2015 ZiPS Projections – Detroit Tigers

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Detroit Tigers. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Atlanta / Chicago AL / Colorado / Los Angeles AL / Miami / Milwaukee / Oakland / San Francisco / St. Louis / Tampa Bay / Washington.

Batters
While it might seem as though, at points during his MVP rivalry with Mike Trout, that this site’s authors made it their business to convince all of America about how Miguel Cabrera was a worthless trash heap of a ballplayer, that’s very clearly not the case. What he is, in reality, is one of the most talented hitters in baseball history. Indeed, among all qualified hitters ever, Cabrera has produced the 26th-best park-adjusted batting line (tied with Joe DiMaggio, for example). Even a couple years after Cabrera’s 30th birthday, ZiPS still regards him as an elite batsman.

One thing Cabrera wasn’t, really, was a talented defensive third baseman. Two years ago, for example, ZiPS projected Cabrera to save -6 runs (or concede +6 runs, as it were) at third base. Not excellent, that. By way of comparison, however, consider current third baseman Nick Castellanos‘s projection at that same position: -12 runs saved (or +12 runs conceded, as it were). Even more not excellent, that. He’s forecast to produce an above-average batting line, but it would seem as though some manner of change — either moving off of, or steadily improving at, the position — is necessary.

Pitchers
The Tigers have featured some almost laughably talented rotations in recent years. Over the last three seasons, for example, Detroit starters have produced a collective 65.4 WAR. The distance between them and second-place Washington is roughly equivalent to the distance between Washington and 19th-place Milwaukee. The likely departure of Max Scherzer, however — coupled with the trade of Rick Porcello to Boston — renders the rotation less well balanced than in previous seasons. Alfredo Simon (a strike-thrower who features one of the league’s hardest fastballs) and Shane Greene (who recorded a 90 xFIP- last year in nearly 80 innings) aren’t without merits. It’s just, those merits don’t influence ZiPS’ computer math significantly at the moment.

The bullpen was also laughable at points in 2014, but not due to a surfeit of talent. Rather, they inspired the sort of laughter one produces after having just been informed he’s being audited by the IRS. Tiger relievers combined for either the fourth– or third-lowest WAR in the majors, depending on whether one uses FIP or ERA to calculate it. In either case, not great. Some positive regression is expected, but almost the same exact personnel returns and it remains a weak area for the club.

Bench/Prospects
The club’s commitment to winning in the present has necessarily come at the expense of their future — at least so far as high-end prospects are concerned. Catcher James McCann isn’t elite, but serves as a possible alternative to Bryan Holaday in the backup catcher role, or as an adequate injury replacement for Alex Avila. Shortstop Dixon Machado plays above-average defense at that position and recorded a positive walk-to-strikeout differential as a 22-year-old last year at Double-A Erie. He offers a promising skill set. Among starting-pitcher prospects, only Kyle Lobstein and Drew VerHagen are projected to produce something better than replacement-level innings.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Tigers, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Tigers Depth Chart

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Miguel Cabrera R 32 1B 657 90 179 39 1 31 113 3 1
Ian Kinsler R 33 2B 675 88 167 35 4 15 76 15 7
Yoenis Cespedes R 29 LF 627 88 159 29 5 27 103 10 4
Alex Avila L 28 C 454 43 89 20 1 12 53 1 1
Victor Martinez B 36 DH 530 58 145 27 0 18 79 1 1
J.D. Martinez R 27 LF 527 57 138 28 3 21 90 5 2
Nick Castellanos R 23 3B 621 61 160 34 4 17 77 3 2
James McCann R 25 C 437 39 100 23 0 6 40 6 2
Anthony Gose L 24 CF 575 66 133 19 6 6 44 34 13
Dixon Machado R 23 SS 432 43 96 20 2 4 31 6 4
Hernan Perez R 24 SS 572 56 141 24 4 6 45 20 6
Jose Iglesias R 25 SS 413 38 96 11 1 3 30 9 4
Manny Pina R 28 C 262 25 56 10 0 5 22 1 0
Bryan Holaday R 27 C 278 23 59 11 1 3 25 2 1
Miguel Gonzalez R 24 C 214 20 48 9 1 2 18 1 1
Rajai Davis R 34 LF 431 54 107 21 2 6 39 35 10
Mike Hessman R 37 1B 438 51 89 17 1 24 59 2 2
Daniel Fields L 24 CF 437 42 97 17 4 7 37 14 5
Don Kelly L 35 3B 203 23 42 5 1 3 13 3 1
Brandon Douglas R 29 2B 411 36 92 15 2 4 30 9 3
Craig Albernaz R 32 C 157 11 28 4 0 0 8 3 1
Andrew Romine B 29 SS 397 40 86 10 1 3 25 13 5
Xavier Avery L 25 LF 521 58 117 21 2 6 41 23 8
Steven Moya L 23 RF 510 55 115 23 3 21 64 10 3
Tyler Collins L 25 LF 541 54 119 21 2 15 59 9 4
Sea Bass Gonzalez R 38 SS 59 6 11 1 1 0 5 0 0
Wade Gaynor R 27 3B 485 43 88 22 2 11 45 8 2
Marcus Lemon L 27 2B 306 26 65 10 2 2 20 3 4
Jordan Lennerton L 29 1B 540 51 106 21 1 13 49 0 2
Wynton Bernard R 24 RF 597 61 136 26 3 6 43 27 17
Mean Dean Green L 26 1B 436 39 100 19 1 8 42 1 1
Trevor Crowe B 31 LF 320 31 70 13 1 4 27 10 7

