2016 ZiPS Projections – Los Angeles Angels

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Los Angeles Angels. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Cincinnati / Cleveland / Colorado / Detroit / Houston / Kansas City / Los Angeles NL / Minnesota / New York AL / New York NL / Oakland / Philadelphia / Pittsburgh / St. Louis / San Diego / San Francisco / Seattle / Texas / Toronto / Washington.

Batters
For how much of an outlier it is, Mike Trout‘s projection (688 PA, 9.3 zWAR) represents probably one of the easiest to calculate on the back of an envelope. In each of his first four seasons, he’s produced about five or six wins above average by way of his bat, added another half-win or so by means of base running, and recorded slightly above-average defensive numbers. Add in a little more than two wins’ worth of replacement value and the result is an 8.0-9.0 WAR forecast. Whatever influence there might be from regression is likely offset by a combination of Trout’s youth and the nearly 3,000 plate-appearance sample over which he’s established this level of play. The calculus is a strange combination of simple and impossible, not unlike Trout himself.

A team composed of all exactly replacement-level players and also Mike Trout would record roughly 57 wins over the course of a season — meaning the Angels, as a group, need to augment Trout’s contribution with about 30 wins of their own in order to qualify for the postseason in some fashion. Kole Calhoun (604 PA, 2.7 zWAR) and the newly acquired Andrelton Simmons (590 PA, 3.7 zWAR) would appear to be useful in that endeavor. Depending on the health of his foot, Albert Pujols (602 PA, 2.7 zWAR) might also be, as well. After those four players, however, finding even an average projection among the club’s hitters is difficult.

Pitchers
Garrett Richards‘ 2015 campaign wasn’t bad, at all — he produced slightly above-average fielding-indepdent and run-prevention numbers — but it failed to approximate the quality of his promising and injury-shortened 2014 season, during which he recorded over four wins in 168.2 innings. ZiPS, which calls for 182.1 innings and a 3.8 zWAR from Richards in 2016, expects him to more resemble that 2014 edition of himself. Elsewhere in the rotation, one finds that, while Jered Weaver (151.1 IP, 0.6 zWAR) is likely to work nominally as the club’s No. 2 starter, there are a half-dozen other pitchers on the club forecast to outperfrom him.

With regard to the bullpen, while it doesn’t appear to possess any explicit weaknesses — the five pitchers included in the depth-chart graphic below, for example, are expected to prevent runs at a better-than-average rate — it also doesn’t offer a proper relief ace. Huston Street (55.2 IP, 0.4 zWAR) is the closer and Joe Smith (62.2 IP, 0.6 zWAR) is best acquitted by Dan Szymborski’s computer, but neither is elite. The result is a sub-par projection overall.

Bench/Prospects
The owner of six major-league plate appearances — and even then, from back in 2012 — outfielder Rafael Ortega (437 PA, 1.5 zWAR) was signed by Los Angeles this offseason to a minor-league deal. Despite the modest cost of employing him, Ortega actually receives the third-best projection among Angels outfielders. Catcher Jett Bandy (345 PA, 1.3 zWAR) and waiver-claim infielder Rey Navarro (489 PA, 1.1 zWAR) profile as the club’s other top replacement sorts. With regard to pitchers, left-hander Hector Santiago (153.1 IP, 1.8 zWAR) is omitted from the depth-chart graphic below, but actually receives the third-best forecast among all Angels starters. Young Nick Tropeano (135.2 IP, 1.0 zWAR) is in a similar situation, as well.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Angels, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Angels Depth Chart

