2016 ZiPS Projections – Boston Red Sox

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Boston Red Sox. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Atlanta / Baltimore / Cincinnati / Kansas City / New York AL / Philadelphia / Pittsburgh / Seattle / Texas / Toronto.

Batters
The object of considerable attention among the authors of this site, it’s probably not inaccurate to suggest that infielder/outfielder Mookie Betts is riddled with virtue. Or perhaps, afflicted by virtue. In either case, what he’s done is to parlay wide-ranging competence into a star-level profile. He’s projected to produce nearly a 20-20 season while also recording a strikeout rate of about 12%. He certainly doesn’t possess the skill set typical of a right fielder, but he’s equipped to produce wins anywhere, given an opportunity.

Elsewhere, one finds that (a) the second-best projection among Boston’s field players belongs to another 23-year-old, shortstop Xander Bogaerts, (b) ZiPS forecasts a slightly above-average season for Jackie Bradley Jr., and (c) Hanley Ramirez receives a defensive projection for first base!

Pitchers
Eduardo Rodriguez, Rick Porcello, and Clay Buchholz appear in that order on the depth-chart image below because that’s the order in which they appear when sorted by ZiPS’ projected WAR figures. That likely doesn’t reflect the order in which they’ll record their starts to begin the season. In either case, each is forecast to produce a roughly average season in 2016 — and none are expected to rival the newly acquired David Price as the club’s ace.

With regard to the bullpen, the projected numbers are probably more conservative the one would expect. Craig Kimbrel and Carson Smith, who combined for nearly four wins in 2015 — as measured by either FIP- or runs-based WAR — receive a mere two wins between them courtesy Dan Szymborski’s computer. Even despite that modest figure, the unit’s top four relievers all profile as competent pieces.

Bench/Prospects
Omitted from the depth chart below, but likely to accumulate a modest total of plate appearances as a bench player is Brock Holt, who receives a bench player’s type of projection (540 PA, 1.0 zWAR). With the exception of Deven Marrero (471 PA, 0.7 zWAR), there are no rookie-eligible players who would appear qualified even for a bench spot. Among pitchers, there’s more depth. Neither Henry Owens (159.0 IP, 1.5 zWAR) nor Roenis Elias (145.1 IP, 1.2 zWAR) is expected to begin the season with a large role. They’re not bad as backup plans, however. Matt Barnes (119.0 IP, 0.8 zWAR) and Brian Johnson (104.0 IP, 0.8 zWAR) also possess some promise.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Red Sox, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Red Sox Depth

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats
Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Mookie Betts R 23 CF 695 95 187 43 7 18 80 26 7
Xander Bogaerts R 23 SS 651 74 174 34 3 12 73 8 2
Dustin Pedroia R 32 2B 532 57 134 28 1 9 51 7 4
David Ortiz L 40 DH 526 52 120 28 0 30 89 0 1
Jackie Bradley Jr. L 26 CF 531 64 117 31 4 12 59 8 3
Hanley Ramirez R 32 1B 480 58 117 32 1 13 67 12 4
Blake Swihart B 24 C 432 48 102 24 3 6 41 5 4
Brock Holt! L 28 3B 540 59 135 25 5 3 44 11 3
Ryan Hanigan R 35 C 243 21 50 10 0 3 23 0 0
Pablo Sandoval L 29 3B 547 53 134 28 2 13 66 0 0
Chris Young R 32 LF 353 43 73 21 1 11 40 6 2
Christian Vazquez R 25 C 354 32 77 16 0 4 31 2 2
Deven Marrero R 25 SS 471 46 102 19 1 6 36 14 6
Rusney Castillo R 28 RF 386 41 93 14 2 7 35 10 5
Sandy Leon B 27 C 273 24 52 10 0 3 18 0 1
Rafael Devers L 19 3B 484 51 111 27 2 13 55 2 2
Sean Coyle R 24 2B 304 32 57 12 0 11 31 9 2
Marco Hernandez L 23 SS 512 49 124 23 5 7 50 9 5
Dave Sappelt R 29 CF 225 21 51 11 2 2 18 3 3
Yoan Moncada B 21 2B 414 43 82 16 3 8 34 26 8
Josh Rutledge R 27 SS 475 48 106 23 4 8 41 7 3
Sam Travis R 22 1B 495 50 119 25 3 10 51 12 9
Travis Shaw L 26 1B 552 56 119 25 2 16 57 3 2
Luis Jimenez R 28 3B 428 42 99 22 3 9 43 7 3
Jemile Weeks B 29 2B 387 39 81 17 4 2 24 8 2
Mauricio Dubon R 21 SS 477 44 110 17 2 5 37 18 10
Luis Martinez R 31 C 276 20 55 14 0 1 18 0 1
Wendell Rijo R 20 2B 491 44 96 24 3 9 44 12 9
Jeff Bianchi R 29 2B 221 19 50 9 1 1 18 4 2
Blake Tekotte L 29 CF 277 26 55 14 2 5 25 4 4
Luke Montz R 32 1B 164 16 28 11 0 5 19 0 0
Allen Craig R 31 1B 488 45 108 22 1 9 48 1 0
Bryce Brentz R 27 RF 325 35 71 15 1 10 35 1 1
Carlos Peguero L 29 LF 340 38 69 16 1 14 41 5 3
Chris Marrero R 27 1B 351 35 79 17 2 8 36 0 0
Jonathan Roof R 27 RF 363 34 75 15 1 4 28 3 3
Ali Solis R 28 C 229 16 41 9 1 2 16 0 0
Dustin Lawley R 27 3B 457 44 84 24 2 12 47 5 4
Chris Dominguez R 29 1B 425 42 91 21 2 11 47 7 5