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA
Miguel Cabrera 657 10.5% 16.0% .232 .330 .310 .382 .542 .386
Ian Kinsler 675 6.7% 10.7% .143 .285 .272 .326 .415 .326
Yoenis Cespedes 627 6.2% 19.1% .207 .303 .275 .324 .482 .349
Alex Avila 454 13.2% 30.4% .150 .320 .229 .333 .379 .317
Victor Martinez 530 8.3% 8.7% .170 .302 .303 .360 .473 .348
J.D. Martinez 527 6.1% 23.9% .200 .339 .283 .328 .483 .352
Nick Castellanos 621 6.4% 19.6% .162 .326 .280 .327 .442 .335
James McCann 437 3.7% 21.3% .101 .298 .244 .280 .345 .278
Anthony Gose 575 7.0% 22.8% .094 .328 .254 .314 .348 .299
Dixon Machado 432 7.6% 16.4% .092 .290 .246 .307 .338 .287
Hernan Perez 572 3.8% 13.8% .092 .295 .262 .292 .354 .287
Jose Iglesias 413 4.6% 15.0% .058 .294 .253 .298 .311 .271
Manny Pina 262 6.1% 16.4% .105 .264 .234 .288 .339 .280
Bryan Holaday 278 5.0% 19.8% .087 .281 .232 .277 .319 .263
Miguel Gonzalez 214 5.1% 18.2% .086 .291 .242 .288 .328 .273
Rajai Davis 431 4.9% 16.9% .107 .312 .268 .310 .375 .309
Mike Hessman 438 7.3% 29.7% .228 .260 .223 .281 .451 .317
Daniel Fields 437 5.5% 27.2% .114 .321 .241 .291 .355 .290
Don Kelly 203 9.4% 14.8% .088 .262 .232 .307 .320 .282
Brandon Douglas 411 4.9% 16.5% .082 .283 .241 .283 .323 .270
Craig Albernaz 157 3.8% 24.8% .028 .267 .196 .237 .224 .206
Andrew Romine 397 6.3% 19.1% .058 .291 .237 .289 .295 .263
Xavier Avery 521 7.3% 24.0% .091 .324 .248 .307 .339 .291
Steven Moya 510 3.3% 32.7% .189 .310 .236 .263 .425 .300
Tyler Collins 541 6.3% 22.0% .141 .282 .238 .290 .379 .297
Sea Bass Gonzalez 59 3.4% 20.3% .053 .244 .193 .220 .246 .209
Wade Gaynor 485 5.6% 34.0% .131 .279 .196 .248 .327 .258
Marcus Lemon 306 4.9% 21.6% .070 .289 .228 .268 .298 .248
Jordan Lennerton 540 9.8% 27.0% .129 .286 .220 .299 .349 .289
Wynton Bernard 597 6.2% 18.9% .092 .303 .249 .301 .341 .281
Mean Dean Green 436 4.6% 21.3% .111 .299 .246 .291 .357 .287
Trevor Crowe 320 5.9% 17.2% .091 .274 .235 .279 .326 .268