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats
Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Mike Trout R 24 CF 688 110 169 34 8 37 101 19 6
Andrelton Simmons R 26 SS 590 61 140 23 4 8 54 5 3
Kole Calhoun L 28 RF 604 82 144 26 3 21 74 6 3
Albert Pujols R 36 1B 602 76 146 30 0 28 90 5 2
Yunel Escobar R 33 3B 544 53 133 20 1 7 47 2 2
Rafael Ortega L 25 CF 437 44 92 14 4 3 31 14 7
David Freese R 33 3B 487 50 109 22 1 11 54 1 2
Jett Bandy R 26 C 345 37 73 15 0 8 35 0 2
Rey Navarro B 26 2B 489 51 113 22 2 8 42 4 5
Carlos Perez R 25 C 367 35 76 18 1 5 34 2 1
Shane Victorino R 35 RF 306 31 68 11 2 5 22 10 1
Craig Gentry R 32 CF 362 39 75 10 2 3 22 16 5
Johnny Giavotella R 28 2B 528 57 124 25 3 5 50 7 3
Geovany Soto R 33 C 194 19 38 8 0 6 21 0 1
Todd Cunningham B 27 RF 510 55 115 20 4 4 42 12 5
Cliff Pennington B 32 2B 268 24 52 8 1 2 18 5 1
Daniel Nava B 33 RF 340 33 70 12 0 5 28 3 1
Jefry Marte R 25 3B 459 50 100 20 2 14 53 6 3
David DeJesus L 36 LF 331 33 70 14 2 5 29 3 3
C.J. Cron R 26 1B 527 54 128 25 2 19 67 3 2
Gregorio Petit R 31 SS 379 37 81 17 1 5 33 1 2
Juan Graterol R 27 C 185 16 43 7 0 2 15 0 0
Sherman Johnson L 25 2B 548 58 102 22 4 7 43 12 5
Kyle Kubitza L 25 3B 541 56 99 26 5 8 46 7 5
Kaleb Cowart B 24 3B 528 52 102 22 3 7 46 11 5
Taylor Featherston R 26 2B 400 39 77 16 3 7 31 8 4
Matt Joyce L 31 LF 392 40 75 17 1 10 41 2 3
Chad Hinshaw R 25 CF 435 44 80 17 2 5 33 21 8
Wade Wass R 24 C 292 29 52 12 1 7 26 1 1
Conor Gillaspie L 28 3B 395 36 90 19 3 7 41 0 2
David Murphy L 34 LF 405 37 95 19 1 9 46 2 3
Kentrail Davis L 28 LF 356 33 69 13 2 3 25 10 5
Ji-Man Choi B 25 1B 261 30 55 11 1 5 27 1 2
Michael Strentz R 24 C 235 23 46 10 1 4 20 3 1
Gary Brown R 27 CF 535 57 109 19 4 7 44 16 12
Nick Buss L 29 RF 460 47 101 15 4 6 41 9 4
Luis Hernandez B 32 2B 185 14 38 5 1 1 16 2 2
Stephen McGee R 25 C 253 21 44 8 0 2 15 1 2
Roger Kieschnick L 29 RF 427 43 85 18 3 10 43 2 2
Andrew Brown R 31 RF 473 49 87 17 2 14 51 2 1
Quintin Berry L 31 RF 413 36 73 9 1 3 24 22 5
Alex Yarbrough B 24 2B 586 51 123 26 3 4 47 4 3

