2016 ZiPS Projections – Detroit Tigers

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Detroit Tigers. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago NL / Cincinnati / Cleveland / Houston / Kansas City / Los Angeles NL / Minnesota / New York AL / New York NL / Philadelphia / Pittsburgh / San Diego / Seattle / Texas / Toronto.

Batters
This entry regarding Detroit’s position players and their relative strengths looked different at roughly 4pm ET yesterday, when the idiot author originally composed it. That version of the Tigers featured some combination of Anthony Gose (561 PA, 0.9 zWAR) and Mike Aviles (347 PA, 0.3 zWAR) in left field, accounting for little more than a win between them. What happened in the meantime, however, is Detroit signed Justin Upton to a six year, $132.8 million deal. The move, broadly speaking, appears to have added slightly more than two wins to the club’s projections.

While certainly benefiting the Tigers, the acquisition of Upton does little to counteract the team’s recent history of employing stars (on the one hand) and scrubs (on the other). Miguel Cabrera, Ian Kinsler, J.D. Martinez, and Upton are all projected to record a mark of 3.5 WAR or higher; every other field player on the roster, 1.6 WAR or lower. Of course, a distinct advantage to this particular method of roster construction is that it becomes much easier to upgrade this or that position — especially if the club’s owner is both (a) fabulously wealthy and (b) motivated by the proximity of his own, real death.

Pitchers
There’s probably an immutable law in science which suggests something to the effect that matter has a tendency of returning to its original state. Unfortunately, there’s no way of confirming such a law exists. Regardless, a hastily made graph utilizing arbitrary endpoints reveals that, if nothing else, the Detroit Tigers’ starting rotation has returned to its original state — so long as “original state” is also defined as “2008.”

Dumb WAR Graph

What had previously been a clear strength for the club was not that in 2015, as Tigers starting pitchers produced the fourth-worst collective WAR in the majors. And while the addition of Jordan Zimmermann ought to provide some certain benefit for 2016, it’s unlikely that this group will rival its predecessors from 2012-14.

As for the bullpen, it — like almost everything under the sun — is neither excellent nor miserable.

Bench/Prospects
It isn’t so much that Detroit’s scouting and development personnel haven’t cultivated a strong minor-league system,; it’s more that any player of value whom they’ve cultivated now belongs to a different organization. Dixon Machado (520 PA, 1.3 zWAR) is a shortstop who made his major-league debut at age-23 after surviving Triple-A. It’s not surprising to find that Szymborski’s computer has produced a relatively optimistic forecast for him. Among pitchers omitted from the depth-chart graphic below, left-hander Matt Boyd (125.2 IP, 0.9 zWAR) receives the top projection.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Detroitoisie, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Tigers Depth New

