2016 ZiPS Projections – Arizona Diamondbacks

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Arizona Diamondbacks. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago NL / Cincinnati / Cleveland / Kansas City / New York AL / Philadelphia / Pittsburgh / Seattle / Texas / Toronto.

Batters
Given the moves made by general manager Dave Stewart et al. this offseason — the signing of Zack Greinke, the exchange with Atlanta of three promising and cost-controlled pieces for Shelby Miller — it’s pretty clear that the club’s ambition is to win now. Of great assistance to that particular cause are Paul Goldschmidt and A.J. Pollock, both of whom had great seasons in 2015 and are projected by ZiPS to produce just over nine wins in 2016. They form a strong nucleus for the club.

Less strong are the parts surrounding that nucleus — the club’s figurative cytoplasm, to extend the metaphor clumsily. With the exception of indy league success story David Peralta, no other position player receives a forecast from ZiPS of two wins or more. The departure of Ender Inciarte appears to have created no little difficulty. The author of consecutive three-win seasons for Arizona, his absence compels the team to rely heavily on Yasmany Tomas, the author of one negative-wins season, to rebound from his difficult rookie campaign. ZiPS is pessimistic about Tomas offering anything much better than a replacement-level performance.

Pitchers
Diamondbacks starters combined for roughly six wins in 2015, the third-worst mark among all rotations in the majors. Which, this reveals one certain benefit of signing Zack Greinke: he’s a candidate, in any given year, to create that sort of production all by himself. And Dan Szymborski’s computer almost suggests as much. Because it’s a projection system and basically designed to crush optimism, ZiPS projects Greinke for a mere 5.2 WAR in 2016. Still, that’s a great foundation — one which, combined with Shelby Miller’s forecast (185.0 IP, 3.0 zWAR), requires the complement of only replacement-level innings for Arizona’s 2016 rotation to surpass the 2015 edition.

As for the bullpen, it’s not the strongest to have been featured among these ZiPS posts thus far. It does feature a curious trait, however, where these forecasts are concerned. Because consider: while, for all intents and purposes, Silvio Bracho and Andrew Chapin appear likely to begin the season as the fourth and fifth options out of the D-backs’ bullpen, they’re also the recipients of that bullpen’s top forecasts — by WAR and by FIP- and and by ERA- (even if Ziegler is at least tied with Chafin by that least measure).

Bench/Prospects
Inciarte recorded a number of plate appearances in 2015 as Peralta’s platoon partner. Who precisely will fill that role is unclear. The author has inserted Phil Gosselin‘s name (393 PA, 1.0 zWAR) into the depth-chart graphic below, but has done do without much conviction. Not-catcher Peter O’Brien (479 PA, -0.5 zWAR) is another possible option. Among Arizona’s rookie-eligible position players, Brandon Drury (646 PA, 1.3 zWAR) receives the top projection, while Braden Shipley‘s (132.1 IP, 0.6 zWAR) is best among pitchers.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the D-backs, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

