2016 ZiPS Projections – Chicago White Sox

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Chicago White Sox. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago NL / Cincinnati / Cleveland / Detroit / Houston / Kansas City / Los Angeles NL / Minnesota / New York AL / New York NL / Philadelphia / Pittsburgh / St. Louis / San Diego / San Francisco / Seattle / Texas / Toronto / Washington.

Batters
White Sox batters produced the lowest collective WAR among all 30 teams in 2015, combining the worst park-adjusted offense in the majors (-108.1 runs below average overall) with also the worst defense (-60.3 runs below average). The result: a mere three wins above replacement level as a group.

That’s not to say there weren’t encouraging invidual contributions. Jose Abreu and Adam Eaton, for example, produced nearly eight wins between them. On the one hand, that’s a positive. On the other hand, what it reveals is that the rest of the roster provided less value than freely available talent might, in theory, supply. Gordon Beckham, Conor Gillaspie, and Mike Olt — who accounted for roughly two-thirds of the club’s third-base starts — recorded a -1.5 WAR between them. Emilio Bonifacio, Micah Johnson, and Carlos Sanchez — who made all but seven starts at second base — posted a collective -1.3 WAR. Those outputs quite possibly don’t represent the true talents of all those players, but they certainly had an adverse effect on Chicago’s win-loss record.

The advantage for a club which possesses glaring holes is that addressing those holes with merely serviceable replacements represents a considerable upgrade. If the newly acquired tandem of Todd Frazier (624 PA, 3.7 zWAR) and Brett Lawrie (509 PA, 1.8 zWAR) approximate their projections in 2016, they’ll conspire to produce a roughly eight-win improvement by themselves.

Pitchers
Leo Tolstoy writes in one of his cold Russian novels that “All happy families are alike; each unhappy family is unhappy in its own way.” The veracity of that particular comment is debatable. How it’s relevant to the White Sox rotation, though, is because of left-handed ace Chris Sale (195.2 IP, 5.9 zWAR), who is rendered dull almost for his lack of weaknesses. Sale is actually projected to produce the second-best season of his career. He’s accompanied by two other above-average left-handers in Jose Quintana (195.1 IP, 4.1 zWAR) and Carlos Rodon (158.1 IP, 3.2 zWAR).

While a relief ace — and strong bullpen, in general — is of considerable benefit to a club on a postseason run, the advantages are less pronounces for a team that finishes the season 19 games out of first place. In either case, Chicago continues to employ one of the league’s top pitchers on a per-inning basis in David Robertson (60.1 IP, 1.3 zWAR). The remainder of the bullpen bears a strong resemblance to every other, roughly average bullpen.

Bench/Prospects
Shortstop Tim Anderson (504 PA, 0.7 zWAR), who enters his age-23 season, receives the top projection among all rookie-eligible field players who aren’t also 28-year-old catchers. He’s exhibited poor plate discipline almost uniformly in the minors but appears to have demonstrated sufficient production on contact — and defense, naturally — to profile as a solid bench player in the present. With regard to pitchers, there are fewer obvious options. Zach Phillips (41.1 IP, 0.2 zWAR) merits the top forecast among White Sox rookie-eligible pitchers — and also the only such forecast that’s also a positive number and also he’s a LOOGY.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the White Sox, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