***

Batters, Rates and Averages
Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA
Mookie Betts 695 8.2% 12.2% .177 .318 .297 .355 .474 .367
Xander Bogaerts 651 5.5% 16.9% .126 .334 .289 .332 .415 .326
Dustin Pedroia 532 8.3% 11.7% .119 .302 .279 .339 .398 .326
David Ortiz 526 12.0% 17.1% .259 .263 .264 .350 .523 .352
Jackie Bradley Jr. 531 8.5% 24.5% .158 .313 .247 .319 .405 .320
Hanley Ramirez 480 10.4% 17.5% .172 .317 .277 .358 .449 .358
Blake Swihart 432 5.8% 23.6% .119 .323 .252 .297 .371 .298
Brock Holt! 540 7.4% 18.1% .090 .338 .277 .333 .367 .312
Ryan Hanigan 243 10.7% 14.8% .091 .273 .238 .332 .329 .288
Pablo Sandoval 547 6.0% 13.9% .141 .288 .266 .314 .407 .310
Chris Young 353 8.8% 22.1% .177 .271 .231 .304 .408 .312
Christian Vazquez 354 7.1% 20.1% .087 .291 .238 .293 .325 .274
Deven Marrero 471 6.4% 23.8% .090 .302 .236 .286 .326 .280
Rusney Castillo 386 5.7% 15.8% .109 .295 .260 .308 .369 .308
Sandy Leon 273 8.1% 22.7% .078 .271 .211 .281 .289 .254
Rafael Devers 484 4.1% 25.0% .154 .302 .243 .280 .397 .294
Sean Coyle 304 8.2% 37.2% .164 .303 .208 .277 .372 .293
Marco Hernandez 512 3.5% 22.5% .111 .318 .254 .281 .365 .285
Dave Sappelt 225 4.9% 15.1% .100 .278 .243 .281 .343 .280
Yoan Moncada 414 8.0% 29.2% .125 .307 .222 .296 .347 .301
Josh Rutledge 475 5.1% 24.2% .125 .308 .243 .290 .368 .290
Sam Travis 495 6.7% 18.8% .134 .306 .262 .313 .396 .320
Travis Shaw 552 8.2% 24.3% .155 .293 .238 .305 .393 .305
Luis Jimenez 428 2.8% 20.3% .135 .286 .243 .269 .378 .283
Jemile Weeks 387 8.5% 18.1% .090 .287 .234 .305 .324 .285
Mauricio Dubon 477 4.8% 18.0% .081 .295 .248 .286 .329 .284
Luis Martinez 276 6.5% 22.8% .068 .284 .217 .276 .285 .253
Wendell Rijo 491 6.3% 30.3% .127 .296 .213 .269 .340 .277
Jeff Bianchi 221 5.4% 18.1% .068 .295 .243 .283 .311 .268
Blake Tekotte 277 6.1% 26.4% .131 .284 .218 .276 .349 .281
Luke Montz 164 9.1% 33.5% .178 .261 .192 .268 .370 .279
Allen Craig 488 8.0% 21.7% .116 .302 .245 .314 .361 .298
Bryce Brentz 325 6.5% 31.4% .156 .321 .237 .289 .393 .297
Carlos Peguero 340 7.4% 35.6% .193 .309 .223 .282 .416 .306
Chris Marrero 351 5.7% 22.2% .137 .292 .242 .288 .379 .291
Jonathan Roof 363 6.3% 20.9% .087 .278 .226 .280 .313 .267
Ali Solis 229 2.2% 34.1% .078 .281 .188 .212 .266 .207
Dustin Lawley 457 4.8% 35.0% .149 .277 .196 .239 .345 .259
Chris Dominguez 425 3.3% 31.8% .144 .307 .225 .256 .369 .277