D-backs Depth

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats
Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Paul Goldschmidt R 28 1B 609 85 146 34 2 27 94 16 5
A.J. Pollock R 28 CF 535 79 143 31 6 13 52 24 5
David Peralta L 28 LF 550 62 146 28 10 16 78 8 4
Welington Castillo R 29 C 393 38 88 18 0 14 48 1 0
Nick Ahmed R 26 SS 517 53 116 22 5 7 42 11 6
Jake Lamb L 25 3B 436 45 97 21 4 9 44 3 1
Brandon Drury R 23 3B 646 64 154 37 2 12 68 4 6
Jarrod Saltalamacchia B 31 C 358 39 71 19 0 13 40 1 1
Phil Gosselin R 27 2B 393 44 97 20 3 6 36 4 2
Chris Owings R 24 2B 538 59 128 26 6 7 48 15 3
Jamie Romak R 30 3B 509 55 105 28 2 18 62 4 1
Aaron Hill R 34 2B 416 42 96 21 2 9 49 5 3
Socrates Brito L 23 RF 578 62 143 22 8 10 55 20 7
Joaquin Arias R 31 SS 192 17 47 9 1 2 18 1 0
Todd Glaesmann R 25 CF 412 44 93 22 3 12 46 5 2
Matt Pagnozzi R 33 C 257 23 50 7 1 5 20 0 0
Colin Bray B 23 CF 396 36 83 16 4 4 31 12 7
Chris Herrmann L 28 C 317 33 62 14 2 5 29 2 1
Stryker Trahan L 22 C 468 45 84 24 2 18 56 3 1
Tuffy Gosewisch R 32 C 188 13 39 10 0 2 17 1 1
Jack Reinheimer R 23 SS 581 58 130 22 4 6 47 18 8
Yasmany Tomas R 25 RF 492 52 124 23 3 17 59 5 3
Carlos Rivero R 28 3B 466 42 105 18 1 8 40 2 2
Oscar Hernandez R 22 C 221 21 46 10 1 3 19 1 3
Gerald Laird R 36 C 98 8 21 5 0 0 7 0 0
Garrett Weber R 27 2B 435 44 100 19 3 7 41 2 2
Danny Worth R 30 SS 357 30 66 17 2 4 27 5 2
Blake Lalli L 33 C 292 26 64 11 0 4 24 0 2
Kyle Jensen R 28 RF 489 57 101 25 2 19 63 1 1
Cody Ransom R 40 SS 157 13 29 8 1 4 16 0 0
Mitch Haniger R 25 CF 383 41 84 18 3 8 38 5 2
Jordan Pacheco R 30 2B 291 25 66 15 1 3 27 2 0
Domingo Leyba B 20 SS 492 43 109 21 3 3 34 7 7
Peter O’Brien R 25 LF 479 59 105 25 4 23 73 0 1
Brett Hayes R 32 C 195 17 38 9 0 6 18 1 0
Raul Navarro R 24 SS 403 35 86 13 2 1 25 8 8
Gabby Guerrero R 22 RF 541 54 121 23 4 11 52 11 4
Jason Bourgeois R 34 CF 375 42 88 13 3 2 28 10 5
Rudy Flores L 25 1B 465 44 92 20 1 14 50 1 2

***

Batters, Rates and Averages
Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA
Paul Goldschmidt 609 15.4% 22.7% .235 .342 .288 .397 .523 .382
A.J. Pollock 535 7.3% 14.8% .168 .324 .293 .345 .461 .359
David Peralta 550 7.5% 19.1% .192 .339 .293 .347 .485 .360
Welington Castillo 393 7.1% 23.4% .169 .295 .249 .314 .418 .317
Nick Ahmed 517 5.6% 17.4% .111 .284 .243 .287 .354 .285
Jake Lamb 436 8.5% 27.1% .143 .327 .247 .314 .390 .307
Brandon Drury 646 4.5% 17.2% .127 .291 .254 .293 .381 .298
Jarrod Saltalamacchia 358 10.3% 33.5% .183 .310 .225 .304 .408 .308
Phil Gosselin 393 4.3% 17.8% .120 .312 .265 .303 .385 .299
Chris Owings 538 4.5% 22.5% .117 .319 .253 .289 .370 .290
Jamie Romak 509 6.9% 29.3% .186 .288 .226 .283 .412 .302
Aaron Hill 416 7.0% 15.1% .138 .279 .253 .308 .391 .308
Socrates Brito 578 3.8% 20.8% .123 .313 .259 .287 .382 .300
Joaquin Arias 192 2.6% 14.6% .093 .292 .257 .279 .350 .268
Todd Glaesmann 412 3.4% 28.2% .164 .306 .238 .270 .402 .293
Matt Pagnozzi 257 6.2% 24.5% .102 .269 .214 .272 .316 .256
Colin Bray 396 5.6% 26.8% .100 .310 .229 .277 .329 .276
Chris Herrmann 317 7.3% 24.9% .115 .277 .215 .276 .330 .267
Stryker Trahan 468 5.6% 40.6% .188 .286 .193 .240 .381 .268
Tuffy Gosewisch 188 3.7% 18.6% .089 .259 .218 .250 .307 .248
Jack Reinheimer 581 5.2% 20.0% .089 .295 .241 .284 .330 .279
Yasmany Tomas 492 4.1% 22.8% .171 .314 .264 .297 .435 .320
Carlos Rivero 466 4.9% 23.8% .101 .302 .241 .280 .342 .273
Oscar Hernandez 221 4.1% 24.9% .103 .289 .224 .265 .327 .264
Gerald Laird 98 7.1% 16.3% .056 .284 .236 .296 .292 .264
Garrett Weber 435 5.1% 23.0% .113 .310 .247 .293 .360 .289
Danny Worth 357 7.6% 31.9% .102 .297 .202 .265 .304 .257
Blake Lalli 292 5.1% 19.2% .085 .279 .234 .275 .319 .259
Kyle Jensen 489 6.3% 31.7% .192 .294 .224 .280 .416 .301
Cody Ransom 157 5.1% 35.0% .150 .278 .197 .236 .347 .252
Mitch Haniger 383 6.0% 23.0% .137 .293 .240 .291 .377 .293
Jordan Pacheco 291 6.2% 15.1% .098 .284 .248 .300 .346 .283
Domingo Leyba 492 3.7% 17.7% .078 .281 .236 .266 .314 .261
Peter O’Brien 479 4.6% 32.2% .228 .298 .234 .276 .462 .315
Brett Hayes 195 3.1% 27.2% .146 .252 .205 .233 .351 .251
Raul Navarro 403 5.5% 23.3% .054 .305 .231 .278 .285 .259
Gabby Guerrero 541 3.5% 28.5% .124 .309 .234 .261 .358 .275
Jason Bourgeois 375 5.1% 12.0% .071 .281 .250 .290 .321 .279
Rudy Flores 465 4.3% 41.5% .148 .338 .211 .256 .359 .270