***

Batters, Rates and Averages
Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA
Mike Trout 688 14.1% 22.4% .281 .338 .294 .401 .575 .412
Andrelton Simmons 590 6.1% 9.7% .101 .273 .257 .306 .358 .290
Kole Calhoun 604 7.1% 21.2% .172 .302 .261 .316 .433 .327
Albert Pujols 602 7.0% 11.5% .208 .258 .265 .321 .473 .332
Yunel Escobar 544 7.4% 12.3% .087 .299 .269 .329 .356 .304
Rafael Ortega 437 8.0% 20.1% .078 .292 .234 .298 .312 .282
David Freese 487 7.6% 22.4% .130 .305 .249 .318 .379 .310
Jett Bandy 345 4.3% 21.4% .124 .275 .232 .288 .356 .285
Rey Navarro 489 4.9% 14.9% .110 .278 .248 .285 .358 .284
Carlos Perez 367 6.3% 17.7% .103 .263 .226 .275 .329 .266
Shane Victorino 306 5.6% 16.0% .109 .281 .246 .305 .355 .296
Craig Gentry 362 6.4% 20.4% .070 .283 .229 .287 .299 .273
Johnny Giavotella 528 6.4% 12.3% .096 .285 .257 .307 .353 .292
Geovany Soto 194 8.2% 28.9% .148 .281 .216 .285 .364 .287
Todd Cunningham 510 4.9% 15.9% .086 .290 .247 .297 .333 .282
Cliff Pennington 268 9.3% 20.1% .068 .276 .221 .299 .289 .263
Daniel Nava 340 9.1% 21.8% .092 .295 .236 .324 .328 .295
Jefry Marte 459 6.3% 21.4% .156 .275 .238 .290 .394 .302
David DeJesus 331 7.9% 17.8% .112 .278 .236 .309 .348 .295
C.J. Cron 527 3.8% 19.9% .173 .290 .258 .294 .431 .314
Gregorio Petit 379 4.2% 19.8% .095 .273 .228 .263 .323 .256
Juan Graterol 185 2.2% 15.7% .073 .279 .243 .262 .316 .250
Sherman Johnson 548 9.3% 23.4% .105 .267 .209 .286 .314 .274
Kyle Kubitza 541 9.2% 34.4% .124 .312 .205 .283 .329 .276
Kaleb Cowart 528 7.0% 28.0% .101 .286 .211 .268 .312 .263
Taylor Featherston 400 5.0% 28.8% .116 .280 .209 .257 .325 .260
Matt Joyce 392 11.2% 23.7% .145 .270 .221 .314 .366 .302
Chad Hinshaw 435 6.4% 31.5% .092 .301 .205 .278 .297 .274
Wade Wass 292 7.5% 36.3% .134 .302 .199 .278 .333 .272
Conor Gillaspie 395 6.1% 17.2% .126 .282 .246 .294 .372 .287
David Murphy 405 6.7% 13.6% .129 .276 .255 .304 .384 .300
Kentrail Davis 356 7.9% 30.3% .081 .311 .214 .282 .295 .270
Ji-Man Choi 261 8.8% 20.3% .120 .284 .236 .312 .356 .297
Michael Strentz 235 4.7% 32.8% .108 .296 .206 .247 .314 .251
Gary Brown 535 4.3% 23.0% .097 .277 .220 .266 .317 .270
Nick Buss 460 5.2% 17.6% .097 .278 .238 .282 .335 .275
Luis Hernandez 185 3.8% 17.8% .058 .264 .221 .253 .279 .238
Stephen McGee 253 8.7% 27.7% .063 .271 .196 .274 .259 .247
Roger Kieschnick 427 5.6% 30.2% .135 .286 .214 .260 .349 .267
Andrew Brown 473 7.6% 31.7% .147 .272 .203 .269 .350 .272
Quintin Berry 413 9.0% 27.1% .054 .278 .201 .279 .255 .258
Alex Yarbrough 586 3.6% 27.0% .080 .300 .223 .251 .303 .244