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Miguel Cabrera 657 8.1 149 2 4.8 Frank Thomas
Ian Kinsler 675 5.0 101 8 3.5 Damion Easley
Yoenis Cespedes 627 5.9 116 5 3.1 Mike Devereaux
Alex Avila 454 4.4 94 -1 2.3 Rick Wilkins
Victor Martinez 530 6.6 125 0 2.0 Harold Baines
J.D. Martinez 527 6.0 118 -4 1.8 Jermaine Dye
Nick Castellanos 621 5.4 108 -12 1.6 Fernando Tatis
James McCann 437 3.5 70 6 1.4 Robert Machado
Anthony Gose 575 4.1 81 3 1.4 Everett Graham
Dixon Machado 432 3.7 76 5 1.2 Howie Clark
Hernan Perez 572 3.9 76 2 1.2 Gary Cates
Jose Iglesias 413 3.4 67 6 0.9 Mike Gallego
Manny Pina 262 3.5 71 -1 0.4 Pedro Grifol
Bryan Holaday 278 3.1 63 1 0.3 Angelo Encarnacion
Miguel Gonzalez 214 3.3 68 0 0.3 Mike Knapp
Rajai Davis 431 4.7 86 -2 0.2 Dan Gladden
Mike Hessman 438 4.4 96 0 0.1 Deron Johnson
Daniel Fields 437 3.8 76 -3 0.1 Mike Stellern
Don Kelly 203 3.5 72 -2 -0.1 Dan Rohn
Brandon Douglas 411 3.3 65 1 -0.1 Casey Smith
Craig Albernaz 157 1.9 27 4 -0.1 Charlie Greene
Andrew Romine 397 3.1 60 -1 -0.2 Frank Mattox
Xavier Avery 521 3.9 76 0 -0.3 Raphael Hampton
Steven Moya 510 4.0 84 -2 -0.3 Tate Seefried
Tyler Collins 541 3.9 81 -3 -0.5 Brad Bierley
Sea Bass Gonzalez 59 1.8 27 -2 -0.5 Mark Belanger
Wade Gaynor 485 2.8 56 2 -0.6 David Maroul
Marcus Lemon 306 2.6 55 1 -0.6 Frank Moore
Jordan Lennerton 540 3.5 76 3 -0.7 Todd Mensik
Wynton Bernard 597 3.5 75 -1 -0.9 Joel Wolfe
Mean Dean Green 436 3.7 76 -1 -1.0 Guillermo Velasquez
Trevor Crowe 320 3.1 65 -2 -1.1 Doug Dascenzo

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER
Max Scherzer R 30 31 31 200.0 231 58 18 171 76 71
David Price L 29 31 31 210.7 204 40 23 210 92 86
Justin Verlander R 32 31 31 202.3 183 60 18 196 91 85
Anibal Sanchez R 31 26 25 152.0 138 40 11 143 62 58
Shane Greene R 26 29 26 140.7 115 53 14 150 75 70
Alfredo Simon R 34 25 25 152.7 94 47 17 168 83 78
Blaine Hardy L 28 47 7 78.7 72 28 8 76 36 34
Joakim Soria R 31 41 0 36.7 38 10 3 34 15 14
Drew VerHagen R 24 22 22 116.3 58 39 11 134 68 64
Al Alburquerque R 29 58 0 50.7 62 22 6 44 22 21
Joe Nathan R 40 54 0 50.0 49 21 4 46 22 21
Kyle Lobstein L 25 29 28 155.7 107 58 19 177 95 89
Bruce Rondon R 24 44 0 39.7 39 20 4 38 20 19
Joba Chamberlain R 29 53 0 50.0 45 20 5 50 26 24
Alex Wilson R 28 53 0 66.0 48 27 7 67 34 32
Joel Hanrahan R 32 49 0 44.0 47 26 6 39 22 21
Phil Coke L 32 58 0 51.0 40 18 5 55 27 25
Ian Krol L 24 58 0 49.7 45 16 7 51 27 25
Chad Smith R 25 39 3 58.0 41 21 7 64 33 31
Evan Reed R 29 48 0 60.0 45 27 5 64 33 31
Bryan Augenstein R 28 28 0 44.7 30 17 5 50 27 25
Daniel Schlereth L 29 26 0 25.7 20 18 3 28 17 16
Luke Putkonen R 29 30 0 38.0 29 17 5 42 24 22
Jose Valdez R 25 45 0 45.0 42 30 6 46 28 26
Guido Knudson R 25 37 1 57.3 43 25 8 63 35 33
Omar Duran L 25 35 0 48.3 49 37 6 47 30 28
Buck Farmer R 24 22 20 93.7 71 34 17 107 63 59
Jheyson Manzueta R 25 35 0 58.7 38 27 7 66 36 34
Lefty Below L 29 22 15 87.0 43 35 13 106 60 56
Josh Zeid R 28 51 0 51.7 44 26 8 56 33 31
Joshua Turley L 24 26 21 122.7 74 47 19 143 82 77
Angel Nesbitt R 24 51 0 61.7 47 28 9 67 39 36
Alberto Cabrera R 26 45 5 83.0 69 39 14 91 54 50
Warwick Saupold R 25 26 20 111.0 71 55 18 129 78 73
Melvin Mercedes R 24 51 0 58.7 29 17 10 72 41 38
Will Startup L 30 37 0 54.7 29 23 10 67 41 38
Tim Melville R 25 16 16 69.0 42 45 13 84 56 52
Kyle Ryan L 23 27 24 136.3 68 45 25 168 98 92
Derek Hankins R 31 25 19 108.0 41 36 22 143 86 80
Shawn Hill R 34 20 18 106.7 41 37 23 143 88 82
Edgar De La Rosa R 24 25 23 113.3 57 59 23 142 92 86