***

Batters, Assorted Other
Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Paul Goldschmidt 609 8.0 150 6 4.8 Jeff Bagwell
A.J. Pollock 535 6.4 119 7 4.3 Carl Furillo
David Peralta 550 6.4 125 -2 2.5 Andre Ethier
Welington Castillo 393 4.7 99 -4 1.7 Charles Johnson
Nick Ahmed 517 3.6 75 9 1.6 Brian Harris
Jake Lamb 436 4.4 92 4 1.6 Chris Brown
Brandon Drury 646 3.9 83 5 1.3 Casey McGehee
Jarrod Saltalamacchia 358 4.3 93 -5 1.1 Mike Rose
Phil Gosselin 393 4.3 87 1 1.0 Mike Tyson
Chris Owings 538 4.1 79 2 0.9 Carlos Garcia
Jamie Romak 509 4.1 88 -2 0.9 Bill Hall
Aaron Hill 416 4.3 90 -2 0.7 Scott Brosius
Socrates Brito 578 4.1 82 8 0.6 Bruce Fields
Joaquin Arias 192 3.6 71 0 0.2 Alvaro Espinoza
Todd Glaesmann 412 3.9 81 -3 0.2 Pat Rooney
Matt Pagnozzi 257 3.0 61 0 0.1 Chad Moeller
Colin Bray 396 3.1 65 4 0.1 Xavier Paul
Chris Herrmann 317 3.1 65 -3 0.1 Chad Moeller
Stryker Trahan 468 3.1 67 -5 0.0 Steve Lomasney
Tuffy Gosewisch 188 2.6 52 2 0.0 Charlie Greene
Jack Reinheimer 581 3.4 68 -3 0.0 Jhonny Perez
Yasmany Tomas 492 4.7 97 -8 -0.1 Jermaine Dye
Carlos Rivero 466 3.4 69 1 -0.1 John Hotchkiss
Oscar Hernandez 221 2.8 61 -1 -0.1 Hector Gimenez
Gerald Laird 98 3.1 62 -2 -0.1 Rick Cerone
Garrett Weber 435 3.7 78 -5 -0.1 Juan Melo
Danny Worth 357 2.8 56 2 -0.1 Trace Coquillette
Blake Lalli 292 2.9 62 -2 -0.2 Chris Ashby
Kyle Jensen 489 4.0 88 -4 -0.2 Jeff Kipila
Cody Ransom 157 2.8 57 -1 -0.3 Rene Gonzales
Mitch Haniger 383 3.9 81 -7 -0.3 David Hall
Jordan Pacheco 291 3.8 77 -5 -0.3 Mike Tyson
Domingo Leyba 492 2.8 59 1 -0.5 Jorge Velandia
Peter O’Brien 479 4.4 98 -11 -0.5 Tim Costo
Brett Hayes 195 2.8 58 -4 -0.5 Chad Moeller
Raul Navarro 403 2.6 55 1 -0.5 Mike Huyler
Gabby Guerrero 541 3.4 68 3 -0.9 Darrin Jackson
Jason Bourgeois 375 3.4 67 -7 -0.9 Ken Woods
Rudy Flores 465 3.1 66 -1 -1.7 Tate Seefried

