1.34 69 -0.5 Chris Clemons
Pedro Beato 53.3 7.26 4.39 1.35 78 -0.6 Brad Tweedlie
Mitch Atkins 111.3 6.06 3.32 1.54 72 -0.6 Mike Heathcott
Greg Smith 131.3 4.52 2.60 1.37 72 -0.7 Andrew Lorraine
Sugar Ray Marimon 116.3 5.26 4.10 1.63 66 -1.3 Mike Romano

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.



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Shubox
Guest
Shubox
1 year 5 months ago

Comparing these to Steamer projections is pretty interesting, as ZiPS projects almost 8 WAR more for the starting 5 than Steamer does.

Anon21
Guest
Anon21
1 year 5 months ago

I’m very bullish on Wood. I think that if he stays on the field, he could have a 5-WAR season.

Dan Ugglas Forearm
Member
Dan Ugglas Forearm
1 year 5 months ago

He’d have to pitch really really well to get to 5 WAR. Jeff Samardzija had an 86 FIP- last season (what this projection sees for Wood), and that was good for 4.1 WAR in 219 IP. I’d be surprised if Wood ended up with more than 219 IP or better than an 86 FIP-. But still, he’s a fantastic pitcher.

Anon21
Guest
Anon21
1 year 5 months ago

Fair point. His rate stats look more impressive if you forget how completely pitchers are dominating the game right now.

Trochlis
Guest
Trochlis
1 year 5 months ago

So after looking at this my initial thought was that wood minor and miller were collectively too high. I don’t think the braves 2-4 will be able to produce 9 WAR i think it will be closer to 5, with wood pulling most of the wait at slightly above average (2.5). Also find it hard to believe that BJ will generate positive value this year. Also looking for a better year than 3 WAR for simmons as that would put his bat at around replacement level. ZiPS has the braves as a .500 team, it’s hard for me to see that especially after the finish they had last year. I see the braves as having a lot worse of lineup than last year probably finishing in the bottom 5 offenses and the pitching being around average to make them a low 70 wins team to finish 4th in the NL East

TKDC
Guest
TKDC
1 year 5 months ago

The Gattis projection is at catcher. And while he may not profile best there, he’s worse in left field. Braves will be lucky to get 1 WAR out of him. Agree on BJ, too, with the earlier comment. Will be lucky to get anything positive out of him.

stonepie
Guest
stonepie
1 year 5 months ago

can shelby beat his fip that much with the loss of heyward? that outfielder could be ugly if gattis winds up playing left all year.

Brooks
Guest
Brooks
1 year 5 months ago

Miller did fine in 2013 with an outfield of Holliday, Beltran, and Craig stinking up the joint, and Jay being below average. Heyward doesn’t have a great arm, so his defensive value boils down to his ability to turn hits into outs. But over his career Heyward on average makes about two plays a month that most other outfielders would not make. How often would those improbable catches be made while Miller is on the mound?

Brad
Guest
Brad
1 year 5 months ago

Miller’s issue this year is going to be not having Yadi behind the plate. Miller had his occasional struggles, but he was awful (and ended up booted from the rotation) when Yadi was hurt last year. Once he starts thinking what pitch he should throw it is all over for him.

Baltar
Guest
Baltar
1 year 5 months ago

Please don’t karate chop me, Dan. You could just bowl me over.
I am somewhat shocked to see the Braves adding up to what will be about an average WAR, but then I haven’t paid much attention to them this year.
As always, I just hope they don’t make the playoffs for the rest of my life, so I won’t have to see and hear that super annoying tomahawk chop thing.

Smurf
Guest
Smurf
1 year 5 months ago

For what it’s worth, there are a growing number of Braves fans that share your sentiment on the ‘chop. We’re in the minority, of course, but we do exist (and it seems there are more people every season).

We all want to support our team, though, so at the stadium many of us will begrudgingly ‘chop and chant anyways, just so that the players know we have their backs.