White Sox Depth Chart

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats
Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Todd Frazier R 30 3B 624 78 144 30 2 25 80 12 7
Adam Eaton L 27 CF 669 93 164 28 9 9 54 21 11
Jose Abreu R 29 1B 611 84 157 30 2 29 89 1 2
Brett Lawrie R 26 3B 509 55 119 21 2 15 53 5 2
Tyler Saladino R 26 3B 463 54 97 13 4 9 41 20 4
Dioner Navarro B 32 C 306 26 72 11 0 8 32 1 0
Alex Avila L 29 C 350 32 60 12 0 9 29 0 1
Jerry Sands R 28 RF 375 42 76 13 2 14 43 1 1
Melky Cabrera B 31 LF 596 71 154 28 3 11 64 5 2
Kevan Smith R 28 C 405 43 86 15 2 9 38 1 1
Tim Anderson R 23 SS 504 55 124 17 5 9 42 24 8
Carlos Sanchez B 24 2B 570 57 126 24 3 6 43 10 5
Jake Peter L 23 2B 566 59 123 20 4 4 42 11 3
Matt Davidson R 25 3B 580 63 106 20 1 21 61 1 1
Dayan Viciedo R 27 1B 438 51 103 18 3 16 52 0 0
Mike Olt R 27 3B 386 41 69 14 0 15 41 1 1
Rob Brantly L 26 C 342 33 77 13 1 6 34 0 1
Dan Black B 28 1B 427 51 89 15 2 13 46 2 1
Adam LaRoche L 36 1B 477 51 94 17 1 18 57 1 0
Jason Coats R 26 LF 574 63 130 28 2 16 66 7 3
Daniel Fields L 25 CF 470 47 90 18 5 9 38 13 5
Jacob May B 24 CF 421 43 90 12 2 6 32 22 12
Avisail Garcia R 25 RF 501 61 123 15 3 13 58 7 5
Leury Garcia B 25 SS 352 36 79 11 3 3 23 21 7
Hector Sanchez B 26 C 225 20 49 9 0 6 28 0 0
Andy Parrino B 30 SS 404 37 75 13 2 6 27 2 1
Chris Curley R 28 SS 397 42 84 15 2 10 40 4 3
Adam Engel R 24 CF 495 53 92 12 4 7 34 30 11
Nick Delmonico L 23 3B 272 30 56 17 0 7 28 2 2
J.B. Shuck L 29 RF 370 40 87 13 3 2 32 7 5
Gerson Montilla R 26 3B 476 48 104 15 1 11 42 5 5
Courtney Hawkins R 22 LF 431 48 80 16 2 16 50 4 4
Justin Sellers R 30 SS 248 22 52 10 1 2 16 1 1
Matt Tuiasosopo R 30 RF 391 46 72 13 0 13 43 1 1
Trey Michalczewski B 21 3B 569 58 107 23 3 11 55 4 4
Neftali Soto R 27 1B 352 35 76 14 0 6 31 1 0
Chris Jacobs R 27 1B 404 42 72 13 1 9 35 2 1
Joey DeMichele L 25 2B 533 49 101 20 3 5 38 9 4
Steve Lombardozzi B 27 2B 391 33 90 14 1 1 24 8 3
Eudy Pina R 25 RF 425 42 79 13 4 7 36 7 4
Danny Hayes L 25 1B 483 48 85 18 2 8 42 0 1
Drew Garcia B 30 SS 320 24 59 13 1 2 19 4 3
Tony Thomas R 29 2B 413 37 73 16 3 9 35 8 3
Tyler Colvin L 30 RF 338 31 64 13 3 6 30 2 1