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats
Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER
Zack Greinke R 32 29 29 190.7 174 40 16 164 63 59
Shelby Miller R 25 32 31 185.0 156 64 20 172 80 75
Robbie Ray L 24 30 29 151.7 143 62 14 144 70 65
Patrick Corbin L 26 22 21 128.7 105 32 13 126 57 53
Josh Collmenter R 30 34 19 137.0 91 34 16 137 64 60
Chase Anderson R 28 26 26 145.7 121 41 18 146 71 66
Rubby de la Rosa R 27 28 28 163.0 132 54 22 165 85 79
Silvino Bracho R 23 55 0 56.0 70 14 7 46 20 19
Braden Shipley R 24 24 24 132.3 97 48 16 138 72 67
Andrew Chafin L 26 69 0 74.3 62 29 5 66 30 28
Zack Godley R 26 30 11 84.3 69 32 9 82 42 39
Brad Ziegler R 36 61 0 58.7 40 18 4 54 24 22
Tim Stauffer R 34 35 6 75.0 60 23 8 75 36 34
Kaleb Fleck R 27 50 0 57.3 63 25 6 50 24 22
Randall Delgado R 26 63 0 72.7 77 32 7 64 31 29
Kyle Drabek R 28 26 18 103.7 68 37 13 109 58 54
Daniel Hudson R 29 33 0 35.7 36 12 4 32 15 14
David Hernandez R 31 49 0 45.3 48 17 6 40 20 19
Evan Marshall R 26 57 0 61.0 51 22 5 60 28 26
Adam Miller R 26 36 5 59.0 44 25 5 59 30 28
Dominic Leone R 24 49 0 60.3 57 26 5 55 28 26
Adam Loewen L 32 41 7 82.3 78 50 8 75 43 40
Keith Hessler L 27 60 0 67.7 64 20 8 65 31 29
Enrique Burgos R 25 56 0 53.7 71 31 6 44 25 23
Archie Bradley R 23 16 16 75.7 62 40 9 75 43 40
Matt Reynolds L 31 42 0 42.7 38 13 6 41 20 19
Scott Rice L 34 50 0 32.3 32 19 3 28 15 14
Jake Barrett R 24 53 0 56.3 49 23 6 54 28 26
Jimmie Sherfy R 24 48 0 52.7 51 25 7 50 28 26
Matt Koch R 25 27 14 95.7 52 23 14 109 58 54
Blayne Weller R 26 26 20 117.0 92 53 17 125 72 67
Will Locante L 26 44 0 46.3 40 30 5 45 27 25
Matt Buschmann R 32 23 22 122.0 89 55 19 129 76 71
Matt Stites R 26 50 0 48.3 36 19 7 51 28 26
Caleb Clay R 28 22 21 118.3 63 34 19 135 74 69