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Max Scherzer 200.0 829 27.9% 7.0% .296 3.19 3.27 80 82
David Price 210.7 882 23.1% 4.5% .306 3.67 3.57 92 89
Justin Verlander 202.3 863 21.2% 7.0% .298 3.78 3.76 94 94
Anibal Sanchez 152.0 639 21.6% 6.3% .295 3.43 3.43 86 86
Shane Greene 140.7 625 18.4% 8.5% .313 4.48 4.44 112 111
Alfredo Simon 152.7 673 14.0% 7.0% .298 4.60 4.70 115 117
Blaine Hardy 78.7 340 21.2% 8.2% .298 3.89 4.12 97 103
Joakim Soria 36.7 154 24.7% 6.5% .307 3.44 3.29 86 82
Drew VerHagen 116.3 522 11.1% 7.5% .302 4.95 4.85 123 121
Al Alburquerque 50.7 218 28.4% 10.1% .304 3.73 3.93 93 98
Joe Nathan 50.0 217 22.6% 9.7% .296 3.78 3.70 94 92
Kyle Lobstein 155.7 702 15.2% 8.3% .310 5.15 4.94 128 123
Bruce Rondon 39.7 177 22.0% 11.3% .301 4.31 4.41 108 110
Joba Chamberlain 50.0 220 20.5% 9.1% .304 4.32 4.18 108 104
Alex Wilson 66.0 292 16.4% 9.2% .291 4.36 4.77 109 119
Joel Hanrahan 44.0 197 23.9% 13.2% .282 4.30 4.96 107 124
Phil Coke 51.0 226 17.7% 8.0% .309 4.41 4.07 110 101
Ian Krol 49.7 216 20.8% 7.4% .301 4.53 4.41 113 110
Chad Smith 58.0 259 15.8% 8.1% .305 4.81 4.82 120 120
Evan Reed 60.0 271 16.6% 10.0% .311 4.65 4.56 116 114
Bryan Augenstein 44.7 201 14.9% 8.5% .306 5.04 4.80 126 120
Daniel Schlereth 25.7 123 16.2% 14.6% .308 5.61 5.31 140 132
Luke Putkonen 38.0 173 16.8% 9.8% .308 5.21 5.16 130 129
Jose Valdez 45.0 211 19.9% 14.2% .308 5.20 5.48 130 137
Guido Knudson 57.3 260 16.5% 9.6% .304 5.18 5.16 129 129
Omar Duran 48.3 229 21.4% 16.2% .306 5.21 5.49 130 137
Buck Farmer 93.7 422 16.8% 8.1% .307 5.67 5.64 141 141
Jheyson Manzueta 58.7 269 14.1% 10.0% .306 5.22 5.27 130 131
Lefty Below 87.0 402 10.7% 8.7% .304 5.79 5.78 144 144
Josh Zeid 51.7 237 18.6% 11.0% .307 5.40 5.30 135 132
Joshua Turley 122.7 558 13.3% 8.4% .302 5.65 5.63 141 140
Angel Nesbitt 61.7 280 16.8% 10.0% .302 5.25 5.36 131 134
Alberto Cabrera 83.0 379 18.2% 10.3% .306 5.42 5.49 135 137
Warwick Saupold 111.0 517 13.7% 10.6% .303 5.92 5.98 148 149
Melvin Mercedes 58.7 265 10.9% 6.4% .301 5.83 5.68 145 142
Will Startup 54.7 254 11.4% 9.1% .301 6.26 6.22 156 155
Tim Melville 69.0 336 12.5% 13.4% .306 6.78 6.84 169 171
Kyle Ryan 136.3 622 10.9% 7.2% .300 6.07 6.01 151 150
Derek Hankins 108.0 503 8.2% 7.2% .305 6.67 6.54 166 163
Shawn Hill 106.7 500 8.2% 7.4% .306 6.92 6.72 173 168
Edgar De La Rosa 113.3 541 10.5% 10.9% .302 6.83 6.83 170 170