***

Batters, Rates and Averages
Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA
Todd Frazier 624 7.4% 21.2% .194 .289 .255 .318 .449 .337
Adam Eaton 669 8.4% 17.6% .123 .331 .277 .352 .400 .341
Jose Abreu 611 7.5% 19.5% .220 .316 .285 .352 .505 .361
Brett Lawrie 509 6.3% 21.8% .151 .303 .255 .310 .406 .313
Tyler Saladino 463 6.9% 21.2% .115 .278 .232 .290 .347 .290
Dioner Navarro 306 7.5% 15.7% .126 .283 .259 .314 .385 .304
Alex Avila 350 14.6% 33.1% .133 .297 .203 .321 .336 .298
Jerry Sands 375 10.1% 26.9% .178 .282 .229 .309 .407 .315
Melky Cabrera 596 6.2% 12.1% .122 .303 .281 .325 .403 .316
Kevan Smith 405 6.2% 23.0% .125 .285 .232 .290 .357 .284
Tim Anderson 504 2.6% 27.2% .112 .340 .257 .283 .369 .298
Carlos Sanchez 570 4.7% 20.2% .091 .293 .239 .281 .330 .273
Jake Peter 566 5.8% 19.1% .076 .287 .235 .284 .311 .268
Matt Davidson 580 8.1% 36.2% .164 .289 .203 .276 .367 .281
Dayan Viciedo 438 5.5% 21.2% .177 .289 .253 .299 .430 .313
Mike Olt 386 8.8% 36.3% .171 .278 .199 .275 .370 .285
Rob Brantly 342 4.4% 19.0% .103 .280 .240 .275 .343 .269
Dan Black 427 9.8% 26.9% .153 .299 .235 .312 .388 .304
Adam LaRoche 477 11.5% 25.2% .175 .270 .226 .317 .401 .309
Jason Coats 574 4.5% 20.6% .149 .280 .242 .280 .391 .293
Daniel Fields 470 7.9% 31.9% .131 .305 .213 .284 .344 .285
Jacob May 421 4.8% 24.0% .087 .295 .231 .272 .318 .279
Avisail Garcia 501 5.4% 23.6% .129 .326 .265 .311 .394 .312
Leury Garcia 352 4.5% 25.0% .080 .321 .242 .280 .322 .281
Hector Sanchez 225 4.9% 24.0% .129 .285 .236 .277 .365 .278
Andy Parrino 404 7.7% 29.0% .096 .280 .204 .270 .300 .255
Chris Curley 397 4.0% 25.4% .132 .280 .226 .263 .358 .274
Adam Engel 495 6.7% 31.7% .091 .293 .203 .264 .294 .269
Nick Delmonico 272 5.5% 28.3% .151 .287 .222 .266 .373 .280
J.B. Shuck 370 7.0% 9.5% .074 .281 .260 .311 .334 .290
Gerson Montilla 476 5.5% 23.3% .113 .288 .235 .279 .348 .280
Courtney Hawkins 431 6.0% 39.0% .172 .298 .202 .256 .374 .278
Justin Sellers 248 4.8% 17.3% .079 .270 .229 .273 .308 .257
Matt Tuiasosopo 391 10.7% 33.2% .152 .294 .211 .303 .363 .295
Trey Michalczewski 569 7.0% 33.9% .120 .302 .206 .268 .326 .264
Neftali Soto 352 6.3% 23.3% .098 .292 .233 .284 .331 .271
Chris Jacobs 404 8.7% 36.4% .117 .306 .200 .282 .317 .269
Joey DeMichele 533 5.6% 29.1% .083 .285 .204 .251 .287 .243
Steve Lombardozzi 391 5.1% 13.8% .052 .286 .248 .289 .300 .265
Eudy Pina 425 5.6% 31.3% .107 .281 .201 .252 .308 .252
Danny Hayes 483 10.6% 30.6% .108 .283 .200 .287 .308 .266
Drew Garcia 320 4.4% 29.1% .070 .279 .198 .241 .268 .230
Tony Thomas 413 5.1% 37.5% .127 .286 .189 .235 .316 .246
Tyler Colvin 338 5.3% 32.5% .117 .289 .203 .249 .320 .250

***

Batters, Assorted Other
Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Todd Frazier 624 5.1 111 4 3.7 Pinky Whitney
Adam Eaton 669 5.2 110 -4 3.2 Johnny Damon
Jose Abreu 611 6.6 136 -2 3.1 Willie Horton
Brett Lawrie 509 4.6 98 -1 1.8 Kevin Kouzmanoff
Tyler Saladino 463 3.8 77 9 1.8 Hector Luna
Dioner Navarro 306 4.4 94 -2 1.4 Milt May
Alex Avila 350 3.6 84 -3 1.1 Scott Hatteberg
Jerry Sands 375 4.4 98 2 1.0 Ozzie Timmons
Melky Cabrera 596 4.9 102 -4 1.0 Shannon Stewart
Kevan Smith 405 3.6 80 -5 0.8 Blake Barthol
Tim Anderson 504 4.0 80 -6 0.7 Carlos Garcia
Carlos Sanchez 570 3.3 70 5 0.7 Diory Hernandez
Jake Peter 566 3.2 66 4 0.4 Martin Prado
Matt Davidson 580 3.4 78 -3 0.4 Jared Sandberg
Dayan Viciedo 438 4.7 101 -2 0.4 Kevin Grijak
Mike Olt 386 3.4 78 -1 0.4 Shane Andrews
Rob Brantly 342 3.3 71 -2 0.4 Matt Merullo
Dan Black 427 4.3 94 1 0.3 Jeff Bailey
Adam LaRoche 477 4.5 99 -2 0.3 Lee Stevens
Jason Coats 574 3.9 85 1 0.2 Mark Smith
Daniel Fields 470 3.4 75 -2 0.2 Larry Whisenton
Jacob May 421 3.0 64 4 0.1 Virgilio Silverio
Avisail Garcia 501 4.4 95 -5 0.1 Matt Murton
Leury Garcia 352 3.5 68 -2 0.1 Curtis Wilkerson
Hector Sanchez 225 3.6 78 -5 0.1 Ramon Castro
Andy Parrino 404 2.8 59 2 0.1 Doug Baker
Chris Curley 397 3.2 71 -3 0.1 Andujar Cedeno
Adam Engel 495 2.8 56 6 0.1 Kenny Kelly
Nick Delmonico 272 3.4 76 -1 0.0 Jamie Taylor
J.B. Shuck 370 3.7 81 1 -0.1 Terry Bogener
Gerson Montilla 476 3.3 74 -3 -0.2 Tommy Whiteman
Courtney Hawkins 431 3.1 73 4 -0.2 Willie Magallanes
Justin Sellers 248 2.9 62 -2 -0.2 Kevin Baez
Matt Tuiasosopo 391 3.7 85 -6 -0.4 Kurt Airoso
Trey Michalczewski 569 2.9 65 -1 -0.5 Corey Smith
Neftali Soto 352 3.4 71 2 -0.6 Mike Eylward
Chris Jacobs 404 3.0 67 2 -0.8 Sean Freeman
Joey DeMichele 533 2.5 50 4 -0.9 Eric Nelson
Steve Lombardozzi 391 3.2 65 -7 -1.0 Bien Figueroa
Eudy Pina 425 2.6 56 5 -1.0 Cecil Rodriques
Danny Hayes 483 2.9 67 2 -1.1 Chris Weinke
Drew Garcia 320 2.1 42 -2 -1.1 Chris Petersen
Tony Thomas 413 2.5 52 -5 -1.5 Kody Kirkland
Tyler Colvin 338 2.7 58 -5 -1.7 Kevin Koslofski