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages
Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Zack Greinke 190.7 776 22.4% 5.2% .273 2.78 3.11 68 79
Shelby Miller 185.0 791 19.7% 8.1% .278 3.65 3.90 90 100
Robbie Ray 151.7 661 21.6% 9.4% .299 3.86 3.82 95 98
Patrick Corbin 128.7 544 19.3% 5.9% .290 3.71 3.68 91 94
Josh Collmenter 137.0 582 15.6% 5.8% .276 3.94 4.05 97 104
Chase Anderson 145.7 624 19.4% 6.6% .292 4.08 4.01 100 103
Rubby de la Rosa 163.0 708 18.6% 7.6% .288 4.36 4.35 107 111
Silvino Bracho 56.0 228 30.7% 6.1% .291 3.05 3.09 75 79
Braden Shipley 132.3 583 16.6% 8.2% .294 4.56 4.52 112 115
Andrew Chafin 74.3 318 19.5% 9.1% .277 3.39 3.42 83 87
Zack Godley 84.3 367 18.8% 8.7% .290 4.16 4.19 102 107
Brad Ziegler 58.7 248 16.1% 7.3% .272 3.37 3.50 83 90
Tim Stauffer 75.0 323 18.6% 7.1% .293 4.08 3.91 100 100
Kaleb Fleck 57.3 247 25.5% 10.1% .294 3.45 3.63 85 93
Randall Delgado 72.7 314 24.5% 10.2% .289 3.59 3.58 88 91
Kyle Drabek 103.7 457 14.9% 8.1% .287 4.69 4.70 115 120
Daniel Hudson 35.7 151 23.8% 7.9% .283 3.53 3.53 87 90
David Hernandez 45.3 193 24.9% 8.8% .286 3.77 4.02 93 103
Evan Marshall 61.0 265 19.2% 8.3% .299 3.84 3.64 94 93
Adam Miller 59.0 261 16.9% 9.6% .293 4.27 4.20 105 107
Dominic Leone 60.3 262 21.8% 9.9% .291 3.88 3.59 95 92
Adam Loewen 82.3 372 21.0% 13.4% .291 4.37 4.54 107 116
Keith Hessler 67.7 288 22.2% 6.9% .295 3.86 3.74 95 96
Enrique Burgos 53.7 236 30.1% 13.1% .304 3.86 3.81 95 98
Archie Bradley 75.7 342 18.1% 11.7% .291 4.76 4.77 117 122
Matt Reynolds 42.7 182 20.9% 7.1% .284 4.01 4.12 99 105
Scott Rice 32.3 144 22.2% 13.2% .284 3.90 4.15 96 106
Jake Barrett 56.3 246 19.9% 9.4% .291 4.15 4.09 102 104
Jimmie Sherfy 52.7 233 21.9% 10.7% .292 4.44 4.49 109 115
Matt Koch 95.7 419 12.4% 5.5% .293 5.08 4.89 125 125
Blayne Weller 117.0 529 17.4% 10.0% .300 5.15 5.02 127 128
Will Locante 46.3 214 18.7% 14.0% .294 4.86 4.98 119 127
Matt Buschmann 122.0 550 16.2% 10.0% .290 5.24 5.25 129 134
Matt Stites 48.3 215 16.8% 8.8% .292 4.84 4.80 119 123
Caleb Clay 118.3 524 12.0% 6.5% .289 5.25 5.20 129 133

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Zack Greinke 190.7 8.21 1.89 0.76 142 5.2 Doug Drabek
Shelby Miller 185.0 7.59 3.11 0.97 108 3.0 Jon Garland
Robbie Ray 151.7 8.48 3.68 0.83 103 2.0 Trevor Wilson
Patrick Corbin 128.7 7.34 2.24 0.91 107 1.9 Doug Davis
Josh Collmenter 137.0 5.98 2.23 1.05 100 1.5 Bud Podbielan
Chase Anderson 145.7 7.47 2.53 1.11 97 1.5 Brian Powell
Rubby de la Rosa 163.0 7.29 2.98 1.21 91 1.2 Eric Junge
Silvino Bracho 56.0 11.25 2.25 1.13 130 0.7 Robb Nen
Braden Shipley 132.3 6.60 3.27 1.09 87 0.6 Brian Moehler
Andrew Chafin 74.3 7.51 3.51 0.61 117 0.6 Tug McGraw
Zack Godley 84.3 7.37 3.42 0.96 95 0.6 Tom McCarthy
Brad Ziegler 58.7 6.13 2.76 0.61 117 0.5 Shigetoshi Hasegawa
Tim Stauffer 75.0 7.20 2.76 0.96 97 0.5 Bob Scanlan
Kaleb Fleck 57.3 9.90 3.93 0.94 115 0.4 Kevin Barry
Randall Delgado 72.7 9.53 3.96 0.87 110 0.4 Ryan Bukvich
Kyle Drabek 103.7 5.90 3.21 1.13 84 0.3 John Webb
Daniel Hudson 35.7 9.08 3.03 1.01 112 0.2 Gregg Olson
David Hernandez 45.3 9.54 3.38 1.19 105 0.2 Jose Alvarez
Evan Marshall 61.0 7.52 3.25 0.74 103 0.2 Jose Rodriguez
Adam Miller 59.0 6.71 3.81 0.76 93 0.2 Ryan Baker
Dominic Leone 60.3 8.51 3.88 0.75 102 0.2 Marc Pisciotta
Adam Loewen 82.3 8.53 5.47 0.87 91 0.2 Randy Williams
Keith Hessler 67.7 8.51 2.66 1.06 103 0.1 Shawn Barton
Enrique Burgos 53.7 11.90 5.20 1.01 103 0.1 Marcus Moore
Archie Bradley 75.7 7.37 4.76 1.07 83 0.1 Roger Salkeld
Matt Reynolds 42.7 8.01 2.74 1.26 99 0.1 Joey Eischen
Scott Rice 32.3 8.92 5.29 0.84 102 0.0 Marshall Bridges
Jake Barrett 56.3 7.83 3.68 0.96 95 0.0 Pete Sikaras
Jimmie Sherfy 52.7 8.71 4.27 1.20 89 -0.2 Jason Gilfillan
Matt Koch 95.7 4.89 2.16 1.32 78 -0.3 Brian Walker
Blayne Weller 117.0 7.08 4.08 1.31 77 -0.4 Lee Rodney
Will Locante 46.3 7.78 5.83 0.97 81 -0.5 Dean Brueggemann
Matt Buschmann 122.0 6.57 4.06 1.40 76 -0.5 Andy Hawkins
Matt Stites 48.3 6.71 3.54 1.30 82 -0.5 Mario Ramos
Caleb Clay 118.3 4.79 2.59 1.45 75 -0.5 Nick Roberts