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Max Scherzer 200.0 10.40 2.61 0.81 128 5.3 Kevin Appier
David Price 210.7 8.71 1.71 0.98 112 4.3 Greg Swindell
Justin Verlander 202.3 8.14 2.67 0.80 108 3.8 Tim Belcher
Anibal Sanchez 152.0 8.17 2.37 0.65 119 3.5 A.J. Burnett
Shane Greene 140.7 7.36 3.39 0.90 92 1.4 Jason Grimsley
Alfredo Simon 152.7 5.54 2.77 1.00 89 1.3 Aaron Sele
Blaine Hardy 78.7 8.23 3.20 0.91 105 0.9 Dave Rucker
Joakim Soria 36.7 9.32 2.45 0.74 119 0.4 Marvin Freeman
Drew VerHagen 116.3 4.49 3.02 0.85 83 0.4 Michael Macdonald
Al Alburquerque 50.7 11.01 3.91 1.07 110 0.4 Ryne Duren
Joe Nathan 50.0 8.82 3.78 0.72 108 0.4 Greg Harris
Kyle Lobstein 155.7 6.18 3.35 1.10 80 0.2 Nate Robertson
Bruce Rondon 39.7 8.84 4.53 0.91 95 0.0 Santiago Casilla
Joba Chamberlain 50.0 8.10 3.60 0.90 95 0.0 David Holdridge
Alex Wilson 66.0 6.55 3.68 0.95 94 0.0 Matt Ryan
Joel Hanrahan 44.0 9.61 5.32 1.23 93 0.0 Frank LaCorte
Phil Coke 51.0 7.06 3.18 0.88 93 0.0 C.J. Nitkowski
Ian Krol 49.7 8.15 2.90 1.27 90 -0.1 Tom Meagher
Chad Smith 58.0 6.36 3.26 1.09 85 -0.1 Jason Cole
Evan Reed 60.0 6.75 4.05 0.75 88 -0.2 Mike Bumstead
Bryan Augenstein 44.7 6.04 3.42 1.01 81 -0.4 John Koronka
Daniel Schlereth 25.7 7.00 6.30 1.05 73 -0.4 Scott Forster
Luke Putkonen 38.0 6.87 4.03 1.18 79 -0.4 Keith Shepherd
Jose Valdez 45.0 8.40 6.00 1.20 79 -0.5 Ryan Henderson
Guido Knudson 57.3 6.75 3.93 1.26 79 -0.5 Buddy Carlyle
Omar Duran 48.3 9.13 6.89 1.12 79 -0.5 Carl Schutz
Buck Farmer 93.7 6.82 3.27 1.63 72 -0.5 Justin Pope
Jheyson Manzueta 58.7 5.83 4.14 1.07 79 -0.7 Joe Davenport
Lefty Below 87.0 4.45 3.62 1.34 71 -0.7 Benj Sampson
Josh Zeid 51.7 7.66 4.53 1.39 76 -0.7 Mike James
Joshua Turley 122.7 5.43 3.45 1.39 73 -0.7 Derrick van Dusen
Angel Nesbitt 61.7 6.86 4.08 1.31 78 -0.7 Steve Avery
Alberto Cabrera 83.0 7.48 4.23 1.52 76 -0.7 Mumba Rivera
Warwick Saupold 111.0 5.76 4.46 1.46 69 -1.0 Steve Buckholz
Melvin Mercedes 58.7 4.45 2.61 1.53 70 -1.1 Rob Dibble
Will Startup 54.7 4.77 3.78 1.65 66 -1.4 Rusty Gerhardt
Tim Melville 69.0 5.48 5.87 1.70 60 -1.4 Mike Gordon
Kyle Ryan 136.3 4.49 2.97 1.65 68 -1.5 Mike Rochford
Derek Hankins 108.0 3.42 3.00 1.83 61 -2.1 Jason Roach
Shawn Hill 106.7 3.46 3.12 1.94 59 -2.3 R.A. Dickey
Edgar De La Rosa 113.3 4.53 4.69 1.83 60 -2.4 Bill Malloy