***

Batters, Assorted Other
Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Mookie Betts 695 6.7 124 5 5.4 Ellis Burks
Xander Bogaerts 651 5.3 103 -2 3.0 Robin Yount
Dustin Pedroia 532 5.0 101 5 2.5 Willie Randolph
David Ortiz 526 6.7 135 0 2.3 Rafael Palmeiro
Jackie Bradley Jr. 531 4.7 97 4 2.2 Bob Skube
Hanley Ramirez 480 6.1 119 0 1.7 Hal McRae
Blake Swihart 432 3.9 82 -1 1.1 Marty Pevey
Brock Holt! 540 4.7 92 -5 1.0 Pete Runnels
Ryan Hanigan 243 3.9 82 2 0.9 Gene Desautels
Pablo Sandoval 547 4.7 96 -6 0.9 Garrett Atkins
Chris Young 353 4.4 93 5 0.9 Reed Secrist
Christian Vazquez 354 3.3 69 4 0.8 Nelson Santovenia
Deven Marrero 471 3.3 67 5 0.7 Billy White
Rusney Castillo 386 4.2 84 7 0.6 Jorge Padilla
Sandy Leon 273 2.7 57 5 0.4 Jean Boscan
Rafael Devers 484 3.9 82 -2 0.3 Mike Pagliarulo
Sean Coyle 304 3.7 76 0 0.2 Matt Raleigh
Marco Hernandez 512 3.7 75 -3 0.2 Ronny Cedeno
Dave Sappelt 225 3.3 70 3 0.2 Tim Leiper
Yoan Moncada 414 3.8 75 -3 0.2 Tony Phillips
Josh Rutledge 475 3.8 79 -6 0.1 Jeff Branson
Sam Travis 495 4.4 92 3 0.1 Dave Hollins
Travis Shaw 552 4.2 89 2 0.0 Kevin Barker
Luis Jimenez 428 3.7 75 -1 -0.1 Adam Pavkovich
Jemile Weeks 387 3.6 73 -2 -0.1 Brian Guinn
Mauricio Dubon 477 3.3 68 -2 -0.1 Jim Scranton
Luis Martinez 276 2.6 54 -1 -0.2 Chad Moeller
Wendell Rijo 491 3.0 65 3 -0.3 Greg Thissen
Jeff Bianchi 221 3.1 63 0 -0.3 Rene Gonzales
Blake Tekotte 277 3.2 70 -1 -0.3 Doug Frobel
Luke Montz 164 3.3 72 1 -0.4 Dustan Mohr
Allen Craig 488 4.1 84 0 -0.4 Jeff Ball
Bryce Brentz 325 4.0 85 -4 -0.5 Ryan Mulhern
Carlos Peguero 340 4.1 88 -5 -0.5 Mitch Jones
Chris Marrero 351 3.9 81 0 -0.6 Alberto Concepcion
Jonathan Roof 363 3.0 62 4 -0.8 Ryan Bear
Ali Solis 229 1.9 30 0 -0.9 Dave Ullery
Dustin Lawley 457 2.7 57 -4 -1.4 David Maroul
Chris Dominguez 425 3.2 68 0 -1.5 Mike Rosamond