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats
Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER
Chris Sale L 27 29 29 195.7 241 41 20 165 70 65
Jose Quintana L 27 31 31 195.3 166 47 17 198 87 81
Carlos Rodon L 23 25 25 158.3 169 63 19 144 72 67
David Robertson R 31 60 0 60.3 83 17 6 46 20 19
Erik Johnson R 26 27 26 141.7 120 61 18 145 79 74
John Danks L 31 28 28 166.0 114 50 24 182 96 90
Zach Putnam R 28 52 0 55.0 61 23 5 48 22 21
Nate Jones R 30 49 0 54.3 63 19 5 48 22 21
Zach Duke L 33 67 0 54.7 62 24 7 48 25 23
Dan Jennings L 29 56 0 57.3 53 22 5 57 27 25
Jake Petricka R 28 66 0 70.7 55 26 6 70 33 31
Matt Albers R 33 29 0 33.0 24 10 3 33 15 14
Jesse Crain R 34 17 0 17.0 18 7 2 16 7 7
Zach Phillips L 29 37 0 41.3 42 19 4 39 20 19
Onelki Garcia L 26 28 2 43.3 44 26 6 42 25 23
Josh Wall R 29 37 0 43.7 39 19 5 44 24 22
Chris Beck R 25 20 20 105.3 59 36 15 123 67 63
Terance Marin R 26 21 10 79.0 48 24 11 91 49 46
Matt Lindstrom R 36 35 0 33.7 23 11 3 37 18 17
Tommy Kahnle R 26 57 0 63.0 69 37 8 58 34 32
Scott Carroll R 31 25 16 99.3 57 37 14 115 63 59
Cody Winiarski R 26 31 0 41.7 40 20 6 42 25 23
Javy Guerra R 30 29 0 34.0 26 15 5 37 20 19
Michael Ynoa R 24 31 0 42.7 40 23 6 44 26 24
Tyler Barnette R 24 31 8 81.3 48 33 11 95 52 49
Will Lamb L 25 46 0 55.0 47 32 7 56 33 31
Mark Blackmar R 24 25 22 128.0 60 49 17 151 86 80
Daniel Webb R 26 51 0 64.3 54 39 7 67 40 37
Maikel Cleto R 27 40 0 55.0 64 31 10 52 34 32
Brandon Brennan R 24 14 14 58.0 36 35 9 68 43 40
Matt Purke L 25 18 15 62.7 40 28 12 75 46 43
Peter Tago R 23 44 0 61.3 54 41 8 64 40 37
Jacob Turner R 25 17 14 81.3 54 31 14 98 58 54
Tim Crabbe R 28 31 11 91.0 66 40 16 105 63 59
Phillippe Aumont R 27 34 7 68.3 66 59 10 69 48 45
Hector Noesi R 29 25 17 109.7 80 40 22 126 77 72
Arcenio Leon R 29 28 2 40.7 30 33 7 46 32 30
Tyler Danish R 21 25 25 123.0 76 54 23 152 91 85
Myles Jaye R 24 26 26 134.7 80 55 25 162 100 93
Nik Turley L 26 19 19 93.3 74 56 22 107 75 70
Matt Lollis R 25 51 0 66.3 53 41 14 75 51 48