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2016. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.



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Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
CoolWinnebago
Member
CoolWinnebago
4 months 23 days ago

This team is a whole lot shallower than i realized.

Menthol
Member
Member
Menthol
4 months 23 days ago

That top layer is pretty sweet, though.

High Heat
Member
High Heat
4 months 22 days ago

But the upside is league average production at every position on the diamond and every spot in the rotation. I’d take my chances with that.

Pinstripe Wizard
Member
Pinstripe Wizard
4 months 23 days ago

Phil Gosselin is Mike Tyson. That brought out a nice chuckle this morning.

free-range turducken
Member
free-range turducken
4 months 23 days ago

And Jake Lamb is Chris Brown, another guy known to throw a mean punch.

Trigaux
Member
Trigaux
4 months 23 days ago

Why Gosselin instead of Scorates Brito for OF playing time? His projections aren’t bad, and he has a way better name.

MrMet33
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MrMet33
4 months 23 days ago

Isn’t Salty on the Tigers?

DH
Member
DH
4 months 23 days ago

yes. I can only assume Carson thinks that Salty’s departure for the Tigers will be worth 1.1 wins for the Diamondbacks.

Dbacks4EVER
Member
Dbacks4EVER
4 months 23 days ago

According to Steamer:

1) Peralta’s WAR will go from to go from 3.7 last year to 1.7 this year;
2) Shelby’s from 3.4 to 1.7;
3) Pollock’s from 6.6 to 3.7;
4) Goldy’s from 7.4 to 5.2; and
5) Greinke’s from 5.9 to 4.2.

Absolute nonsense. The 5 best Dback players will regress THIS much?

CoolWinnebago
Member
CoolWinnebago
4 months 23 days ago

Its really not that crazy to think goldy and pollock just had career years.

jripper1268
Member
jripper1268
4 months 22 days ago

Goody didn’t have a career year last year. It was in line with the previous two.

Kang Ho
Member
Kang Ho
4 months 23 days ago

Peralta has very little minor league history so that probably has a significant effect on his regression. Steamer thinks Miller will post his highest HR/9 mark yet for some reason, the rest of his line looks, um, in line for the most part

tb3nn3tt
Member
tb3nn3tt
4 months 22 days ago

Median-projection, remember.

Once you reach that 5-6 win level, there’s just not that much room to get better but plenty of room to get worse (or hurt)!

tb3nn3tt
Member
tb3nn3tt
4 months 22 days ago

Also, Steamer seems to regress BABIP more than ZIPS does, and Goldy/Pollock/Peralta have all been high-BABIP guys.

Brock244
Member
Brock244
4 months 22 days ago

This honestly, isn’t absurd at all.

-Greinke’s projected 4.2 WAR would be right in line with what he’s done over the last say 6 seasons.