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats
Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
J.D. Martinez R 28 RF 618 83 159 31 3 35 98 5 2
Miguel Cabrera R 33 1B 566 71 151 30 1 24 88 2 1
Justin Upton R 28 LF 618 87 143 27 3 28 86 13 4
Ian Kinsler R 34 2B 640 85 164 33 5 12 72 11 6
Nick Castellanos R 24 3B 614 52 150 34 5 16 75 1 2
Jose Iglesias R 26 SS 438 42 110 14 2 3 28 9 6
James McCann R 26 C 458 39 109 22 3 6 41 3 2
Victor Martinez B 37 DH 497 50 125 23 0 18 79 1 1
Dixon Machado R 24 SS 520 50 114 22 2 5 39 9 3
Jarrod Saltalamacchia B 31 C 358 39 71 17 0 12 39 1 1
Mike Gerber L 23 RF 489 55 110 23 5 15 57 9 4
Anthony Gose L 25 CF 561 69 125 21 7 6 36 26 11
Cameron Maybin R 29 CF 405 51 97 15 3 7 44 14 4
Tommy Field R 29 2B 433 45 89 18 2 9 37 5 1
Jason Krizan L 27 RF 510 48 113 21 2 6 40 7 4
JaCoby Jones R 24 SS 562 58 109 18 3 16 57 14 7
Miguel Gonzalez R 25 C 226 21 50 12 1 2 19 2 1
Bryan Holaday R 28 C 252 22 56 12 1 4 26 1 1
Jefry Marte R 25 3B 460 51 104 21 2 14 55 6 3
Rafael Lopez L 28 C 320 31 68 13 1 3 26 1 1
Wynton Bernard R 25 CF 465 47 105 18 3 4 35 22 11
Andrew Romine B 30 SS 309 33 68 8 1 3 21 10 5
Mike Aviles R 35 2B 347 40 80 13 0 6 31 7 3
Ross Kivett R 24 CF 496 49 110 21 2 5 40 12 4
Austin Green R 26 C 314 28 67 11 1 6 27 0 1
Alexi Casilla B 31 2B 273 28 63 11 1 2 23 8 3
Steven Moya L 24 RF 543 60 118 25 2 25 71 7 3
Brendan Harris R 35 SS 168 18 34 6 1 3 14 0 1
Mike Hessman R 38 1B 432 53 90 13 1 18 58 3 2
Casper Wells R 31 LF 99 10 17 3 0 2 7 0 0
Tyler Collins L 26 LF 497 49 109 20 2 12 52 8 3
Mean Dean Green L 27 1B 428 45 99 16 1 11 44 1 1
Nate Schierholtz L 32 RF 335 33 72 15 2 9 38 3 3
Alberto Gonzalez R 33 SS 206 18 47 8 1 2 17 1 1
Corey Jones L 28 2B 361 32 79 16 1 3 27 3 4
Trayvon Robinson B 28 CF 355 34 72 14 1 5 27 11 4
Josh Wilson R 35 2B 326 29 65 12 1 3 26 4 2
Gustavo Nunez B 28 SS 298 28 64 8 1 2 19 9 6
Jeff McVaney R 26 RF 511 47 105 19 3 6 39 9 5
John Mayberry Jr. R 32 RF 243 24 48 13 1 6 25 1 1
Dominic Ficociello B 24 1B 501 47 105 20 2 8 42 5 3

***

Batters, Rates and Averages
Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA
J.D. Martinez 618 7.4% 26.9% .253 .339 .282 .340 .535 .369
Miguel Cabrera 566 11.7% 16.4% .211 .334 .306 .389 .517 .375
Justin Upton 618 10.8% 24.9% .216 .316 .265 .348 .481 .360
Ian Kinsler 640 5.9% 11.4% .134 .297 .277 .324 .411 .326
Nick Castellanos 614 6.7% 22.8% .163 .323 .265 .314 .428 .321
Jose Iglesias 438 5.0% 12.6% .068 .310 .275 .322 .343 .299
James McCann 458 3.7% 21.4% .107 .313 .253 .288 .360 .284
Victor Martinez 497 7.6% 9.3% .172 .274 .279 .338 .451 .323
Dixon Machado 520 6.3% 17.1% .087 .286 .241 .292 .328 .275
Jarrod Saltalamacchia 358 10.6% 33.2% .169 .314 .225 .307 .394 .305
Mike Gerber 489 5.7% 21.9% .174 .285 .245 .293 .419 .312
Anthony Gose 561 7.8% 27.3% .104 .341 .247 .312 .351 .309
Cameron Maybin 405 7.4% 18.3% .114 .308 .261 .317 .375 .312
Tommy Field 433 7.6% 21.9% .126 .277 .229 .295 .355 .288
Jason Krizan 510 7.6% 13.3% .093 .273 .245 .302 .338 .286
JaCoby Jones 562 5.9% 35.4% .141 .305 .212 .265 .353 .278
Miguel Gonzalez 226 4.4% 19.9% .095 .293 .238 .278 .333 .269
Bryan Holaday 252 4.0% 19.8% .112 .286 .240 .277 .352 .273
Jefry Marte 460 6.5% 19.8% .159 .281 .247 .301 .406 .312
Rafael Lopez 320 8.4% 23.4% .083 .305 .234 .301 .317 .276
Wynton Bernard 465 5.6% 18.5% .084 .297 .245 .292 .329 .290
Andrew Romine 309 5.8% 20.1% .067 .297 .240 .289 .307 .273
Mike Aviles 347 4.3% 11.8% .097 .266 .249 .282 .346 .277
Ross Kivett 496 5.2% 15.3% .087 .274 .239 .285 .326 .277
Austin Green 314 4.1% 23.9% .105 .284 .228 .266 .333 .263
Alexi Casilla 273 5.1% 16.1% .075 .290 .247 .288 .322 .278
Steven Moya 543 3.9% 34.6% .202 .304 .229 .262 .431 .300
Brendan Harris 168 9.5% 16.7% .116 .263 .231 .311 .347 .293
Mike Hessman 432 7.2% 26.6% .176 .271 .229 .285 .405 .298
Casper Wells 99 8.1% 31.3% .100 .263 .189 .263 .289 .249
Tyler Collins 497 6.6% 22.9% .131 .290 .239 .294 .370 .295
Mean Dean Green 428 5.8% 19.9% .130 .292 .251 .304 .381 .300
Nate Schierholtz 335 4.8% 23.0% .147 .274 .230 .272 .377 .285
Alberto Gonzalez 206 3.4% 13.6% .082 .271 .241 .270 .323 .260
Corey Jones 361 4.7% 18.8% .080 .286 .236 .279 .316 .268
Trayvon Robinson 355 7.3% 26.2% .096 .295 .222 .281 .318 .275
Josh Wilson 326 4.3% 27.0% .075 .288 .214 .256 .289 .246
Gustavo Nunez 298 4.7% 19.5% .058 .287 .233 .271 .291 .258
Jeff McVaney 511 5.7% 22.7% .092 .284 .224 .282 .316 .273
John Mayberry Jr. 243 7.4% 23.5% .149 .263 .216 .280 .365 .283
Dominic Ficociello 501 5.2% 26.3% .103 .294 .224 .271 .327 .269