***

Batters, Assorted Other
Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Mike Trout 688 9.0 174 -1 9.3 Mickey Mantle
Andrelton Simmons 590 4.0 89 16 3.7 Bucky Dent
Kole Calhoun 604 5.0 111 5 2.7 John Stone
Albert Pujols 602 5.6 123 4 2.7 Ernie Banks
Yunel Escobar 544 4.3 96 -4 1.6 Edgardo Alfonzo
Rafael Ortega 437 3.3 75 10 1.5 Evan Frey
David Freese 487 4.3 98 -4 1.4 Travis Fryman
Jett Bandy 345 3.5 82 1 1.3 Joe Depastino
Rey Navarro 489 3.5 82 4 1.1 Ray Navarrete
Carlos Perez 367 3.2 72 2 1.0 Wyatt Toregas
Shane Victorino 306 4.2 88 6 1.0 Dan Gladden
Craig Gentry 362 3.2 68 7 0.9 Greg Tubbs
Johnny Giavotella 528 4.0 88 -5 0.8 Rick Burleson
Geovany Soto 194 3.5 84 0 0.8 Ron Karkovice
Todd Cunningham 510 3.6 80 6 0.5 Skip Schumaker
Cliff Pennington 268 3.1 69 3 0.5 Brian Guinn
Daniel Nava 340 3.8 87 1 0.5 Stu Pederson
Jefry Marte 459 4.1 93 -9 0.4 Steve Buechele
David DeJesus 331 3.7 87 2 0.4 Mike Kingery
C.J. Cron 527 4.6 104 -4 0.4 Reggie Montgomery
Gregorio Petit 379 2.9 66 3 0.4 Kevin Baez
Juan Graterol 185 3.0 64 1 0.4 Raul Chavez
Sherman Johnson 548 3.1 71 -1 0.3 Mike Moriarty
Kyle Kubitza 541 3.1 74 -1 0.3 Randy Asadoor
Kaleb Cowart 528 2.9 65 4 0.2 Andy Sheets
Taylor Featherston 400 2.9 65 4 0.2 Trey Webb
Matt Joyce 392 3.9 93 -3 0.2 Mark Leonard
Chad Hinshaw 435 2.9 65 1 0.2 Steve Martin
Wade Wass 292 3.1 74 -7 0.0 Jason Dewey
Conor Gillaspie 395 3.8 88 -8 0.0 Greg Dobbs
David Murphy 405 4.1 95 -5 -0.1 Glenn Adams
Kentrail Davis 356 2.9 65 4 -0.3 Jason Maas
Ji-Man Choi 261 3.8 90 -3 -0.3 Bo Dodson
Michael Strentz 235 2.7 59 -5 -0.4 Matt Pagnozzi
Gary Brown 535 2.8 66 -2 -0.5 James Shanks
Nick Buss 460 3.4 75 -1 -0.6 Jose Macias
Luis Hernandez 185 2.3 52 -1 -0.6 Chris Petersen
Stephen McGee 253 2.3 53 -6 -0.6 Sean McCraw
Roger Kieschnick 427 3.1 72 0 -0.7 Justin Bowles
Andrew Brown 473 3.2 75 -3 -0.8 Chris Norton
Quintin Berry 413 2.8 54 -4 -1.4 Mike Murphy
Alex Yarbrough 586 2.6 57 -4 -1.5 Gary Miller-Jones

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats
Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER
Garrett Richards R 28 29 29 182.3 170 62 13 155 70 65
Andrew Heaney L 25 30 30 177.0 145 50 17 173 79 74
Hector Santiago L 28 31 27 153.3 134 61 17 143 70 65
Matt Shoemaker R 29 25 25 143.7 122 34 19 140 68 64
C.J. Wilson L 35 23 23 141.7 119 57 14 136 70 65
Nick Tropeano R 25 26 25 135.7 128 45 17 131 67 63
Mat Latos R 28 24 23 134.3 107 37 14 138 66 62
Tyler Skaggs L 24 15 15 92.7 72 34 8 92 45 42
Jered Weaver R 33 25 25 151.3 103 40 22 154 80 75
Joe Smith R 32 68 0 62.7 56 18 5 56 25 23
Huston Street R 32 58 0 55.7 53 16 6 49 22 21
Fernando Salas R 31 61 0 57.7 59 13 6 53 24 22
Al Alburquerque R 30 66 0 59.7 69 26 6 51 25 23
Cory Rasmus R 28 43 4 55.7 60 26 6 49 26 24
Cam Bedrosian R 24 60 0 68.3 78 33 6 60 30 28
Jose Alvarez L 27 65 0 67.7 61 23 6 63 30 28
Rob Rasmussen L 27 51 0 56.7 54 25 4 53 26 24
Mike Morin R 25 66 0 64.7 61 17 7 62 29 27
Greg Mahle L 23 43 0 51.0 46 17 5 49 24 22
Ryan Verdugo L 29 30 8 68.3 56 31 8 68 36 34
Deolis Guerra R 27 37 0 54.3 51 15 7 53 26 24
Jeremy McBryde R 29 58 0 60.3 56 24 6 57 29 27
Zach Stewart R 29 26 23 133.0 82 38 16 149 76 71
A.J. Achter R 27 52 0 71.3 65 23 10 68 35 33
Yunesky Maya R 34 18 17 97.3 61 34 12 109 58 54
Tyler DeLoach L 25 22 22 116.0 99 55 16 119 68 64
D.J. Johnson R 26 37 0 45.0 35 19 5 46 25 23
Ramon Ramirez R 34 28 0 34.0 28 17 4 35 19 18
Geoff Broussard R 25 36 0 53.7 44 17 8 56 30 28
Alex Sanabia R 27 23 16 97.7 59 32 14 111 60 56
Austin Adams R 25 39 0 48.7 50 46 4 43 29 27
Nate Smith L 24 22 22 117.3 82 45 19 128 74 69
Lucas Luetge L 29 44 0 61.7 48 27 9 64 36 34
Blayne Weller R 26 26 20 115.7 87 53 17 129 74 69
Kyle McGowin R 24 21 21 109.3 73 39 19 123 72 67