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.



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Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
Detroit Michael
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Detroit Michael
1 year 4 months ago

I’m surprised there is a 0.48 difference in projected ERA between Scherzer and Price according to ZiPS. I wonder if they are projecting free agent Scherzer to be backed by an average defense, instead of by the subpar Tiger defenders who are behind Price.

george
Guest
george
1 year 4 months ago

Tigers defense is stacking up to be at least average, in my view. Gose, Iglesias, and Cespedes are all improvements from last year.

the fume
Guest
the fume
1 year 4 months ago

If you look at the ZiPS for the likely starters, it’s slightly above average as a whole. Castellanos is the only gaping hole, and Rajai, JD are the only other guys in the negative.

Josh
Guest
Josh
1 year 4 months ago

Scherzer has maintained lower ERAs in worse environments the past 2 years. I think it’s more of an indication that he’s a beast than anything else.

yyzanonymous
Guest
yyzanonymous
1 year 4 months ago

Um, Sea Bass Gonzalez? Is there a story there?

Josh
Guest
Josh
1 year 4 months ago

ZiPS always calls him that. goes back to his Red Sox days iirc. I’m sure you can find something on BTF about it

Josh
Guest
Josh
1 year 4 months ago
Milhouse
Guest
Milhouse
1 year 4 months ago

In what dumbshit universe is Scherzer’s comp Kevin Appier?

Jaunty Rockefeller
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Jaunty Rockefeller
1 year 4 months ago

Appier was pretty boss for a couple of years there.

Yosted
Guest
Yosted
1 year 4 months ago

Appier had a 7 year span where he had >5 WAR each year, with the exception of the strike shortened season where he still hit 4.3.

Perpetually Cynical Mets Fan
Guest
Perpetually Cynical Mets Fan
1 year 4 months ago

…and average or better every season thereafter until his age-36 season. Appier was sneakily an excellent major leaguer for over a decade.

BaseballGuy
Guest
BaseballGuy
1 year 4 months ago

Appier’s arguably better. Look it up before using language like that.

KHAZAD
Guest
KHAZAD
1 year 4 months ago

What Batshit Crazy person would think it was an insult to be compared to Appier?

Appier was clearly a better pitcher through age 29 than Scherzer. He had a lower ERA, lower FIP, a crapload more WAR, (either version), more wins,and he averaged more innings per season.

He had a much better ERA+ and FIP-, and his two best seasons were better than any season Scherzer has had thus far.

If anything, Scherzer should be glad that he got an upgrade.

Drew
Guest
1 year 4 months ago

Ummm…am I the only one who is trying to figure out who is insulted by the comp, Appier or Scherzer?

indyralph
Member
Member
indyralph
1 year 4 months ago

I’m not sure why anyone needs to be insulted when comparing a 5 win pitcher to another 5 win pitcher. Seems like admiration all around to me.

Nelson
Guest
Nelson
1 year 4 months ago

Huge improvement for Castellanos, and way higher projections than Steamer

Corey
Member
Corey
1 year 4 months ago

I’d be thrilled if Gose hit .254 and Cespedes puts up those numbers.

Chad
Guest
1 year 4 months ago

Decent summary but nobody is catching Miguel Cabrera basepaths this year.