-Miller had a 4.07 xFIP, a result of a likely unsustainable 6.4% HR/FB ratio. I think 2 wins is a fair projection.

-Peralta obviously lacks a track record past this season. I don’t think its crazy to think he regresses from his 3.7 win season. Projecting him for about 2 wins, is within reason

-While Goldy is in fact, one of the better players in baseball, its hard to project him as a 7.5 win player going forward. I think a 6 win projection is reasonable (so maybe steamer is a bit low here)

-Pollock, like Peralta, lacks a superstar track record, despite superstar like production last season. It’s hard to project him as a 6.5 win player going forward. I think a 4 win projection is reasonable.

Brock244
Member
Brock244
4 months 22 days ago

Edit: Miller should be more 2.5 wins rather than 2 wins IMO. So I think something like

Greinke: 4.5 wins
Miller: 2.5 wins
Peralta: 2 wins
Goldy: 6 wins
Pollock: 4 wins

is perfectly reasonable.

TolkienBard
Member
TolkienBard
4 months 15 days ago

Those are some very reasonable regressions, especially since Greinke just had a historically good season that he has a near-zero chance of repeating, and Pollock and Goldschmidt cannot keep up that level of performance indefinitely. Those two were regressed from absolutely stellar, to being solid all-stars.

Peralta is a very reasonable regression as well. There is not a ton to go on with him, and until he shows more of a track record of hard-hit balls to inflate his BABIP, projection systems are never going to like his offense as being something sustainable.

xeifrank
Member
4 months 23 days ago

If Zips is correct, that’s a well below .500 team — 18-1/2 wins below the Dodgers and 8-1/2 wins below the Giants. I bet that won’t be reflected when Vegas over/under win totals come out.
vr, Xei

GMogab
Member
Member
GMogab
4 months 23 days ago

Adding up the zWAR + 47.7 constant I got 83.6 wins.

xeifrank
Member
4 months 22 days ago

I went to the team pages. Is that Steamer there?

piddy
Member
piddy
4 months 22 days ago

yes

mckeeno
Member
mckeeno
4 months 23 days ago

Do you have Inciarte’s projection?

Dan Szymborski
Member
Dan Szymborski
4 months 23 days ago

I actually completely forgot that Salty signed with Detroit. So in this case – he’s definitely not supposed to be here.

High Heat
Member
High Heat
4 months 22 days ago

I’m really interested in Shelby Miller going forward also, he changed his pitch mix so much that I don’t know what to expect. He started throwing his four-seam approximately 1/3rd of the time, his two-seam 1/3rd of the time, and his cutter, a pitch that he used with little frequency before, was used approximately 1/5th of the time (and was surprisingly valuable!). As a result, his already seldom used changeup dropped to new lows in usage and his curveball was used half as frequently. Keep in mind that he threw strikes and first strikes at essentially the same rate, balls were sprayed at essentially the same rates around the field, and liners were hit at essentially the same rate, yet, his GB% rose 8%, soft hit% increased 5%, hard hit% decreased 8%, allowed a career high BABIP (albeit slightly) but had essentially the same average allowed, got more swings in/out of the zone, allowed less contact in/out of the zone, IFH% at a career high, IFFB% at a career low, had a LOB% at a career low, and gained .5+ mph on both his four-seam and two-seam. Am I the only one optimistic that he can maintain his HR/FB gains going forward?

jbeer
Member
jbeer
4 months 22 days ago

Carson,

Inciarte wasn’t Peralta’s platoon partner last year. For most of the year, there was a four-man time share that included those two, Pollock, and Tomas. As the year went on, Pollock played much pretty all of the time, Peralta and Inciarte at least five days a week, and Tomas less and less.

As the roster now stands, Peralta will get everyday ABs in left, Pollock in center, and Tomas in right. Socrates Brito would be the 4th OF, and would likely get most of his at-bats against righties in RF, while very occasionally spelling Pollock in CF.

One assumes that the Dbacks must therefore be on the hunt for someone more seasoned to serve as the 4th OF, but when it comes to the Mind of Dave Stewart one makes assumptions at considerable peril.

lb813
Member
lb813
4 months 18 days ago

The Jake Lamb projection looks a little light also. I wouldnt be surprised to see a big jump in his numbers this year.

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