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages
Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Chris Sale 195.7 793 30.4% 5.2% .303 2.99 2.77 73 67
Jose Quintana 195.3 831 20.0% 5.7% .304 3.73 3.29 91 80
Carlos Rodon 158.3 682 24.8% 9.2% .296 3.81 3.88 93 94
David Robertson 60.3 244 34.0% 7.0% .292 2.83 2.44 69 59
Erik Johnson 141.7 631 19.0% 9.7% .299 4.70 4.50 115 109
John Danks 166.0 730 15.6% 6.8% .295 4.88 4.61 119 111
Zach Putnam 55.0 236 25.8% 9.7% .297 3.44 3.27 84 79
Nate Jones 54.3 230 27.4% 8.3% .303 3.48 3.03 85 73
Zach Duke 54.7 236 26.3% 10.2% .291 3.79 3.76 93 91
Dan Jennings 57.3 251 21.1% 8.8% .304 3.92 3.38 96 82
Jake Petricka 70.7 308 17.9% 8.4% .292 3.95 3.67 96 89
Matt Albers 33.0 142 16.9% 7.0% .288 3.82 3.65 93 88
Jesse Crain 17.0 74 24.3% 9.5% .298 3.71 3.75 91 91
Zach Phillips 41.3 182 23.1% 10.4% .307 4.14 3.86 101 93
Onelki Garcia 43.3 198 22.2% 13.1% .303 4.78 4.88 117 118
Josh Wall 43.7 194 20.1% 9.8% .304 4.53 4.18 111 101
Chris Beck 105.3 475 12.4% 7.6% .301 5.38 5.01 131 121
Terance Marin 79.0 352 13.6% 6.8% .303 5.24 4.80 128 116
Matt Lindstrom 33.7 149 15.4% 7.4% .306 4.54 3.88 111 94
Tommy Kahnle 63.0 284 24.3% 13.0% .296 4.57 4.33 112 105
Scott Carroll 99.3 450 12.7% 8.2% .302 5.35 5.06 131 122
Cody Winiarski 41.7 187 21.4% 10.7% .302 4.97 4.57 121 111
Javy Guerra 34.0 154 16.9% 9.7% .305 5.03 4.99 123 121
Michael Ynoa 42.7 195 20.5% 11.8% .309 5.06 4.82 124 116
Tyler Barnette 81.3 372 12.9% 8.9% .304 5.42 5.01 132 121
Will Lamb 55.0 253 18.6% 12.6% .299 5.07 4.96 124 120
Mark Blackmar 128.0 584 10.3% 8.4% .297 5.62 5.18 137 125
Daniel Webb 64.3 299 18.1% 13.0% .306 5.18 4.71 127 114
Maikel Cleto 55.0 248 25.8% 12.5% .300 5.24 4.94 128 120
Brandon Brennan 58.0 277 13.0% 12.6% .306 6.21 5.90 152 143
Matt Purke 62.7 291 13.7% 9.6% .304 6.18 5.85 151 141
Peter Tago 61.3 289 18.7% 14.2% .308 5.43 5.19 133 126
Jacob Turner 81.3 373 14.5% 8.3% .309 5.98 5.16 146 125
Tim Crabbe 91.0 418 15.8% 9.6% .307 5.84 5.42 143 131
Phillippe Aumont 68.3 333 19.8% 17.7% .304 5.93 5.80 145 140
Hector Noesi 109.7 495 16.2% 8.1% .298 5.91 5.40 144 131
Arcenio Leon 40.7 201 14.9% 16.4% .304 6.64 6.52 162 158
Tyler Danish 123.0 575 13.2% 9.4% .311 6.22 5.79 152 140
Myles Jaye 134.7 621 12.9% 8.9% .302 6.22 5.71 152 138
Nik Turley 93.3 443 16.7% 12.6% .297 6.75 6.55 165 158
Matt Lollis 66.3 315 16.8% 13.0% .301 6.51 6.20 159 150

