2016 ZiPS Projections – Los Angeles Dodgers

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago NL / Cincinnati / Cleveland / Houston / Kansas City / Minnesota / New York AL / New York NL / Philadelphia / Pittsburgh / San Diego / Seattle / Texas / Toronto.

Batters
It’s not particularly common for one of the strongest teams in the majors to acquire a new best position player. Theoretically, such a club already features an assortment of talented players; otherwise, it wouldn’t have been one of the strongest teams in the majors. And yet, this is effectively what the Dodgers — who recorded the third-best Base Runs record in the league last year — it’s effectively what they’ll have done by deploying Corey Seager (643 PA, 3.9 zWAR) as their opening-day shortstop this spring. A projection represents an attempt to estimate a player’s true-talent level. Seager’s true talent appears to be more talented than everyone else’s.

There’s some uncertainty at the moment regarding new manager Dave Roberts‘ plans for the outfield. According to Dan Szymborski’s computer, allowing Joc Pederson (571 PA, 3.1 zWAR) to retain his starting center-field role would be part of the club’s optimal arrangement. As for second base, there doesn’t appear to be an optimal arrangement yet: both Enrique Hernandez (437 PA, 1.3 zWAR) and Chase Utley (464 PA, 1.1 zWAR) receive rather modest forecasts.

Pitchers
A haphazard inspection of the first 18 ZiPS posts to have been released thus far reveals that the top pitching projection — up to this point — belongs to Cubs right-hander Jake Arrieta (186.1 IP, 5.4 zWAR). Clayton Kershaw (215.0 IP, 7.8 zWAR) appears now to have surpassed that by more than two wins. One could occupy much of the day — or at least a longer-than-average lunch break — by devising superlatives for Kershaw and his (currently only hypothetical) 2016 season. Here’s one, though: Kershaw is forecast to produce a park-adjusted ERA and FIP marks roughly 10% better than Craig Kimbrel (whose forecast for 65 ERA- and 67 FIP-, compared to Kershaw’s 54 ERA- and 55 FIP-).

Also of note among the club’s starters is the prognosis for the newly acquired Kenta Maeda (177.0 IP, 3.4 zWAR). Despite what is generally regarded as merely averege arm speed — and despite having recorded numbers inferior to Yu Darvish and Masahiro Tanaka‘s during their own respective NPB careers — Maeda nevertheless appears capable of serving as the club’s No. 2 starter, in terms of outcomes if not necessarily by name.

As for the bullpen, it appears to be an average unit, one which — for a club that has designs on a championship — would benefit from a new piece or two.

Bench/Prospects
As noted above, the club’s top prospect is also quite possibly its best position player. After Seager, catcher/maybe second baseman Austin Barnes (466 PA, 2.3 zWAR) also offers considerable promise. Omitted entirely from the depth-chart image below is Carl Crawford (309 PA, 0.7 zWAR), who profiles merely as a competent bench player now, rendering him less encouraging in that regard than even Trayce Thompson (577 PA, 1.9 zWAR). Among rookie-eligible pitchers, right-hander Zach Lee (128.2 IP, 1.5 zWAR) is forecast to provide the greatest production, while Jose De Leon (102.2 IP, 1.2 zWAR) and Julio Urias (87.1 IP, 1.1 zWAR) also profile as league-average starters already on a per-inning basis.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Dodgers, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Dodgers Depth Chart