***

Batters, Assorted Other
Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
J.D. Martinez 618 6.9 137 0 4.2 Frank Howard
Miguel Cabrera 566 7.8 148 2 4.2 Manny Ramirez
Justin Upton 618 6.3 126 1 3.7 Chili Davis
Ian Kinsler 640 5.0 102 7 3.5 Ryne Sandberg
Nick Castellanos 614 4.9 103 -10 1.6 Mathew Gamel
Jose Iglesias 438 4.0 84 3 1.6 Mike Bordick
James McCann 458 3.7 78 1 1.5 Pat Borders
Victor Martinez 497 5.7 116 0 1.3 Harold Baines
Dixon Machado 520 3.5 71 4 1.3 Josh Asanovich
Jarrod Saltalamacchia 358 4.2 92 -5 1.2 Mike Rose
Mike Gerber 489 4.4 94 4 1.2 Keith Williams
Anthony Gose 561 4.0 83 -4 0.9 Herm Winningham
Cameron Maybin 405 4.5 91 -5 0.8 Juan Beniquez
Tommy Field 433 3.7 79 1 0.8 Jorge Velandia
Jason Krizan 510 3.6 77 9 0.7 Chip Hale
JaCoby Jones 562 3.2 69 1 0.7 BrAndon Tate
Miguel Gonzalez 226 3.3 68 1 0.5 Carlos Corporan
Bryan Holaday 252 3.4 73 0 0.5 Mike DiFelice
Jefry Marte 460 4.4 93 -9 0.5 Steve Buechele
Rafael Lopez 320 3.3 72 -3 0.4 Dusty Brown
Wynton Bernard 465 3.4 72 1 0.4 Buck Coats
Andrew Romine 309 3.2 66 1 0.4 Doug Baker
Mike Aviles 347 3.5 72 1 0.3 Ski Melillo
Ross Kivett 496 3.4 69 1 0.3 Lee Grimes
Austin Green 314 3.0 65 -1 0.2 Joe Cipolloni
Alexi Casilla 273 3.4 69 1 0.2 Warren Morris
Steven Moya 543 4.0 87 -2 0.1 J.R. Phillips
Brendan Harris 168 3.7 82 -3 0.1 Rene Gonzales
Mike Hessman 432 4.0 88 0 -0.1 Deron Johnson
Casper Wells 99 2.5 53 2 -0.2 Dustan Mohr
Tyler Collins 497 3.9 82 -3 -0.2 Tim Norrid
Mean Dean Green 428 4.1 88 -1 -0.2 Dave Yobs
Nate Schierholtz 335 3.5 77 1 -0.2 Dann Howitt
Alberto Gonzalez 206 3.0 63 -2 -0.2 Rafael Bournigal
Corey Jones 361 3.0 65 -1 -0.4 Edwin Maysonet
Trayvon Robinson 355 3.2 66 -4 -0.4 Jason Jackson
Josh Wilson 326 2.6 51 2 -0.5 Jeff Branson
Gustavo Nunez 298 2.7 56 -3 -0.6 Vance McHenry
Jeff McVaney 511 3.1 66 3 -0.7 Ralph Kraus
John Mayberry Jr. 243 3.5 77 -5 -0.8 Darrell Whitmore
Dominic Ficociello 501 3.1 65 1 -1.5 Jon Zeringue