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages
Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Garrett Richards 182.3 764 22.3% 8.1% .277 3.21 3.27 84 84
Andrew Heaney 177.0 754 19.2% 6.6% .293 3.76 3.72 99 95
Hector Santiago 153.3 664 20.2% 9.2% .284 3.82 4.11 100 106
Matt Shoemaker 143.7 605 20.2% 5.6% .284 4.01 3.90 105 100
C.J. Wilson 141.7 618 19.3% 9.2% .290 4.13 4.02 108 103
Nick Tropeano 135.7 583 22.0% 7.7% .294 4.18 3.93 110 101
Mat Latos 134.3 578 18.5% 6.4% .298 4.15 3.74 109 96
Tyler Skaggs 92.7 404 17.8% 8.4% .294 4.08 3.87 107 99
Jered Weaver 151.3 648 15.9% 6.2% .278 4.46 4.57 117 117
Joe Smith 62.7 262 21.4% 6.9% .283 3.30 3.22 87 83
Huston Street 55.7 232 22.8% 6.9% .274 3.40 3.30 89 85
Fernando Salas 57.7 239 24.7% 5.4% .295 3.43 2.98 90 77
Al Alburquerque 59.7 256 26.9% 10.2% .294 3.47 3.36 91 86
Cory Rasmus 55.7 242 24.8% 10.7% .290 3.88 3.70 102 95
Cam Bedrosian 68.3 298 26.2% 11.1% .304 3.69 3.41 97 88
Jose Alvarez 67.7 289 21.1% 8.0% .294 3.72 3.52 98 90
Rob Rasmussen 56.7 248 21.8% 10.1% .302 3.81 3.60 100 92
Mike Morin 64.7 273 22.3% 6.2% .297 3.76 3.41 99 88
Greg Mahle 51.0 219 21.0% 7.8% .297 3.88 3.75 102 96
Ryan Verdugo 68.3 304 18.4% 10.2% .291 4.48 4.39 117 113
Deolis Guerra 54.3 231 22.1% 6.5% .297 3.98 3.84 104 99
Jeremy McBryde 60.3 262 21.4% 9.2% .295 4.03 3.74 106 96
Zach Stewart 133.0 586 14.0% 6.5% .300 4.80 4.45 126 114
A.J. Achter 71.3 305 21.3% 7.5% .284 4.16 4.16 109 107
Yunesky Maya 97.3 435 14.0% 7.8% .301 4.99 4.63 131 119
Tyler DeLoach 116.0 522 19.0% 10.5% .298 4.97 4.74 130 122
D.J. Johnson 45.0 200 17.5% 9.5% .297 4.60 4.39 121 113
Ramon Ramirez 34.0 154 18.2% 11.0% .301 4.76 4.66 125 120
Geoff Broussard 53.7 234 18.8% 7.3% .296 4.70 4.52 123 116
Alex Sanabia 97.7 436 13.5% 7.3% .297 5.16 4.87 135 125
Austin Adams 48.7 235 21.3% 19.6% .295 4.99 5.14 131 132
Nate Smith 117.3 525 15.6% 8.6% .292 5.29 5.12 139 131
Lucas Luetge 61.7 276 17.4% 9.8% .291 4.96 4.86 130 125
Blayne Weller 115.7 529 16.4% 10.0% .307 5.37 5.07 141 130
Kyle McGowin 109.3 490 14.9% 8.0% .295 5.52 5.26 145 135