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats
Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Corey Seager L 22 SS 643 80 158 38 5 20 87 5 1
Yasiel Puig R 25 RF 569 75 140 28 7 19 75 9 8
Joc Pederson L 24 CF 571 70 106 18 3 23 62 12 7
Yasmani Grandal B 27 C 381 44 75 15 1 14 50 1 0
Justin Turner R 31 3B 345 40 91 22 1 9 44 4 1
Adrian Gonzalez L 34 1B 597 70 145 31 0 22 97 1 1
Austin Barnes R 26 C 466 53 102 19 3 10 48 6 2
Howie Kendrick R 32 2B 545 64 145 26 4 9 62 8 3
Scott Van Slyke R 29 LF 307 33 68 16 1 10 40 4 2
Trayce Thompson R 25 CF 577 68 120 28 6 18 67 12 4
Jimmy Rollins B 37 SS 510 66 110 21 4 13 46 14 6
Alex Verdugo L 20 CF 542 59 138 28 3 12 61 9 3
Andre Ethier L 34 RF 437 46 103 21 4 10 54 2 2
A.J. Ellis R 35 C 304 27 59 11 1 7 32 0 1
Enrique Hernandez R 24 2B 437 48 104 20 3 10 43 3 3
Chase Utley L 37 2B 464 48 98 25 4 8 52 5 0
Carl Crawford L 34 LF 309 41 78 14 3 6 33 11 3
Micah Johnson L 25 2B 502 56 115 18 5 8 44 25 11
Alex Guerrero R 29 2B 390 45 89 15 2 12 53 2 2
Kyle Farmer R 25 C 405 36 93 23 3 2 37 4 3
Willie Calhoun L 21 2B 379 43 89 20 0 9 42 1 1
Cody Bellinger L 20 1B 450 55 88 20 3 17 60 6 1
Charlie Culberson R 27 3B 248 22 53 11 3 6 27 5 3
Elliot Johnson B 32 SS 262 25 51 11 3 3 22 8 2
Alberto Callaspo B 33 3B 369 33 81 13 0 5 34 0 1
Alex Hassan R 28 LF 389 40 89 21 1 5 35 1 1
Johan Mieses R 20 CF 429 45 90 24 3 12 50 9 6
Shawn Zarraga B 27 C 230 21 54 11 0 1 17 0 2
Nate Samson R 28 SS 149 14 33 7 0 1 11 3 3
Rico Noel R 27 CF 347 36 66 9 2 0 19 29 10
Mike Carp L 30 1B 135 14 28 7 1 3 20 1 1
Lars Anderson L 28 1B 395 37 76 19 1 7 36 1 1
Jarek Cunningham R 26 3B 388 36 67 15 4 10 38 3 3
Daniel Mayora R 30 3B 426 37 95 17 1 4 35 4 3
Jose Tabata R 27 RF 370 35 86 16 3 3 31 3 4
Erisbel Arruebarrena R 26 SS 251 20 46 8 1 4 20 2 0
Julio Morban L 24 RF 275 26 54 11 3 4 24 2 1
Jacob Scavuzzo R 22 LF 504 53 105 24 3 12 53 8 5
Donavan Tate R 25 CF 319 29 50 9 2 3 22 7 6