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats
Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER
Justin Verlander R 33 26 26 164.3 141 47 16 159 76 71
Jordan Zimmermann R 30 30 30 181.3 137 35 23 187 87 81
Anibal Sanchez R 32 24 24 144.0 134 43 16 136 67 63
Daniel Norris L 23 28 28 145.7 125 61 17 148 77 72
Matt Boyd L 25 24 24 125.7 101 42 17 133 70 65
Alfredo Simon R 35 26 26 155.7 90 51 20 170 91 85
Francisco Rodriguez R 34 55 0 48.7 48 11 6 43 19 18
Blaine Hardy L 29 62 0 59.3 56 21 5 56 26 24
Kevin Ziomek L 24 25 25 128.0 102 54 15 137 74 69
Justin Wilson L 28 69 0 62.0 60 25 5 55 27 25
Alex Wilson R 29 59 0 69.0 42 17 6 70 31 29
Mark Lowe R 33 56 0 53.7 54 16 6 50 24 22
Randy Wolf L 39 24 21 118.7 83 45 14 134 70 65
Michael Fulmer R 23 22 22 114.7 95 38 17 126 67 63
Mike Pelfrey R 32 21 21 112.7 60 36 11 131 66 62
Bruce Rondon R 25 48 0 45.0 46 23 5 43 24 22
Joe Jimenez R 21 36 0 35.3 38 13 5 34 18 17
Shane Greene R 27 25 24 127.0 85 41 17 146 79 74
Joe Nathan R 41 21 0 19.7 18 9 2 19 11 10
Drew VerHagen R 25 46 0 61.3 38 26 5 63 32 30
Kyle Ryan L 24 31 24 148.3 80 49 19 173 92 86
Austin Kubitza R 24 25 25 127.7 82 55 15 148 81 76
Paul Voelker R 23 34 0 41.7 39 20 6 42 24 22
Preston Guilmet R 28 48 0 57.7 46 18 8 60 32 30
Logan Kensing R 33 41 0 53.3 37 24 6 56 30 28
Whit Mayberry R 26 26 0 49.3 35 16 6 53 28 26
Rafael Dolis R 28 27 0 37.3 27 22 4 39 22 21
Dustin Molleken R 31 37 1 48.3 43 25 7 50 29 27
Jeff Ferrell R 25 48 0 52.3 42 17 8 58 31 29
Joe Mantiply L 25 43 0 66.3 49 22 9 72 39 36
Drake Britton L 27 36 9 83.0 46 36 11 94 54 50
Josh Zeid R 29 47 2 58.3 46 32 9 63 37 35
Buck Farmer R 25 28 21 120.3 90 43 22 137 80 75
Jose Valdez R 26 51 0 57.0 45 39 8 61 37 35
Angel Nesbitt R 25 52 0 63.3 44 29 9 70 41 38
Melvin Mercedes R 25 45 1 61.0 36 21 10 71 41 38
Joshua Turley L 25 30 17 116.7 71 39 22 138 80 75
Montreal Robertson R 26 38 1 67.7 44 41 9 77 47 44
Ross Seaton R 26 21 18 101.7 50 29 19 128 75 70
Lendy Castillo R 27 31 2 54.0 36 38 10 63 43 40
Jairo Labourt L 22 23 22 94.3 69 73 16 108 73 68
Kurt Spomer R 26 50 0 62.7 31 29 11 76 46 43
Thad Weber R 31 25 22 124.3 72 39 26 152 91 85