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats
Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER
David Price L 30 31 30 209.3 211 39 20 198 83 78
Eduardo Rodriguez L 23 29 29 167.3 141 46 17 168 79 74
Rick Porcello R 27 30 30 187.3 140 39 20 199 93 87
Clay Buchholz R 31 21 21 126.7 109 35 11 126 59 55
Henry Owens L 23 29 29 159.0 138 75 18 154 83 78
Joe Kelly R 28 27 22 126.7 103 49 12 130 64 60
Roenis Elias L 27 26 26 145.3 124 62 16 146 78 73
Craig Kimbrel R 28 63 0 59.7 82 23 5 44 19 18
Carson Smith R 26 60 0 61.0 68 22 4 52 22 21
Justin Masterson R 31 25 19 114.3 99 53 11 114 62 58
Brian Johnson L 25 22 22 104.0 85 45 12 104 56 52
Matt Barnes R 25 25 22 119.0 93 43 14 125 65 61
Steven Wright R 31 22 16 110.0 78 34 15 116 60 56
Koji Uehara R 41 44 0 41.0 48 8 5 35 15 14
Junichi Tazawa R 30 65 0 60.7 60 14 6 59 26 24
Edwin Escobar L 24 22 13 76.0 58 19 11 79 42 39
Heath Hembree R 27 58 0 59.7 59 22 6 56 28 26
Tommy Layne L 31 66 0 55.7 51 27 4 52 26 24
Robbie Ross L 27 48 0 53.3 46 18 5 54 26 24
Noe Ramirez R 26 45 0 62.0 50 24 6 62 30 28
Anthony Varvaro R 31 37 0 37.7 27 13 3 39 18 17
Zeke Spruill R 26 32 15 110.0 64 38 13 126 65 61
Brandon Workman R 27 26 17 104.0 79 38 16 115 64 60
Jess Todd R 30 34 6 68.3 45 31 8 75 41 38
Roman Mendez R 25 44 0 49.0 39 22 6 51 28 26
Keith Couch R 26 24 19 113.0 61 43 14 131 72 67
Craig Breslow L 35 50 0 55.3 39 22 7 60 31 29
Madison Younginer R 25 37 0 62.7 45 31 7 66 36 34
Jorge Marban R 27 39 0 58.0 46 41 6 59 34 32
Williams Jerez L 24 32 0 66.7 54 30 9 70 40 37
Sean O’Sullivan R 28 24 23 129.0 73 43 20 154 87 81
Pat Light R 25 33 10 73.0 50 37 13 85 52 49
Shawn Haviland R 30 25 20 112.3 68 47 20 134 80 75

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages
Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
David Price 209.3 865 24.4% 4.5% .301 3.35 2.93 79 75
Eduardo Rodriguez 167.3 716 19.7% 6.4% .298 3.98 3.66 94 93
Rick Porcello 187.3 800 17.5% 4.9% .301 4.18 3.70 99 94
Clay Buchholz 126.7 541 20.1% 6.5% .302 3.91 3.44 93 87
Henry Owens 159.0 706 19.5% 10.6% .291 4.42 4.41 105 112
Joe Kelly 126.7 559 18.4% 8.8% .303 4.26 3.99 101 101
Roenis Elias 145.3 644 19.3% 9.6% .301 4.52 4.28 107 109
Craig Kimbrel 59.7 246 33.3% 9.3% .291 2.72 2.65 65 67
Carson Smith 61.0 257 26.5% 8.6% .304 3.10 2.91 74 74
Justin Masterson 114.3 510 19.4% 10.4% .308 4.57 4.33 108 110
Brian Johnson 104.0 461 18.4% 9.8% .294 4.50 4.44 107 113
Matt Barnes 119.0 525 17.7% 8.2% .301 4.61 4.31 109 110
Steven Wright 110.0 480 16.3% 7.1% .289 4.58 4.50 109 114
Koji Uehara 41.0 166 28.9% 4.8% .286 3.07 2.86 73 73
Junichi Tazawa 60.7 255 23.5% 5.5% .304 3.56 3.11 84 79
Edwin Escobar 76.0 326 17.8% 5.8% .291 4.62 4.37 110 111
Heath Hembree 59.7 257 22.9% 8.6% .297 3.92 3.54 93 90
Tommy Layne 55.7 246 20.7% 11.0% .296 3.88 3.72 92 94
Robbie Ross 53.3 232 19.8% 7.8% .306 4.05 3.61 96 92
Noe Ramirez 62.0 272 18.4% 8.8% .298 4.06 4.11 96 104
Anthony Varvaro 37.7 165 16.4% 7.9% .295 4.06 3.66 96 93
Zeke Spruill 110.0 494 13.0% 7.7% .303 4.99 4.65 118 118
Brandon Workman 104.0 465 17.0% 8.2% .302 5.19 4.77 123 121
Jess Todd 68.3 311 14.5% 10.0% .301 5.00 4.80 119 122
Roman Mendez 49.0 220 17.7% 10.0% .300 4.78 4.58 113 116
Keith Couch 113.0 513 11.9% 8.4% .301 5.34 4.94 127 126
Craig Breslow 55.3 248 15.7% 8.9% .298 4.72 4.53 112 115
Madison Younginer 62.7 285 15.8% 10.9% .296 4.88 4.75 116 121
Jorge Marban 58.0 274 16.8% 15.0% .299 4.97 5.14 118 131
Williams Jerez 66.7 300 18.0% 10.0% .300 4.99 4.77 118 121
Sean O’Sullivan 129.0 584 12.5% 7.4% .305 5.65 5.13 134 130
Pat Light 73.0 341 14.7% 10.9% .304 6.04 5.74 143 146
Shawn Haviland 112.3 518 13.1% 9.1% .303 6.01 5.65 143 144