***

Batters, Rates and Averages
Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA
Corey Seager 643 5.8% 19.9% .181 .305 .266 .311 .447 .326
Yasiel Puig 569 9.0% 20.9% .195 .326 .276 .350 .471 .360
Joc Pederson 571 14.0% 30.3% .194 .289 .220 .337 .414 .335
Yasmani Grandal 381 14.2% 23.9% .183 .277 .233 .344 .416 .332
Justin Turner 345 7.2% 16.5% .166 .333 .294 .358 .460 .355
Adrian Gonzalez 597 8.2% 17.6% .180 .294 .270 .330 .450 .329
Austin Barnes 466 7.9% 16.5% .132 .275 .244 .311 .376 .303
Howie Kendrick 545 5.3% 16.1% .121 .329 .285 .328 .406 .319
Scott Van Slyke 307 10.4% 25.1% .179 .317 .255 .340 .434 .339
Trayce Thompson 577 6.1% 28.8% .176 .290 .226 .277 .402 .299
Jimmy Rollins 510 8.2% 16.1% .147 .261 .237 .299 .384 .307
Alex Verdugo 542 3.7% 14.4% .136 .294 .267 .298 .403 .307
Andre Ethier 437 9.2% 18.5% .151 .309 .264 .339 .415 .327
A.J. Ellis 304 12.5% 18.8% .131 .265 .229 .332 .360 .302
Enrique Hernandez 437 5.7% 17.2% .139 .292 .257 .303 .396 .306
Chase Utley 464 6.9% 14.4% .137 .259 .236 .302 .373 .289
Carl Crawford 309 4.9% 16.5% .131 .308 .270 .311 .401 .318
Micah Johnson 502 5.6% 21.3% .113 .305 .248 .292 .361 .301
Alex Guerrero 390 5.4% 17.4% .152 .272 .247 .296 .399 .305
Kyle Farmer 405 3.7% 19.8% .092 .301 .244 .281 .336 .274
Willie Calhoun 379 6.6% 16.4% .133 .284 .254 .303 .387 .304
Cody Bellinger 450 6.9% 32.9% .187 .283 .214 .269 .401 .291
Charlie Culberson 248 3.2% 25.4% .150 .281 .226 .256 .376 .276
Elliot Johnson 262 6.9% 26.3% .108 .284 .213 .269 .321 .265
Alberto Callaspo 369 9.2% 11.1% .085 .264 .245 .313 .330 .285
Alex Hassan 389 7.5% 23.4% .107 .321 .251 .308 .358 .294
Johan Mieses 429 4.7% 28.0% .164 .286 .223 .262 .387 .289
Shawn Zarraga 230 7.0% 16.5% .067 .310 .260 .316 .327 .284
Nate Samson 149 6.0% 17.4% .073 .288 .241 .291 .314 .279
Rico Noel 347 7.2% 28.2% .042 .308 .213 .281 .255 .267
Mike Carp 135 7.4% 25.9% .147 .294 .230 .296 .377 .300
Lars Anderson 395 9.6% 24.6% .119 .275 .216 .294 .335 .278
Jarek Cunningham 388 5.9% 35.1% .149 .270 .189 .245 .338 .257
Daniel Mayora 426 4.2% 19.2% .078 .287 .239 .274 .317 .261
Jose Tabata 370 5.9% 14.3% .091 .291 .254 .307 .345 .293
Erisbel Arruebarrena 251 4.0% 39.0% .093 .307 .194 .228 .287 .227
Julio Morban 275 5.5% 36.0% .113 .323 .211 .255 .324 .253
Jacob Scavuzzo 504 4.6% 28.0% .140 .289 .222 .264 .362 .278
Donavan Tate 319 7.5% 38.9% .076 .285 .172 .241 .248 .234

***

Batters, Assorted Other
Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Corey Seager 643 5.2 111 0 3.9 Cal Ripken
Yasiel Puig 569 6.0 129 2 3.5 Johnny Callison
Joc Pederson 571 4.8 111 -1 3.1 Adam Dunn
Yasmani Grandal 381 5.1 113 1 3.0 Mickey Tettleton
Justin Turner 345 6.4 128 1 2.8 Jeff Cirillo
Adrian Gonzalez 597 5.5 117 6 2.5 Harold Baines
Austin Barnes 466 4.2 93 0 2.3 Al Lopez
Howie Kendrick 545 5.1 105 -3 2.3 Mark Loretta
Scott Van Slyke 307 5.4 117 8 2.2 Benny Agbayani
Trayce Thompson 577 4.0 88 3 1.9 Shawn Garrett
Jimmy Rollins 510 4.1 91 -4 1.5 Ray Durham
Alex Verdugo 542 4.5 95 -4 1.5 Ryan Sweeney
Andre Ethier 437 5.1 111 -1 1.4 Bruce Campbell
A.J. Ellis 304 4.1 95 -3 1.3 Rick Dempsey
Enrique Hernandez 437 4.3 95 -1 1.3 Jose Vidro
Chase Utley 464 4.1 89 0 1.1 Ray Durham
Carl Crawford 309 4.8 99 0 0.7 Milt Thompson
Micah Johnson 502 3.9 83 -3 0.7 Royce Clayton
Alex Guerrero 390 4.2 94 -6 0.6 Tracy Woodson
Kyle Farmer 405 3.3 73 -3 0.6 Joe Girardi
Willie Calhoun 379 4.2 93 -7 0.4 Willy Aybar
Cody Bellinger 450 3.8 86 4 0.3 Brian Dubose
Charlie Culberson 248 3.3 75 2 0.3 Keith Johnson
Elliot Johnson 262 3.1 66 1 0.3 Pablo Martinez
Alberto Callaspo 369 3.6 82 -4 0.2 Rico Rossy
Alex Hassan 389 4.0 87 -1 0.1 Russ Morman
Johan Mieses 429 3.5 80 -4 0.1 Mitch Einertson
Shawn Zarraga 230 3.6 82 -6 0.1 Jerry Grote
Nate Samson 149 3.0 71 -2 -0.1 Kent Anderson
Rico Noel 347 2.8 53 3 -0.1 Scott Loucks
Mike Carp 135 3.8 88 -1 -0.2 Simon Pond
Lars Anderson 395 3.4 77 3 -0.3 Howard Prager
Jarek Cunningham 388 2.7 62 0 -0.4 Duane Thielen
Daniel Mayora 426 3.0 66 -1 -0.4 Brian Barden
Jose Tabata 370 3.7 84 -4 -0.4 Brian Horwitz
Erisbel Arruebarrena 251 2.3 44 -3 -0.9 Luis Cotto
Julio Morban 275 2.8 62 -2 -1.0 Dickens Benoit
Jacob Scavuzzo 504 3.3 74 -4 -1.0 Ed Smith
Donavan Tate 319 1.8 39 2 -1.1 Keith Eaddy