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Chris Sale 195.7 11.08 1.89 0.92 138 5.9 Ron Guidry
Jose Quintana 195.3 7.65 2.17 0.78 110 4.1 John Candelaria
Carlos Rodon 158.3 9.61 3.58 1.08 108 3.2 Mark Langston
David Robertson 60.3 12.39 2.54 0.90 145 1.3 Kiko Calero
Erik Johnson 141.7 7.62 3.87 1.14 88 1.2 Jim Dorsey
John Danks 166.0 6.18 2.71 1.30 84 1.0 Andrew Lorraine
Zach Putnam 55.0 9.98 3.76 0.82 120 0.7 Rich Garces
Nate Jones 54.3 10.44 3.15 0.83 118 0.7 Cliff Politte
Zach Duke 54.7 10.20 3.95 1.15 109 0.5 Damaso Marte
Dan Jennings 57.3 8.32 3.46 0.79 105 0.5 Mike Munoz
Jake Petricka 70.7 7.00 3.31 0.76 104 0.5 Eddie Watt
Matt Albers 33.0 6.55 2.73 0.82 108 0.3 Jim Umbricht
Jesse Crain 17.0 9.53 3.71 1.06 111 0.2 Jeff Nelson
Zach Phillips 41.3 9.15 4.14 0.87 99 0.2 Ricardo Jordan
Onelki Garcia 43.3 9.15 5.40 1.25 86 0.0 Tim Drummond
Josh Wall 43.7 8.03 3.91 1.03 91 0.0 Keith Shepherd
Chris Beck 105.3 5.04 3.08 1.28 76 0.0 Jason Karnuth
Terance Marin 79.0 5.47 2.73 1.25 79 0.0 Dicky Gonzalez
Matt Lindstrom 33.7 6.14 2.94 0.80 91 0.0 Fred Gladding
Tommy Kahnle 63.0 9.86 5.29 1.14 90 -0.1 Billy Sadler
Scott Carroll 99.3 5.17 3.35 1.27 77 -0.1 Randy Kramer
Cody Winiarski 41.7 8.63 4.32 1.29 83 -0.2 Jaime Cerda
Javy Guerra 34.0 6.88 3.97 1.32 82 -0.2 Paul Giel
Michael Ynoa 42.7 8.43 4.85 1.26 81 -0.3 Jaime Cerda
Tyler Barnette 81.3 5.31 3.65 1.22 76 -0.3 Rosman Garcia
Will Lamb 55.0 7.69 5.24 1.15 81 -0.4 Tom Thurberg
Mark Blackmar 128.0 4.22 3.45 1.20 73 -0.4 Bobby Howry
Daniel Webb 64.3 7.56 5.46 0.98 80 -0.5 Heathcliff Slocumb
Maikel Cleto 55.0 10.47 5.07 1.64 79 -0.5 Bo Donaldson
Brandon Brennan 58.0 5.59 5.43 1.40 66 -0.6 Tim Harrell
Matt Purke 62.7 5.74 4.02 1.72 67 -0.7 Joe Humphries
Peter Tago 61.3 7.93 6.02 1.17 76 -0.7 Edwardo Sierra
Jacob Turner 81.3 5.98 3.43 1.55 69 -0.7 Donne Wall
Tim Crabbe 91.0 6.53 3.96 1.58 71 -0.8 David Walters
Phillippe Aumont 68.3 8.70 7.77 1.32 69 -0.8 Jake Robbins
Hector Noesi 109.7 6.56 3.28 1.80 70 -0.9 Pat Rice
Arcenio Leon 40.7 6.63 7.30 1.55 62 -1.0 Dick Selma
Tyler Danish 123.0 5.56 3.95 1.68 66 -1.4 Larry McWilliams
Myles Jaye 134.7 5.35 3.67 1.67 66 -1.4 Jim Brower
Nik Turley 93.3 7.14 5.40 2.12 61 -1.7 Chris Waters
Matt Lollis 66.3 7.19 5.57 1.90 63 -1.8 John Thompson

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2016. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.