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
David Price 209.3 9.07 1.68 0.86 121 4.9 Frank Viola
Eduardo Rodriguez 167.3 7.59 2.47 0.91 102 2.4 Joe Kennedy
Rick Porcello 187.3 6.73 1.87 0.96 97 2.3 Tom Candiotti
Clay Buchholz 126.7 7.74 2.49 0.78 104 2.0 Dick Ruthven
Henry Owens 159.0 7.81 4.25 1.02 92 1.5 Mark Redman
Joe Kelly 126.7 7.32 3.48 0.85 95 1.3 Tony Armas Jr.
Roenis Elias 145.3 7.68 3.84 0.99 90 1.2 Damian Moss
Craig Kimbrel 59.7 12.36 3.47 0.75 150 1.1 Bryan Harvey
Carson Smith 61.0 10.03 3.25 0.59 131 0.9 Brian Wilson
Justin Masterson 114.3 7.80 4.17 0.87 89 0.9 Kip Wells
Brian Johnson 104.0 7.36 3.89 1.04 90 0.8 Terry Mulholland
Matt Barnes 119.0 7.03 3.25 1.06 88 0.8 Frank Seminara
Steven Wright 110.0 6.38 2.78 1.23 89 0.8 Dave Johnson
Koji Uehara 41.0 10.54 1.76 1.10 132 0.7 Larry Andersen
Junichi Tazawa 60.7 8.90 2.08 0.89 114 0.6 Donnie Moore
Edwin Escobar 76.0 6.87 2.25 1.30 88 0.4 Larry Acker
Heath Hembree 59.7 8.89 3.32 0.90 104 0.3 David Lee
Tommy Layne 55.7 8.24 4.36 0.65 105 0.3 Doug Capilla
Robbie Ross 53.3 7.77 3.04 0.84 100 0.2 Ray Beasley
Noe Ramirez 62.0 7.26 3.48 0.87 100 0.1 Andy Shipman
Anthony Varvaro 37.7 6.45 3.10 0.72 100 0.1 Hal White
Zeke Spruill 110.0 5.24 3.11 1.06 81 0.0 Kevin Legault
Brandon Workman 104.0 6.84 3.29 1.38 78 -0.1 Scott Shoemaker
Jess Todd 68.3 5.93 4.08 1.05 81 -0.1 Marty McLeary
Roman Mendez 49.0 7.16 4.04 1.10 85 -0.3 Brandon Puffer
Keith Couch 113.0 4.86 3.42 1.12 76 -0.3 Andy Cook
Craig Breslow 55.3 6.35 3.58 1.14 86 -0.3 Juan Pizarro
Madison Younginer 62.7 6.46 4.45 1.00 83 -0.5 Keith Shepherd
Jorge Marban 58.0 7.14 6.36 0.93 82 -0.5 Jake Robbins
Williams Jerez 66.7 7.29 4.05 1.21 81 -0.6 Steve Stowell
Sean O’Sullivan 129.0 5.09 3.00 1.40 72 -0.8 Rusty Richards
Pat Light 73.0 6.16 4.56 1.60 67 -1.0 Paul Schappert
Shawn Haviland 112.3 5.45 3.77 1.60 68 -1.3 Giovanni Carrara

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2016. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.