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats
Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER
Clayton Kershaw L 28 31 31 215.0 265 41 14 156 51 48
Kenta Maeda R 28 26 26 177.0 162 42 15 162 67 63
Scott Kazmir L 32 29 29 168.0 162 45 17 150 67 63
Hyun-Jin Ryu L 29 22 22 125.3 105 29 11 122 52 49
Alex Wood L 25 35 27 168.3 139 49 15 165 75 70
Mike Bolsinger R 28 26 25 143.0 134 52 14 135 65 61
Zach Lee R 24 23 23 128.7 93 21 12 131 58 54
Kenley Jansen R 28 66 0 63.7 96 15 6 45 17 16
Brett Anderson L 28 19 19 110.7 81 28 9 112 49 46
Jose De Leon R 23 21 20 102.7 122 35 14 89 46 43
Julio Urias L 19 18 18 87.3 86 31 8 80 39 36
Yimi Garcia R 25 62 0 71.3 83 17 8 59 26 24
Jharel Cotton R 24 22 14 100.3 98 34 14 96 50 47
Brandon McCarthy R 32 12 12 69.7 54 15 9 71 34 32
Carlos Frias R 26 29 20 123.0 82 36 12 130 63 59
Chris Hatcher R 31 59 0 60.3 67 16 6 53 24 22
Frankie Montas R 23 61 0 57.7 61 23 5 50 24 22
J.P. Howell L 33 63 0 46.7 43 18 4 41 18 17
Pedro Baez R 28 59 0 59.7 60 16 6 54 25 23
Jacob Rhame R 23 50 0 60.3 66 19 7 54 26 24
Adam Liberatore L 29 54 0 55.7 55 20 5 50 24 22
Jeremy Kehrt R 30 24 16 99.3 62 26 11 107 52 49
David Huff L 31 33 6 73.3 55 18 9 75 36 34
Joel Peralta R 40 44 0 40.0 40 10 5 37 18 17
Matt West R 27 41 0 61.3 57 18 7 58 28 26
Luis Avilan L 26 77 0 58.3 44 21 5 56 27 25
Chris Anderson R 23 22 21 104.0 89 55 11 103 57 53
Mike Adams R 37 22 0 19.3 18 7 2 18 9 8
Juan Jaime R 28 44 0 45.0 57 34 4 36 20 19
Ross Stripling R 26 19 17 96.7 70 33 11 101 54 50
Ian Thomas L 29 34 7 68.7 66 26 9 66 35 33
Ramon Troncoso R 33 33 1 42.7 28 13 4 43 20 19
Ryan Dennick L 29 57 0 56.3 43 17 6 56 27 25
Brandon League R 33 36 0 36.7 24 12 3 38 18 17
Eric Stults L 36 24 23 136.0 89 33 18 147 76 71
Scott Baker R 34 16 12 72.0 51 14 12 75 41 38
Brandon Beachy R 29 11 11 51.7 39 23 7 53 30 28
Dustin Richardson L 32 21 4 39.0 33 19 4 38 21 20
Adrian Salcedo R 25 27 2 48.3 40 19 6 49 26 24
Chin-hui Tsao R 35 35 0 45.0 48 15 7 43 24 22
Josh Ravin R 28 34 0 38.7 39 22 5 37 21 20
Logan Bawcom R 27 46 0 67.0 49 27 7 68 36 34
Daniel Corcino R 25 18 15 81.3 59 48 15 88 59 55