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Regression is Mean
Member
Regression is Mean
3 months 27 days ago

I know you can’t simply add projected WAR to 48 wins (replacement level) and produce an expected # of wins for the team, and I am not one to wish a karate chop from Dan S… but having 38 projected WAR for the expected starters would seem to suggest a team competing for the AL Central, not the tale of woe I keep hearing about. I suppose it is the lack of depth that is the expected issue, but nonetheless this seems more encouraging than perhaps the storyline has been.

mikecws91
Member
3 months 27 days ago

I think that’s mainly because of rosy projections for the catchers and middle infielders (especially Saladino) and no real dour projections. Yes, you could call Garcia’s and LaRoche’s dour, but they’re to be expected, and the team has been trying all offseason to replace Garcia. If you replace him with Fowler or Jackson, and change that 0 in right field to a 2, you’re in business.

Otter
Member
Member
Otter
3 months 27 days ago

If Saladino’s glove is that good…

cornflake5000
Member
cornflake5000
3 months 27 days ago

I’m watching from the other side of town, so take this with a grain of salt… when I think of the Sox, I think of low on-base, righthanded, all or nothing sluggers. Eaton is a lefty and he he and Abreu have good on base percentages, so my generalization of the team is obviously oversimplified. And of all the talk about how dominant (from their broadcasters) their rotation is… they have two established stars, Rodon is very talented, but hardly a sure thing, and two holes in the 4th & 5th spots.

For a few years now their plan has been for everything to break perfectly, but that’s something that rarely happens.

A guy like Gordon would have been a perfect fit. Another established starter to take some of the pressure off Rodon having to be good. A really nice defensive player up the middle.

What they’re doing now feels a lot like the Hendry years for the Cubs.

Muzz
Member
Muzz
3 months 27 days ago

Preaching to the choir, Cornflake. They bank on players hitting their 80th percentile outcome every year, and shockingly, that doesn’t happen. That being said, adding another veteran pitcher (I’d like to see them go after Andrew Cashner) and Dexter Fowler would really put them in the middle of things in the ALC, where a 60th percentile outcome for the team would likely mean playoffs.

cornflake5000
Member
cornflake5000
3 months 27 days ago

It feels like they and the Bulls are stuck in this circle that they can’t get out of. I don’t think either team can win the Championship even if it all breaks perfectly (obviously baseball’s more random), but they both have a cluster of players that make you believe you should still go for it. I can’t see either team winning it all without a reboot, but both teams would have a tough time selling that. I know Southside fans are very proud, I hope things work out for you guys!

Otter
Member
Member
Otter
3 months 27 days ago

As someone who sits on the right side of town, you’re probably being generous with the “all” part of the all or nothing sluggers. Eaton wasn’t second on the team in homers last year.

Danks was decent last year for a backend guy, but of course he’s not being paid to be a decent back end pitcher. Who knows if he can do it again and Johnson can’t seem to find the strike zone in his limited MLB experience. Both Beck and Turner’s projections should scare Sox fans; ZiPS sure doesn’t seem to think they have anyone to fill in if anyone gets hurt or Johnson does what he did in 2014.

I don’t think their plan was for everything to break perfectly, the plan seems to be (still) to not do a full teardown and add pieces here or there over time (Abreu, Davidson, Eaton; Melky, Robertson, LaRoche; now Frazier and Lawrie; obviously some have not worked out). 2016 is supposed to be the year that it starts coming together, but I think some of the contracts/trades they made last year (LaRoche/Shark) are biting them in the you know what now. I’m not sure what lead them to believe they could win in 2015 even with those moves.

If the Sox don’t upgrade in right field, I’ll be for a loss. ZiPS and others sure do think they’re pretty far up on the AL Central win curve.

FWIW I think of the Cubs as all or nothing with Russell, Bryant, Schwarber, Montero, and Soler; which is probably in part why they went out and got Heyward and Zorbrist.

cornflake5000
Member
cornflake5000
3 months 27 days ago

Bryant and Schwarber should both walk 70+ times a year, but both could be low average sluggers. Russell has walked a lot in the low minors, but stopped in AA… but he’s been the youngest player in the league, so there’s hope. I expect those three to be extremely valuable players… I like what Soler could do… but I’d trade him in a second for a #2 if possible. But yeah… they needed to add OB so Heyward and Zobrist will really help. They’ve got SP depth to get them through the season, but I do see where quality could be a problem in the playoffs.

takehomejoan
Member
takehomejoan
3 months 24 days ago

writing the Cubs ticket to October in January
what a scary world we live in

yinkadoubledare
Member
yinkadoubledare
3 months 27 days ago

By all reports Gordon was the guy they targeted.