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Garrett Richards 182.3 8.39 3.06 0.64 117 3.8 Jason Jennings
Andrew Heaney 177.0 7.37 2.54 0.86 99 2.3 Paul Maholm
Hector Santiago 153.3 7.87 3.58 1.00 98 1.8 Bob Ojeda
Matt Shoemaker 143.7 7.64 2.13 1.19 93 1.4 Oil Can Boyd
C.J. Wilson 141.7 7.56 3.62 0.89 91 1.2 Tim Leary
Nick Tropeano 135.7 8.49 2.98 1.13 89 1.0 Scott Sanders
Mat Latos 134.3 7.17 2.48 0.94 90 1.0 Mike Scott
Tyler Skaggs 92.7 6.99 3.30 0.78 92 0.8 Brian Bohanon
Jered Weaver 151.3 6.13 2.38 1.31 84 0.6 Ken Schrom
Joe Smith 62.7 8.04 2.58 0.72 113 0.6 Warren Brusstar
Huston Street 55.7 8.56 2.59 0.97 110 0.4 Mark Williamson
Fernando Salas 57.7 9.20 2.03 0.94 109 0.4 John Wasdin
Al Alburquerque 59.7 10.40 3.92 0.90 108 0.4 Frank LaCorte
Cory Rasmus 55.7 9.69 4.20 0.97 96 0.3 Johnny Ruffin
Cam Bedrosian 68.3 10.28 4.35 0.79 101 0.2 Jeff Innis
Jose Alvarez 67.7 8.11 3.06 0.80 100 0.2 Randy Choate
Rob Rasmussen 56.7 8.57 3.97 0.63 98 0.1 Brian Snyder
Mike Morin 64.7 8.49 2.36 0.97 100 0.1 Carl Schramm
Greg Mahle 51.0 8.12 3.00 0.88 96 0.1 Andy Paul
Ryan Verdugo 68.3 7.38 4.08 1.05 84 0.0 Scott Forster
Deolis Guerra 54.3 8.45 2.49 1.16 94 0.0 Joel Peralta
Jeremy McBryde 60.3 8.36 3.58 0.90 93 -0.1 Doug Robertson
Zach Stewart 133.0 5.55 2.57 1.08 78 -0.2 Jim Magrane
A.J. Achter 71.3 8.20 2.90 1.26 90 -0.2 Justin Speier
Yunesky Maya 97.3 5.64 3.14 1.11 75 -0.3 Paul Abbott
Tyler DeLoach 116.0 7.68 4.27 1.24 75 -0.3 Bill Murphy
D.J. Johnson 45.0 7.00 3.80 1.00 81 -0.4 Mark Zamarripa
Ramon Ramirez 34.0 7.41 4.50 1.06 78 -0.4 Archie Corbin
Geoff Broussard 53.7 7.37 2.85 1.34 80 -0.6 Julio Mateo
Alex Sanabia 97.7 5.44 2.95 1.29 72 -0.6 Scott Shoemaker
Austin Adams 48.7 9.24 8.50 0.74 75 -0.7 Bill Bene
Nate Smith 117.3 6.29 3.45 1.46 71 -0.8 Jeff Hundley
Lucas Luetge 61.7 7.00 3.94 1.31 75 -0.9 Chris Michalak
Blayne Weller 115.7 6.77 4.12 1.32 70 -0.9 Lee Rodney
Kyle McGowin 109.3 6.01 3.21 1.56 68 -1.1 Jim Blueberg

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2016. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.



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Carson Cistulli has just published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.


Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
lipitorkid
Member
lipitorkid
3 months 21 days ago

I thought David Freese was a free agent.

lipitorkid
Member
lipitorkid
3 months 21 days ago

I also thought Shane Victorino was a free agent.

The Ghost of Johnny Dickshot
Member
The Ghost of Johnny Dickshot
3 months 21 days ago

Why does this question get asked EVERY FREAKING TIME ZiPS are posted??@!?! GAAHHHHHH!!!!

Tom Dooley
Member
Tom Dooley
3 months 21 days ago

“I can’t read or write.”

rpmcsweeney
Member
rpmcsweeney
3 months 21 days ago

Hey, everybody—check out Mike Trout’s comp!