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages
Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Clayton Kershaw 215.0 842 31.5% 4.9% .274 2.01 2.14 54 55
Kenta Maeda 177.0 735 22.0% 5.7% .290 3.20 3.28 85 85
Scott Kazmir 168.0 699 23.2% 6.4% .284 3.37 3.46 90 89
Hyun-Jin Ryu 125.3 527 19.9% 5.5% .292 3.52 3.32 94 86
Alex Wood 168.3 719 19.3% 6.8% .294 3.74 3.58 100 92
Mike Bolsinger 143.0 616 21.8% 8.4% .294 3.84 3.72 102 96
Zach Lee 128.7 538 17.3% 3.9% .292 3.78 3.54 101 91
Kenley Jansen 63.7 251 38.2% 6.0% .295 2.26 2.13 60 55
Brett Anderson 110.7 472 17.2% 5.9% .292 3.74 3.49 100 90
Jose De Leon 102.7 432 28.2% 8.1% .294 3.77 3.73 100 96
Julio Urias 87.3 373 23.1% 8.3% .295 3.71 3.59 99 93
Yimi Garcia 71.3 290 28.6% 5.9% .285 3.03 3.13 81 81
Jharel Cotton 100.3 431 22.7% 7.9% .293 4.22 4.19 112 108
Brandon McCarthy 69.7 295 18.3% 5.1% .290 4.13 4.02 110 104
Carlos Frias 123.0 535 15.3% 6.7% .295 4.32 4.07 115 105
Chris Hatcher 60.3 250 26.8% 6.4% .296 3.28 3.03 87 78
Frankie Montas 57.7 246 24.8% 9.3% .292 3.43 3.47 91 90
J.P. Howell 46.7 199 21.6% 9.0% .278 3.28 3.59 87 93
Pedro Baez 59.7 249 24.1% 6.4% .289 3.47 3.26 92 84
Jacob Rhame 60.3 254 26.0% 7.5% .296 3.58 3.48 95 90
Adam Liberatore 55.7 237 23.2% 8.4% .290 3.56 3.43 95 89
Jeremy Kehrt 99.3 431 14.4% 6.0% .294 4.44 4.23 118 109
David Huff 73.3 313 17.6% 5.8% .291 4.17 4.12 111 106
Joel Peralta 40.0 167 24.0% 6.0% .286 3.82 3.46 102 89
Matt West 61.3 260 21.9% 6.9% .292 3.82 3.82 102 99
Luis Avilan 58.3 252 17.5% 8.3% .285 3.86 3.80 103 98
Chris Anderson 104.0 470 18.9% 11.7% .298 4.59 4.59 122 118
Mike Adams 19.3 83 21.7% 8.4% .291 3.72 3.89 99 100
Juan Jaime 45.0 205 27.8% 16.6% .296 3.80 4.12 101 106
Ross Stripling 96.7 424 16.5% 7.8% .296 4.66 4.37 124 113
Ian Thomas 68.7 298 22.1% 8.7% .294 4.33 4.17 115 108
Ramon Troncoso 42.7 184 15.2% 7.1% .284 4.01 4.05 107 105
Ryan Dennick 56.3 242 17.8% 7.0% .289 3.99 3.98 106 103
Brandon League 36.7 160 15.0% 7.5% .294 4.17 3.90 111 101
Eric Stults 136.0 588 15.1% 5.6% .290 4.70 4.32 125 112
Scott Baker 72.0 305 16.7% 4.6% .280 4.75 4.58 127 118
Brandon Beachy 51.7 231 16.9% 10.0% .287 4.88 4.81 130 124
Dustin Richardson 39.0 174 19.0% 10.9% .293 4.62 4.42 123 114
Adrian Salcedo 48.3 213 18.8% 8.9% .297 4.47 4.43 119 114
Chin-hui Tsao 45.0 193 24.9% 7.8% .298 4.40 4.05 117 105
Josh Ravin 38.7 175 22.3% 12.6% .302 4.66 4.76 124 123
Logan Bawcom 67.0 296 16.6% 9.1% .290 4.57 4.40 122 114
Daniel Corcino 81.3 380 15.5% 12.6% .289 6.09 6.07 162 157