Josh
Guest
Josh
1 year 4 months ago

couple of things intrigue me:

– ZiPS really believes in a Verlander comeback. there can’t be very many data points in history that are similar to Verlander. I think the only way he returns to being almost a 4 win pitcher is if he was hiding a significant injury

– a 3.78 ERA for Verlander corresponds to a 94 ERA-. seems like that would be projecting a league-wide bump in offense. Tigers D should be better with Iglesias and no Hunter.

– a 3.76 FIP over 202 IP corresponds to a 3.8 WAR. Porcello had 202 IP last year with a 3.65 FIP and that equated to only 3.2 WAR. again, seems like ZiPS is maybe projecting a bounceback in league-wide offense?

the fume
Guest
the fume
1 year 4 months ago

He missed 1 start with a shoulder issue and had core muscle surgery about a year ago. I don’t think he was hiding any of this but I think they had *some* impact. How much of an impact, we don’t know.

asdfds
Guest
asdfds
1 year 4 months ago

I’ve heard a lot of hyperbole about Verlander’s 2014 season but your comment takes the cake. His drop off was surprising but not historic. Ever heard of Steve Blass? Anyways, Verlander ended up being worth 3 WAR last season after five straight years above 5 WAR. Also, he was coming off a core muscle surgery which more than likely affected him throughout the season. I will not be surprised if JV bounces back in 2015.

Eric
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Eric
1 year 4 months ago

there is no way steven moya has that good of a year this year. It would be nice, but he is still way too green a prospect.

the fume
Guest
the fume
1 year 4 months ago

What don’t you believe about it? Is the 33% K-rate is too low??!

Derb
Guest
Derb
1 year 4 months ago

Yeah, I think that’s a pretty accurate projection for what we know about Moya: good power, lot of K’s, few walks. He really needs to go down to Toledo and show better plate discipline – without losing any power – to be considered a prospect to get excited about.

Eric
Guest
Eric
1 year 4 months ago

no its the production part of it I don’t believe, the runs, rbi’s and homers. OH, trust me, I believe he will whiff, but he is not going to whiff as high as 33%, a lot lower.

EthanB
Member
EthanB
1 year 4 months ago

“ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.”

AL ERA last year was 3.82 and NL was 3.66 so yep, looks like it.

EthanB
Member
EthanB
1 year 4 months ago

That should be a replay to Josh’s comment above.

Josh
Guest
Josh
1 year 4 months ago

I missed that. I always jump to the good stuff in these articles. good spot. thanks.

Don Baylor's knee
Guest
Don Baylor's knee
1 year 4 months ago

So Zips isn’t published on BBTF anymore… is there someplace to see the Zips team report the way it used to be on BBTF? I’d really like to see the likelihood of events for these players but can’t find it ANYWHERE

Josh
Guest
Josh
1 year 4 months ago

I miss those too

Tyler
Guest
Tyler
1 year 4 months ago

Me too

Jim
Guest
Jim
1 year 4 months ago

I’m confused by the wOBAs. Cespedes is projected for .275/.328/.482 with a .349 wOBA, Victor Martinez is projected for .303/.360/.473 with a .348 wOBA. Shouldn’t V-Mart’s heavy advantage in OBP outweigh Cespedes’ power advantage?

Paul
Guest
Paul
1 year 4 months ago

IBB’s don’t count towards wOBA, so that might be the difference. Over the past 3 years respectively, V-Mart has 6, 10, and 28 (!) IBB’s while Cespedes has 5, 5, and 3.

MJJ
Guest
MJJ
1 year 4 months ago

expecting some big things from mike hessman this year.

Dcer
Guest
Dcer
1 year 4 months ago

How are PAs calculated? JD Martinez with the third highest OPS+ and starting. RFer yet only 527 PAs? Seems weird.

Rob
Guest
Rob
1 year 4 months ago

I’ll take the under on Miggy’s projected PAs (657!). He may not even start his season until May recovering from his broken foot (see MASH report). The skills are still there, but the body appears too fragile to hold up for an entire season anymore.

This quote regarding his injury is pretty concerning: “Cabrera is as tough as you can possibly be,” GM Dave Dombrowski said Friday. “It’s worse than what we ever would have anticipated.”

NJ
Guest
NJ
1 year 4 months ago

How are the comps made? Like is it a comp of the season or is it of the guy that is most similar to the player so far in their career?

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