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages
Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Justin Verlander 164.3 699 20.2% 6.7% .291 3.89 3.57 96 89
Jordan Zimmermann 181.3 766 17.9% 4.6% .291 4.02 3.92 99 98
Anibal Sanchez 144.0 611 21.9% 7.0% .288 3.94 3.61 97 90
Daniel Norris 145.7 646 19.3% 9.4% .300 4.45 4.29 110 107
Matt Boyd 125.7 552 18.3% 7.6% .301 4.66 4.43 115 110
Alfredo Simon 155.7 688 13.1% 7.4% .289 4.91 4.70 121 117
Francisco Rodriguez 48.7 200 24.0% 5.5% .274 3.33 3.35 82 84
Blaine Hardy 59.3 255 22.0% 8.2% .298 3.64 3.38 90 84
Kevin Ziomek 128.0 575 17.7% 9.4% .308 4.85 4.49 120 112
Justin Wilson 62.0 266 22.6% 9.4% .289 3.63 3.48 90 87
Alex Wilson 69.0 294 14.3% 5.8% .282 3.78 3.80 93 95
Mark Lowe 53.7 227 23.8% 7.0% .295 3.69 3.44 91 86
Randy Wolf 118.7 535 15.5% 8.4% .310 4.93 4.50 122 112
Michael Fulmer 114.7 508 18.7% 7.5% .310 4.94 4.53 122 113
Mike Pelfrey 112.7 505 11.9% 7.1% .307 4.95 4.45 122 111
Bruce Rondon 45.0 201 22.9% 11.4% .304 4.40 4.11 109 102
Joe Jimenez 35.3 153 24.9% 8.5% .306 4.33 4.07 107 101
Shane Greene 127.0 568 15.0% 7.2% .309 5.24 4.62 129 115
Joe Nathan 19.7 87 20.7% 10.3% .293 4.58 3.82 113 95
Drew VerHagen 61.3 273 13.9% 9.5% .287 4.40 4.20 109 105
Kyle Ryan 148.3 667 12.0% 7.3% .300 5.22 4.78 129 119
Austin Kubitza 127.7 586 14.0% 9.4% .312 5.36 4.83 132 120
Paul Voelker 41.7 187 20.8% 10.7% .300 4.75 4.62 117 115
Preston Guilmet 57.7 251 18.3% 7.2% .295 4.68 4.30 115 107
Logan Kensing 53.3 240 15.4% 10.0% .294 4.72 4.70 116 117
Whit Mayberry 49.3 217 16.1% 7.4% .298 4.74 4.18 117 104
Rafael Dolis 37.3 173 15.6% 12.7% .297 5.06 4.98 125 124
Dustin Molleken 48.3 220 19.6% 11.4% .303 5.03 4.89 124 122
Jeff Ferrell 52.3 232 18.1% 7.3% .309 4.99 4.58 123 114
Joe Mantiply 66.3 293 16.7% 7.5% .302 4.88 4.52 120 113
Drake Britton 83.0 379 12.1% 9.5% .294 5.42 5.13 134 128
Josh Zeid 58.3 270 17.0% 11.9% .300 5.40 5.23 133 130
Buck Farmer 120.3 541 16.6% 7.9% .304 5.61 5.23 138 130
Jose Valdez 57.0 271 16.6% 14.4% .301 5.53 5.46 136 136
Angel Nesbitt 63.3 289 15.2% 10.0% .302 5.40 5.08 133 127
Melvin Mercedes 61.0 275 13.1% 7.6% .298 5.61 5.19 138 129
Joshua Turley 116.7 527 13.5% 7.4% .299 5.79 5.50 143 137
Montreal Robertson 67.7 321 13.7% 12.8% .305 5.85 5.44 144 136
Ross Seaton 101.7 462 10.8% 6.3% .305 6.20 5.58 153 139
Lendy Castillo 54.0 263 13.7% 14.4% .303 6.67 6.51 165 162
Jairo Labourt 94.3 464 14.9% 15.7% .307 6.49 6.36 160 158
Kurt Spomer 62.7 293 10.6% 9.9% .297 6.18 5.79 152 144
Thad Weber 124.3 564 12.8% 6.9% .300 6.15 5.78 152 144