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Clayton Kershaw 215.0 11.09 1.72 0.59 181 7.8 Sandy Koufax
Kenta Maeda 177.0 8.24 2.14 0.76 113 3.4 Brad Penny
Scott Kazmir 168.0 8.68 2.41 0.91 108 2.9 Kenny Rogers
Hyun-Jin Ryu 125.3 7.54 2.08 0.79 103 2.0 Chris Hammond
Alex Wood 168.3 7.43 2.62 0.80 97 1.9 Terry Mulholland
Mike Bolsinger 143.0 8.43 3.27 0.88 95 1.6 Brett Laxton
Zach Lee 128.7 6.50 1.47 0.84 96 1.5 Dave Telgheder
Kenley Jansen 63.7 13.56 2.12 0.85 160 1.4 Trevor Hoffman
Brett Anderson 110.7 6.59 2.28 0.73 97 1.4 Mark Redman
Jose De Leon 102.7 10.69 3.07 1.23 96 1.2 Rocky Coppinger
Julio Urias 87.3 8.87 3.20 0.82 98 1.1 Jon Lester
Yimi Garcia 71.3 10.48 2.15 1.01 120 0.8 Pat Neshek
Jharel Cotton 100.3 8.79 3.05 1.26 86 0.5 Johan Lopez
Brandon McCarthy 69.7 6.97 1.94 1.16 88 0.5 Cy Blanton
Carlos Frias 123.0 6.00 2.63 0.88 84 0.5 Jake Joseph
Chris Hatcher 60.3 10.00 2.39 0.90 111 0.5 Xavier Hernandez
Frankie Montas 57.7 9.51 3.59 0.78 106 0.3 Francisco Cordero
J.P. Howell 46.7 8.29 3.47 0.77 111 0.3 Bill Kennedy
Pedro Baez 59.7 9.05 2.41 0.90 105 0.3 Joel Peralta
Jacob Rhame 60.3 9.85 2.84 1.04 101 0.2 Mark Worrell
Adam Liberatore 55.7 8.89 3.23 0.81 102 0.2 Matt Whisenant
Jeremy Kehrt 99.3 5.62 2.36 1.00 82 0.2 Steve Comer
David Huff 73.3 6.75 2.21 1.11 87 0.1 Jamie Walker
Joel Peralta 40.0 9.00 2.25 1.13 95 0.1 Dennis Eckersley
Matt West 61.3 8.37 2.64 1.03 95 0.1 Lee Gardner
Luis Avilan 58.3 6.79 3.24 0.77 94 0.0 Pete Cappadona
Chris Anderson 104.0 7.70 4.76 0.95 79 0.0 Ben Hendrickson
Mike Adams 19.3 8.39 3.26 0.93 97 0.0 Chi-Chi Olivo
Juan Jaime 45.0 11.40 6.80 0.80 96 0.0 Eric Cammack
Ross Stripling 96.7 6.51 3.07 1.02 78 0.0 Kane Davis
Ian Thomas 68.7 8.65 3.41 1.18 84 0.0 Jake Benz
Ramon Troncoso 42.7 5.90 2.74 0.84 91 -0.1 Jim Coates
Ryan Dennick 56.3 6.87 2.72 0.96 91 -0.1 Mark Watson
Brandon League 36.7 5.89 2.94 0.74 87 -0.1 Milo Candini
Eric Stults 136.0 5.89 2.18 1.19 77 -0.1 Chris Michalak
Scott Baker 72.0 6.38 1.75 1.50 76 -0.1 Jeff Harris
Brandon Beachy 51.7 6.79 4.00 1.22 74 -0.1 Carlos Chantres
Dustin Richardson 39.0 7.62 4.38 0.92 79 -0.2 Eddie Oropesa
Adrian Salcedo 48.3 7.45 3.54 1.12 81 -0.2 Mark Hampton
Chin-hui Tsao 45.0 9.60 3.00 1.40 82 -0.3 Scott Service
Josh Ravin 38.7 9.07 5.12 1.16 78 -0.4 Bart Evans
Logan Bawcom 67.0 6.58 3.63 0.94 79 -0.7 Marty McLeary
Daniel Corcino 81.3 6.53 5.31 1.66 60 -1.6 Kerry Burchett

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2016. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.