I’d love to see a new chant emerge. You know what? Let’s get on this, internet. Everyone think of a chant awesome enough to convince ATL to ditch the ‘chop. The better the idea, the more likely it’ll catch on, and the more likely the ‘chop will eventually be supplanted.

I mean, that’s kind of how it got started in ATL, anyways. All it took was a couple of FSU fans at Spring Training cheering on their Alumni.

Phantom Stranger
Guest
Phantom Stranger
1 year 5 months ago

Kind of pointless to run the Braves now, as I expect their roster to look far different in one month.

Ryan Brock
Member
Member
1 year 5 months ago

When will these hit player pages? Also, is there any simple (read as: lazy) way to compare steamer/zips projections? It seems like the baseline for pitchers is different, ie steamer is more conservative.

Unrelated: Yusmeiro Petit’s steamer projection is crazy. I think you guys have rate stats based on him being a RP, but he is projected to pitch more innings than any other pitcher (213).

Eric
Guest
Eric
1 year 5 months ago

Hoooly moly 4.3 wins for Teheran?

Didn’t realize he’s just turning 24 too, feel like he’s been around a lot longer

Dan Ugglas Forearm
Member
Dan Ugglas Forearm
1 year 5 months ago

His whole career gives you that feeling. Signed at 16, ascends to top prospect status, subject of prospect fatigue at age-21, ascends to very good MLB starter status, subject of very good MLB starter fatigue.

Smurf
Guest
Smurf
1 year 5 months ago

If the corner OF spots are Justin and Gattis and he still reaches that mark, then I would guess he will have had to put up a year for the history books, no?

I do think Teheran will have a great year, regardless.

Analyst
Guest
Analyst
1 year 5 months ago

Surprised at how highly Betancourt is rated, particularly the .263 BA.

Smurf
Guest
Smurf
1 year 5 months ago

That surprised me, as well.

I just noticed there are only two hitters projected to have OBP’s north of .309: Freeman and JUpton. YIKES.

deadpool
Guest
deadpool
1 year 5 months ago

Martin should be in the mix to win the 5th spot in the rotation. Of course, the Braves left him unprotected from the rule V draft, so who’s rotation that 5th spot belongs to will be decided shortly.

Smurf
Guest
Smurf
1 year 5 months ago

Wow, ATL (so far) is looking to have one miserable group of hitters next season. Hard to believe that a team with Andrelton Simmons on it might be one of the more unwatchable in MLB.

Over/Under on 95.5 loses?

I say over. Every single one of them will probably be one-run loses, but they’re likely to be there, IMO.

Atreyu Jones
Guest
Atreyu Jones
1 year 5 months ago

Why begin predicting teams’ wins when the offseason is only a month old?

Smurf
Guest
Smurf
1 year 5 months ago

Three reasons: I’m bored, I want to, and I can.

Steven Lerud
Guest
Steven Lerud
1 year 5 months ago

My No. 1 comp is Jayhawk Owens? Who? That name sounds fake, bro.

Alec Denton
Member
Member
1 year 5 months ago
LHPSU
Guest
LHPSU
1 year 5 months ago

I just learned that there is a pitcher named Sugar Ray Marimon.

Craig
Guest
Craig
1 year 5 months ago

In what manner is Brandon Cunniff’s player comp Bob Friggin Gibson?

Hrkac Circus
Guest
Hrkac Circus
1 year 5 months ago

The Bob Gibson from the Brewers, not THE Bob Gibson.

Calvin
Guest
Calvin
1 year 4 months ago

I think Wood becomes the ace by season’s end. The move to the bullpen last year actually hurt his numbers but kept his innings down. He should reach 200 IP this year and lead the team in Ks with similar ratios to Teheran.

John
Guest
John
1 year 3 months ago

What, no Eury Perez? He probably gets 400 ab’s for this team in 2015.

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