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tz
Member
tz
5 months 15 hours ago

If Mookie Betts is as good as Ellis Burks over his tenure with the Red Sox I’d be happy.

If Hanley Ramirez is as good as Hal McRae over the rest of his deal with the Red Sox, I’d be even happier.

Shauncore
Member
Shauncore
5 months 14 hours ago

In his age 32-34 seasons, McRae was worth 4.8 fWAR or 1.6 a year.

That would be worth roughly $38M in value. Hanley is owed $66M from ’16-18.

Would you be happy with a -$28M in value or more along the lines of relieved it ended up that way because it could be worse?

wily mo
Member
5 months 13 hours ago

considering that mcrae was worth 7.4 fWAR from ages 36-38, your numbers probably aren’t a hard cap on what’s possible

at any rate i believe tz means “i will be happy if hanley is a pretty good player”

tz
Member
tz
5 months 11 hours ago

Wily Mo is right about what I meant – after what Hanley did last year, I’d be quite happy with him being a good hitter doing minimal damage with the glove.

kdm628496
Member
kdm628496
5 months 15 hours ago

BROCK HOLT!

agent00
Member
Member
agent00
5 months 14 hours ago

lol i knew i saw an exclamation point after his name.

kdm628496
Member
kdm628496
5 months 13 hours ago

i only noticed because it caused an error in a vlookup when i pasted the data into my spreadsheet.

tz
Member
tz
5 months 11 hours ago

He should add the exclamation point to his legal name.

wildcard09
Member
Member
5 months 14 hours ago

BROCK HOLT! \O/

gavzac
Member
gavzac
5 months 13 hours ago

If you would remove Masterson from their pitcher projections, I would be so happy.

mettle
Member
mettle
5 months 13 hours ago

“Hanley Ramirez receives a defensive projection for first base!”

i.e., “0”

I’m not sure that was very hard to do.

David Laurila
Member
5 months 13 hours ago

Fun fact: Brock Holt’s No. 1 comp, Pete Runnels, hit .320/.408/.427 and won two AL batting titles in his five seasons with the Red Sox.

Larry Bernandez
Member
Larry Bernandez
5 months 11 hours ago

Matt Barnes is going to pitch exclusively out of the bullpen this year, per WEEI.

DCE
Member
DCE
5 months 7 hours ago

I could be mistaken but I believe ZiPS doesn’t factor any of that into the projection. It would be nice if we could get a special relief-only projection for Barnes, Edwin Escobar and Pat Light though, as none of them will be starters again

Dale
Member
Dale
5 months 8 hours ago

This upcoming Spring, my 12-team fantasy baseball league will have its first draft since switching to keepers. Draft pick trading is on and I was planning on punting this year by trading most of my middle round picks for very high draft picks. I was thinking about trading for 3 first round picks in a range where I could get Bryce Harper/Mike Trout, Kris Bryant, and Carlos Correa as well as a late second round pick to target Jose Fernandez with. In our league we will keep five players every year so obviously they’d make up 4 of my 5 keepers for the foreseeable future. I welcome any thoughts about this strategy. Thanks!

apbadogs
Member
apbadogs
4 months 29 days ago

Are you lost?

And if your strategy works you are in a league filled with idiots.

DCE
Member
DCE
5 months 7 hours ago

Dan, would you be able to shed some light on how the ‘No. 1 Comp’ works? For example with these projections, the players that are No. 1 comps for Rusney Castillo, Bradley Jr. & Blake Swihart only had 100 plate appearances in the major leagues, combined!

the steal dog
Member
the steal dog
4 months 29 days ago

I am sick and tired of the blatant Red Sox bias on this site. You know there are many other teams out there right? Why focus on just Red Sox projections??

Jason B
Member
Jason B
4 months 28 days ago

3/10. A tad transparent although it may “whoosh” right over some people’s heads.

Petey Bienel
Member
Petey Bienel
4 months 24 days ago

Seeing the names “Larry Andersen” and “Donnie Moore” as top comps for key Red Sox bullpen guys is … cruel? Ironic? Angina-inducing?

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