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Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
TwinPeaks
Member
TwinPeaks
4 months 13 days ago

Kinda weird that Kike’s projection actually got worse (barely) after last year.

Bip
Member
Member
Bip
4 months 12 days ago

I think some systems are really rosy on him. I’m curious why ZiPS is so pessimistic. Maybe it’s the not-great BB and K rates, and high BABIP. Kind of the opposite of his 2014, in which he was also an above average hitter, but due to good K and BB rates and a bad BABIP.

Schmidt Happens
Member
Schmidt Happens
4 months 13 days ago

“Corey, looks like your No. 1 Comp is the greatest SS to ever play the game. But, hey … no pressure.”

The Ghost of Johnny Dickshot
Member
The Ghost of Johnny Dickshot
4 months 13 days ago

I know right, I saw that and let out an audible “WHOA!”

@3_2count
Member
Member
4 months 13 days ago

Well, one of the greatest.

yinkadoubledare
Member
yinkadoubledare
4 months 13 days ago

Joc Pederson’s comp is Adam Dunn, but is it Adam C. Dunn, or Adam G. Dunn?

Dee P. Gordon
Member
4 months 12 days ago

I think G is the one who won the Gold Glove. Could be wrong though, I was in traction when the awards were officially announced.

hobbes020
Member
hobbes020
4 months 13 days ago

The Joc comp to Adam Dunn made me chuckle. We know Dunn can pitch, now maybe they can coax him out of retirement to man CF. He’s a creature of sublime grace.

redsox1
Member
redsox1
4 months 13 days ago

Interesting that Montas is already being projected as a reliever

Curious Gorge
Member
Curious Gorge
4 months 12 days ago

it was the same way in chicago

bawfuls
Member
bawfuls
4 months 13 days ago

So… any particular reason that free agent Howie Kendrick is listed in these projections?

bawfuls
Member
bawfuls
4 months 12 days ago

and Jimmy Rollins too for that matter

raygu
Member
4 months 12 days ago

neither has signed and the last team they played for was…….

Tom Dooley
Member
Tom Dooley
4 months 12 days ago

RTFA.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

J2butter
Member
J2butter
4 months 12 days ago

So if Zach Lee were to make 25+ starts, he’d most likely have a better season than Cole Hamels, Masahiro Tanaka, Hisashi Iwakuma, John Lackey, Johnny Cueto, James Shields, Luis Severino, Kyle Hendricks, Eduardo Rodriguez, Yordano Ventura, Rick Porcello, Andrew Cashner, Kevin Gausman, Wei-Yin Chen and Shelby Miller?

Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight

wily mo
Member
4 months 12 days ago

*combined*

Bip
Member
Member
Bip
4 months 12 days ago

Where are you getting that from? Hamels is projected for 150% more WAR in 50% more innings. Shelby Miller is projected for 100% more WAR in 50% more innings. I’m not going to bother to check the rest.

Ivan_Grushenko
Member
Ivan_Grushenko
4 months 12 days ago

Is Alex Wood injured? Why wouldn’t he on the diamond thingy someplace?

Bip
Member
Member
Bip
4 months 12 days ago

bc the diamond thingy shows 5 starters, the most likely relievers, and the starting position players. Wood will likely make starts since he’s 6th on the rotation depth chart, but that guy doesn’t get a place on the diamond thingy.

Ivan_Grushenko
Member
Ivan_Grushenko
4 months 12 days ago

Also why are so many pitchers expected to underperform FIP? Bad defense? Batted Ball Types?

wily mo
Member
4 months 12 days ago

re: mccarthy’s comp: i know joe blanton didn’t really have the kind of career you would have expected from reading moneyball, but calling him “cy blanton” just seems needlessly sarcastic

Jetsy Extrano
Member
Jetsy Extrano
4 months 12 days ago

Jeff Cirillo? Sick burn.

Herm Winningham
Member
Member
Herm Winningham
4 months 12 days ago

Looks like they’ll be choosing between Trevor Hoffman and Dennis Eckersley to close out games.

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