KCDaveInLA
Member
KCDaveInLA
3 months 21 days ago

If he were alive, the Mick would be blushing.

lipitorkid
Member
lipitorkid
3 months 21 days ago

I’m more impressed by Matt Shoemakers comp.

tz
Member
tz
3 months 21 days ago

Lol, Shoemaker doesn’t exactly strike me as a wild and crazy guy.

Chad Hinshaw, on the other hand….

wily mo
Member
3 months 21 days ago

so, who’s better, mickey mantle or ted williams

JediHoyer
Member
JediHoyer
3 months 20 days ago

If only the rest of the angels had comps from the micks team

Hutch
Member
Hutch
3 months 21 days ago

Not a very good team, IMO.

The Ghost of Johnny Dickshot
Member
The Ghost of Johnny Dickshot
3 months 21 days ago

Can a team be considered a serious contender with a “0” at a premier power position?

Bip
Member
Member
Bip
3 months 20 days ago

Mike Trout could turn two 0’s into 3’s and still be a 3 himself.

Owen S
Member
Owen S
3 months 21 days ago

What makes you think having a 0 WAR first baseman is any more detrimental than having a 0 WAR SS or LFer or DH? And since when does one hole destine a team for failure? Does one star destine a team for success? Because if so, the Angels are simultaneously screwed and a post-season lock.

The Ghost of Johnny Dickshot
Member
The Ghost of Johnny Dickshot
3 months 21 days ago

“What makes you think having a 0 WAR first baseman is any more
detrimental than having a 0 WAR SS or LFer or DH?”

Do I really need to explain this?

TheGrandslamwich
Member
TheGrandslamwich
3 months 21 days ago

You can try but you most likely won’t come off as intelligent while doing it.

Chip Locke
Member
Chip Locke
3 months 21 days ago

I, for one, am excited to read his attempt.

Los
Member
Los
3 months 21 days ago

Yes. Pirates had the second best record in baseball with below replacement production at 1b. Cardinals had the best record with a whole .2 WAR at 1b.

BlueBlooded
Member
BlueBlooded
3 months 21 days ago

The 2016 Angels: Star and Scrubs.

troybruno
Member
Member
troybruno
3 months 21 days ago

you forgot one in between… the name for a once-powerful star which is slowly exhausting its primary energy source: Red Giant

Robert L
Member
Robert L
3 months 20 days ago

I mean if you’re going to steal a joke it probably shouldn’t be from the managing editor of the site you’re posting on

jmsdean477
Member
jmsdean477
3 months 21 days ago

Not enough pitching, nuff said!

rustydude
Member
rustydude
3 months 20 days ago

Hey, but at least Angels fans can take solace that they’re not paying the luxury tax.

wily mo
Member
3 months 20 days ago

so rey navarro comps to ray navarrete, huh. nice algorithm

tz
Member
tz
3 months 20 days ago

That’s nothing.

Check out Baseball Reference’s top 10 similarity scores for former M’s/Giants/Rockies pitcher Bill Swift:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/friv/scomp_pitch.cgi?I=swiftbi02:Bill Swift&st=career&compage=&age=

Robert L
Member
Robert L
3 months 20 days ago

ZiPS and Steamer (9.3 and 9.0 WAR) are actually higher on Trout than the fans (8.5) Of course the difference of 0.5-0.8 isn’t that great, just found it funny.

pitnick
Member
pitnick
3 months 20 days ago

“Add in a little more than two wins’ worth of replacement value and the result is an 8.0-9.0 WAR forecast”

I’m missing something obvious, I’m sure, but isn’t replacement value necessarily 0? Where do those two wins come from?

Bip
Member
Member
Bip
3 months 20 days ago

Because he started by listing Trout’s run values above average, not above replacement.

pitnick
Member
pitnick
3 months 20 days ago

Ah.

jruby
Member
Member
jruby
3 months 20 days ago

Andrelton F*cking Simmons!

tz
Member
tz
3 months 20 days ago

Lol, now I’m wondering what 2016 pitcher has Mike Torrez for a comp.

Jason B
Member
Jason B
3 months 20 days ago

Kyle Kubitza’s comp:

Randy: “Whatzat? Zat a window?”
Chris: “No, Randy Asadoor.”

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