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Justin Verlander 164.3 7.72 2.57 0.88 106 2.8 Ken Hill
Jordan Zimmermann 181.3 6.80 1.74 1.14 102 2.7 Chris Bosio
Anibal Sanchez 144.0 8.38 2.69 1.00 104 2.4 Mark Gardner
Daniel Norris 145.7 7.72 3.77 1.05 92 1.4 Paul Maholm
Matt Boyd 125.7 7.23 3.01 1.22 88 0.9 Horacio Estrada
Alfredo Simon 155.7 5.20 2.95 1.16 84 0.6 Aaron Sele
Francisco Rodriguez 48.7 8.87 2.03 1.11 123 0.6 Rick Aguilera
Blaine Hardy 59.3 8.50 3.19 0.76 113 0.6 Doug Capilla
Kevin Ziomek 128.0 7.17 3.80 1.05 85 0.5 Harold Allen
Justin Wilson 62.0 8.71 3.63 0.73 113 0.5 Randy Choate
Alex Wilson 69.0 5.48 2.22 0.78 109 0.5 Dan Quisenberry
Mark Lowe 53.7 9.05 2.68 1.01 111 0.4 Joe Borowski
Randy Wolf 118.7 6.29 3.41 1.06 83 0.4 Mark Langston
Michael Fulmer 114.7 7.45 2.98 1.33 83 0.4 Roy Smith
Mike Pelfrey 112.7 4.79 2.87 0.88 83 0.4 Charlie Robertson
Bruce Rondon 45.0 9.20 4.60 1.00 93 0.0 Josh Banks
Joe Jimenez 35.3 9.69 3.31 1.27 95 0.0 Jim Miller
Shane Greene 127.0 6.02 2.91 1.20 78 -0.1 Marcus Jones
Joe Nathan 19.7 8.22 4.11 0.91 90 -0.1 Doug Brocail
Drew VerHagen 61.3 5.58 3.82 0.73 93 -0.1 Ron Willis
Kyle Ryan 148.3 4.86 2.97 1.15 79 -0.1 Wes Whisler
Austin Kubitza 127.7 5.78 3.88 1.06 77 -0.2 Rich Loiselle
Paul Voelker 41.7 8.42 4.32 1.29 86 -0.2 Anthony Solomon
Preston Guilmet 57.7 7.18 2.81 1.25 88 -0.3 Jack Hardy
Logan Kensing 53.3 6.25 4.05 1.01 87 -0.3 Jerry Johnson
Whit Mayberry 49.3 6.39 2.92 1.10 87 -0.3 Jeff Sexton
Rafael Dolis 37.3 6.51 5.31 0.97 81 -0.4 Paul Giel
Dustin Molleken 48.3 8.01 4.66 1.30 82 -0.4 Mike Jeffcoat
Jeff Ferrell 52.3 7.23 2.93 1.38 82 -0.5 Paul Thorpe
Joe Mantiply 66.3 6.65 2.99 1.22 84 -0.5 Anthony Shelby
Drake Britton 83.0 4.99 3.90 1.19 76 -0.5 Matt White
Josh Zeid 58.3 7.10 4.94 1.39 76 -0.6 James Warden
Buck Farmer 120.3 6.73 3.22 1.65 73 -0.7 Mark Nussbeck
Jose Valdez 57.0 7.11 6.16 1.26 74 -0.8 Edwardo Sierra
Angel Nesbitt 63.3 6.26 4.12 1.28 76 -0.9 Matt Smith
Melvin Mercedes 61.0 5.31 3.10 1.48 73 -1.0 Scott Strickland
Joshua Turley 116.7 5.48 3.01 1.70 71 -1.0 Joe Horgan
Montreal Robertson 67.7 5.85 5.45 1.20 70 -1.2 J.D. Brammer
Ross Seaton 101.7 4.42 2.57 1.68 66 -1.4 Justin Pope
Lendy Castillo 54.0 6.00 6.33 1.67 62 -1.5 Brad Tweedlie
Jairo Labourt 94.3 6.59 6.97 1.53 63 -1.5 Jason Saenz
Kurt Spomer 62.7 4.45 4.16 1.58 67 -1.5 Matt Smith
Thad Weber 124.3 5.21 2.82 1.88 67 -1.5 R.A. Dickey