MonkeyMan
Member
Member
MonkeyMan
3 months 27 days ago

Jose Abreu: Michael Dukakis’ least-favorite player?

wily mo
Member
3 months 27 days ago

was trying to figure out how to approach this joke, this’ll do

Antonio Bananas
Member
Member
Antonio Bananas
3 months 27 days ago

AL Central is a complete toss up. Wouldn’t be surprised if the entire division fell between 78-85 wins.

Otter
Member
Member
Otter
3 months 27 days ago

Royal fans?

Rational Fan
Member
Rational Fan
3 months 27 days ago

The key to the roster, in my opinion, is the progression of Rodon.

If Rodon takes a step forward – mainly if he can cut his BB rate down in the 3.0-3.5 range – this team should be able to compete even with holes elsewhere.

You could argue, that outside of the Mets, the White Sox have the best young 1-2-3 in baseball by a decent margin. Rodon has #1 starter written all over him; his control is a concern, but every young arm is going to have a question or two. There’s no denying his stuff.

A great front end of a rotation, paired with a very good back end of the rotation (Jones/Robertson), can make up for a few of the holes in the field.

I would be floored if Saladino was a 2 WAR player though; think the White Sox are better off using Sanchez at short because he’s proven to be a better hitter and his glove is every bit as good. Sanchez struggled the first two months last year, but started to figure it out after that. He’s a high contact guy, with limited power, but he control the bat well.

cwsoxfan
Member
cwsoxfan
3 months 26 days ago

Not sure Sanchez has SS range. Anderson is 23, give him the gig.

Beel418
Member
Beel418
3 months 26 days ago

Why does Quintana have the biggest FIP-ERA gap in the rotation? Doesn’t make sense.

Regression is Mean
Member
Regression is Mean
3 months 26 days ago

It appears he is projected to have the most balls in play and given the defense will be hurt the most from it.

cwsoxfan
Member
cwsoxfan
3 months 26 days ago

Melky is the guy everyone is missing, imo. If he’s 2nd half Melky, that’s a good lineup. (His range is awful, but his arm is decent) Why doesn’t Avi for Jay Bruce happen, already? Also, E Johnson put up a .7 WAR, in 6 starts, last year.

tz
Member
tz
3 months 26 days ago

Love the Sale/Guidry comp. Talk about maxing out the filthy-stuff-to-BMI ratio….

takehomejoan
Member
takehomejoan
3 months 24 days ago

Im not ready to give up on Avisail Garcia . He hit over .300 as a rookie in a SMALL amount of playing time during the Tigers 2012 World Series run, and Leyland added him to the WS roster against San Fran

His body type is massive, and he draws comparison to Miggy based on his stance and heritage. In April of 2014 (first full season, age 23) he homered twice in a rout of Colorado then the next day tore the labrum in his right shoulder and missed the entire year.

I was the only Sox fan I know of that wasnt flipping out over the possibility of adding Alex Gordon or Cespedes. Give this kid 600 more at-bats. They talk about him like he’s lousy and made it a point that this is his last year in Chicago if he doesnt swing it. I thought he was our next Magglio Ordonez and he looks more like the next Dayan Viciedo. I have faith in him to hit .275 with 20 homers this year. If everyone in the Sox lineup hits like theyre supposed to, this is an upper- tier offense.

takehomejoan
Member
takehomejoan
3 months 24 days ago

also, Melky Cabrera is not a “1” , even after last year. He’s never been a “1” . He’s at least a “2”

takehomejoan
Member
takehomejoan
3 months 24 days ago

After making the moves for Lawrie and Frazier, I dont see how they couldnt extend a one year deal to Alexei Ramirez. You know what youre going to get out of him, he could bridge the gap to Tim Anderson, and you could have overpaid for his services on a 1 year deal.

I have a feeling, although buying talent isnt the way, that Ian Desmond ends up here. Another possibility is: that if the Sox hang around in contention at the deadline they acquire a Jose Reyes to play short. Makes no sense that they put together a solid solid lineup and they have Saladino at shortstop.

The real problem that keeps this team back in 2016 is the lack of a righty #2 starter in that rotation behid Sale.

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