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2016. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.



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Owen S
Member
Owen S
4 months 8 days ago

Aaaaand let the guaranteed 8 year, 248 million dollar contract begin….for a 33 year old first baseman….whose value has already begun to decline…..who last year, one year before the beginning of his mega deal, started showing signs of wear and tear.

Bip
Member
Member
Bip
4 months 8 days ago

He still managed a 165 wRC+, and it was his first season ever in which he played fewer than 148 games. Not that that contract has any chance of being a steal, but honestly I don’t think Tiger fans have to start hating this deal yet. I’d take it over quite a few others in baseball right now.

TwinPeaks
Member
TwinPeaks
4 months 8 days ago

Agreed – considering Miggy is very consistent – you can write him in for a 900 OPS, and probably closer to 1000 (ZIPS projection, as usual, is conservative), I don’t think the fans are sharpening their sabers over this contract yet. Perhaps in 3 or 4 years.

brett
Member
brett
4 months 8 days ago

Exactly. he’s still a great player and a great guy to cheer for. I don’t think anyone expects the contract to pay off on the field but we’re talking four years of overpay to lock down one of the all-time greats and a Tigers cap in the Hall of Fame. I’ll deal with the bad years.

Goldsteins_Tool_Fedora
Member
Goldsteins_Tool_Fedora
4 months 7 days ago

The Miggy contract is not went wrong here. Victor Martinez, Anibal Sanchez… combined with a sudden decline of Verlander and poor scouting and minor league development.

KwisatzHaderach
Member
KwisatzHaderach
4 months 7 days ago

It’s a bit premature to say that anything went WRONG here. Victor is the contract they shouldn’t have issued, but why not? Mike Ilitch isn’t pocketing his revenues, he’s putting them all right back on the field. Considering the Tigers the way we would the Mets or something is a mistake. We’ll see if there’s really a decline in Verlander this year now that he’s healthy. He was the third best pitcher in the game in the second half. Bit premature to bury him based on a non-arm issue injury going into 2014. They also have Daniel Norris and Michael Fulmer, as well as quite a bit of talent under age 30. If Nick Castellanos builds on his second half, you might have a second tier hitter added into the mix as well. It’s true they need to develop more homegrown talent going forward, but they still have a window before they really need all that much help to compete. If Norris and Fulmer are both good mid-rotation starters by 2017, the train is going to keep right on trucking.

formerly matt w
Member
formerly matt w
4 months 8 days ago

BrAndon Tate

Hey!

johnnycuff
Member
johnnycuff
4 months 8 days ago

*Detroit

Patrick
Member
Member
Patrick
4 months 8 days ago

Old Weekend At Bernie’s stunt double Mr. Illitch has obviously employed the old fantasy strategy of “Stars & Scrubs” I hope it pays dividends as a life long Tigers fan. At least the middle of the order will make pitchers think twice about lobbing up meatballs!

wily mo
Member
4 months 8 days ago

given that their hitting numbers last year were almost indistinguishable, their projections for next year are almost indistinguishable, maybin’s defensive numbers in CF last year were a bit sour, and gose is younger and bats left, isn’t a CF platoon heavier on gose more likely than straight-up maybin? unless there’s something i don’t know

Goldsteins_Tool_Fedora
Member
Goldsteins_Tool_Fedora
4 months 7 days ago

Might not be a bad idea to look at moving JD Martinez for a controllable arm.

Radermecher
Member
Radermecher
4 months 5 days ago

Which Verlander shows up in 2016?

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